Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A no deal Brexit on March 29th move from a 12% chance to 22% i

124

Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    When will it overtake 17.4 million?
    That depends on how fast the 17.4 million total is coming down.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    When will it overtake 17.4 million?
    Try before 6am - it's now at 369,861
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Sandpit said:

    I’m not saying that trust in government is low and falling, but...

    Poll: 25% of European voters would trust AI more than human politicians to make policy decisions.

    https://qz.com/1576057/could-ai-make-better-policy-than-politicians/
    https://politics.slashdot.org/story/19/03/20/207206/many-people-think-ai-could-make-better-policy-decisions-than-politicians

    As we daily hear how uniquely rubbish the UK government is - worth reflecting that that 'Trust AI to make important decisions' in the UK (31%) is in line with Germany (31%), Italy (30%) and Ireland (29%), with the Spanish (26%), French (25%) and Portuguese (19%) less trusting and the Dutch (43%) very much more so.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    I reckon there's value on Theresa May surviving a bit longer, maybe to the end of the year. I just laid her being gone by end March at 13 on bf. If we get no deal, she will feel it's her duty to soldier on for at least the immediate disruption.

    I am not so sure. Every MP I have heard since is seething; they all know she has gone out of her way to sideline Parliament and keep them out of the process (even her ministers and former ministers know that) and grandstanding like this with the public attempting to dump the blame on MPs for her own ineptitude has gone down appallingly. And even her friends can see that she has lied repeatedly, and failed on her own terms. Her credibility in parliament is at rock bottom.
    Her credibility is not the main point at the present time. If they dont like the choices she has presented then they can bloody well do something about it.

    If the choices are not as she says they can pick something else.

    If they try but find she is right about the choices then moaning about those choices is pointless, moaning about her is pointless. They would still need to decide which of several options they dont like they must choose.

    It is clear objection to the deal is hardening as Labour MPs, who are the only ones with the numbers to save it, are by their words tonight essentially committing to oppose it. How could they now justify voting for it, when they are busy being offended at the way May frames the choice?

    That being so they all have no excuses for not definitively choosing something else at the earliest opportunity.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    This morning needs some Tory resignations.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Elite neoliberal biscuits, if you must know.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Blair’s political error on Iraq was not to recognise his own policy failure. When the United Nations did not back military action, he should have accepted it. He should have told the public that he had been willing to try everything to win support for invasion, but that Britain could not now proceed. He would have been right and wildly popular. Instead, from that moment to this, he was pigeonholed as delusional.

    May’s political mistake on Brexit is very similar. When she applied for an article 50 extension this week, she should have recognised the verdict. The old policy is dead. Even now, she could still turn to the country and remind us that she has done everything she conceivably could to get the Brexit she preferred. With regret, she could say, we must now go in a different direction, perhaps leaving the EU but preserving the benefits from the single market and customs alignment. It wouldn’t please all the marchers any more than it would persuade the European Research Group. But it would be pretty popular, all the same.

    The overarching question that faces British politics is not whether May’s Brexit policy will succeed – because it has failed. Until Wednesday, the succession was a secondary issue, because the arithmetic in the House of Commons will not change. Now, though, parliament is faced by both questions. The country needs a new Brexit policy, and it may soon need a new leader to try to implement it.


    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/20/uk-politicians-ignore-mass-public-protests-peril-theresa-may-tony-blair
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    Elite neoliberal biscuits, if you must know.
    Thank God - I thought they might be crackers, masquerading under a posh name......
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    When will it overtake 17.4 million?
    Try before 6am - it's now at 369,861
    Leave without a deal petition 369941 https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/229963
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The identity of the cheese is far more consequential.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    Before breakfast. 394 000 for Revoke now...
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    It’s not a dick measuring exercise
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219
    edited March 2019

    While not in the Howe class an impassioned speech from Grieve:

    https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1108443627997577217

    He's part of the reason for this mess in the first place
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    AndyJS said:

    Are 5,000 people an hour really signing an online petition in the middle of the night?

    https://petition.parliament.uk

    I don't see why not, firstly there are British people all over the world on different timezones, and secondly even without insomnia there's always somebody awake if you combine the early-risers and the night owls. I think evolution sets it up that way so there's somebody to keep an eye out for predators.
    Shift workers too, of course.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    Elite neoliberal biscuits, if you must know.
    Thank God - I thought they might be crackers, masquerading under a posh name......
    Brie reasonable! May is stuck between a Roquefort and a hard place.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Morning all.

    400 000.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    There's a pro no deal petition with nearly 370,000 signatures. The revoke petition has some way to go.

    Well its at 256,000 signatures now, so about 2/3 of the way there. And it was putting on about 1,000 per minute earlier.
    I wish it the best, but people are heading to bed now and it might not be all over Twitter by the morning.
    The Revoke Article 50 petition overtook the no deal petition at about 5:30 this morning.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    It’s not a dick measuring exercise
    Quantity has a quality all of its own. If it becomes the most signed petition that means something, however minor in the scheme of things.

    I see the Prime Minister's deal received an extra signature overnight, taking it to 49.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Elite neoliberal biscuits, if you must know.
    So not Jaffa Cakes right?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    And the rate of signing on the Revoke Article 50 petition is back up to the 1,000+ per minute it was managing yesterday. At this rate it will hit a million sometime this evening.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    It’s not a dick measuring exercise
    Quantity has a quality all of its own. If it becomes the most signed petition that means something, however minor in the scheme of things.
    It does, but given that May ignored the biggest parliamentary defeat ever as if nothing had happened, the chance she’ll pay any attention to an online petition tends to 0. It’s simply therapeutic for us Remainers.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    It’s not a dick measuring exercise
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWaMIpSIOVw
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    bunnco said:


    Leaders have to be comfortable in their own skin and do well on TV. You need to view all leadership candidates through that prism.

    That's right. But that's not enough in itself. It's about the Person & Personality but it has to be about the Politics/Political Vision and the Proposition.

    And in a crowded field, a successful candidate needs a distinctive proposition, a USP - Unique Selling Proposition. Which the print media can understand and get behind.

    My comments below re 'The Sun Says' refer. A proposition that isn't 'virtue signalling and hectoring us over what we eat or throw away' can give the comfort in their own skin and do well on TV.

    The punters want substance as well as media performability.

    Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
    Greetings Bunnco! long time no hear.

    The flaw is that Truss is a gaffe prone half wit, though that would still be a step up from May.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Elite neoliberal biscuits, if you must know.
    So not Jaffa Cakes right?
    Depends on whether any LibDem Orange Bookers join (aren't they extinct? - ed.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    Foxy said:

    Elite neoliberal biscuits, if you must know.
    Thank God - I thought they might be crackers, masquerading under a posh name......
    Brie reasonable! May is stuck between a Roquefort and a hard place.
    Edam right.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684

    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    It’s not a dick measuring exercise
    Quantity has a quality all of its own. If it becomes the most signed petition that means something, however minor in the scheme of things.
    It does, but given that May ignored the biggest parliamentary defeat ever as if nothing had happened, the chance she’ll pay any attention to an online petition tends to 0. It’s simply therapeutic for us Remainers.
    But MPs will, and they’re the ones that can remove her.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited March 2019

    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    It’s not a dick measuring exercise
    Quantity has a quality all of its own. If it becomes the most signed petition that means something, however minor in the scheme of things.
    It does, but given that May ignored the biggest parliamentary defeat ever as if nothing had happened, the chance she’ll pay any attention to an online petition tends to 0. It’s simply therapeutic for us Remainers.
    Insofar as it will have any effect it would be to stiffen the resolve of weak-willed MPs who are already sympathetic.

    Edit: A not very complicated script could be written that would email each MP when the number of signatures for the revoke petition exceeded the number for the no deal petition. And then when it reaches 50% more, 100%, etc. Alas, I have to document the code for a black box today.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,219

    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    It’s not a dick measuring exercise
    Quantity has a quality all of its own. If it becomes the most signed petition that means something, however minor in the scheme of things.

    I see the Prime Minister's deal received an extra signature overnight, taking it to 49.
    The signers of the petition of the PMs deal are always right though ;)
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited March 2019

    There's a pro no deal petition with nearly 370,000 signatures. The revoke petition has some way to go.

    Well its at 256,000 signatures now, so about 2/3 of the way there. And it was putting on about 1,000 per minute earlier.
    I wish it the best, but people are heading to bed now and it might not be all over Twitter by the morning.
    The Revoke Article 50 petition overtook the no deal petition at about 5:30 this morning.
    About 5:55 actually

    And currently at 7am 20 people a second are signing it...
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    It’s not a dick measuring exercise
    Quantity has a quality all of its own. If it becomes the most signed petition that means something, however minor in the scheme of things.
    It does, but given that May ignored the biggest parliamentary defeat ever as if nothing had happened, the chance she’ll pay any attention to an online petition tends to 0. It’s simply therapeutic for us Remainers.
    Therapy for remainers is no small thing.

    But it is a demonstration of how Brexit is being undemocratically imposed against the will of the people, so will be a very helpful card for the rejoin campaign down the road.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    Scott_P said:
    The Guardian have a savage view on a Tory PM?

    Well, knock me down with a feather.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    BREAKING: Brexit: Toilet paper maker stockpiles in a case of no-deal

    https://bbc.in/2Fpr8nV
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    And the rate of signing on the Revoke Article 50 petition is back up to the 1,000+ per minute it was managing yesterday. At this rate it will hit a million sometime this evening.

    So what?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Scott_P said:
    The Guardian have a savage view on a Tory PM?

    Well, knock me down with a feather.
    Nevertheless she has no benenfit of the doubt left and is surely going to be defeated now
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    IanB2 said:

    BREAKING: Brexit: Toilet paper maker stockpiles in a case of no-deal

    https://bbc.in/2Fpr8nV

    I reckon it is just increased demand from the Cabinet.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    It’s not a dick measuring exercise
    Quantity has a quality all of its own. If it becomes the most signed petition that means something, however minor in the scheme of things.

    I see the Prime Minister's deal received an extra signature overnight, taking it to 49.
    ''twas from a PB'er..keep up!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    It’s not a dick measuring exercise
    It does seem to be for many.

    This is why May’s Deal will never pass: we’re moving to a straight No Deal v. Revoke fight.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    I like this map.
    https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=241584

    Say what you like about Heidi Allen but she represents her voters.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Guardian have a savage view on a Tory PM?

    Well, knock me down with a feather.
    Nevertheless she has no benenfit of the doubt left and is surely going to be defeated now
    I’ve moved my money to rebacking No Deal this morning.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    eek said:

    There's a pro no deal petition with nearly 370,000 signatures. The revoke petition has some way to go.

    Well its at 256,000 signatures now, so about 2/3 of the way there. And it was putting on about 1,000 per minute earlier.
    I wish it the best, but people are heading to bed now and it might not be all over Twitter by the morning.
    The Revoke Article 50 petition overtook the no deal petition at about 5:30 this morning.
    About 5:55 actually

    And currently at 7am 20 people a second are signing it...
    over 423 000 now. Should hit half a million before I head off for work.

    Or 49 in @Casino_Royale counting. :)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:
    I’d be interested in a transcript of that discussion

    It seems unlikely - I suspect she may be making it up / exaggerating for effect
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    We are at the point where in other countries the military would be taking over or the people would be in the streets or both. We are a failing state bereft of leadership with no coherent, credible alternative available. The deceptions and delusions of Brexit have destroyed us.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    I like this map.
    https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=241584

    Say what you like about Heidi Allen but she represents her voters.

    Only 200 in Hartlepool.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,752

    And the rate of signing on the Revoke Article 50 petition is back up to the 1,000+ per minute it was managing yesterday. At this rate it will hit a million sometime this evening.

    Until recently, although I voted Remain and thought leaving was a stupid decision, I always thought it was right to honour the result of the referendum, provided we didn't leave without a deal.

    But what's happening now is plain ridiculous, so I've signed it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:
    I’d be interested in a transcript of that discussion

    It seems unlikely - I suspect she may be making it up / exaggerating for effect

    Why does it seem unlikely? If she has made it up her Tweet would be actionable.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Even French people who are completely agnostic about the Brexit project now feel utter incomprehension. No-one can make head or tail of what’s going on...we French do not understand the intricacies of UK parliamentary procedure, let alone the terrifying factions fighting for the soul (or the wine cellar, it sometimes seems to us) of the Tory Party, from the ERG to Olly Robbins’s briefs. But we know what a furious Englishman beating up an Austin 1800 with a branch looks like, and it’s not a pretty sight.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/20/french-feel-nothing-pity-basil-fawlty-brexit/
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    We are at the point where in other countries the military would be taking over or the people would be in the streets or both. We are a failing state bereft of leadership with no coherent, credible alternative available. The deceptions and delusions of Brexit have destroyed us.

    Im surprised youre still living here :-)
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    I like this map.
    https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=241584

    Say what you like about Heidi Allen but she represents her voters.

    The map is basically LD/TIG target seats at the forthcoming election...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    BREAKING: Brexit: Toilet paper maker stockpiles in a case of no-deal

    https://bbc.in/2Fpr8nV

    I reckon it is just increased demand from the Cabinet.

    Scott_P said:
    The Guardian have a savage view on a Tory PM?

    Well, knock me down with a feather.
    yet people pay to read it...
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    And the rate of signing on the Revoke Article 50 petition is back up to the 1,000+ per minute it was managing yesterday. At this rate it will hit a million sometime this evening.

    So what?
    It's a part of the public discussion of Brexit, and is pretty strong evidence that a lot more people find revoking appealing than no deal. It may be too late, and I think it probably is, but ultimately that has to factor into MPs voting behaviour. But if revocation doesn't happen it will certainly be very encouraging for the rejoin campaign which will no doubt be forming once we leave.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    edited March 2019

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Guardian have a savage view on a Tory PM?

    Well, knock me down with a feather.
    Nevertheless she has no benenfit of the doubt left and is surely going to be defeated now
    I’ve moved my money to rebacking No Deal this morning.
    No Deal would represent the most astonishing failure. We could have had that on Day 1 of 1001. And then spent a thousand days preparing. But when the only thing the politicians could agree on was that No Deal was an unimaginable, unmitigated disaster - to vote it down, and for it then to happen anyway - because they were too stupid to realise that they had already voted for it as the default setting.....

    The Student Anarchist within me does give a little "Yay!".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Good morning, everyone.

    I was watching Elementary last night (Pick, 10pm, Wednesdays) and, before that, winning magnificently at XCOM 2. I gather the statement was an utterly damp squib, just bleating for MPs to support her, yes?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    BREAKING: Brexit: Toilet paper maker stockpiles in a case of no-deal

    https://bbc.in/2Fpr8nV

    I reckon it is just increased demand from the Cabinet.
    PB's wordplay giocatori must be hungover this morning.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    It will cause cognitive dissonance for lefties though

    Thatcher or May?

    Which woman to they hate more?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Also interesting that most of the Irish border areas are like yeah whatever
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    And the rate of signing on the Revoke Article 50 petition is back up to the 1,000+ per minute it was managing yesterday. At this rate it will hit a million sometime this evening.

    So what?
    It's a part of the public discussion of Brexit, and is pretty strong evidence that a lot more people find revoking appealing than no deal. It may be too late, and I think it probably is, but ultimately that has to factor into MPs voting behaviour. But if revocation doesn't happen it will certainly be very encouraging for the rejoin campaign which will no doubt be forming once we leave.
    That’s a masterclass in confirmation bias.

    You want to revoke and, if we do Leave, rejoin in prompt order.

    There’s certainly a large constituency for that but don’t fall into a trap of thinking it’s where the centre of gravity of public opinion is.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Chris said:

    And the rate of signing on the Revoke Article 50 petition is back up to the 1,000+ per minute it was managing yesterday. At this rate it will hit a million sometime this evening.

    Until recently, although I voted Remain and thought leaving was a stupid decision, I always thought it was right to honour the result of the referendum, provided we didn't leave without a deal.

    But what's happening now is plain ridiculous, so I've signed it.
    I think that's a pretty common journey. In my case I was arguing for May's deal at a dinner party last November, and going on the march on Saturday with the people I was arguing against. When the history books get to be written I think the story that will emerge will be of a potential consensus for leaving being thrown away.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited March 2019

    Good morning, everyone.

    I was watching Elementary last night (Pick, 10pm, Wednesdays) and, before that, winning magnificently at XCOM 2. I gather the statement was an utterly damp squib, just bleating for MPs to support her, yes?

    Bleating is too kind. Sheep are cute. This was a particularly aggressive crow cawing to defend its territory despite the fact both its wings are broken. The overwhelming sense is please, someone, put it out of its misery.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503

    We are at the point where in other countries the military would be taking over or the people would be in the streets or both. We are a failing state bereft of leadership with no coherent, credible alternative available. The deceptions and delusions of Brexit have destroyed us.

    Calm down.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    SKY: ANALYSIS
    Theresa May turns offensive after charm fails: The charm falls very flat as Mrs May manages to offend the very people she needs to persuade to vote for her Brexit deal.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:
    That's angry, but when does it convert into actual resignation.
    I've never heard so many month of angry briefings, but she's still in place. Maybe last night was the last straw for them, but we'll have to see.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    To borrow from Alastair Meeks, have MPs reached the panic point or do they all still consider themselves the cleverest people the the room?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,503
    matt said:

    To borrow from Alastair Meeks, have MPs reached the panic point or do they all still consider themselves the cleverest people the the room?

    They all hate May and think they can get what they want by holding out, and then blaming her.

    It’s stupid, but that’s where we’re at.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Foxy said:

    Elite neoliberal biscuits, if you must know.
    Thank God - I thought they might be crackers, masquerading under a posh name......
    Brie reasonable! May is stuck between a Roquefort and a hard place.
    Edam right.
    Don’t Gouda him. I cammerbert any more of these puns.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    We are at the point where in other countries the military would be taking over or the people would be in the streets or both. We are a failing state bereft of leadership with no coherent, credible alternative available. The deceptions and delusions of Brexit have destroyed us.

    Calm down.

    I am very calm.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    Also interesting that most of the Irish border areas are like yeah whatever

    I suspect that many of those people in that area most bothered by the border are also people who do not recognise the legitimacy of the Westminster Parliament's jurisdiction over Northern Ireland, so they're hardly likely to sign a petition to it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Elite neoliberal biscuits, if you must know.
    Thank God - I thought they might be crackers, masquerading under a posh name......
    Brie reasonable! May is stuck between a Roquefort and a hard place.
    Edam right.
    Don’t Gouda him. I cammerbert any more of these puns.
    Paul Mason is just predjudiced against the Dolce latte life.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    And the rate of signing on the Revoke Article 50 petition is back up to the 1,000+ per minute it was managing yesterday. At this rate it will hit a million sometime this evening.

    So what?
    It's a part of the public discussion of Brexit, and is pretty strong evidence that a lot more people find revoking appealing than no deal. It may be too late, and I think it probably is, but ultimately that has to factor into MPs voting behaviour. But if revocation doesn't happen it will certainly be very encouraging for the rejoin campaign which will no doubt be forming once we leave.
    That’s a masterclass in confirmation bias.

    You want to revoke and, if we do Leave, rejoin in prompt order.

    There’s certainly a large constituency for that but don’t fall into a trap of thinking it’s where the centre of gravity of public opinion is.
    I don't know where the centre of gravity in public opinion is. But confirmation bias aside, we both know which direction it is travelling in.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    It’s not a dick measuring exercise
    It does seem to be for many.

    This is why May’s Deal will never pass: we’re moving to a straight No Deal v. Revoke fight.
    It's not a dick measuring exercise. Were this a project the options now are:-

    Scrap the project and start again
    or continue and see what happens..

    either way management is going to lose their jobs the question is do we adopt the sane approach or do we go all in...

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    We are at the point where in other countries the military would be taking over or the people would be in the streets or both. We are a failing state bereft of leadership with no coherent, credible alternative available. The deceptions and delusions of Brexit have destroyed us.

    Im surprised youre still living here :-)

    Unlike you, I have no easy way out. In all seriousness, though, if I were a younger man without the responsibilities I now have I’d definitely be looking to leave the UK. It’s certainly not a country I feel proud to be from these days and its prospects are poor.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:
    I’d be interested in a transcript of that discussion

    It seems unlikely - I suspect she may be making it up / exaggerating for effect

    Why does it seem unlikely? If she has made it up her Tweet would be actionable.

    Well presumably it was in the green room or equivalent. I suspect that he tried to continue the discussion from the sofa. But “abuse and intimidate” doesn’t seem realistic from an objective standpoint.

    I’m curious whether her threshold is.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Elite neoliberal biscuits, if you must know.
    Thank God - I thought they might be crackers, masquerading under a posh name......
    Brie reasonable! May is stuck between a Roquefort and a hard place.
    Edam right.
    Don’t Gouda him. I cammerbert any more of these puns.
    May for some extraordinary reason thinks victory for her deal is stilton.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    We are at the point where in other countries the military would be taking over or the people would be in the streets or both. We are a failing state bereft of leadership with no coherent, credible alternative available. The deceptions and delusions of Brexit have destroyed us.

    The fact that neither the army nor people are in the streets shows that we are not a failing state.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Good to hear Sir Oliver Letwin on R4 this morning. A reminder that there are still some decent parliamentarians motivated by a sense of duty to the country, and a consequent desire to find a workable compromise.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    matt said:

    To borrow from Alastair Meeks, have MPs reached the panic point or do they all still consider themselves the cleverest people the the room?

    There’s a fair amount more space for panicking yet. The weekend should be full of it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Chris said:

    And the rate of signing on the Revoke Article 50 petition is back up to the 1,000+ per minute it was managing yesterday. At this rate it will hit a million sometime this evening.

    Until recently, although I voted Remain and thought leaving was a stupid decision, I always thought it was right to honour the result of the referendum, provided we didn't leave without a deal.

    But what's happening now is plain ridiculous, so I've signed it.
    I think that's a pretty common journey. In my case I was arguing for May's deal at a dinner party last November, and going on the march on Saturday with the people I was arguing against. When the history books get to be written I think the story that will emerge will be of a potential consensus for leaving being thrown away.
    And the worst of it is that - even if by some miracle May does manage to bludgeon her deal through - there will be no goodwill or stable consensus for all the decisions that need to be taken thereafter, nor for the bigger task of fixing our future that lies ahead. May is focused entirely on getting through the next few days and thereafter we will once again be adrift.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    We are at the point where in other countries the military would be taking over or the people would be in the streets or both. We are a failing state bereft of leadership with no coherent, credible alternative available. The deceptions and delusions of Brexit have destroyed us.

    The fact that neither the army nor people are in the streets shows that we are not a failing state.
    I agree up to a point, but we're under no unexpected organisational or economic/administrative pressure yet. It's become a cliche, but we're now just coming up to a week away from such a test, if things continue in the same way.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,009
    kjohnw said:

    IanB2 said:

    kjohnw said:
    Revoke now 363,000 and should overhaul the no deal petition (369,000) before lunchtime.
    It’s not a dick measuring exercise
    ...especially if one is on the less well endowed side.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    edited March 2019
    Sean_F said:

    We are at the point where in other countries the military would be taking over or the people would be in the streets or both. We are a failing state bereft of leadership with no coherent, credible alternative available. The deceptions and delusions of Brexit have destroyed us.

    The fact that neither the army nor people are in the streets shows that we are not a failing state.
    The people will be on the streets on Saturday.

    The army is merely on standby:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46910535
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Scott_P said:
    There was one noteworthy thing from May's speech - apart from how dishonest and, literally irresponsible it was: she mentioned No Deal but didn't argue against it, unlike extension or referendum.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Sean_F said:

    We are at the point where in other countries the military would be taking over or the people would be in the streets or both. We are a failing state bereft of leadership with no coherent, credible alternative available. The deceptions and delusions of Brexit have destroyed us.

    The fact that neither the army nor people are in the streets shows that we are not a failing state.

    I disagree. Failure comes in many forms. Ceasing to exist as a consequence of an inability to build consensus is one measure, for example; as are deliberate self-harm, international humiliation and the ceding of all control to foreign powers.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,815
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    We are at the point where in other countries the military would be taking over or the people would be in the streets or both. We are a failing state bereft of leadership with no coherent, credible alternative available. The deceptions and delusions of Brexit have destroyed us.

    The fact that neither the army nor people are in the streets shows that we are not a failing state.
    The people will be on the streets on Saturday.

    The army is merely on standby:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46910535
    But remember there will only be 5 of you to control.
  • So what can we expect first?
    A confidence vote by Tory MPs in her leadership of the party?
    A vote of no confidence in whats left of her government?
    A new record sized defeat for her deal (allowed by Bercow as he knows it'll be a massive NO again)
    Accidental no deal crash out next Friday night
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    OK so May has shown herself unfit to be PM but not for the reasons popularly stated.

    Given all the mistakes she made (and there were many) the deal she negotiated was just about the best possible. She is right that it is MPs who have refused to pursue the least bad, most pragmatic. Her deal is just about the only sensible way forward.

    It is how she has handled its passage including notably last night that marks her out as manifestly not up to the job.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387

    matt said:

    To borrow from Alastair Meeks, have MPs reached the panic point or do they all still consider themselves the cleverest people the the room?

    There’s a fair amount more space for panicking yet. The weekend should be full of it.
    I think we're still at the stage where most MP's believe total victory is achievable.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Good to hear Sir Oliver Letwin on R4 this morning. A reminder that there are still some decent parliamentarians motivated by a sense of duty to the country, and a consequent desire to find a workable compromise.

    The idea that there is a workable compromise at this stage is the problem - at this moment the best advice would be to pause the project in such a way that we can continue afterwards

    Revoking knowing and ensure the courts will rule the revoking illegal is the perfect way to restart the clock
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited March 2019
    Extend or referendum (edit). May was arguing against these in her speech.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:
    I’d be interested in a transcript of that discussion

    It seems unlikely - I suspect she may be making it up / exaggerating for effect

    Why does it seem unlikely? If she has made it up her Tweet would be actionable.

    Actually I have seen recent several occasions where hardliner Leavers completely lose it. Unfortunately it rings all too true.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    There was one noteworthy thing from May's speech - apart from how dishonest and, literally irresponsible it was: she mentioned No Deal but didn't argue against it, unlike extension or referendum.
    The maybot has gone rogue?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    And the rate of signing on the Revoke Article 50 petition is back up to the 1,000+ per minute it was managing yesterday. At this rate it will hit a million sometime this evening.

    Until recently, although I voted Remain and thought leaving was a stupid decision, I always thought it was right to honour the result of the referendum, provided we didn't leave without a deal.

    But what's happening now is plain ridiculous, so I've signed it.
    I think that's a pretty common journey. In my case I was arguing for May's deal at a dinner party last November, and going on the march on Saturday with the people I was arguing against. When the history books get to be written I think the story that will emerge will be of a potential consensus for leaving being thrown away.
    And the worst of it is that - even if by some miracle May does manage to bludgeon her deal through - there will be no goodwill or stable consensus for all the decisions that need to be taken thereafter, nor for the bigger task of fixing our future that lies ahead. May is focused entirely on getting through the next few days and thereafter we will once again be adrift.
    A deal followed by a leadership election focused on the shape of the future (and then a GE)!should create at least a discussion and mandate for the future
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2019

    Sean_F said:

    We are at the point where in other countries the military would be taking over or the people would be in the streets or both. We are a failing state bereft of leadership with no coherent, credible alternative available. The deceptions and delusions of Brexit have destroyed us.

    The fact that neither the army nor people are in the streets shows that we are not a failing state.

    I disagree. Failure comes in many forms. Ceasing to exist as a consequence of an inability to build consensus is one measure, for example; as are deliberate self-harm, international humiliation and the ceding of all control to foreign powers.

    Yes. Much of that can be summed up in the absolute, conscious failure to investigate any American and Russian interference in the most crucial and epochal constitutional change of the last seventy years.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    We are at the point where in other countries the military would be taking over or the people would be in the streets or both. We are a failing state bereft of leadership with no coherent, credible alternative available. The deceptions and delusions of Brexit have destroyed us.

    The fact that neither the army nor people are in the streets shows that we are not a failing state.
    The people will be on the streets on Saturday.

    The army is merely on standby:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46910535
    You do realise that just because Gavin Williamson says something it doesn’t actually happen?
This discussion has been closed.