politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At this critical time a look at matters of Confidence in the p
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In Britain’s second darkest hour?GIN1138 said:
Boris will seize his destiny and get his Churchill moment?rottenborough said:Who is going to make the TV broadcast on evening of 29th, announcing formally that we have failed to reach a deal and therefore we are leaving without a deal in a few hours time?
I bloody hope it is not May, who should have fallen on her sword before then, or been thrown out by a Cabinet that has finally found some guts.
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+1IanB2 said:
Ken Clarke. One job government. Revoke A50. Then straight to a GE.Slackbladder said:
The only PM corbyn, and therefore labour will tolerate is Corbyn. Unless BOTH parties fragment I can't see it.Pulpstar said:
Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.Stereotomy said:
New PM? Timing's a little tight there, isn't it?Scott_P said:
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It might have been received better from someone without their own shitheadery problem.Sean_F said:
They are, but it was tactless to say so.rottenborough said:
Like being told they are a bunch of sh**heads by the sitting PM for example?Pulpstar said:
All else being equal some remainers should logically move over to the deal as the possibility of hard Brexit increases. There are far more remainers in the HoC than leavers too.Stereotomy said:
But surely Glorious Strategist Theresa May accounted for that, right?Pulpstar said:
From their perspective victory looks more within reach now.AlastairMeeks said:Currently the number of ERG irreconcilables is rising rather than falling.
This clearly isn't what is happening for a variety of reasons.0 -
Pizza Hut advertFrancisUrquhart said:After PM, I wonder what job May could do? Chief negotiator for a two state solution in the middle east? ...what could possibly go wrong.
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My guess is May would've ended up PM under the old system, once Gove had taken himself and Boris out. And Cameron was a significantly better pick than Davis would've been.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, this reckless experiment of giving party members a say in things has turned out to be a disaster, for both main parties.Jonathan said:
I miss the Tory men in grey suits.Richard_Nabavi said:
Stopped how? And do what instead, with whose votes?rottenborough said:
The PM is first amongst equals under our system. She can be stopped if there is the will. There isn't of course.RobD said:
Are you being serious?rottenborough said:
The Cabinet can stop her.Richard_Nabavi said:And, from the horse's mouth:
Asked if another vote against her deal next week would lead to the UK leaving the EU without a deal at the end of next week, [the PM] replied:
"What is important is that parliament delivers on the result of the referendum and that we deliver Brexit for the British people. I sincerely hope that we can do that with a deal. I’m still working on ensuring that parliament can agree a deal so that we can leave in an orderly way. What matters is that we deliver on the vote of the British people."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/21/brexit-latest-news-eu-summit-article-50-extension-theresa-may-appeal-to-nation-backfires-as-mps-accuse-her-of-stoking-hate-politics-live
Guys and gals, if the deal is voted down again she's going for a No Deal exit next week, or possibly after a short delay if the EU agree, and there ain't no-one who can stop her. Even if she lost a VONC today she's still be PM in the meantime, and the meantime takes us over the cliff.
Make your wills and buckle up, it's going to be bumpy.0 -
Why not both ?rottenborough said:
Feels like it is GE or No Deal to me.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.rottenborough said:
Feels like it is GE or No Deal to me.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
The one guarantee so far from all this is that what we expect and what happens can be wildly divergent.Sean_F said:
It's certainly what I expected.Philip_Thompson said:
No, the overwhelming line here until last week was overwhelmingly that ERGers were going to result in No Brexit.MarqueeMark said:
The issue has always been what sort of "victory" No Deal delivers.....brokenwheel said:FPT
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...Sean_F said:
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.Philip_Thompson said:For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.0 -
Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished0 -
So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?0
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900000 fwiw0
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Don't forget the joys of the constitution. The Prime Minister needs not be the leader of the largest party. Nor an MP. If we're at constitutional coup d'etat stage you need to think a little wider than who in the cabinet will be the next temporary leader of the Tory Party.
Once the powers that be decide May has to be removed the future of the party won't be the consideration. Just the fact that its legal (which means the Crown has to give authority. And by "the crown" it doesn't mean Brenda, just her authority.
May looks ill...0 -
Nothing has changed.Stark_Dawning said:So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?
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So what route ahead from where we are doesn't involve at least a generous helping of Tory self destruction?Floater said:
Why would the tories vote to destroy themselves?IanB2 said:
Ken Clarke. One job government. Revoke A50. Then straight to a GE.Slackbladder said:
The only PM corbyn, and therefore labour will tolerate is Corbyn. Unless BOTH parties fragment I can't see it.Pulpstar said:
Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.Stereotomy said:
New PM? Timing's a little tight there, isn't it?Scott_P said:0 -
Treason next Friday then. I honestly can't see a way out now. May is completely out of control.kyf_100 said:
It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.rottenborough said:
Feels like it is GE or No Deal to me.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Oh and Jeremy still thinks he can get his alternative plan sorted in 7 days...Stark_Dawning said:So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?
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I see no real world evidence that no deal will be more damaging than ongoing uncertainty for years or the damage to trust and confidence that a revocation would cause.kyf_100 said:
It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.rottenborough said:
Feels like it is GE or No Deal to me.AlastairMeeks said:
Parliament has a binary choice. If it wants to stop no deal then it can ratify the only deal before it. If it wants to reject the deal, we can go to no deal. It really needs to be one of those two options and the decision needs to be made within the next week - it would be grossly negligent to continue this farce beyond that.0 -
If ones sole concern is a Corbyn led Gov't then he's played a blinder.numbertwelve said:
Oh and Jeremy still thinks he can get his alternative plan sorted in 7 days...Stark_Dawning said:So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?
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907,000. One million within reach this afternoon, surely.0
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Varadkar wants No Deal? Who'd've thunk it...Scott_P said:0 -
Another helpful intervention. Any sign of diggers on their side?Scott_P said:0 -
I think you'll find that the 17.4m has shrunk considerably since 2016Philip_Thompson said:0 -
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Hammond resigning might do it.eristdoof said:
The handover of PM takes less than an hour, and there must be a PM even if it is only a caretaker PM. What is doubtful about your proposition is the "if the men in grey suits can persuade Theresa May to resign". I personally cannot see anything that will make her agree to resign until the outcome of the next 8 days is finalised. Not even an Edwina Curry type of secret being made public.DecrepitJohnL said:
We could have a new PM in time for tea if the men in grey suits can persuade Theresa May to resign in favour of a senior Cabinet minister. There need be no contested election if the succession is stitched up beforehand, as it will be.Slackbladder said:
The only PM corbyn, and therefore labour will tolerate is Corbyn. Unless BOTH parties fragment I can't see it.Pulpstar said:
Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.Stereotomy said:
New PM? Timing's a little tight there, isn't it?Scott_P said:
Gauke and Rudd are minor details. But a Chex going is always massive news.
Unfortunately Hammond has all the dynamism of a squid, but you never know, even squid can be made palatable if you salt them and add chilli.0 -
As I have pointed out before, this is not "LGBT rights" teaching. It is part of the "British values" programme, not PSHE. It is an anti-bullying section as part of the tolerance unit.FrancisUrquhart said:Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished
It merely suggests that non-straight people are one of the groups, amongst a great number, it is wrong to bully.
This is Section 28 returning in a curious alliance of religious fundamentalists and "parental rights" social conservatives.0 -
Keep those fingers plugged in your ears.Philip_Thompson said:
I see no real world evidence that no deal will be more damaging than ongoing uncertainty for years or the damage to trust and confidence that a revocation would cause.kyf_100 said:
It could have been no deal if we had started planning for no deal the moment we decided to leave. But you couldn't trust this lot to organise a child's birthday party, let alone a disorderly no deal Brexit. No deal cannot be allowed to take place. If that means revocation, so be it. If that means a second referendum, so be it. If that means a general election, so be it. But to crash out to no deal now would be an act of national vandalism bordering on treason.rottenborough said:
Feels like it is GE or No Deal to me.AlastairMeeks said:
Parliament has a binary choice. If it wants to stop no deal then it can ratify the only deal before it. If it wants to reject the deal, we can go to no deal. It really needs to be one of those two options and the decision needs to be made within the next week - it would be grossly negligent to continue this farce beyond that.0 -
What percentage of the people filling this petition are likely to be out this weekend at the planned marches? If the petition gets to a million by end of afternoon I can imagine we're likely to see at least 25% of that in London Saturday.0
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In those two posts folks you have it spot onnumbertwelve said:
Oh and Jeremy still thinks he can get his alternative plan sorted in 7 days...Stark_Dawning said:So Theresa's gone mad, and the MPs are all in a frightful sulk and intend to wreck Britain's economy and international standing in revenge for her being beastly. Is that about the long and short of it?
I have given up on each and everyone of them.
I hope the EU stops this charade on the spot and refuses an extension or makes it only dependent on the deal passing
I have had enough as has most everyone - there is a life going on out there away from the asylum that is the HOC0 -
The great thing about the Revoke petition is it makes the Kyle-Wilson Compromise look like a compromise.0
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Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?El_Capitano said:
At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".philiph said:
Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.Andrew said:
For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.eristdoof said:Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.
Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.0 -
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Rutte should focus on issues closer to home...Scott_P said:0 -
So. We no deal. May goes. Boris inherits the scorched remains and governs like he’s appearing in an 80s dystopian future movie. Snake Pliskin arrives in the UK.Scott_P said:0 -
Yes, it would make passing the 'deal' subject to ratification in a further public vote seem tame.edmundintokyo said:The great thing about the Revoke petition is it makes the Kyle-Wilson Compromise look like a compromise.
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A totally uninformed suggestion: could May & Corbyn negotiate a post-Brexit GE [with the future political relationship to be part of the manifesto process] as the price for Labour officially supporting or abstaining on the WA?
What would be the mechanism for enforcement? Presumably a leadership change for the Tories would be part of the process too - so set a date in September for the GE. Maybe a leadership change for Labour too.
Could TM get this past her own Cabinet/party? Would she be prepared to, for the sake of the Deal?0 -
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This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.FrancisUrquhart said:Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished0 -
She appears willing to burn everything to the ground for Brexit.Tissue_Price said:Would she be prepared to, for the sake of the Deal?
The deal does not appear to be a requirement.0 -
This rather makes a nonsense of some of the claims below...Scott_P said:
"when asked who would be to blame for a no-deal Brexit, the public are most likely to say the government and Tory MPs...."0 -
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Back to the 50's then.ExiledInScotland said:
This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.FrancisUrquhart said:Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished
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Indeed. Whose jolly wheeze was that?eristdoof said:
Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?El_Capitano said:
At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".philiph said:
Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.Andrew said:
For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.eristdoof said:Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.
Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.0 -
The Guardianista Thomas the Tank Engine is racist types must be in a terrible bind....ExiledInScotland said:
This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.FrancisUrquhart said:Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished0 -
Exactlybrokenwheel said:
Rutte should focus on issues closer to home...Scott_P said:0 -
Nope - they will ignore this and go after christian women who use the wrong pro nounFrancisUrquhart said:
The Guardianista Thomas the Tank Engine is racist types must be in a terrible bind....ExiledInScotland said:
This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.FrancisUrquhart said:Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished0 -
I think it is "upto" two weeks. iirc if her Majesty is persuaded, through the usual channels, that someone else can command confidence, then the cars are heading to the palace.eristdoof said:
Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?El_Capitano said:
At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".philiph said:
Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.Andrew said:
For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.eristdoof said:Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.
Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.0 -
Well once we've exited you can campaign for a rejoin referendum and we can see.IanB2 said:
I think you'll find that the 17.4m has shrunk considerably since 2016Philip_Thompson said:0 -
Another backer of MV2 says he may not back MV3 now.
Stupendous.0 -
If May refuses to resign how can Her Majesty be persuaded? That seems to be a bit of a legal grey area.rottenborough said:
I think it is "upto" two weeks. iirc if her Majesty is persuaded, through the usual channels, that someone else can command confidence, then the cars are heading to the palace.eristdoof said:
Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?El_Capitano said:
At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".philiph said:
Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.Andrew said:
For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.eristdoof said:Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.
Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.0 -
Do yo honestly, really truly honestly think there will be food riots or queues for medicines (beyond the standard pre Brexit NHS efficiency levels) if we leave next week without a deal?Scott_P said:
What victory?Pulpstar said:From their perspective victory looks more within reach now.
I know the headbangers think a scorched Earth No Deal will see them lauded as liberators and feted for 1000 years.
I am less sure that the medicine queues and food riots will be chanting their names in praise...0 -
Fair point.Sean_F said:
I'd have thought 180 Labour to 90 Tories would be more probable.Casino_Royale said:
You’d need 90 Labour MPs plus 180 Tories plus TIGers plus LDs plus SNP to back someone like Liddington or Hilary Benn via a written agreement for 3 months or so with a guaranteed election at the end.Pulpstar said:
Who is this new PM, and where do they get their support. Corbyn hates Chuka even more than the Tories.Stereotomy said:
New PM? Timing's a little tight there, isn't it?Scott_P said:
Mass casualties at the end.0 -
Because they don’t believe that it does give Leave voters what they want, which given the lack of support for the deal would seem to be accurate.Sean_F said:
I think they're stupid, because they may still lose to Revoke, if the Commons rebels, and a No Deal Brexit may still end up doing harm, fuelling a move to rejoin. If you've got most of what you want, why risk it in the hope of getting 100%?brokenwheel said:FPT
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...Sean_F said:
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.Philip_Thompson said:For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.
Despite the excitement at the prospect on here from some, Revoke is unlikely. Revoke is certain trouble for whoever initiates, where as No Deal can at least theoretically be blamed on someone else.
I sincerely doubt we will rejoin any time soon if we fully leave, that in essence is why this has been such a bun fight; everyone knows whatever happens this is it for the near future. People in the middle will rationalise the new reality and the idea of continuing the struggle will be left to a hardened minority. The argument for rejoining the EU is significantly harder than the argument to remain.0 -
People called the police when KFC ran out of chicken.Concanvasser said:Do yo honestly, really truly honestly think there will be food riots or queues for medicines (beyond the standard pre Brexit NHS efficiency levels) if we leave next week without a deal?
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Presumably someone else can propose a vote of confidence in an alternative administration before then?Philip_Thompson said:
If May refuses to resign how can Her Majesty be persuaded? That seems to be a bit of a legal grey area.rottenborough said:
I think it is "upto" two weeks. iirc if her Majesty is persuaded, through the usual channels, that someone else can command confidence, then the cars are heading to the palace.eristdoof said:
Doesn't may remain primeminister for two weeks even if she is VoNCd?El_Capitano said:
At which point May no longer has a majority for anything and gets VONCed faster than you can say "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn".philiph said:
Just withdraw the whip of any who do not vote for the deal for 3 weeks or so.Andrew said:
For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.eristdoof said:Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.
Fanatics on both siders (ERG and Remain) will no longer be able to take part in the activities of the Tory party in Westminster.0 -
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thats pretty damning on George OsborneScott_P said:0 -
You’ve been very rude to me.kjh said:
Any reason you have to be so rude? I was trying to be quite nice to you last night and conciliatory in trying to explain to you why people are baiting you over the numbers thing (but don't when you make other rational posts). If you go back and look at the threads after you left last night there was some gentle humour at your expense on counting numbers (not by me). You seem very touchy about this. I don't know why. Your arguments are usually rational, but just the other day, pretty well unprompted, you commented that these marches 'boil your piss'. That isn't a rational response. Neither is your one sided view on the numbers. Of course there will be illegitimate numbers in the petition. of course nobody knows the numbers at the march. None of it really matters. Only the ball park is important. But it really, really mattters to you. Try not to be rude. I won't be rude to you.Casino_Royale said:
Did you? Must have missed it.kjh said:
So so predictable. So predictable that I predicted you would do it down thread.Casino_Royale said:
https://mobile.twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/1108682038184419328Sean_F said:
The petition seems to be running at 1-1,500 a minute, now, although a couple of thousand were just deleted.
I normally skip straight over your posts.
If you don’t want it back then don’t belittle or patronise me.0 -
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A deal vs no deal vote. Here we go!Scott_P said:0 -
Better take the bigger car to CostCo tomorrow...Scott_P said:0 -
We may see panic buying on Saturday.FrancisUrquhart said:
Better take the bigger car to CostCo tomorrow...Scott_P said:0 -
That is very helpful to May dealers, and the ERG. Less so to the remainers.0
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Afternoon all
I'm still not convinced how and indeed if MV3 gets to the Commons next week. I assume May is hoping those intent on voting against will be harangued by worried Council candidates and terrified Mail-carrying constituents into changing their minds but it doesn't look hopeful and Bercow has to play ball as well.
If the clock runs out, doesn't the WA run out with it?
If we revoke before 29/3 we can re-instate A50 at a point in the future which would in theory allow us to leave the EU but hopefully with a WA which commands a majority in the Commons.
The "in theory" bit allows for the possibility of a second referendum (remote though more feasible if it were do we want to continue the process of leaving the EU or remain?) or a GE (if a Party with a manifesto pledge to remain as EU members wins a majority, doesn't that supersede the 23/6/16 result?)
I don't quite see what purpose a GE would serve as a) 500 or so of the MPs already there would be there again and b) both the Conservative and Labour parties would remain hopelessly divided.
The "unknown" is what impact a No Deal will have. September 1992 is widely regarded as a political disaster for the Major Government as its reputation for economic management was shattered but perversely many now view what happened as economically positive - I recall Andrew Neil would call it "White Wednesday". Interest rates fell sharply as sterling devalued and we enjoyed a prolonged period of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap money and rising asset prices.
Talking to my estate agent friend yesterday, his anecdotal report was no one was talking about Brexit, indeed people were ignoring it. Property was being bought and sold but, he added, prices were broadly similar to 2018 so the market has plateaued in terms of value if not activity.0 -
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May is a stubborn and dictatorial leader. Corbyn is a dogmatic and ideological leader.Tissue_Price said:A totally uninformed suggestion: could May & Corbyn negotiate a post-Brexit GE [with the future political relationship to be part of the manifesto process] as the price for Labour officially supporting or abstaining on the WA?
What would be the mechanism for enforcement? Presumably a leadership change for the Tories would be part of the process too - so set a date in September for the GE. Maybe a leadership change for Labour too.
Could TM get this past her own Cabinet/party? Would she be prepared to, for the sake of the Deal?
So, no.0 -
George Osborne told people Brexit would be without consequences? I assume you have a citation?Alanbrooke said:
thats pretty damning on George OsborneScott_P said:0 -
To be honest, Mrs U doesn't need much excuse when its comes to CostCo...she seem to end up buying like we are facing a national emergency every time. I think we still have 4 years of a 5 year supply of toothpaste to get through.El_Capitano said:
We may see panic buying on Saturday.FrancisUrquhart said:
Better take the bigger car to CostCo tomorrow...Scott_P said:0 -
Haha I think you have a point there Scott. 😊 I think it might be a bit like the last petrol crisis, the odd empty shelf in the immediate aftermath at worst but back to normal within a week or 2.Scott_P said:
People called the police when KFC ran out of chicken.Concanvasser said:Do yo honestly, really truly honestly think there will be food riots or queues for medicines (beyond the standard pre Brexit NHS efficiency levels) if we leave next week without a deal?
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Hopefully not. We do have a quandery at the moment where it seems that Islamophobia trumps Homophobia which trumps other Religious views. I do wonder what would have happened if those bakers in Northern Ireland had been Moslems. And before anyone thinks I'm being more of an idiot than usual, I detest anyone discriminating against anyone on the grounds of race, religion, sexuality or gender - but I do understand discrimination on the grounds of stupidity.Floater said:
Back to the 50's then.ExiledInScotland said:
This was bound to happen from the moment we elevated human rights rules above religious observation rights. Non-religious progressives pushed it through - now they have to face accusations of Islamophobia. Watching from the sidelines I think the zealots deserve each other.FrancisUrquhart said:Campaigners say they want Birmingham LGBT teaching abolished
Five schools in Birmingham have stopped teaching about LGBT rights following complaints by parents. Amir Ahmed, a lead campaigner for the parents, told Sima Kotecha: "Morally, we do not accept homosexuality as a valid sexual relationship to have."
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/education-47647273/campaigners-say-they-want-birmingham-lgbt-teaching-abolished0 -
There are any number of contingent possibilities if we exit with No Deal.brokenwheel said:
Because they don’t believe that it does give Leave voters what they want, which given the lack of support for the deal would seem to be accurate.Sean_F said:
I think they're stupid, because they may still lose to Revoke, if the Commons rebels, and a No Deal Brexit may still end up doing harm, fuelling a move to rejoin. If you've got most of what you want, why risk it in the hope of getting 100%?brokenwheel said:FPT
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...Sean_F said:
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.Philip_Thompson said:For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.
Despite the excitement at the prospect on here from some, Revoke is unlikely. Revoke is certain trouble for whoever initiates, where as No Deal can at least theoretically be blamed on someone else.
I sincerely doubt we will rejoin any time soon if we fully leave, that in essence is why this has been such a bun fight; everyone knows whatever happens this is it for the near future. People in the middle will rationalise the new reality and the idea of continuing the struggle will be left to a hardened minority. The argument for rejoining the EU is significantly harder than the argument to remain.
Rejoining in (relatively short) order is certainly one of them, but it’s by far the only one and very far from guaranteed.
The world might have moved on and the electorate might simply move on with it.0 -
Ben Bradley? Voted Remain, became committed Brexiter to win Mansfield. Voted against MV1, for MV2. Now seems to want to continue his remarkable streak of not knowing what is in his mind.rottenborough said:Another backer of MV2 says he may not back MV3 now.
Stupendous.0 -
I thought Jezza was getting concensus on unicorns? LolBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Adding about 1000 per minute at the moment. Should get to 1m soon after 3pm...148grss said:What percentage of the people filling this petition are likely to be out this weekend at the planned marches? If the petition gets to a million by end of afternoon I can imagine we're likely to see at least 25% of that in London Saturday.
0 -
Brief trumpet blow.
This is my 20,000th post!
Time well spent hopefully.0 -
And it may be significant that Corbyn declined to rule out revocation in response to media questions earlier.Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Your posts are very impressive. You must be very proud.rottenborough said:Brief trumpet blow.
This is my 20,000th post!
Time well spent hopefully. 0 -
The same Corbyn who said he’d vote leave in a second referendum?anothernick said:
And it may be significant that Corbyn declined to rule out revocation in response to media questions earlier.Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
The EU will also move on, and continue in a direction that is an anathema to our interests. The EU we would be rejoining will not be the same EU we left.Casino_Royale said:
There are any number of contingent possibilities if we exit with No Deal.brokenwheel said:
Because they don’t believe that it does give Leave voters what they want, which given the lack of support for the deal would seem to be accurate.Sean_F said:
I think they're stupid, because they may still lose to Revoke, if the Commons rebels, and a No Deal Brexit may still end up doing harm, fuelling a move to rejoin. If you've got most of what you want, why risk it in the hope of getting 100%?brokenwheel said:FPT
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...Sean_F said:
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.Philip_Thompson said:For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.
Despite the excitement at the prospect on here from some, Revoke is unlikely. Revoke is certain trouble for whoever initiates, where as No Deal can at least theoretically be blamed on someone else.
I sincerely doubt we will rejoin any time soon if we fully leave, that in essence is why this has been such a bun fight; everyone knows whatever happens this is it for the near future. People in the middle will rationalise the new reality and the idea of continuing the struggle will be left to a hardened minority. The argument for rejoining the EU is significantly harder than the argument to remain.
Rejoining in (relatively short) order is certainly one of them, but it’s by far the only one and very far from guaranteed.
The world might have moved on and the electorate might simply move on with it.0 -
It's one of the options in his unicorn suite of proposals that are wowing Europe as we speakanothernick said:
And it may be significant that Corbyn declined to rule out revocation in response to media questions earlier.Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
embarrassing it takes France to sort this out - how many times does it need saying Deal, No Deal, Revoke - that's it, the HoC needs to decide between Revoke or Deal or accept No Deal as the outcomeBig_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Oooooh, good point.RobD said:
Actually the correct comparator is the difference of votes. As nobody has started a petition saying yes please, we want to become a third world backwater next Friday, that is 950000 - 0 signatures on the petition vs a difference of 1.3m in the referendum. We'll be there by tea time.0 -
Well done. It is a milestonerottenborough said:Brief trumpet blow.
This is my 20,000th post!
Time well spent hopefully.0 -
Strange that this time yesterday there were those bragging that the No Deal petition launched 4 months ago was well ahead with 350,000 signatories. They seem to have gone quiet since the revoke petition is coming close to a million in 24 hours.RobD said:
I agree it may not signify a great deal but there are a lot of very angry people out there and not all of them are people who think Brexit is being "betrayed". If the leavers manoeuvre us into a no deal a week from now this will be the tip of the iceberg.0 -
If May refuses to revoke after a vote next Thursdsy there's no time to remove her and revoke. Parliament cannot exercise the royal prerogative.0
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How much evidence do you think there is that the electorate is moving on?Casino_Royale said:
There are any number of contingent possibilities if we exit with No Deal.brokenwheel said:
Because they don’t believe that it does give Leave voters what they want, which given the lack of support for the deal would seem to be accurate.Sean_F said:
I think they're stupid, because they may still lose to Revoke, if the Commons rebels, and a No Deal Brexit may still end up doing harm, fuelling a move to rejoin. If you've got most of what you want, why risk it in the hope of getting 100%?brokenwheel said:FPT
But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...Sean_F said:
Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.Philip_Thompson said:For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?
This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.
Despite the excitement at the prospect on here from some, Revoke is unlikely. Revoke is certain trouble for whoever initiates, where as No Deal can at least theoretically be blamed on someone else.
I sincerely doubt we will rejoin any time soon if we fully leave, that in essence is why this has been such a bun fight; everyone knows whatever happens this is it for the near future. People in the middle will rationalise the new reality and the idea of continuing the struggle will be left to a hardened minority. The argument for rejoining the EU is significantly harder than the argument to remain.
Rejoining in (relatively short) order is certainly one of them, but it’s by far the only one and very far from guaranteed.
The world might have moved on and the electorate might simply move on with it.
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There is no correct comparator, people will be far more motivated to sign one of these things if it isn’t already going to happen (one way or another) by default.Ishmael_Z said:
Oooooh, good point.RobD said:
Actually the correct comparator is the difference of votes. As nobody has started a petition saying yes please, we want to become a third world backwater next Friday, that is 950000 - 0 signatures on the petition vs a difference of 1.3m in the referendum. We'll be there by tea time.-1
