Though if you get too close the ERG will fancy their chances of forcing a no-deal by disrupting proceedings to prevent "We leave on 29th March" from being repealed. Ironically they'd have Gina Miller to thank.
I get the impression Corbyn doesn't appear to know what his Brexit strategy is until he's just finished his previous sentence. A complete dogs breakfast of a "we are all things to all people" nonsense.
Our council tax is circa £250 per month. Band C Newcastle upon Tyne.
My salary has certainly not been keeping up with its increase.
Ow. That is double what it is in Northumberland. Also Band C.
I'm at £2464 this year, band E Nottinghamshire/Bassetlaw. I can see the Doncaster area from my house which would be quite a bit less ><, also Rotherham would be less (Both less than a quarter mile from me). Bloody two tier - needs to be ditched.
I get the impression Corbyn doesn't appear to know what his Brexit strategy is until he's just finished his previous sentence. A complete dogs breakfast of a "we are all things to all people" nonsense.
Everyone's always said that Corbyn made his mind up about a lot of things when he was young, and generally speaking he's stuck to his views. He was a Bennite in the 70's and 80's, which meant he was opposed to the Common Market, because, as I recall it, it would prevent the development of a Socialist Britain. So why would anyone seriously think he's modified his views that much in later life?
OT... ....I went to my very first Ice Hockey Match last night. Nottingham Panthers vs Manchester Storm.......absolutely bloody brilliant. Fast, fun, exciting, great atmosphere, full house, beer, hotdogs and a full on, gloves off fight! I'm hooked. As a Leicester lad, it did feel traitorous cheering on a Notts team, but as it was against Manchester...
Ice hockey is superb live. Just doesn't come across the same on TV when it is difficult to follow the puck.
Given Labour would need almost a 10% lead over the Tories for an overall majority and to win mainly Leave seats in England and Wales if they do not win back anymore SNP seats and current polls show little change in Scotland from last time, if Corbyn is to get into power he will almost certainly rely on SNP MPs in order to get agree a confidence and supply agreement and be able to form a Governmemt
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
Our council tax is circa £250 per month. Band C Newcastle upon Tyne.
My salary has certainly not been keeping up with its increase.
Ow. That is double what it is in Northumberland. Also Band C.
I'm at £2464 this year, band E Nottinghamshire/Bassetlaw. I can see the Doncaster area from my house which would be quite a bit less ><, also Rotherham would be less (Both less than a quarter mile from me). Bloody two tier - needs to be ditched.</p>
IS it 2 tier that does that?
The lower tier is a bit marginal - in Ashfield, also in Notts, the County take about 70%. Not clear why giving them more control would reduce it.
They are trying to centralise it at the moment, but the last thing I want is to be run from b***** West Bridgford 25 miles away. I saw the process in Shropshire when Hazel Blears was abolishing districts to centralise everything back in 2006, and it was a total dog's breakfast.
I've been telling all the first-time-in-a-generation Tory canvassers who are suddenly interested in Mansfield/Ashfield that if they support single tier they'll never get my local vote.
If we ever get to the situation where we've left I actually don't care which wing if the party the next leader comes from as long as it isn't Grieve, JRM or Boris. I can live with the rest and anyone else would be better than May.
The Grieve wing of the Conservative party no longer exists outside of Parliament. The only way to become Tory leader from now on will be to pander to the Fuck Business English nationalist right. It won't be a big issue for the Tories as long as the far left controls the Labour party, but it will leave a huge vacuum in British politics that will eventually be filled.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.
Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.
Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.
and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
I know. I pay several thousand pounds of income tax per month and have never used Trident missiles once. It's outrageous.
This is local taxation we are talking about not national Govt./ If you are paying that amount of tax you can damn well pay for Trident. I am a pensioner who HAS to work.
Most police funding is from national government.
So is most local government funding. The problem is Labour made huge spending commitments without then increasing the grant, and the Tories have now cut the grants without reducing the commitments. Northamptonshire shows where that ends.
They a;lso allowed councils to increase by as much as they wanted and as a consequence they filled their pockets, dolled out salaries that were far too high to pen pushers producing zilch other than PC policies like looking in bins etc.
I get the impression Corbyn doesn't appear to know what his Brexit strategy is until he's just finished his previous sentence. A complete dogs breakfast of a "we are all things to all people" nonsense.
Everyone's always said that Corbyn made his mind up about a lot of things when he was young, and generally speaking he's stuck to his views. He was a Bennite in the 70's and 80's, which meant he was opposed to the Common Market, because, as I recall it, it would prevent the development of a Socialist Britain. So why would anyone seriously think he's modified his views that much in later life?
Corbyn does not seem to care very much about the EU either way; he gave it 7 out of 10, iirc, which is about as far as David Cameron went. Am I imagining a pattern where Corbyn says something Remainish which is later rowed back on after he has met his private office (Seamus and the other one) for a spot of compulsory re-education?
OT... ....I went to my very first Ice Hockey Match last night. Nottingham Panthers vs Manchester Storm.......absolutely bloody brilliant. Fast, fun, exciting, great atmosphere, full house, beer, hotdogs and a full on, gloves off fight! I'm hooked. As a Leicester lad, it did feel traitorous cheering on a Notts team, but as it was against Manchester...
TWFS3 , it is indeed an exciting sport, I used to go when I lived in US, best of the American sports by far.
On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.
Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.
Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.
and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees.
If only there was an international system of Freedom of Movement, so that the rest of us could enjoy that
To be fair you don't need FOM to do what I did - you do need to be financially secure however. Even with FOM life is much harder if you lack a decent income/pension. There is no free lunch here - if you are under retirement age there are zero benefits without a work record.
Spain is actually pretty conservative, certainly more so than most of northern Europe, it has a more contributions based welfare system than we do and is also more religious. Wages though are less than the UK so it may be moving there becomes even more the preserve of wealthier pensioners post Brexit
So it is looking quite good now for the Absolute Girl getting the Withdrawal Agreement passed. A close defeat at MV3 then a win at MV4 is one way, but there must be a risk that Bercow would not allow a 4. Therefore perhaps she would be better pulling next week's vote, going to the Summit, then coming back and presenting one final choice of Brexit via the WA or swallow a long extension. Defer MV3 to the very last gasp, in other words, and thus maximize her chances of winning it.
Doesn't work. The extension (including length) needs to be agreed at the Summit. Unless you can get the EU27 to sign of on an open-ended extension, with a short one if the Deal gets agreed and a long one if it doesn't, which seems like the sort of thing they might not want.
Crimianl and against all convention that she is getting a 3, the country is now a dictatorship, hopefully Bercow does not allow this flagrant breaking of rules and further.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.
Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.
Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.
and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees.
But it doesn't compare to a sunny early spring day in Blighty, all bursting buds and birdong, seeing the sun for the first time in what seems like weeks....
Lol - it kinda does actually.. but nice try.
You're right. It's now pissing down...
Sorry - we get under 30 rainy days all year. Last one was in January.
I quite like rain. Guess I'll not be moving to Spain.
I don't dislike it either but not happy about the amount of it at times, ie always.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
Believe me he does. In the Times his Saturday column is on auto repeat.
On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.
Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.
Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.
and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees.
But it doesn't compare to a sunny early spring day in Blighty, all bursting buds and birdong, seeing the sun for the first time in what seems like weeks....
May will pull her Deal vote and prepare for a 2 year delay to Brexit and extension of Article 50 if the numbers are not there and European elections would be held in June.
A new poll for those European elections if held puts Labour on 23%, the Tories on 16% and Farage's new Brexit Party on 14%
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
He has. He is not the only one who has said similar things. To be fair, others have said nice things abut her - some of the Hillsborough families, for instance.
But she is unable to draw people to her and lead a team and that is a fatal flaw in a PM.
I believe the final sentence is totally wrong. Far from it being 'an impossible task' the electorate is desperate to move on from Brexit and will be very receptive indeed to other issues being raised - as evidenced by 2017.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.
The perception is that she's trying her best, but it's not good enough. People don't seem to mind her, but realise that she's not the right person for the job.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.
She was responsible for the Windrush fiasco. And that was cruel.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
He has. He is not the only one who has said similar things. To be fair, others have said nice things abut her - some of the Hillsborough families, for instance.
But she is unable to draw people to her and lead a team and that is a fatal flaw in a PM.
Fair enough. I haven't seen anything this vituperative, but probably I just haven't been paying close enough attention.
The problem I have is that some of what he's saying seems so over the top (misguided maybe, but surely not stupid?), it makes me automatically question the motives behind saying the rest. As people have said below, driven mad by Brexit.
It says that the Remain vote in Eng&W was heavily clustered in postcode areas which are largely Remain, but the Leave vote is more evenly spread. This explains why Leavers are more tolerant of Remainers than vice versa, and why Leavers were less surprised by the result.
May will pull her Deal vote and prepare for a 2 year delay to Brexit and extension of Article 50 if the numbers are not there and European elections would be held in June.
A new poll for those European elections if held puts Labour on 23%, the Tories on 16% and Farage's new Brexit Party on 14%
The Tiggers would have to stand as it would enable them to do a UKIP strategy. Get money to fund staff and them spend most of the time campaigning in the UK not Brussels.
May will pull her Deal vote and prepare for a 2 year delay to Brexit and extension of Article 50 if the numbers are not there and European elections would be held in June.
A new poll for those European elections if held puts Labour on 23%, the Tories on 16% and Farage's new Brexit Party on 14%
The Tiggers would have to stand as it would enable them to do a UKIP strategy. Get money to fund staff and them spend most of the time campaigning in the UK not Brussels.
Those percentages only add up to 53. Wonder what the others are. 14% for Brexit would give it 8 seats.
It says that the Remain vote in Eng&W was heavily clustered in postcode areas which are largely Remain, but the Leave vote is more evenly spread. This explains why Leavers are more tolerant of Remainers than vice versa, and why Leavers were less surprised by the result.
It's seriously flawed. You can flip it the other way and argue that the majority of Leave voters live in majority Leave areas, whereas the majority of Remain voters live in areas where they were outnumbered on June 23rd, therefore Remain voters are more likely to be in touch with the concerns of the other side.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.
She was responsible for the Windrush fiasco. And that was cruel.
I can't claim to be objective on this, but the worst I think you could say is it was uncaring and incompetent. Cruelty requires a much more active role than not thinking through all the implications of a course of action.
On topic, thanks to Alastair for the detailed analysis.Without knowing much about Scottish politics, it seems likely that the unionist parties have difficulty setting the Scottish agenda in the way that the SNP can, both by their special focus and by being in government. A separate Scottish Labour Party might be a good idea - I know the Tories have flirted with it.
There are 18 Scottish seats in Labour’s top 65 target list. Right now, the polling indicates that Labour is on course to lose at least six of the seven seats it currently holds. There are many reasons why Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election. Scotland is certainly one of them.
My understanding is that Scottish Labour was in the process of developing a separate identity, but that since the election of Richard Leonard as leader it has reverted to branch office status. Perhaps one of our Scottish-based contributors can provide more info.
Labour is not currently polling well in Scotland , but it reains well above the 13%/14% levels being recorded at the beginning of May 2017. The most recent polls for a Westminster election give them circa 23% - a point behind the Tories and similar to ratings a week before polling day in June 2017. This is in the context also of Labour's recent GB -wide dip which may have been now partly reversed. People also need to be aware that since 2015 polls have pretty consistently overestimated SNP support as reflected in actual results at Holyrood in 2016, Local Elections in May 2017 and Westminster in June 2017.
On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.
Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees.
Sounds rather nice.
It's idyllic - after 10 years I love it more than ever.
You are a very, very lucky man. Sigh.
I'd recommend it to anyone - but it's a choice more than luck - there are downsides and I sacrificed a lot for many years to ensure my financial security. Lots of things you take for granted in the UK are different - just 2 examples: no house insurance and you get a bill from the fire brigade if they are needed. Go into hospital and relatives are expected to provide basic care [ even in the private hospitals. There are others but for me well compensated by all the pluses - food /climate/scenery/people...
You are way down south, aren't you? If I was ever going to move back, it would be to somewhere further north - Leon, Soria or Huesca. I love the harsh emptiness of those places, the huge skies, the mountains, the rough wine and the heavy food. Andalucia has never really done it for me. The Spanish is indecipherable for starters! But my plan is much more likely to involve moving to the English coast. I really would miss our weather. Not a lot of people say that!
Yup -I'm in the South East - Europe's only desert region. But we do very well here on wine and rustic food as well as the finer dining options where we are. I've been taught the Spanish of Valladolid and yes it's not quite like the locals speak down here but it is 'proper Spanish'. Spain is a very big country with great variety in climate as well as culture. The meseta norte - where you would like has quite harsh winters to contend with so not for us but some great cities for w/e visits.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.
She was responsible for the Windrush fiasco. And that was cruel.
How is she responsible for something that started under a Labour government? The oldest reported case is now 17 years old.
Yes, she should have fixed Labours mess earlier - but at least this government has moved to put it right.
King Cole, wasn't the relevant paperwork pointlessly destroyed during the last Labour government?
Some of it certainly. I suspect no-one then expected the sort of policies we saw under May's tenure of the Home Office.
It's one of my criticisms of the Coalition that Clegg didn't insist on one of the Great Offices, and I suspect that, given the personalities involved, May would have been the one that Cameron dumped.
To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.
The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc
Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.
This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.
May will pull her Deal vote and prepare for a 2 year delay to Brexit and extension of Article 50 if the numbers are not there and European elections would be held in June.
A new poll for those European elections if held puts Labour on 23%, the Tories on 16% and Farage's new Brexit Party on 14%
The Tiggers would have to stand as it would enable them to do a UKIP strategy. Get money to fund staff and them spend most of the time campaigning in the UK not Brussels.
TIGGERs could stand as it is PR which would help them or they could just leave it to the LDs, Labour would face a challenge from the Remain liberal left and the Tories from the pro Brexit right
It seems to me impossible to imagine how Labour can do significantly well in Scotland while the centre right/Unionists have good reason to vote Tory (and no sensible alternative) and both Unionists and Independence supporters on the centre left think that the SNP will represent Scottish interests better than Labour can. As long as the centre left in Scotland votes SNP there can't be a Labour government unless it is in coalition with the SNP. Ot's a win/win to vote something other than Labour.
To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.
The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc
Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.
This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.
I'm not saying that will happen I think 4 losses to the SNP is more/most likely (am only confident of Labour holding Edinburgh S, East Lothian and possibly Coatbridge) depends on many factors like turnout etc.
I think the result in Scotland will be somewhere between SNP 40% Con 27% Lab 23% and SNP 34% Lab 30% and Con 29% with the former scenario more likely but the latter not being able to be completely ruled out
I actually believe the latter scenario is more likely if Labour is competitive at GB level. The Tories are unlikely to poll 29% - their support has probably peaked in Scotland.
Parris said much the same anout May in a recent Times article.
That's some diatribe. A lot of abuse in a very small space.
Are the sheep of rural Derbyshire getting agitated?
At least we are still talking, despite the goonocracy; the French would have burnt down the Cafe Royal by now.
Parris is truly deranged. He was on Rado 4 yesterday afternoon claiming MPs should not have to answer to either their constituency parties or their electorate. Apparently the Tory party must impose MPs on constituencies and their views are irrelevant.
People also need to be aware that since 2015 polls have pretty consistently overestimated SNP support as reflected in actual results at Holyrood in 2016, Local Elections in May 2017 and Westminster in June 2017.
Absolutely, people just haven't paid sufficient attention to the 271 occasions you've made this point previously. A few dozen more times should do it.
It seems to me impossible to imagine how Labour can do significantly well in Scotland while the centre right/Unionists have good reason to vote Tory (and no sensible alternative) and both Unionists and Independence supporters on the centre left think that the SNP will represent Scottish interests better than Labour can. As long as the centre left in Scotland votes SNP there can't be a Labour government unless it is in coalition with the SNP. Ot's a win/win to vote something other than Labour.
As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader I agree they need the SNP to get into power, I cannot see a Corbyn led Labour Party ever winning a majority or even most seats in England but Corbyn could get into power still propped up by Welsh Labour and Scottish SNP MPs
If we ever get to the situation where we've left I actually don't care which wing if the party the next leader comes from as long as it isn't Grieve, JRM or Boris. I can live with the rest and anyone else would be better than May.
The Grieve wing of the Conservative party no longer exists outside of Parliament. The only way to become Tory leader from now on will be to pander to the Fuck Business English nationalist right. It won't be a big issue for the Tories as long as the far left controls the Labour party, but it will leave a huge vacuum in British politics that will eventually be filled.
Don't be ridiculous, that's like saying the only way to become Labour leader once Jez leaves is to be a terrorist sympathising anti-Semite. It's a fun caricutre of the party but obviously not true.
The Grieve wing is very small, but that's no bad thing.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.
She was responsible for the Windrush fiasco. And that was cruel.
Also these, but I'm sure she was just being cruel to be kind.
Parris said much the same anout May in a recent Times article.
That's some diatribe. A lot of abuse in a very small space.
Are the sheep of rural Derbyshire getting agitated?
At least we are still talking, despite the goonocracy; the French would have burnt down the Cafe Royal by now.
Parris is truly deranged. He was on Rado 4 yesterday afternoon claiming MPs should not have to answer to either their constituency parties or their electorate. Apparently the Tory party must impose MPs on constituencies and their views are irrelevant.
It's just an acknowledgment that his Conservatives - the patrician One-Nation-As-Long-As-That-Nation-Is-Europe wing - are having a really tough time of it.
It says that the Remain vote in Eng&W was heavily clustered in postcode areas which are largely Remain, but the Leave vote is more evenly spread. This explains why Leavers are more tolerant of Remainers than vice versa, and why Leavers were less surprised by the result.
It's seriously flawed. You can flip it the other way and argue that the majority of Leave voters live in majority Leave areas, whereas the majority of Remain voters live in areas where they were outnumbered on June 23rd, therefore .
The problem with that theory is "Remain voters are more likely to be in touch with the concerns of the other side".
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.
She was responsible for the Windrush fiasco. And that was cruel.
I can't claim to be objective on this, but the worst I think you could say is it was uncaring and incompetent. Cruelty requires a much more active role than not thinking through all the implications of a course of action.
She knew exactly what she was doing and showed she totally lacked any milk of human kindness and total disregard of the impact on innocent people. It was well thought out and enacted as well as any despot could have done. Nasty piece of work.
It says that the Remain vote in Eng&W was heavily clustered in postcode areas which are largely Remain, but the Leave vote is more evenly spread. This explains why Leavers are more tolerant of Remainers than vice versa, and why Leavers were less surprised by the result.
It's seriously flawed. You can flip it the other way and argue that the majority of Leave voters live in majority Leave areas, whereas the majority of Remain voters live in areas where they were outnumbered on June 23rd, therefore .
The problem with that theory is "Remain voters are more likely to be in touch with the concerns of the other side".
They don't give a toss.
Legitimate concerns I accept , myths peddled by the right wing press no I don’t . I deal in facts if Leavers don’t provide them and just parrot Express sound bites then they have no argument and should be ignored .
To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.
The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc
Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.
This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.
She was responsible for the Windrush fiasco. And that was cruel.
How is she responsible for something that started under a Labour government? The oldest reported case is now 17 years old.
Yes, she should have fixed Labours mess earlier - but at least this government has moved to put it right.
you mean some window dressing, any examples of redress or people being given passports and brought back.
Parris said much the same anout May in a recent Times article.
That's some diatribe. A lot of abuse in a very small space.
Are the sheep of rural Derbyshire getting agitated?
At least we are still talking, despite the goonocracy; the French would have burnt down the Cafe Royal by now.
Parris is truly deranged. He was on Rado 4 yesterday afternoon claiming MPs should not have to answer to either their constituency parties or their electorate. Apparently the Tory party must impose MPs on constituencies and their views are irrelevant.
It's just an acknowledgment that his Conservatives - the patrician One-Nation-As-Long-As-That-Nation-Is-Europe wing - are having a really tough time of it.
To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.
The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc
Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.
This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.
I do not bet at all - but have read your repeated comments on here in May 2017. Doubtless your current predictions will prove just as accurate.
Parris said much the same anout May in a recent Times article.
That's some diatribe. A lot of abuse in a very small space.
Are the sheep of rural Derbyshire getting agitated?
At least we are still talking, despite the goonocracy; the French would have burnt down the Cafe Royal by now.
Parris is truly deranged. He was on Rado 4 yesterday afternoon claiming MPs should not have to answer to either their constituency parties or their electorate. Apparently the Tory party must impose MPs on constituencies and their views are irrelevant.
It's just an acknowledgment that his Conservatives - the patrician One-Nation-As-Long-As-That-Nation-Is-Europe wing - are having a really tough time of it.
Good. It's them as has got us here.
Agreed.
In a dark corner of what remains of its political brain, the Tory party knows that it is collectively guilty of driving the country it professes to love into this shaming mess. With a few prescient exceptions, the Conservatives all backed David Cameron when he promised a referendum on the cynical basis that he might not have to deliver it and with the arrogant assumption that, if he did have to, he would easily win it. Leading Tories fronted a Leave campaign that peddled fantasy promises that could never be realised. Since Mrs May came up with a deal that tried to reconcile withdrawal with realities, she has been repeatedly sabotaged by the political arsonists in Jacob Rees-Mogg’s gang. Her party has had several opportunities to remove Mrs May and it has always passed up the chance. This is not because there is any shortage of Tories who ache with ambition for the job; it is because no one has really wanted to take on the job while the Brexit torture endures. It has suited them all to keep Mrs May at Number 10 as their human sponge.
To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.
The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc
Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.
This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.
I do not bet at all - but have read your repeated comments on here in May 2017. Doubtless your current predictions will prove just as accurate.
People also need to be aware that since 2015 polls have pretty consistently overestimated SNP support as reflected in actual results at Holyrood in 2016, Local Elections in May 2017 and Westminster in June 2017.
Absolutely, people just haven't paid sufficient attention to the 271 occasions you've made this point previously. A few dozen more times should do it.
It says that the Remain vote in Eng&W was heavily clustered in postcode areas which are largely Remain, but the Leave vote is more evenly spread. This explains why Leavers are more tolerant of Remainers than vice versa, and why Leavers were less surprised by the result.
I thought it interesting as well, but I'm not as convinced by his conclusions because I think people talk to more people in their work area than at their home area, and the two are not the same. I don't know if that thought is true or not, but regardless I still like the article.
The article has a bar chart showing the skew. It's a nice chart but it's a little difficult to interpret. If it helps, the y-axis is the total number of referendum voters in that area (Leave and Remain combined) and the x-axis is %age of Leave vote in the area. For example
* The little sticky-up bar on the extreme left has a height of 0.2 and a label on the bottom of 1. That means that 200,000 people who actually voted in the referendum live in an area that voted 99%Remain, 1%Leave
* When he says that "a large number of local communities (comprising half-a-million voters in total) exist where almost the entire postcode voted 90 per cent upwards for Remain", he means that if you look at the four bars on the left and add up the heights 0.2+0.1+0.1+0.1, it comes to 0.5, which is 500,000 people, which is the "half-a-million voters in total" he is talking about. The labels of those bars are 1,4,6 and 9, which means that Leave were 1%, 4%, 6% or 9% of the vote in those areas.
To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.
The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc
Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.
This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.
I do not bet at all - but have read your repeated comments on here in May 2017. Doubtless your current predictions will prove just as accurate.
why you spouting rubbish on a betting site then
Who spouted the best quality rubbish on here in May/June 2017?
After a bit of volatility, the Betfair odds for No second referendum (in 2019) and Donald Trump renominated have returned to almost precise parity. I continue to find this oddly fascinating.
It's a astonishing how quickly they're crumbling. Presumably it was just posturing but then they finally realized these things would have catastrophic consequences and panic set in. There can be no other explanation.
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.
Tragic and pathetic . Talk about a public relations own goal . They should just cancel it to save further humiliation.
If you try to do something and it obviously isn't working that is the sensible thing to do.
Around 200 marched from Jarrow on the original. So 70 is not completely different ball park.
The difference of course is that the 200 had a specific localised issue they were marching to London to alert the powers that be (albeit an issue that affected a lot of the country).
Much as I loath Leaver means Leave nonsense, I can see them pressing on and picking up a lot more in the South.
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.
Much as I like this theory, I need to point out that it absolutely pissed down on London on Referendum day.
Tragic and pathetic . Talk about a public relations own goal . They should just cancel it to save further humiliation.
If you try to do something and it obviously isn't working that is the sensible thing to do.
Around 200 marched from Jarrow on the original. So 70 is not completely different ball park.
The difference of course is that the 200 had a specific localised issue they were marching to London to alert the powers that be (albeit an issue that affected a lot of the country).
Much as I loath Leaver means Leave nonsense, I can see them pressing on and picking up a lot more in the South.
The Jarrow marchers didn't pre-announce that their march was going to be supported by epic numbers.
I get the impression Corbyn doesn't appear to know what his Brexit strategy is until he's just finished his previous sentence. A complete dogs breakfast of a "we are all things to all people" nonsense.
Everyone's always said that Corbyn made his mind up about a lot of things when he was young, and generally speaking he's stuck to his views. He was a Bennite in the 70's and 80's, which meant he was opposed to the Common Market, because, as I recall it, it would prevent the development of a Socialist Britain. So why would anyone seriously think he's modified his views that much in later life?
Corbyn does not seem to care very much about the EU either way; he gave it 7 out of 10, iirc, which is about as far as David Cameron went.
It's what he said to me - he'd previously been against because he saw it as reinforcing free market liberalism, but he felt that now there were more progressive forces in Europe to ally with so he'd changed his mind, without great enthusiasm. Exactly what he went on to say in public.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.
She was responsible for the Windrush fiasco. And that was cruel.
Also these, but I'm sure she was just being cruel to be kind.
It's a astonishing how quickly they're crumbling. Presumably it was just posturing but then they finally realized these things would have catastrophic consequences and panic set in. There can be no other explanation.
They are realising, at least the sane ones, the choice is the Deal or No Brexit at all or BINO, however the question is are there enough sane Brexiteers to enable the Deal to scrape over the line?
Tragic and pathetic . Talk about a public relations own goal . They should just cancel it to save further humiliation.
If you try to do something and it obviously isn't working that is the sensible thing to do.
Around 200 marched from Jarrow on the original. So 70 is not completely different ball park.
The difference of course is that the 200 had a specific localised issue they were marching to London to alert the powers that be (albeit an issue that affected a lot of the country).
Much as I loath Leaver means Leave nonsense, I can see them pressing on and picking up a lot more in the South.
Insofar as I know much about it, I believe the Jarrow marchers received a lot of material support and positive attention on their way down, these people just seem to be receiving ridicule.
Comments
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1107217832419438592
So why would anyone seriously think he's modified his views that much in later life?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/17/protesters-invade-serbian-state-tv-amid-demonstrations-across-balkans
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
"It was the longest 30 minutes of my life."
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/theresa-may-s-brexit-disaster-a-1258101.html
The lower tier is a bit marginal - in Ashfield, also in Notts, the County take about 70%. Not clear why giving them more control would reduce it.
They are trying to centralise it at the moment, but the last thing I want is to be run from b***** West Bridgford 25 miles away. I saw the process in Shropshire when Hazel Blears was abolishing districts to centralise everything back in 2006, and it was a total dog's breakfast.
I've been telling all the first-time-in-a-generation Tory canvassers who are suddenly interested in Mansfield/Ashfield that if they support single tier they'll never get my local vote.
I love that the Bassetlaw COuncil Tax web page does not actually tell you what the bill will be.
https://www.bassetlaw.gov.uk/council-tax/
Are the sheep of rural Derbyshire getting agitated?
At least we are still talking, despite the goonocracy; the French would have burnt down the Cafe Royal by now.
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
She also didn’t lift a finger when Nick Timothy tried to get a civil servant reprimanded with whom Timothy had clashed.
Do you know the reason Timothy tried to get the civil servant sacked?
For breaking the civil service neutrality code. The crime? For tweeting Ed Balls good luck on Strictly.
I could list many more examples of her rudeness.
A new poll for those European elections if held puts Labour on 23%, the Tories on 16% and Farage's new Brexit Party on 14%
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8654149/theresa-may-ditch-deal-two-year-brexit-delay/
But she is unable to draw people to her and lead a team and that is a fatal flaw in a PM.
The problem I have is that some of what he's saying seems so over the top (misguided maybe, but surely not stupid?), it makes me automatically question the motives behind saying the rest. As people have said below, driven mad by Brexit.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/03/the-brexit-paradox-that-spells-doom-for-the-independent-group/amp/
It says that the Remain vote in Eng&W was heavily clustered in postcode areas which are largely Remain, but the Leave vote is more evenly spread. This explains why Leavers are more tolerant of Remainers than vice versa, and why Leavers were less surprised by the result.
Yes, she should have fixed Labours mess earlier - but at least this government has moved to put it right.
It's one of my criticisms of the Coalition that Clegg didn't insist on one of the Great Offices, and I suspect that, given the personalities involved, May would have been the one that Cameron dumped.
M&S plans big store shift towards weekly food shop
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47602566
This is more media nonsense and the line being peddled by no 10 to force through the deal .
I think at max it will be a year to allow a change of leader and negotiation reset . May will resign as soon as she’s secured the extension .
https://twitter.com/Sideshow_Matt/status/1105786383178874880
Good. It's them as has got us here.
They don't give a toss.
https://twitter.com/SirMustard/status/1107237689814863876
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/17/well-done-brexit-ultras--the-european-union-has-never-had-more-power-over-britain
The article has a bar chart showing the skew. It's a nice chart but it's a little difficult to interpret. If it helps, the y-axis is the total number of referendum voters in that area (Leave and Remain combined) and the x-axis is %age of Leave vote in the area. For example
* The little sticky-up bar on the extreme left has a height of 0.2 and a label on the bottom of 1. That means that 200,000 people who actually voted in the referendum live in an area that voted 99%Remain, 1%Leave
* When he says that "a large number of local communities (comprising half-a-million voters in total) exist where almost the entire postcode voted 90 per cent upwards for Remain", he means that if you look at the four bars on the left and add up the heights 0.2+0.1+0.1+0.1, it comes to 0.5, which is 500,000 people, which is the "half-a-million voters in total" he is talking about. The labels of those bars are 1,4,6 and 9, which means that Leave were 1%, 4%, 6% or 9% of the vote in those areas.
The difference of course is that the 200 had a specific localised issue they were marching to London to alert the powers that be (albeit an issue that affected a lot of the country).
Much as I loath Leaver means Leave nonsense, I can see them pressing on and picking up a lot more in the South.