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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s path to victory. The seats that could put Labour in p

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  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    felix said:

    Justin 124 is very consistent.
    I think "anally retentive" is what you are looking for.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    eek said:

    It does mean that a lot of shops will have to move location to make sense, the pedestrian area of most towns isn't convenient for even a small shop..
    Tough on anyone without a car.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Endillion said:

    A home secretary who wants to impose the rule of law and arrest criminals? Whatever next?
    LOL, you halfwit , they were not catching the criminals, they were too busy chucking out people who were British Citizens whilst dog whistling with their vans.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    malcolmg said:

    Tough on anyone without a car.
    Well, yes. You wonder how quick bus routes will be to keep up.

    In Cannock, our new retail park is being built next to the station, but I can't shake the nagging feeling that's a happy accident (or unhappy for anyone who has to commute past the sodding roadworks.)
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    If you try to do something and it obviously isn't working that is the sensible thing to do.
    But what if a march is Ther Will of Ther People?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    justin124 said:

    Who spouted the best quality rubbish on here in May/June 2017?
    Guaranteed it was not you that is for sure. Weaselling out with "I do not bet" says it all. Full of wind and piss.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    HYUFD said:
    Sure, shall we take all our jobs and investments with us?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    malcolmg said:

    Guaranteed it was not you that is for sure. Weaselling out with "I do not bet" says it all. Full of wind and piss.
    Probably most people on here do not bet. That does not make it invalid to judge the forecasts made by particular contributors. The confidence of your May 2017 predictions rather stood out - as did those of quite a few others.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    malcolmg said:

    LOL, you halfwit , they were not catching the criminals, they were too busy chucking out people who were British Citizens whilst dog whistling with their vans.
    "Halfwit" from you feels almost like a compliment :)

    I can only say that I wish May was showing half the cunning you seem to ascribe to her on immigration, in getting Brexit over the line. I don't think she's either cruel or stupid, but I think the evidence suggests she's unlikely to be both.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Fenman said:

    Sure, shall we take all our jobs and investments with us?
    Unfortunately you reap what you sow, given the comments recently from England re Brexit insulting the Irish, I am amazed you think them returning the favour is odd.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,572
    edited March 2019

    It's a astonishing how quickly they're crumbling. Presumably it was just posturing but then they finally realized these things would have catastrophic consequences and panic set in. There can be no other explanation.
    Nobody wants to accept the blame for No Deal.

    Nobody wants to accept the blame for not implementing the Referendum. Labour especially don't want to be painted as the reason for it when Tory MPs fall into line.

    Nobody can negotiate with the EU by March 29th - and no indication they could if given years and years extension.

    Nobody wants to accept the blame for lost jobs due to an extension of many many months/years.

    Plus, we have a Parliament of Fuckwits and Spineless Gimps with the imagination of a caravan site. Really, what do you expect?



  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,317
    malcolmg said:

    Unfortunately you reap what you sow, given the comments recently from England re Brexit insulting the Irish, I am amazed you think them returning the favour is odd.
    I'm pretty sure Brexit was not the reason for that (thinks for a minute) large-sheet-with-slogan-on- it (godsdammit, what is the word for that?)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Endillion said:

    "Halfwit" from you feels almost like a compliment :)

    I can only say that I wish May was showing half the cunning you seem to ascribe to her on immigration, in getting Brexit over the line. I don't think she's either cruel or stupid, but I think the evidence suggests she's unlikely to be both.
    :smiley: you may be right and she is just in fact be stupid and promoted well beyond her capabilities, regardless she is a disaster. Though I doubt she thought much about the implications on the public re her actions.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,356

    Nobody wants to accept the blame for No Deal.

    Nobody wants to accept the blame for not implementing the Referendum. Labour especially don't want to be painted as the reason for it when Tory MPs fall into line.

    Nobody can negotiate with the EU by March 29th - and no indication they could if given years and years extension.

    Nobody wants to accept the blame for lost jobs due to an extension of many many months/years.

    Plus, we have a Parliament of Fuckwits and Spineless Gimps with the imagination of a caravan site. Really, what do you expect?



    You could probably have stopped after 'Nobody wants to accept the blame'.

    However Brexit pans out, I predict oodles of culpa and fuck all mea for the next few years.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Ishmael_Z said:

    But what if a march is Ther Will of Ther People?
    It clearly isn't the will of very many people.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,988
    There are benefits? I'd love to know exactly what he thinks these are.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,120

    There are benefits? I'd love to know exactly what he thinks these are.
    It ends free movement, ensures control of about 80% of our economy etc
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    It ends free movement, ensures control of about 80% of our economy etc
    I think Stark and the Brexit pixie were both talking about the benefits of the European Union. I too am interested to know what Hannan regards as the benefits.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    edited March 2019
    viewcode said:

    I'm pretty sure Brexit was not the reason for that (thinks for a minute) large-sheet-with-slogan-on- it (godsdammit, what is the word for that?)
    It was very childish but in current febrile situation I do not find it a surprise. People in UK have gone stark raving mad and have infected people in other countries in the process.

    PS Banner
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,988
    HYUFD said:

    It ends free movement, ensures control of about 80% of our economy etc
    But he's referring to the benefits of membership surely.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    viewcode said:

    I'm pretty sure Brexit was not the reason for that (thinks for a minute) large-sheet-with-slogan-on- it (godsdammit, what is the word for that?)
    Well, it's St Patrick's. Someone else who came from England and tried to help the Irish....
  • kfowkeskfowkes Posts: 20
    malcolmg said:

    Guaranteed it was not you that is for sure. Weaselling out with "I do not bet" says it all. Full of wind and piss.
    Nothing Ng controversial about what Justin is predicting. it may or may or not happen, no real reason why Labour cannot gain Glasgow SW, Glasgow E, Dunfermline etc on a tiny swing from the SNP maybe even if their vote is down slightly overall where a tiny amount of tactical voting could even come in.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,108
    The deal will either crash and burn this week or scrape through and implode when it has to be incorporated into the WAIB.

    None of the media seem to be talking about the Bill needed and seem to have ignored that . It’s likely that will turn into another drama .

    Any legislation in that to appease the DUP will narrow UK options in terms of trade outside of the EU . They want the same relationship with the single market and CU as the rest of the UK.

    You can’t square the circle of the backstop with that.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    It's what he said to me - he'd previously been against because he saw it as reinforcing free market liberalism, but he felt that now there were more progressive forces in Europe to ally with so he'd changed his mind, without great enthusiasm. Exactly what he went on to say in public.
    Ah honest Jeremy Corbyn pro European, anti-racist, for the many not the j. oops! few. He really is the salt of the earth.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    The deal will either crash and burn this week or scrape through and implode when it has to be incorporated into the WAIB.

    None of the media seem to be talking about the Bill needed and seem to have ignored that . It’s likely that will turn into another drama .

    Any legislation in that to appease the DUP will narrow UK options in terms of trade outside of the EU . They want the same relationship with the single market and CU as the rest of the UK.

    You can’t square the circle of the backstop with that.

    No once the deal gets through the Meaningful Vote the bill will rapidly progress. It will have already passed the Commons once so will again while the Lords won't want to be seen to risk a crash out of block this.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,317
    malcolmg said:

    It was very childish but in current febrile situation I do not find it a surprise. People in UK have gone stark raving mad and have infected people in other countries in the process.

    PS Banner
    Thank you. I forget words. Still, google helps.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    kfowkes said:

    Nothing Ng controversial about what Justin is predicting. it may or may or not happen, no real reason why Labour cannot gain Glasgow SW, Glasgow E, Dunfermline etc on a tiny swing from the SNP maybe even if their vote is down slightly overall where a tiny amount of tactical voting could even come in.
    I did not say that was controversial and indeed could be likely, I objected to his stalking and the demented mantra he keeps adding to my posts re my thought that SNP would get 50 Mp's last time. I know it did not pan out that way.
    He is a balloon, he does it constantly hoping to upset me but it just confirms my opinion that he is a bellend of the first order and further confirmed by his being unwilling to back up his big talk with his money, preferring to whine from the sidelines.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited March 2019
    Anorak said:

    The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.
    Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.

    Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    viewcode said:

    Thank you. I forget words. Still, google helps.
    I almost said placard at first and had to think a bit.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Dan Hannan not so keen on early redundancy now? If the WA was the final destination he might have more of a point.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,120

    I think Stark and the Brexit pixie were both talking about the benefits of the European Union. I too am interested to know what Hannan regards as the benefits.
    His salary for starters
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    brendan16 said:



    Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.

    Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
    I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Scott_P said:
    Worthless as in reality you'd have Farage's Brexit Party whipping up a storm during the campaign...
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Never thought we would see EU election polls for the UK again.

    If we are going to hold these polls - which are self standing 3 weeks after the local polls - local authorities and the parties are going to need to get moving soon.

    How will each party pick the people on their list - by membership ballot or central diktat.

    Will there be any remainers/ERG supporters at the top of the Tory lists?

    Will the 17% UKIP vote stay with UKIP or go to the Farage Brexit party. For example half the UKIP MEPs left in Brussels (there aren't many left with the UKIP label!) still sit with Farage in his group while Batten has moved over to the Le Pen/Salvini ENF group. If the two parties split the 17% they may struggle to get any seats outside possibly the huge South east region

    Will the Tiggers run their own slate - or link up with the Lib Dems?

    Will Momentum decide who is on the Labour list - with a potential purge of their existing MEPs as is planned for the London Assembly?

    What will happen in Wales, Scotland and NI?


    This first national 'people's vote' since we didn't leave on 29 March could be interesting. Its the perfect protest vehicle for people hacked off with the main parties - as its almost risk free. People can vote for their first choice - not the lesser of two evils as they are forced to under FPTP.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Worthless as in reality you'd have Farage's Brexit Party whipping up a storm during the campaign...

    Like his march...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited March 2019
    There seems to be quite a lot of push back against May's deal today... Don't think this thing is passing this week?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I normally agree with Daniel Hannan (even when I was a Remainer I found him intelligent and thought provoking unlike most sceptic dingbats like Farage). But even as a bitter opponent of the deal I think this is wrong.

    Clearly after the transition we lose most of the costs. Including quite literally the cost.
    We also get most of the benefits of leaving.

    I oppose the deal on principle as I find the backstop an unconscionable infringement of our human rights. Which to me trumps all other cost/benefit arguments. Had it not been for the backstop the cost/benefit ratio is this is a great deal.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:

    Like his march...
    Dear Scott as you well know the silent majorly don't march, protest or riot... That's why they are "silent" ... But they DO vote! :D
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    nico67 said:

    The deal will either crash and burn this week or scrape through and implode when it has to be incorporated into the WAIB.

    None of the media seem to be talking about the Bill needed and seem to have ignored that . It’s likely that will turn into another drama .

    Any legislation in that to appease the DUP will narrow UK options in terms of trade outside of the EU . They want the same relationship with the single market and CU as the rest of the UK.

    You can’t square the circle of the backstop with that.

    Much more appeasement of the DUP will be counterproductive in terms of votes at the locals.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    tlg86 said:

    I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.
    HYUFD said:

    His salary for starters
    You cynical little mugwump you.

    He actually represents me, and a great many other people, in the European Parliament. We should look at the size of EU constituencies for the EU Parliament when we get back in/when Brexit has been cancelled. I don't think it is working well for democratic accountability.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    GIN1138 said:

    There seems to be quite a lot of push back against May's deal today... Don't think this thing is passing this week?
    Makes me think of Custer's Last Stand.
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    ‪Sad sad thought about New Zealand. The violent battle between Islamists and far right terrorists will only worsen, and intensify.

    Compare Ulster. The Islamists are the IRA, the white supremacists are the Loyalists: the inevitable, bloody and hideous reaction. ‬
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: watched the highlights covering the bit of the race I missed earlier.

    Pretty good opening race, I thought.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    Scott_P said:
    Is the same set of respondents being used when prompting for TIG?

    The Scotland sub-samples look weird

    SCon 34-> 25% when TIG prompted
    SLab 17-> 8%
    Libdem 0-> 4% (OK that I can accept)
    TIG 4%
    SNP 44-> 51% ??
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    "He actually represents me, and a great many other people, in the European Parliament. We should look at the size of EU constituencies for the EU Parliament when we get back in/when Brexit has been cancelled. I don't think it is working well for democratic accountability."

    I tend to agree on this point - some of our constituencies have as few as 3 seats (North east and NI) yet the North west and London have 8 and the south east 10. I can see you can't do much about Wales, Scotland and NI - but surely the English regions should all have roughly the same numbers of MEPs.

    At present you need over 30% of the vote to elect an MEP in the north east but less than 10% in the south east. So smaller parties stand far more chance of electing MEPs in some areas (e.g. London and the SE) than others - and thus the national outcome is not as proportional as it should be. This is evident from 2014 - where the Lib Dems won only one seat in the south east region as it was the largest constituency. Too late for 2019 - but if we are still members in 2024....



  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,108
    tlg86 said:

    I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.
    How the thunderstorms were centred over the south and se . London’s turnout was lower than many other areas. That was a key Remain area .

    The highest leave voting areas were dry . The voters in the C2DE demographic came out in higher numbers than expected , they’re also more likely to be effected by the weather in terms of intention to vote .

    Not saying Remain would have won as the turnouts in Scotland and NI weren’t great . But it would have been closer .

  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    I meant to add that is Westminster VI
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Todays YG Outlier still has Tories ahead
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    nico67 said:

    How the thunderstorms were centred over the south and se . London’s turnout was lower than many other areas. That was a key Remain area .

    The highest leave voting areas were dry . The voters in the C2DE demographic came out in higher numbers than expected , they’re also more likely to be effected by the weather in terms of intention to vote .

    Not saying Remain would have won as the turnouts in Scotland and NI weren’t great . But it would have been closer .

    The paper said that the rain made no difference to remain areas of the South East but it may have depressed turnout in leave areas of the South East.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    CON: 35% (-5)
    LAB: 31% (-)
    LDEM: 12% (+1)
    UKIP: 6% (+3)
    BREX: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (-)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    nico67 said:

    How the thunderstorms were centred over the south and se . London’s turnout was lower than many other areas. That was a key Remain area .

    The highest leave voting areas were dry . The voters in the C2DE demographic came out in higher numbers than expected , they’re also more likely to be effected by the weather in terms of intention to vote .

    Not saying Remain would have won as the turnouts in Scotland and NI weren’t great . But it would have been closer .

    Here's the study -- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629817301300?via=ihub
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    CON: 35% (-5)
    LAB: 31% (-)
    LDEM: 12% (+1)
    UKIP: 6% (+3)
    BREX: 4% (+1)
    GRN: 4% (-)

    Would be helpful to provide some context for those numbers...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,356
    SeanT said:

    ‪Sad sad thought about New Zealand. The violent battle between Islamists and far right terrorists will only worsen, and intensify.

    Compare Ulster. The Islamists are the IRA, the white supremacists are the Loyalists: the inevitable, bloody and hideous reaction. ‬

    Some Loyalists are already white supremacists, so a bit of crossover going on.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291
    RobD said:

    Would be helpful to provide some context for those numbers...
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1107296322707750912?s=19
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    RobD said:

    Would be helpful to provide some context for those numbers...
    Todays YG Outlier Compared to 4/3/19 YGO

    Theresa May is...

    Competent: 39% (-6)
    Incompetent: 46% (+8)

    Trustworthy: 36% (-3)
    Untrustworthy: 45% (+5)

    Strong: 35% (+5)
    Weak: 50% (-)

    Likeable: 32% (+2)
    Dislikeable: 46% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 14 - 15 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 27 Sep
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,108
    RobD said:

    Here's the study -- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629817301300?via=ihub
    Interesting thanks for posting the link . I’m happy to accept that.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Theresa May should...

    Remain Conservative leader: 33%
    Get the Fook out of here: 45%

    via @YouGov, 14 - 15 Mar
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    SeanT said:

    ‪Sad sad thought about New Zealand. The violent battle between Islamists and far right terrorists will only worsen, and intensify.

    Compare Ulster. The Islamists are the IRA, the white supremacists are the Loyalists: the inevitable, bloody and hideous reaction. ‬

    Seems a completely over the top comparison.
    There is no Islamist threat in NZ as far as I can see, probably not much of a right wing threat either - the ringleader was apparently Australian.
    Maybe that's not what you meant and were referring to the world as a whole rather than comparing NZ to NI?
    PS Started reading 'The Ice Twins'
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Todays YG Outlier Compared to 4/3/19 YGO

    Theresa May is...

    Competent: 39% (-6)
    Incompetent: 46% (+8)

    Trustworthy: 36% (-3)
    Untrustworthy: 45% (+5)

    Strong: 35% (+5)
    Weak: 50% (-)

    Likeable: 32% (+2)
    Dislikeable: 46% (+1)

    via @YouGov, 14 - 15 Mar
    Chgs. w/ 27 Sep
    Ah, thanks!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Dangerous far right nutters have been around for decades.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,580
    edited March 2019

    Seems a completely over the top comparison.
    There is no Islamist threat in NZ as far as I can see, probably not much of a right wing threat either - the ringleader was apparently Australian.
    Maybe that's not what you meant and were referring to the world as a whole rather than comparing NZ to NI?
    PS Started reading 'The Ice Twins'
    Barely a 'ringleader' either. Did he have more than one or two accomplices? And do we know yet if they were Kiwi or Aussie?

    And I don't think there's much of a comparison with Ulster, either. Both sides there have a comprehensible political dimension as well as a gang of psychotic hangers-on.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited March 2019
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1107296322707750912?s=19
    So Tories lose 5 - mostly to UKIP and 'Brex'.

    I presume 'Brex' is the Brexit party? Do they even exist except online - odd that despite all those walkouts on climate change by schoolkids last week they are already matching the Greens.

    Taking a break from the march Farage did his Sunday morning radio show earlier. He had Michael Portillo on for the first 30 minutes - discussing everything from Brexit to the cancellation of This Week. Portillo is always worth a listen - whether its on politics or on train journeys to exotic and less exotic destinations.

    Perhaps he could team up with Joanna Lumley once his TW duties end in the summer!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EioHdkKWDs
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    malcolmg said:

    I did not say that was controversial and indeed could be likely, I objected to his stalking and the demented mantra he keeps adding to my posts re my thought that SNP would get 50 Mp's last time. I know it did not pan out that way.
    He is a balloon, he does it constantly hoping to upset me but it just confirms my opinion that he is a bellend of the first order and further confirmed by his being unwilling to back up his big talk with his money, preferring to whine from the sidelines.
    Well this bellend did predict that the SNP would struggle to hold 40 seats in 2017 - and that Labour could well end up on 4 or 5. Not perfect - but better than most forecasts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,575
    Jonathan said:

    Dangerous far right nutters have been around for decades.

    I can think of one that's been in the House of Commons for nearly four decades, indeed...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    F1: post-race analysis of an interesting race and a green weekend:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/australia-post-race-analysis-2019.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Miss Vance, to be fair, culinary puritans are bloody tedious.

    https://twitter.com/HeroOfHornska/status/1104051065836720128
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    NEW THREAD
  • SeanTSeanT Posts: 549
    edited March 2019

    Seems a completely over the top comparison.
    There is no Islamist threat in NZ as far as I can see, probably not much of a right wing threat either - the ringleader was apparently Australian.
    Maybe that's not what you meant and were referring to the world as a whole rather than comparing NZ to NI?
    PS Started reading 'The Ice Twins'
    Yes I was taking the western world as a whole. Which is fair, I think. Islamism sees the entire kaffir world as a target; the white guy in New Zealand said his target could’ve been anywhere.

    PS enjoy the ice twins!
This discussion has been closed.