politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A no deal Brexit on March 29th move from a 12% chance to 22% i
Comments
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+lotsRichard_Nabavi said:
Sure, she's useless at stroking their childish egos. But so what? This is about the future of the country, not the amour-propre of MPs. Or at least it should be.DanSmith said:
They've twice voted her deal down by record breaking margins. A bit of self reflection from her would go a long way, rather than turning against the people she needs.Richard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:0 -
Yep. And Tory Lee also very critical. May appears to have burned her bridges.williamglenn said:Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
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IndeedTudorRose said:
And I don't think Bercow will want to be held responsible for 'no deal', which is what happens if the deal isn't voted on.HYUFD said:
The date will change to Junerottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
Oh sure. In fact I commented on the morning after the disastrous 2017 election that she was completely unsuited to the wheedling and cajoling needed for a hung parliament. But so what? MPs are meant to be grown-ups looking after the interests of the country, not children who need to be soothed and coaxed into eating their greens.DanSmith said:
To be honest I think this is a pretty basic leadership skills here. Charm people, create a few power blocks of your own, make it possible for your opponents to climb down at the last minute. A last minute Dead vs No Deal vote should be an easy win for May, apart from the ERG & DUP, everyone is going to be looking for a reason to vote for her deal. She's made that impossible for a lot of people, probably too many.Richard_Nabavi said:
Sure, she's useless at stroking their childish egos. But so what? This is about the future of the country, not the amour-propre of MPs. Or at least it should be.DanSmith said:
They've twice voted her deal down by record breaking margins. A bit of self reflection from her would go a long way, rather than turning against the people she needs.Richard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:0 -
Liz Kendall on Newsnight also says no way to the Deal.williamglenn said:Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
May is not good at wooing, is she!0 -
It's not a conflict between the forces of light, represented by Corbyn, Grieve, and Francois, and the forces of darkness, led by May.Jonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
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Changing the date doesn't make it any different.HYUFD said:
The date will change to Junerottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.0 -
Perhaps May should take a leaf out of Cromwell's book, enter the Commons with some soldiers and dismiss half the MPswilliamglenn said:Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
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"Make 'netting' hedgerows to prevent birds from nesting a criminal offence.
886 signatures in the last hour"
I'm as much an animal lover as anyone else, but the word "priorities" does come to mind when I see that listed as the second most popular.0 -
So no deal it iswilliamglenn said:Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
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It may get through if Letwin and Cooper and Boles can amemd the political declaration to Single Market and Customs Union BINOsolarflare said:
Changing the date doesn't make it any different.HYUFD said:
The date will change to Junerottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.0 -
That substantial enough for the Speaker?HYUFD said:
The date will change to Junerottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
MPs have already had two opportunities to avoid a no-deal Brexit.williamglenn said:Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
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MPs are really going for hyperbolic statements at the moment aren't they.williamglenn said:Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
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I expect so, he makes it up as he goes along, he will then allow the Kyle, Letwin, Boles amendmentsrottenborough said:
That substantial enough for the Speaker?HYUFD said:
The date will change to Junerottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
If you really must have a silk, Jo Maugham at Devereux has Brexit history (wins in Wightman and I think he had at least a hand in Miller, though I imagine his clerk will tell you his diary's full) and so does Jessica Simor (although she keeps getting beat, most convincingly in Wilson). If you're happy to engage a junior for an op, I read a blog by Rose Slowe at Foundry Chambers on similar lines to your argument today, so that's also an option.Anna said:If I want to launch a legal challenge to Theresa May's ability to use Royal Prerogative to extend or revoke Article 50 (Gina Miller style), How do I go about it? Can anyone recommend a good QC to approach?
Looking at the Miller decision the judges said:
"the EU Treaties not only concern the international relations of the United Kingdom, they are a source of domestic law, and they are a source of domestic legal rights many of which are inextricably linked with domestic law from other sources. Accordingly, the Royal prerogative to make and unmake treaties, which operates wholly on the international plane, cannot be exercised in relation to the EU Treaties, at least in the absence of domestic sanction in appropriate statutory form."
I think this (and other parts of the judgement) clearly apply to an extension under Article 50 (3) which has profound implications for rights and UK law - for example next Saturday, UK citizens would still be subject to a European Arrest Warrant because of this exercise of prerogative.
The European Withdrawal Act provides a mechanism for the Minister to change the exit date, but does not provide the "unequivocal" authority to do so that the judges in the Miller case said was needed to notify for withdrawal under Article 50.
If the European Withdrawal (Notification) Act was needed to trigger Article 50 (2), I don't see why a similar Act isn't needed for Theresa May to notify the EU under Article 50 (3) which has similarly profound legal consequences.0 -
+650viewcode said:
Sunil, if I started describing the stupidity, malevolence, or narcissism of our current MPs in the words I thought best expressed them, OGH would ban me. I didn't know it was possible to feel such contempt for MPs.Sunil_Prasannan said:MPs want to avoid a No-deal Brexit by... not voting for the deal?
Seriously?
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She can want whatever she likes. I seem to remember an election where she wanted to win a big majority. What I'm talking about is her strategy for achieving what she wants. And her strategy has been to spend most of a year asking the EU for the same thing over and over again, giving up, then spending another 5 months asking parliament for the same thing over and over again, then giving up again and blaming everyone but herself.Richard_Nabavi said:
Except that it's not her that has been running down the clock. She wanted the EU's deal (often wrong called her deal) signed off in November or December, which would have given plenty of time.Stereotomy said:Some of have been saying for months that May's strategy of running down the clock was utterly reckless and doomed to fail. After spending that time making excuse after excuse for her, making smug comments about how MPs are bound to give into her blackmail (usually described as "minds being focussed"), her cheerleaders have now decided not to show a moment's humility or reflection, and instead immediately pivoted to "it's all the MPs' fault!" Incredible.
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She knows it will be no deal brexitIanB2 said:
Yep. And Tory Lee also very critical. May appears to have burned her bridges.williamglenn said:Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
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How many times? In a negotiation, one party does not get to unilaterally rewrite part of an agreement and sign it off.HYUFD said:
It may get through if Letwin and Cooper and Boles can amemd the political declaration to Single Market and Customs Union BINOsolarflare said:
Changing the date doesn't make it any different.HYUFD said:
The date will change to Junerottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.
Why do people in this country, whether Remain or Leave, laity or MPs, find this so hard to understand?0 -
Cooking a stuffed pig?Richard_Nabavi said:
I can see the second phrase being handy but I'm wondering when I might have occasion to deploy the first.SeanT said:fpt for SeanF on Spartacus
The phrases
"Enough. Put cock in arse"
and
"Crixus, show me to wine"
Have entered my personal lexicon. They give me solace when life weighs heavy. You are in for a treat.0 -
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
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I am sure that Bercow can argue that the last few days have created a material change of circumstance if it's the only way to give the Commons a chance to vote for an alternative to no deal.rottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
As opposed to big rollsFrancisUrquhart said:
Sounds like I need to get stocked up on bog rollswilliamglenn said:Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
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Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?RoyalBlue said:
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.dixiedean said:
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.
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Well they are of course the ones that have suffered the most over Brexit. They are the real victims here. I hope one day songs will be sung of their selfless heroismAndyJS said:
MPs are really going for hyperbolic statements at the moment aren't they.williamglenn said:Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
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Wake me up when it gets to 17.4 millionBarnesian said:
I've just signed the Revoke petition. Signature 211,213 and 940th in my constituency.Pulpstar said:I've just signed the petition in favour of May's deal. Signature 46 and 1st in my constituency
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/2415840 -
Her strategy has been to present MPs with the available options: Revoke/Referendum, the deal which the EU are prepared to agree to and which is non-negotiable now, or crashing out with no deal. You can criticise her tin ear and her lack of empathy, but it's impossible to criticise her logic. Those are the options.Stereotomy said:
She can want whatever she likes. I seem to remember an election where she wanted to win a big majority. What I'm talking about is her strategy for achieving what she wants. And her strategy has been to spend most of a year asking the EU for the same thing over and over again, giving up, then spending another 5 months asking parliament for the same thing over and over again, then giving up again and blaming everyone but herself.Richard_Nabavi said:
Except that it's not her that has been running down the clock. She wanted the EU's deal (often wrong called her deal) signed off in November or December, which would have given plenty of time.Stereotomy said:Some of have been saying for months that May's strategy of running down the clock was utterly reckless and doomed to fail. After spending that time making excuse after excuse for her, making smug comments about how MPs are bound to give into her blackmail (usually described as "minds being focussed"), her cheerleaders have now decided not to show a moment's humility or reflection, and instead immediately pivoted to "it's all the MPs' fault!" Incredible.
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Right, it's not Theresa May's fault that the Commons has allowed her to be PM for nearly three years.Richard_Nabavi said:
Oh sure. In fact I commented on the morning after the disastrous 2017 election that she was completely unsuited to the wheedling and cajoling needed for a hung parliament. But so what? MPs are meant to be grown-ups looking after the interests of the country, not children who need to be soothed and coaxed into eating their greens.DanSmith said:
To be honest I think this is a pretty basic leadership skills here. Charm people, create a few power blocks of your own, make it possible for your opponents to climb down at the last minute. A last minute Dead vs No Deal vote should be an easy win for May, apart from the ERG & DUP, everyone is going to be looking for a reason to vote for her deal. She's made that impossible for a lot of people, probably too many.Richard_Nabavi said:
Sure, she's useless at stroking their childish egos. But so what? This is about the future of the country, not the amour-propre of MPs. Or at least it should be.DanSmith said:
They've twice voted her deal down by record breaking margins. A bit of self reflection from her would go a long way, rather than turning against the people she needs.Richard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:0 -
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mindJonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
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Well, quite. If a majority had agreed that someone else could do a better job they could have chosen someone else. The facts would remain the same, of course.OblitusSumMe said:
Right, it's not Theresa May's fault that the Commons has allowed her to be PM for nearly three years.Richard_Nabavi said:
Oh sure. In fact I commented on the morning after the disastrous 2017 election that she was completely unsuited to the wheedling and cajoling needed for a hung parliament. But so what? MPs are meant to be grown-ups looking after the interests of the country, not children who need to be soothed and coaxed into eating their greens.DanSmith said:
To be honest I think this is a pretty basic leadership skills here. Charm people, create a few power blocks of your own, make it possible for your opponents to climb down at the last minute. A last minute Dead vs No Deal vote should be an easy win for May, apart from the ERG & DUP, everyone is going to be looking for a reason to vote for her deal. She's made that impossible for a lot of people, probably too many.Richard_Nabavi said:
Sure, she's useless at stroking their childish egos. But so what? This is about the future of the country, not the amour-propre of MPs. Or at least it should be.DanSmith said:
They've twice voted her deal down by record breaking margins. A bit of self reflection from her would go a long way, rather than turning against the people she needs.Richard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:0 -
Big G is supporting the deal. Under no logic (that I'm aware of) can supporting the deal be described as supporting no deal.Jonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
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An extension. I would have thought this needs full legislation as there is already an exit date on the Statute Book, with Royal Assent. If we deliver this on time, we will look back at this period and wonder what all the fuss was about.0
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And what would the result be if they called it “machine learning”?FrancisUrquhart said:A new survey on Europeans’ attitudes towards technology found that a quarter of people would prefer it if policy decisions were made by artificial intelligence instead of politicians.
https://qz.com/1576057/could-ai-make-better-policy-than-politicians/0 -
No. Labour will not support any non-Labour PM, and vice versa for the Tories.dixiedean said:
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?RoyalBlue said:
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.dixiedean said:
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.0 -
"Tired of MPs talking about nothing but Brexit"
Not 'alf!0 -
It's non-negotiable now? And why is that? Do you think it might have something to do with somebody running down the clock?Richard_Nabavi said:
Her strategy has been to present MPs with the available options: Revoke/Referendum, the deal which the EU are prepared to agree to and which is non-negotiable now, or crashing out with no deal. You can criticise her tin ear and her lack of empathy, but it's impossible to criticise her logic. Those are the options.Stereotomy said:
She can want whatever she likes. I seem to remember an election where she wanted to win a big majority. What I'm talking about is her strategy for achieving what she wants. And her strategy has been to spend most of a year asking the EU for the same thing over and over again, giving up, then spending another 5 months asking parliament for the same thing over and over again, then giving up again and blaming everyone but herself.Richard_Nabavi said:
Except that it's not her that has been running down the clock. She wanted the EU's deal (often wrong called her deal) signed off in November or December, which would have given plenty of time.Stereotomy said:Some of have been saying for months that May's strategy of running down the clock was utterly reckless and doomed to fail. After spending that time making excuse after excuse for her, making smug comments about how MPs are bound to give into her blackmail (usually described as "minds being focussed"), her cheerleaders have now decided not to show a moment's humility or reflection, and instead immediately pivoted to "it's all the MPs' fault!" Incredible.
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Those petition scores.
No deal 369,417
Revoke 248,641
Deal 48
Guess which option the friendless Prime Minister is still pushing?0 -
It's called MP Logic.TudorRose said:
Big G is supporting the deal. Under no logic (that I'm aware of) can supporting the deal be described as supporting no deal.Jonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mindJonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
Farage on Peston says No Deal is now the only way to deliver Brexit0
-
No. Her majority is too small to allow her to be party leader even if the majority of party members could stomach her, which they can't. The members won't stand for being locked out of choosing the leader again.dixiedean said:
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?RoyalBlue said:
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.dixiedean said:
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.0 -
And in any case it would not change the Brexit Parliamentary arithmetic. The EU will only give an extension if they are convinced that the UK has a clear plan for the future and no change of PM will result in that (in the short term).RoyalBlue said:
No. Labour will not support any non-Labour PM, and vice versa for the Tories.dixiedean said:
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?RoyalBlue said:
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.dixiedean said:
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.0 -
As Corbyn demonstrated today that he is more concerned with not being in the same room as Chuka Umunna than he is with the future of the UK, I don’t see this getting very far.williamglenn said:
0 -
No. The EU have been saying it's non-negotiable since November. Of course the political declaration can be changed, now or in the future. If MPs want that, that's easy. They just need to ratify the current deal first.Stereotomy said:
It's non-negotiable now? And why is that? Do you think it might have something to do with somebody running down the clock?Richard_Nabavi said:
Her strategy has been to present MPs with the available options: Revoke/Referendum, the deal which the EU are prepared to agree to and which is non-negotiable now, or crashing out with no deal. You can criticise her tin ear and her lack of empathy, but it's impossible to criticise her logic. Those are the options.Stereotomy said:
She can want whatever she likes. I seem to remember an election where she wanted to win a big majority. What I'm talking about is her strategy for achieving what she wants. And her strategy has been to spend most of a year asking the EU for the same thing over and over again, giving up, then spending another 5 months asking parliament for the same thing over and over again, then giving up again and blaming everyone but herself.Richard_Nabavi said:
Except that it's not her that has been running down the clock. She wanted the EU's deal (often wrong called her deal) signed off in November or December, which would have given plenty of time.Stereotomy said:Some of have been saying for months that May's strategy of running down the clock was utterly reckless and doomed to fail. After spending that time making excuse after excuse for her, making smug comments about how MPs are bound to give into her blackmail (usually described as "minds being focussed"), her cheerleaders have now decided not to show a moment's humility or reflection, and instead immediately pivoted to "it's all the MPs' fault!" Incredible.
0 -
They supported Churchill. Perhaps Ken Clarke as the only Tory who voted against Article 50 is the person we need to lead a temporary government of national unity.RoyalBlue said:
No. Labour will not support any non-Labour PM, and vice versa for the Tories.dixiedean said:
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?RoyalBlue said:
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.dixiedean said:
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.0 -
Major flaws? Such as...?Jonathan said:
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mindJonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
He’s right about the denial but he is wrong about another deal. There is no other deal. It’s this deal or no deal unless the government completely collapses and we revoke. Pretending that there is another deal is even more delusional than May._Anazina_ said:
In all fairness, the Corbynator is probably right in this case. Stopped clock syndrome, certainly. But right nevertheless.williamglenn said:0 -
The Agreement does not need to be changed, all that needs changing is the political declaration on the future relationship, then the Agreement can be passed in full and without one letter changed.RoyalBlue said:
How many times? In a negotiation, one party does not get to unilaterally rewrite part of an agreement and sign it off.HYUFD said:
It may get through if Letwin and Cooper and Boles can amemd the political declaration to Single Market and Customs Union BINOsolarflare said:
Changing the date doesn't make it any different.HYUFD said:
The date will change to Junerottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.
Why do people in this country, whether Remain or Leave, laity or MPs, find this so hard to understand?
The political declaration is NOT part of the Withdrawal Agreement0 -
Both me and my Labour MP are in favour of the dealOblitusSumMe said:Those petition scores.
No deal 369,417
Revoke 248,641
Deal 48
Guess which option the friendless Prime Minister is still pushing?
One of the 48 0 -
It can if her deal is evidently unavailable and by supporting it you block other options. It’s like wanting to marry Liz Taylor, being turned down twice and claiming wanting to marry Liz Taylor is enough to stop you being single. When all you have to do is forget Liz and go out with someone else.TudorRose said:
Big G is supporting the deal. Under no logic (that I'm aware of) can supporting the deal be described as supporting no deal.Jonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
If it does not come back at there no amendments?HYUFD said:
It may get through if Letwin and Cooper and Boles can amemd the political declaration to Single Market and Customs Union BINOsolarflare said:
Changing the date doesn't make it any different.HYUFD said:
The date will change to Junerottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.0 -
It could be done as a short term 'one-job' government headed by someone not in the running for future PM, like Ken Clarke. But I agree it's asking a lot from MPs who are unlikely to rise to the occasion.RoyalBlue said:
No. Labour will not support any non-Labour PM, and vice versa for the Tories.dixiedean said:
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?RoyalBlue said:
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.dixiedean said:
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.0 -
It still requires mutual agreement with the EU and needs to be negotiated, even if it's something that can be done relatively quickly.HYUFD said:
The Agreement does not need to be changed, all that needs changing is the political declaration on the future relationship, then the Agreement can be passed in full and without one letter changed.RoyalBlue said:
How many times? In a negotiation, one party does not get to unilaterally rewrite part of an agreement and sign it off.HYUFD said:
It may get through if Letwin and Cooper and Boles can amemd the political declaration to Single Market and Customs Union BINOsolarflare said:
Changing the date doesn't make it any different.HYUFD said:
The date will change to Junerottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.
Why do people in this country, whether Remain or Leave, laity or MPs, find this so hard to understand?
The political declaration is NOT part of the Withdrawal Agreement0 -
There isn't any deal Corbyn would have supported - for him it's about bringing down the government, nothing to do with the substance. See his reaction to Umunna today, or his response to May's previous approaches (sending her a signed copy of the Labour manifesto).Jonathan said:
The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
0 -
I agree that Kenny Clarke should be installed immediately as PM in a Gnu.williamglenn said:
They supported Churchill. Perhaps Ken Clarke as the only Tory who voted against Article 50 is the person we need to lead a temporary government of national unity.RoyalBlue said:
No. Labour will not support any non-Labour PM, and vice versa for the Tories.dixiedean said:
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?RoyalBlue said:
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.dixiedean said:
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.
Bring on Kenny C.
Bring on the Gnu.
You’re better off on a gnu.0 -
Well its at 256,000 signatures now, so about 2/3 of the way there. And it was putting on about 1,000 per minute earlier.OblitusSumMe said:There's a pro no deal petition with nearly 370,000 signatures. The revoke petition has some way to go.
0 -
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Major flaws? Such as...?Jonathan said:
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mindJonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
The EU made it clear in November it was their deal (note: THEIR deal, not May's), or no deal.Jonathan said:
It can if her deal is evidently unavailable and by supporting it you block other options. It’s like wanting to marry Liz Taylor, being turned down twice and claiming wanting to marry Liz Taylor is enough to stop you being single. When all you have to do is forget Liz and go out with someone else.TudorRose said:
Big G is supporting the deal. Under no logic (that I'm aware of) can supporting the deal be described as supporting no deal.Jonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
Another amazing day in Brexit with mps all upset because they were called out publically by the PM
If they behaved like adults it would not be needed
Anyway, time to wish everyone a good night's rest
Good night folks0 -
What is it that you find so objectionable in the WA?Jonathan said:
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mindJonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
We need some polling on Rejoin0
-
It makes me worse off and gives me less self determination that remaining in the EU. I would not sign a contract without a unilateral exit clause.Sean_F said:
What is it that you find so objectionable in the WA?Jonathan said:
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mindJonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
The petition (on the website) with the most signatures is "Ban all ISIS members from returning to UK" which has 582,529 signatures. That's the bar for the revoke petition.0
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Just run a stop watch and revoke is still putting on 1,000 a minute. No deal is adding numbers too, though at a more measured pace.0
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We have had umpteen polls this week on itedmundintokyo said:We need some polling on Rejoin
0 -
He'll be off for a spot of short-selling around the event, too, no doubt, like last time .. *allegedly*.HYUFD said:Farage on Peston says No Deal is now the only way to deliver Brexit
0 -
Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?Jonathan said:
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Major flaws? Such as...?Jonathan said:
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mindJonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
As long as the main Withdrawal Agreement is passed the political declaration detail can easily be kicked into the future relationship talks and given the amendment would be for SM and Customs Union BINO as the future relationship the EU would happily agree as it would be less Brexity a future relationship than May's proposed future relationshipwilliamglenn said:
It still requires mutual agreement with the EU and needs to be negotiated, even if it's something that can be done relatively quickly.HYUFD said:
The Agreement does not need to be changed, all that needs changing is the political declaration on the future relationship, then the Agreement can be passed in full and without one letter changed.RoyalBlue said:
How many times? In a negotiation, one party does not get to unilaterally rewrite part of an agreement and sign it off.HYUFD said:
It may get through if Letwin and Cooper and Boles can amemd the political declaration to Single Market and Customs Union BINOsolarflare said:
Changing the date doesn't make it any different.HYUFD said:
The date will change to Junerottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.
Why do people in this country, whether Remain or Leave, laity or MPs, find this so hard to understand?
The political declaration is NOT part of the Withdrawal Agreement0 -
Maybe it’s time to go to bed.Recidivist said:Just run a stop watch and revoke is still putting on 1,000 a minute. No deal is adding numbers too, though at a more measured pace.
0 -
Parliament holds the executive to account. Let’s hope we see more of that. Night night.Big_G_NorthWales said:Another amazing day in Brexit with mps all upset because they were called out publically by the PM
If they behaved like adults it would not be needed
Anyway, time to wish everyone a good night's rest
Good night folks0 -
I wish it the best, but people are heading to bed now and it might not be all over Twitter by the morning.Recidivist said:
Well its at 256,000 signatures now, so about 2/3 of the way there. And it was putting on about 1,000 per minute earlier.OblitusSumMe said:There's a pro no deal petition with nearly 370,000 signatures. The revoke petition has some way to go.
0 -
Revoke going up about 1000 per minute at the moment, or in @Casino_Royale accounting, 3 men and a dog...OblitusSumMe said:Those petition scores.
No deal 369,417
Revoke 248,641
Deal 48
Guess which option the friendless Prime Minister is still pushing?0 -
Is this like the 2nd referendum petition that was found to have 40k signatures from the Vatican?Recidivist said:Just run a stop watch and revoke is still putting on 1,000 a minute. No deal is adding numbers too, though at a more measured pace.
Online polls/petitions are a complete joke.0 -
My deal would have replaced the bespoke backstop with a clause rejoining after two years if we failed to find a trade deal.Sean_F said:
Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?Jonathan said:
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Major flaws? Such as...?Jonathan said:
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mindJonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
Conservative Leadership Race started in earnest this afternoon.
Just wandering through Collonades in House of Commons this afternoon talking to Political Editor of a National Broadsheet when he points out a 'wealthy businessman' steaming past as if he owns the place with a cluster of cronys.
"That's Raab's money man" he says.
The starting gun has been fired.
#Classy.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Edit - of course, that's because EVERYONE is assuming TM will be gone by 30/60 -
Hague on Peston says a fragmentation of the main parties is possible but not yet likely or desirable0
-
Kyle/Wilson is a dead duck now. There isn't time for a referendum before June 30, and even if there was, it's not clear that it would be acceptable to the EU to delay acceptance of the WA to be contingent on a referendum which would need enabling legislation passing through a parliament that seems constitutionally incapable of taking any positive decision.IanB2 said:
Then it may hang on Kyle/Wilson passingdavid_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
Sorry, Jonathan, but that bit about the backstop is complete tosh. In the (temporary) backstop we'd be out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the political structures, out of the EU security structures, out of the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in domestic law, out of the Single Market rules for services [unfortunately], completely out of the Freedom of Movement directive - and we wouldn't have to pay a centime in fees. (We used to call this the 'common market' in the old days).Jonathan said:Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.0 -
-
And why would they do a deal in those circumstances?Jonathan said:
My deal would have replaced the bespoke backstop with a clause rejoining after two years if we failed to find a trade deal.Sean_F said:
Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?Jonathan said:
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Major flaws? Such as...?Jonathan said:
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mindJonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for thhe has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
I didn't hear about that. Presumably they were disqualified.Andrew said:
Is this like the 2nd referendum petition that was found to have 40k signatures from the Vatican?Recidivist said:Just run a stop watch and revoke is still putting on 1,000 a minute. No deal is adding numbers too, though at a more measured pace.
Online polls/petitions are a complete joke.0 -
1425 signatures in Jeremy Corbyn's constituency, but is he listening?Foxy said:
Revoke going up about 1000 per minute at the moment, or in @Casino_Royale accounting, 3 men and a dog...OblitusSumMe said:Those petition scores.
No deal 369,417
Revoke 248,641
Deal 48
Guess which option the friendless Prime Minister is still pushing?0 -
Was he bald and thuggish looking?bunnco said:Conservative Leadership Race started in earnest this afternoon.
Just wandering through Collonades in House of Commons this afternoon talking to Political Editor of a National Broadsheet when he points out a 'wealthy businessman' steaming past as if he owns the place with a cluster of cronys.
"That's Raab's money man" he says.
The starting gun has been fired.
#Classy.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Edit - of course, that's because EVERYONE is assuming TM will be gone by 30/60 -
It’s not tosh. In the EU we have influence on the regulations the still apply under the backstop. If the EU changed policy we have no say. We can’t even trigger A50 and leave to WTO if we really disagree.Richard_Nabavi said:
Sorry, Jonathan, but that bit about the backstop is complete tosh. In the (temporary) backstop we'd be out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the political structures, out of the EU security structures, out of the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in domestic law, out of the Single Market rules for services [unfortunately], completely out of the Freedom of Movement directive - and we wouldn't have to pay a centime in fees. (We used to call this the 'common market' in the old days).Jonathan said:Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.
The backstop is calculated risk not worth taking.0 -
There is no time for another deal - he of course knows this.Nigelb said:
As Corbyn demonstrated today that he is more concerned with not being in the same room as Chuka Umunna than he is with the future of the UK, I don’t see this getting very far.williamglenn said:0 -
Because, A50 to WTO with a two year lead time to prepare would be available if things completely broke down. An exit clause not available in the backstop.Floater said:
And why would they do a deal in those circumstances?Jonathan said:
My deal would have replaced the bespoke backstop with a clause rejoining after two years if we failed to find a trade deal.Sean_F said:
Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?Jonathan said:
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Major flaws? Such as...?Jonathan said:
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mindJonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
I agree Ken Clarke. It has to be someone whose has nothing to gain personally or give party advantage (rules out Vince)IanB2 said:
It could be done as a short term 'one-job' government headed by someone not in the running for future PM, like Ken Clarke. But I agree it's asking a lot from MPs who are unlikely to rise to the occasion.RoyalBlue said:
No. Labour will not support any non-Labour PM, and vice versa for the Tories.dixiedean said:
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?RoyalBlue said:
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.dixiedean said:
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.0 -
The PM got all over the 10pm news tonight giving a speech attacking MPs for faffing about. The speech apparently resonated with the non-politico public and had us scratching our heads and MPs hanging theirs.
In completely unrelated news, next election taking place in May 2019 is 3.5 and shortening.0 -
The advice to go to bed is sound. But I think it is remarkable that in the time we have been pontificating on here a quarter of a million votes have been cast for an option that nobody was talking about a fortnight ago. Something to ponder.0
-
Peston gives soft Brexit most support in the Commons over EUref2, the Deal or No Deal but soft Brexit needs Remainers to swing behind it for a majority0
-
https://twitter.com/JoeWatts_/status/1108505193723899910Drutt said:The PM got all over the 10pm news tonight giving a speech attacking MPs for faffing about. The speech apparently resonated with the non-politico public and had us scratching our heads and MPs hanging theirs.
In completely unrelated news, next election taking place in May 2019 is 3.5 and shortening.0 -
Of course we'd have no say in product regulations. That's true of all forms of Brexit, including No Deal, or an EEA-style deal, or of course Labour's mythical unicorn-Brexit. Product regulations are set by the big boys (and sometimes at international levels above the EU). Does it matter particularly? No manufacturer is going to make special non-EU compliant variants just for us, so it's academic.Jonathan said:
It’s not tosh. In the EU we have influence on the regulations the still apply under the backstop. If the EU changed policy we have no say. We can’t even trigger A50 and leave to WTO if we really disagree.Richard_Nabavi said:
Sorry, Jonathan, but that bit about the backstop is complete tosh. In the (temporary) backstop we'd be out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the political structures, out of the EU security structures, out of the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in domestic law, out of the Single Market rules for services [unfortunately], completely out of the Freedom of Movement directive - and we wouldn't have to pay a centime in fees. (We used to call this the 'common market' in the old days).Jonathan said:Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.
The backstop is calculated risk not worth taking.0 -
No. But with Raab breaking cover so obviously and ostentatiously, the rest of the Grand National field will be jostling for position. The first to twelve quality endorsements will have the 'mo'.Charles said:Was he bald and thuggish looking?
And, almost as if it was planned, Govey endorses Truss this evening on SkyNews [Beth Rigby] with the classic line 'I agree with Liz' as the Pizza Plotters leave No 10. WIth today's 'The Sun Says' throwing its weight enthusiastically behind her too.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
0 -
Hague also pointed out even No Deal will require years of negotiations and agreements with the EU to be made0
-
It may seems a technicality to you, but being at the mercy of an as yet unelected EU parliament and comisssion in which we have no say is not a risk worth taking IMO.Richard_Nabavi said:
Of course we'd have no say in product regulations. That's true of all forms of Brexit, including No Deal, and of course including Labour's mythical unicorn-Brexit. Product regulations are set by the big boys (and sometimes at international levels above the EU). Does it matter particularly? No manufacturer is going to make special non-EU compliant variants just for us, so it's academic.Jonathan said:
It’s not tosh. In the EU we have influence on the regulations the still apply under the backstop. If the EU changed policy we have no say. We can’t even trigger A50 and leave to WTO if we really disagree.Richard_Nabavi said:
Sorry, Jonathan, but that bit about the backstop is complete tosh. In the (temporary) backstop we'd be out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the political structures, out of the EU security structures, out of the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in domestic law, out of the Single Market rules for services [unfortunately], completely out of the Freedom of Movement directive - and we wouldn't have to pay a centime in fees. (We used to call this the 'common market' in the old days).Jonathan said:Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.
The backstop is calculated risk not worth taking.0 -
But you said rejoin not move to WTOJonathan said:
Because, A50 to WTO with a two year lead time to prepare would be available if things completely broke down. An exit clause not available in the backstop.Floater said:
And why would they do a deal in those circumstances?Jonathan said:
My deal would have replaced the bespoke backstop with a clause rejoining after two years if we failed to find a trade deal.Sean_F said:
Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?Jonathan said:
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Major flaws? Such as...?Jonathan said:
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mindJonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
Yet you're prepared to take it if Corbyn proposes it?Jonathan said:
It may seems a technicality to you, but being at the mercy of an as yet unelected EU parliament and comisssion in which we have no say is not a risk worth taking IMO.Richard_Nabavi said:
Of course we'd have no say in product regulations. That's true of all forms of Brexit, including No Deal, and of course including Labour's mythical unicorn-Brexit. Product regulations are set by the big boys (and sometimes at international levels above the EU). Does it matter particularly? No manufacturer is going to make special non-EU compliant variants just for us, so it's academic.Jonathan said:
It’s not tosh. In the EU we have influence on the regulations the still apply under the backstop. If the EU changed policy we have no say. We can’t even trigger A50 and leave to WTO if we really disagree.Richard_Nabavi said:
Sorry, Jonathan, but that bit about the backstop is complete tosh. In the (temporary) backstop we'd be out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the political structures, out of the EU security structures, out of the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in domestic law, out of the Single Market rules for services [unfortunately], completely out of the Freedom of Movement directive - and we wouldn't have to pay a centime in fees. (We used to call this the 'common market' in the old days).Jonathan said:Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.
The backstop is calculated risk not worth taking.0 -
Figure it out!Floater said:
But you said rejoin not move to WTOJonathan said:
Because, A50 to WTO with a two year lead time to prepare would be available if things completely broke down. An exit clause not available in the backstop.Floater said:
And why would they do a deal in those circumstances?Jonathan said:
My deal would have replaced the bespoke backstop with a clause rejoining after two years if we failed to find a trade deal.Sean_F said:
Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?Jonathan said:
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Major flaws? Such as...?Jonathan said:
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mindJonathan said:
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
Strange that.......Richard_Nabavi said:
Yet you're prepared to take it if Corbyn proposes it?Jonathan said:
It may seems a technicality to you, but being at the mercy of an as yet unelected EU parliament and comisssion in which we have no say is not a risk worth taking IMO.Richard_Nabavi said:
Of course we'd have no say in product regulations. That's true of all forms of Brexit, including No Deal, and of course including Labour's mythical unicorn-Brexit. Product regulations are set by the big boys (and sometimes at international levels above the EU). Does it matter particularly? No manufacturer is going to make special non-EU compliant variants just for us, so it's academic.Jonathan said:
It’s not tosh. In the EU we have influence on the regulations the still apply under the backstop. If the EU changed policy we have no say. We can’t even trigger A50 and leave to WTO if we really disagree.Richard_Nabavi said:
Sorry, Jonathan, but that bit about the backstop is complete tosh. In the (temporary) backstop we'd be out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the political structures, out of the EU security structures, out of the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in domestic law, out of the Single Market rules for services [unfortunately], completely out of the Freedom of Movement directive - and we wouldn't have to pay a centime in fees. (We used to call this the 'common market' in the old days).Jonathan said:Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.
The backstop is calculated risk not worth taking.0
