politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting chances of Commons agreeing deal before March 30th

First!

Third like Boris

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1108435310457831425

I think the deal will pass, but the manner of its passing is very, very shabby.

RoyalBlue said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1108435310457831425

Unserious politics from unserious parties.

I’m not going to say what I think about Dominic Grieve.

The most unserious party in the country is surely only one, given our current situation.

MaxPB said:

I just wonder how close to the brink we'll get or if we will, in fact, fall off the cliff edge.

Every MP not voting for the deal in the Tory party needs to be expelled and not allowed to stand for us in the election that is inevitably going to follow ratification of the WA, even if it means we lose.

Will it follow? I don't see why Theresa wouldn't bask in the gratitude of the nation and just stay put.

Government adopting Snell Nandy would substantially change the MV so should make it allowable by Bercow.

We need to revoke.

Brexit was fun while it lasted. However, an incompetent PM has been unable to reach a deal that is better than Remaining.

Just back from holiday this evening. Did anything happen whilst I was gone? :-)

The betting on the Deal passing before the deadline seems wildly overdone to me. Besides anything else, if Macron or any of the other EU leaders puts their foot down over the A50 extension then there's no longer time to finish passing all the necessary legislation before the scheduled withdrawal date. Under those circumstances, is Parliament meant to pass the Deal that's it's previously overwhelmingly rejected twice AND put the country into almost immediate, if temporary, violation of its terms because half the rules needed to make it work haven't been written into statute? Or does the Deal, in fact, go out of the window and leave Parliament with a straight choice between Revocation and Hard Brexit?

Can the useless nitwits bring themselves to vote for Revocation under such circumstances, even though the bulk of them think No Deal a catastrophe and most of those have probably been secretly yearning to cancel the whole project for the entirety of the past three years? Would anyone care to wager any money on that contention? I know I wouldn't.

The betting markets might be swinging towards the Deal, but most people thought Remain was going to win on the day of the referendum itself - right up until the point that the results started to come in. Surely the ERG are, in fact, very, very close to winning?

JenS said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/francediplo_EN/status/1108409693720985600?s=20

Full quote:

“Dans

Which I would translate:

“When looking at this request for an extension, and dates, we will especially consider the interests of the EU, which require three things.

“That the extension is to complete ratification of the negotiated withdrawal agreement, that the UK is very clear about the fact that it will not be renegotiated and its integrity will be preserved, and that the UK will not participate in the next EU elections."

"A situation in which Mrs Mary is not in a position to give the European Council sufficient guarantees about the credibility of her strategy will lead to rejection of the request for an extension and to a preference for a no-deal exit"

If France sticks to this, it rules out a long extension if the deal is not accepted by Parliament next week. Because then the extension is not to ratify the deal, and France is ruling out a different deal. So switching to Norway would not make France grant an extension, and there is no time for Norway without an extension. Also, a general election will not make France grant an extension, because a general election does not allow Mrs May to "guarantee" that ratification of the deal will follow, rather than an attempt to negotiate another deal.

Ruling out UK participation in the Euro elections leads to the same result: no extension except to implement Mrs May's deal. No extension for a general election, because that would require us to participate in the Euro elections. No extension for a referendum, for the same reasons.

This statement makes all the UK MPs positions pointless. It really is Mrs May's deal or a no-deal Brexit on 29 March.


Norway or CU remain possibilities as these are about the final Trade Deal, which is not set in stone like the WA, and indeed are excellent ways to resolve the backstop and other issues.

The WA may get through, but will set a poisonous atmosphere for the next 18 months of discussions, in all parties. Mrs May's coercion tactics will not keep MPs on board for long.

Reintroduction of Section 28 by the back door here now ffsake

eek said:

JenS said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/francediplo_EN/status/1108409693720985600?s=20

Full quote:

“Dans l’examen de cette demande d’extension et des dates? nous veillerons particulièrement aux intérêts de l’Union”, a dit Jean-Yves Le Drian lors de la séance des questions au gouvernement à l’Assemblée nationale.

“Ce qui nécessite trois choses : que la prolongation ait pour objectif de finaliser la ratification de l’accord de retrait négocié, que le Royaume-Uni soit très clair sur le fait que l’accord de retrait entériné en novembre dernier ne sera pas renégocié et que son intégrité sera préservée et que le Royaume-Uni ne participe pas aux prochaines élections européennes”, a-t-il ajouté.

“Une situation dans laquelle Mme May ne serait pas en mesure de présenter au Conseil européen des garanties suffisantes sur la crédibilité de sa stratégie conduirait alors à écarter la demande d’extension et à préférer une sortie sans accord”

Which I would translate:

“When looking at this request for an extension, and dates, we will especially consider the interests of the EU, which require three things.

“That the extension is to complete ratification of the negotiated withdrawal agreement, that the UK is very clear about the fact that it will not be renegotiated and its integrity will be preserved, and that the UK will not participate in the next EU elections."

"A situation in which Mrs Mary is not in a position to give the European Council sufficient guarantees about the credibility of her strategy will lead to rejection of the request for an extension and to a preference for a no-deal exit"

If France sticks to this, it rules out a long extension if the deal is not accepted by Parliament next week. Because then the extension is not to ratify the deal, and France is ruling out a different deal. So switching to Norway would not make France grant an extension, and there is no time for Norway without an extension. Also, a general election will not make France grant an extension, because a general election does not allow Mrs May to "guarantee" that ratification of the deal will follow, rather than an attempt to negotiate another deal.

Ruling out UK participation in the Euro elections leads to the same result: no extension except to implement Mrs May's deal. No extension for a general election, because that would require us to participate in the Euro elections. No extension for a referendum, for the same reasons.

This statement makes all the UK MPs positions pointless. It really is Mrs May's deal or a no-deal Brexit on 29 March.

or revoke - and try again when we've decided what we actually want to do....

Yes ... as proposed by Ken Clarke.

RoyalBlue said:

SandyRentool said:

We need to revoke.

Brexit was fun while it lasted. However, an incompetent PM has been unable to reach a deal that is better than Remaining.

The only thing more incompetent would be to do as you suggest, split the Tory Party, and by default let the gang of Marxist, Jew-hating thugs who run your party into power.

The Labour leadership will not be in power. They will need to keep the entire PLP plus the SNP on board. Expect nothing more than a soft left agenda to be enacted.

I doubt whether we'll even renationalise the water industry.

Remainers on their hands and knees in desperation imploring for revoke. They know they've probably lost.

Guardian: Her political capital is all spent. She has no allies at home or abroad. Her only leverage in parliament comes from the fear that her appalling management of the country provokes – the prospect that she is incompetent enough to allow the worst to happen. She long ago lost sight of diplomacy and strategy. Then she shed authority. Now she has abandoned responsibility, completing the journey from bad prime minister to rogue prime minister.

JenS said:

Mrs May will not revoke. Most of Labour, including the leadership, will not revoke in the next 2 weeks with no general election or referendum cover. The ERG will not revoke. I don't think there is a majority to revoke in this timescale.
It's deal or no deal.

Revoke = status quo while we decide what to do
May's Deal = rejected twice why would you go for it now
No Deal = gamble into the great unknown.

The reason to revoke is that the EU won't allow us to extend - that may be enough to justify it.

We then have the EU election and people could use that as a basis for what to do next.

IanB2 said:

Guardian: Her political capital is all spent. She has no allies at home or abroad. Her only leverage in parliament comes from the fear that her appalling management of the country provokes – the prospect that she is incompetent enough to allow the worst to happen. She long ago lost sight of diplomacy and strategy. Then she shed authority. Now she has abandoned responsibility, completing the journey from bad prime minister to rogue prime minister.

Desperate from the Guardian. How dare someone implement Brexit.

Luckyguy1983 said:

IanB2 said:

Guardian: Her political capital is all spent. She has no allies at home or abroad. Her only leverage in parliament comes from the fear that her appalling management of the country provokes – the prospect that she is incompetent enough to allow the worst to happen. She long ago lost sight of diplomacy and strategy. Then she shed authority. Now she has abandoned responsibility, completing the journey from bad prime minister to rogue prime minister.

Desperate from the Guardian. How dare someone implement Brexit.

Whatever Brexit is, ofcourse.

williamglenn said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

IanB2 said:

Guardian: Her political capital is all spent. She has no allies at home or abroad. Her only leverage in parliament comes from the fear that her appalling management of the country provokes – the prospect that she is incompetent enough to allow the worst to happen. She long ago lost sight of diplomacy and strategy. Then she shed authority. Now she has abandoned responsibility, completing the journey from bad prime minister to rogue prime minister.

Desperate from the Guardian. How dare someone implement Brexit.

Is her deal Brexit or not Brexit? Opinions vary.

It's plenty.

Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

The counter is spinning happily.

Edit/ and the map of the signatures is interesting.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

JenS said:

Mrs May will not revoke. Most of Labour, including the leadership, will not revoke in the next 2 weeks with no general election or referendum cover. The ERG will not revoke. I don't think there is a majority to revoke in this timescale.
It's deal or no deal.

Yes, that is the position the EU want us to be in because they consider that the so-called "deal" will allow them to absolutely crucify the UK in the negotiations to come, while even though they fear it they see very little prospect of the UK choosing to leave on 29th March with our hands untied.

Whether that is in reality the only choice for the UK depends on whether you take Tusk at his word. It purports to be their final position. If MPs instead voted for a long extension while rejecting May's surrender, would they really force the UK into the situation which they fear - namely to force us to leave on 30th March in a situation where our hands were untied and we could negotiate a new relationship commencing on 30th March?

The EU is I think trying to force the UK into false choices, aided and abetted by the PM. Will their bluff be called by parliament?

Please. This is desperate stuff. If they won't grant a short extension, we'll leave on the required date. I'd love there to be a short no deal-y period just for the absence of plagues of locusts.

My hat goes off to whoever built petitions.parliament.uk. That’s some serious load and it’s not breaking sweat.

Wulfrun_Phil said:

JenS said:

Mrs May will not revoke. Most of Labour, including the leadership, will not revoke in the next 2 weeks with no general election or referendum cover. The ERG will not revoke. I don't think there is a majority to revoke in this timescale.
It's deal or no deal.

Yes, that is the position the EU want us to be in because they consider that the so-called "deal" will allow them to absolutely crucify the UK in the negotiations to come, while even though they fear it they see very little prospect of the UK choosing to leave on 29th March with our hands untied.

Whether that is in reality the only choice for the UK depends on whether you take Tusk at his word. It purports to be their final position. If MPs instead voted for a long extension while rejecting May's surrender, would they really force the UK into the situation which they fear - namely to force us to leave on 30th March in a situation where our hands were untied and we could negotiate a new relationship commencing on 30th March?

The EU is I think trying to force the UK into false choices, aided and abetted by the PM. Will their bluff be called by parliament?

It does all feel an awful lot like a stitch-up between the EU and May to narrow down Britain's range of choice.

..and as others have mentioned, it's also revealing how much the EU seems to want to quickly get the WA inked and signed, as apparently by far the most smoothly and painlessly aligned with its own best interests.

Yay! Free Bar! #drinktoforgetbrexit

IanB2 said:

Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

The counter is spinning happily.

Edit/ and the map of the signatures is interesting.

Does Parliament know something we don't?

From that page

Register to vote
To vote in local, national and EU elections, you must be registered to vote.

It takes less than 5 minutes.

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

The counter is spinning happily.

Edit/ and the map of the signatures is interesting.

Why are we getting excited about 60,000 signatures on that?

I could see that easily it topping a million soon from those who hitherto supported a 2nd referendum.

70,000 now....

.

To be honest, the biggest and most significant development that’s pissed me off this year is the cancellation of the public Farnborough Airshow going forwards.

It’s an institution.

Such things matter to me way more than Brexit.

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

It will never pass. No dealers have no reason to, and remainers are holding true to the faith, content they will not receive most of the blame if we no deal as a result.

The statement that the deal and no deal are disaster and catastrophe respectively means that anyone else must give up on Brexit at all - Labour members want that, as do most of their MPs, but that seems beyond them taking up as an official position.

OK.

So what happens next?

Will Justing Greening desert the Conservative Party for the TIGgers, and will Remainers looks to put a caretaker "government of national (remainer) unity" in place?

Not just that but two times the remain/second ref option has come to the house, the first was withdrawn because it wouldn't pass and the second got defeated quite badly. Even now there is no majority for revoke or a second referendum.

Casino_Royale said:

To be honest, the biggest and most significant development that’s pissed me off this year is the cancellation of the public Farnborough Airshow going forwards.

It’s an institution.

Such things matter to me way more than Brexit.

Go to RIAT. It’s much, much better.

SNP / Greens / LibDems have the right idea. A continuous session of Parliament until they reach a decision

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

It will never pass. No dealers have no reason to, and remainers are holding true to the faith, content they will not receive most of the blame if we no deal as a result.

The statement that the deal and no deal are disaster and catastrophe respectively means that anyone else must give up on Brexit at all - Labour members want that, as do most of their MPs, but that seems beyond them taking up as an official position.

OK.

So what happens next?

Will Justing Greening desert the Conservative Party for the TIGgers, and will Remainers looks to put a caretaker "government of national (remainer) unity" in place?

I think he’s right.

WhisperingOracle said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

JenS said:

Mrs May will not revoke. Most of Labour, including the leadership, will not revoke in the next 2 weeks with no general election or referendum cover. The ERG will not revoke. I don't think there is a majority to revoke in this timescale.
It's deal or no deal.

Yes, that is the position the EU want us to be in because they consider that the so-called "deal" will allow them to absolutely crucify the UK in the negotiations to come, while even though they fear it they see very little prospect of the UK choosing to leave on 29th March with our hands untied.

Whether that is in reality the only choice for the UK depends on whether you take Tusk at his word. It purports to be their final position. If MPs instead voted for a long extension while rejecting May's surrender, would they really force the UK into the situation which they fear - namely to force us to leave on 30th March in a situation where our hands were untied and we could negotiate a new relationship commencing on 30th March?

The EU is I think trying to force the UK into false choices, aided and abetted by the PM. Will their bluff be called by parliament?

It does all feel an awful lot like a stitch-up between the EU and May to narrow down Britain's range of choice.

..and as others have mentioned, it's also revealing how much the EU seems to want to quickly get the WA inked and signed ...

The question is how many WA inkers there are in the House of Commons.

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

It will never pass. No dealers have no reason to, and remainers are holding true to the faith, content they will not receive most of the blame if we no deal as a result.

The statement that the deal and no deal are disaster and catastrophe respectively means that anyone else must give up on Brexit at all - Labour members want that, as do most of their MPs, but that seems beyond them taking up as an official position.

OK.

So what happens next?

Will Justing Greening desert the Conservative Party for the TIGgers, and will Remainers looks to put a caretaker "government of national (remainer) unity" in place?

I think he’s right.

Non-starter. Corbyn would quite reasonably insist on leading at alternative administration, which would be unacceptable to any Tory.

RochdalePioneers said:

SNP / Greens / LibDems have the right idea. A continuous session of Parliament until they reach a decision

Shame about the whole no extension bit then.....

Casino_Royale said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

Did I hear right that Theresa's going to address the nation from inside Downing St tonight?

You would probably get more informed washing your hair, it will almost certainly be a 'My Deal or No Deal, nothing has changed' waste of time

Have you had it with her?

If *he* has, she’s finished.

I thought @HYUFD sounded a bit hostile about her?

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

It will never pass. No dealers have no reason to, and remainers are holding true to the faith, content they will not receive most of the blame if we no deal as a result.

The statement that the deal and no deal are disaster and catastrophe respectively means that anyone else must give up on Brexit at all - Labour members want that, as do most of their MPs, but that seems beyond them taking up as an official position.

OK.

So what happens next?

Will Justing Greening desert the Conservative Party for the TIGgers, and will Remainers looks to put a caretaker "government of national (remainer) unity" in place?

Are there enough to put such a government in place?

RoyalBlue said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

It will never pass. No dealers have no reason to, and remainers are holding true to the faith, content they will not receive most of the blame if we no deal as a result.

The statement that the deal and no deal are disaster and catastrophe respectively means that anyone else must give up on Brexit at all - Labour members want that, as do most of their MPs, but that seems beyond them taking up as an official position.

OK.

So what happens next?

Will Justing Greening desert the Conservative Party for the TIGgers, and will Remainers looks to put a caretaker "government of national (remainer) unity" in place?

I think he’s right.

Non-starter. Corbyn would quite reasonably insist on leading at alternative administration, which would be unacceptable to any Tory.

I was referring to kle4.

Not enough ERG and DUP’ers have (or ever will) smell the coffee. And many of them think the coffee isn’t even there to be smelt.

So the Deal won’t pass, and we will end up revoking and remaining.

They will then start blaming people (including me) for the failure of Brexit.

I will do my best to deselect them.

Casino_Royale said:

kjh said:

Casino_Royale said:

eek said:

Casino_Royale said:

IanB2 said:

Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

The counter is spinning happily.

Edit/ and the map of the signatures is interesting.

Why are we getting excited about 60,000 signatures on that?

I could see that easily it topping a million soon from those who hitherto supported a 2nd referendum.

70,000 now....

So what?

Unless the number gets huge I don't think it matters one iota, but it is fun watching you get exasperated by it. It is the People's Vote march all over again. I assume you are not going to challenge the numbers though on this are you?

I’m not exasperated I just think it’s irrelevant.

I certainly will challenge the numbers on the March if I think they’re called out incorrectly, which they almost certainly will be.

Remember: it was 270k marchers last time, not 700k.

Taking the bait eh. Only you thought it was 270K.

Casino_Royale said:

RoyalBlue said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

It will never pass. No dealers have no reason to, and remainers are holding true to the faith, content they will not receive most of the blame if we no deal as a result.

The statement that the deal and no deal are disaster and catastrophe respectively means that anyone else must give up on Brexit at all - Labour members want that, as do most of their MPs, but that seems beyond them taking up as an official position.

OK.

So what happens next?

Will Justing Greening desert the Conservative Party for the TIGgers, and will Remainers looks to put a caretaker "government of national (remainer) unity" in place?

I think he’s right.

Non-starter. Corbyn would quite reasonably insist on leading at alternative administration, which would be unacceptable to any Tory.

I was referring to kle4.

Not enough ERG and DUP’ers have (or ever will) smell the coffee. And many of them think the coffee isn’t even there to be smelt.

So the Deal won’t pass, and we will end up revoking and remaining.

They will then start blaming people (including me) for the failure of Brexit.

I will do my best to deselect them.

The PM will not revoke. I am certain of that.

Besides, it’s not even clear she could, legally speaking.

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

Did I hear right that Theresa's going to address the nation from inside Downing St tonight?

You would probably get more informed washing your hair, it will almost certainly be a 'My Deal or No Deal, nothing has changed' waste of time

Have you had it with her?

I have had it with the ERG and May needs to shift and make it her Deal or revoke and No Brexit not her Deal or No Deal if it is to have a chance of getting through, though if Labour shift on the WA but seek to change the PD it could still have an alternative avenue I suppose

Cable says Corbyn walked out of the talks with the PM because the Tiggers were there?

RoyalBlue said:

Casino_Royale said:

RoyalBlue said:

Casino_Royale said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

It will never pass. No dealers have no reason to, and remainers are holding true to the faith, content they will not receive most of the blame if we no deal as a result.

The statement that the deal and no deal are disaster and catastrophe respectively means that anyone else must give up on Brexit at all - Labour members want that, as do most of their MPs, but that seems beyond them taking up as an official position.

OK.

So what happens next?

Will Justing Greening desert the Conservative Party for the TIGgers, and will Remainers looks to put a caretaker "government of national (remainer) unity" in place?

I think he’s right.

Non-starter. Corbyn would quite reasonably insist on leading at alternative administration, which would be unacceptable to any Tory.

I was referring to kle4.

Not enough ERG and DUP’ers have (or ever will) smell the coffee. And many of them think the coffee isn’t even there to be smelt.

So the Deal won’t pass, and we will end up revoking and remaining.

They will then start blaming people (including me) for the failure of Brexit.

I will do my best to deselect them.

The PM will not revoke. I am certain of that.

Besides, it’s not even clear she could, legally speaking.

The PM has an above average propensity for humiliating herself and performing U-turns, so you can’t rule it out.

https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1108448547500945408

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1108448464462114818

https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1108447950659899393?s=21

LOL!

"PMQs was terrible. Well, obviously it was terrible, it’s always terrible, but today it was terrible in a new and terrible way. It was terrible not just politically but emotionally. The mood was beyond angry. It was desperate. Frantic, stricken, bug-eyed, pleading. The Commons, it seemed, was on the brink of a breakdown."

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/20/no-deal-brexit-beckons-commons-brink-breakdown/

Time for HMQ to close the place down until 1st April and let the poor dears have a rest?

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/paulbranditv/status/1108447950659899393?s=21

He is not fit for office

Blimey, just got in.

We are truly in the sh*t now.

"Not a proper party leader."

The jokes kinda write themselves at this stage.