People also need to be aware that since 2015 polls have pretty consistently overestimated SNP support as reflected in actual results at Holyrood in 2016, Local Elections in May 2017 and Westminster in June 2017.
Absolutely, people just haven't paid sufficient attention to the 271 occasions you've made this point previously. A few dozen more times should do it.
Justin 124 is very consistent.
I think "anally retentive" is what you are looking for.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.
She was responsible for the Windrush fiasco. And that was cruel.
Also these, but I'm sure she was just being cruel to be kind.
A home secretary who wants to impose the rule of law and arrest criminals? Whatever next?
LOL, you halfwit , they were not catching the criminals, they were too busy chucking out people who were British Citizens whilst dog whistling with their vans.
It does mean that a lot of shops will have to move location to make sense, the pedestrian area of most towns isn't convenient for even a small shop..
Tough on anyone without a car.
Well, yes. You wonder how quick bus routes will be to keep up.
In Cannock, our new retail park is being built next to the station, but I can't shake the nagging feeling that's a happy accident (or unhappy for anyone who has to commute past the sodding roadworks.)
To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.
The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc
Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.
This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.
I do not bet at all - but have read your repeated comments on here in May 2017. Doubtless your current predictions will prove just as accurate.
why you spouting rubbish on a betting site then
Who spouted the best quality rubbish on here in May/June 2017?
Guaranteed it was not you that is for sure. Weaselling out with "I do not bet" says it all. Full of wind and piss.
To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.
The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc
Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.
This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.
I do not bet at all - but have read your repeated comments on here in May 2017. Doubtless your current predictions will prove just as accurate.
why you spouting rubbish on a betting site then
Who spouted the best quality rubbish on here in May/June 2017?
Guaranteed it was not you that is for sure. Weaselling out with "I do not bet" says it all. Full of wind and piss.
Probably most people on here do not bet. That does not make it invalid to judge the forecasts made by particular contributors. The confidence of your May 2017 predictions rather stood out - as did those of quite a few others.
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.
She was responsible for the Windrush fiasco. And that was cruel.
Also these, but I'm sure she was just being cruel to be kind.
A home secretary who wants to impose the rule of law and arrest criminals? Whatever next?
LOL, you halfwit , they were not catching the criminals, they were too busy chucking out people who were British Citizens whilst dog whistling with their vans.
"Halfwit" from you feels almost like a compliment
I can only say that I wish May was showing half the cunning you seem to ascribe to her on immigration, in getting Brexit over the line. I don't think she's either cruel or stupid, but I think the evidence suggests she's unlikely to be both.
Sure, shall we take all our jobs and investments with us?
Unfortunately you reap what you sow, given the comments recently from England re Brexit insulting the Irish, I am amazed you think them returning the favour is odd.
It's a astonishing how quickly they're crumbling. Presumably it was just posturing but then they finally realized these things would have catastrophic consequences and panic set in. There can be no other explanation.
Nobody wants to accept the blame for No Deal.
Nobody wants to accept the blame for not implementing the Referendum. Labour especially don't want to be painted as the reason for it when Tory MPs fall into line.
Nobody can negotiate with the EU by March 29th - and no indication they could if given years and years extension.
Nobody wants to accept the blame for lost jobs due to an extension of many many months/years.
Plus, we have a Parliament of Fuckwits and Spineless Gimps with the imagination of a caravan site. Really, what do you expect?
Sure, shall we take all our jobs and investments with us?
Unfortunately you reap what you sow, given the comments recently from England re Brexit insulting the Irish, I am amazed you think them returning the favour is odd.
I'm pretty sure Brexit was not the reason for that (thinks for a minute) large-sheet-with-slogan-on- it (godsdammit, what is the word for that?)
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.
She was responsible for the Windrush fiasco. And that was cruel.
Also these, but I'm sure she was just being cruel to be kind.
A home secretary who wants to impose the rule of law and arrest criminals? Whatever next?
LOL, you halfwit , they were not catching the criminals, they were too busy chucking out people who were British Citizens whilst dog whistling with their vans.
"Halfwit" from you feels almost like a compliment
I can only say that I wish May was showing half the cunning you seem to ascribe to her on immigration, in getting Brexit over the line. I don't think she's either cruel or stupid, but I think the evidence suggests she's unlikely to be both.
you may be right and she is just in fact be stupid and promoted well beyond her capabilities, regardless she is a disaster. Though I doubt she thought much about the implications on the public re her actions.
It's a astonishing how quickly they're crumbling. Presumably it was just posturing but then they finally realized these things would have catastrophic consequences and panic set in. There can be no other explanation.
Nobody wants to accept the blame for No Deal.
Nobody wants to accept the blame for not implementing the Referendum. Labour especially don't want to be painted as the reason for it when Tory MPs fall into line.
Nobody can negotiate with the EU by March 29th - and no indication they could if given years and years extension.
Nobody wants to accept the blame for lost jobs due to an extension of many many months/years.
Plus, we have a Parliament of Fuckwits and Spineless Gimps with the imagination of a caravan site. Really, what do you expect?
You could probably have stopped after 'Nobody wants to accept the blame'.
However Brexit pans out, I predict oodles of culpa and fuck all mea for the next few years.
There are benefits? I'd love to know exactly what he thinks these are.
It ends free movement, ensures control of about 80% of our economy etc
I think Stark and the Brexit pixie were both talking about the benefits of the European Union. I too am interested to know what Hannan regards as the benefits.
Sure, shall we take all our jobs and investments with us?
Unfortunately you reap what you sow, given the comments recently from England re Brexit insulting the Irish, I am amazed you think them returning the favour is odd.
I'm pretty sure Brexit was not the reason for that (thinks for a minute) large-sheet-with-slogan-on- it (godsdammit, what is the word for that?)
It was very childish but in current febrile situation I do not find it a surprise. People in UK have gone stark raving mad and have infected people in other countries in the process.
Sure, shall we take all our jobs and investments with us?
Unfortunately you reap what you sow, given the comments recently from England re Brexit insulting the Irish, I am amazed you think them returning the favour is odd.
I'm pretty sure Brexit was not the reason for that (thinks for a minute) large-sheet-with-slogan-on- it (godsdammit, what is the word for that?)
Well, it's St Patrick's. Someone else who came from England and tried to help the Irish....
To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.
The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc
Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.
This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.
I do not bet at all - but have read your repeated comments on here in May 2017. Doubtless your current predictions will prove just as accurate.
why you spouting rubbish on a betting site then
Who spouted the best quality rubbish on here in May/June 2017?
Guaranteed it was not you that is for sure. Weaselling out with "I do not bet" says it all. Full of wind and piss.
Nothing Ng controversial about what Justin is predicting. it may or may or not happen, no real reason why Labour cannot gain Glasgow SW, Glasgow E, Dunfermline etc on a tiny swing from the SNP maybe even if their vote is down slightly overall where a tiny amount of tactical voting could even come in.
The deal will either crash and burn this week or scrape through and implode when it has to be incorporated into the WAIB.
None of the media seem to be talking about the Bill needed and seem to have ignored that . It’s likely that will turn into another drama .
Any legislation in that to appease the DUP will narrow UK options in terms of trade outside of the EU . They want the same relationship with the single market and CU as the rest of the UK.
You can’t square the circle of the backstop with that.
I get the impression Corbyn doesn't appear to know what his Brexit strategy is until he's just finished his previous sentence. A complete dogs breakfast of a "we are all things to all people" nonsense.
Everyone's always said that Corbyn made his mind up about a lot of things when he was young, and generally speaking he's stuck to his views. He was a Bennite in the 70's and 80's, which meant he was opposed to the Common Market, because, as I recall it, it would prevent the development of a Socialist Britain. So why would anyone seriously think he's modified his views that much in later life?
Corbyn does not seem to care very much about the EU either way; he gave it 7 out of 10, iirc, which is about as far as David Cameron went.
It's what he said to me - he'd previously been against because he saw it as reinforcing free market liberalism, but he felt that now there were more progressive forces in Europe to ally with so he'd changed his mind, without great enthusiasm. Exactly what he went on to say in public.
Ah honest Jeremy Corbyn pro European, anti-racist, for the many not the j. oops! few. He really is the salt of the earth.
The deal will either crash and burn this week or scrape through and implode when it has to be incorporated into the WAIB.
None of the media seem to be talking about the Bill needed and seem to have ignored that . It’s likely that will turn into another drama .
Any legislation in that to appease the DUP will narrow UK options in terms of trade outside of the EU . They want the same relationship with the single market and CU as the rest of the UK.
You can’t square the circle of the backstop with that.
No once the deal gets through the Meaningful Vote the bill will rapidly progress. It will have already passed the Commons once so will again while the Lords won't want to be seen to risk a crash out of block this.
Sure, shall we take all our jobs and investments with us?
Unfortunately you reap what you sow, given the comments recently from England re Brexit insulting the Irish, I am amazed you think them returning the favour is odd.
I'm pretty sure Brexit was not the reason for that (thinks for a minute) large-sheet-with-slogan-on- it (godsdammit, what is the word for that?)
It was very childish but in current febrile situation I do not find it a surprise. People in UK have gone stark raving mad and have infected people in other countries in the process.
To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc uncertainty.
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.
I do not bet at all - but have read your repeated comments on here in May 2017. Doubtless your current predictions will prove just as accurate.
why you spouting rubbish on a betting site then
Who spouted the best quality rubbish on here in May/June 2017?
Guaranteed it was not you that is for sure. Weaselling out with "I do not bet" says it all. Full of wind and piss.
Nothing Ng controversial about what Justin is predicting. it may or may or not happen, no real reason why Labour cannot gain Glasgow SW, Glasgow E, Dunfermline etc on a tiny swing from the SNP maybe even if their vote is down slightly overall where a tiny amount of tactical voting could even come in.
I did not say that was controversial and indeed could be likely, I objected to his stalking and the demented mantra he keeps adding to my posts re my thought that SNP would get 50 Mp's last time. I know it did not pan out that way. He is a balloon, he does it constantly hoping to upset me but it just confirms my opinion that he is a bellend of the first order and further confirmed by his being unwilling to back up his big talk with his money, preferring to whine from the sidelines.
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.
Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
Sure, shall we take all our jobs and investments with us?
Unfortunately you reap what you sow, given the comments recently from England re Brexit insulting the Irish, I am amazed you think them returning the favour is odd.
I'm pretty sure Brexit was not the reason for that (thinks for a minute) large-sheet-with-slogan-on- it (godsdammit, what is the word for that?)
It was very childish but in current febrile situation I do not find it a surprise. People in UK have gone stark raving mad and have infected people in other countries in the process.
PS Banner
Thank you. I forget words. Still, google helps.
I almost said placard at first and had to think a bit.
There are benefits? I'd love to know exactly what he thinks these are.
It ends free movement, ensures control of about 80% of our economy etc
I think Stark and the Brexit pixie were both talking about the benefits of the European Union. I too am interested to know what Hannan regards as the benefits.
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.
Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.
Never thought we would see EU election polls for the UK again.
If we are going to hold these polls - which are self standing 3 weeks after the local polls - local authorities and the parties are going to need to get moving soon.
How will each party pick the people on their list - by membership ballot or central diktat.
Will there be any remainers/ERG supporters at the top of the Tory lists?
Will the 17% UKIP vote stay with UKIP or go to the Farage Brexit party. For example half the UKIP MEPs left in Brussels (there aren't many left with the UKIP label!) still sit with Farage in his group while Batten has moved over to the Le Pen/Salvini ENF group. If the two parties split the 17% they may struggle to get any seats outside possibly the huge South east region
Will the Tiggers run their own slate - or link up with the Lib Dems?
Will Momentum decide who is on the Labour list - with a potential purge of their existing MEPs as is planned for the London Assembly?
What will happen in Wales, Scotland and NI?
This first national 'people's vote' since we didn't leave on 29 March could be interesting. Its the perfect protest vehicle for people hacked off with the main parties - as its almost risk free. People can vote for their first choice - not the lesser of two evils as they are forced to under FPTP.
I normally agree with Daniel Hannan (even when I was a Remainer I found him intelligent and thought provoking unlike most sceptic dingbats like Farage). But even as a bitter opponent of the deal I think this is wrong.
Clearly after the transition we lose most of the costs. Including quite literally the cost. We also get most of the benefits of leaving.
I oppose the deal on principle as I find the backstop an unconscionable infringement of our human rights. Which to me trumps all other cost/benefit arguments. Had it not been for the backstop the cost/benefit ratio is this is a great deal.
The deal will either crash and burn this week or scrape through and implode when it has to be incorporated into the WAIB.
None of the media seem to be talking about the Bill needed and seem to have ignored that . It’s likely that will turn into another drama .
Any legislation in that to appease the DUP will narrow UK options in terms of trade outside of the EU . They want the same relationship with the single market and CU as the rest of the UK.
You can’t square the circle of the backstop with that.
Much more appeasement of the DUP will be counterproductive in terms of votes at the locals.
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.
Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.
There are benefits? I'd love to know exactly what he thinks these are.
It ends free movement, ensures control of about 80% of our economy etc
I think Stark and the Brexit pixie were both talking about the benefits of the European Union. I too am interested to know what Hannan regards as the benefits.
His salary for starters
You cynical little mugwump you.
He actually represents me, and a great many other people, in the European Parliament. We should look at the size of EU constituencies for the EU Parliament when we get back in/when Brexit has been cancelled. I don't think it is working well for democratic accountability.
"He actually represents me, and a great many other people, in the European Parliament. We should look at the size of EU constituencies for the EU Parliament when we get back in/when Brexit has been cancelled. I don't think it is working well for democratic accountability."
I tend to agree on this point - some of our constituencies have as few as 3 seats (North east and NI) yet the North west and London have 8 and the south east 10. I can see you can't do much about Wales, Scotland and NI - but surely the English regions should all have roughly the same numbers of MEPs.
At present you need over 30% of the vote to elect an MEP in the north east but less than 10% in the south east. So smaller parties stand far more chance of electing MEPs in some areas (e.g. London and the SE) than others - and thus the national outcome is not as proportional as it should be. This is evident from 2014 - where the Lib Dems won only one seat in the south east region as it was the largest constituency. Too late for 2019 - but if we are still members in 2024....
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.
Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.
How the thunderstorms were centred over the south and se . London’s turnout was lower than many other areas. That was a key Remain area .
The highest leave voting areas were dry . The voters in the C2DE demographic came out in higher numbers than expected , they’re also more likely to be effected by the weather in terms of intention to vote .
Not saying Remain would have won as the turnouts in Scotland and NI weren’t great . But it would have been closer .
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.
Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.
How the thunderstorms were centred over the south and se . London’s turnout was lower than many other areas. That was a key Remain area .
The highest leave voting areas were dry . The voters in the C2DE demographic came out in higher numbers than expected , they’re also more likely to be effected by the weather in terms of intention to vote .
Not saying Remain would have won as the turnouts in Scotland and NI weren’t great . But it would have been closer .
The paper said that the rain made no difference to remain areas of the South East but it may have depressed turnout in leave areas of the South East.
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.
Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.
How the thunderstorms were centred over the south and se . London’s turnout was lower than many other areas. That was a key Remain area .
The highest leave voting areas were dry . The voters in the C2DE demographic came out in higher numbers than expected , they’re also more likely to be effected by the weather in terms of intention to vote .
Not saying Remain would have won as the turnouts in Scotland and NI weren’t great . But it would have been closer .
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.
Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.
How the thunderstorms were centred over the south and se . London’s turnout was lower than many other areas. That was a key Remain area .
The highest leave voting areas were dry . The voters in the C2DE demographic came out in higher numbers than expected , they’re also more likely to be effected by the weather in terms of intention to vote .
Not saying Remain would have won as the turnouts in Scotland and NI weren’t great . But it would have been closer .
Sad sad thought about New Zealand. The violent battle between Islamists and far right terrorists will only worsen, and intensify.
Compare Ulster. The Islamists are the IRA, the white supremacists are the Loyalists: the inevitable, bloody and hideous reaction.
Seems a completely over the top comparison. There is no Islamist threat in NZ as far as I can see, probably not much of a right wing threat either - the ringleader was apparently Australian. Maybe that's not what you meant and were referring to the world as a whole rather than comparing NZ to NI? PS Started reading 'The Ice Twins'
Sad sad thought about New Zealand. The violent battle between Islamists and far right terrorists will only worsen, and intensify.
Compare Ulster. The Islamists are the IRA, the white supremacists are the Loyalists: the inevitable, bloody and hideous reaction.
Seems a completely over the top comparison. There is no Islamist threat in NZ as far as I can see, probably not much of a right wing threat either - the ringleader was apparently Australian. Maybe that's not what you meant and were referring to the world as a whole rather than comparing NZ to NI? PS Started reading 'The Ice Twins'
Barely a 'ringleader' either. Did he have more than one or two accomplices? And do we know yet if they were Kiwi or Aussie?
And I don't think there's much of a comparison with Ulster, either. Both sides there have a comprehensible political dimension as well as a gang of psychotic hangers-on.
I presume 'Brex' is the Brexit party? Do they even exist except online - odd that despite all those walkouts on climate change by schoolkids last week they are already matching the Greens.
Taking a break from the march Farage did his Sunday morning radio show earlier. He had Michael Portillo on for the first 30 minutes - discussing everything from Brexit to the cancellation of This Week. Portillo is always worth a listen - whether its on politics or on train journeys to exotic and less exotic destinations.
Perhaps he could team up with Joanna Lumley once his TW duties end in the summer!
To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc uncertainty.
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.
I do not bet at all - but have read your repeated comments on here in May 2017. Doubtless your current predictions will prove just as accurate.
why you spouting rubbish on a betting site then
Who spouted the best quality rubbish on here in May/June 2017?
Guaranteed it was not you that is for sure. Weaselling out with "I do not bet" says it all. Full of wind and piss.
Nothing Ng controversial about what Justin is predicting. it may or may or not happen, no real reason why Labour cannot gain Glasgow SW, Glasgow E, Dunfermline etc on a tiny swing from the SNP maybe even if their vote is down slightly overall where a tiny amount of tactical voting could even come in.
I did not say that was controversial and indeed could be likely, I objected to his stalking and the demented mantra he keeps adding to my posts re my thought that SNP would get 50 Mp's last time. I know it did not pan out that way. He is a balloon, he does it constantly hoping to upset me but it just confirms my opinion that he is a bellend of the first order and further confirmed by his being unwilling to back up his big talk with his money, preferring to whine from the sidelines.
Well this bellend did predict that the SNP would struggle to hold 40 seats in 2017 - and that Labour could well end up on 4 or 5. Not perfect - but better than most forecasts.
Sad sad thought about New Zealand. The violent battle between Islamists and far right terrorists will only worsen, and intensify.
Compare Ulster. The Islamists are the IRA, the white supremacists are the Loyalists: the inevitable, bloody and hideous reaction.
Seems a completely over the top comparison. There is no Islamist threat in NZ as far as I can see, probably not much of a right wing threat either - the ringleader was apparently Australian. Maybe that's not what you meant and were referring to the world as a whole rather than comparing NZ to NI? PS Started reading 'The Ice Twins'
Yes I was taking the western world as a whole. Which is fair, I think. Islamism sees the entire kaffir world as a target; the white guy in New Zealand said his target could’ve been anywhere.
Comments
In Cannock, our new retail park is being built next to the station, but I can't shake the nagging feeling that's a happy accident (or unhappy for anyone who has to commute past the sodding roadworks.)
I can only say that I wish May was showing half the cunning you seem to ascribe to her on immigration, in getting Brexit over the line. I don't think she's either cruel or stupid, but I think the evidence suggests she's unlikely to be both.
Nobody wants to accept the blame for not implementing the Referendum. Labour especially don't want to be painted as the reason for it when Tory MPs fall into line.
Nobody can negotiate with the EU by March 29th - and no indication they could if given years and years extension.
Nobody wants to accept the blame for lost jobs due to an extension of many many months/years.
Plus, we have a Parliament of Fuckwits and Spineless Gimps with the imagination of a caravan site. Really, what do you expect?
However Brexit pans out, I predict oodles of culpa and fuck all mea for the next few years.
PS Banner
None of the media seem to be talking about the Bill needed and seem to have ignored that . It’s likely that will turn into another drama .
Any legislation in that to appease the DUP will narrow UK options in terms of trade outside of the EU . They want the same relationship with the single market and CU as the rest of the UK.
You can’t square the circle of the backstop with that.
He is a balloon, he does it constantly hoping to upset me but it just confirms my opinion that he is a bellend of the first order and further confirmed by his being unwilling to back up his big talk with his money, preferring to whine from the sidelines.
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
If we are going to hold these polls - which are self standing 3 weeks after the local polls - local authorities and the parties are going to need to get moving soon.
How will each party pick the people on their list - by membership ballot or central diktat.
Will there be any remainers/ERG supporters at the top of the Tory lists?
Will the 17% UKIP vote stay with UKIP or go to the Farage Brexit party. For example half the UKIP MEPs left in Brussels (there aren't many left with the UKIP label!) still sit with Farage in his group while Batten has moved over to the Le Pen/Salvini ENF group. If the two parties split the 17% they may struggle to get any seats outside possibly the huge South east region
Will the Tiggers run their own slate - or link up with the Lib Dems?
Will Momentum decide who is on the Labour list - with a potential purge of their existing MEPs as is planned for the London Assembly?
What will happen in Wales, Scotland and NI?
This first national 'people's vote' since we didn't leave on 29 March could be interesting. Its the perfect protest vehicle for people hacked off with the main parties - as its almost risk free. People can vote for their first choice - not the lesser of two evils as they are forced to under FPTP.
Clearly after the transition we lose most of the costs. Including quite literally the cost.
We also get most of the benefits of leaving.
I oppose the deal on principle as I find the backstop an unconscionable infringement of our human rights. Which to me trumps all other cost/benefit arguments. Had it not been for the backstop the cost/benefit ratio is this is a great deal.
He actually represents me, and a great many other people, in the European Parliament. We should look at the size of EU constituencies for the EU Parliament when we get back in/when Brexit has been cancelled. I don't think it is working well for democratic accountability.
Compare Ulster. The Islamists are the IRA, the white supremacists are the Loyalists: the inevitable, bloody and hideous reaction.
F1: watched the highlights covering the bit of the race I missed earlier.
Pretty good opening race, I thought.
The Scotland sub-samples look weird
SCon 34-> 25% when TIG prompted
SLab 17-> 8%
Libdem 0-> 4% (OK that I can accept)
TIG 4%
SNP 44-> 51% ??
I tend to agree on this point - some of our constituencies have as few as 3 seats (North east and NI) yet the North west and London have 8 and the south east 10. I can see you can't do much about Wales, Scotland and NI - but surely the English regions should all have roughly the same numbers of MEPs.
At present you need over 30% of the vote to elect an MEP in the north east but less than 10% in the south east. So smaller parties stand far more chance of electing MEPs in some areas (e.g. London and the SE) than others - and thus the national outcome is not as proportional as it should be. This is evident from 2014 - where the Lib Dems won only one seat in the south east region as it was the largest constituency. Too late for 2019 - but if we are still members in 2024....
The highest leave voting areas were dry . The voters in the C2DE demographic came out in higher numbers than expected , they’re also more likely to be effected by the weather in terms of intention to vote .
Not saying Remain would have won as the turnouts in Scotland and NI weren’t great . But it would have been closer .
LAB: 31% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+1)
UKIP: 6% (+3)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)
Theresa May is...
Competent: 39% (-6)
Incompetent: 46% (+8)
Trustworthy: 36% (-3)
Untrustworthy: 45% (+5)
Strong: 35% (+5)
Weak: 50% (-)
Likeable: 32% (+2)
Dislikeable: 46% (+1)
via @YouGov, 14 - 15 Mar
Chgs. w/ 27 Sep
Remain Conservative leader: 33%
Get the Fook out of here: 45%
via @YouGov, 14 - 15 Mar
There is no Islamist threat in NZ as far as I can see, probably not much of a right wing threat either - the ringleader was apparently Australian.
Maybe that's not what you meant and were referring to the world as a whole rather than comparing NZ to NI?
PS Started reading 'The Ice Twins'
And I don't think there's much of a comparison with Ulster, either. Both sides there have a comprehensible political dimension as well as a gang of psychotic hangers-on.
I presume 'Brex' is the Brexit party? Do they even exist except online - odd that despite all those walkouts on climate change by schoolkids last week they are already matching the Greens.
Taking a break from the march Farage did his Sunday morning radio show earlier. He had Michael Portillo on for the first 30 minutes - discussing everything from Brexit to the cancellation of This Week. Portillo is always worth a listen - whether its on politics or on train journeys to exotic and less exotic destinations.
Perhaps he could team up with Joanna Lumley once his TW duties end in the summer!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EioHdkKWDs
https://twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1107287621208805376
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/australia-post-race-analysis-2019.html
https://twitter.com/HeroOfHornska/status/1104051065836720128
PS enjoy the ice twins!