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SystemSystem Posts: 12,639
edited March 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At this critical time a look at matters of Confidence in the political arena

In both senses of the word, confidence lies at the heart of politics. It is certainly the preference of this habitual voyeur of Westminster life. Yet the concept has been distorted beyond recognition by the stresses of Brexit.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,424
    Polarisation is about the only thing we can be certain of.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Second! Like Remain...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,393

    As a result, MP's in general have a favourability rating of 5%.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,424
    A good article, but a couple of quibbles...

    However my overriding impression from both MV1 and MV2 is that these MPs – most of the ERG and many Labour MPs sitting in Leave seats – wanted the deal to pass (eventually) but without getting their own hands dirty by actually voting for it themselves...

    Is there any hard evidence how many MPs of which this is actually true ?
    And is that number in any event well below what any WA vote would need to pass ?

    When leaders cannot trust a wider group to keep confidences, then they retreat into their bunkers. This heightens the risk both of groupthink and also PR disasters

    Was not May walled securely into her bunker well before any serious leaking ? This has been her modus operandi since she started at the Home Office.

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Good article. Somehow manages to come across as totally fair and reasonable to all sides, whilst being utterly damning. Which says something about the appalling way our MPs have been behaving over Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108691097696587777
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Good thread - and Mr Bell is spot on when he argues that many MPs will the end (Brexit) but are not prepared to will the means (actually voting for it) instead standing aside ostentatiously virtue signalling.

    Wonder how the Corbyn/Selmayr conversation has gone.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,424
    CarlottaVance said:

    Good thread - and Mr Bell is spot on when he argues that many MPs will the end (Brexit) but are not prepared to will the means (actually voting for it) instead standing aside ostentatiously virtue signalling.

    Is he really ?
    How many ?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,093
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108691097696587777

    Clearly if May survives, one of her priorities will be to abolish these petitions, on the basis that the only thing that counts is what politicians are prepared to do, rather than the views of the electorate.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108691097696587777

    Yawn. Come back when she's said it 17.4m times.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Chris said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108691097696587777

    Clearly if May survives, one of her priorities will be to abolish these petitions, on the basis that the only thing that counts is what politicians are prepared to do, rather than the views of the electorate.
    They are populist bulls**t. The idea that any number of fake or real signatures trumps a referendum with 33.5 million legitimate votes cast is patently absurd.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The government has got past the point of trying to polish a turd and is now at the stage of trying to persuade MPs by spraying them with ordure.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,457
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,424
    (FPT)
    148grss said:


    As a Remain voter, I think the best thing to do is Leave. Softly. That is what a 52% / 48% vote for leave suggests, as does the Tories losing their majority. The government, until this week, has not sincerely tried to engage the other parties. That is necessary in a hung parliament. This backwards thinking that Hunt came out with this morning, that a hung parliament means MPs should defer even MORE to the government line, is totally stupid.

    Agreed, and that is the May line, too.

    Granted, trying to achieve a soft leave consensus in Parliament would not have been the easiest of things to do, given the utterly mendacious way Corbyn has dealt with the issue, but it is undeniable that May never even considered attempting such a thing.
    Her personal interpretation of the Brexit vote has been treated as carrying the unchallengeable mandate of 17 million odd voters.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Chris said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108691097696587777

    Clearly if May survives, one of her priorities will be to abolish these petitions, on the basis that the only thing that counts is what politicians are prepared to do, rather than the views of the electorate.
    This may come as a surprise but it is Parliament which is sovereign, not her, and the petition is to Parliament
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Endillion said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108691097696587777

    Yawn. Come back when she's said it 17.4m times.
    :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    edited March 2019
    The BBC seemed to have missed the bit out about Russia killing as many IS Russians as possible....

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-47643266/russia-s-is-families-why-are-the-children-being-punished
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    edited March 2019
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    CarlottaVance said:

    Good thread - and Mr Bell is spot on when he argues that many MPs will the end (Brexit) but are not prepared to will the means (actually voting for it) instead standing aside ostentatiously virtue signalling.

    Wonder how the Corbyn/Selmayr conversation has gone.....

    It is not ends and means that are the problem. It is that MPs will the ends without knowing what the means are, or even what the ends are. Brexit means Brexit but what does Brexit mean? The ERG has no settled view, nor does the Cabinet, nor do those who led the Leave campaign.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,457
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    Utterly deluded. Or a liar.

    Which is worse in a PM-in-waiting?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,393
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    If he can't bear being in the same room as Chuka Umunna, I'd say his chances of achieving a consensus are remote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    rottenborough said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    Utterly deluded. Or a liar.

    Which is worse in a PM-in-waiting?
    Aren't both neccessary for the job ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    edited March 2019
    rottenborough said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    Utterly deluded. Or a liar.

    Which is worse in a PM-in-waiting?
    The messiah...a liar...never.....there were no seats on that train....I was there, but not involved...
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,259
    The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,061
    Aaron, You may done this already, but what is your position on all of this and if you had made it in to Parliament at the last election do you think the pressures there would have changed things for you?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,093
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Chris said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108691097696587777

    Clearly if May survives, one of her priorities will be to abolish these petitions, on the basis that the only thing that counts is what politicians are prepared to do, rather than the views of the electorate.
    They are populist bulls**t. The idea that any number of fake or real signatures trumps a referendum with 33.5 million legitimate votes cast is patently absurd.
    That's an argument that can be made, certainly. But not the one May made against it. She just said she wasn't prepared to do it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.

    Won't she be well gone, living full time in a remote Welsh cottage, by the time it comes for repercussions?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    On the petition...the only real use I see for them is if they raise an issue that really wasn't on the radar, and even then have there been many examples of change in laws due to them? Tampon Tax I think got a fair bit of publicity when I don't think that many people had thought about it before.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    And the permanent CU is not for this stage of negotiations but the next!!
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,259
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.

    Won't she be well gone, living full time in a remote Welsh cottage, by the time it comes for repercussions?
    I don't get the impression she intends to go anywhere. 2017 was a humiliation for her and I suspect she wants to right that wrong by winning a proper majority next time round, thus securing her legacy amongst the party faithful.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    notme2 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    And the permanent CU is not for this stage of negotiations but the next!!
    At this rate, we will have to wait for his kids to get promoted before we get to that.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,486
    notme2 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    And the permanent CU is not for this stage of negotiations but the next!!
    Exactly. God help us, it seems that most of our MPs and even some party leaders are unaware of what is actually being negotiated.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    Stark_Dawning said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.

    Won't she be well gone, living full time in a remote Welsh cottage, by the time it comes for repercussions?
    I don't get the impression she intends to go anywhere. 2017 was a humiliation for her and I suspect she wants to right that wrong by winning a proper majority next time round, thus securing her legacy amongst the party faithful.
    I am not sure the Tory party are going to agree to that somehow....
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Stark_Dawning said:

    The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.

    Taking that one step further, is it possible that she is deliberately trying to make it all about her, so that when she resigns, MPs will suddenly have no reason left to vote against, thus getting her out the hot seat and the Deal over the line in one fell swoop?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    kjh said:

    Aaron, You may done this already, but what is your position on all of this and if you had made it in to Parliament at the last election do you think the pressures there would have changed things for you?

    I voted to Leave, though I entered that process as a swing voter [a pretty novel experience for me]. I stood at the 2017 GE on the basis of supporting the Prime Minister's efforts to get a good deal and I'd like to think I'd have voted on that basis in Parliament.

    Of course, had I made it to Parliament, she'd have had a majority of 90+, so things would have been quite different. Not entirely different, though: there would still have been a rebellion on the ERG side against any deal, and paradoxically it might have been harder to get a decent deal from the EU with a hefty government majority behind it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Endillion said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.

    Taking that one step further, is it possible that she is deliberately trying to make it all about her, so that when she resigns, MPs will suddenly have no reason left to vote against, thus getting her out the hot seat and the Deal over the line in one fell swoop?
    Or so that she can revoke while still posing as someone fighting to deliver Brexit on behalf of the people.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    glw said:

    notme2 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    And the permanent CU is not for this stage of negotiations but the next!!
    Exactly. God help us, it seems that most of our MPs and even some party leaders are unaware of what is actually being negotiated.
    How about “ HMG will carry out parallel negotiations on our future trade agreement with the EU that includes membership of the CU and will bring the option back to parliament”
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    kjh said:

    Aaron, You may done this already, but what is your position on all of this and if you had made it in to Parliament at the last election do you think the pressures there would have changed things for you?

    On record as supporting the deal :

    https://twitter.com/AaronBell80/status/1108689578590945280
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,673
    Nigelb said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Good thread - and Mr Bell is spot on when he argues that many MPs will the end (Brexit) but are not prepared to will the means (actually voting for it) instead standing aside ostentatiously virtue signalling.

    Is he really ?
    How many ?
    North of 200.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1108700794063339521
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,093
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.

    Won't she be well gone, living full time in a remote Welsh cottage, by the time it comes for repercussions?
    I've always thought that if a No Deal Brexit turned out to be at the bad end of the spectrum (food shortages, unavailability of medicines, a lot of job losses - in other words, realistically, deaths) then those perceived as responsible would need armed protection for the rest of their lives.

    In those circumstances I doubt whether retirement to a Welsh cottage would afford much peace of mind.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1108700794063339521

    He doesn’t like it when he gets a quick slap back.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,259
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.

    Won't she be well gone, living full time in a remote Welsh cottage, by the time it comes for repercussions?
    I don't get the impression she intends to go anywhere. 2017 was a humiliation for her and I suspect she wants to right that wrong by winning a proper majority next time round, thus securing her legacy amongst the party faithful.
    I am not sure the Tory party are going to agree to that somehow....
    I'm not so sure. Once No Deal happens she can just turn around and say she was in favour of it all along and up yours EU. One more more spectacular u-turn won't make any difference, and the party faithful will love her for it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,119
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    He won’t. He doesn’t want to achieve a consensus.

    He’ll keep saying he does, and then finding reasons why he can’t.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    glw said:

    notme2 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    And the permanent CU is not for this stage of negotiations but the next!!
    Exactly. God help us, it seems that most of our MPs and even some party leaders are unaware of what is actually being negotiated.
    When is it going to dawn that Corbyn just wants to beat the tories and get to No10, rather than doing whats best for the country??
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,979
    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.

    Won't she be well gone, living full time in a remote Welsh cottage, by the time it comes for repercussions?
    I've always thought that if a No Deal Brexit turned out to be at the bad end of the spectrum (food shortages, unavailability of medicines, a lot of job losses - in other words, realistically, deaths) then those perceived as responsible would need armed protection for the rest of their lives.

    In those circumstances I doubt whether retirement to a Welsh cottage would afford much peace of mind.
    All former PMs require armed protection for the rest of their lives.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,997
    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    He won’t. He doesn’t want to achieve a consensus.

    He’ll keep saying he does, and then finding reasons why he can’t.
    He just wants the Tories to own either No deal or No Brexit. He's not fussed which ! Either probably isn't good for the Tories.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,089
    "Whichever outcome we get will polarise the electorate still further, with a sizeable minority likely to feel that something has been stolen from them."

    Brexit will end up "stealing" my British passport from me.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,458
    At root, though, the fundamental failure is one of marketing. The total secrecy of the negotiations caused this. The deal is accepted by most on PB. But not in HoC or in the country.
    It ought to have been made crystal, from the start, that there would be compromises, and no one would get everything they wanted.
    Instead we heard nonsense like " Brexit means Brexit." Which paved the ground for all to imagine their ideal Brexit and then clutch pearls when it came out different.
    Can you imagine A Campbell advising her on such a strategy?
    Still, the PM chooses her team, and her advisers.
    What a mess...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,119
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    On the petition...the only real use I see for them is if they raise an issue that really wasn't on the radar, and even then have there been many examples of change in laws due to them? Tampon Tax I think got a fair bit of publicity when I don't think that many people had thought about it before.

    This current petition at least has the virtue of honesty.

    We are now merely counting the hours until the People’s Vote campaign seamlessly mutates into the Unilateral Revocation Now campaign.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Slackbladder said:

    glw said:

    notme2 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    And the permanent CU is not for this stage of negotiations but the next!!
    Exactly. God help us, it seems that most of our MPs and even some party leaders are unaware of what is actually being negotiated.
    When is it going to dawn that Corbyn just wants to beat the tories and get to No10, rather than doing whats best for the country??
    Corbyn thinks getting the Tories out is best for the country.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Very nice article, Aaron.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,119
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Chris said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108691097696587777

    Clearly if May survives, one of her priorities will be to abolish these petitions, on the basis that the only thing that counts is what politicians are prepared to do, rather than the views of the electorate.
    They are populist bulls**t. The idea that any number of fake or real signatures trumps a referendum with 33.5 million legitimate votes cast is patently absurd.
    I don’t see any harm in petitions, which have centuries of history here.

    My only objection would be to those who argue they’re representative and demand a change in Government policy.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    I can confidently predict the outcome of Brexit now. If I'm wrong, I'll 'fess up later.

    Mrs May will fail to get her deal through but the EU will offer a two-year extension as long as she has a plan to implement something else. This can only be a second referendum because a revocation would be too obviously anti-democratic. I suspect she will bow out at this point, and rightly blame the MPs again.

    There will be a new Tory leader who will have no choice but to organise a re-referendum. A narrow Remain victory will be hailed as a triumph for democracy. Now it gets murky but it won't be pretty. Once democracy becomes a pick and mix, confidence in our system will take a long time to recover. Ukip or something similar will cause chaos with any GE for the next decade.

    Blame? The winners always decide that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    notme2 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/HarryYorke1/status/1108700794063339521

    He doesn’t like it when he gets a quick slap back.
    Like all bullies he can dish it out but can't take it...
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Finally, Theresa May succeeds in uniting the nation https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-speech-bbc-news-statement-eu-delay-a8832941.html
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 217
    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    He won’t. He doesn’t want to achieve a consensus.

    He’ll keep saying he does, and then finding reasons why he can’t.
    He just wants the Tories to own either No deal or No Brexit. He's not fussed which ! Either probably isn't good for the Tories.
    Neither is what we would have wanted but only one is definitely fatal for the Party. If push comes to shove, as is looking likely, No Deal is the Conservative Party's least worst option as it is now for the country, if the WA cannot pass.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,119
    On topic, very good article from Aaron.

    I have friends who are MPs and - to be honest - my thoughts are now turning to their personal safety in the event of No Deal.

    95% contempt for our MPs (polling) easily includes the nutters, and I really worry what might happen to some of them (any party) in the event of No Deal.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Concanvasser said:

    No Deal is the Conservative Party's least worst option as it is now for the country, if the WA cannot pass.

    Pin that one till after the local elections...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,093
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.

    Won't she be well gone, living full time in a remote Welsh cottage, by the time it comes for repercussions?
    I've always thought that if a No Deal Brexit turned out to be at the bad end of the spectrum (food shortages, unavailability of medicines, a lot of job losses - in other words, realistically, deaths) then those perceived as responsible would need armed protection for the rest of their lives.

    In those circumstances I doubt whether retirement to a Welsh cottage would afford much peace of mind.
    All former PMs require armed protection for the rest of their lives.
    I just think this one would require more than a few discreetly deployed officers. Maybe a full platoon? What do people think?
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Concanvasser said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    He won’t. He doesn’t want to achieve a consensus.

    He’ll keep saying he does, and then finding reasons why he can’t.
    He just wants the Tories to own either No deal or No Brexit. He's not fussed which ! Either probably isn't good for the Tories.
    Neither is what we would have wanted but only one is definitely fatal for the Party. If push comes to shove, as is looking likely, No Deal is the Conservative Party's least worst option as it is now for the country, if the WA cannot pass.
    There’s been a change on the doorstep in the last week. Those ERG holdouts need to knock on a few doors and speak to Con pledges..
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,119
    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    He won’t. He doesn’t want to achieve a consensus.

    He’ll keep saying he does, and then finding reasons why he can’t.
    He just wants the Tories to own either No deal or No Brexit. He's not fussed which ! Either probably isn't good for the Tories.
    Yup. He wants to create the right conditions for his revolution.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Excellent article. There is a distinct irony that while so many refuse to trust their colleagues in Westminster, whether within the House, their party, the government or cross-party, so many of these self same MPs are also relying on and hoping for those same colleagues to do the decent thing (which they themselves would rather not), and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1108710281205739520
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,808
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Chris said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1108691097696587777

    Clearly if May survives, one of her priorities will be to abolish these petitions, on the basis that the only thing that counts is what politicians are prepared to do, rather than the views of the electorate.
    They are populist bulls**t. The idea that any number of fake or real signatures trumps a referendum with 33.5 million legitimate votes cast is patently absurd.
    No. No-one is suggesting that a petition trumps the referendum. It is a petition to the legislature asking them to revoke Article 50. The legislature will, of course, refuse but the exercise is a 21st century version of the right to petition Parliament that has existed well, since it was founded. The only difference is the guaranteed debate at 100,000 signatures.

    https://archives.parliament.uk/help/faqs/#unique-identifier6

    Someone on here, Royal_Blue I think, was complaining about the frightfully dreadful mess made by protesters yesterday. Those of similar views should be welcoming petitions because it is a digital version of a protest and means they don't have to deal with the oiks.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,393

    The petition seems to be running at 1-1,500 a minute, now, although a couple of thousand were just deleted.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Casino_Royale said:

    On topic, very good article from Aaron.

    I have friends who are MPs and - to be honest - my thoughts are now turning to their personal safety in the event of No Deal.

    95% contempt for our MPs (polling) easily includes the nutters, and I really worry what might happen to some of them (any party) in the event of No Deal.

    Brexit has so split the nation I'm afraid that risk exists in a no Brexit scenario too
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,673
    When we No Deal Brexit, it will not be the EU that is held responsible by the voters. It won't be the PM either. It will be the MPs.

    Great job, guys.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,089
    Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.

    I'm thinking along the lines of if MV3 is voted down, then May goes to the Palace and recommends that Corbyn is her successor with immediate effect. The problem I see with this idea is that either Corbyn will call a general election, in which case many Tory Backbenchers and the DUP will think "bring it on", or the Corbyn minority government will lose a VoNC as soon as the Conservatives have found an interim leader.

    I can think of a few financial actions that do not need to go through parliament and would almost bankrupt the country, but I'm pretty sure Philip Hammond would need to enact those, and he would never agree to such a irresponsible action.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,784
    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.

    Won't she be well gone, living full time in a remote Welsh cottage, by the time it comes for repercussions?
    I've always thought that if a No Deal Brexit turned out to be at the bad end of the spectrum (food shortages, unavailability of medicines, a lot of job losses - in other words, realistically, deaths) then those perceived as responsible would need armed protection for the rest of their lives.

    In those circumstances I doubt whether retirement to a Welsh cottage would afford much peace of mind.
    All former PMs require armed protection for the rest of their lives.
    I just think this one would require more than a few discreetly deployed officers. Maybe a full platoon? What do people think?
    As Che said, a revolution isn't an apple that falls when it's ripe. It has to be made to fall.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    MarqueeMark said:

    When we No Deal Brexit, it will not be the EU that is held responsible by the voters. It won't be the PM either. It will be the MPs.

    Great job, guys.

    The buck stops with the PM.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,119
    Sean_F said:


    The petition seems to be running at 1-1,500 a minute, now, although a couple of thousand were just deleted.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/1108682038184419328
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Casino_Royale said:

    On topic, very good article from Aaron.

    I have friends who are MPs and - to be honest - my thoughts are now turning to their personal safety in the event of No Deal.

    95% contempt for our MPs (polling) easily includes the nutters, and I really worry what might happen to some of them (any party) in the event of No Deal.

    Those same MPs are quite happy recklessly to risk avoidable deaths in pursuit of their desired outcome. Forgive me if they are not uppermost in my thoughts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,424
    david_herdson said:

    Excellent article. There is a distinct irony that while so many refuse to trust their colleagues in Westminster, whether within the House, their party, the government or cross-party, so many of these self same MPs are also relying on and hoping for those same colleagues to do the decent thing (which they themselves would rather not), and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

    How many ?
    I can understand some of the ERG, and perhaps a handful of Labour MPs, but the idea that there is a cohort of 200 MPs who haven’t yet voted for it, and nonetheless want to see it carried, seems utterly fanciful.

    I could, of course, be wrong, but no one has presented any credible eveidence beyond the bare assertion.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,119
    dyedwoolie said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    On topic, very good article from Aaron.

    I have friends who are MPs and - to be honest - my thoughts are now turning to their personal safety in the event of No Deal.

    95% contempt for our MPs (polling) easily includes the nutters, and I really worry what might happen to some of them (any party) in the event of No Deal.

    Brexit has so split the nation I'm afraid that risk exists in a no Brexit scenario too
    Indeed.
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 217
    notme2 said:

    Concanvasser said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    He won’t. He doesn’t want to achieve a consensus.

    He’ll keep saying he does, and then finding reasons why he can’t.
    He just wants the Tories to own either No deal or No Brexit. He's not fussed which ! Either probably isn't good for the Tories.
    Neither is what we would have wanted but only one is definitely fatal for the Party. If push comes to shove, as is looking likely, No Deal is the Conservative Party's least worst option as it is now for the country, if the WA cannot pass.
    There’s been a change on the doorstep in the last week. Those ERG holdouts need to knock on a few doors and speak to Con pledges..
    I agree with you. Conservative voters would take the WA deal. It seems that not enough Conservative MPs (and far from just ERG ers, the hardcore Tory remainers are just as at fault) will do so. If it cannot pass No Brexit would kill the Conservative Party. No Deal is recoverable.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    eristdoof said:

    Thinking aloud, is there anything that May can threaten to make the consequences of not passing MV3 totally unacceptable to All conservatives and the DUP? I. e. the neuclear option.

    For the Tories: expel any MPs who vote against MV3, and then call a GE.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:


    The petition seems to be running at 1-1,500 a minute, now, although a couple of thousand were just deleted.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/1108682038184419328
    Uh, you know there are British citizens living abroad, right?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.

    Won't she be well gone, living full time in a remote Welsh cottage, by the time it comes for repercussions?
    I've always thought that if a No Deal Brexit turned out to be at the bad end of the spectrum (food shortages, unavailability of medicines, a lot of job losses - in other words, realistically, deaths) then those perceived as responsible would need armed protection for the rest of their lives.

    In those circumstances I doubt whether retirement to a Welsh cottage would afford much peace of mind.
    All former PMs require armed protection for the rest of their lives.
    I just think this one would require more than a few discreetly deployed officers. Maybe a full platoon? What do people think?
    Probably there is no real threat to retired PMs. Terrorists these days kill those out having fun at concerts, nightclubs and football matches. They target holidaymakers and tourists, not superannuated politicians.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited March 2019
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When we No Deal Brexit, it will not be the EU that is held responsible by the voters. It won't be the PM either. It will be the MPs.

    Great job, guys.

    The buck stops with the PM.
    Yet she is less unpopular than either party or mps generally so I think not in the electorates mind
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Concanvasser said:

    No Deal is recoverable.

    It really isn't
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,119
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    On topic, very good article from Aaron.

    I have friends who are MPs and - to be honest - my thoughts are now turning to their personal safety in the event of No Deal.

    95% contempt for our MPs (polling) easily includes the nutters, and I really worry what might happen to some of them (any party) in the event of No Deal.

    Those same MPs are quite happy recklessly to risk avoidable deaths in pursuit of their desired outcome. Forgive me if they are not uppermost in my thoughts.
    I hope you don’t really mean that.

    I consider those two things to be linked. If unavoidable deaths do occur there may be a fair few very angry people.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    dyedwoolie said:

    Yet she is less unpopular than either party or mps generally so I think not in the electorates mind

    https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1108708978433888257
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2019
    Nigelb said:

    david_herdson said:

    Excellent article. There is a distinct irony that while so many refuse to trust their colleagues in Westminster, whether within the House, their party, the government or cross-party, so many of these self same MPs are also relying on and hoping for those same colleagues to do the decent thing (which they themselves would rather not), and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

    How many ?
    I can understand some of the ERG, and perhaps a handful of Labour MPs, but the idea that there is a cohort of 200 MPs who haven’t yet voted for it, and nonetheless want to see it carried, seems utterly fanciful.

    I could, of course, be wrong, but no one has presented any credible eveidence beyond the bare assertion.

    You are probably right, but it's the wrong question. The key question is how many MPs would prefer the EU's deal to what the actual alternative turns out to be (most likely a No Deal crashout next week, I think, given where we are).
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    dyedwoolie said:

    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When we No Deal Brexit, it will not be the EU that is held responsible by the voters. It won't be the PM either. It will be the MPs.

    Great job, guys.

    The buck stops with the PM.
    Yet she is less unpopular than either party or mps generally so I think not in the electorates mind
    Let's wait to see the effect of her meltdown last night on the polls before we jump to any conclusions
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,673
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When we No Deal Brexit, it will not be the EU that is held responsible by the voters. It won't be the PM either. It will be the MPs.

    Great job, guys.

    The buck stops with the PM.
    Not this time.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    FPT
    Sean_F said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    For the first time I think it's actually going to be a No Deal on Friday isn't it?

    This is August 1914. Not many actually want war/no deal, but everyone is too entrenched and stubborn to compromise to avoid it.

    Most people involved think they can win total victory over their opponents.
    But you see PB told me the ERG are all bloody-minded stupid ****wits who were destroying Brexit, when total victory for them now seems more likely than ever...
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Chris said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    The question now is how will Theresa manage the repercussions of the No Deal. She's gone some way to shifting to blame to parliament, but of course she doesn't want the public to take it out on her own MPs when she stands at the next election. Perhaps making it all about her is the solution, with the MPs being portrayed as mere devices to facilitate her election.

    Won't she be well gone, living full time in a remote Welsh cottage, by the time it comes for repercussions?
    I've always thought that if a No Deal Brexit turned out to be at the bad end of the spectrum (food shortages, unavailability of medicines, a lot of job losses - in other words, realistically, deaths) then those perceived as responsible would need armed protection for the rest of their lives.

    In those circumstances I doubt whether retirement to a Welsh cottage would afford much peace of mind.
    All former PMs require armed protection for the rest of their lives.
    I just think this one would require more than a few discreetly deployed officers. Maybe a full platoon? What do people think?
    Probably there is no real threat to retired PMs. Terrorists these days kill those out having fun at concerts, nightclubs and football matches. They target holidaymakers and tourists, not superannuated politicians.
    Perhaps if there was that risk, it might change behaviours. At present, the belief seems to be that actions are consequenceless and it’s all somebody else’s fault. Fuck them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,119
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When we No Deal Brexit, it will not be the EU that is held responsible by the voters. It won't be the PM either. It will be the MPs.

    Great job, guys.

    The buck stops with the PM.
    Unfortunately, right now, it really does stop with the MPs.

    They have to either eject her as PM and install an alternative administration, vote to revoke, or vote for her Deal, or we get No Deal.

    There are no other choices, and their choice it is.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Scott_P said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Yet she is less unpopular than either party or mps generally so I think not in the electorates mind

    https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1108708978433888257
    Indeed. Its the government, not her that is more unpopular. She us the least unpopular of many unpopular things
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/Laura_K_Hughes/status/1108710452060667904
  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393
    notme2 said:

    glw said:

    notme2 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1108701861056561152

    Except his proposal is exactly the same, replacing a temporary CU with a permanent one.

    When...when is he going to do this? We have a week and there is only one deal on the table.
    And the permanent CU is not for this stage of negotiations but the next!!
    Exactly. God help us, it seems that most of our MPs and even some party leaders are unaware of what is actually being negotiated.
    How about “ HMG will carry out parallel negotiations on our future trade agreement with the EU that includes membership of the CU and will bring the option back to parliament”
    Labour have made it clear that they accept the WA but want a different political declaration - in other words they could easily vote for the deal without surrendering their plan for the future but have chosen not to.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,636
    The lead's half-hearted attempt to offer a defence of the PM doesn't wash, I'm afraid.

    Although not a Conservative, I am someone who has stuck up for her in the past, as regular PB'ers will know. But the mess we are now in is substantially of her making, and the bad blood and bitterness she has fuelled will poison the next stages of this process, whatever is decided next week.

    She has been revealed as cynical and dishonest, as well as incapable, and simply needs to go. The fact that both remainers and leavers are saying this tells us all we need to know.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,119
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Nigelb said:

    david_herdson said:

    Excellent article. There is a distinct irony that while so many refuse to trust their colleagues in Westminster, whether within the House, their party, the government or cross-party, so many of these self same MPs are also relying on and hoping for those same colleagues to do the decent thing (which they themselves would rather not), and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

    How many ?
    I can understand some of the ERG, and perhaps a handful of Labour MPs, but the idea that there is a cohort of 200 MPs who haven’t yet voted for it, and nonetheless want to see it carried, seems utterly fanciful.

    I could, of course, be wrong, but no one has presented any credible eveidence beyond the bare assertion.

    You are probably right, but it's the wrong question. The key question is how many MPs would prefer the EU's deal to what the actual alternative turns out to be (most likely a No Deal crashout next week, I think, given where we are).
    Some may feel (possibly correctly) that the EU27 will fold & extend in the final 24 hours if MV3 crashes down.

    They really don’t want No Deal either.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    On topic, very good article from Aaron.

    I have friends who are MPs and - to be honest - my thoughts are now turning to their personal safety in the event of No Deal.

    95% contempt for our MPs (polling) easily includes the nutters, and I really worry what might happen to some of them (any party) in the event of No Deal.

    Those same MPs are quite happy recklessly to risk avoidable deaths in pursuit of their desired outcome. Forgive me if they are not uppermost in my thoughts.
    I hope you don’t really mean that.

    I consider those two things to be linked. If unavoidable deaths do occur there may be a fair few very angry people.
    These MPs are making their choices with their eyes open. They are recklessly risking the lives of others. If that would result in them feeling a little fear of their own, well, perhaps the remedy now is obvious?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Stereotomy said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    When we No Deal Brexit, it will not be the EU that is held responsible by the voters. It won't be the PM either. It will be the MPs.

    Great job, guys.

    The buck stops with the PM.
    Yet she is less unpopular than either party or mps generally so I think not in the electorates mind
    Let's wait to see the effect of her meltdown last night on the polls before we jump to any conclusions
    No effect at all is my guess. Toties 4 ahead with MORI today, needs to be a hell of a shift on one angry, I'm on your side, speech
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,393
    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:


    The petition seems to be running at 1-1,500 a minute, now, although a couple of thousand were just deleted.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/1108682038184419328
    I think they're mostly kosher. There are nearly 5,000 signatures each from places like Brighton, Hove, Cambridge, whereas the numbers are in the high hundreds for Leave-voting constituencies.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Stereotomy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Sean_F said:


    The petition seems to be running at 1-1,500 a minute, now, although a couple of thousand were just deleted.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/HughRBennett/status/1108682038184419328
    Uh, you know there are British citizens living abroad, right?
    Also, there's a whole 12 signatures from Russia, compared with over 3k from Spain. One from N Korea. Seems about right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,424
    edited March 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Nigelb said:

    david_herdson said:

    Excellent article. There is a distinct irony that while so many refuse to trust their colleagues in Westminster, whether within the House, their party, the government or cross-party, so many of these self same MPs are also relying on and hoping for those same colleagues to do the decent thing (which they themselves would rather not), and vote for the Withdrawal Agreement.

    How many ?
    I can understand some of the ERG, and perhaps a handful of Labour MPs, but the idea that there is a cohort of 200 MPs who haven’t yet voted for it, and nonetheless want to see it carried, seems utterly fanciful.

    I could, of course, be wrong, but no one has presented any credible eveidence beyond the bare assertion.

    You are probably right, but it's the wrong question. The key question is how many MPs would prefer the EU's deal to what the actual alternative turns out to be (most likely a No Deal crashout next week, I think, given where we are).
    Which is a reasonable question. And the responsibility for that binary choice being put before a fractured parliament at the last possible moment lies entirely with May.
    Both PM and MPs will be to blame if we No Deal.

  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    Soubry v Farage got very feisty on Politics Live just now.
This discussion has been closed.

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