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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting chances of Commons agreeing deal before March 30th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting chances of Commons agreeing deal before March 30th move up sharply to 43%
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
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I’m not going to say what I think about Dominic Grieve.
Every MP not voting for the deal in the Tory party needs to be expelled and not allowed to stand for us in the election that is inevitably going to follow ratification of the WA, even if it means we lose.
The statement that the deal and no deal are disaster and catastrophe respectively means that anyone else must give up on Brexit at all - Labour members want that, as do most of their MPs, but that seems beyond them taking up as an official position.
Ruling out UK participation in the Euro elections leads to the same result: no extension except to implement Mrs May's deal. No extension for a general election, because that would require us to participate in the Euro elections. No extension for a referendum, for the same reasons.
This statement makes all the UK MPs positions pointless. It really is Mrs May's deal or a no-deal Brexit on 29 March.
Brexit was fun while it lasted. However, an incompetent PM has been unable to reach a deal that is better than Remaining.
The betting on the Deal passing before the deadline seems wildly overdone to me. Besides anything else, if Macron or any of the other EU leaders puts their foot down over the A50 extension then there's no longer time to finish passing all the necessary legislation before the scheduled withdrawal date. Under those circumstances, is Parliament meant to pass the Deal that's it's previously overwhelmingly rejected twice AND put the country into almost immediate, if temporary, violation of its terms because half the rules needed to make it work haven't been written into statute? Or does the Deal, in fact, go out of the window and leave Parliament with a straight choice between Revocation and Hard Brexit?
Can the useless nitwits bring themselves to vote for Revocation under such circumstances, even though the bulk of them think No Deal a catastrophe and most of those have probably been secretly yearning to cancel the whole project for the entirety of the past three years? Would anyone care to wager any money on that contention? I know I wouldn't.
The betting markets might be swinging towards the Deal, but most people thought Remain was going to win on the day of the referendum itself - right up until the point that the results started to come in. Surely the ERG are, in fact, very, very close to winning?
Ruling out UK participation in the Euro elections leads to the same result: no extension except to implement Mrs May's deal. No extension for a general election, because that would require us to participate in the Euro elections. No extension for a referendum, for the same reasons.
This statement makes all the UK MPs positions pointless. It really is Mrs May's deal or a no-deal Brexit on 29 March.
Norway or CU remain possibilities as these are about the final Trade Deal, which is not set in stone like the WA, and indeed are excellent ways to resolve the backstop and other issues.
The WA may get through, but will set a poisonous atmosphere for the next 18 months of discussions, in all parties. Mrs May's coercion tactics will not keep MPs on board for long.
No going back now.
It's deal or no deal.
I doubt whether we'll even renationalise the water industry.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hereford-worcester-47639537
May's Deal = rejected twice why would you go for it now
No Deal = gamble into the great unknown.
The reason to revoke is that the EU won't allow us to extend - that may be enough to justify it.
We then have the EU election and people could use that as a basis for what to do next.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-voters-back-delay-in-new-survey-but-warn-pm-not-to-use-it-to-save-her-broken-deal-a4096516.html
Up to 2 million expected for People's Vote March at the weekend, not at all clear Remain have lost, indeed momentum is moving towards them
Whether that is in reality the only choice for the UK depends on whether you take Tusk at his word. It purports to be their final position. If MPs instead voted for a long extension while rejecting May's surrender, would they really force the UK into the situation which they fear - namely to force us to leave on 30th March in a situation where our hands were untied and we could negotiate a new relationship commencing on 30th March?
The EU is I think trying to force the UK into false choices, aided and abetted by the PM. Will their bluff be called by parliament?
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584
The counter is spinning happily.
Edit/ and the map of the signatures is interesting.
I could see that easily it topping a million soon from those who hitherto supported a 2nd referendum.
..and as others have mentioned, it's also revealing how much the EU seems to want to quickly get the WA inked and signed, as apparently by far the most smoothly and painlessly aligned with its own best interests.
https://youtu.be/hz3RYVsS70Y
So what happens next?
Will Justing Greening desert the Conservative Party for the TIGgers, and will Remainers looks to put a caretaker "government of national (remainer) unity" in place?
From that page
It’s an institution.
Such things matter to me way more than Brexit.
All you have left is the fear.
I certainly will challenge the numbers on the March if I think they’re called out incorrectly, which they almost certainly will be.
Remember: it was 270k marchers last time, not 700k.
Maybe but Farnborough is 20 minutes from me and has decades of aviation history behind it. An institution.
I’m still annoyed (over 20 years on) that they cancelled the Royal Tournament.
Not enough ERG and DUP’ers have (or ever will) smell the coffee. And many of them think the coffee isn’t even there to be smelt.
So the Deal won’t pass, and we will end up revoking and remaining.
They will then start blaming people (including me) for the failure of Brexit.
I will do my best to deselect them.
I would say if she gets the deal through it would be the work of a political mastermind, but I suspect it comes down to luck.
Besides, it’s not even clear she could, legally speaking.
I recall many moons ago, before the referendum, you were asked what the economic effect of Brexit might be. You were one of the view brave enough at the time to hazard a guess and I remember your answer very clearly. You said that for a while, the UK would be like 'Singapore on Speed'. After that, things might get difficult but there would at first be a period of intense, productive economic activity.
Do you stand by that? And if so, when does the SoS period begin?
Or have we had it already?
Would really appreciate your updated comments now.
Thanks.
If the deal does pass, and pass without DUP support, presumably the Gov would lose a VONC?
All sorts of parliamentary and electoral routes to get there.
"PMQs was terrible. Well, obviously it was terrible, it’s always terrible, but today it was terrible in a new and terrible way. It was terrible not just politically but emotionally. The mood was beyond angry. It was desperate. Frantic, stricken, bug-eyed, pleading. The Commons, it seemed, was on the brink of a breakdown."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/20/no-deal-brexit-beckons-commons-brink-breakdown/
Time for HMQ to close the place down until 1st April and let the poor dears have a rest?
We are truly in the sh*t now.
The jokes kinda write themselves at this stage.