politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For Politicalbetting’s 15th anniversary today – a special cart
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Heartiest congratulations on 15 years!
As in most things, I feel like a relative newbie, but have certainly been lurking since well before the 2010 election (“F5 F5 F5 has he gone yet”). So at nearly a decade in, I’ve been around a bit!
I’ve just checked and I didn’t actually sign up until 2014... probably to get stuck in to the 2015 election - at which I made my only ever political bet.. a tenner on Labour. That taught me.
I’ve felt myself getting more prolific, if no more persuasive, during the current unpleasantness!
As I’ve said before, it’s (usually) a far more civilised and (always) far better informed than any discussion on social media, and while most of us don’t have a direct inside track, there’s enough wisdom possessed and shared to add to most posters’ knowledge of what’s going on.
Thanks Mike, Robert (and TSE and many others) - long may it continue.0 -
My life and my bank account is richer for it.AlastairMeeks said:Congratulations Mike. You have created something special, unique even. My life is richer for it.
I'm sure many PBers can say likewise.0 -
Then again, the people who are marching today would not be offering a second referendum if they had won the first, and nor would they be demanding one if Parliament simply revoked A50.Andy_Cooke said:
It does rather illustrate the double-standards on offer.Casino_Royale said:
Which just goes to further prove my point about how it’s about the ends not the means.Andy_Cooke said:
The one set up by Leavers in advance of the vote because they thought they were going to lose?Casino_Royale said:
The biggest petition ever was the one in June 2016, straight after the Leave vote, demanding an immediate re-run.IanB2 said:
Yep, he as good as suggested she isn't up to what lies ahead and should step down. Without being unnecessarily rude about it.Roger said:George O is VERY good on radio 4. When the history of Mrs May's many mistakes comes to be written her firing of him might come to be though of as her most egregious
Meanwhile the petition (which he has signed) should achieve 4,000,000 very soon. Oddly the only previous petition that just passed four million also did so on the Saturday of an anti-Brexit demonstration, if a much smaller one.
Sore losers then. Bitter losers now.
That one?
There’s no great stand for democracy here. The cynicism is extraordinary.
Leavers love democracy and that's why they don't want another referendum and would have accepted the result if it went against them, while the democracy-hating Remainers signed a petition for another referendum.
A referendum set up by (democracy-loving) Leavers who thought they were going to lose and didn't want to accept the result if it went against them...
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Perhaps we should remember some of the old PBers who are no longer here.
While some such as Mark Senior have died others have disappeared.
But they all helped make PB what it is.0 -
Don't worry! I'm sure you'll blend right in!Foxy said:Standing room only on Midland Main Line, full of Remainiacs
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LOL! Good point well made. Someting about it reminded me of the artist Rose Hilton's line when wired by her husband in America 'Come home. I'm dying' to which she replied 'Not yet. I'm living'Ishmael_Z said:
I always find it easier to assess events after they have actually happened. Chill.Casino_Royale said:
PV are the Trumpians.Ishmael_Z said:
Chill and read this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inauguration_of_Donald_TrumpCasino_Royale said:
The numbers will certainly be made up.DougSeal said:
It hasn’t even started yet. How can they be making up numbers? And you’re not doing a very good job of ignoring it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Here’s how it works: organisers start by saying they expect “tens of thousands” to attend in friendly newspapers, thus setting expectations low (see here, for an example: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-march-london-put-it-to-the-people-live-updates-article-50-a8836386.html) they know at this time what their true numbers will be from their pledges, coaches, trains and organisers, which I expect today will be in the 300-350k box.
Later on they’ll declare the numbers to be “way above expectations” and go for the highest number they can credibly defend, and they’ll want it to be higher than 700k and, ideally, get a headline saying it’s “close to a million”.
This is spin. This is politics. This is how it WORKS.
And, they are advised by Alastair Campbell. Who is very very good at it.
Scroll down to crowd size. The police and drone or helicopter photos will give some objective numbers, plus it seems there is such a thing as a professor of crowd science, so there.
He overestimated his crowd size, just like them.0 -
The next US Presidential election.Casino_Royale said:
On what?Cyclefree said:Very many congratulations Mike.
This is a great site and my go to place for news and comment, with some really interesting and informative comments below the line. I first came across it in 2007 and lurked for a long time before venturing a comment. I also want to thank you for publishing my articles. It is a privilege.
And I am finally putting a bet on! There’s no point rushing these things.0 -
https://twitter.com/NickCohen4/status/1109091031872622594Pulpstar said:
Both Corbyn and May need to pivot to Common Market 2.0 shortly or the FBPE lot are going to depose Corbyn and the Tories will lose power for a long long time.Casino_Royale said:0 -
Union
How does one tell the difference?0 -
0
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You're just like Batman.Casino_Royale said:
I wouldn’t have to if the authorities did their job properly.0 -
ydoethur said:
The implication of that post is that there are some MATs that are not godawful.RochdalePioneers said:Great news! My son goes to high school in September. Literally across the playing fields from us is a newish build Academy - wonderful facilities, great staff and a great headteacher. The problem was that the multi academy trust were Godawful - the news this morning is that they are disposing of the school and we can forge a better future without them
Which ones would they be?
I'll happily work in standalone academies, but never ever again in an MAT.
One of the things I won’t thank this government for is the rush to MATs. If a school wants to become an academy and has the sort of head who can make the most of it, I’m not particularly opposed as long as the funding isn’t too skewed. But destroying LEAs, even successful Tory-led ones, and leaving (especially small) schools to fail unless they marry at the point of a shotgun has destroyed a lot of the ethos behind community education. Feels like a very urban solution, where choice and competition is an option. Not so much if your local primary has 80 (or maybe 40) kids and the next one’s ten miles away.0 -
Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.0 -
When I checked it last night there were 17,707 signatures in Corbyn's constituency. I thought that remarkable.El_Capitano said:The petition map site is b0rked too at the moment, but last night it was showing some truly remarkable numbers in Remainia Profonde. Both Cambridge and Bristol West were well above 15%, nudging 20%. Boston and Skegness was, shall we say, a little lower.
Edit: Thank you to the Smithsons for the site.0 -
Good satire is always on the cusp of reproducing accurately that which it's satirising._Anazina_ said:Union
How does one tell the difference?0 -
Happy PBirthday, PB!0
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Are we expecting a lot of Russian tourists on a walking tour of London this afternoon?Casino_Royale said:
I agree, but I’m altering people to the (inevitable) bullshit spin so they are alert to it when it happens later today and viewing it with a sceptical eye.Ishmael_Z said:
I always find it easier to assess events after they have actually happened. Chill.Casino_Royale said:
PV are the Trumpians.Ishmael_Z said:
Chill and read this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inauguration_of_Donald_TrumpCasino_Royale said:
The numbers will certainly be made up.DougSeal said:
It hasn’t even started yet. How can they be making up numbers? And you’re not doing a very good job of ignoring it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Here’s how it works: organisers start by saying they expect “tens of thousands” to attend in friendly newspapers, thus setting expectations low (see here, for an example: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-march-london-put-it-to-the-people-live-updates-article-50-a8836386.html) they know at this time what their true numbers will be from their pledges, coaches, trains and organisers, which I expect today will be in the 300-350k box.
Later on they’ll declare the numbers to be “way above expectations” and go for the highest number they can credibly defend, and they’ll want it to be higher than 700k and, ideally, get a headline saying it’s “close to a million”.
This is spin. This is politics. This is how it WORKS.
And, they are advised by Alastair Campbell. Who is very very good at it.
Scroll down to crowd size. The police and drone or helicopter photos will give some objective numbers, plus it seems there is such a thing as a professor of crowd science, so there.
He overestimated his crowd size, just like them.
I wouldn’t have to if the authorities did their job properly.0 -
Happy Birthday PB.
In its own small way, it’s a vital contribution to democratic discourse in this country. Utmost respect to Mike and all the gang.
I first discovered PB ten years ago, when Brown was PM, and I was a centrist, mildly Eurosceptic Tory.
What a difference ten years makes!0 -
Agreed and it is with no sense of gloating, because I do love France, that I make a comparison with the events in Paris.JackW said:Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.0 -
Well said.JackW said:Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit or sit on it of you are Jezza I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.
I also think the current "shambles" that is our government and legislature is, in its way 'working' - it may not be pretty, but I suspect "it will all turn out all right on the night".
These are features, not bugs - and if leaving the EU forces our politicians to raise their game, so much the better.0 -
Roger and Tyndall overlap klaxon.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agreed and it is with no sense of gloating, because I do love France, that I make a comparison with the events in Paris.JackW said:Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.0 -
What methodology will you use?Casino_Royale said:
No.DougSeal said:Casino_Royale said:
Today’s organisers will certainly overcook the numbers.Recidivist said:
You are proposing that they have made up the numbers before the march has even assembled? Maybe a bit of a closed mind there?Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
And you won’t undercook them?0 -
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus0 -
Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...0 -
Tough, May cannot now be challenged until December following her confidence vote win and she is stubborn enough to ignore Cabinet pressure to goScott_P said:0 -
That is so.JackW said:Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.0 -
I hope they are letting you share their tofu and quinoa wraps. By the time they are on the train home this evening they will all have stocked up with Good Brie.TheValiant said:On the train to London. Not for the March but for a show my daughter is in. Very busy, not helped by the original train being cancelled. Lots of EU flags and support on display in the train and good natured.
I may have voted LEAVE but I’ve got to admit May has made a complete hash of the process.
I wish she’d resign, though that wouldn’t necessarily help with the LOTO even worse!
I guess those with Family Railcards will have taken Tarquin and Jemima along as a development opportunity.0 -
Precedents can be changed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...0 -
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at allMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...0 -
By Commons vote too indeedSean_F said:
Precedents can be changed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...0 -
The only thing May had to offer was “apres moi, le deluge”.Scott_P said:
Then she turned on all the taps, undermined the levies, and punctured the water siloes.
She needs to go as soon as possible.0 -
I can't believe that Ladbrokes is offering 4-1 that she leaves in March, 4-1 that she leaves in April and 8-1 that she leaves in May; this looks like a profitable arbitrage opportunity for someone with funds (so alas not me!).HYUFD said:
Tough, May cannot now be challenged until December following her confidence vote win and she is stubborn enough to ignore Cabinet pressure to goScott_P said:0 -
Indeed all precedents were initially unprecedented.Sean_F said:
Precedents can be changed.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
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I can cite one MAT which is demonstrably not godawful, and mercifully that's the one Mrs Capitano's school belongs to: the Oxford Diocesan Schools Trust. They've just been Ofstedded favourably, and though the full Ofsted letter is worth reading, this Oxford Mail report summarises it neatly: https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/17519915.ofsteds-new-report-for-oxford-diocesan-schools-trust/Harris_Tweed said:
One of the things I won’t thank this government for is the rush to MATs. If a school wants to become an academy and has the sort of head who can make the most of it, I’m not particularly opposed as long as the funding isn’t too skewed. But destroying LEAs, even successful Tory-led ones, and leaving (especially small) schools to fail unless they marry at the point of a shotgun has destroyed a lot of the ethos behind community education. Feels like a very urban solution, where choice and competition is an option. Not so much if your local primary has 80 (or maybe 40) kids and the next one’s ten miles away.ydoethur said:
The implication of that post is that there are some MATs that are not godawful.RochdalePioneers said:Great news! My son goes to high school in September. Literally across the playing fields from us is a newish build Academy - wonderful facilities, great staff and a great headteacher. The problem was that the multi academy trust were Godawful - the news this morning is that they are disposing of the school and we can forge a better future without them
Which ones would they be?
I'll happily work in standalone academies, but never ever again in an MAT.
But they do seem to be an exception, in that they're focused on smaller community schools, and they see themselves as supporting rather than controlling schools. There are plenty of horror stories about other MATs in this part of Oxfordshire.0 -
That would be a very ill informed gloat. No one demonstates as often or in greater numbers than the French.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agreed and it is with no sense of gloating, because I do love France, that I make a comparison with the events in Paris.JackW said:Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.0 -
I'm not sure that anything will gain a majority.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
I did suggest a process of elimination, but even then, if the winner got say 280 votes, it might still get voted down.0 -
Happy birthday PB!
The best news and political debating site on the web by a country mile.0 -
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.HYUFD said:
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at allMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...0 -
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I wasnt talking about the amount of protesting. I was talking about the level of associated violence.Roger said:
That would be a very ill informed gloat. No one demonstates as often or in greater numbers than the French.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agreed and it is with no sense of gloating, because I do love France, that I make a comparison with the events in Paris.JackW said:Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.0 -
And the required legislation would not pass.Sean_F said:
I'm not sure that anything will gain a majority.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
I did suggest a process of elimination, but even then, if the winner got say 280 votes, it might still get voted down.0 -
How will jemima and Tarquin ever manage to get cheap as chips tradesman and other staff if we leave the European Union? Won’t anyone think of the future middle managers?SandyRentool said:
I hope they are letting you share their tofu and quinoa wraps. By the time they are on the train home this evening they will all have stocked up with Good Brie.TheValiant said:On the train to London. Not for the March but for a show my daughter is in. Very busy, not helped by the original train being cancelled. Lots of EU flags and support on display in the train and good natured.
I may have voted LEAVE but I’ve got to admit May has made a complete hash of the process.
I wish she’d resign, though that wouldn’t necessarily help with the LOTO even worse!
I guess those with Family Railcards will have taken Tarquin and Jemima along as a development opportunity.0 -
No, they think it is remaining.TudorRose said:
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.HYUFD said:
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at allMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...0 -
CarlottaVance said:
Well said.JackW said:Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit or sit on it of you are Jezza I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.
I also think the current "shambles" that is our government and legislature is, in its way 'working' - it may not be pretty, but I suspect "it will all turn out all right on the night".
These are features, not bugs - and if leaving the EU forces our politicians to raise their game, so much the better.
And is pretty much how every other nation in the EU manages its fractious proportional Parliament.0 -
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Morning all
Congratulations to Mike, Robert and all connected with PB for reaching the august age (in March) of "old enough to know better".
I think I was here at an early stage - certainly pre 2005 - and I certainly remember some interesting discourse with Martin Day, the late and much-missed Mark Senior and Mr "Gaylord Ponceyboots" himself, SeanT.
I also remember the bbq on the terrace of the National Liberal Club - a sublime evening of good food and better discourse. I did wonder if some of the Conservatives had issues with being in such a hallowed venue but Gladstone was a Tory once.
Thanks to everyone for keeping the site as fresh and dynamic as it is - it's a regular stop for me in my busy day. Kudos to all the long price bets that came in and well done also to all those who traded off for a profit. I'm still an old fashioned punter at heart.
Thank you to everyone for the discourse - it's sharpened in recent times and especially so since 2008. Too many seem determined to defend a particular line ad infinitum and ad nauseam. PB shouldn't be the equivalent of baseline tennis - occasionally we all have to try to come to the net to move the argument forward.0 -
An interesting comment:
https://twitter.com/PietEeckhout/status/1108123893888442368
Anyway, I must be off.0 -
What about #Priti4Leader and #Esther4Leader ?Scott_P said:0 -
Aren't they the same thing (from a Brexiteer perspective)?Sean_F said:
No, they think it is remaining.TudorRose said:
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.HYUFD said:
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at allMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...0 -
The Commons can vote for what they like - and I wish they would.- but that doesn't necessarily mean it is possible within the rules of the various organisations. A permanent Customs Union is, I believe, mutually exclusive with EFTA membership.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus0 -
I think you’re right.Sean_F said:
I'm not sure that anything will gain a majority.HYUFD said:
Customs Union is required for the backstop, once solution agreed for NI no backstop needed.Richard_Tyndall said:
The Commons is likeliest to vote for permanent Customs Union above all though over No Deal, Deal, revoke, EUref2, even Norway Plus
I did suggest a process of elimination, but even then, if the winner got say 280 votes, it might still get voted down.0 -
I know it would be the end of their Conservative career but they could say, “Quit, or I’ll resign and cross the floor.” Only take about three of these to finish her off as a VONC would then pass.HYUFD said:
Tough, May cannot now be challenged until December following her confidence vote win and she is stubborn enough to ignore Cabinet pressure to goScott_P said:
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Christ this culture war bollocks is tiresome. I went on the last march. Yes, it skewed middle class and white but I didn't see anyone eating quinoa or French cheese (oh the horror). There is a broad swathe of reasonable open minded people in this country who are sick to the back teeth of Brexit and all the damage it has done - chiefly so far the distraction from our real problems, such as the decimation of our public services. For what it's worth I hate quinoa and my kids haven't got wanky names. I am sure you have ten whippets and live exclusively on pies and your kids are all called Jaydon. You see, we can all do it and it's not big or clever. Oh and happy 15 years PB, you are a great news source.SandyRentool said:
I hope they are letting you share their tofu and quinoa wraps. By the time they are on the train home this evening they will all have stocked up with Good Brie.TheValiant said:On the train to London. Not for the March but for a show my daughter is in. Very busy, not helped by the original train being cancelled. Lots of EU flags and support on display in the train and good natured.
I may have voted LEAVE but I’ve got to admit May has made a complete hash of the process.
I wish she’d resign, though that wouldn’t necessarily help with the LOTO even worse!
I guess those with Family Railcards will have taken Tarquin and Jemima along as a development opportunity.0 -
Muppets.Sean_F said:
No, they think it is remaining.TudorRose said:
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.HYUFD said:
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at allMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...0 -
There’s nothing a devout Protestant dislikes more than someone who worships the same god, from the same book in mostly the same way, but does it all slightly differently under a different name.Sean_F said:
No, they think it is remaining.TudorRose said:
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.HYUFD said:
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at allMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...0 -
Thinking back to PB topics over the years: 'Farmy-farm' - what the heck was all that about?0
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Exactly.Sean_F said:
Then again, the people who are marching today would not be offering a second referendum if they had won the first, and nor would they be demanding one if Parliament simply revoked A50.Andy_Cooke said:
It does rather illustrate the double-standards on offer.Casino_Royale said:
Which just goes to further prove my point about how it’s about the ends not the means.Andy_Cooke said:
The one set up by Leavers in advance of the vote because they thought they were going to lose?Casino_Royale said:
The biggest petition ever was the one in June 2016, straight after the Leave vote, demanding an immediate re-run.IanB2 said:
Yep, he as good as suggested she isn't up to what lies ahead and should step down. Without being unnecessarily rude about it.Roger said:George O is VERY good on radio 4. When the history of Mrs May's many mistakes comes to be written her firing of him might come to be though of as her most egregious
Meanwhile the petition (which he has signed) should achieve 4,000,000 very soon. Oddly the only previous petition that just passed four million also did so on the Saturday of an anti-Brexit demonstration, if a much smaller one.
Sore losers then. Bitter losers now.
That one?
There’s no great stand for democracy here. The cynicism is extraordinary.
Leavers love democracy and that's why they don't want another referendum and would have accepted the result if it went against them, while the democracy-hating Remainers signed a petition for another referendum.
A referendum set up by (democracy-loving) Leavers who thought they were going to lose and didn't want to accept the result if it went against them...0 -
I have listened to you. I have slept on it. But nothing has changed.
I’m still convinced I’m right. There’s only two options available to Parliament, pass the WA or it’s Clean brexit. Clean brexit isn’t engineered by anybody from here. IT ALREADY HAS BEEN. It’s whether it can be stopped.
Firstly, yes, may be support in parliament for a form of vassalage that could win a majority of votes. But it could never be put to the people for their endorsement as it would fall apart as the vassalage it is in the first week of that ref campaign and soundly defeated by the people.
Secondly times up, A50 was used to negotiate a deal based on red lines not of parliaments choosing but of the Conservative party and its supporters in this country at this time. The A50 time is now gone and it only produced one withdraw agreement.
Thirdly, the indicative vote trash everyone getting distracted by is meaningless unless EU choose to run with the outcome. And the explicit signal from the EU is they are keen on the current WA and failing that, just like the PM, not apparently bothered by clean brexit.
You could make out EU, and May and her cabinet, are lot more keen to avoid Clean Brexit than they are letting on, but if you are convinced of that then you are dangerous.
So Clean Break is still on the table and more potent than ever if people carry on thinking it isn’t.0 -
I was going to respond "yes, there's one thing they dislike more, and that's Graham Kendrick" but that would kind of make your point.notme2 said:
There’s nothing a devout Protestant dislikes more than someone who worships the same god, from the same book in mostly the same way, but does it all slightly differently under a different name.Sean_F said:
No, they think it is remaining.TudorRose said:
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.HYUFD said:
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at allMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...0 -
It’s an interesting example.notme2 said:
There’s nothing a devout Protestant dislikes more than someone who worships the same god, from the same book in mostly the same way, but does it all slightly differently under a different name.Sean_F said:
No, they think it is remaining.TudorRose said:
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.HYUFD said:
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at allMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
In England we had a Catholicism exit in name only (Henry VIII), followed by a hard Protestant exit under Edward VI, followed by a hard revoke under Mary I and an eventual CoE compromise under Elizabeth I, which worked in bringing the centre of public opinion in the country on board and establishing it but acknowledge a permanent catholic minority was here to stay, and later tolerated dissidents hard Protestants on the other flank.
That situation effectively still exists today nearly 500 years on.0 -
That was pretty much about 40% of my A Level history syllabus...Casino_Royale said:
It’s an interesting example.notme2 said:
There’s nothing a devout Protestant dislikes more than someone who worships the same god, from the same book in mostly the same way, but does it all slightly differently under a different name.Sean_F said:
No, they think it is remaining.TudorRose said:
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.HYUFD said:
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at allMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
In England we had a Catholicism exit in name only (Henry VIII), followed by a hard Protestant exit under Edward VI, followed by a hard revoke under Mary I and an eventual CoE compromise under Elizabeth I, which worked in bringing the centre of public opinion in the country on board and establishing it but acknowledge a permanent catholic minority was here to stay, and later tolerated dissidents hard Protestants on the other flank.
That situation effectively still exists today nearly 500 years on.0 -
It was a game enjoyed by Gordon Brown (allegedly)SandyRentool said:Thinking back to PB topics over the years: 'Farmy-farm' - what the heck was all that about?
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I’d much rather be here than any of France, Spain or Italy. It’s not all about the weather.Richard_Tyndall said:
I wasnt talking about the amount of protesting. I was talking about the level of associated violence.Roger said:
That would be a very ill informed gloat. No one demonstates as often or in greater numbers than the French.Richard_Tyndall said:
Agreed and it is with no sense of gloating, because I do love France, that I make a comparison with the events in Paris.JackW said:Whichever side of the BREXIT fence you sit, or sit on it if you are Jezza, I'm minded to cheer the London march today. Not for the cause they espouse but to celebrate that we live in a country where hundreds of thousands may march and largely peacefully demonstrate for a cause they believe in.
There are still many in our world who do not enjoy or have much hope in the near future of enjoying such a wonderful right or sight.
Germany, Netherlands and Denmark are all well run, and I could live there, but I’d have various gripes about the political/social cultures of each.
I actually rather like Poland too.0 -
Happy Birhday PB. I’m not a big stakes player by any means but have had a fair few profitable nights thanks to the insight offered by this site.
I’ve also learned the importance of thinking with your head rather than your heart when placing bets. Brexit and Trump were by far the most profitable events for me as it was clear on the night that the pundits underestimating the probability of both,despite both being the exact opposite of what I wanted to happen.
Some of my favourite memories over the years...
EICIPM
JackW’s ARSE
Sean T’s rants
Tim’s endless ability to wind up the “PB Tories”
IOS and the “Labour ground game”
Railway geekery
Rod Crosby’s models
And a few sad ones too, such as Plato’s steady descent into insanity and the passing away of some posters.0 -
If May had more cunning she could do what Walsingham did and lock the ERG out of the chamber.notme2 said:
That was pretty much about 40% of my A Level history syllabus...Casino_Royale said:
It’s an interesting example.notme2 said:
There’s nothing a devout Protestant dislikes more than someone who worships the same god, from the same book in mostly the same way, but does it all slightly differently under a different name.Sean_F said:
No, they think it is remaining.TudorRose said:
But they believe that May's deal is BINO.HYUFD said:
It lost by just 6 votes agaibst it last year, indicative votes will be held next week, permanent Customs Union will likely win and Remainer Bercow will happily allow it as it amends the political declaration and ensures a BINO WA. It is about time the clueless ERG realised it is May's Deal or BINO or No Brexit at allMorris_Dancer said:Mr. HYUFD, the Commons has (repeatedly, I think) voted against customs union, which was also never a possibility raised in the referendum campaign.
I believe there's a 1604 precedent that would be relevant...
In England we had a Catholicism exit in name only (Henry VIII), followed by a hard Protestant exit under Edward VI, followed by a hard revoke under Mary I and an eventual CoE compromise under Elizabeth I, which worked in bringing the centre of public opinion in the country on board and establishing it but acknowledge a permanent catholic minority was here to stay, and later tolerated dissidents hard Protestants on the other flank.
That situation effectively still exists today nearly 500 years on.0 -
You've got me all wrong - it's a diet of Gregg's steak bakes that keeps me going. Well actually there is a packet of quinoa in our kitchen cupboard, and I don't mind the odd bit of meat substitute on occasion.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Christ this culture war bollocks is tiresome. I went on the last march. Yes, it skewed middle class and white but I didn't see anyone eating quinoa or French cheese (oh the horror). There is a broad swathe of reasonable open minded people in this country who are sick to the back teeth of Brexit and all the damage it has done - chiefly so far the distraction from our real problems, such as the decimation of our public services. For what it's worth I hate quinoa and my kids haven't got wanky names. I am sure you have ten whippets and live exclusively on pies and your kids are all called Jaydon. You see, we can all do it and it's not big or clever. Oh and happy 15 years PB, you are a great news source.SandyRentool said:
I hope they are letting you share their tofu and quinoa wraps. By the time they are on the train home this evening they will all have stocked up with Good Brie.TheValiant said:On the train to London. Not for the March but for a show my daughter is in. Very busy, not helped by the original train being cancelled. Lots of EU flags and support on display in the train and good natured.
I may have voted LEAVE but I’ve got to admit May has made a complete hash of the process.
I wish she’d resign, though that wouldn’t necessarily help with the LOTO even worse!
I guess those with Family Railcards will have taken Tarquin and Jemima along as a development opportunity.
I know I'm using a cliché to describe the marchers - well done to those attending for turning out for a cause they believe in. And thank goodness we live in a society where they can do so free from fear.0 -
I like going on marches. I have been on a fair few in my time starting with anti-fascist and anti-vivisection marches in the early 80s. They are a lot of fun and good exercise with like minded people.
I don't for a minute think they change policy in the UK and the last one to really have an impact on Government policy was probably the Great Chartist rally of 1848.
But I hope it goes well for the marchers today and they enjoy it. Peaceful protest is a great thing even when it achieves nothing.0 -
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on his rocking horse?Scott_P said:
It was a game enjoyed by Gordon Brown (allegedly)SandyRentool said:Thinking back to PB topics over the years: 'Farmy-farm' - what the heck was all that about?
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Sometime these things have a retroactive effect. The Iraq March didn’t stop action there but it made it impossible for the government to take action in Syria and Libya without a parliamentary vote first.Richard_Tyndall said:I like going on marches. I have been on a fair few in my time starting with anti-fascist and anti-vivisection marches in the early 80s. They are a lot of fun and good exercise with like minded people.
I don't for a minute think they change policy in the UK and the last one to really have an impact on Government policy was probably the Great Chartist rally of 1848.
But I hope it goes well for the marchers today and they enjoy it. Peaceful protest is a great thing even when it achieves nothing.0 -
The pro Brexit gathering in Plymouth managed the lofty heights of 7 people .
Even more startling one of them bemoaning the state of the UK and its politicians suggested she’s really fed up and advised people to escape from the UK and to move somewhere like Greece !
Stupid is as stupid does !0 -
Pretty sure precipitous Brexit wouldn't do her chances any good either, but always best to get your excuses in early.
https://twitter.com/magnusllewellin/status/1109371038247370752
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True. I was thinking just in terms of changing immediate Government policy which is what I suspect most people going on marches really want.not_on_fire said:
Sometime these things have a retroactive effect. The Iraq March didn’t stop action there but it made it impossible for the government to take action in Syria and Libya without a parliamentary vote first.Richard_Tyndall said:I like going on marches. I have been on a fair few in my time starting with anti-fascist and anti-vivisection marches in the early 80s. They are a lot of fun and good exercise with like minded people.
I don't for a minute think they change policy in the UK and the last one to really have an impact on Government policy was probably the Great Chartist rally of 1848.
But I hope it goes well for the marchers today and they enjoy it. Peaceful protest is a great thing even when it achieves nothing.0 -
Posters not around back then will now be thinking WTF?!?SquareRoot said:
on his rocking horse?Scott_P said:
It was a game enjoyed by Gordon Brown (allegedly)SandyRentool said:Thinking back to PB topics over the years: 'Farmy-farm' - what the heck was all that about?
Anyways, time to go and annoy the local residents by sticking Labour leaflets through their letterboxes - we've got a council seat to win off the Tories in May.0 -
Yes.. happy to degeneralise. Such trusts (even despite my atheist leanings) have been a useful bulwark against the more commercial ones for small schools which weren’t willing or able to stand alone. I suspect most of their members were happy enough with LA involvement and support if they’re anything like the ones I know.El_Capitano said:
I can cite one MAT which is demonstrably not godawful, and mercifully that's the one Mrs Capitano's school belongs to: the Oxford Diocesan Schools Trust. They've just been Ofstedded favourably, and though the full Ofsted letter is worth reading, this Oxford Mail report summarises it neatly: https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/17519915.ofsteds-new-report-for-oxford-diocesan-schools-trust/Harris_Tweed said:
One of the things I won’t thank this government for is the rush to MATs. If a school wants to become an academy and has the sort of head who can make the most of it, I’m not particularly opposed as long as the funding isn’t too skewed. But destroying LEAs, even successful Tory-led ones, and leaving (especially small) schools to fail unless they marry at the point of a shotgun has destroyed a lot of the ethos behind community education. Feels like a very urban solution, where choice and competition is an option. Not so much if your local primary has 80 (or maybe 40) kids and the next one’s ten miles away.ydoethur said:
The implication of that post is that there are some MATs that are not godawful.RochdalePioneers said:Great news! My son goes to high school in September. Literally across the playing fields from us is a newish build Academy - wonderful facilities, great staff and a great headteacher. The problem was that the multi academy trust were Godawful - the news this morning is that they are disposing of the school and we can forge a better future without them
Which ones would they be?
I'll happily work in standalone academies, but never ever again in an MAT.
But they do seem to be an exception, in that they're focused on smaller community schools, and they see themselves as supporting rather than controlling schools. There are plenty of horror stories about other MATs in this part of Oxfordshire.0 -
Is it loaded with gunpowder?Scott_P said:0 -
I didn't know that in 2016 there was a petition for a second referendum which got 4.15 million signatures.
https://petition.parliament.uk/archived/petitions/1312150 -
Who was the rumoured senior labour mp who posted (sorry nick). Was it Yvette Cooper?0
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Some people, with just the wrong sort of temperament get wound up watching it on telly and feel they have to do something.Richard_Tyndall said:
True. I was thinking just in terms of changing immediate Government policy which is what I suspect most people going on marches really want.not_on_fire said:
Sometime these things have a retroactive effect. The Iraq March didn’t stop action there but it made it impossible for the government to take action in Syria and Libya without a parliamentary vote first.Richard_Tyndall said:I like going on marches. I have been on a fair few in my time starting with anti-fascist and anti-vivisection marches in the early 80s. They are a lot of fun and good exercise with like minded people.
I don't for a minute think they change policy in the UK and the last one to really have an impact on Government policy was probably the Great Chartist rally of 1848.
But I hope it goes well for the marchers today and they enjoy it. Peaceful protest is a great thing even when it achieves nothing.
Be interesting later with London and Paris burning in symmetry, could probably see the smoke from space.
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I think the bigger ones have just become the Capita of education. In many situations independent autonomous management schools is a much better state of affairs than the LEA. Same with outsourcing, it can work, but it doesn’t automatically mean it will.Harris_Tweed said:
Yes.. happy to degeneralise. Such trusts (even despite my atheist leanings) have been a useful bulwark against the more commercial ones for small schools which weren’t willing or able to stand alone. I suspect most of their members were happy enough with LA involvement and support if they’re anything like the ones I know.El_Capitano said:
I can cite one MAT which is demonstrably not godawful, and mercifully that's the one Mrs Capitano's school belongs to: the Oxford Diocesan Schools Trust. They've just been Ofstedded favourably, and though the full Ofsted letter is worth reading, this Oxford Mail report summarises it neatly: https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/17519915.ofsteds-new-report-for-oxford-diocesan-schools-trust/Harris_Tweed said:
One of the things I won’t thank this government for is the rush to MATs. If a school wants to become an academy and has the sort of head who can make the most of it, I’m not particularly opposed as long as the funding isn’t too skewed. But destroying LEAs, even successful Tory-led ones, and leaving (especially small) schools to fail unless they marry at the point of a shotgun has destroyed a lot of the ethos behind community education. Feels like a very urban solution, where choice and competition is an option. Not so much if your local primary has 80 (or maybe 40) kids and the next one’s ten miles away.ydoethur said:
The implication of that post is that there are some MATs that are not godawful.RochdalePioneers said:Great news! My son goes to high school in September. Literally across the playing fields from us is a newish build Academy - wonderful facilities, great staff and a great headteacher. The problem was that the multi academy trust were Godawful - the news this morning is that they are disposing of the school and we can forge a better future without them
Which ones would they be?
I'll happily work in standalone academies, but never ever again in an MAT.
But they do seem to be an exception, in that they're focused on smaller community schools, and they see themselves as supporting rather than controlling schools. There are plenty of horror stories about other MATs in this part of Oxfordshire.
The multi acedemy trusts are much like the gigantic housing associations, while technically they don’t make a profit, they suck resources from their services to fund multiple layers of corporate management and function in the same parasitic way as many of the worst LEAs.0 -
Oh good - next time we try to Brexit 40 years after rejoining we will think twice ;-)not_on_fire said:
Sometime these things have a retroactive effect. The Iraq March didn’t stop action there but it made it impossible for the government to take action in Syria and Libya without a parliamentary vote first.Richard_Tyndall said:I like going on marches. I have been on a fair few in my time starting with anti-fascist and anti-vivisection marches in the early 80s. They are a lot of fun and good exercise with like minded people.
I don't for a minute think they change policy in the UK and the last one to really have an impact on Government policy was probably the Great Chartist rally of 1848.
But I hope it goes well for the marchers today and they enjoy it. Peaceful protest is a great thing even when it achieves nothing.0 -
Sort of. EU law is supreme because of the 1972 Act and if no SI passes that Act would be repealed automatically on the 29th. So it would no longer be supreme.Morris_Dancer said:An interesting comment:
https://twitter.com/PietEeckhout/status/1108123893888442368
Anyway, I must be off.0 -
Yes... I know a few MPs who lurk...Nemtynakht said:Who was the rumoured senior labour mp who posted (sorry nick). Was it Yvette Cooper?
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Happy Birthday to PB.
I've been lurking here since the conservative leadership process that elected Cameron, back when I was in my early 20s. I guess there are thousands of other lurkers who read regularly and don't post.
Lots of memories from the old days... Angus Reid polls, Swingback theory, tips on Obama, PR squared 🤔.
Thanks to all the Mike and all the contributors and posters who make this site an interesting read.0 -
Will this include his Greek sojourn?
https://twitter.com/jameschappers/status/1109413273198301185?s=200 -
Let me add my thanks to all involved in making PB a feature of my life. I think I may have a small part in its success as for a number of years I gave presentations to local authorities on how to access political information on the web. PB was one of the case studies.0
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The fact that Iraq turned into such a disaster had something to do with it.not_on_fire said:
Sometime these things have a retroactive effect. The Iraq March didn’t stop action there but it made it impossible for the government to take action in Syria and Libya without a parliamentary vote first.Richard_Tyndall said:I like going on marches. I have been on a fair few in my time starting with anti-fascist and anti-vivisection marches in the early 80s. They are a lot of fun and good exercise with like minded people.
I don't for a minute think they change policy in the UK and the last one to really have an impact on Government policy was probably the Great Chartist rally of 1848.
But I hope it goes well for the marchers today and they enjoy it. Peaceful protest is a great thing even when it achieves nothing.
The march probably did for Blair's reputation, not listening and then being proved wrong0 -
And if she goes. A win-win situationMarqueeMark said:0 -
Happy Birthday PB.com!
Congratulations, Mike!
And well done to all thread writers, like TSE, Cyclefree, Alastair M, David H, and everyone else!0 -
Yes. I tend to agree that not tidying this up domestically would be a mistake. All sorts of legal mischief/confusion would present themselvesPhilip_Thompson said:
Sort of. EU law is supreme because of the 1972 Act and if no SI passes that Act would be repealed automatically on the 29th. So it would no longer be supreme.Morris_Dancer said:An interesting comment:
https://twitter.com/PietEeckhout/status/1108123893888442368
Anyway, I must be off.0 -
What's that really, really, really loud whining noise?
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/11094140869184552960 -
Off to the march so not following the site today but I would just like to add my good wishes to MIke and the team - PB is the best place to follow politics in the U.K. End of.0
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Strangely it is her one powerful option she has left - she needs to go and it reminds me of a Gordon Brown at the end. All judgement lost.TheValiant said:
I know it would be the end of their Conservative career but they could say, “Quit, or I’ll resign and cross the floor.” Only take about three of these to finish her off as a VONC would then pass.HYUFD said:
Tough, May cannot now be challenged until December following her confidence vote win and she is stubborn enough to ignore Cabinet pressure to goScott_P said:
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Congratulations to all concerned on the anniversary of PB.0
