politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that TMay will go
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So, Tusk's statement rules out a referendum, one more outcome off the list. Deal, no-deal, or revoke.0
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I wonder if Tusk refers to his speeches as coming straight from the elephant's mouth.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Tusk says June 30th might be OK, but he'll have to check with the others, like.
Oh, conditional upon MV3 passing.
We're doomed, lads.0 -
Tusk has just increased the likelihood of Revoke massively.0
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A stiff drink is called for. A shame this government could not organise a piss up in a brewery.RochdalePioneers said:
I've been saying lets go to the pub for fucking hours.SeanT said:Am I the only PB-er with an odd desire to start drinking in the middle of the afternoon?
This is like Paris a week before the Blitzkrieg. The Bunker in Berlin as the Red Army shells exploded overhead. Gotterdammerung.
It requires gin.
At 6:30 I attend the Free From Food Awards. Its a Free Bar...
If someone had told me, two years ago, that we would be in this position now, I would never have believed it. I assumed the government would be at least competent enough to ensure an orderly transition.
No deal, obviously, cannot be allowed to happen. It might have, had we started making adequate preparation two years ago. Even then it would have been unwise. But to allow it to happen now would be scorched earth. A dereliction of duty.
Theresa. Revoke, then resign, and give your successor a chance to clean up the almighty mess you have made.
Yes, I am aware of the blistering irony that revocation is probably the only way we can "take back control" for now. Revoke, then take as long as necessary to work out a plan for either a workable deal or an orderly transition to no deal, and yes, probably put the final settlement to the people before invoking article 50 again.
It has come to this.
Gin.0 -
Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no dealScott_P said:0 -
Mr. Eagles, no, but I did have the joy of posterior camera at one point.
I have to admit, the most difficult bit was not laughing when the doctor said "You're doing well", which I think is meant to be reassuring but the subtext I got was "You're talented at taking it up the arse".
He reckoned it was a 10" affair, but I think it was 7" at the most.0 -
So I bet May's lectern moment is just going to be more of the same. She'll stand in fron of No. 10 and say "I have told the opposition parties that if my deal passes at the third attempt we will have an extension to sort out the details then Brexit in an orderly fashion. If my deal doesn't pass then we will no deal and you can blame everyone who voted the deal down".0
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From the reports, I'm not clear what he's said.Scott_P said:
That any extension would be conditional on the deal passing?
Or that an extension would be a short one only if the deal passed?0 -
Actually I don't think he quite did that, although it will probably be seen that way. After all we haven't asked for a long extension for the purpose of holding a referendum.Andrew said:So, Tusk's statement rules out a referendum, one more outcome off the list. Deal, no-deal, or revoke.
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Tough message from EU: you're screwed and it's your fault.0
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It's when they jiggle the thing about and say things like 'have a look at that there; no down a bit, no, to your left.'Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, no, but I did have the joy of posterior camera at one point.
I have to admit, the most difficult bit was not laughing when the doctor said "You're doing well", which I think is meant to be reassuring but the subtext I got was "You're talented at taking it up the arse".
He reckoned it was a 10" affair, but I think it was 7" at the most.0 -
Mr Eagles,
I hope it's not a stomach complaint caused by not eating enough pineapple with your Pizza.
We're getting a big build-up now, I hope it's worthwhile (Mrs May not Mr Eagles).0 -
Great commentAnorak said:
"Relatively" non-racist. Like your Nan compared to a chap with a swastika tattoo.JohnLilburne said:
They were supposed to be the non-racist wing of UKIP!Scott_P said:0 -
Indeed, she hasn't.SeanT said:
But she hasn't got the political capital or power to do any of that. She's marooned.TheScreamingEagles said:
Only parliament can collectively choose a Deal, revote, etc.
However, she can now legitimately claim that it's her deal or no deal or revoke - and that the absence of a decision *now* is tantamount to No Deal.0 -
Yes, exactlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Actually I don't think he quite did that, although it will probably be seen that way. After all we haven't asked for a long extension for the purpose of holding a referendum.Andrew said:So, Tusk's statement rules out a referendum, one more outcome off the list. Deal, no-deal, or revoke.
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Tusk's statement is fine. There is no extension to faff around. It's Deal, No Deal, Revoke.0
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Cue for outrage...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47644603
However, this does not deal with possibilities of voter fraud via postal votes.0 -
Cambridge.Roger said:
Hartlepool?Charles said:
Only because they’re hungrySeanT said:
*sad, bitter laughter*Nigel_Foremain said:
It's going to be greatRecidivist said:
Do you remember the discussions on whether or not a successful Brexit would bring an electoral dividend or not?Harris_Tweed said:God. Do you remember the days when everyone was sweating about whether the deal would be agreed at the September or December summit, in case there wasn't enough time to sort the practicalities out?
Happy, carefree times.
When we are eating the last rat in the freezing wastes just outside Reading I shall tell my grandkids that I voted Leave as a bit of a joke, on a sunny Primrose Hill afternoon, happy in the knowledge that Remain would win.
Then my grandchildren will kill me.
Think of it as your final service.
(In happier news we have just opened our first office outside London)
(The Partners cover the West Country, the Summer Country and Hampshire well enough from their homes)0 -
I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.0
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This does put labour in a little bit of a bind. The game of chicken will finish one way or another0
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I would say that ivorything he says, he says for a reason. Well, that is what I herd.Endillion said:
I wonder if Tusk refers to his speeches as coming straight from the elephant's mouth.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Tusk says June 30th might be OK, but he'll have to check with the others, like.
Oh, conditional upon MV3 passing.
We're doomed, lads.0 -
And she would be right to say that.solarflare said:So I bet May's lectern moment is just going to be more of the same. She'll stand in fron of No. 10 and say "I have told the opposition parties that if my deal passes at the third attempt we will have an extension to sort out the details then Brexit in an orderly fashion. If my deal doesn't pass then we will no deal and you can blame everyone who voted the deal down".
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The Saturday march might turn into a massive Revoke march now. Not what anyone would have foreseen.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no dealScott_P said:
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Tusk & Macron have been very helpful to Theresa May today.Sean_F said:Tusk's statement is fine. There is no extension to faff around. It's Deal, No Deal, Revoke.
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You ever been inside a Turkish prison?Gardenwalker said:I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
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Yes, Labour will have to CHOOSE. Sign up to TMay's Deal, or demand revocation/referendum, or be seen as pushing us over the cliff.Slackbladder said:This does put labour in a little bit of a bind. The game of chicken will finish one way or another
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It won't make any difference unless more than 17.4 million turn up.WhisperingOracle said:
The Saturday march might turn into a massive Revoke march now. Not what anyone would have foreseen.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no dealScott_P said:
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This is political carnage. Those of you with a lot of money on the markets must be wearing your brown trousers 24/7.0
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It is that already. No one who supports Leave wants a second referendumWhisperingOracle said:
The Saturday march might turn into a massive Revoke march now. Not what anyone would have foreseen.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no dealScott_P said:0 -
Especially with the big People's Vote march coming this weekend.... no pressure Jeremy...SeanT said:
Yes, Labour will have to CHOOSE. Sign up to TMay's Deal, or demand revocation/referendum, or be seen as pushing us over the cliff.Slackbladder said:This does put labour in a little bit of a bind. The game of chicken will finish one way or another
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So ultimately it will be the EU that forces us to Exit?
Oh, the irony.0 -
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What are the chances this response was agreed verbally before May sent the letter?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no dealScott_P said:0 -
You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.Gardenwalker said:I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
Nervous?
Yes.
First time?
No, I've been nervous lots of times.0 -
I really don't know why they are surprised. Do they not follow politics?Scott_P said:0 -
Surely, you can't be serious?Gardenwalker said:I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
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Looks like it's time for MPs to piss or get off the pot. This is the end of the road. deal or no-deal.
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It has changed my mind about TM handing over to Lidington. I now think she may just do thisTissue_Price said:
Tusk & Macron have been very helpful to Theresa May today.Sean_F said:Tusk's statement is fine. There is no extension to faff around. It's Deal, No Deal, Revoke.
Amazing if so0 -
Mr. Freggles, well... some of us backed a second referendum at 6.5, and no second referendum at 1.75. On the betting front, I'm relaxed.0
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Correct. Tusk has left open the possibility of a longer extension but it will need to be negotiated based on some collective decision the UK has made. The short one is only to pass the WA. This means the EU is no longer driven by concerns of No Deal. Either they think it won't happen, No Deal will concentrate UK minds, or the EU no longer cares if there is No Deal or not.SeanT said:
Does it tho? If we came back and asked for an extension to have a referendum, I still think they would agree.Andrew said:So, Tusk's statement rules out a referendum, one more outcome off the list. Deal, no-deal, or revoke.
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Yes. They are even stupider than I thought, and I was already incredibly surprised by the depths of their stupidity.Richard_Nabavi said:
I really don't know why they are surprised. Do they not follow politics?Scott_P said:0 -
I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.Anorak said:
You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.Gardenwalker said:I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
Nervous?
Yes.
First time?
No, I've been nervous lots of times.0 -
On a serious note, Geoffrey Cox managed more in negotiations with the EU than all the Brexit Secretaries combined since 2016. Worth a shout as a future FS if Hunt were to move on.Nigel_Foremain said:
What would the world think of us then? Mr Thicky would make the most ridiculous foreign minister since, well, Boris Johnson!OldKingCole said:Government of National Unity? Jezza Foreign Sec. Cable Chancellor.
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Actually once again Nigel is incorrect. I joined UKIP back when it first formed under Alan Sked. Unlike Sked I stayed in after Farage took over and then left once Cameron announced the referendum was on. They were a useful vehicle to achieve a goal and once that goal was achieved they became pointless. So I have not been a UKIP member for almost 4years.Martin_Kinsella said:
Oh dear, someone has to support them I guess. Does he like Tommeh too ?
Now since Nigel is both fairly new to PB and also clearly suffers from some deficiencies in intelligence he can be forgiven for not knowing this and also for not knowing I advocate unlimited migration. Something I suspect might stir some concerns in his closed mind.0 -
We really do have some very unremarkable people on parliament. I know that is a somewhat arsey thing to say, but it is true. Whenever I hear Steve Barclay I think he is going to try and sell me some double glazing.0
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I know you do not like the deal but the collective sigh of relief if it goes through next week will be heard throughout the nationGardenwalker said:I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
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If there could be a counter-leave march and some decent facial recognition software, there's a fighting opportunity of identifying most of the ****s in Britain on one day.WhisperingOracle said:
The Saturday march might turn into a massive Revoke march now. Not what anyone would have foreseen.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no dealScott_P said:0 -
Nah.....El_Capitano said:Tusk has just increased the likelihood of Revoke massively.
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Oh, wasn't reported well. Tusk said no _short_ extension if MV3 fails
So plausibly MV3 fails > emergency EU Council > 2yr extension offered (which would also trigger May's resignation). This might not be spelled out in advance though, so as to pressure MPs to pass MV3.
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If it comes to it, will swathes of opposition abstain, knowing that if they do so in large numbers they will probably avoid no deal but not be seen to back May's deal?0
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Labour MPs are indeed now the pressure point.solarflare said:If it comes to it, will swathes of opposition abstain, knowing that if they do so in large numbers they will probably avoid no deal but not be seen to back May's deal?
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Almost certainly, it could not get made these days. Too many interest groups would be outraged.Gardenwalker said:
I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.Anorak said:
You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.Gardenwalker said:I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
Nervous?
Yes.
First time?
No, I've been nervous lots of times.0 -
This isn't the thing you want to risk being close.solarflare said:If it comes to it, will swathes of opposition abstain, knowing that if they do so in large numbers they will probably avoid no deal but not be seen to back May's deal?
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Many have failed to be positive so far; and I fail to see that enough will change.matt said:
MPs are paid to take decisions. Positive decisions not just "I don't like it, wah, wah" like some shitty-nappied toddler. Now's their opportunity.Sean_F said:Tusk's statement is fine. There is no extension to faff around. It's Deal, No Deal, Revoke.
British politics over the last two years has been like watching a slow-motion car crash between four cars, each being driven by three clowns who are all trying not to steer towards the other cars. Yet the cars are inexorably heading towards each other.
Some want the crash. Some don't want to crash. Some want a Schrodinger's Clown crash-nocrash alternative. But they're crashing nonetheless.0 -
Maybe. That was what many months ago I expected would eventually happen, but there hasn't been any sign of it so far.solarflare said:If it comes to it, will swathes of opposition abstain, knowing that if they do so in large numbers they will probably avoid no deal but not be seen to back May's deal?
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Many Remainers, though not all, were willing to accept Leave winning in a second referendum, if that's what happened. Now the polarities are much starker.Sean_F said:
It is that already. No one who supports Leave wants a second referendumWhisperingOracle said:
The Saturday march might turn into a massive Revoke march now. Not what anyone would have foreseen.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no dealScott_P said:0 -
Tusk has cover for not talking about any longer extension because TM hasn't asked for one. Keeps up the flimsy pretence that the UK's settled view is that given by its government.
This allows TM to wheel in the Brexit-friendly cabinet ministers and say "tell your boys to wind their necks in and get behind this. I've put my head on the block by not going down the can-kicking route.. but if MV3 falls, I'm off and Liddington will head to Brussels like a shot asking for longer for "
Two outcomes:
Head of steam builds up for cabinet and Tory unity, Bercow is overturned and MV3 passes on Monday.
Half the cabinet resign; MPs continue to sit on their hands and we No Deal on Friday night.0 -
I would not be surprisedJohnLilburne said:
What are the chances this response was agreed verbally before May sent the letter?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no dealScott_P said:0 -
Tusk has given the Labour party 'an offer it can't refuse'.
"If you don't vote for the EU deal, you're voting for No-deal. On your own heads be it."0 -
A GE would be the worst thing right now. It would solve nothing and create a huge list of new problems.Scott_P said:0 -
All the nonsense about where's our letter, its late, its now too late etc was clearly bollocks. Even CH4 news were saying last night the EU officials weren't expecting the letter today i.e. people were clearly talking behind the scenes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not be surprisedJohnLilburne said:
What are the chances this response was agreed verbally before May sent the letter?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Indeed and Bercow cannot stop MV3 now without causing no dealScott_P said:0 -
Having now heard what he said, I think it is ambiguous - perhaps deliberately so.Andrew said:Oh, wasn't reported well. Tusk said no _short_ extension if MV3 fails
So plausibly MV3 fails > emergency EU Council > 2yr extension offered (which would also trigger May's resignation). This might not be spelled out in advance though, so as to pressure MPs to pass MV3.0 -
This seems apposite:Anorak said:
You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.Gardenwalker said:I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
Nervous?
Yes.
First time?
No, I've been nervous lots of times.
"There's no reason to become alarmed, and we hope you'll enjoy the rest of your flight. By the way, is there anyone on board who knows how to fly a plane?"
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Actually its Gavin Williamson and his fireplaces that come fastest to my mindTyke said:We really do have some very unremarkable people on parliament. I know that is a somewhat arsey thing to say, but it is true. Whenever I hear Steve Barclay I think he is going to try and sell me some double glazing.
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Would it be a huge shock if May doesn't use that as extra "leverage". Right numpties, its my deal next week or I'm calling a GE and buggering off...Slackbladder said:
A GE would be the worst thing right now. It would solve nothing and create a huge list of new problems.Scott_P said:0 -
Won't the DUP immediately call a VONC if May's deal passes MV3?0
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Mr. Slackbladder, agree a GE would be daft.
Given recent history, that alone makes it a credible possibility.0 -
Not if they are on boardAlasdair said:Won't the DUP immediately call a VONC if May's deal passes MV3?
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Like Brexit...Slackbladder said:It would solve nothing and create a huge list of new problems.
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MV3 to pass about to become favourite on Betfair.
Tough for Labour now.0 -
Do the numbers even stack up for MV3 passing?Alasdair said:Won't the DUP immediately call a VONC if May's deal passes MV3?
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I suspect the British electorate, or many of them, will be relieved now. It's been too like a Mack Sennett black and white film with the MPs whizzing around in jerky motion and achieving nothing.0
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GoodAndrew said:MV3 to pass about to become favourite on Betfair.
Tough for Labour now.0 -
"Have you seen a grown man naked?" would be on the cutting room floor, for sure!Sean_F said:
Almost certainly, it could not get made these days. Too many interest groups would be outraged.Gardenwalker said:
I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.Anorak said:
You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.Gardenwalker said:I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
Nervous?
Yes.
First time?
No, I've been nervous lots of times.0 -
Some good news:
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/11083308681568378880 -
Well anyway, the betting markets don't seem to believe a long extension has been ruled out.
If you add up the Betfair options of leaving by June and revoking, they only come to about 65%.0 -
Its weird you have to really going searching for this news on the BBC website....down the bottom of the business section.Morris_Dancer said:Some good news:
witter.com/AFP/status/11083308681568378880 -
Mr. Mark, aye. The professionally offended would need to buy another bucket for all their tears.0
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An ex-UKIP member accusing someone of having a closed mind, or questioning their intelligence is hilarious!Richard_Tyndall said:
Actually once again Nigel is incorrect. I joined UKIP back when it first formed under Alan Sked. Unlike Sked I stayed in after Farage took over and then left once Cameron announced the referendum was on. They were a useful vehicle to achieve a goal and once that goal was achieved they became pointless. So I have not been a UKIP member for almost 4years.Martin_Kinsella said:
Oh dear, someone has to support them I guess. Does he like Tommeh too ?
Now since Nigel is both fairly new to PB and also clearly suffers from some deficiencies in intelligence he can be forgiven for not knowing this and also for not knowing I advocate unlimited migration. Something I suspect might stir some concerns in his closed mind.
I used to find you irritating, but now I do enjoy your contributions as they keep confirming my suspicions of how dumb you have to be to be a UKIP supporter. Now you admit you were a member. Fantastic. Did you have little rallies where you secretly dressed up? Practice sessions where you attempted to talk about Europe without getting red in the face or rolling your eyes?
The really interesting thing about your post is that you said you joined under Alan Sked. Sked openly accused Farage of being a racist (I am sure even you can use Google) and yet you remained part of a party led by a man accused of being a racist, and who has not sued Sked for what he said. You must have known about that. Nice one! Keep taking the tablets Richard. The great thing about freedom of speech is that we get to see those with unpleasant views crawl out from under their stones and show themselves for what they are.
PS I have been following PB since the days of "Tim". I gave up contributing for a while and then came back. Sorry you have bene too dumb to work that one out0 -
Errr....someone want to point out if the MV passes, it passes. No backies.Scott_P said:0 -
Somebody on here the other day suggested May sends the crappiest emptiest extension request letter, thus forcing the EU to have no option but to reject it. Then she pummels MV3 through next week at 11.59pm metaphorically speaking given the alternative is No Deal.
I think that's just what has happened today.0 -
No doubt the eulogising of Theresa May will also begin - she will be lauded almost to the point of sainthood and all talk of her resigning will be forgotten and indeed the Mail and the Express will urge her to remain until the next GE if not beyond.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I know you do not like the deal but the collective sigh of relief if it goes through next week will be heard throughout the nationGardenwalker said:I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
I'm still to see how Bercow's ruling can be overturned but IF MV3 comes and is again defeated the ERG will have won so they are still very much in the game and their "victory" is still within their grasp.
One thing Tusk has done is ensure the EU won't carry the can if we go to No Deal - they will be able to say we gave Theresa May every chance to get the WA through the Commons.0 -
How many Labour switchers are going to be needed?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Do the numbers even stack up for MV3 passing?Alasdair said:Won't the DUP immediately call a VONC if May's deal passes MV3?
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May's Shit Deal will pass. You can quote me on this.....0
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Also the helpful woman translating Jive for the stewardess.MarqueeMark said:
"Have you seen a grown man naked?" would be on the cutting room floor, for sure!Sean_F said:
Almost certainly, it could not get made these days. Too many interest groups would be outraged.Gardenwalker said:
I do believe it is the funniest film ever made.Anorak said:
You know what, I'm going to watch that tonight. Never fails to make me laugh.Gardenwalker said:I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
Nervous?
Yes.
First time?
No, I've been nervous lots of times.0 -
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A vote to revoke A50 in the Commons next week would not carry legal weight, but I think it would be impossible to ignore. I think that May would have to resign, and hand over to someone prepared to do so.CarlottaVance said:
But, I don't think there's a majority to do so. If 334 MP's oppose a second referendum, there must be a larger number who oppose revocation, without one.
So, that leaves Deal or No Deal.0
This discussion has been closed.