politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For Politicalbetting’s 15th anniversary today – a special cart
Comments
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Tbf they already seem to be in a perpetual state of pissed off-ness.GIN1138 said:
And now by cancelling Brexit on 29th she's pissed off the 17.4m who voted leave...Roger said:Even the most primitive leaders realize that they are not just leaders for the half that voted for them but also the half that didn't. Even Mrs Thatcher paid lip service to it
Mrs May has done everything to alienate the 16,5 million who voted Remain and this alone is why she's now such a dismal failure.0 -
That's such a shame. Several of my family (and more friends) attended AB, and I went to another school in the group.ydoethur said:Incidentally, when I was criticising Labour's policy on school fees and saying it would raise no money and inflict much higher costs on state schools, many people scoffed at me.
They might benefit from reading this story:
https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/burton/abbots-bromley-school-closure-2669716
That is because of pension changes which have increased employer costs by 7%. It will not be the last school to close this summer as a result.
What do people think will happen if costs rise by 20%?
It was a good place.0 -
If only ...GIN1138 said:
And now by cancelling Brexit on 29th she's pissed off the 17.4m who voted leave...Roger said:Even the most primitive leaders realize that they are not just leaders for the half that voted for them but also the half that didn't. Even Mrs Thatcher paid lip service to it
Mrs May has done everything to alienate the 16,5 million who voted Remain and this alone is why she's now such a dismal failure.0 -
Irrelevant. The policy decision was taken by national vote and its current measure of support is tested through properly weighted opinion polls, not self-selecting marches and petitions.Gardenwalker said:
How’s the Brexit petition and march going?Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
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It was reneging on this referendum which caused the momentum towards Cameron offering a referendum on the treaty that followed.TrèsDifficile said:"But Tony Blair’s actions have not looked like those of a man looking forward to an early retirement. His controversial but strategically brilliant move agreeing to the Euro referendum in April has really taken the edge of the Tory threat and has left Michael Howard without the anti-European rhetoric to deflect the continuing differences over the EU within the Conservative Party."
Mike Smithson June 2004
How times have changed!0 -
Unless JRM is right that we will be hundreds of billions better off, and not just by investing in foreign stock markets like, erm, JRM.Gallowgate said:The ‘losers’ are going to be all of us if a no deal Brexit happens.
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Today’s organisers will certainly overcook the numbers.Recidivist said:
You are proposing that they have made up the numbers before the march has even assembled? Maybe a bit of a closed mind there?Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.0 -
Many happy returns and congratulations to PB. In many ways this is a remarkable political blog - may it thrive for many more years yet!0
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You wonder if Osborne isn't secretly rather glad he's missing all of this. He could return to Parliament and become PM in the not too distant future as the person untainted by this mess and with a new perspective on life. After all, he's still not quite 48.Theuniondivvie said:
I think Portillo's rejection & change story is probably why he (slightly mystifyingly to me) is quite popular. Pastel coloured jackets and occasional self-deprecation go some way to obliterating the memory of his ghastly, onanistic SAS speech.matt said:
Being rejected generally changes people. I suspect that you would not have been so kind were he still Chancellor. Although I agree that was a catastrophic error and one I would think was pushed by people who did May’s thinking for her.Roger said:George O is VERY good on radio 4. When the history of Mrs May's many mistakes comes to be written her firing of him might come to be though of as her most egregious
Addendum- Michael Portillo remains for me the best example of rejection and change. Albeit I think he is a wooden and suboptimal television presenter, it’s clear that I’m in the minority.0 -
Great to see you back Stuart (I lost my login details so have a new name these days)StuartDickson said:Congratulations Mike and Robert. I’m pretty sure I predate Nick Palmer then-MP and Mr Herdson, both fine writers. I miss some of the former contributors, and was sorry to hear of the passing away of Mark Senior. Never an easy man to cross swords with, he was an astonishingly talented and well-informed advocate for his cause. I’m only popping in cos the provocative SeanT happened to say something nice about me, in passing, a few months ago. Another successful poke, or boot, from the bon viveur. Politicalbetting.com has, like all media outlets, it’s strengths and weaknesses, and I’m not sure that you two are fully aware of what they are. But on a personal level, the wise Mr Meeks (then Antifrank) once said something accurate about the world being full of transmitters and receivers, and that I was most definitely a transmitter. One of the strengths of PB is that it has nudged me a little way along the continuum to being a receiver. A minor achievement for you, but a bit of an eye-opener for me.
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'Nigel doesn't have national trust'GIN1138 said:0 -
As I'm a Remainer with a very uncomfortable post-operative back, am I classified as a sore loser?Casino_Royale said:
My numbers aren’t made up there are completely factually based.IanB2 said:
We await your own made-up numbers with eager anticipationCasino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
I urge everyone to be very alert today to PV spin and propaganda. Because it will be coming.0 -
Are you naive enough to think that revoking article 50 ends all this?Gallowgate said:
No thanks mate. Revoke all the way. Only way to end this thing.notme2 said:
Well get your MP to vote for the WA.Gallowgate said:The ‘losers’ are going to be all of us if a no deal Brexit happens.
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He is untainted by this mess to be sure but his enthusiasm for Remain in 2016 will not ender him to the membership.ydoethur said:
You wonder if Osborne isn't secretly rather glad he's missing all of this. He could return to Parliament and become PM in the not too distant future as the person untainted by this mess and with a new perspective on life. After all, he's still not quite 48.Theuniondivvie said:
I think Portillo's rejection & change story is probably why he (slightly mystifyingly to me) is quite popular. Pastel coloured jackets and occasional self-deprecation go some way to obliterating the memory of his ghastly, onanistic SAS speech.matt said:
Being rejected generally changes people. I suspect that you would not have been so kind were he still Chancellor. Although I agree that was a catastrophic error and one I would think was pushed by people who did May’s thinking for her.Roger said:George O is VERY good on radio 4. When the history of Mrs May's many mistakes comes to be written her firing of him might come to be though of as her most egregious
Addendum- Michael Portillo remains for me the best example of rejection and change. Albeit I think he is a wooden and suboptimal television presenter, it’s clear that I’m in the minority.0 -
Which just goes to further prove my point about how it’s about the ends not the means.Andy_Cooke said:
The one set up by Leavers in advance of the vote because they thought they were going to lose?Casino_Royale said:
The biggest petition ever was the one in June 2016, straight after the Leave vote, demanding an immediate re-run.IanB2 said:
Yep, he as good as suggested she isn't up to what lies ahead and should step down. Without being unnecessarily rude about it.Roger said:George O is VERY good on radio 4. When the history of Mrs May's many mistakes comes to be written her firing of him might come to be though of as her most egregious
Meanwhile the petition (which he has signed) should achieve 4,000,000 very soon. Oddly the only previous petition that just passed four million also did so on the Saturday of an anti-Brexit demonstration, if a much smaller one.
Sore losers then. Bitter losers now.
That one?
There’s no great stand for democracy here. The cynicism is extraordinary.0 -
No, i wasnt fussed in 2016 whether we stayed or left. I have only developed strong feelings on the matter since it became clear that leave's attempt to leave was degenerating into what you yourself call "a monstrous nightmare". So even on your infantile "yah boo sucks" level, you fail. Numpty.notme2 said:
People who didn’t want to leave are still stamping their feet’s. Of course i’ll be triumphant. No Conservative prime minister is going to offer a second referendum, the only question is on how we will leave, leave will be done. The stamping of feet is so pleasurable to see, the impotence is so utterly delicious that it makes the whole monstrous nightmare worth while just to expose these people.Ishmael_Z said:
Do fuck off, you silly little man. Do you really think, looking around you, that leave has anything to be triumphalist about just now?notme2 said:
The sore losers you mean.Recidivist said:
The people are out on the streets, but the elites are just sneering condescendingly at them to put it another way.old_labour said:I have just remembered there is going to be a smorgasbord of smugness snaking its way through the streets of London today.
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I take such comments with a pinch of salt.JackW said:_Anazina_ said:The big news of the day is that Uri Geller has intervened to stop Brexit. The nation’s spoons are a small price to pay to stop this crazy madness.
You made a hash (spoon) of that comment.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Anazina, we've reached a fork in the road. The nation's future is balanced on the edge of a knife.
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No, you always conduct yourself with dignity and decorum even when we disagree.OldKingCole said:
As I'm a Remainer with a very uncomfortable post-operative back, am I classified as a sore loser?Casino_Royale said:
My numbers aren’t made up there are completely factually based.IanB2 said:
We await your own made-up numbers with eager anticipationCasino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
I urge everyone to be very alert today to PV spin and propaganda. Because it will be coming.0 -
IanB2 said:
We await your own made-up numbers with eager anticipationCasino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Remember, unless today’s Remain march can identify at least 51 attendees, it will have been beaten by the Leave march.0 -
It's been in trouble for a while. In fact, it nearly went under five years ago. It isn't a great location really - while very beautiful, it's also very remote. When your nearest town is Rugeley, you don't have much for those who want bright lights and places to hang out (like, y'know, teenagers). And unlike Denstone its facilities weren't really good enough to compensate.JosiasJessop said:
That's such a shame. Several of my family (and more friends) attended AB, and I went to another school in the group.ydoethur said:Incidentally, when I was criticising Labour's policy on school fees and saying it would raise no money and inflict much higher costs on state schools, many people scoffed at me.
They might benefit from reading this story:
https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/burton/abbots-bromley-school-closure-2669716
That is because of pension changes which have increased employer costs by 7%. It will not be the last school to close this summer as a result.
What do people think will happen if costs rise by 20%?
It was a good place.
But a phrase about straws and camel's backs springs to mind.0 -
I thought you were ignoring it? Seems to me like you’re getting your excuses in early.Casino_Royale said:
Today’s organisers will certainly overcook the numbers.Recidivist said:
You are proposing that they have made up the numbers before the march has even assembled? Maybe a bit of a closed mind there?Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.0 -
It does rather illustrate the double-standards on offer.Casino_Royale said:
Which just goes to further prove my point about how it’s about the ends not the means.Andy_Cooke said:
The one set up by Leavers in advance of the vote because they thought they were going to lose?Casino_Royale said:
The biggest petition ever was the one in June 2016, straight after the Leave vote, demanding an immediate re-run.IanB2 said:
Yep, he as good as suggested she isn't up to what lies ahead and should step down. Without being unnecessarily rude about it.Roger said:George O is VERY good on radio 4. When the history of Mrs May's many mistakes comes to be written her firing of him might come to be though of as her most egregious
Meanwhile the petition (which he has signed) should achieve 4,000,000 very soon. Oddly the only previous petition that just passed four million also did so on the Saturday of an anti-Brexit demonstration, if a much smaller one.
Sore losers then. Bitter losers now.
That one?
There’s no great stand for democracy here. The cynicism is extraordinary.
Leavers love democracy and that's why they don't want another referendum and would have accepted the result if it went against them, while the democracy-hating Remainers signed a petition for another referendum.
A referendum set up by (democracy-loving) Leavers who thought they were going to lose and didn't want to accept the result if it went against them...0 -
Private schooling will be hollowed out for plenty of the middle class. The obsession with very expensive sports facilities that only the rich can afford over simply providing a top notch education has grown and grown.JosiasJessop said:
That's such a shame. Several of my family (and more friends) attended AB, and I went to another school in the group.ydoethur said:Incidentally, when I was criticising Labour's policy on school fees and saying it would raise no money and inflict much higher costs on state schools, many people scoffed at me.
They might benefit from reading this story:
https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/burton/abbots-bromley-school-closure-2669716
That is because of pension changes which have increased employer costs by 7%. It will not be the last school to close this summer as a result.
What do people think will happen if costs rise by 20%?
It was a good place.0 -
Yep, they've been the epitome of sore winners from June 24 2016 onwards.Theuniondivvie said:
Tbf they already seem to be in a perpetual state of pissed off-ness.GIN1138 said:
And now by cancelling Brexit on 29th she's pissed off the 17.4m who voted leave...Roger said:Even the most primitive leaders realize that they are not just leaders for the half that voted for them but also the half that didn't. Even Mrs Thatcher paid lip service to it
Mrs May has done everything to alienate the 16,5 million who voted Remain and this alone is why she's now such a dismal failure.0 -
But we will be leaving very soon, and any rejoining terms will be so punitive we ain’t ever going back..Ishmael_Z said:
No, i wasnt fussed in 2016 whether we stayed or left. I have only developed strong feelings on the matter since it became clear that leave's attempt to leave was degenerating into what you yourself call "a monstrous nightmare". So even on your infantile "yah boo sucks" level, you fail. Numpty.notme2 said:
People who didn’t want to leave are still stamping their feet’s. Of course i’ll be triumphant. No Conservative prime minister is going to offer a second referendum, the only question is on how we will leave, leave will be done. The stamping of feet is so pleasurable to see, the impotence is so utterly delicious that it makes the whole monstrous nightmare worth while just to expose these people.Ishmael_Z said:
Do fuck off, you silly little man. Do you really think, looking around you, that leave has anything to be triumphalist about just now?notme2 said:
The sore losers you mean.Recidivist said:
The people are out on the streets, but the elites are just sneering condescendingly at them to put it another way.old_labour said:I have just remembered there is going to be a smorgasbord of smugness snaking its way through the streets of London today.
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But since there is no plausible Leaver candidate fit to run a sub-post office - including a closed one - that may not be an issue in 36 months.DougSeal said:
He is untainted by this mess to be sure but his enthusiasm for Remain in 2016 will not ender him to the membership.ydoethur said:
You wonder if Osborne isn't secretly rather glad he's missing all of this. He could return to Parliament and become PM in the not too distant future as the person untainted by this mess and with a new perspective on life. After all, he's still not quite 48.Theuniondivvie said:
I think Portillo's rejection & change story is probably why he (slightly mystifyingly to me) is quite popular. Pastel coloured jackets and occasional self-deprecation go some way to obliterating the memory of his ghastly, onanistic SAS speech.matt said:
Being rejected generally changes people. I suspect that you would not have been so kind were he still Chancellor. Although I agree that was a catastrophic error and one I would think was pushed by people who did May’s thinking for her.Roger said:George O is VERY good on radio 4. When the history of Mrs May's many mistakes comes to be written her firing of him might come to be though of as her most egregious
Addendum- Michael Portillo remains for me the best example of rejection and change. Albeit I think he is a wooden and suboptimal television presenter, it’s clear that I’m in the minority.0 -
Based on what evidence?Casino_Royale said:
My numbers aren’t made up there are completely factually based.IanB2 said:
We await your own made-up numbers with eager anticipationCasino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
I urge everyone to be very alert today to PV spin and propaganda. Because it will be coming.0 -
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Happy birthday to PB, it provides a comfortably uncomfortable place for this contrarian Nat to kick against the pricks (no names, no pack drill).0
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I must add my congratulations to Mike and the team for the continued success of the site.
Without it, I doubt very much I would have had the opportunity to spend hundreds of pounds on a share of a racehorse.
That raced twice...
Well done, Mr Smithson
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Casino_Royale said:
Today’s organisers will certainly overcook the numbers.Recidivist said:
You are proposing that they have made up the numbers before the march has even assembled? Maybe a bit of a closed mind there?Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
And you won’t undercook them?0 -
Happy Birthday PB. I was an earlyish contributor in circa 2005 as I was reading PB from my work station.0
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Casino - go back to bed and get some rest man.
Your anguish will pass.0 -
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/1109389333675556864CarlottaVance said:Nothing else on today, is there?
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The numbers will certainly be made up.DougSeal said:
It hasn’t even started yet. How can they be making up numbers? And you’re not doing a very good job of ignoring it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Here’s how it works: organisers start by saying they expect “tens of thousands” to attend in friendly newspapers, thus setting expectations low (see here, for an example: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-march-london-put-it-to-the-people-live-updates-article-50-a8836386.html) they know at this time what their true numbers will be from their pledges, coaches, trains and organisers, which I expect today will be in the 300-350k box.
Later on they’ll declare the numbers to be “way above expectations” and go for the highest number they can credibly defend, and they’ll want it to be higher than 700k and, ideally, get a headline saying it’s “close to a million”.
This is spin. This is politics. This is how it WORKS.
And, they are advised by Alastair Campbell. Who is very very good at it.0 -
Don't know. There's no actual date for when we leave now and my suspicion is that now 29th March has slipped it's probably not going to happen at all.DougSeal said:
More of a postponement than a cancellation surely?GIN1138 said:
And now by cancelling Brexit on 29th she's pissed off the 17.4m who voted leave...Roger said:Even the most primitive leaders realize that they are not just leaders for the half that voted for them but also the half that didn't. Even Mrs Thatcher paid lip service to it
Mrs May has done everything to alienate the 16,5 million who voted Remain and this alone is why she's now such a dismal failure.
Leavers best route to Brexit may be a second referendum and a "tell them again" campaign which I suspect would be highly successful?0 -
And private schools have not been able to maintain the differential between public funded schools. The government largesse on state schooling leaves them unable to offer much extras. If you have a nice expensive home in the right area of town you are likely to have pretty good access to a first rate primary or secondary school.Pulpstar said:
Private schooling will be hollowed out for plenty of the middle class. The obsession with very expensive sports facilities that only the rich can afford over simply providing a top notch education has grown and grown.JosiasJessop said:
That's such a shame. Several of my family (and more friends) attended AB, and I went to another school in the group.ydoethur said:Incidentally, when I was criticising Labour's policy on school fees and saying it would raise no money and inflict much higher costs on state schools, many people scoffed at me.
They might benefit from reading this story:
https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/burton/abbots-bromley-school-closure-2669716
That is because of pension changes which have increased employer costs by 7%. It will not be the last school to close this summer as a result.
What do people think will happen if costs rise by 20%?
It was a good place.0 -
Why are people trying to undermine today’s march before it happens? They seem a little worried about it. Surely with Brexit so righteous and popular it will be a damp squib. Leavers should be more confident.0
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Great news! My son goes to high school in September. Literally across the playing fields from us is a newish build Academy - wonderful facilities, great staff and a great headteacher. The problem was that the multi academy trust were Godawful - the news this morning is that they are disposing of the school and we can forge a better future without them0
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All to play for._Anazina_ said:IanB2 said:
We await your own made-up numbers with eager anticipationCasino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Remember, unless today’s Remain march can identify at least 51 attendees, it will have been beaten by the Leave march.0 -
No.DougSeal said:Casino_Royale said:
Today’s organisers will certainly overcook the numbers.Recidivist said:
You are proposing that they have made up the numbers before the march has even assembled? Maybe a bit of a closed mind there?Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
And you won’t undercook them?0 -
Since the only part of Abbot's Bromley that made a profit was its swimming pool, I'm not sure I agree.Pulpstar said:
Private schooling will be hollowed out for plenty of the middle class. The obsession with very expensive sports facilities that only the rich can afford over simply providing a top notch education has grown and grown.JosiasJessop said:
That's such a shame. Several of my family (and more friends) attended AB, and I went to another school in the group.ydoethur said:Incidentally, when I was criticising Labour's policy on school fees and saying it would raise no money and inflict much higher costs on state schools, many people scoffed at me.
They might benefit from reading this story:
https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/burton/abbots-bromley-school-closure-2669716
That is because of pension changes which have increased employer costs by 7%. It will not be the last school to close this summer as a result.
What do people think will happen if costs rise by 20%?
It was a good place.
In fact, the only really major cost for private schools are staff salaries, which tend to be about 10% higher than in state schools. That, on its own, is one reason why pensions are proving disastrous.
And that, in turn, means state schools are facing huge hikes in pension contributions next year to make up the shortfall as private schools close or withdraw. Coupled with frozen pay and collapsing staff retention rates, I'm expecting soaring staff/student ratios and wondering when the strikes will happen.0 -
The target of 51 attendees to beat the Leave march has been set. Leave have points on the board - and it’s not a gimme by any means.Jonathan said:Why are people trying to undermine today’s march before it happens? They seem a little worried about it. Surely with Brexit so righteous and popular it will be a damp squib. Leavers should be more confident.
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Congratulations on the anniversary. I cannot remember how I came across the site but have been looking at the site for a long time and contributing for a long time, originally as ChrisP. My current moniker was suggested during a confusing conversation which included two other Posters called Chris!
The real strength of the site is the range of opinions and experiences. A real hallmark of this site over others is that people are mostly genuinely respectful and polite even where we don’t agree. Thanks to all the admins, contributors and other posters for supporting the site.0 -
I’m good, cheers._Anazina_ said:Casino - go back to bed and get some rest man.
Your anguish will pass.
I just hate spin and bullshit, which is at the heart of today’s march in both its message and its size.
If you want me to say some generous I’ll say this: I have a modicum of respect for those signing the latest petition to revoke article 50 unilaterally, because at least they’ve broken cover and are being honest.0 -
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CasinoRoyale’s pissboiling contempt of democratic protest is a fantastic example of the general attempt by Brexiters to run roughshod over the rights of at least 48% of the country.0
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Are you insinuating that there were in fact fewer than the published 50 attendees at the recent Leave march?Casino_Royale said:
The numbers will certainly be made up.DougSeal said:
It hasn’t even started yet. How can they be making up numbers? And you’re not doing a very good job of ignoring it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Here’s how it works: organisers start by saying they expect “tens of thousands” to attend in friendly newspapers, thus setting expectations low (see here, for an example: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-march-london-put-it-to-the-people-live-updates-article-50-a8836386.html) they know at this time what their true numbers will be from their pledges, coaches, trains and organisers, which I expect today will be in the 300-350k box.
Later on they’ll declare the numbers to be “way above expectations” and go for the highest number they can credibly defend, and they’ll want it to be higher than 700k and, ideally, get a headline saying it’s “close to a million”.
This is spin. This is politics. This is how it WORKS.
And, they are advised by Alastair Campbell. Who is very very good at it.0 -
The implication of that post is that there are some MATs that are not godawful.RochdalePioneers said:Great news! My son goes to high school in September. Literally across the playing fields from us is a newish build Academy - wonderful facilities, great staff and a great headteacher. The problem was that the multi academy trust were Godawful - the news this morning is that they are disposing of the school and we can forge a better future without them
Which ones would they be?
I'll happily work in standalone academies, but never ever again in an MAT.0 -
I don't know why they are even having a "People's Vote" march. Brexit has been cancelled by Theresa May and the government.Jonathan said:Why are people trying to undermine today’s march before it happens? They seem a little worried about it. Surely with Brexit so righteous and popular it will be a damp squib. Leavers should be more confident.
For Remainers things couldn't be going any better at this point... A referendum is probably more dangerous to Remainers than the current course which is just to gradually kick the thing into the long grass and very slowly strange Brexit at birth.0 -
I've a hunch(back) you should put some spine into your comments ....OldKingCole said:
As I'm a Remainer with a very uncomfortable post-operative back, am I classified as a sore loser?Casino_Royale said:
My numbers aren’t made up there are completely factually based.IanB2 said:
We await your own made-up numbers with eager anticipationCasino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
I urge everyone to be very alert today to PV spin and propaganda. Because it will be coming.0 -
GLA reports, police estimates (unpublished) and academic analysis.DougSeal said:
Based on what evidence?Casino_Royale said:
My numbers aren’t made up there are completely factually based.IanB2 said:
We await your own made-up numbers with eager anticipationCasino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
I urge everyone to be very alert today to PV spin and propaganda. Because it will be coming.
A lie travels half-way round the world before the truth gets its trousers on.
The Met police never challenged the original fantasy PV estimate of “700k”, which itself was a travesty and probably a political decision within the organisation, so the propaganda number was never publicly contested and became gospel.
It is now repeatedly quoted by mindless lazy morons incapable of thinking or analysing for themselves, and the public is misled.0 -
I would grab this with both hands, but I’m not an ERG zealot or a revoking hypocrite.HYUFD said:
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Corbyn literally travelling hundreds of miles to avoid the march. At least he didn’t join the Leave marchScott_P said:
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/1109389333675556864CarlottaVance said:Nothing else on today, is there?
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Congratulations on creating the biggest straw man and non sequitur of the day.Gardenwalker said:CasinoRoyale’s pissboiling contempt of democratic protest is a fantastic example of the general attempt by Brexiters to run roughshod over the rights of at least 48% of the country.
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Chill and read this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inauguration_of_Donald_TrumpCasino_Royale said:
The numbers will certainly be made up.DougSeal said:
It hasn’t even started yet. How can they be making up numbers? And you’re not doing a very good job of ignoring it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Here’s how it works: organisers start by saying they expect “tens of thousands” to attend in friendly newspapers, thus setting expectations low (see here, for an example: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-march-london-put-it-to-the-people-live-updates-article-50-a8836386.html) they know at this time what their true numbers will be from their pledges, coaches, trains and organisers, which I expect today will be in the 300-350k box.
Later on they’ll declare the numbers to be “way above expectations” and go for the highest number they can credibly defend, and they’ll want it to be higher than 700k and, ideally, get a headline saying it’s “close to a million”.
This is spin. This is politics. This is how it WORKS.
And, they are advised by Alastair Campbell. Who is very very good at it.
Scroll down to crowd size. The police and drone or helicopter photos will give some objective numbers, plus it seems there is such a thing as a professor of crowd science, so there.0 -
Call me an absurd optimist, but I think we can do it!!_Anazina_ said:
The target of 51 attendees to beat the Leave march has been set. Leave have points on the board - and it’s not a gimme by any means.Jonathan said:Why are people trying to undermine today’s march before it happens? They seem a little worried about it. Surely with Brexit so righteous and popular it will be a damp squib. Leavers should be more confident.
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Congratulations Mike, Robert, and TSE, on the enduring success of this site.
As a denizen of the Betfair forums at the time I'm sure I must have started reading almost immediately, though I can't recall when I made my first post. The 2005 General Election was the first one I was in (joint) charge of producing odds for. I was working for Ladbrokes at the time; I moved to Staffordshire and bet365 a few years later.
I hugely value the diversity of this site and have certainly been influenced by the arguments made from across the spectrum, both above and below the line. Seeing your opponents' point of view more clearly can never be a hindrance: you can choose to use it as it way of sharpening your rebuttal, or as part of a process of synthesis. I recall learning in school debating competitions that the way to win a debate is not to take pot shots at your opponents' weaker points or ill-chosen examples, but to take on the core argument they are making.
But obviously many of us here hold our core beliefs sufficiently strongly that we are not likely to persuade each other: nevertheless the exercise is still useful and also helps us all to disagree in good humour (for the most part).
Thank you too for hosting my thoughts above the line from time to time. The array of contributors you have persuaded to post there also serves as a testament to the quality of the audience you have built. Particular thanks to those who have produced posts week-in and week-out: Sean Fear in the earlier days; and David Herdson for what must be getting close to a decade? And of course Alastair Meeks & Cyclefree have been particularly prolific in the last couple of years.
Last but not least, this site has been an enduring source of betting value. Thanks to everyone who's provided tips and insight. I'll gently remind OGH that I have a 100/1 tip for next President currently trading at 9/1; wouldn't it be a shame to see the famous 50/1 Obama tip eclipsed? [Roger: "No"]
PB.com has been a huge part of my ever-more-political life for the last 15 years. Thank you once again for both the idea and the execution.
Aaron0 -
I’m talking about the PV march._Anazina_ said:
Are you insinuating that there were in fact fewer than the published 50 attendees at the recent Leave march?Casino_Royale said:
The numbers will certainly be made up.DougSeal said:
It hasn’t even started yet. How can they be making up numbers? And you’re not doing a very good job of ignoring it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Here’s how it works: organisers start by saying they expect “tens of thousands” to attend in friendly newspapers, thus setting expectations low (see here, for an example: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-march-london-put-it-to-the-people-live-updates-article-50-a8836386.html) they know at this time what their true numbers will be from their pledges, coaches, trains and organisers, which I expect today will be in the 300-350k box.
Later on they’ll declare the numbers to be “way above expectations” and go for the highest number they can credibly defend, and they’ll want it to be higher than 700k and, ideally, get a headline saying it’s “close to a million”.
This is spin. This is politics. This is how it WORKS.
And, they are advised by Alastair Campbell. Who is very very good at it.
I’m not interesting in march size dick-measuring beteeen PV and LeavemeansLeave as the true measure of the support of both.0 -
Very many congratulations Mike.
This is a great site and my go to place for news and comment, with some really interesting and informative comments below the line. I first came across it in 2007 and lurked for a long time before venturing a comment. I also want to thank you for publishing my articles. It is a privilege.
And I am finally putting a bet on! There’s no point rushing these things. 0 -
PV are the Trumpians.Ishmael_Z said:
Chill and read this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inauguration_of_Donald_TrumpCasino_Royale said:
The numbers will certainly be made up.DougSeal said:
It hasn’t even started yet. How can they be making up numbers? And you’re not doing a very good job of ignoring it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Here’s how it works: organisers start by saying they expect “tens of thousands” to attend in friendly newspapers, thus setting expectations low (see here, for an example: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-march-london-put-it-to-the-people-live-updates-article-50-a8836386.html) they know at this time what their true numbers will be from their pledges, coaches, trains and organisers, which I expect today will be in the 300-350k box.
Later on they’ll declare the numbers to be “way above expectations” and go for the highest number they can credibly defend, and they’ll want it to be higher than 700k and, ideally, get a headline saying it’s “close to a million”.
This is spin. This is politics. This is how it WORKS.
And, they are advised by Alastair Campbell. Who is very very good at it.
Scroll down to crowd size. The police and drone or helicopter photos will give some objective numbers, plus it seems there is such a thing as a professor of crowd science, so there.
He overestimated his crowd size, just like them.0 -
The amount of scalding piss around nowadays will surely result in a condition named Leavers' Urethra entering future medical textbooks.Gardenwalker said:CasinoRoyale’s pissboiling contempt of democratic protest is a fantastic example of the general attempt by Brexiters to run roughshod over the rights of at least 48% of the country.
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On what?Cyclefree said:Very many congratulations Mike.
This is a great site and my go to place for news and comment, with some really interesting and informative comments below the line. I first came across it in 2007 and lurked for a long time before venturing a comment. I also want to thank you for publishing my articles. It is a privilege.
And I am finally putting a bet on! There’s no point rushing these things.0 -
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CR, sincere advice. Breathe. Turn off the media. Go for a walk. Play with the little one. Today will just be one long wind up exercise for you. It will pass. Best ignored. Keep your powder dry for next week.0
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I always find it easier to assess events after they have actually happened. Chill.Casino_Royale said:
PV are the Trumpians.Ishmael_Z said:
Chill and read this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inauguration_of_Donald_TrumpCasino_Royale said:
The numbers will certainly be made up.DougSeal said:
It hasn’t even started yet. How can they be making up numbers? And you’re not doing a very good job of ignoring it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Here’s how it works: organisers start by saying they expect “tens of thousands” to attend in friendly newspapers, thus setting expectations low (see here, for an example: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-march-london-put-it-to-the-people-live-updates-article-50-a8836386.html) they know at this time what their true numbers will be from their pledges, coaches, trains and organisers, which I expect today will be in the 300-350k box.
Later on they’ll declare the numbers to be “way above expectations” and go for the highest number they can credibly defend, and they’ll want it to be higher than 700k and, ideally, get a headline saying it’s “close to a million”.
This is spin. This is politics. This is how it WORKS.
And, they are advised by Alastair Campbell. Who is very very good at it.
Scroll down to crowd size. The police and drone or helicopter photos will give some objective numbers, plus it seems there is such a thing as a professor of crowd science, so there.
He overestimated his crowd size, just like them.0 -
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I agree, but I’m altering people to the (inevitable) bullshit spin so they are alert to it when it happens later today and viewing it with a sceptical eye.Ishmael_Z said:
I always find it easier to assess events after they have actually happened. Chill.Casino_Royale said:
PV are the Trumpians.Ishmael_Z said:
Chill and read this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inauguration_of_Donald_TrumpCasino_Royale said:
The numbers will certainly be made up.DougSeal said:
It hasn’t even started yet. How can they be making up numbers? And you’re not doing a very good job of ignoring it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Here’s how it works: organisers start by saying they expect “tens of thousands” to attend in friendly newspapers, thus setting expectations low (see here, for an example: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-march-london-put-it-to-the-people-live-updates-article-50-a8836386.html) they know at this time what their true numbers will be from their pledges, coaches, trains and organisers, which I expect today will be in the 300-350k box.
Later on they’ll declare the numbers to be “way above expectations” and go for the highest number they can credibly defend, and they’ll want it to be higher than 700k and, ideally, get a headline saying it’s “close to a million”.
This is spin. This is politics. This is how it WORKS.
And, they are advised by Alastair Campbell. Who is very very good at it.
Scroll down to crowd size. The police and drone or helicopter photos will give some objective numbers, plus it seems there is such a thing as a professor of crowd science, so there.
He overestimated his crowd size, just like them.
I wouldn’t have to if the authorities did their job properly.0 -
You can indeed, but ignoring what other people think and continuing to plough the same furrow isn't proving a particularly successful strategy for Theresa May right now.Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Oh, and happy birthday PB, and thank you to Smithsons senior, junior, TSE and all. Alternately insightful and exasperating but that's as it should be, and quite the most compelling political site at the moment. I live in hope that one day it will move off the Web 0.5 platform that is Vanilla...0 -
I can't tell from that tweet which side he's on in the Brexit debate.HYUFD said:0 -
I tend to agree. What's the point of spending £300 K educating two children privately, when you can use the same money to move to a place with good State schools, and still have a valuable asset?notme2 said:
And private schools have not been able to maintain the differential between public funded schools. The government largesse on state schooling leaves them unable to offer much extras. If you have a nice expensive home in the right area of town you are likely to have pretty good access to a first rate primary or secondary school.Pulpstar said:
Private schooling will be hollowed out for plenty of the middle class. The obsession with very expensive sports facilities that only the rich can afford over simply providing a top notch education has grown and grown.JosiasJessop said:
That's such a shame. Several of my family (and more friends) attended AB, and I went to another school in the group.ydoethur said:Incidentally, when I was criticising Labour's policy on school fees and saying it would raise no money and inflict much higher costs on state schools, many people scoffed at me.
They might benefit from reading this story:
https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/burton/abbots-bromley-school-closure-2669716
That is because of pension changes which have increased employer costs by 7%. It will not be the last school to close this summer as a result.
What do people think will happen if costs rise by 20%?
It was a good place.0 -
Congratulations on the site. I think I came here within a couple of months of it starting.0
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Happy birthday to PB!
I've not been here nearly as long as most but have been reading for a few years and posting regularly more recently. A great source of discussion, information and analysis. And puns.0 -
Congratulations to PB, the best politics site on the internet.0
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Humour is the thing that keeps the site punning smoothly.solarflare said:Happy birthday to PB!
I've not been here nearly as long as most but have been reading for a few years and posting regularly more recently. A great source of discussion, information and analysis. And puns.
I'll get my coat.
Have a good weekend.0 -
Congrats to the PB team. The articles always take an interesting and non-partisan approach, and the comment section is really one of the few (only?) political forums worth participating in. I go through phases of posting and lurking but have been reading the site for a few years now, and through some excellent tips posted here (particularly whoever tipped Lab to hold Yns Mons at 12/1 in the last election, thank you!) I'm a bit richer thanks to PB as well!0
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Good to hear from you, Stuart. We crossed swords here many years ago. I was "Alan" or "Alan J" back then.StuartDickson said:Congratulations Mike and Robert. I’m pretty sure I predate Nick Palmer then-MP and Mr Herdson, both fine writers. I miss some of the former contributors, and was sorry to hear of the passing away of Mark Senior. Never an easy man to cross swords with, he was an astonishingly talented and well-informed advocate for his cause. I’m only popping in cos the provocative SeanT happened to say something nice about me, in passing, a few months ago. Another successful poke, or boot, from the bon viveur. Politicalbetting.com has, like all media outlets, it’s strengths and weaknesses, and I’m not sure that you two are fully aware of what they are. But on a personal level, the wise Mr Meeks (then Antifrank) once said something accurate about the world being full of transmitters and receivers, and that I was most definitely a transmitter. One of the strengths of PB is that it has nudged me a little way along the continuum to being a receiver. A minor achievement for you, but a bit of an eye-opener for me.
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The petition map site is b0rked too at the moment, but last night it was showing some truly remarkable numbers in Remainia Profonde. Both Cambridge and Bristol West were well above 15%, nudging 20%. Boston and Skegness was, shall we say, a little lower.0
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Presumably though your analysis would suggest the Leave march numbers were inflated? A shocking allegation Casino!Casino_Royale said:
I’m talking about the PV march._Anazina_ said:
Are you insinuating that there were in fact fewer than the published 50 attendees at the recent Leave march?Casino_Royale said:
The numbers will certainly be made up.DougSeal said:
It hasn’t even started yet. How can they be making up numbers? And you’re not doing a very good job of ignoring it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Here’s how it works: organisers start by saying they expect “tens of thousands” to attend in friendly newspapers, thus setting expectations low (see here, for an example: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-march-london-put-it-to-the-people-live-updates-article-50-a8836386.html) they know at this time what their true numbers will be from their pledges, coaches, trains and organisers, which I expect today will be in the 300-350k box.
Later on they’ll declare the numbers to be “way above expectations” and go for the highest number they can credibly defend, and they’ll want it to be higher than 700k and, ideally, get a headline saying it’s “close to a million”.
This is spin. This is politics. This is how it WORKS.
And, they are advised by Alastair Campbell. Who is very very good at it.
I’m not interesting in march size dick-measuring beteeen PV and LeavemeansLeave as the true measure of the support of both.0 -
Isn't that the satirical Corbynite twitter account?HYUFD said:
e.g.
https://twitter.com/CorbynSuperFan/status/10982873341000335360 -
Both Corbyn and May need to pivot to Common Market 2.0 shortly or the FBPE lot are going to depose Corbyn and the Tories will lose power for a long long time.Casino_Royale said:0 -
On the train to London. Not for the March but for a show my daughter is in. Very busy, not helped by the original train being cancelled. Lots of EU flags and support on display in the train and good natured.
I may have voted LEAVE but I’ve got to admit May has made a complete hash of the process.
I wish she’d resign, though that wouldn’t necessarily help with the LOTO even worse!0 -
A generation or more back one of the advantages of a private education was how it would increase the chances of a university education.Sean_F said:
I tend to agree. What's the point of spending £300 K educating two children privately, when you can use the same money to move to a place with good State schools, and still have a valuable asset?notme2 said:
And private schools have not been able to maintain the differential between public funded schools. The government largesse on state schooling leaves them unable to offer much extras. If you have a nice expensive home in the right area of town you are likely to have pretty good access to a first rate primary or secondary school.Pulpstar said:
Private schooling will be hollowed out for plenty of the middle class. The obsession with very expensive sports facilities that only the rich can afford over simply providing a top notch education has grown and grown.JosiasJessop said:
That's such a shame. Several of my family (and more friends) attended AB, and I went to another school in the group.ydoethur said:Incidentally, when I was criticising Labour's policy on school fees and saying it would raise no money and inflict much higher costs on state schools, many people scoffed at me.
They might benefit from reading this story:
https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/burton/abbots-bromley-school-closure-2669716
That is because of pension changes which have increased employer costs by 7%. It will not be the last school to close this summer as a result.
What do people think will happen if costs rise by 20%?
It was a good place.
But with it now be much easier but much more expensive to go to university that reason has effectively disappeared.0 -
Those properly-weighted opinion polls also indicate that people do not now want to leave.Casino_Royale said:
Irrelevant. The policy decision was taken by national vote and its current measure of support is tested through properly weighted opinion polls, not self-selecting marches and petitions.Gardenwalker said:
How’s the Brexit petition and march going?Casino_Royale said:
It’s quite funny how the “people’s vote” march today has been overtaken by those who want to skip that step and jump straight to unilateral revocation.IanB2 said:4,000,239
And they are precisely the same people.
We can ignore their march today just as we can ignore their made-up numbers.
Nothing is settled yet and therefore remainers are absolutely right to keep up the pressure for a second referendum etc.
Whether you like it or not today's march will be compared to Farage's pitiful effort (is it still going?) and people will notice. Same with the petition, 4 million signatories in a few days is newsworthy and it's getting plenty of coverage. It's all about shaping the political narrative and where we go from here. Remainers are winning the PR battle hands dow. It may not ultimately matter but you can't blame them from trying.0 -
Thomas
Risky. Public expressions of confidence can come back to bite you.0 -
That is a fair evaluation of TM. A mediocre politician but made to look worse by circumstances. Like you, I doubt that anybody else would have done materially better with the hospital pass of Brexit.Big_G_NorthWales said:TM is nearing the end of the road let down by brexiteers with an unrealistic agenda and remainers who never accepted the result
She attempted a compromise that is a good deal and respects the vote without completely destroying business and would have generated goodwill throughout Europe if it had passed first time
TM has many flaws but I doubt anyone could have achieved a harmonious departure from the EU
I cannot see the point in her going now but she must be running out of time and I expect a successor election from May, with a new PM by summer with a GE to follow fairly soon after
Oh and that's good news that you are no longer so down on that GENERAL ELECTION that is coming. Wonder who will win it, Corbyn or Gove?
:-)0 -
The Tories are going to lose power for a long time whatever happens.Pulpstar said:
Both Corbyn and May need to pivot to Common Market 2.0 shortly or the FBPE lot are going to depose Corbyn and the Tories will lose power for a long long time.Casino_Royale said:
It's all over.0 -
Very late edit: for "referendum" in the last sentence, read "petition"Andy_Cooke said:
It does rather illustrate the double-standards on offer.Casino_Royale said:
Which just goes to further prove my point about how it’s about the ends not the means.Andy_Cooke said:
The one set up by Leavers in advance of the vote because they thought they were going to lose?Casino_Royale said:
The biggest petition ever was the one in June 2016, straight after the Leave vote, demanding an immediate re-run.IanB2 said:
Yep, he as good as suggested she isn't up to what lies ahead and should step down. Without being unnecessarily rude about it.Roger said:George O is VERY good on radio 4. When the history of Mrs May's many mistakes comes to be written her firing of him might come to be though of as her most egregious
Meanwhile the petition (which he has signed) should achieve 4,000,000 very soon. Oddly the only previous petition that just passed four million also did so on the Saturday of an anti-Brexit demonstration, if a much smaller one.
Sore losers then. Bitter losers now.
That one?
There’s no great stand for democracy here. The cynicism is extraordinary.
Leavers love democracy and that's why they don't want another referendum and would have accepted the result if it went against them, while the democracy-hating Remainers signed a petition for another referendum.
A referendum set up by (democracy-loving) Leavers who thought they were going to lose and didn't want to accept the result if it went against them...
D'Oh.0 -
Good to see you posting. Any views on the Scottish dimension of the current imbroglio?StuartDickson said:Congratulations Mike and Robert. I’m pretty sure I predate Nick Palmer then-MP and Mr Herdson, both fine writers. I miss some of the former contributors, and was sorry to hear of the passing away of Mark Senior. Never an easy man to cross swords with, he was an astonishingly talented and well-informed advocate for his cause. I’m only popping in cos the provocative SeanT happened to say something nice about me, in passing, a few months ago. Another successful poke, or boot, from the bon viveur. Politicalbetting.com has, like all media outlets, it’s strengths and weaknesses, and I’m not sure that you two are fully aware of what they are. But on a personal level, the wise Mr Meeks (then Antifrank) once said something accurate about the world being full of transmitters and receivers, and that I was most definitely a transmitter. One of the strengths of PB is that it has nudged me a little way along the continuum to being a receiver. A minor achievement for you, but a bit of an eye-opener for me.
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Standing room only on Midland Main Line, full of Remainiacs 0
