A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.
They've twice voted her deal down by record breaking margins. A bit of self reflection from her would go a long way, rather than turning against the people she needs.
Sure, she's useless at stroking their childish egos. But so what? This is about the future of the country, not the amour-propre of MPs. Or at least it should be.
Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
Yep. And Tory Lee also very critical. May appears to have burned her bridges.
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.
The date will change to June
And I don't think Bercow will want to be held responsible for 'no deal', which is what happens if the deal isn't voted on.
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.
They've twice voted her deal down by record breaking margins. A bit of self reflection from her would go a long way, rather than turning against the people she needs.
Sure, she's useless at stroking their childish egos. But so what? This is about the future of the country, not the amour-propre of MPs. Or at least it should be.
To be honest I think this is a pretty basic leadership skills here. Charm people, create a few power blocks of your own, make it possible for your opponents to climb down at the last minute. A last minute Dead vs No Deal vote should be an easy win for May, apart from the ERG & DUP, everyone is going to be looking for a reason to vote for her deal. She's made that impossible for a lot of people, probably too many.
Oh sure. In fact I commented on the morning after the disastrous 2017 election that she was completely unsuited to the wheedling and cajoling needed for a hung parliament. But so what? MPs are meant to be grown-ups looking after the interests of the country, not children who need to be soothed and coaxed into eating their greens.
Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
Liz Kendall on Newsnight also says no way to the Deal.
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
It's not a conflict between the forces of light, represented by Corbyn, Grieve, and Francois, and the forces of darkness, led by May.
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.
The date will change to June
Changing the date doesn't make it any different.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.
Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
Perhaps May should take a leaf out of Cromwell's book, enter the Commons with some soldiers and dismiss half the MPs
Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.
The date will change to June
Changing the date doesn't make it any different.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.
It may get through if Letwin and Cooper and Boles can amemd the political declaration to Single Market and Customs Union BINO
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.
Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
MPs have already had two opportunities to avoid a no-deal Brexit.
Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
MPs are really going for hyperbolic statements at the moment aren't they.
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.
The date will change to June
That substantial enough for the Speaker?
I expect so, he makes it up as he goes along, he will then allow the Kyle, Letwin, Boles amendments
If I want to launch a legal challenge to Theresa May's ability to use Royal Prerogative to extend or revoke Article 50 (Gina Miller style), How do I go about it? Can anyone recommend a good QC to approach?
Looking at the Miller decision the judges said:
"the EU Treaties not only concern the international relations of the United Kingdom, they are a source of domestic law, and they are a source of domestic legal rights many of which are inextricably linked with domestic law from other sources. Accordingly, the Royal prerogative to make and unmake treaties, which operates wholly on the international plane, cannot be exercised in relation to the EU Treaties, at least in the absence of domestic sanction in appropriate statutory form."
I think this (and other parts of the judgement) clearly apply to an extension under Article 50 (3) which has profound implications for rights and UK law - for example next Saturday, UK citizens would still be subject to a European Arrest Warrant because of this exercise of prerogative.
The European Withdrawal Act provides a mechanism for the Minister to change the exit date, but does not provide the "unequivocal" authority to do so that the judges in the Miller case said was needed to notify for withdrawal under Article 50.
If the European Withdrawal (Notification) Act was needed to trigger Article 50 (2), I don't see why a similar Act isn't needed for Theresa May to notify the EU under Article 50 (3) which has similarly profound legal consequences.
If you really must have a silk, Jo Maugham at Devereux has Brexit history (wins in Wightman and I think he had at least a hand in Miller, though I imagine his clerk will tell you his diary's full) and so does Jessica Simor (although she keeps getting beat, most convincingly in Wilson). If you're happy to engage a junior for an op, I read a blog by Rose Slowe at Foundry Chambers on similar lines to your argument today, so that's also an option.
MPs want to avoid a No-deal Brexit by... not voting for the deal?
Seriously?
Sunil, if I started describing the stupidity, malevolence, or narcissism of our current MPs in the words I thought best expressed them, OGH would ban me. I didn't know it was possible to feel such contempt for MPs.
Some of have been saying for months that May's strategy of running down the clock was utterly reckless and doomed to fail. After spending that time making excuse after excuse for her, making smug comments about how MPs are bound to give into her blackmail (usually described as "minds being focussed"), her cheerleaders have now decided not to show a moment's humility or reflection, and instead immediately pivoted to "it's all the MPs' fault!" Incredible.
Except that it's not her that has been running down the clock. She wanted the EU's deal (often wrong called her deal) signed off in November or December, which would have given plenty of time.
She can want whatever she likes. I seem to remember an election where she wanted to win a big majority. What I'm talking about is her strategy for achieving what she wants. And her strategy has been to spend most of a year asking the EU for the same thing over and over again, giving up, then spending another 5 months asking parliament for the same thing over and over again, then giving up again and blaming everyone but herself.
Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
Yep. And Tory Lee also very critical. May appears to have burned her bridges.
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.
The date will change to June
Changing the date doesn't make it any different.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.
It may get through if Letwin and Cooper and Boles can amemd the political declaration to Single Market and Customs Union BINO
How many times? In a negotiation, one party does not get to unilaterally rewrite part of an agreement and sign it off.
Why do people in this country, whether Remain or Leave, laity or MPs, find this so hard to understand?
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.
I am sure that Bercow can argue that the last few days have created a material change of circumstance if it's the only way to give the Commons a chance to vote for an alternative to no deal.
Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
MPs are really going for hyperbolic statements at the moment aren't they.
Well they are of course the ones that have suffered the most over Brexit. They are the real victims here. I hope one day songs will be sung of their selfless heroism
Some of have been saying for months that May's strategy of running down the clock was utterly reckless and doomed to fail. After spending that time making excuse after excuse for her, making smug comments about how MPs are bound to give into her blackmail (usually described as "minds being focussed"), her cheerleaders have now decided not to show a moment's humility or reflection, and instead immediately pivoted to "it's all the MPs' fault!" Incredible.
Except that it's not her that has been running down the clock. She wanted the EU's deal (often wrong called her deal) signed off in November or December, which would have given plenty of time.
She can want whatever she likes. I seem to remember an election where she wanted to win a big majority. What I'm talking about is her strategy for achieving what she wants. And her strategy has been to spend most of a year asking the EU for the same thing over and over again, giving up, then spending another 5 months asking parliament for the same thing over and over again, then giving up again and blaming everyone but herself.
Her strategy has been to present MPs with the available options: Revoke/Referendum, the deal which the EU are prepared to agree to and which is non-negotiable now, or crashing out with no deal. You can criticise her tin ear and her lack of empathy, but it's impossible to criticise her logic. Those are the options.
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.
They've twice voted her deal down by record breaking margins. A bit of self reflection from her would go a long way, rather than turning against the people she needs.
Sure, she's useless at stroking their childish egos. But so what? This is about the future of the country, not the amour-propre of MPs. Or at least it should be.
To be honest I think this is a pretty basic leadership skills here. Charm people, create a few power blocks of your own, make it possible for your opponents to climb down at the last minute. A last minute Dead vs No Deal vote should be an easy win for May, apart from the ERG & DUP, everyone is going to be looking for a reason to vote for her deal. She's made that impossible for a lot of people, probably too many.
Oh sure. In fact I commented on the morning after the disastrous 2017 election that she was completely unsuited to the wheedling and cajoling needed for a hung parliament. But so what? MPs are meant to be grown-ups looking after the interests of the country, not children who need to be soothed and coaxed into eating their greens.
Right, it's not Theresa May's fault that the Commons has allowed her to be PM for nearly three years.
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.
They've twice voted her deal down by record breaking margins. A bit of self reflection from her would go a long way, rather than turning against the people she needs.
Sure, she's useless at stroking their childish egos. But so what? This is about the future of the country, not the amour-propre of MPs. Or at least it should be.
To be honest I think this is a pretty basic leadership skills here. Charm people, create a few power blocks of your own, make it possible for your opponents to climb down at the last minute. A last minute Dead vs No Deal vote should be an easy win for May, apart from the ERG & DUP, everyone is going to be looking for a reason to vote for her deal. She's made that impossible for a lot of people, probably too many.
Oh sure. In fact I commented on the morning after the disastrous 2017 election that she was completely unsuited to the wheedling and cajoling needed for a hung parliament. But so what? MPs are meant to be grown-ups looking after the interests of the country, not children who need to be soothed and coaxed into eating their greens.
Right, it's not Theresa May's fault that the Commons has allowed her to be PM for nearly three years.
Well, quite. If a majority had agreed that someone else could do a better job they could have chosen someone else. The facts would remain the same, of course.
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
Big G is supporting the deal. Under no logic (that I'm aware of) can supporting the deal be described as supporting no deal.
An extension. I would have thought this needs full legislation as there is already an exit date on the Statute Book, with Royal Assent. If we deliver this on time, we will look back at this period and wonder what all the fuss was about.
A new survey on Europeans’ attitudes towards technology found that a quarter of people would prefer it if policy decisions were made by artificial intelligence instead of politicians.
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?
No. Labour will not support any non-Labour PM, and vice versa for the Tories.
Some of have been saying for months that May's strategy of running down the clock was utterly reckless and doomed to fail. After spending that time making excuse after excuse for her, making smug comments about how MPs are bound to give into her blackmail (usually described as "minds being focussed"), her cheerleaders have now decided not to show a moment's humility or reflection, and instead immediately pivoted to "it's all the MPs' fault!" Incredible.
Except that it's not her that has been running down the clock. She wanted the EU's deal (often wrong called her deal) signed off in November or December, which would have given plenty of time.
She can want whatever she likes. I seem to remember an election where she wanted to win a big majority. What I'm talking about is her strategy for achieving what she wants. And her strategy has been to spend most of a year asking the EU for the same thing over and over again, giving up, then spending another 5 months asking parliament for the same thing over and over again, then giving up again and blaming everyone but herself.
Her strategy has been to present MPs with the available options: Revoke/Referendum, the deal which the EU are prepared to agree to and which is non-negotiable now, or crashing out with no deal. You can criticise her tin ear and her lack of empathy, but it's impossible to criticise her logic. Those are the options.
It's non-negotiable now? And why is that? Do you think it might have something to do with somebody running down the clock?
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
Big G is supporting the deal. Under no logic (that I'm aware of) can supporting the deal be described as supporting no deal.
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?
No. Her majority is too small to allow her to be party leader even if the majority of party members could stomach her, which they can't. The members won't stand for being locked out of choosing the leader again.
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?
No. Labour will not support any non-Labour PM, and vice versa for the Tories.
And in any case it would not change the Brexit Parliamentary arithmetic. The EU will only give an extension if they are convinced that the UK has a clear plan for the future and no change of PM will result in that (in the short term).
As Corbyn demonstrated today that he is more concerned with not being in the same room as Chuka Umunna than he is with the future of the UK, I don’t see this getting very far.
Some of have been saying for months that May's strategy of running down the clock was utterly reckless and doomed to fail. After spending that time making excuse after excuse for her, making smug comments about how MPs are bound to give into her blackmail (usually described as "minds being focussed"), her cheerleaders have now decided not to show a moment's humility or reflection, and instead immediately pivoted to "it's all the MPs' fault!" Incredible.
Except that it's not her that has been running down the clock. She wanted the EU's deal (often wrong called her deal) signed off in November or December, which would have given plenty of time.
She can want whatever she likes. I seem to remember an election where she wanted to win a big majority. What I'm talking about is her strategy for achieving what she wants. And her strategy has been to spend most of a year asking the EU for the same thing over and over again, giving up, then spending another 5 months asking parliament for the same thing over and over again, then giving up again and blaming everyone but herself.
Her strategy has been to present MPs with the available options: Revoke/Referendum, the deal which the EU are prepared to agree to and which is non-negotiable now, or crashing out with no deal. You can criticise her tin ear and her lack of empathy, but it's impossible to criticise her logic. Those are the options.
It's non-negotiable now? And why is that? Do you think it might have something to do with somebody running down the clock?
No. The EU have been saying it's non-negotiable since November. Of course the political declaration can be changed, now or in the future. If MPs want that, that's easy. They just need to ratify the current deal first.
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?
No. Labour will not support any non-Labour PM, and vice versa for the Tories.
They supported Churchill. Perhaps Ken Clarke as the only Tory who voted against Article 50 is the person we need to lead a temporary government of national unity.
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
In all fairness, the Corbynator is probably right in this case. Stopped clock syndrome, certainly. But right nevertheless.
He’s right about the denial but he is wrong about another deal. There is no other deal. It’s this deal or no deal unless the government completely collapses and we revoke. Pretending that there is another deal is even more delusional than May.
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.
The date will change to June
Changing the date doesn't make it any different.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.
It may get through if Letwin and Cooper and Boles can amemd the political declaration to Single Market and Customs Union BINO
How many times? In a negotiation, one party does not get to unilaterally rewrite part of an agreement and sign it off.
Why do people in this country, whether Remain or Leave, laity or MPs, find this so hard to understand?
The Agreement does not need to be changed, all that needs changing is the political declaration on the future relationship, then the Agreement can be passed in full and without one letter changed.
The political declaration is NOT part of the Withdrawal Agreement
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
Big G is supporting the deal. Under no logic (that I'm aware of) can supporting the deal be described as supporting no deal.
It can if her deal is evidently unavailable and by supporting it you block other options. It’s like wanting to marry Liz Taylor, being turned down twice and claiming wanting to marry Liz Taylor is enough to stop you being single. When all you have to do is forget Liz and go out with someone else.
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.
The date will change to June
Changing the date doesn't make it any different.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.
It may get through if Letwin and Cooper and Boles can amemd the political declaration to Single Market and Customs Union BINO
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?
No. Labour will not support any non-Labour PM, and vice versa for the Tories.
It could be done as a short term 'one-job' government headed by someone not in the running for future PM, like Ken Clarke. But I agree it's asking a lot from MPs who are unlikely to rise to the occasion.
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.
The date will change to June
Changing the date doesn't make it any different.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.
It may get through if Letwin and Cooper and Boles can amemd the political declaration to Single Market and Customs Union BINO
How many times? In a negotiation, one party does not get to unilaterally rewrite part of an agreement and sign it off.
Why do people in this country, whether Remain or Leave, laity or MPs, find this so hard to understand?
The Agreement does not need to be changed, all that needs changing is the political declaration on the future relationship, then the Agreement can be passed in full and without one letter changed.
The political declaration is NOT part of the Withdrawal Agreement
It still requires mutual agreement with the EU and needs to be negotiated, even if it's something that can be done relatively quickly.
The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
There isn't any deal Corbyn would have supported - for him it's about bringing down the government, nothing to do with the substance. See his reaction to Umunna today, or his response to May's previous approaches (sending her a signed copy of the Labour manifesto).
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?
No. Labour will not support any non-Labour PM, and vice versa for the Tories.
They supported Churchill. Perhaps Ken Clarke as the only Tory who voted against Article 50 is the person we need to lead a temporary government of national unity.
I agree that Kenny Clarke should be installed immediately as PM in a Gnu.
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
Major flaws? Such as...?
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
Big G is supporting the deal. Under no logic (that I'm aware of) can supporting the deal be described as supporting no deal.
It can if her deal is evidently unavailable and by supporting it you block other options. It’s like wanting to marry Liz Taylor, being turned down twice and claiming wanting to marry Liz Taylor is enough to stop you being single. When all you have to do is forget Liz and go out with someone else.
The EU made it clear in November it was their deal (note: THEIR deal, not May's), or no deal.
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
What is it that you find so objectionable in the WA?
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
What is it that you find so objectionable in the WA?
It makes me worse off and gives me less self determination that remaining in the EU. I would not sign a contract without a unilateral exit clause.
The petition (on the website) with the most signatures is "Ban all ISIS members from returning to UK" which has 582,529 signatures. That's the bar for the revoke petition.
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
Major flaws? Such as...?
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.
The date will change to June
Changing the date doesn't make it any different.
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.
It may get through if Letwin and Cooper and Boles can amemd the political declaration to Single Market and Customs Union BINO
How many times? In a negotiation, one party does not get to unilaterally rewrite part of an agreement and sign it off.
Why do people in this country, whether Remain or Leave, laity or MPs, find this so hard to understand?
The Agreement does not need to be changed, all that needs changing is the political declaration on the future relationship, then the Agreement can be passed in full and without one letter changed.
The political declaration is NOT part of the Withdrawal Agreement
It still requires mutual agreement with the EU and needs to be negotiated, even if it's something that can be done relatively quickly.
As long as the main Withdrawal Agreement is passed the political declaration detail can easily be kicked into the future relationship talks and given the amendment would be for SM and Customs Union BINO as the future relationship the EU would happily agree as it would be less Brexity a future relationship than May's proposed future relationship
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
Major flaws? Such as...?
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?
My deal would have replaced the bespoke backstop with a clause rejoining after two years if we failed to find a trade deal.
Conservative Leadership Race started in earnest this afternoon.
Just wandering through Collonades in House of Commons this afternoon talking to Political Editor of a National Broadsheet when he points out a 'wealthy businessman' steaming past as if he owns the place with a cluster of cronys.
"That's Raab's money man" he says.
The starting gun has been fired.
#Classy.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Edit - of course, that's because EVERYONE is assuming TM will be gone by 30/6
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
Then it may hang on Kyle/Wilson passing
Kyle/Wilson is a dead duck now. There isn't time for a referendum before June 30, and even if there was, it's not clear that it would be acceptable to the EU to delay acceptance of the WA to be contingent on a referendum which would need enabling legislation passing through a parliament that seems constitutionally incapable of taking any positive decision.
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Sorry, Jonathan, but that bit about the backstop is complete tosh. In the (temporary) backstop we'd be out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the political structures, out of the EU security structures, out of the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in domestic law, out of the Single Market rules for services [unfortunately], completely out of the Freedom of Movement directive - and we wouldn't have to pay a centime in fees. (We used to call this the 'common market' in the old days).
Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for thhe has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
Major flaws? Such as...?
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?
My deal would have replaced the bespoke backstop with a clause rejoining after two years if we failed to find a trade deal.
And why would they do a deal in those circumstances?
Conservative Leadership Race started in earnest this afternoon.
Just wandering through Collonades in House of Commons this afternoon talking to Political Editor of a National Broadsheet when he points out a 'wealthy businessman' steaming past as if he owns the place with a cluster of cronys.
"That's Raab's money man" he says.
The starting gun has been fired.
#Classy.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Edit - of course, that's because EVERYONE is assuming TM will be gone by 30/6
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Sorry, Jonathan, but that bit about the backstop is complete tosh. In the (temporary) backstop we'd be out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the political structures, out of the EU security structures, out of the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in domestic law, out of the Single Market rules for services [unfortunately], completely out of the Freedom of Movement directive - and we wouldn't have to pay a centime in fees. (We used to call this the 'common market' in the old days).
Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.
It’s not tosh. In the EU we have influence on the regulations the still apply under the backstop. If the EU changed policy we have no say. We can’t even trigger A50 and leave to WTO if we really disagree.
As Corbyn demonstrated today that he is more concerned with not being in the same room as Chuka Umunna than he is with the future of the UK, I don’t see this getting very far.
There is no time for another deal - he of course knows this.
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makes no deal more likely. This is not ad hom, it’s not personal, I am simply challenging your view. This is too important to simply put it down to different opinions. Her brinkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
Major flaws? Such as...?
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?
My deal would have replaced the bespoke backstop with a clause rejoining after two years if we failed to find a trade deal.
And why would they do a deal in those circumstances?
Because, A50 to WTO with a two year lead time to prepare would be available if things completely broke down. An exit clause not available in the backstop.
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.
Would not eg Amber Rudd, be able to do so?
No. Labour will not support any non-Labour PM, and vice versa for the Tories.
It could be done as a short term 'one-job' government headed by someone not in the running for future PM, like Ken Clarke. But I agree it's asking a lot from MPs who are unlikely to rise to the occasion.
I agree Ken Clarke. It has to be someone whose has nothing to gain personally or give party advantage (rules out Vince)
The PM got all over the 10pm news tonight giving a speech attacking MPs for faffing about. The speech apparently resonated with the non-politico public and had us scratching our heads and MPs hanging theirs.
In completely unrelated news, next election taking place in May 2019 is 3.5 and shortening.
The advice to go to bed is sound. But I think it is remarkable that in the time we have been pontificating on here a quarter of a million votes have been cast for an option that nobody was talking about a fortnight ago. Something to ponder.
Peston gives soft Brexit most support in the Commons over EUref2, the Deal or No Deal but soft Brexit needs Remainers to swing behind it for a majority
The PM got all over the 10pm news tonight giving a speech attacking MPs for faffing about. The speech apparently resonated with the non-politico public and had us scratching our heads and MPs hanging theirs.
In completely unrelated news, next election taking place in May 2019 is 3.5 and shortening.
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Sorry, Jonathan, but that bit about the backstop is complete tosh. In the (temporary) backstop we'd be out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the political structures, out of the EU security structures, out of the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in domestic law, out of the Single Market rules for services [unfortunately], completely out of the Freedom of Movement directive - and we wouldn't have to pay a centime in fees. (We used to call this the 'common market' in the old days).
Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.
It’s not tosh. In the EU we have influence on the regulations the still apply under the backstop. If the EU changed policy we have no say. We can’t even trigger A50 and leave to WTO if we really disagree.
The backstop is calculated risk not worth taking.
Of course we'd have no say in product regulations. That's true of all forms of Brexit, including No Deal, or an EEA-style deal, or of course Labour's mythical unicorn-Brexit. Product regulations are set by the big boys (and sometimes at international levels above the EU). Does it matter particularly? No manufacturer is going to make special non-EU compliant variants just for us, so it's academic.
No. But with Raab breaking cover so obviously and ostentatiously, the rest of the Grand National field will be jostling for position. The first to twelve quality endorsements will have the 'mo'.
And, almost as if it was planned, Govey endorses Truss this evening on SkyNews [Beth Rigby] with the classic line 'I agree with Liz' as the Pizza Plotters leave No 10. WIth today's 'The Sun Says' throwing its weight enthusiastically behind her too.
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Sorry, Jonathan, but that bit about the backstop is complete tosh. In the (temporary) backstop we'd be out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the political structures, out of the EU security structures, out of the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in domestic law, out of the Single Market rules for services [unfortunately], completely out of the Freedom of Movement directive - and we wouldn't have to pay a centime in fees. (We used to call this the 'common market' in the old days).
Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.
It’s not tosh. In the EU we have influence on the regulations the still apply under the backstop. If the EU changed policy we have no say. We can’t even trigger A50 and leave to WTO if we really disagree.
The backstop is calculated risk not worth taking.
Of course we'd have no say in product regulations. That's true of all forms of Brexit, including No Deal, and of course including Labour's mythical unicorn-Brexit. Product regulations are set by the big boys (and sometimes at international levels above the EU). Does it matter particularly? No manufacturer is going to make special non-EU compliant variants just for us, so it's academic.
It may seems a technicality to you, but being at the mercy of an as yet unelected EU parliament and comisssion in which we have no say is not a risk worth taking IMO.
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
Major flaws? Such as...?
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?
My deal would have replaced the bespoke backstop with a clause rejoining after two years if we failed to find a trade deal.
And why would they do a deal in those circumstances?
Because, A50 to WTO with a two year lead time to prepare would be available if things completely broke down. An exit clause not available in the backstop.
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Sorry, Jonathan, but that bit about the backstop is complete tosh. In the (temporary) backstop we'd be out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the political structures, out of the EU security structures, out of the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in domestic law, out of the Single Market rules for services [unfortunately], completely out of the Freedom of Movement directive - and we wouldn't have to pay a centime in fees. (We used to call this the 'common market' in the old days).
Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.
It’s not tosh. In the EU we have influence on the regulations the still apply under the backstop. If the EU changed policy we have no say. We can’t even trigger A50 and leave to WTO if we really disagree.
The backstop is calculated risk not worth taking.
Of course we'd have no say in product regulations. That's true of all forms of Brexit, including No Deal, and of course including Labour's mythical unicorn-Brexit. Product regulations are set by the big boys (and sometimes at international levels above the EU). Does it matter particularly? No manufacturer is going to make special non-EU compliant variants just for us, so it's academic.
It may seems a technicality to you, but being at the mercy of an as yet unelected EU parliament and comisssion in which we have no say is not a risk worth taking IMO.
Yet you're prepared to take it if Corbyn proposes it?
Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.
No I do not
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow up
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today You support her.
Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personal
You put your name to hers time and time again. May and your continued support for her makkmanship is dangerous. You are wrong to support that.
I support her deal as many others do and I am not going to apologise or change my mind
I get it now. You are a kindred spirit with May. Nothing has changed for you. Through backing her obstinate nature you create the conditions you claim to oppose. The deal lost twice due to major flaws. It will probably lose again and we will no deal due to a lack of imagination. Avoidable and tragic.
Major flaws? Such as...?
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Okay, you're demanding she revoke A50, but how, and why, should she?
My deal would have replaced the bespoke backstop with a clause rejoining after two years if we failed to find a trade deal.
And why would they do a deal in those circumstances?
Because, A50 to WTO with a two year lead time to prepare would be available if things completely broke down. An exit clause not available in the backstop.
Making us economically worse off and under the backstop having less self determination than remaining in the EU.
Sorry, Jonathan, but that bit about the backstop is complete tosh. In the (temporary) backstop we'd be out of the CAP, out of the CFP, out of the political structures, out of the EU security structures, out of the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ in domestic law, out of the Single Market rules for services [unfortunately], completely out of the Freedom of Movement directive - and we wouldn't have to pay a centime in fees. (We used to call this the 'common market' in the old days).
Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.
It’s not tosh. In the EU we have influence on the regulations the still apply under the backstop. If the EU changed policy we have no say. We can’t even trigger A50 and leave to WTO if we really disagree.
The backstop is calculated risk not worth taking.
Of course we'd have no say in product regulations. That's true of all forms of Brexit, including No Deal, and of course including Labour's mythical unicorn-Brexit. Product regulations are set by the big boys (and sometimes at international levels above the EU). Does it matter particularly? No manufacturer is going to make special non-EU compliant variants just for us, so it's academic.
It may seems a technicality to you, but being at the mercy of an as yet unelected EU parliament and comisssion in which we have no say is not a risk worth taking IMO.
Yet you're prepared to take it if Corbyn proposes it?
Comments
May is not good at wooing, is she!
But on this I agree with Big G, it will come back because it has to, even if that is to prove once and for all it won't get through.
886 signatures in the last hour"
I'm as much an animal lover as anyone else, but the word "priorities" does come to mind when I see that listed as the second most popular.
Why do people in this country, whether Remain or Leave, laity or MPs, find this so hard to understand?
Not 'alf!
No deal 369,417
Revoke 248,641
Deal 48
Guess which option the friendless Prime Minister is still pushing?
The political declaration is NOT part of the Withdrawal Agreement
One of the 48
Bring on Kenny C.
Bring on the Gnu.
You’re better off on a gnu.
If they behaved like adults it would not be needed
Anyway, time to wish everyone a good night's rest
Good night folks
Online polls/petitions are a complete joke.
Just wandering through Collonades in House of Commons this afternoon talking to Political Editor of a National Broadsheet when he points out a 'wealthy businessman' steaming past as if he owns the place with a cluster of cronys.
"That's Raab's money man" he says.
The starting gun has been fired.
#Classy.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Edit - of course, that's because EVERYONE is assuming TM will be gone by 30/6
Of course in any form of Brexit we'll be economically worse off than if we'd Remained, but that's what voters voted for, having been fully informed of the likelihood. Anyway, compared with a Corbyn government, an orderly transition to the status envisioned in the political declaration would be a minor hit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/20/german-alarm-grows-eus-dangerous-ultimatum-terms-britain/
The backstop is calculated risk not worth taking.
In completely unrelated news, next election taking place in May 2019 is 3.5 and shortening.
And, almost as if it was planned, Govey endorses Truss this evening on SkyNews [Beth Rigby] with the classic line 'I agree with Liz' as the Pizza Plotters leave No 10. WIth today's 'The Sun Says' throwing its weight enthusiastically behind her too.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot