politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At this critical time a look at matters of Confidence in the p
Comments
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Are we prepared for no deal? If so, what preparations have been taken for no deal? Can we be reasonably certain the economy won't fall off a cliff? Etc. I want to leave, but I want to leave in an orderly manner. If that's not possible then the other options, however unpalatable, have to be considered. There's a case for revoke now to reset the clock to prepare for an orderly no deal. I can't see the case for crashing out to no deal when as far as I can see the government have made no preparations for that event.Philip_Thompson said:
I see no real world evidence that no deal will be more damaging than ongoing uncertainty for years or the damage to trust and confidence that a revocation would cause.kyf_100 said:
It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.rottenborough said:
Feels like it is GE or No Deal to me.AlastairMeeks said:
Parliament has a binary choice. If it wants to stop no deal then it can ratify the only deal before it. If it wants to reject the deal, we can go to no deal. It really needs to be one of those two options and the decision needs to be made within the next week - it would be grossly negligent to continue this farce beyond that.
Of course if we crash out to no deal and it ends up being a black Wednesday event (something that looked terrible for the economy in the weeks following the event, but ultimately was the right decision for the economy) then I will be happy to eat my words. But right now the thought of no deal terrifies me. I've been fairly consistent here in supporting May's deal since it was first announced. But if Parliament isn't wiling to vote for it, I'm not willing to risk jumping off the edge into the unknown. For me, it's an unacceptable level of risk. I can't be the only leaver thinking this. Can I?0 -
Yeah but he's the absolubte BOYFrancisUrquhart said:
I know he's the messiah, but in 7 days....at the rate the EU operates...be more of a miracle than water into wine and the feed the 5000 from seven loaves and fishes.CarlottaVance said:He's cracked it!
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.
Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.
“Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter0 -
Laura Kuenssberg
Verified account @bbclaurak
Macron suggesting if MP s reject her deal again, we are en route to no deal, rather than long extension
fuck fuck fuck fuck...
Unless we revoke presumable...0 -
The idiot is talking about the future relationship. He doesn't even know what he's doingCarlottaVance said:He's cracked it!
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.
Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.
“Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter0 -
I presume you're including those supporters of Tessy's deal among the outwitted?Sean_F said:
Outwitted by a moron.YBarddCwsc said:
Indeed. It is yet another form of displacement activity.Andrew said:
Honestly, and without meaning to be rude .... but who cares? We already know there are many millions of remainers out there. A meaningless petition, and one without any verification of identity, is rather useless.anothernick said:
Adding about 1000 per minute at the moment. Should get to 1m soon after 3pm...
If the Remainers in Parliament (and there abundantly many of them) don't want No Deal, they have the numbers to do something about it.
They have been outwitted by thickos like Francois.0 -
Like Farage, as other people have mentioned, he probably has a complex about his French background.Pulpstar said:Francois looked like he could hardly believe his luck on the TV last night. Who'd have thunk it, a "Francois" celebrating Monsieur Macron.
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Off-topic, but interesting snippet in Kevin Maguire's New Statesman column:
"Lib Dem staff are launching a covert ABC campaign – Anyone But Charmless – with resignations predicted should the brusque Jo “charmless” Swinson replace Vince Cable. My snout claims the Karl Marx of Twickenham was driven to despair by his deputy. I’m told he secretly favours Oxford’s Layla Moran."0 -
Well given he never read the full WA what do you expect.dyedwoolie said:
The idiot is talking about the future relationship. He doesn't even know what he's doingCarlottaVance said:He's cracked it!
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.
Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.
“Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter0 -
Which rather demolishes the "don't worry, there are moves afoot. There's zero chance the EU will push us into no deal" comment I got from a source about an hour ago.Slackbladder said:Laura Kuenssberg
Verified account @bbclaurak
Macron suggesting if MP s reject her deal again, we are en route to no deal, rather than long extension
fuck fuck fuck fuck...
Unless we revoke presumable...
Things are slipping away from both May and May's succcessor's options at an increasing rate of knots.
Deal
No Deal
Revoke
Whatever option - it'll all be over next Friday. No extension.0 -
Laura Kuensberg said fuck fuck fuck fuck??Slackbladder said:Laura Kuenssberg
Verified account @bbclaurak
Macron suggesting if MP s reject her deal again, we are en route to no deal, rather than long extension
fuck fuck fuck fuck...
Unless we revoke presumable...0 -
Surely committing to parliament input and some control over the future relationship negotiation gets the deal through? Then renege once we are out0
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The Withdrawal Act talks about "Exit Day", and although it is set as March 29th, that can be amended by a minister "by regulation", which I think we've established needs a simple vote in each house.JoeJamesBroughton said:A delay I would have thought needs full legislation because the exit date is already on the Statute Book with Royal Assent. So what new is going to be achieved with more time? Business will quite soon invest if we press on now. We will look back and wonder what all the fuss was about. A bit more British spirit rather than metropolitan liberal snowflake spirit needed.
While we're in statute book corner, the FTPA says a replacement government can obtain the confidence of the House *within* the fortnight before an election's called:
An early parliamentary general election is also to take place if—
(a)the House of Commons passes a motion in the form set out in subsection (4), and
(b)the period of 14 days after the day on which that motion is passed ends without the House passing a motion in the form set out in subsection (5).0 -
Fair point.Theuniondivvie said:
I presume you're including those supporters of Tessy's deal among the outwitted?Sean_F said:
Outwitted by a moron.YBarddCwsc said:
Indeed. It is yet another form of displacement activity.Andrew said:
Honestly, and without meaning to be rude .... but who cares? We already know there are many millions of remainers out there. A meaningless petition, and one without any verification of identity, is rather useless.anothernick said:
Adding about 1000 per minute at the moment. Should get to 1m soon after 3pm...
If the Remainers in Parliament (and there abundantly many of them) don't want No Deal, they have the numbers to do something about it.
They have been outwitted by thickos like Francois.0 -
He’s not the messiah, he’s a very naughty goy.FrancisUrquhart said:
I know he's the messiah...CarlottaVance said:He's cracked it!
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.
Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.
“Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter0 -
I think you should make it clear where LK's comments stop and yours start. I nearly had heart failure thinking she said the 2nd sentence (if that can be called a sentence)Slackbladder said:Laura Kuenssberg
Verified account @bbclaurak
Macron suggesting if MP s reject her deal again, we are en route to no deal, rather than long extension
fuck fuck fuck fuck...
Unless we revoke presumable...0 -
He added: “Of course, if I’d known it was the real Chuka I would still have walked out, because I’m a petulant little factional lefty bitch.”Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/sw1a0aa/status/1108720994892558337Pro_Rata said:Corbyn in Brussels. Wonder if the tabloids can rustle up a Chuka Umunna lookalike to follow him round.
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The EU are right to demand a decision, rather than giving more time to faff around.RochdalePioneers said:
Which rather demolishes the "don't worry, there are moves afoot. There's zero chance the EU will push us into no deal" comment I got from a source about an hour ago.Slackbladder said:Laura Kuenssberg
Verified account @bbclaurak
Macron suggesting if MP s reject her deal again, we are en route to no deal, rather than long extension
fuck fuck fuck fuck...
Unless we revoke presumable...
Things are slipping away from both May and May's succcessor's options at an increasing rate of knots.
Deal
No Deal
Revoke
Whatever option - it'll all be over next Friday. No extension.0 -
Personally I agree. Jo doesn't have the reach needed to be an effective third party leader; she's obsessed with identity politics, and can be intensely irritating. Layla is by far the better choice, if a gamble as the chance has come her way rather earlier than would be ideal.El_Capitano said:Off-topic, but interesting snippet in Kevin Maguire's New Statesman column:
"Lib Dem staff are launching a covert ABC campaign – Anyone But Charmless – with resignations predicted should the brusque Jo “charmless” Swinson replace Vince Cable. My snout claims the Karl Marx of Twickenham was driven to despair by his deputy. I’m told he secretly favours Oxford’s Layla Moran."0 -
Yes.Theuniondivvie said:
I presume you're including those supporters of Tessy's deal among the outwitted?Sean_F said:
Outwitted by a moron.YBarddCwsc said:
Indeed. It is yet another form of displacement activity.Andrew said:
Honestly, and without meaning to be rude .... but who cares? We already know there are many millions of remainers out there. A meaningless petition, and one without any verification of identity, is rather useless.anothernick said:
Adding about 1000 per minute at the moment. Should get to 1m soon after 3pm...
If the Remainers in Parliament (and there abundantly many of them) don't want No Deal, they have the numbers to do something about it.
They have been outwitted by thickos like Francois.
It is remarkable that No Deal has support of maybe 75 odd MPs, yet it looks like we may well be getting it.
If true, then both Tessy Dealers and Remainers have screwed up big time.0 -
It might not be a bad idea to invite Barnier to address Parliament ASAP and have him explain what the negotiations are about, because it seems abundantly clear to me that a lot of people are mixing up the withdrawal, transition, and future free trade deal.dyedwoolie said:
The idiot is talking about the future relationship. He doesn't even know what he's doingCarlottaVance said:He's cracked it!
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.
Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.
“Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter0 -
Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.
"Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.
The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad20 -
Better or worse than being outwitted by a bus?Sean_F said:
Outwitted by a moron.YBarddCwsc said:
Indeed. It is yet another form of displacement activity.Andrew said:
Honestly, and without meaning to be rude .... but who cares? We already know there are many millions of remainers out there. A meaningless petition, and one without any verification of identity, is rather useless.anothernick said:
Adding about 1000 per minute at the moment. Should get to 1m soon after 3pm...
If the Remainers in Parliament (and there abundantly many of them) don't want No Deal, they have the numbers to do something about it.
They have been outwitted by thickos like Francois.0 -
Certainly it should be clearly laid out do the electorate can see the games being played hereglw said:
It might not be a bad idea to invite Barnier to address Parliament ASAP and have him explain what the negotiations are about, because it seems abundantly clear to me that a lot of people are mixing up the withdrawal, transition, and future free trade deal.dyedwoolie said:
The idiot is talking about the future relationship. He doesn't even know what he's doingCarlottaVance said:He's cracked it!
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.
Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.
“Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter0 -
We are going to be seeing MPs vote at 10pm on the 29th aren't we?WhisperingOracle said:Without a weekend recall there is indeed very little time for the Commons to organise and vote for anything. There is incredibly little time left.
"With less than hour to go before we leave the EU in a No Deal Brexit, we go over live to the House of Commons for the result of the MPs third vote on Theresa May's Deal....."0 -
Fully agree.IanB2 said:
Personally I agree. Jo doesn't have the reach needed to be an effective third party leader; she's obsessed with identity politics, and can be intensely irritating. Layla is by far the better choice, if a gamble as the chance has come her way rather earlier than would be ideal.El_Capitano said:Off-topic, but interesting snippet in Kevin Maguire's New Statesman column:
"Lib Dem staff are launching a covert ABC campaign – Anyone But Charmless – with resignations predicted should the brusque Jo “charmless” Swinson replace Vince Cable. My snout claims the Karl Marx of Twickenham was driven to despair by his deputy. I’m told he secretly favours Oxford’s Layla Moran."0 -
What we need for extra kicks and giggles is a caught on microphone comment from a corbynite about holding firm and we can pin it all on the Tories. I wouldn't be remotely shocked if one were 'manufactured'0
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The revoke Article 50 petition has hit 1 million signatures.0
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haha...kjh said:
I think you should make it clear where LK's comments stop and yours start. I nearly had heart failure thinking she said the 2nd sentence (if that can be called a sentence)Slackbladder said:Laura Kuenssberg
Verified account @bbclaurak
Macron suggesting if MP s reject her deal again, we are en route to no deal, rather than long extension
fuck fuck fuck fuck...
Unless we revoke presumable...0 -
But that is a 3 year old article that you are pretending is about today's petition. Good try but zero bananas.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.
"Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.
The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2
In other news buy bananas now - future supplies are unknown...0 -
1000000+ on the petition.0
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And until now, their only significant organisation has been one large march. That there's been such a rapid organisation presages the future.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.
"Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.
The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."
https://med.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad20 -
Petition passed 1 million.0
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16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.Theuniondivvie said:1000000+ on the petition.
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https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1108743303112081409
Owen Jones, outrider for the inner circle says what we all know 'reinforcing the EU’s anti-democratic grip on economic policy'
They want a No-Deal....0 -
I think both those points are already well understood by everyone. But thank you for the clarification.Philip_Thompson said:
16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.Theuniondivvie said:1000000+ on the petition.
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Revoking will cause a proper national emergencyScott_P said:0 -
There's a 0.96 r correlation between the 2nd ref and revoke petitions. The idea there is a whole heap of leavers for revoke out there is for the birds.eek said:
But that is a 3 year old article that you are pretending is about today's petition. Good try but zero bananas.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.
"Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.
The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2
In other news buy bananas now - future supplies are unknown...0 -
Eight days left but for the Commons the long weekend is sacrosanct. Incredible.WhisperingOracle said:Without a weekend recall there is indeed very little time for the Commons to organise and vote for anything. There is incredibly little time left.
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I wonder if he'd been prepared to also walk out if Umunna wasn't there, on the grounds that not all the party leaders were present.RochdalePioneers said:
He added: “Of course, if I’d known it was the real Chuka I would still have walked out, because I’m a petulant little factional lefty bitch.”Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/sw1a0aa/status/1108720994892558337Pro_Rata said:Corbyn in Brussels. Wonder if the tabloids can rustle up a Chuka Umunna lookalike to follow him round.
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It's there!
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0
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I think Moran has the potential to be every bit as irritating as Swinson, possibly more so.IanB2 said:
Personally I agree. Jo doesn't have the reach needed to be an effective third party leader; she's obsessed with identity politics, and can be intensely irritating. Layla is by far the better choice, if a gamble as the chance has come her way rather earlier than would be ideal.El_Capitano said:Off-topic, but interesting snippet in Kevin Maguire's New Statesman column:
"Lib Dem staff are launching a covert ABC campaign – Anyone But Charmless – with resignations predicted should the brusque Jo “charmless” Swinson replace Vince Cable. My snout claims the Karl Marx of Twickenham was driven to despair by his deputy. I’m told he secretly favours Oxford’s Layla Moran."0 -
So will No Dealdyedwoolie said:Revoking will cause a proper national emergency
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We have been in a proper national emergency for months. There are two ways out of it, revocation or no deal, and neither of them are pretty.dyedwoolie said:
Revoking will cause a proper national emergencyScott_P said:0 -
Ha!brokenwheel said:
He’s not the messiah, he’s a very naughty goy.FrancisUrquhart said:
I know he's the messiah...CarlottaVance said:He's cracked it!
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.
Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.
“Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter0 -
The correlation is still there:eek said:
But that is a 3 year old article that you are pretending is about today's petition. Good try but zero bananas.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.
"Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.
The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2
In other news buy bananas now - future supplies are unknown...
https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/11087013938363023360 -
Corrected that for you.dyedwoolie said:
You're welcome.0 -
You keep forgetting to deduct the deaths and desertions from your total.Philip_Thompson said:
16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.Theuniondivvie said:1000000+ on the petition.
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I hope that no one who was holding up the Shamima Begum petition as a powerful indication of the national mood is now belittling the notion of petitions.Philip_Thompson said:
16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.Theuniondivvie said:1000000+ on the petition.
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Another personal attack.eek said:
But that is a 3 year old article that you are pretending is about today's petition. Good try but zero bananas.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.
"Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.
The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2
In other news buy bananas now - future supplies are unknown...0 -
Probably not close to 15.4 million...IanB2 said:
You keep forgetting to deduct the deaths and desertions from your total.Philip_Thompson said:
16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.Theuniondivvie said:1000000+ on the petition.
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Other possible game changers - 500,000 remainers trash London on the weekend. Senior politician is caught saying something inflammatory about Brexit. VONC causes timeout. May refuses to act on parliaments vote and holds on till 11pm 29th. EU intervene and rule out any extension0
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A fair point. However, the government has no business it deems important enough to bring forward. We don't even know the business for next week.Alasdair said:
Eight days left but for the Commons the long weekend is sacrosanct. Incredible.WhisperingOracle said:Without a weekend recall there is indeed very little time for the Commons to organise and vote for anything. There is incredibly little time left.
They could just sit there I suppose.
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Quite.Theuniondivvie said:
I hope that no one who was holding up the Shamima Begum petition as a powerful indication of the national mood is now belittling the notion of petitions.Philip_Thompson said:
16.4 million to go - and it would still be just a petition even then.Theuniondivvie said:1000000+ on the petition.
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IndeedScott_P said:
So will No Dealdyedwoolie said:Revoking will cause a proper national emergency
Deal it is then0 -
Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at allRecidivist said:
Corrected that for you.dyedwoolie said:
You're welcome.0 -
Afraid it isn't.dyedwoolie said:
IndeedScott_P said:
So will No Dealdyedwoolie said:Revoking will cause a proper national emergency
Deal it is then
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Numbers gone. The deal seems dead.dyedwoolie said:
IndeedScott_P said:
So will No Dealdyedwoolie said:Revoking will cause a proper national emergency
Deal it is then
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A vote to revoke would require a degree of courage which MPs have so far failed to display.Scott_P said:
Now, if they could revoke while passing the buck...…..0 -
I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.dyedwoolie said:
Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at allRecidivist said:
Corrected that for you.dyedwoolie said:
You're welcome.0 -
My guess would be that she's not up for the optics of that, and would either drive over the cliff at 85mph, or would quit/indicate she planned to, then let Lidington as her deputy, Hunt as Foreign Sec (or Barclay - though I suspect he'd be off too) go into bat.Richard_Nabavi said:If Theresa May were to go to the EU and ask for a long extension on the basis that she's throwing in the towel and a new PM would take over, would they agree?
I'd suggest probably yes, although it wouldn't be guaranteed. Dunno if she'd do it though, still less whether it would resolve anything, and a leadership contest in current circumstances would not be a pretty sight.0 -
Any evidence to back that up? If we revoke there will be a general election afterwards because the government has failed and a replacement with proper mandate would be required.dyedwoolie said:
Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at allRecidivist said:
Corrected that for you.dyedwoolie said:
You're welcome.0 -
I would not like to choose between deal - no deal - revokeWhisperingOracle said:
Numbers gone. The deal seems dead.dyedwoolie said:
IndeedScott_P said:
So will No Dealdyedwoolie said:Revoking will cause a proper national emergency
Deal it is then
Deal is ready and moves us on, the other two are very controversial0 -
That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrestRecidivist said:
I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.dyedwoolie said:
Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at allRecidivist said:
Corrected that for you.dyedwoolie said:
You're welcome.0 -
Ruin or Betrayal are the choices facing MPs if they reject May's deal.dyedwoolie said:
That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrestRecidivist said:
I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.dyedwoolie said:
Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at allRecidivist said:
Corrected that for you.dyedwoolie said:
You're welcome.0 -
I don't have a crystal ball but I'd say it's a fairly likely outcome given the heat of division and numbers that voted to leaveeek said:
Any evidence to back that up? If we revoke there will be a general election afterwards because the government has failed and a replacement with proper mandate would be required.dyedwoolie said:
Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at allRecidivist said:
Corrected that for you.dyedwoolie said:
You're welcome.
The 'revoke will be fine' mob are as bad as the 'no deal no problem' gang0 -
Mr. F, that's why I thought a second referendum might be realistic. Weirdly, it feels further away now than a few days ago. To me, anyway.0
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'The government has no business it deems important enough to bring forward.'dixiedean said:
A fair point. However, the government has no business it deems important enough to bring forward. We don't even know the business for next week.Alasdair said:
Eight days left but for the Commons the long weekend is sacrosanct. Incredible.WhisperingOracle said:Without a weekend recall there is indeed very little time for the Commons to organise and vote for anything. There is incredibly little time left.
They could just sit there I suppose.
Just incredible.0 -
If you’re gonna have chaos and civil unrest either way then, it’d probably be better with supply chains still operating.dyedwoolie said:
That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrestRecidivist said:
I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.dyedwoolie said:
Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at allRecidivist said:
Corrected that for you.dyedwoolie said:
You're welcome.0 -
May is out of the country.
Do we have to let her back in?0 -
If she wanted to pass the deal, she seems to have significantly weakened her chances with it with MP's last night.0
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LOLbrokenwheel said:
He’s not the messiah, he’s a very naughty goy.FrancisUrquhart said:
I know he's the messiah...CarlottaVance said:He's cracked it!
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - British Labour opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn said after meeting the EU’s Brexit negotiator that he will push ahead with Brexit and seek to renegotiate the terms of the divorce deal.
Corbyn’s meeting with Michel Barnier on Thursday came as Prime Minister Theresa May is struggling to get her divorce deal through parliament and has asked the EU for an extension to negotiations.
“Our determination is to find an agreement, which means we prevent a no-deal Brexit, and that we have a future constructive relationship with the European Union that could be negotiated during an extension period,” Corbyn told reporters.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-corbyn-idUKKCN1R21BN?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5c93a1299ebbef000134abd7&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter0 -
Not the Commons, the Leader of the House: Why not ask Mrs. Leadsom to give up some family time.Alasdair said:
Eight days left but for the Commons the long weekend is sacrosanct. Incredible.WhisperingOracle said:Without a weekend recall there is indeed very little time for the Commons to organise and vote for anything. There is incredibly little time left.
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Neither revoke nor no deal will cause a national emergency. Life will go on as normal.0
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So just me and Wor Lass then? Both signed the Revoke petition.Pulpstar said:
There's a 0.96 r correlation between the 2nd ref and revoke petitions. The idea there is a whole heap of leavers for revoke out there is for the birds.eek said:
But that is a 3 year old article that you are pretending is about today's petition. Good try but zero bananas.AndyJS said:Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway.
"Unfortunately for bremainers, the constituencies which have been most supportive of this petition are also the places that voted most strongly for Remain. I’ve been able to remap the results of last Thursday’s referendum onto Westminster constituencies (currently for England and Wales only). Using that, I can work out the association between the percentage voting to leave, and the percentage of the electorate who have signed the petition.
The correlation between the percentage of voters who voted Remain and the proportion of the electorate who have signed the petition is extremely high (r=0.93). There’s little to cut against the idea that this petition comes from people who lost and are unhappy about the result."
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/are-we-bremorseful-yet-e0506c826ad2
In other news buy bananas now - future supplies are unknown...0 -
All very true.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not like to choose between deal - no deal - revokeWhisperingOracle said:
Numbers gone. The deal seems dead.dyedwoolie said:
IndeedScott_P said:
So will No Dealdyedwoolie said:Revoking will cause a proper national emergency
Deal it is then
Deal is ready and moves us on, the other two are very controversial
But the deal is unpopular. And every time the PM opens her mouth to sell it, she puts her foot in it.
So the choice is stark...and there will be no "Middle Way".0 -
Absolutely.AndyJS said:Neither revoke nor no deal will cause a national emergency. Life will go on as normal.
0 -
Or vote for the deal and work on a good future deal like adultsrpjs said:
If you’re gonna have chaos and civil unrest either way then, it’d probably be better with supply chains still operating.dyedwoolie said:
That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrestRecidivist said:
I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.dyedwoolie said:
Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at allRecidivist said:
Corrected that for you.dyedwoolie said:
You're welcome.0 -
Or a Farage premiership (which might be a definition of 'chaos and civil unrest').dyedwoolie said:
That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrestRecidivist said:
I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.dyedwoolie said:
Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at allRecidivist said:
Corrected that for you.dyedwoolie said:
You're welcome.
0 -
Mr. Woolie, quite.
The idea the Commons could revoke Article 50 and then all would be calm down and go back to normal is mad.0 -
No - it will cause a huge storm in the political world but about 99% of people are fed up to the back teeth with Brexit and will be happy to see the back of it. A small minority hold "die in the ditch" positions on either side but the vast majority of people do not. The usual nutters may try to stir things up but recent efforts by leave supporters to mobilise people on the streets have been a flop - Farage's risible march being the latest example.dyedwoolie said:
That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrestRecidivist said:
I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.dyedwoolie said:
Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at allRecidivist said:
Corrected that for you.dyedwoolie said:
You're welcome.0 -
Cometh the hour, cometh the man.RochdalePioneers said:May is out of the country.
Do we have to let her back in?
The Saj to revoke her citizenship while she's out
0 -
All the fuss on the deal and it covers a short period while we negotiate a deal. Insane0
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Maybe Javid could revoke her citizenship?RochdalePioneers said:May is out of the country.
Do we have to let her back in?
He has form after all
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I hope she’s not eligible for another country’s citizenship...RochdalePioneers said:May is out of the country.
Do we have to let her back in?
0 -
Sorry, but her behaviour this last 24 hours (appealing directly to the public rather than to MPs, suddenly putting out videos with captions after usually being so averse to social media) only makes sense if she is planning a general election.CarlottaVance said:
Whether her own MPs would allow her to lead them into an election is another matter. She seems to have gone completely deranged to me.0 -
I think that the electoral consequences would be unpleasant for MPs who backed Revoke, which is why it has not been attempted.anothernick said:
No - it will cause a huge storm in the political world but about 99% of people are fed up to the back teeth with Brexit and will be happy to see the back of it. A small minority hold "die in the ditch" positions on either side but the vast majority of people do not. The usual nutters may try to stir things up but recent efforts by leave supporters to mobilise people on the streets have been a flop - Farage's risible march being the latest example.dyedwoolie said:
That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrestRecidivist said:
I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.dyedwoolie said:
Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at allRecidivist said:
Corrected that for you.dyedwoolie said:
You're welcome.0 -
That's why I think they'd have to pass a VONC, and then presumably, a resolution requesting revocation. I expect the EU would grant an extension in that situation.numbertwelve said:0 -
LOLPhilip_Thompson said:
Cometh the hour, cometh the man.RochdalePioneers said:May is out of the country.
Do we have to let her back in?
The Saj to revoke her citizenship while she's out
(Again. I'm liking this Blitz spirit humour from PB.)0 -
No, the PM would have to enact it using the prerogative. If she refuses parliament cannot force her, only no confidence and try and get a new PM before 11pm 29th to do it.numbertwelve said:
Or HMQ herself but she would never do it0 -
How many MPs who voted against invoking Article 50 suffered for it in the 2017 General Election?Sean_F said:
I think that the electoral consequences would be unpleasant for MPs who backed Revoke, which is why it has not been attempted.anothernick said:
No - it will cause a huge storm in the political world but about 99% of people are fed up to the back teeth with Brexit and will be happy to see the back of it. A small minority hold "die in the ditch" positions on either side but the vast majority of people do not. The usual nutters may try to stir things up but recent efforts by leave supporters to mobilise people on the streets have been a flop - Farage's risible march being the latest example.dyedwoolie said:
That's not what will happen. No deal or revoke will cause chaos and civil unrestRecidivist said:
I'll concede that there will be a group of confused old guys wandering around somewhere in the North at the moment who won't be best pleased.dyedwoolie said:
Yes because revoking without a referendum will be wildly popular and cause no unrest at allRecidivist said:
Corrected that for you.dyedwoolie said:
You're welcome.0 -
What could this mean? Government of National Unity?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/11087480727446364160 -
Looks like it.El_Capitano said:What could this mean? Government of National Unity?
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1108748072744636416
I'm surprised this hasn't been considered sooner.0
