politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A no deal Brexit on March 29th move from a 12% chance to 22% i
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A no deal Brexit on March 29th move from a 12% chance to 22% in fourteen hours
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
Comments
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First first0
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What no thread on the spread of veganism among the middle class dinner party scene?0
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Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.0
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I believe that is called a Dan hannanDougSeal said:First first
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Third like BORIS0
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That graph is going to look like the one on 23rd/24th June 2016 very soon.
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Agreedkle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
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Yes. One surprise that things have been pushed this far is that party discipline, on both sides, has actually held up almost too well, in that the rhetoric of people against various options has not matched their willingness to take action to stop said thing.IanB2 said:
It's the Tory remainers who are key to any resolution. They really will have to put country before party.kle4 said:
They've been doing stuff like that for months.Scott_P said:
They'd rather face a difficult situation later than face an unpleasant decision, which involves u-turning, right now.CD13 said:She's telling it like it is because she's demob-happy. If MPs vote to No-deal the country because their feelings are upset, I suspect they'll need police protection next time they go canvassing.
So, thinking ahead, assuming May gets through the weekend when do MPs at least try to act? And if they do not and or do and fail, when would MPs, mostly Labour, need to break ranks in their dozens to prevent no deal?
Good night all - these are dark times indeed. I hope the EU have helped concentrate minds (whether that is to accept the deal or to somehow dispose of May's intentions and go for a longer extension to enable remain), but I fear that won't be the case.0 -
Won't matter, if Mercer gets his wish.IanB2 said:Third like BORIS
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22% in the betting but feels like considerably more than 50% now
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I've just signed the petition in favour of May's deal. Signature 46 and 1st in my constituency
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A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:0 -
fpt for SeanF on Spartacus
The phrases
"Enough. Put cock in arse"
and
"Crixus, show me to wine"
Have entered my personal lexicon. They give me solace when life weighs heavy. You are in for a treat.0 -
MPs want to avoid a No-deal Brexit by... not voting for the deal?
Seriously?0 -
Oh dear.williamglenn said:
I really do think HMQ needs to step in and prorogue Parliament to let them all have a rest until 1st April.0 -
They are utterly clueless and lacking in self awarenessRichard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:0 -
0
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May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
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I can see the second phrase being handy but I'm wondering when I might have occasion to deploy the first.SeanT said:fpt for SeanF on Spartacus
The phrases
"Enough. Put cock in arse"
and
"Crixus, show me to wine"
Have entered my personal lexicon. They give me solace when life weighs heavy. You are in for a treat.0 -
I am not surprised as remain has suffered a set back today - doubt it will change anything no matter how high it goesIanB2 said:
In the same time period the revoke one is up by another 18,000Pulpstar said:I've just signed the petition in favour of May's deal. Signature 46 and 1st in my constituency
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Baldrick would be proud to call the plan his own.Sunil_Prasannan said:MPs want to avoid a No-deal Brexit by... not voting for the deal?
Seriously?0 -
She's not telling them to make *a* decision. She's telling them to make *her* decision.Richard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:
She might have had more progress if she'd tried the former route at some point.0 -
No Deal still leads to SM and Customs Union BINO, there is no majority in the Commons to sustain a WTO terms Brexitkle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
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Maguire does have a tendency to BSFloater said:0 -
<<A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.>>
All she did was import a Trumpian style of politics to the UK.0 -
Yeah, unless you inhabit Parliament Square.Floater said:0 -
Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
As I said, Boris must have offered him a top job. And Mercer has forgotten that Boris offers each job multiple times.rottenborough said:
Won't matter, if Mercer gets his wish.IanB2 said:Third like BORIS
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No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
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I've just signed the Revoke petition. Signature 211,213 and 940th in my constituency.Pulpstar said:I've just signed the petition in favour of May's deal. Signature 46 and 1st in my constituency
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/2415840 -
If I want to launch a legal challenge to Theresa May's ability to use Royal Prerogative to extend or revoke Article 50 (Gina Miller style), How do I go about it? Can anyone recommend a good QC to approach?
Looking at the Miller decision the judges said:
"the EU Treaties not only concern the international relations of the United Kingdom, they are a source of domestic law, and they are a source of domestic legal rights many of which are inextricably linked with domestic law from other sources. Accordingly, the Royal prerogative to make and unmake treaties, which operates wholly on the international plane, cannot be exercised in relation to the EU Treaties, at least in the absence of domestic sanction in appropriate statutory form."
I think this (and other parts of the judgement) clearly apply to an extension under Article 50 (3) which has profound implications for rights and UK law - for example next Saturday, UK citizens would still be subject to a European Arrest Warrant because of this exercise of prerogative.
The European Withdrawal Act provides a mechanism for the Minister to change the exit date, but does not provide the "unequivocal" authority to do so that the judges in the Miller case said was needed to notify for withdrawal under Article 50.
If the European Withdrawal (Notification) Act was needed to trigger Article 50 (2), I don't see why a similar Act isn't needed for Theresa May to notify the EU under Article 50 (3) which has similarly profound legal consequences.0 -
Been convinced for ages the deal is dead, like Norwegian blue dead.
No deal or revoke is the choice; I think May has made it clear today what side of the fence she'll come down on.
Exciting.0 -
She really didn't. I'm no fan of Theresa May, but this is complete fantasy.WhisperingOracle said:No deal revocation petition gaining about 100,00 voters pe
All she did was import a Trumpian style of politics to the UK.Richard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:0 -
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
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This is also the man who was happy to get involved in a fake news website whose only aim was to spread smears against political opponents.dyedwoolie said:
Maguire does have a tendency to BSFloater said:0 -
Then it may hang on Kyle/Wilson passingdavid_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
If you have the money, try David Pannick.Anna said:If I want to launch a legal challenge to Theresa May's ability to use Royal Prerogative to extend or revoke Article 50 (Gina Miller style), How do I go about it? Can anyone recommend a good QC to approach?
Looking at the Miller decision the judges said:
"the EU Treaties not only concern the international relations of the United Kingdom, they are a source of domestic law, and they are a source of domestic legal rights many of which are inextricably linked with domestic law from other sources. Accordingly, the Royal prerogative to make and unmake treaties, which operates wholly on the international plane, cannot be exercised in relation to the EU Treaties, at least in the absence of domestic sanction in appropriate statutory form."
I think this (and other parts of the judgement) clearly apply to an extension under Article 50 (3) which has profound implications for rights and UK law - for example next Saturday, UK citizens would still be subject to a European Arrest Warrant because of this exercise of prerogative.
The European Withdrawal Act provides a mechanism for the Minister to change the exit date, but does not provide the "unequivocal" authority to do so that the judges in the Miller case said was needed to notify for withdrawal under Article 50.
If the European Withdrawal (Notification) Act was needed to trigger Article 50 (2), I don't see why a similar Act isn't needed for Theresa May to notify the EU under Article 50 (3) which has similarly profound legal consequences.0 -
I think her patience finally snapped tonight (or showed as having snapped, for the first time).Richard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:
That said, for all the political tin-earedness of it, she is right that MPs have failed to make a decision. Now, a good deal of the reason for that is the government doing all it could to limit parliament's ability to debate Brexit with a blank page, but even when MPs could vote and debate amendments, they still never agreed anything other than that they'd like a committee-designed unicorn.0 -
Don't Pannick! Don't Pannick!Sean_F said:
If you have the money, try David Pannick.Anna said:If I want to launch a legal challenge to Theresa May's ability to use Royal Prerogative to extend or revoke Article 50 (Gina Miller style), How do I go about it? Can anyone recommend a good QC to approach?
Looking at the Miller decision the judges said:
"the EU Treaties not only concern the international relations of the United Kingdom, they are a source of domestic law, and they are a source of domestic legal rights many of which are inextricably linked with domestic law from other sources. Accordingly, the Royal prerogative to make and unmake treaties, which operates wholly on the international plane, cannot be exercised in relation to the EU Treaties, at least in the absence of domestic sanction in appropriate statutory form."
I think this (and other parts of the judgement) clearly apply to an extension under Article 50 (3) which has profound implications for rights and UK law - for example next Saturday, UK citizens would still be subject to a European Arrest Warrant because of this exercise of prerogative.
The European Withdrawal Act provides a mechanism for the Minister to change the exit date, but does not provide the "unequivocal" authority to do so that the judges in the Miller case said was needed to notify for withdrawal under Article 50.
If the European Withdrawal (Notification) Act was needed to trigger Article 50 (2), I don't see why a similar Act isn't needed for Theresa May to notify the EU under Article 50 (3) which has similarly profound legal consequences.0 -
Same story for a long time now: whether arch-remainer or ERG, they won't accept anything but 100%, and throw a major hissy fit whenever anything goes against their purist ideals (see Grieve today).Sunil_Prasannan said:MPs want to avoid a No-deal Brexit by... not voting for the deal?
The most revealing aspect of recent months is that the most extreme remainers are just as deranged when it comes to Europe as Bone, Francois, Cash and co.
0 -
They've twice voted her deal down by record breaking margins. A bit of self reflection from her would go a long way, rather than turning against the people she needs.Richard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:0 -
I was going to suggest Jolyon Maugham.Sean_F said:
If you have the money, try David Pannick.Anna said:If I want to launch a legal challenge to Theresa May's ability to use Royal Prerogative to extend or revoke Article 50 (Gina Miller style), How do I go about it? Can anyone recommend a good QC to approach?
Looking at the Miller decision the judges said:
"the EU Treaties not only concern the international relations of the United Kingdom, they are a source of domestic law, and they are a source of domestic legal rights many of which are inextricably linked with domestic law from other sources. Accordingly, the Royal prerogative to make and unmake treaties, which operates wholly on the international plane, cannot be exercised in relation to the EU Treaties, at least in the absence of domestic sanction in appropriate statutory form."
I think this (and other parts of the judgement) clearly apply to an extension under Article 50 (3) which has profound implications for rights and UK law - for example next Saturday, UK citizens would still be subject to a European Arrest Warrant because of this exercise of prerogative.
The European Withdrawal Act provides a mechanism for the Minister to change the exit date, but does not provide the "unequivocal" authority to do so that the judges in the Miller case said was needed to notify for withdrawal under Article 50.
If the European Withdrawal (Notification) Act was needed to trigger Article 50 (2), I don't see why a similar Act isn't needed for Theresa May to notify the EU under Article 50 (3) which has similarly profound legal consequences.0 -
Sunil, if I started describing the stupidity, malevolence, or narcissism of our current MPs in the words I thought best expressed them, OGH would ban me. I didn't know it was possible to feel such contempt for MPs.Sunil_Prasannan said:MPs want to avoid a No-deal Brexit by... not voting for the deal?
Seriously?0 -
More than possibledavid_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
For extension, actually leaving means passing the Withdrawal Bill. Which hasn't happened yet.Anna said:If I want to launch a legal challenge to Theresa May's ability to use Royal Prerogative to extend or revoke Article 50 (Gina Miller style), How do I go about it? Can anyone recommend a good QC to approach?
Looking at the Miller decision the judges said:
"the EU Treaties not only concern the international relations of the United Kingdom, they are a source of domestic law, and they are a source of domestic legal rights many of which are inextricably linked with domestic law from other sources. Accordingly, the Royal prerogative to make and unmake treaties, which operates wholly on the international plane, cannot be exercised in relation to the EU Treaties, at least in the absence of domestic sanction in appropriate statutory form."
I think this (and other parts of the judgement) clearly apply to an extension under Article 50 (3) which has profound implications for rights and UK law - for example next Saturday, UK citizens would still be subject to a European Arrest Warrant because of this exercise of prerogative.
The European Withdrawal Act provides a mechanism for the Minister to change the exit date, but does not provide the "unequivocal" authority to do so that the judges in the Miller case said was needed to notify for withdrawal under Article 50.
If the European Withdrawal (Notification) Act was needed to trigger Article 50 (2), I don't see why a similar Act isn't needed for Theresa May to notify the EU under Article 50 (3) which has similarly profound legal consequences.0 -
Seems sensible except I don't think EU will agree to 30th June.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
They'll insist on 22nd May and they'll be a huge blow up between Theresa May and the nasty old men who run the EU.
Other than that your view looks probable to me.0 -
Eh? We leave with no deal unless parliament supports the EU's deal (or agrees with a big majority on something else which is attainable, although really that's months too late). She has been urging MPs to support the EU's deal since November. For various reasons of their own, cynical in the case of the opposition, they've chosen not to. If there's one person on this earth who is not to blame if MPs choose not to accept the orderly exit on offer, it is her.Jonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
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My MP is also in favour of May's deal, and he's not even a Tory !Barnesian said:
I've just signed the Revoke petition. Signature 211,213 and 940th in my constituency.Pulpstar said:I've just signed the petition in favour of May's deal. Signature 46 and 1st in my constituency
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/2415840 -
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
The know what they don't want, not what they do want.DanSmith said:
They've twice voted her deal down by record breaking margins. A bit of self reflection from her would go a long way, rather than turning against the people she needs.Richard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:0 -
Sorry, yes, I switched tabs without realising. It hasn't moved this evening - but was 1.14 yesterday,Barnesian said:0 -
In what way ? There's no modern precedent in British politics of public statements exclusively for the purpose of pitting lawmakers as a whole against the figure of leadership in this way. It's been a continual feature of Trumpian politics, though.Richard_Nabavi said:
She really didn't. I'm no fan of Theresa May, but this is complete fantasy.WhisperingOracle said:No deal revocation petition gaining about 100,00 voters pe
All she did was import a Trumpian style of politics to the UK.Richard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:0 -
If Labour had backed the deal last week, we wouldn't be in a no-deal scenario.Jonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
Isn't your usual line that the people are to blame for stupidly not giving her a landslide?Richard_Nabavi said:
Eh? We leave with no deal unless parliament supports the EU's deal (or agrees with a big majority on something else which is attainable, although really that's months too late). She has been urging MPs to support the EU's deal since November. For various reasons of their own, cynical in the case of the opposition, they've chosen not to. If there's one person on this earth who is not to blame if MPs choose not to accept the orderly exit on offer, it is her.Jonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
A new survey on Europeans’ attitudes towards technology found that a quarter of people would prefer it if policy decisions were made by artificial intelligence instead of politicians.
https://qz.com/1576057/could-ai-make-better-policy-than-politicians/0 -
Sure, she's useless at stroking their childish egos. But so what? This is about the future of the country, not the amour-propre of MPs. Or at least it should be.DanSmith said:
They've twice voted her deal down by record breaking margins. A bit of self reflection from her would go a long way, rather than turning against the people she needs.Richard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:0 -
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
I thought MPs were meant to have rhino hides?
"I can't possibly vote for May's Deal, because she has told me some home truths and hurt my feelings...."
What twats.0 -
Yes, of course. But we are where we are.williamglenn said:
Isn't your usual line that the people are to blame for stupidly not giving her a landslide?Richard_Nabavi said:
Eh? We leave with no deal unless parliament supports the EU's deal (or agrees with a big majority on something else which is attainable, although really that's months too late). She has been urging MPs to support the EU's deal since November. For various reasons of their own, cynical in the case of the opposition, they've chosen not to. If there's one person on this earth who is not to blame if MPs choose not to accept the orderly exit on offer, it is her.Jonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
0 -
Save your moneyTheScreamingEagles said:
I was going to suggest Jolyon Maugham.Sean_F said:
If you have the money, try David Pannick.Anna said:If I want to launch a legal challenge to Theresa May's ability to use Royal Prerogative to extend or revoke Article 50 (Gina Miller style), How do I go about it? Can anyone recommend a good QC to approach?
Looking at the Miller decision the judges said:
"the EU Treaties not only concern the international relations of the United Kingdom, they are a source of domestic law, and they are a source of domestic legal rights many of which are inextricably linked with domestic law from other sources. Accordingly, the Royal prerogative to make and unmake treaties, which operates wholly on the international plane, cannot be exercised in relation to the EU Treaties, at least in the absence of domestic sanction in appropriate statutory form."
I think this (and other parts of the judgement) clearly apply to an extension under Article 50 (3) which has profound implications for rights and UK law - for example next Saturday, UK citizens would still be subject to a European Arrest Warrant because of this exercise of prerogative.
The European Withdrawal Act provides a mechanism for the Minister to change the exit date, but does not provide the "unequivocal" authority to do so that the judges in the Miller case said was needed to notify for withdrawal under Article 50.
If the European Withdrawal (Notification) Act was needed to trigger Article 50 (2), I don't see why a similar Act isn't needed for Theresa May to notify the EU under Article 50 (3) which has similarly profound legal consequences.0 -
But Thursday is too late to change events. They need to pre-empt and act by Monday. Which is why MV3 will likely drop back to Wednesday.dixiedean said:
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
0 -
Given his revolting brutality towards the rebel slaves, it's fitting that Crassus met a very karmic end.SeanT said:fpt for SeanF on Spartacus
The phrases
"Enough. Put cock in arse"
and
"Crixus, show me to wine"
Have entered my personal lexicon. They give me solace when life weighs heavy. You are in for a treat.0 -
What can they do on Monday?IanB2 said:
But Thursday is too late to change events. They need to pre-empt and act by Monday. Which is why MV3 will likely drop back to Wednesday.dixiedean said:
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
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I was thinking that.FrancisUrquhart said:
This is also the man who was happy to get involved in a fake news website whose only aim was to spread smears against political opponents.dyedwoolie said:
Maguire does have a tendency to BSFloater said:
I'm sure he is righting hard against the left wing hate mobs too.0 -
Some of have been saying for months that May's strategy of running down the clock was utterly reckless and doomed to fail. After spending that time making excuse after excuse for her, making smug comments about how MPs are bound to give into her blackmail (usually described as "minds being focussed"), her cheerleaders have now decided not to show a moment's humility or reflection, and instead immediately pivoted to "it's all the MPs' fault!" Incredible.0
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This whole "woe is me" bullshit from MPs is not going to work. They are at fault, they have made no decisions for three years.0
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If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.dixiedean said:
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.0 -
I'm signature 48.Pulpstar said:I've just signed the petition in favour of May's deal. Signature 46 and 1st in my constituency
I signed the revoke petition too.0 -
Well it was the MPs wot voted against the deal - the only realistic deal attainable ATM - not once, but twice!Stereotomy said:Some of have been saying for months that May's strategy of running down the clock was utterly reckless and doomed to fail. After spending that time making excuse after excuse for her, making smug comments about how MPs are bound to give into her blackmail (usually described as "minds being focussed"), her cheerleaders have now decided not to show a moment's humility or reflection, and instead immediately pivoted to "it's all the MPs' fault!" Incredible.
I repeat - MPs!0 -
... which would ensure a 'no deal' Brexit.dixiedean said:
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
Except that it's not her that has been running down the clock. She wanted the EU's deal (often wrong called her deal) signed off in November or December, which would have given plenty of time.Stereotomy said:Some of have been saying for months that May's strategy of running down the clock was utterly reckless and doomed to fail. After spending that time making excuse after excuse for her, making smug comments about how MPs are bound to give into her blackmail (usually described as "minds being focussed"), her cheerleaders have now decided not to show a moment's humility or reflection, and instead immediately pivoted to "it's all the MPs' fault!" Incredible.
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Bloody hell. 79,000 signatures in the last hour.
I'm guessing someone with a lot of Twitter followers is responsible for such a high rate.
https://petition.parliament.uk0 -
But a comprise isn't in offer. The EU have made it is clear, it's this deal or nothing. Jezza is as bad as may for just repeating the same crap over and over again.williamglenn said:0 -
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
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If she has the votes for the WA then it will get heard.rottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
The date will change to Junerottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
He is not going to stop something as big as this and be directly responsible for no deal 2 days laterrottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
To be honest I think this is a pretty basic leadership skills here. Charm people, create a few power blocks of your own, make it possible for your opponents to climb down at the last minute. A last minute Dead vs No Deal vote should be an easy win for May, apart from the ERG & DUP, everyone is going to be looking for a reason to vote for her deal. She's made that impossible for a lot of people, probably too many.Richard_Nabavi said:
Sure, she's useless at stroking their childish egos. But so what? This is about the future of the country, not the amour-propre of MPs. Or at least it should be.DanSmith said:
They've twice voted her deal down by record breaking margins. A bit of self reflection from her would go a long way, rather than turning against the people she needs.Richard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:0 -
Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."0
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There's a pro no deal petition with nearly 370,000 signatures. The revoke petition has some way to go.0
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And I don't think Bercow will want to be held responsible for 'no deal', which is what happens if the deal isn't voted on.HYUFD said:
The date will change to Junerottenborough said:
How does WA get voted on? Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bercow has said it can't come back this session unless substantially different.OblitusSumMe said:
The main chance of avoiding no deal is that a referendum amendment to the WA motion that also asks for a long extension is passed - but I expect that a combination of loyalty to Corbyn and May will prevent this from succeeding.david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.0 -
Yep, been obvious for months that was the case. Deal or no-deal, make a decision.FrancisUrquhart said:The EU have made it is clear, it's this deal or nothing.
MPs have refused to make that decision, voting down both, pretending there was some magical unicorn just around the corner. Guess what? We're in the end game now, still no unicorns in sight.
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In all fairness, the Corbynator is probably right in this case. Stopped clock syndrome, certainly. But right nevertheless.williamglenn said:0 -
Ha ; Dead vs No Deal - another of the best typos ever.DanSmith said:
To be honest I think this is a pretty basic leadership skills here. Charm people, create a few power blocks of your own, make it possible for your opponents to climb down at the last minute. A last minute Dead vs No Deal vote should be an easy win for May, apart from the ERG & DUP, everyone is going to be looking for a reason to vote for her deal. She's made that impossible for a lot of people, probably too many.Richard_Nabavi said:
Sure, she's useless at stroking their childish egos. But so what? This is about the future of the country, not the amour-propre of MPs. Or at least it should be.DanSmith said:
They've twice voted her deal down by record breaking margins. A bit of self reflection from her would go a long way, rather than turning against the people she needs.Richard_Nabavi said:
A hell of a stretch to blame Theresa May for that. All she did tonight was tell them to make an effing decision. In the circumstances, tin-eared though she is, one can't but admire her patience.williamglenn said:0 -
Which leads to SM and Customs Union BINO, there is no majority in the Commons to sustain a WTO terms No Deal Brexit, nor will the country be able to sustain the economic damage and threat to the Union of No Deal as well as the chaos in Northern IrelandRoyalBlue said:
If the PM gets VONC’ed, she stays in office for 2 more weeks, unless someone else can form a government that will command the confidence of the Commons before time is up. If that doesn’t happen, we have an election.dixiedean said:
Plausible. However, wouldn't Thursday see half the government quit and a VONC?david_herdson said:Still much too low. There is a very good chance the next week looks something like this:
Thu/Fri. May goes to EU summit. EU27 agree extension to June 30, to be activated if the Commons pass the WA.
Tue. HoC votes down the WA again. By a lot. Again. TMay throws a strop. Again.
Wed. Cabinet deadlock. Unable to agree alternative proposals. Request extension activated anyway.
Wed, later. Tusk refuses to convene emergency summit. No extension. Bercow confirms no further vote on WA possible given no change in WA status.
Fri 11pm. UK leaves EU without a deal.
The only realistic alternate leader of a government in the House of Commons today is Jeremy Corbyn. For this reason, May will not be moved, and we shall leave with her deal or no deal.
I think it’s increasingly likely to be no deal.0 -
I have genuinely no idea what happens over the next week. None. Literally anything is possible including the 1922 firing May from a Cannon into the Sun.
What remains a constant is this. Unless MPs manage to find something they can all back then we leave with no deal. I remain absolutely confident that May's deal would be voted down again should somehow it be dragged back to the Commons. I also remain confident that the EU know this, and aren't going to fuck around any longer.
So no deal it is. An Extinction Level Event for the Conservative Party. Lets just hope that it doesn't last very long before the national government which will come into being a couple of days into April is able to beg a reversal from the EU in exchange for the Euro and Schengen0 -
Sounds like I need to get stocked up on bog rollswilliamglenn said:Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
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Your opinion is as valid as mine - that is democracy but best not to make things personalJonathan said:
No. There is a moment when a line is crossed and that was today. Your continued support for this uniquely damaging leader needs to be challenged. Her brinkmanship and blindness to ideas other than hers is at the heart of the problem. She has engineered a situation where no deal is possible just to force her narrow view of Brexit. No deal would not be possible without her. You support her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are now becoming personal and plainly silly. Grow upJonathan said:
She enables it, you support her, this is on you.Big_G_NorthWales said:
No I do notJonathan said:
May has created this false binary choice. She has taken us to the brink of no deal. Since she insists on making it a binary choice she must go for us to avoid it. If you support May, you support no deal.kle4 said:Sigh, the chance is higher than that. When MPs are too busy being offended to even address if they accept the basic premise that it is no deal or deal (or take some positive action for a chance to take control), the chance of accidental no deal is definitely higher than that. Every day the no dealers get stronger.
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Let's see how they feel after doorstep conversations this weekendwilliamglenn said:Lisa Nandy: "There is absolutely no chance that Theresa May is going to win over MPs after that statement. It was an attack on liberal democracy itself."
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