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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A no deal Brexit on March 29th move from a 12% chance to 22% i
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A no deal Brexit on March 29th move from a 12% chance to 22% in fourteen hours
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
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Good night all - these are dark times indeed. I hope the EU have helped concentrate minds (whether that is to accept the deal or to somehow dispose of May's intentions and go for a longer extension to enable remain), but I fear that won't be the case.
The phrases
"Enough. Put cock in arse"
and
"Crixus, show me to wine"
Have entered my personal lexicon. They give me solace when life weighs heavy. You are in for a treat.
Seriously?
I really do think HMQ needs to step in and prorogue Parliament to let them all have a rest until 1st April.
She might have had more progress if she'd tried the former route at some point.
All she did was import a Trumpian style of politics to the UK.
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
Looking at the Miller decision the judges said:
"the EU Treaties not only concern the international relations of the United Kingdom, they are a source of domestic law, and they are a source of domestic legal rights many of which are inextricably linked with domestic law from other sources. Accordingly, the Royal prerogative to make and unmake treaties, which operates wholly on the international plane, cannot be exercised in relation to the EU Treaties, at least in the absence of domestic sanction in appropriate statutory form."
I think this (and other parts of the judgement) clearly apply to an extension under Article 50 (3) which has profound implications for rights and UK law - for example next Saturday, UK citizens would still be subject to a European Arrest Warrant because of this exercise of prerogative.
The European Withdrawal Act provides a mechanism for the Minister to change the exit date, but does not provide the "unequivocal" authority to do so that the judges in the Miller case said was needed to notify for withdrawal under Article 50.
If the European Withdrawal (Notification) Act was needed to trigger Article 50 (2), I don't see why a similar Act isn't needed for Theresa May to notify the EU under Article 50 (3) which has similarly profound legal consequences.
No deal or revoke is the choice; I think May has made it clear today what side of the fence she'll come down on.
Exciting.
That said, for all the political tin-earedness of it, she is right that MPs have failed to make a decision. Now, a good deal of the reason for that is the government doing all it could to limit parliament's ability to debate Brexit with a blank page, but even when MPs could vote and debate amendments, they still never agreed anything other than that they'd like a committee-designed unicorn.
The most revealing aspect of recent months is that the most extreme remainers are just as deranged when it comes to Europe as Bone, Francois, Cash and co.
They'll insist on 22nd May and they'll be a huge blow up between Theresa May and the nasty old men who run the EU.
Other than that your view looks probable to me.
https://qz.com/1576057/could-ai-make-better-policy-than-politicians/
"I can't possibly vote for May's Deal, because she has told me some home truths and hurt my feelings...."
What twats.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/competition/10393583
I'm sure he is righting hard against the left wing hate mobs too.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.
I signed the revoke petition too.
I repeat - MPs!
I'm guessing someone with a lot of Twitter followers is responsible for such a high rate.
https://petition.parliament.uk
MPs have refused to make that decision, voting down both, pretending there was some magical unicorn just around the corner. Guess what? We're in the end game now, still no unicorns in sight.
What remains a constant is this. Unless MPs manage to find something they can all back then we leave with no deal. I remain absolutely confident that May's deal would be voted down again should somehow it be dragged back to the Commons. I also remain confident that the EU know this, and aren't going to fuck around any longer.
So no deal it is. An Extinction Level Event for the Conservative Party. Lets just hope that it doesn't last very long before the national government which will come into being a couple of days into April is able to beg a reversal from the EU in exchange for the Euro and Schengen