politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not before 2022 now joint favourite with Q2 2019 for when Brex
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not before 2022 now joint favourite with Q2 2019 for when Brexit happens
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange
Comments
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First.0
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Brexit was fun whilst it lasted.0
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Second like Leave!0
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If not before 20022 is as close to never as this market allows then it makes sense it would be joint favourite.0
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There is still £thousands available on BFE that the UK wont leave with no deal on 29/3 at 1.140
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FPT if there's a 9 month extension and Britain leaves at the clock strikes midnight to bring in 1 Jan 2020 then that would probably legally be defined in British time as 23:00 on 31 December - which is midnight at the start of 1 Jan 2020 in Brussels.
If Britain leaves then who wins the bet between SeanT and WilliamGlenn?0 -
Theresa and Jezza will deliver Brexit somehow.
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Morally WG should win, but the difference between UK and EU time may create some work for our friend from Japan. Unless the bet specified the time zone.Philip_Thompson said:FPT if there's a 9 month extension and Britain leaves at the clock strikes midnight to bring in 1 Jan 2020 then that would probably legally be defined in British time as 23:00 on 31 December - which is midnight at the start of 1 Jan 2020 in Brussels.
If Britain leaves then who wins the bet between SeanT and WilliamGlenn?0 -
Well we do know he is far more adept at shifting his position for starters.tyson said:I think either May has been terribly advised...or she is unwell...or a combination of the two...
This is terrible for me to say, but I probably think Boris Johnson would have done a much better job as leader 3 years ago....
I thought someone else, maybe Davis (not that I am a fan) should have taken over when Chequers was rejected. At least attempt a different approach.0 -
BBC4 currently has a documentary about content moderation on Facebook and alike.0
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No morals where money is concerned!IanB2 said:
Morally WG should win, but the difference between UK and EU time may create some work for our friend from Japan. Unless the bet specified the time zone.Philip_Thompson said:FPT if there's a 9 month extension and Britain leaves at the clock strikes midnight to bring in 1 Jan 2020 then that would probably legally be defined in British time as 23:00 on 31 December - which is midnight at the start of 1 Jan 2020 in Brussels.
If Britain leaves then who wins the bet between SeanT and WilliamGlenn?0 -
I'd argue morally Sean should win as we'd have made it out an hour to spare, and we are on a British site so British timezone should apply.IanB2 said:
Morally WG should win, but the difference between UK and EU time may create some work for our friend from Japan. Unless the bet specified the time zone.Philip_Thompson said:FPT if there's a 9 month extension and Britain leaves at the clock strikes midnight to bring in 1 Jan 2020 then that would probably legally be defined in British time as 23:00 on 31 December - which is midnight at the start of 1 Jan 2020 in Brussels.
If Britain leaves then who wins the bet between SeanT and WilliamGlenn?
Does sound like edmundintokyo could be needed though.0 -
fpt for Sean F
I've just read the most stupendous piece of general military history/socio-geopolitics, with added Darwinism, Ian Morris's: WAR
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00IOLFGEC/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1
Every page is full of startling insights, or the most gruesome yet compelling factoids. One of my favourites is about Genghis Khan.
We all know that the Mongols were hideously brutal - exterminating every living THING in conquered cities, down to the last cats, dogs and hens, but I never knew THIS: during a war, they would take the fat out of the slain corpses of their enemies, hurl it at the walls of enemy houses and buildings, then set fire to the human fat, thereby burning down the cities.
100% recommended. One of the best books of general history I have read in a decade.0 -
20022 is looking realistic at this ratekle4 said:If not before 20022 is as close to never as this market allows then it makes sense it would be joint favourite.
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Having read the previous discussion between the two I decided it would be a waste if my time to spell out why Richard is right and JohnL isn't._Anazina_ said:R
It’s this sort of high octane, pointed debate that I come to PB for.MaxPB said:
No it's not.DecrepitJohnL said:
What you claim is just wrong.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are being (I presume deliberately) obtuse. Yes of course the UK's lack of proper banking supervision was not the cause of the world financial crisis (although it was probably a factor). That is not the point - the point is that the impact on the UK was particularly bad because of Brown's destruction of the supervisory system. Can you really not understand the distinction?DecrepitJohnL said:
The crucial market change was in the degree of interlinking (and increased leverage) thanks to the exponential growth of derivatives markets. LTCM's collapse should perhaps, with hindsight, have rung more bells. Tripartite supervision was and is irrelevant to the global financial crisis as was RBS/ABNAmro.Richard_Nabavi said:
LOL, you have comprehensively missed the point. Yes, exactly, there were bank crises under the BoE's supervision. In history there have always been bank crises from time to time, in all countries. But in the UK, it was only under Brown's tripartite structure that they weren't prevented from causing systemic danger to the banking system. In particular, you have completely ignored the crucial example, which was the fact that it was no-one's job to consider whether the ABN Amro deal was a danger to the banking system. And that certainly had a massive impact on the degree to which we were clobbered by the global financial crisis.DecrepitJohnL said:Nonsense on stilts. One speech by Peter Lilley but then the Conservatives were on board if not running ahead (and there was a technical reason I've since forgotten why the system had to change -- something to do with a conflict of interest in one of the markets iirc). Nor is it true that there were no bank crises under BoE: BCCI, Johnson Matthey and Barings spring to mind. And there have been larger scandals since 2010 such as UBS.
But none of this matters because it had sod all to do with the global financial crisis.0 -
From The Times (£):
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.0 -
I blame Ed Miliband.....for being a crap leader, and then for paving the way for an even crapper leader...TheScreamingEagles said:Brexit was fun whilst it lasted.
Brexit has showed that the UK needs a solid Labour opposition...during Labour's leave of absence this period has been pervaded by Tory self indulgence on Europe which shows no sign of abating...
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You are blaming Labour for the Tories being crap? That's what I call a partisan spin on things.tyson said:
I blame Ed Miliband.....for being a crap leader, and then for paving the way for an even crapper leader...TheScreamingEagles said:Brexit was fun whilst it lasted.
Brexit has showed that the UK needs a solid Labour opposition...during Labour's leave of absence this period has been pervaded by Tory self indulgence on Europe which shows no sign of abating...0 -
FPT, I know far more about the Mongols than I wish, but I was not aware of that hideous fact.
As it happens, the Mongols were really no more cruel than their Jin and Khwarezmian enemies. They were all appalling to civilians and prisoners.
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If the second question was about who replaced the mayor in the event he was removed it seems very odd he was allowed to be an option on it in the first place. It's not like allowing someone to stand in a by-election caused by a recall petition even.IanB2 said:From The Times (£):
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.
But then we've had some odd ones, like allowing ineligible candidates so that when they win, the second place person wins by default.0 -
They needed AV.IanB2 said:From The Times (£):
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.0 -
Fall River is where Lizzie Borden allegedly killed her parentskle4 said:
If the second question was about who replaced the mayor in the event he was removed it seems very odd he was allowed to be an option on it in the first place. It's not like allowing someone to stand in a by-election caused by a recall petition even.IanB2 said:From The Times (£):
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.
But then we've had some odd ones, like allowing ineligible candidates so that when they win, the second place person wins by default.0 -
Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!0
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Brexit needed a politician...a self serving narcissist who could carve one way way, then the other, pitching there, criss crossing here, deftly switching...with few scruples or principles.....instead we got Theresa Maykle4 said:
Well we do know he is far more adept at shifting his position for starters.tyson said:I think either May has been terribly advised...or she is unwell...or a combination of the two...
This is terrible for me to say, but I probably think Boris Johnson would have done a much better job as leader 3 years ago....
I thought someone else, maybe Davis (not that I am a fan) should have taken over when Chequers was rejected. At least attempt a different approach.
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That’s a fair point. I would like to think they would be gentlemen in that scenario and shake on the draw.Philip_Thompson said:FPT if there's a 9 month extension and Britain leaves at the clock strikes midnight to bring in 1 Jan 2020 then that would probably legally be defined in British time as 23:00 on 31 December - which is midnight at the start of 1 Jan 2020 in Brussels.
If Britain leaves then who wins the bet between SeanT and WilliamGlenn?0 -
There is an untold part of the ABN Amro / RBS story which is rather more significant. There was criminality at the heart of it and the authorities were warned about this long long before September 2008. Regardless of what type of supervisory system exists, nothing can make up for a supervisor or regulator which fails to follow up on or act on warnings given.MaxPB said:
Having read the previous discussion between the two I decided it would be a waste if my time to spell out why Richard is right and JohnL isn't._Anazina_ said:R
It’s this sort of high octane, pointed debate that I come to PB for.MaxPB said:
No it's not.DecrepitJohnL said:
What you claim is just wrong.Richard_Nabavi said:
You are being (I presume deliberately) obtuse. Yes of course the UK's lack of proper banking supervision was not the cause of the world financial crisis (although it was probably a factor). That is not the point - the point is that the impact on the UK was particularly bad because of Brown's destruction of the supervisory system. Can you really not understand the distinction?DecrepitJohnL said:
The crucial market change was in the degree of interlinking (and increased leverage) thanks to the exponential growth of derivatives markets. LTCM's collapse should perhaps, with hindsight, have rung more bells. Tripartite supervision was and is irrelevant to the global financial crisis as was RBS/ABNAmro.Richard_Nabavi said:
LOL, you have comprehensively missed the point. Yes, exactly, there were bank crises under the BoE's supervision. In history there have always been bank crises from time to time, in all countries. But in the UK, it was only under Brown's tripartite structure that they weren't prevented from causing systemic danger to the banking system. In particular, you have completely ignored the crucial example, which was the fact that it was no-one's job to consider whether the ABN Amro deal was a danger to the banking system. And that certainly had a massive impact on the degree to which we were clobbered by the global financial crisis.DecrepitJohnL said:
The RBS disaster could have been averted. It should have been averted. It would have been averted had the regulators asked some pretty obvious and basic questions. The Dutch regulators were aware but were unable to do anything. The British regulators had their heads in the sand and their only contribution was to write a report on the disaster which managed not to mention their own inglorious role in the whole affair.0 -
Maybe the same will happen in Peterborough.IanB2 said:From The Times (£):
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.0 -
The same AV rejected by the UK voters by 68% to 32% in 2011?TheScreamingEagles said:
They needed AV.IanB2 said:From The Times (£):
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.
That AV? -1 -
Having just listened to Katya Adler, BBC Europe correspondent and one of the best on the subject of brexit, she confirms the frustration and dismay throughout the EU 27 with mixed views on options for an extension.
An important point she made is that on any extension beyond the end of June, the UK would be required to put in place the legislation to take part in the EU elections by 21st April as that is the cut off date across Europe to confirm candidates.
I just cannot see that passing and without it the EU could not allow the UK to be a member as all their subsquent legislation would be voted by an illegitimate EU Parliament
Oh boy, is this complex and a mess
She added that the 27 are considering a final brexit meeting on the 28th March, the day before we leave on the 29th (are supposed to leave) to no doubt confirm extension or even no deal !!!!0 -
There’s a pizza worse than a pizza with pineapple on it.
Papa John's is launching a Marmite stuffed-crust pizza
https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/worklife/a26866745/papa-johns-marmite-stuffed-crust-pizza/0 -
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Without a Labour opposition the Tories have been allowed to indulge in their favourite hobby-infighting over Europe- and all this whilst they are in Govt doing sod all else.Recidivist said:
You are blaming Labour for the Tories being crap? That's what I call a partisan spin on things.tyson said:
I blame Ed Miliband.....for being a crap leader, and then for paving the way for an even crapper leader...TheScreamingEagles said:Brexit was fun whilst it lasted.
Brexit has showed that the UK needs a solid Labour opposition...during Labour's leave of absence this period has been pervaded by Tory self indulgence on Europe which shows no sign of abating...
So yes I am blaming Labour for the Tories for being absolutely fucking useless on a profoundly monumental level
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You on the other hand look at perhaps 10 a second - so 10*60*60*24 - roughly a million.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
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I meant more the fact the sheer volume of horrendous shit they are having to wade through.Omnium said:
You on the other hand look at perhaps 10 a second - so 10*60*60*24 - roughly a million.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
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Blunt beheadings...FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
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Papa John's is already far too salty.TheScreamingEagles said:There’s a pizza worse than a pizza with pineapple on it.
Papa John's is launching a Marmite stuffed-crust pizza
https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/worklife/a26866745/papa-johns-marmite-stuffed-crust-pizza/
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Would be fair._Anazina_ said:
That’s a fair point. I would like to think they would be gentlemen in that scenario and shake on the draw.Philip_Thompson said:FPT if there's a 9 month extension and Britain leaves at the clock strikes midnight to bring in 1 Jan 2020 then that would probably legally be defined in British time as 23:00 on 31 December - which is midnight at the start of 1 Jan 2020 in Brussels.
If Britain leaves then who wins the bet between SeanT and WilliamGlenn?0 -
Mike Gapes
Verified account
@MikeGapes
Follow Follow @MikeGapes
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So despite the unanimous support of my @CommonsForeign colleagues I have been purged by a vote of the House 199-134. Government had free vote. Labour were whipped. Thank you to those Labour MPs who defied the whip. This is a sad day for the independence of Select Committees.
SOUR GAPES!!!0 -
You think tyson is a partisan Tory?Recidivist said:
You are blaming Labour for the Tories being crap? That's what I call a partisan spin on things.tyson said:
I blame Ed Miliband.....for being a crap leader, and then for paving the way for an even crapper leader...TheScreamingEagles said:Brexit was fun whilst it lasted.
Brexit has showed that the UK needs a solid Labour opposition...during Labour's leave of absence this period has been pervaded by Tory self indulgence on Europe which shows no sign of abating...0 -
One could quite credibly argue that driving points matter.Sean_F said:
Maybe the same will happen in Peterborough.IanB2 said:From The Times (£):
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.
After all without Chris Huhne's missus- he would have been LD leader at the 2015 election and we wouldn't be immersed now in Brexshit..
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Most of the "horrendous shit" list is just us smiling with our kids. They will set a low bar in that they don't want to miss stuff, but equally most things they look at are innocuous.FrancisUrquhart said:
I meant more the fact the sheer volume of horrendous shit they are having to wade through.Omnium said:
You on the other hand look at perhaps 10 a second - so 10*60*60*24 - roughly a million.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
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On their profits they should employ a few more serfs.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
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The Tory implosion I personally would welcome as long overdue before a realignment, the chaotic indecision and no-deal planning .. maybe not so much.williamglenn said:0 -
If the timezone wasn't specified I'd assume it meant whatever time British time was at the timeIanB2 said:
Morally WG should win, but the difference between UK and EU time may create some work for our friend from Japan. Unless the bet specified the time zone.Philip_Thompson said:FPT if there's a 9 month extension and Britain leaves at the clock strikes midnight to bring in 1 Jan 2020 then that would probably legally be defined in British time as 23:00 on 31 December - which is midnight at the start of 1 Jan 2020 in Brussels.
If Britain leaves then who wins the bet between SeanT and WilliamGlenn?0 -
Will it? How many pictures of smiling with kids are being reported to moderators?Omnium said:
Most of the "horrendous shit" list is just us smiling with our kids. They will set a low bar in that they don't want to miss stuff, but equally most things they look at are innocuous.FrancisUrquhart said:
I meant more the fact the sheer volume of horrendous shit they are having to wade through.Omnium said:
You on the other hand look at perhaps 10 a second - so 10*60*60*24 - roughly a million.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
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Not according to this documentary. Remember machines have already gone through all of it and only stuff it doesn't like the look of it gets passed to the mods.Omnium said:
Most of the "horrendous shit" list is just us smiling with our kids. They will set a low bar in that they don't want to miss stuff, but equally most things they look at are innocuous.FrancisUrquhart said:
I meant more the fact the sheer volume of horrendous shit they are having to wade through.Omnium said:
You on the other hand look at perhaps 10 a second - so 10*60*60*24 - roughly a million.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
Facebook has long since learned who you and your kids are and so won't get flagged.0 -
So that'd be a Sean win? Though only narrowly so?edmundintokyo said:
If the timezone wasn't specified I'd assume it meant whatever time British time was at the timeIanB2 said:
Morally WG should win, but the difference between UK and EU time may create some work for our friend from Japan. Unless the bet specified the time zone.Philip_Thompson said:FPT if there's a 9 month extension and Britain leaves at the clock strikes midnight to bring in 1 Jan 2020 then that would probably legally be defined in British time as 23:00 on 31 December - which is midnight at the start of 1 Jan 2020 in Brussels.
If Britain leaves then who wins the bet between SeanT and WilliamGlenn?0 -
Replying to Sandpit from this morning about retail sales.
This is the ONS data for retail sales volume from predominantly non-food stores ie not supermarkets and not internet but the High Street and shopping centre businesses which are often in the news for going bankrupt:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/retailindustry/timeseries/eapv/drsi
Between 2013 and 2018 sales volume increased by 18%, between 2003 and 2018 sales volume increased by 41% and between 1988 (the Lawson Boom era of yuppies and Loadsamoney) and 2018 sales volume increased by 124%.
There might be many people and many retail businesses struggling but equally there are many people and many retail businesses doing very well.0 -
Not as simple as a minister just doing it then. Thank goodness no hurdles will be placed in front of any other aspects of this.rottenborough said:0 -
Just moderated one of the most iconic war photos of all time !0
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I think so. We'll have to dig out the post with the exact terms.Philip_Thompson said:
So that'd be a Sean win? Though only narrowly so?edmundintokyo said:
If the timezone wasn't specified I'd assume it meant whatever time British time was at the timeIanB2 said:
Morally WG should win, but the difference between UK and EU time may create some work for our friend from Japan. Unless the bet specified the time zone.Philip_Thompson said:FPT if there's a 9 month extension and Britain leaves at the clock strikes midnight to bring in 1 Jan 2020 then that would probably legally be defined in British time as 23:00 on 31 December - which is midnight at the start of 1 Jan 2020 in Brussels.
If Britain leaves then who wins the bet between SeanT and WilliamGlenn?
Let's hope it's not a 9 month extension...0 -
Is there a BF book on a Peelite split happening this month?WhisperingOracle said:
The Tory implosion I personally would welcome as long overdue before a realignment, the chaotic indecision and no-deal planning .. maybe not so much.williamglenn said:0 -
They've got Nick Clegg.Foxy said:
On their profits they should employ a few more serfs.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
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Suppose there are 10k bad pictures in 10mPhilip_Thompson said:
Will it? How many pictures of smiling with kids are being reported to moderators?Omnium said:
Most of the "horrendous shit" list is just us smiling with our kids. They will set a low bar in that they don't want to miss stuff, but equally most things they look at are innocuous.FrancisUrquhart said:
I meant more the fact the sheer volume of horrendous shit they are having to wade through.Omnium said:
You on the other hand look at perhaps 10 a second - so 10*60*60*24 - roughly a million.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
They have a machine that works out what looks bad. We finish up with perhaps 8k bad in 25k.
They're going to look at mostly ok photos, and that's even assuming that the degree to which the algorithms can discern good from bad is amazing.
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Oh FFS what did he think was going to happen? Insert TSE Brexit/divorce analogy here.bigjohnowls said:Mike Gapes
Verified account
@MikeGapes
Follow Follow @MikeGapes
More
So despite the unanimous support of my @CommonsForeign colleagues I have been purged by a vote of the House 199-134. Government had free vote. Labour were whipped. Thank you to those Labour MPs who defied the whip. This is a sad day for the independence of Select Committees.
SOUR GAPES!!!0 -
I'd have to check the details but it sounds like it.Philip_Thompson said:
So that'd be a Sean win? Though only narrowly so?edmundintokyo said:
If the timezone wasn't specified I'd assume it meant whatever time British time was at the timeIanB2 said:
Morally WG should win, but the difference between UK and EU time may create some work for our friend from Japan. Unless the bet specified the time zone.Philip_Thompson said:FPT if there's a 9 month extension and Britain leaves at the clock strikes midnight to bring in 1 Jan 2020 then that would probably legally be defined in British time as 23:00 on 31 December - which is midnight at the start of 1 Jan 2020 in Brussels.
If Britain leaves then who wins the bet between SeanT and WilliamGlenn?0 -
Didn't Clegg beat Huhne for the LibDem leadership in 2008 only because a postal strike delayed the return of postal ballots ?tyson said:
One could quite credibly argue that driving points matter.Sean_F said:
Maybe the same will happen in Peterborough.IanB2 said:From The Times (£):
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.
After all without Chris Huhne's missus- he would have been LD leader at the 2015 election and we wouldn't be immersed now in Brexshit..
I wonder if Huhne would have been so willing to betray students as Clegg was.0 -
As I read this, it means that the SI must be laid (and thus our exit date known) by Monday. Since the WA won't be voted on until after Monday, that makes a short extension very problematic.rottenborough said:0 -
If their moderators were having to look at 8k "bad" images a day I'd struggle to reconcile that as being "mostly ok" even if that's mathematically correct.Omnium said:
Suppose there are 10k bad pictures in 10mPhilip_Thompson said:
Will it? How many pictures of smiling with kids are being reported to moderators?Omnium said:
Most of the "horrendous shit" list is just us smiling with our kids. They will set a low bar in that they don't want to miss stuff, but equally most things they look at are innocuous.FrancisUrquhart said:
I meant more the fact the sheer volume of horrendous shit they are having to wade through.Omnium said:
You on the other hand look at perhaps 10 a second - so 10*60*60*24 - roughly a million.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
They have a machine that works out what looks bad. We finish up with perhaps 8k bad in 25k.
They're going to look at mostly ok photos, and that's even assuming that the degree to which the algorithms can discern good from bad is amazing.0 -
Sterling seems remarkably nonplussed by all these sudden obstacles.0
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So many of our politicians have forgotten that actions can have consequences.DecrepitJohnL said:
Oh FFS what did he think was going to happen? Insert TSE Brexit/divorce analogy here.bigjohnowls said:Mike Gapes
Verified account
@MikeGapes
Follow Follow @MikeGapes
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So despite the unanimous support of my @CommonsForeign colleagues I have been purged by a vote of the House 199-134. Government had free vote. Labour were whipped. Thank you to those Labour MPs who defied the whip. This is a sad day for the independence of Select Committees.
SOUR GAPES!!!0 -
It was never going to be a short extension. Only the deal would make that viable and if there's one thing MPs have managed to agree on consistently it is not liking it.NickPalmer said:
As I read this, it means that the SI must be laid (and thus our exit date known) by Monday. Since the WA won't be voted on until after Monday, that makes a short extension very problematic.rottenborough said:0 -
No-deal won't require a long extension.kle4 said:
It was never going to be a short extension. Only the deal would make that viable and if there's one thing MPs have managed to agree on consistently it is not liking it.NickPalmer said:
As I read this, it means that the SI must be laid (and thus our exit date known) by Monday. Since the WA won't be voted on until after Monday, that makes a short extension very problematic.rottenborough said:
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I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 6500 -
Somehow May thinking of requesting two entirely different extensions (depending on what happens) in order to avoid pissing off either halves of her cabinet seems like a concise summary of her entire don't-collapse-the-wavefunction, quantum Brexit strategy in a nutshell.0
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Granted, but in considering prospective extensions there's an assumption that no deal has, somehow, been avoided. Certainly that is not guaranteedgeoffw said:
No-deal won't require a long extension.kle4 said:
It was never going to be a short extension. Only the deal would make that viable and if there's one thing MPs have managed to agree on consistently it is not liking it.NickPalmer said:
As I read this, it means that the SI must be laid (and thus our exit date known) by Monday. Since the WA won't be voted on until after Monday, that makes a short extension very problematic.rottenborough said:0 -
The What If's....A very famous sudden storm once displaced a formidable fleet attacking through the English Channel..without which we would be possibly some Spanish speaking, catholic outpost...another_richard said:
Didn't Clegg beat Huhne for the LibDem leadership in 2008 only because a postal strike delayed the return of postal ballots ?tyson said:
One could quite credibly argue that driving points matter.Sean_F said:
Maybe the same will happen in Peterborough.IanB2 said:From The Times (£):
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.
After all without Chris Huhne's missus- he would have been LD leader at the 2015 election and we wouldn't be immersed now in Brexshit..
I wonder if Huhne would have been so willing to betray students as Clegg was.
0 -
Bye bye Brexit for the foreseeable. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of faux aristocrats and spivs.kle4 said:
It was never going to be a short extension. Only the deal would make that viable and if there's one thing MPs have managed to agree on consistently it is not liking it.NickPalmer said:
As I read this, it means that the SI must be laid (and thus our exit date known) by Monday. Since the WA won't be voted on until after Monday, that makes a short extension very problematic.rottenborough said:0 -
Au contraire Big-G, many MPs have been for no-deal, and many of the public too.Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 650
0 -
Would new legislation be required for the UK to hold European elections? If we have not left the EU by the relevant date surely the existing legislation would automatically trigger the elections?Big_G_NorthWales said:Having just listened to Katya Adler, BBC Europe correspondent and one of the best on the subject of brexit, she confirms the frustration and dismay throughout the EU 27 with mixed views on options for an extension.
An important point she made is that on any extension beyond the end of June, the UK would be required to put in place the legislation to take part in the EU elections by 21st April as that is the cut off date across Europe to confirm candidates.
I just cannot see that passing and without it the EU could not allow the UK to be a member as all their subsquent legislation would be voted by an illegitimate EU Parliament
Oh boy, is this complex and a mess
She added that the 27 are considering a final brexit meeting on the 28th March, the day before we leave on the 29th (are supposed to leave) to no doubt confirm extension or even no deal !!!!0 -
I really hope you are right but I think no deal is rising rapidly unfortunatelyrottenborough said:
Bye bye Brexit for the foreseeable. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of faux aristocrats and spivs.kle4 said:
It was never going to be a short extension. Only the deal would make that viable and if there's one thing MPs have managed to agree on consistently it is not liking it.NickPalmer said:
As I read this, it means that the SI must be laid (and thus our exit date known) by Monday. Since the WA won't be voted on until after Monday, that makes a short extension very problematic.rottenborough said:0 -
And who programs the machines? You'd be best not to believe that documentary. Algroithms may well go through 'all your stuff', but they'll see you as "Typical5". They'll be very good at saying whether a voucher for a discount in Asda will help Asda's revenues, but will have no idea or interest in whether you are 47ft tall and wear skin-tight underpants. Everyone else in the world would notice, but you'd be safe from them.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not according to this documentary. Remember machines have already gone through all of it and only stuff it doesn't like the look of it gets passed to the mods.Omnium said:
Most of the "horrendous shit" list is just us smiling with our kids. They will set a low bar in that they don't want to miss stuff, but equally most things they look at are innocuous.FrancisUrquhart said:
I meant more the fact the sheer volume of horrendous shit they are having to wade through.Omnium said:
You on the other hand look at perhaps 10 a second - so 10*60*60*24 - roughly a million.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
Facebook has long since learned who you and your kids are and so won't get flagged.
Much of what you suggest is not just infeasible, but actually it may be impossible. You'd finish up with too many spare 'degrees of freedom'.0 -
And if not...and somehow we live to fight another day and are saved from Brexit...whom Big_G do you give credit too? Dominic Grieve for me is the main man.Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 650
0 -
Huhne could living in CA now, earning millions defending Facebook.another_richard said:
Didn't Clegg beat Huhne for the LibDem leadership in 2008 only because a postal strike delayed the return of postal ballots ?tyson said:
One could quite credibly argue that driving points matter.Sean_F said:
Maybe the same will happen in Peterborough.IanB2 said:From The Times (£):
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.
After all without Chris Huhne's missus- he would have been LD leader at the 2015 election and we wouldn't be immersed now in Brexshit..
I wonder if Huhne would have been so willing to betray students as Clegg was.
I am reminded of a scene in a Woody Allen film, where the tennis ball hits the top of the cord and just goes over.0 -
Dear Europe. Shall we dance?
“Welcome to Europe Mrs May. What do you plan to do with the extension, if we allow you one at terrible confusion and cost to our economies and businesses”
‘Simples. I plan to hold a Leavers referendum. Just my deal on the paper.”
“And how does that avoid further cliff edge?”
“Forage-“
“What?”
“Alas dear Olly used to call him forage, before I had him thrown under a bus. Forage, Bozzy Bear, all the swivel eyed ERG will have to convincingly explain why my deal is not Brexit. Corby's vassalage+ policy will fall apart in the first five days of the campaign. They can’t simply go around as protesters and rabble rousers exploiting every little bit of dissatisfaction in UK today and promising the moon on a stick to everyone, not this time, not in a referendum like this. There will be some manoeuvre in Parliament to change the wording on the ballot to more than one option, but I have the numbers to defeat that, certainly prevent remain getting on it. But once I win, I certainly will, parliament will do the bidding of the people. Simples.”
“Indeed. Where did you get such a simple but clever plan?”
“I’d like to say it’s so similar to the way out of the situation in 75. But the truth is it was PoliticalBetting.com Britain’s most read blog on politics Monday 18th, when they discussed merits of a leaver referendum. The reincarnation of Merlin, in the guise of six dots has come to save me.”
“Very well. Off you go then.”
“Oh Johnny, before I go, run your fingers through my hair one last time.”
“Come to papa my difficult little Briton. Let us dance and forget about tomorrow’s problems.”0 -
Yes - but I never thought it would happen until this last couple of daysgeoffw said:
Au contraire Big-G, many MPs have been for no-deal, and many of the public too.Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 6500 -
But Gove didn't and his views are more important than yours.geoffw said:
Au contraire Big-G, many MPs have been for no-deal, and many of the public too.Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 6500 -
Good. Then it may be avoided.Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 650
The Brexit Paradox is that to reach a compromise, people probably have to fear no deal actually happening.0 -
That is true, but if someone feels no deal is terrible for the country then MPs allowing it to happen lets down the country whether or not many MPs and public want it.geoffw said:
Au contraire Big-G, many MPs have been for no-deal, and many of the public too.Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 650
Of course, that is the main reason so many MPs have fought to prevent Brexit despite pretending they were theoretically ok with it by triggering A50, in that any Brexit lets down the country in their eyes.0 -
Yes, apparently.anothernick said:
Would new legislation be required for the UK to hold European elections?Big_G_NorthWales said:Having just listened to Katya Adler, BBC Europe correspondent and one of the best on the subject of brexit, she confirms the frustration and dismay throughout the EU 27 with mixed views on options for an extension.
An important point she made is that on any extension beyond the end of June, the UK would be required to put in place the legislation to take part in the EU elections by 21st April as that is the cut off date across Europe to confirm candidates.
I just cannot see that passing and without it the EU could not allow the UK to be a member as all their subsquent legislation would be voted by an illegitimate EU Parliament
Oh boy, is this complex and a mess
She added that the 27 are considering a final brexit meeting on the 28th March, the day before we leave on the 29th (are supposed to leave) to no doubt confirm extension or even no deal !!!!0 -
Why do you think No Deal is likely?Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 6500 -
It was 2007, but otherwise precisely correct. I never knew this, thanks for mentioning it.another_richard said:
Didn't Clegg beat Huhne for the LibDem leadership in 2008 only because a postal strike delayed the return of postal ballots ?tyson said:
One could quite credibly argue that driving points matter.Sean_F said:
Maybe the same will happen in Peterborough.IanB2 said:From The Times (£):
Last week a bizarre election took place in Fall River, a small city in Massachusetts. Jasiel Correia, the 27-year-old mayor, who is facing fraud charges, was overwhelmingly rejected by voters in a recall ballot. More than 60 per cent of residents voted to remove him and only 4,911, or 38 per cent, supported him remaining as mayor. The result was clear but there was a strange twist. The poll also included a question about who should replace Mr Correia. Five people ran to fill the role, including the incumbent. On this second question, the mayor received almost exactly the same number of votes as in the first question, 4,808, but this time the rest of the votes were split between four candidates and so Mr Correia won.
After all without Chris Huhne's missus- he would have been LD leader at the 2015 election and we wouldn't be immersed now in Brexshit..
I wonder if Huhne would have been so willing to betray students as Clegg was.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Liberal_Democrats_leadership_election#Voting_issues0 -
We need more Snells:Philip_Thompson said:
Good. Then it may be avoided.Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 650
The Brexit Paradox is that to reach a compromise, people probably have to fear no deal actually happening.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1108096507322998784
Whiff of panic coming back to them from their voters.0 -
That's not what I think.TheScreamingEagles said:
But Gove didn't and his views are more important than yours.geoffw said:
Au contraire Big-G, many MPs have been for no-deal, and many of the public too.Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 650
0 -
I think No Deal is very possible next week. We have a government of incompetents and it is the default option.Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 650
No Deal won't be so bad, we would just wind up signing a near identical deal after a few weeks
It makes no sense to have a short extension, with an option to extend. A long extension with an option of early exit makes much more logical sense.0 -
Mondays Pb debate revealed there are two types of 2nd Brexit referendum. A remainer referendum with remain on the ballot that can only be a new process, “are you sure you want to Brexit now time has passed and we have all thought more on it” ref. Quite rightly leavers are suspicious of this remainer ref. It would also be a mistake to mix different processes and questions before completing the last.dots said:
“Oh Johnny, run your fingers through my hair one last time.”
Because there is also a further option that wasn’t part of the 2016 process, but as the 2016 process only asked a vague remain or leave without specific destination, a follow up ref to the people to endorse type and plan for leave perhaps in hindsight could have been part of the 2016 election as logical improvement, and clear conclusion of the process. Put crudely, where 2016 was advisory to representative democracy with the people answering, “we want to leave now get on an do it”, the tie up is the people shutting up the politicians just arguing forever “do this and do it now”.
A good example in the discussion was the previous referendum on changing the voting system; the question was not remain as we are or change to a fairer voting system, it specified AV as apparently better destination. The EU ref was a different beast without specifics on type of out, compared previous voting system ref where the two end points were explicitly clear. Referenda aren’t just referenda the process, question, role of the direct democracy in representative democracy can vary considerably. You could end up in trouble by not thinking it through before starting on the process.
So to move on from how we got here, Question now is can we alter the rules on this one or not? The conclusion to the debate prompted by my article was yes, if for a leave referendum rather than a remain referendum we can build on the previous ref with an option out of the impasse.
Crisis? What crisis? PB has sorted it.0 -
According to Katya - yesanothernick said:
Would new legislation be required for the UK to hold European elections? If we have not left the EU by the relevant date surely the existing legislation would automatically trigger the elections?Big_G_NorthWales said:Having just listened to Katya Adler, BBC Europe correspondent and one of the best on the subject of brexit, she confirms the frustration and dismay throughout the EU 27 with mixed views on options for an extension.
An important point she made is that on any extension beyond the end of June, the UK would be required to put in place the legislation to take part in the EU elections by 21st April as that is the cut off date across Europe to confirm candidates.
I just cannot see that passing and without it the EU could not allow the UK to be a member as all their subsquent legislation would be voted by an illegitimate EU Parliament
Oh boy, is this complex and a mess
She added that the 27 are considering a final brexit meeting on the 28th March, the day before we leave on the 29th (are supposed to leave) to no doubt confirm extension or even no deal !!!!0 -
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I am well aware of what state of the art machine learning can and can not do, it's my job.Omnium said:
And who programs the machines? You'd be best not to believe that documentary. Algroithms may well go through 'all your stuff', but they'll see you as "Typical5". They'll be very good at saying whether a voucher for a discount in Asda will help Asda's revenues, but will have no idea or interest in whether you are 47ft tall and wear skin-tight underpants. Everyone else in the world would notice, but you'd be safe from them.FrancisUrquhart said:
Not according to this documentary. Remember machines have already gone through all of it and only stuff it doesn't like the look of it gets passed to the mods.Omnium said:
Most of the "horrendous shit" list is just us smiling with our kids. They will set a low bar in that they don't want to miss stuff, but equally most things they look at are innocuous.FrancisUrquhart said:
I meant more the fact the sheer volume of horrendous shit they are having to wade through.Omnium said:
You on the other hand look at perhaps 10 a second - so 10*60*60*24 - roughly a million.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
Facebook has long since learned who you and your kids are and so won't get flagged.
Much of what you suggest is not just infeasible, but actually it may be impossible. You'd finish up with too many spare 'degrees of freedom'.0 -
I don't know why he would only now have difficulty looking his constituents in the eyes and saying that. He and hundreds of others have been playing political games for bloody months knowing full well that all sorts of issues really needed tackling well before now, so I find his sudden attack of realisation suspect in its level of sincerity (granted the many many delays are not down to him personally, but the suggestion only now is he having trouble defending the political gamesmanship to his constituents rings hollow)rottenborough said:
We need more Snells:Philip_Thompson said:
Good. Then it may be avoided.Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 650
The Brexit Paradox is that to reach a compromise, people probably have to fear no deal actually happening.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1108096507322998784
Whiff of panic coming back to them from their voters.0 -
May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.0
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Well of course its not ok to have a bad apple in the barrel. Most images that they look at in my imagined example will be fine. There's no acceptable threshold for bad stuff. We have to hope that a Google reviewer when looking at 25k images in a day finds none to be of concern.Philip_Thompson said:
If their moderators were having to look at 8k "bad" images a day I'd struggle to reconcile that as being "mostly ok" even if that's mathematically correct.Omnium said:
Suppose there are 10k bad pictures in 10mPhilip_Thompson said:
Will it? How many pictures of smiling with kids are being reported to moderators?Omnium said:
Most of the "horrendous shit" list is just us smiling with our kids. They will set a low bar in that they don't want to miss stuff, but equally most things they look at are innocuous.FrancisUrquhart said:
I meant more the fact the sheer volume of horrendous shit they are having to wade through.Omnium said:
You on the other hand look at perhaps 10 a second - so 10*60*60*24 - roughly a million.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
They have a machine that works out what looks bad. We finish up with perhaps 8k bad in 25k.
They're going to look at mostly ok photos, and that's even assuming that the degree to which the algorithms can discern good from bad is amazing.
We also know that there will be bad images that never get reviewed. We have to hope that the bad stuff there is an even tinier proportion.
This stuff is so basic in terms of the way the world works. Type I and Type II errors in statistics. It simply is the way things are.0 -
On your numbers what they're looking at isn't one rotten apple in the barrel, it'd be roughly a quarter being rotten. That's not pleasant.Omnium said:
Well of course its not ok to have a bad apple in the barrel. Most images that they look at in my imagined example will be fine. There's no acceptable threshold for bad stuff. We have to hope that a Google reviewer when looking at 25k images in a day finds none to be of concern.Philip_Thompson said:
If their moderators were having to look at 8k "bad" images a day I'd struggle to reconcile that as being "mostly ok" even if that's mathematically correct.Omnium said:
Suppose there are 10k bad pictures in 10mPhilip_Thompson said:
Will it? How many pictures of smiling with kids are being reported to moderators?Omnium said:
Most of the "horrendous shit" list is just us smiling with our kids. They will set a low bar in that they don't want to miss stuff, but equally most things they look at are innocuous.FrancisUrquhart said:
I meant more the fact the sheer volume of horrendous shit they are having to wade through.Omnium said:
You on the other hand look at perhaps 10 a second - so 10*60*60*24 - roughly a million.FrancisUrquhart said:Jesus Christ these Facebook content moderators have to look at 25,000 images a day!
They have a machine that works out what looks bad. We finish up with perhaps 8k bad in 25k.
They're going to look at mostly ok photos, and that's even assuming that the degree to which the algorithms can discern good from bad is amazing.
We also know that there will be bad images that never get reviewed. We have to hope that the bad stuff there is an even tinier proportion.
This stuff is so basic in terms of the way the world works. Type I and Type II errors in statistics. It simply is the way things are.0 -
What bothers me is the apparent lack of urgency. If she wants an extension, go and get it, but I entirely expect they have spent all afternoon faffing around over the letter.0
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Not sure anyone from the two extremes, so each and everyone of them will be responsible for no deal, and not least the 498 who signed up for A50tyson said:
And if not...and somehow we live to fight another day and are saved from Brexit...whom Big_G do you give credit too? Dominic Grieve for me is the main man.Big_G_NorthWales said:I am really beginning to think we are heading for no deal and that is the first time I have felt it
If so, the country has been let down by each and every one of the 6500 -
All those points may be true, but the Tories cannot agree on what they want to do so any leader faces the same issues even if they handle them better. May's own actions have reached a point wherein the reasonable defences of her do not exculpate her, but it is still true that she did not create the pressures on the party that have led to such a state.saddo said:May must go in the next few days. She's killing the Tory party and the country's reputation. Tories need new PM in place asap.
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EU has said there has to be a reason for the delay i.e. a plan for the use of the time.Tyke said:What bothers me is the apparent lack of urgency. If she wants an extension, go and get it, but I entirely expect they have spent all afternoon faffing around over the letter.
That is a problem for May. Since a) she doesn't have a plan and b) she appears to hate planning.0
