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  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    If Joe Biden's pb backers needed a reminder that their man is gaffe-prone:
    Joe Biden appeared to announce his candidacy for the 2020 US election, before immediately correcting himself.

    The former vice-president made the slip while addressing 1,000 Democrats at a dinner in his home state of Delaware.

    He said his record was the most progressive "of anyone running for the United-" before correcting himself and saying, "anybody who would run".

    The audience stood up and chanted "run Joe run", while Mr Biden crossed himself and said, "I didn't mean it!"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47601121
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    It is a truth universally unacknowledged that in most Leave seats most Remain voters were Labour voters and most Leave voters weren’t.

    Labour’s Brexit position is designed solely to accommodate the pro-Leave leadership team. And everyone knows this.

    Yes, because despite the LDs and despite TIG they dont think many remainers will go anywhere else. The drying up of stories on Tig and no more defections prove that the leadership are probably right.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Brexiteers this morning seem VERY upset that Parliament Took Back Control last week...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 300, and I live in a one-bedroom flat, but it's based on valuation and as it's Surrey everywhere is overvalued.

    Enjoyed Foxy's rejoinder though!
    Well you would wouldn't you. Its not relevanty to a discussion about local taxation, notwithstanding the fact that the Govt has been reducing support to local councils. .. mainly as a result of Brown's lunacy and the appalling deficit bequeathed.
    When you say Brown's lunacy, you are simply rewarming CCHQ's attack lines from 2010. That would be the global financial crisis which started in America, from which Brown led the recovery and bequeathed a recovering economy to the Tories, only for Osborne's Plan A to flatline it. Remember Ed Balls's hand gestures?
    Brown bequeathed an 156 billion annual deficit. end of.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    kle4 said:

    It is a truth universally unacknowledged that in most Leave seats most Remain voters were Labour voters and most Leave voters weren’t.

    Labour’s Brexit position is designed solely to accommodate the pro-Leave leadership team. And everyone knows this.

    Yes, because despite the LDs and despite TIG they dont think many remainers will go anywhere else. The drying up of stories on Tig and no more defections prove that the leadership are probably right.

    They don’t have to go anywhere. They can just stay at home. That’s what I’ll probably be doing in my constituency, where Labour’s majority is less than 1,000.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    kle4 said:

    It is a truth universally unacknowledged that in most Leave seats most Remain voters were Labour voters and most Leave voters weren’t.

    Labour’s Brexit position is designed solely to accommodate the pro-Leave leadership team. And everyone knows this.

    Yes, because despite the LDs and despite TIG they dont think many remainers will go anywhere else. The drying up of stories on Tig and no more defections prove that the leadership are probably right.
    For people who are really upset about Brexit and/or left wing, Labour is the only option outside Scotland.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    But it doesn't compare to a sunny early spring day in Blighty, all bursting buds and birdong, seeing the sun for the first time in what seems like weeks....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited March 2019
    malcolmg said:

    On topic, thanks to Alastair for the detailed analysis.Without knowing much about Scottish politics, it seems likely that the unionist parties have difficulty setting the Scottish agenda in the way that the SNP can, both by their special focus and by being in government. A separate Scottish Labour Party might be a good idea - I know the Tories have flirted with it.

    There are 18 Scottish seats in Labour’s top 65 target list. Right now, the polling indicates that Labour is on course to lose at least six of the seven seats it currently holds. There are many reasons why Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election. Scotland is certainly one of them.

    My understanding is that Scottish Labour was in the process of developing a separate identity, but that since the election of Richard Leonard as leader it has reverted to branch office status. Perhaps one of our Scottish-based contributors can provide more info.

    SO , they are really just a sub regional office and whilst on a few odd occasions they have talked about a separate identity it has always been squashed by London. They have no money and would not survive on their own. In the last year they lost 20% of members and spent over £5K to raise funds of less than £5K. They elect London puppets as leader , current one is absolutely useless, only 40% of Labour supporters recognised his name. They are in a death spiral and have no policies, only vote against SNP. They often vote against or abstain on their own motions they are so bad. Yet they still believe they should rule Scotland , it beggars belief.
    One wonders what would happened
    , how they would have reacted, had they kept only or even lost the one they held onto in 2015. It took the Tories a long time to come back from where they sank to. Winning back more right away was a surprise but did it lead to complacency?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    eek said:
    A large part of May's broad spectrum dislikability is that she is hard to categorise. Blair and Cameron were bullshitting chancers of the type that's we've all encountered many times. They were, admittedly, highly developed specimens of the genus but represented a known archetype. Brown was simply the living embodiment of Wodehouse's aphorism about a Scot and a ray of sunshine. May however is a curious blend of earnest, dishonest, awkward, stubborn and not that bright. A very rare Pokemon indeed.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Having traced part of my family back to an original Quaker back in c.1650, I now discover that the other branch of the family was, let's say, rather more successful than ours. Successful, wealthy, and compassionate...
  • On topic, thanks to Alastair for the detailed analysis.Without knowing much about Scottish politics, it seems likely that the unionist parties have difficulty setting the Scottish agenda in the way that the SNP can, both by their special focus and by being in government. A separate Scottish Labour Party might be a good idea - I know the Tories have flirted with it.

    There are 18 Scottish seats in Labour’s top 65 target list. Right now, the polling indicates that Labour is on course to lose at least six of the seven seats it currently holds. There are many reasons why Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election. Scotland is certainly one of them.

    My understanding is that Scottish Labour was in the process of developing a separate identity, but that since the election of Richard Leonard as leader it has reverted to branch office status. Perhaps one of our Scottish-based contributors can provide more info.

    Scotland was the only part of the UK where the Labour membership backed Smith over Corbyn. Leonard is a Corbyn enthusiast.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    Sounds rather nice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    It is a truth universally unacknowledged that in most Leave seats most Remain voters were Labour voters and most Leave voters weren’t.

    Labour’s Brexit position is designed solely to accommodate the pro-Leave leadership team. And everyone knows this.

    Yes, because despite the LDs and despite TIG they dont think many remainers will go anywhere else. The drying up of stories on Tig and no more defections prove that the leadership are probably right.

    They don’t have to go anywhere. They can just stay at home. That’s what I’ll probably be doing in my constituency, where Labour’s majority is less than 1,000.

    That is their risk, sure, a problem the Tories also face. But how much will others hate the Tories and find themselves unable to let them win by not backing the alternative? Huge numbers returned last time rather than let that happen.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    eek said:
    Frightening article. But her time as Home Secretary included some unnecessarily cruel actions.
    Remarkable - Parris's comments are startling from a Tory loyalist on the record, but in a way the Danish PM's are more striking, as he's a serving centre-right leader of a strongly pro-British country.

    I think May is quite widely respected by the wider public - they don't feel she's quite up to the task, but they recognise that the task is difficult, and they prefer her to her rivals. But it does seem that she barely has an inner circle at all.
    May has never had a natural constituency of support. She obtained power and held on to power because of who she wasn't - Leadsom and Boris respectively. Nobody really wanted her there - they just wanted others less. It's no real surprise how she has turned out.

    I strongly suspect that the next PM and leader will be chosen on the same basis. Probably with similar woeful results....
    Is that quite correct? You are right that May never had much personal support, she did in political terms represent the bulk of the party's traditional supporters in the country: the JAMs rather than the Cameroons who were just slightly posher Blairites; the small business people and volunteers who'd been collateral damage in the omnishambles budget. To paraphrase Neil Kinnock, they'd got their party back. May's mistake was she did not aim to build on that by reaching out to backbenchers.

    Well, that and triggering Article 50 without bothering to establish where we wanted to end up, let alone how to get there. The Prime Minister should first have established a commission, as should Cameron. Brexit means Brexit is a slogan, not a policy, but since New Labour at least, we've been ruled by politicians who cannot tell the difference.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:

    Brexiteers this morning seem VERY upset that Parliament Took Back Control last week...

    Push that line all you want it didn't do that. They might yet but haven't.

    Though they are angry about the no deal vote I am sure.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    It is a truth universally unacknowledged that in most Leave seats most Remain voters were Labour voters and most Leave voters weren’t.

    Labour’s Brexit position is designed solely to accommodate the pro-Leave leadership team. And everyone knows this.

    Yes, because despite the LDs and despite TIG they dont think many remainers will go anywhere else. The drying up of stories on Tig and no more defections prove that the leadership are probably right.
    For people who are really upset about Brexit and/or left wing, Labour is the only option outside Scotland.
    Still a very crap option though, be tough knowing that was your only option. If I was in England I could not vote for any of the establishment parties, all are shades of crap.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    I'm not sure that's the right word for it. If it works, which is still tricky, it's more like she dug in like a limpet and they wore themselves out trying to pry her loose before giving up in exhaustion.
  • kle4 said:

    Another “May’s deal or no Brexit” article:

    https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1107212477463449600?s=20

    I'd love to play chess with these guys. I'm not a good player at all, but even I am able to think at least one move ahead, unlike them.
    I do play chess competitively. With clocks. The trick is knowing when you can look one move ahead and when you need to look several moves ahead. If you look too many moves ahead, when you only really need to consider one move, you run out of time.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    ydoethur said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Foxy said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    I know. I pay several thousand pounds of income tax per month and have never used Trident missiles once. It's outrageous.
    This is local taxation we are talking about not national Govt./ If you are paying that amount of tax you can damn well pay for Trident. I am a pensioner who HAS to work.
    Most police funding is from national government.
    So is most local government funding. The problem is Labour made huge spending commitments without then increasing the grant, and the Tories have now cut the grants without reducing the commitments. Northamptonshire shows where that ends.
    Labour significantly increased the grant over their time in office (up by something like 80%).
    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/7447/1622439.pdf
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    eek said:
    Frightening article. But her time as Home Secretary included some unnecessarily cruel actions.
    Remarkable - Parris's comments are startling from a Tory loyalist on the record, but in a way the Danish PM's are more striking, as he's a serving centre-right leader of a strongly pro-British country.

    I think May is quite widely respected by the wider public - they don't feel she's quite up to the task, but they recognise that the task is difficult, and they prefer her to her rivals. But it does seem that she barely has an inner circle at all.
    May has never had a natural constituency of support. She obtained power and held on to power because of who she wasn't - Leadsom and Boris respectively. Nobody really wanted her there - they just wanted others less. It's no real surprise how she has turned out.

    I strongly suspect that the next PM and leader will be chosen on the same basis. Probably with similar woeful results....
    Is that quite correct? You are right that May never had much personal support, she did in political terms represent the bulk of the party's traditional supporters in the country: the JAMs rather than the Cameroons who were just slightly posher Blairites; the small business people and volunteers who'd been collateral damage in the omnishambles budget. To paraphrase Neil Kinnock, they'd got their party back. May's mistake was she did not aim to build on that by reaching out to backbenchers.

    Well, that and triggering Article 50 without bothering to establish where we wanted to end up, let alone how to get there. The Prime Minister should first have established a commission, as should Cameron. Brexit means Brexit is a slogan, not a policy, but since New Labour at least, we've been ruled by politicians who cannot tell the difference.
    There was no rejoicing when May got the job. Brexiteers and Remainers alike, both went "oh well...."
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    Mr. JohnL, it's almost as if we had a recession coming anyway, and poor financial regulation (in a system invented by Brown) mishandling banks that were lending to people who had no business borrowing money.

    And you neglect to mention/recall that Brown brought forward a shedload of spending to try and boost GDP figures ahead of the election, as well as bequeathing a deficit of around £200bn.

    We're still paying interest on the debt, mostly accumulated by Brown's recession (the worst in British history) of around £50bn a year, almost the sum total of the Education and Defence budgets combined.

    Yeah now look at what happened in the rest of the world. Clearly you are not giving Brown credit for sidestepping the global financial crisis only to fall into a quite separate recession at precisely the same time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    As reckless as May's plans. If that is true it demonstrates the truth of the guess of what Corbyn's best outcome was from the start- deal through (or at least to referendum in this case) but because of rebels who could then take the blame.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It is a truth universally unacknowledged that in most Leave seats most Remain voters were Labour voters and most Leave voters weren’t.

    Labour’s Brexit position is designed solely to accommodate the pro-Leave leadership team. And everyone knows this.

    Yes, because despite the LDs and despite TIG they dont think many remainers will go anywhere else. The drying up of stories on Tig and no more defections prove that the leadership are probably right.

    They don’t have to go anywhere. They can just stay at home. That’s what I’ll probably be doing in my constituency, where Labour’s majority is less than 1,000.

    That is their risk, sure, a problem the Tories also face. But how much will others hate the Tories and find themselves unable to let them win by not backing the alternative? Huge numbers returned last time rather than let that happen.
    In the end, keeping out the Tories will trump every other consideration, until time itself is no more.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    But it doesn't compare to a sunny early spring day in Blighty, all bursting buds and birdong, seeing the sun for the first time in what seems like weeks....
    Lol - it kinda does actually.. but nice try.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    Sounds rather nice.
    It's idyllic - after 10 years I love it more than ever.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    kle4 said:


    An intellectual Titan strides among us...

    Is it me?

    One can always hope.
    Your secret’s safe with me!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    kle4 said:

    As reckless as May's plans. If that is true it demonstrates the truth of the guess of what Corbyn's best outcome was from the start- deal through (or at least to referendum in this case) but because of rebels who could then take the blame.
    And also implies that even if the WA was backed in a referendum , Labour would find reasons to oppose it in Parliament.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Our council tax is circa £250 per month. Band C Newcastle upon Tyne.

    My salary has certainly not been keeping up with its increase.

    Ow. That is double what it is in Northumberland. Also Band C.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    Mr. JohnL, it's almost as if we had a recession coming anyway, and poor financial regulation (in a system invented by Brown) mishandling banks that were lending to people who had no business borrowing money.

    And you neglect to mention/recall that Brown brought forward a shedload of spending to try and boost GDP figures ahead of the election, as well as bequeathing a deficit of around £200bn.

    We're still paying interest on the debt, mostly accumulated by Brown's recession (the worst in British history) of around £50bn a year, almost the sum total of the Education and Defence budgets combined.

    Yeah now look at what happened in the rest of the world. Clearly you are not giving Brown credit for sidestepping the global financial crisis only to fall into a quite separate recession at precisely the same time.
    Any credit going deserves to go to Darling. Brown was a financial disaster area.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,875
    edited March 2019
    malcolmg said:

    kfowkes said:

    malcolmg said:

    kfowkes said:

    There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.
    I'm not saying that will happen I think 4 losses to the SNP is more/most likely (am only confident of Labour holding Edinburgh S, East Lothian and possibly Coatbridge) depends on many factors like turnout etc.

    I think the result in Scotland will be somewhere between SNP 40% Con 27% Lab 23% and SNP 34% Lab 30% and Con 29% with the former scenario more likely but the latter not being able to be completely ruled out


    It is hard to see Tories taking seats from SNP and impossible to imagine labour holding what they have never mind gaining. Would be shocking if SNP did not gain seats in my opinion given they are head and shoulders above both and the best of a very poor lot. However as we have seen in the past there are many thick sheeple in Scotland.
    I will be surprised if the Tories do not take North Perthshire and, probably, Aberdeen North next time. Edinburgh North and Leith is also a possibility if Labour do badly. But there are risks of offsetting losses as well. At the moment I see net gains or losses for the Tories in Scotland being a lot more modest than last time out not changing their UK picture much.

    Labour are in a funny position in Scotland, the exact opposite of which they used to enjoy. There are a large number of marginals where they fell just short making their vote incredibly inefficient, particularly in the Glasgow area. It is very hard to see a surge with the present leadership, indeed I agree with you that they are more likely to go backwards rather than forwards. As Alastair points out this makes them even being the largest party incredibly difficult.

    I found it very odd that Labour had their conference in Dundee recently. This area is dead to them now. If I was in charge of Labour I would focusing on Glasgow pretty much to the exclusion of everything else and doing everything I could to increase profile in that City.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    felix said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    But it doesn't compare to a sunny early spring day in Blighty, all bursting buds and birdong, seeing the sun for the first time in what seems like weeks....
    Lol - it kinda does actually.. but nice try.
    You're right. It's now pissing down...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    It is a truth universally unacknowledged that in most Leave seats most Remain voters were Labour voters and most Leave voters weren’t.

    Labour’s Brexit position is designed solely to accommodate the pro-Leave leadership team. And everyone knows this.

    Yes, because despite the LDs and despite TIG they dont think many remainers will go anywhere else. The drying up of stories on Tig and no more defections prove that the leadership are probably right.

    They don’t have to go anywhere. They can just stay at home. That’s what I’ll probably be doing in my constituency, where Labour’s majority is less than 1,000.

    That is their risk, sure, a problem the Tories also face. But how much will others hate the Tories and find themselves unable to let them win by not backing the alternative? Huge numbers returned last time rather than let that happen.

    The UK will have Brexited by the time the next GE takes place. That will release a lot of 2017 Labour voters from any need to vote Labour to stop the kind of Brexit the Tories were promising to deliver back then. Given the electoral maths, it does not have to be huge numbers for it to have a huge difference - especially given the way Scotland is heading.

    The Tories certainly face the risk of losing votes to the left and right, too. But Corbyn remains an immensely strong calling card for them.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    On topic, thanks to Alastair for the detailed analysis.Without knowing much about Scottish politics, it seems likely that the unionist parties have difficulty setting the Scottish agenda in the way that the SNP can, both by their special focus and by being in government. A separate Scottish Labour Party might be a good idea - I know the Tories have flirted with it.

    There are 18 Scottish seats in Labour’s top 65 target list. Right now, the polling indicates that Labour is on course to lose at least six of the seven seats it currently holds. There are many reasons why Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election. Scotland is certainly one of them.

    My understanding is that Scottish Labour was in the process of developing a separate identity, but that since the election of Richard Leonard as leader it has reverted to branch office status. Perhaps one of our Scottish-based contributors can provide more info.

    Scotland was the only part of the UK where the Labour membership backed Smith over Corbyn. Leonard is a Corbyn enthusiast.

    Yes, he is. As is the new Welsh leader. It is interesting that since he took over Labour polling in Wales is starting to decline.

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300



    Well you would wouldn't you. Its not relevanty to a discussion about local taxation, notwithstanding the fact that the Govt has been reducing support to local councils. .. mainly as a result of Brown's lunacy and the appalling deficit bequeathed.

    :Like you I'm a pensioner who needs to work, but I do think the central government cuts are to blame for soaring council tax (who is responsible for those is a separate argument).
    Not having a pop at you but this is part of the problem: a ruling class which needs to maintain a far higher standard of living than most of the population. That's how you end up with Brexit or Macron.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    edited March 2019

    eek said:
    Frightening article. But her time as Home Secretary included some unnecessarily cruel actions.
    Remarkable - Parris's comments are startling from a Tory loyalist on the record, but in a way the Danish PM's are more striking, as he's a serving centre-right leader of a strongly pro-British country.

    I think May is quite widely respected by the wider public - they don't feel she's quite up to the task, but they recognise that the task is difficult, and they prefer her to her rivals. But it does seem that she barely has an inner circle at all.
    May has never had a natural constituency of support. She obtained power and held on to power because of who she wasn't - Leadsom and Boris respectively. Nobody really wanted her there - they just wanted others less. It's no real surprise how she has turned out.

    I strongly suspect that the next PM and leader will be chosen on the same basis. Probably with similar woeful results....
    Is that quite correct? You are right that May never had much personal support, she did in political terms represent the bulk of the party's traditional supporters in the country: the JAMs rather than the Cameroons who were just slightly posher Blairites; the small business people and volunteers who'd been collateral damage in the omnishambles budget. To paraphrase Neil Kinnock, they'd got their party back. May's mistake was she did not aim to build on that by reaching out to backbenchers.

    Well, that and triggering Article 50 without bothering to establish where we wanted to end up, let alone how to get there. The Prime Minister should first have established a commission, as should Cameron. Brexit means Brexit is a slogan, not a policy, but since New Labour at least, we've been ruled by politicians who cannot tell the difference.
    There was no rejoicing when May got the job. Brexiteers and Remainers alike, both went "oh well...."
    Quite a few of us who had been following her progress as Home Secretary actually went "oh shit..."
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    kle4 said:

    As reckless as May's plans. If that is true it demonstrates the truth of the guess of what Corbyn's best outcome was from the start- deal through (or at least to referendum in this case) but because of rebels who could then take the blame.
    Which part of no-one wants responsibility for the end result has not been obvious for the past 18 months.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    Sounds rather nice.
    It's idyllic - after 10 years I love it more than ever.

    You are a very, very lucky man. Sigh.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    If Corbyns "priority is making sure that the UK doesn't 'crash out' of Europe on March 29", he would back May's Deal.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    If only there was an international system of Freedom of Movement, so that the rest of us could enjoy that :)
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Even if Theresa May is kind, thoughtful and altruistic, we've moved beyond the point where that matters. With less than a fortnight to go before 29th March, only policies and politics count.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Regarding Matthew Parris, I think a lot of Tory remainers like himself and Dominic Grieve privately expected Theresa May and the Conservative Party in general to find a way around Brexit in the three years since the referendum was held. That explains why they were so sanguine at the time, just after the referendum, and why they are so annoyed now. The party hasn't found a way to block Brexit in the way they were hoping and expecting.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Esher McVey on Pienaar now. Not coming across quite as prime-ministerial as she might have hoped.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Even if Theresa May is kind, thoughtful and altruistic, we've moved beyond the point where that matters. With less than a fortnight to go before 29th March, only policies and politics count.
    Then why was her horribleness being brought up?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    AndyJS said:

    Regarding Matthew Parris, I think a lot of Tory remainers like himself and Dominic Grieve privately expected Theresa May and the Conservative Party in general to find a way around Brexit in the three years since the referendum was held. That explains why they were so sanguine at the time, just after the referendum, and why they are so annoyed now. The party hasn't found a way to block Brexit in the way they were hoping and expecting.

    I think it's more that they were expecting a pro-business, pragmatic solution rather than three years of pandering to the English nationalist hard right. They can see what May's strategy has done to the Tory's traditional selling points and that the party's UKIPIfication means a completely different set of these will need to be delivered. All the contenders for the leadership clearly get this, too.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    edited March 2019
    AndyJS said:

    The party hasn't found a way to block Brexit...

    Are you sure about that?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    AndyJS said:

    Regarding Matthew Parris, I think a lot of Tory remainers like himself and Dominic Grieve privately expected Theresa May and the Conservative Party in general to find a way around Brexit in the three years since the referendum was held. That explains why they were so sanguine at the time, just after the referendum, and why they are so annoyed now. The party hasn't found a way to block Brexit in the way they were hoping and expecting.

    Another element to some of the Tory critique of May is simply misogyny - there are some Tory men who still can’t take being subservient to a woman - fewer than Thatcher had to put up with, but they’re still there.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    btw. Day 2 of the March to Leave: 77 starters this am apparently.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Even if Theresa May is kind, thoughtful and altruistic, we've moved beyond the point where that matters. With less than a fortnight to go before 29th March, only policies and politics count.

    Who’s got superior alternatives?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    I'd actually love to have a conversation with the likes of JRM and find out how they can justify voting down MV3 knowing that rejection of it leads to remaining in the EU.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    AndyJS said:

    Regarding Matthew Parris, I think a lot of Tory remainers like himself and Dominic Grieve privately expected Theresa May and the Conservative Party in general to find a way around Brexit in the three years since the referendum was held. That explains why they were so sanguine at the time, just after the referendum, and why they are so annoyed now. The party hasn't found a way to block Brexit in the way they were hoping and expecting.

    Another element to some of the Tory critique of May is simply misogyny - there are some Tory men who still can’t take being subservient to a woman - fewer than Thatcher had to put up with, but they’re still there.
    It was only a matter of time before that line was trotted out. Yawn ...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    If only there was an international system of Freedom of Movement, so that the rest of us could enjoy that :)

    Don't worry, Mr Foxy - there is. It's called having enough money. Ending FoM will not affect you (or me). It's those whose dreams of a life in the sun were predicated on having the air fare and enough money to pay the rent that are going to lose the opportunities FoM presents.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741
    kle4 said:

    Even if Theresa May is kind, thoughtful and altruistic, we've moved beyond the point where that matters. With less than a fortnight to go before 29th March, only policies and politics count.
    Then why was her horribleness being brought up?
    Her horribleness is why she is such a poor negotiator, both with the EU and with Parliament.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    eek said:
    Parris said much the same anout May in a recent Times article.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    btw. Day 2 of the March to Leave: 77 starters this am apparently.

    Been named “The Gammonball Run” by some of the less sympathetic observers.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008

    Esher McVey on Pienaar now. Not coming across quite as prime-ministerial as she might have hoped.

    I'm sure her hair looks lovely though.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    If we ever get to the situation where we've left I actually don't care which wing if the party the next leader comes from as long as it isn't Grieve, JRM or Boris. I can live with the rest and anyone else would be better than May.
  • MaxPB said:

    I'd actually love to have a conversation with the likes of JRM and find out how they can justify voting down MV3 knowing that rejection of it leads to remaining in the EU.

    They don't want to leave. They want to continue moaning about the EU, and take over the smoking ruins of the Conservative Party.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    If Corbyns "priority is making sure that the UK doesn't 'crash out' of Europe on March 29", he would back May's Deal.....
    It's quite revealing in its way, considering how carefully it would have been thought out. I remember finding the hard left anti-EU case quite compelling back in the eighties. But it was always framed in the same way Corbyn just did. The argument was always that the relationship with the EU as it was constituted at the time was not in the interests of the UK. It was never the near religious conviction of the current crop of Brexiteers. The possibility of the EU changing enough to become acceptable was always left open. It explains both why a lot of left wingers, including MacDonnel, have been able to switch to remain without much difficulty and why it hasn't caused huge rifts. And there has been traffic in the opposite direction of course with David Owen switching to leave.

    Calm and rational debate about the issue isn't really available right now. But I think it is good that there is at least one shade of opinion where it hasn't driven everyone mad.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    I'd actually love to have a conversation with the likes of JRM and find out how they can justify voting down MV3 knowing that rejection of it leads to remaining in the EU.

    They don't want to leave. They want to continue moaning about the EU, and take over the smoking ruins of the Conservative Party.
    There won't be a conservative party left to take over if we remain.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    btw. Day 2 of the March to Leave: 77 starters this am apparently.

    Let's not write it off. Could be a slow burner. In particular it still has to pass through Essex. I can see it picking up half a million good people there.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,387
    AndyJS said:

    Regarding Matthew Parris, I think a lot of Tory remainers like himself and Dominic Grieve privately expected Theresa May and the Conservative Party in general to find a way around Brexit in the three years since the referendum was held. That explains why they were so sanguine at the time, just after the referendum, and why they are so annoyed now. The party hasn't found a way to block Brexit in the way they were hoping and expecting.

    Parris started going unhinged in 2014, with his article slagging off the inhabitants of Clacton.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Outed.

    How long will the millennial Remainers keep chanting for this fraud?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    AndyJS said:

    Regarding Matthew Parris, I think a lot of Tory remainers like himself and Dominic Grieve privately expected Theresa May and the Conservative Party in general to find a way around Brexit in the three years since the referendum was held. That explains why they were so sanguine at the time, just after the referendum, and why they are so annoyed now. The party hasn't found a way to block Brexit in the way they were hoping and expecting.

    Well they did their best to lose the election in 2017. Okay it didn't work, but it was a damn good try.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Outed.

    How long will the millennial Remainers keep chanting for this fraud?
    Oh Jeremey Fraudbin!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,725
    kinabalu said:

    btw. Day 2 of the March to Leave: 77 starters this am apparently.

    Let's not write it off. Could be a slow burner. In particular it still has to pass through Essex. I can see it picking up half a million good people there.
    In their wisdom it doesn't go anywhere near Essex.

    https://www.marchtoleave.com/route
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    But it doesn't compare to a sunny early spring day in Blighty, all bursting buds and birdong, seeing the sun for the first time in what seems like weeks....
    Lol - it kinda does actually.. but nice try.
    You're right. It's now pissing down...
    Sorry - we get under 30 rainy days all year. Last one was in January.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1107234463082340353

    Labour again not going beyond 4 % point deficit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    MaxPB said:

    I'd actually love to have a conversation with the likes of JRM and find out how they can justify voting down MV3 knowing that rejection of it leads to remaining in the EU.

    ...whilst beating them around the head with an inflated puffer fish. Just in case that might add some clarity.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    kinabalu said:

    btw. Day 2 of the March to Leave: 77 starters this am apparently.

    Let's not write it off. Could be a slow burner. In particular it still has to pass through Essex. I can see it picking up half a million good people there.
    In their wisdom it doesn't go anywhere near Essex.

    https://www.marchtoleave.com/route
    It amazed me they chose to have a stopover in Beaconsfield when they could have made it to Slough. I have a feeling that they will find the highly remainy burghers of Beaconsfield have barricaded the local Waitrose and brasseries against them.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    Sounds rather nice.
    It's idyllic - after 10 years I love it more than ever.

    You are a very, very lucky man. Sigh.

    I'd recommend it to anyone - but it's a choice more than luck - there are downsides and I sacrificed a lot for many years to ensure my financial security. Lots of things you take for granted in the UK are different - just 2 examples: no house insurance and you get a bill from the fire brigade if they are needed. Go into hospital and relatives are expected to provide basic care [ even in the private hospitals. There are others but for me well compensated by all the pluses - food /climate/scenery/people...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622

    AndyJS said:

    Regarding Matthew Parris, I think a lot of Tory remainers like himself and Dominic Grieve privately expected Theresa May and the Conservative Party in general to find a way around Brexit in the three years since the referendum was held. That explains why they were so sanguine at the time, just after the referendum, and why they are so annoyed now. The party hasn't found a way to block Brexit in the way they were hoping and expecting.

    Another element to some of the Tory critique of May is simply misogyny - there are some Tory men who still can’t take being subservient to a woman - fewer than Thatcher had to put up with, but they’re still there.
    May's gender has nothing to do with it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    MaxPB said:

    If we ever get to the situation where we've left I actually don't care which wing if the party the next leader comes from as long as it isn't Grieve, JRM or Boris. I can live with the rest and anyone else would be better than May.

    The Grieve wing of the Conservative party no longer exists outside of Parliament. The only way to become Tory leader from now on will be to pander to the Fuck Business English nationalist right. It won't be a big issue for the Tories as long as the far left controls the Labour party, but it will leave a huge vacuum in British politics that will eventually be filled.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    felix said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    Sounds rather nice.
    It's idyllic - after 10 years I love it more than ever.

    You are a very, very lucky man. Sigh.

    I'd recommend it to anyone - but it's a choice more than luck - there are downsides and I sacrificed a lot for many years to ensure my financial security. Lots of things you take for granted in the UK are different - just 2 examples: no house insurance and you get a bill from the fire brigade if they are needed. Go into hospital and relatives are expected to provide basic care [ even in the private hospitals. There are others but for me well compensated by all the pluses - food /climate/scenery/people...
    How on earth do the cope with a load of relatives hanging around every bed in a hospital trying to provide basic care? Sounds bonkers.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    If only there was an international system of Freedom of Movement, so that the rest of us could enjoy that :)
    To be fair you don't need FOM to do what I did - you do need to be financially secure however. Even with FOM life is much harder if you lack a decent income/pension. There is no free lunch here - if you are under retirement age there are zero benefits without a work record.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    MaxPB said:

    I'd actually love to have a conversation with the likes of JRM and find out how they can justify voting down MV3 knowing that rejection of it leads to remaining in the EU.

    It's because they believe tosh like this
    https://brexitcentral.com/ignore-nay-sayers-heres-still-course-clean-brexit-29th-march/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    If we ever get to the situation where we've left I actually don't care which wing if the party the next leader comes from as long as it isn't Grieve, JRM or Boris. I can live with the rest and anyone else would be better than May.

    The Grieve wing of the Conservative party no longer exists outside of Parliament. The only way to become Tory leader from now on will be to pander to the Fuck Business English nationalist right. It won't be a big issue for the Tories as long as the far left controls the Labour party, but it will leave a huge vacuum in British politics that will eventually be filled.

    Don't be ridiculous, that's like saying the only way to become Labour leader once Jez leaves is to be a terrorist sympathising anti-Semite. It's a fun caricutre of the party but obviously not true.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    But it doesn't compare to a sunny early spring day in Blighty, all bursting buds and birdong, seeing the sun for the first time in what seems like weeks....
    Lol - it kinda does actually.. but nice try.
    You're right. It's now pissing down...
    Sorry - we get under 30 rainy days all year. Last one was in January.
    I quite like rain. Guess I'll not be moving to Spain.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Observer, I'd dispute your implication that the only parts of the PCP are Grieve-types and ERGers.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    So it is looking quite good now for the Absolute Girl getting the Withdrawal Agreement passed. A close defeat at MV3 then a win at MV4 is one way, but there must be a risk that Bercow would not allow a 4. Therefore perhaps she would be better pulling next week's vote, going to the Summit, then coming back and presenting one final choice of Brexit via the WA or swallow a long extension. Defer MV3 to the very last gasp, in other words, and thus maximize her chances of winning it.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Outed.

    How long will the millennial Remainers keep chanting for this fraud?
    You are failing to grasp the nature of the Corbyn ousia. If he says leave the is way to go large numbers of the faithful will switch.

    It will be interesting to see if Palmer can keep up the charade that JC is, "on balance", pro EU.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    felix said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    Sounds rather nice.
    It's idyllic - after 10 years I love it more than ever.

    You are a very, very lucky man. Sigh.

    I'd recommend it to anyone - but it's a choice more than luck - there are downsides and I sacrificed a lot for many years to ensure my financial security. Lots of things you take for granted in the UK are different - just 2 examples: no house insurance and you get a bill from the fire brigade if they are needed. Go into hospital and relatives are expected to provide basic care [ even in the private hospitals. There are others but for me well compensated by all the pluses - food /climate/scenery/people...

    You are way down south, aren't you? If I was ever going to move back, it would be to somewhere further north - Leon, Soria or Huesca. I love the harsh emptiness of those places, the huge skies, the mountains, the rough wine and the heavy food. Andalucia has never really done it for me. The Spanish is indecipherable for starters! But my plan is much more likely to involve moving to the English coast. I really would miss our weather. Not a lot of people say that!

  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,435
    edited March 2019

    ‪This week Ireland will secure victory over the DUP and the ERG, so demonstrating the power EU membership confers. Happy St Patrick’s Day!

    Couldn't beat the bloody Welsh at something far more important than Brexit though!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    Sounds rather nice.
    It's idyllic - after 10 years I love it more than ever.

    You are a very, very lucky man. Sigh.

    I'd recommend it to anyone - but it's a choice more than luck - there are downsides and I sacrificed a lot for many years to ensure my financial security. Lots of things you take for granted in the UK are different - just 2 examples: no house insurance and you get a bill from the fire brigade if they are needed. Go into hospital and relatives are expected to provide basic care [ even in the private hospitals. There are others but for me well compensated by all the pluses - food /climate/scenery/people...
    How on earth do the cope with a load of relatives hanging around every bed in a hospital trying to provide basic care? Sounds bonkers.
    In the private hospitals all the rooms are private with a bed for one relative. Actually works quite well in my experience and of course saves a lot of money and a fair bit of anxiety. The state cannot do it all.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,741

    felix said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    Sounds rather nice.
    It's idyllic - after 10 years I love it more than ever.

    You are a very, very lucky man. Sigh.

    I'd recommend it to anyone - but it's a choice more than luck - there are downsides and I sacrificed a lot for many years to ensure my financial security. Lots of things you take for granted in the UK are different - just 2 examples: no house insurance and you get a bill from the fire brigade if they are needed. Go into hospital and relatives are expected to provide basic care [ even in the private hospitals. There are others but for me well compensated by all the pluses - food /climate/scenery/people...

    You are way down south, aren't you? If I was ever going to move back, it would be to somewhere further north - Leon, Soria or Huesca. I love the harsh emptiness of those places, the huge skies, the mountains, the rough wine and the heavy food. Andalucia has never really done it for me. The Spanish is indecipherable for starters! But my plan is much more likely to involve moving to the English coast. I really would miss our weather. Not a lot of people say that!

    In a sheltered spot the English coast is lovely, Parts of the Isle of Wight are glorious, even when it is raining on the mainland. Really dodgy health services though!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    If we ever get to the situation where we've left I actually don't care which wing if the party the next leader comes from as long as it isn't Grieve, JRM or Boris. I can live with the rest and anyone else would be better than May.

    The Grieve wing of the Conservative party no longer exists outside of Parliament. The only way to become Tory leader from now on will be to pander to the Fuck Business English nationalist right. It won't be a big issue for the Tories as long as the far left controls the Labour party, but it will leave a huge vacuum in British politics that will eventually be filled.

    Don't be ridiculous, that's like saying the only way to become Labour leader once Jez leaves is to be a terrorist sympathising anti-Semite. It's a fun caricutre of the party but obviously not true.

    It's not at all obvious. I thought Danny Finkelstein was pretty much on the button in the Times last week.

    The trouble is that the policy of small-state deregulators, and the logic of Brexit, isn’t particularly attractive to voters in these new seats. There is a gap between a free-market policy of cutting corporate taxes and appealing to a more working-class demographic.
    Trump Republicans have worked out how to bridge this gap: by more cultural provocation and making a racist appeal to older white male voters. Leaving aside the fact that many Tory Brexiteers would find this tactic profoundly unattractive, it is, at best, a short-term strategy as younger, more liberal voters turn against it.
    And even in the short term there is a contradiction. Many Brexit leaders want control of immigration but also want generous quotas. They may find their potential new voters don’t agree. And how else to attract them if not that?
    In other words, there are abstract benefits to leaving the EU but many of the concrete advantages are ones that Brexit voters don’t really want. Which leaves the Conservative Party facing two directions at once.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-are-in-even-bigger-mess-than-they-think-blwsd63h6

    The terrorist sympathy and anti-Semitism is optional when it comes to the next Labour leader, but the party has undoubtedly tacked well to the left. It seems pretty clear that the Tories have likewise tacked well to the right. You have to see the positions all those who want to succeed May are adopting to understand that.



  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455
    kinabalu said:

    So it is looking quite good now for the Absolute Girl getting the Withdrawal Agreement passed. A close defeat at MV3 then a win at MV4 is one way, but there must be a risk that Bercow would not allow a 4. Therefore perhaps she would be better pulling next week's vote, going to the Summit, then coming back and presenting one final choice of Brexit via the WA or swallow a long extension. Defer MV3 to the very last gasp, in other words, and thus maximize her chances of winning it.

    Though if you get too close the ERG will fancy their chances of forcing a no-deal by disrupting proceedings to orevent "We leave on 29th March" from being repealed. Ironically they'd have Gina Miller to thank.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kinabalu said:

    So it is looking quite good now for the Absolute Girl getting the Withdrawal Agreement passed. A close defeat at MV3 then a win at MV4 is one way, but there must be a risk that Bercow would not allow a 4. Therefore perhaps she would be better pulling next week's vote, going to the Summit, then coming back and presenting one final choice of Brexit via the WA or swallow a long extension. Defer MV3 to the very last gasp, in other words, and thus maximize her chances of winning it.

    Doesn't work. The extension (including length) needs to be agreed at the Summit. Unless you can get the EU27 to sign of on an open-ended extension, with a short one if the Deal gets agreed and a long one if it doesn't, which seems like the sort of thing they might not want.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253

    May's gender has nothing to do with it.

    I suspect that her gender has, if anything, played in her favour. She is perceived by the public as a 'plucky gal', in reference to her resilience in adversity. Would a male politician, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, David Gauke, whoever, be described in similar circumstances as a plucky gal? I doubt it.
  • OT...
    ....I went to my very first Ice Hockey Match last night. Nottingham Panthers vs Manchester Storm.......absolutely bloody brilliant. Fast, fun, exciting, great atmosphere, full house, beer, hotdogs and a full on, gloves off fight! I'm hooked.
    As a Leicester lad, it did feel traitorous cheering on a Notts team, but as it was against Manchester...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,008
    edited March 2019
    I can't remember where we are with Islamophobia, is it it's not really a thing, it's justifiable or it's just a few weirdos on the outer limits?

    https://twitter.com/D__T_____/status/1106690698244317184
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,253
    Endillion said:

    Doesn't work. The extension (including length) needs to be agreed at the Summit. Unless you can get the EU27 to sign of on an open-ended extension, with a short one if the Deal gets agreed and a long one if it doesn't, which seems like the sort of thing they might not want.

    So the EU green lights a long extension (to X) plus a statement that if the WA plus current PD is ratified by 29 Mar the end date of the extension changes from X to 24 May.

    Too fancy? Possibly, but I can envisage something like that.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,500

    felix said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    felix said:

    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    trawl said:

    On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

    Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

    Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

    and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...
    That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?
    Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire
    In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. :) Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees. :)
    Sounds rather nice.
    It's idyllic - after 10 years I love it more than ever.

    You are a very, very lucky man. Sigh.

    I'd recommend it to anyone - but it's a choice more than luck - there are downsides and I sacrificed a lot for many years to ensure my financial security. Lots of things you take for granted in the UK are different - just 2 examples: no house insurance and you get a bill from the fire brigade if they are needed. Go into hospital and relatives are expected to provide basic care [ even in the private hospitals. There are others but for me well compensated by all the pluses - food /climate/scenery/people...
    How on earth do the cope with a load of relatives hanging around every bed in a hospital trying to provide basic care? Sounds bonkers.
    Nowadays children wards, and especially where babies are involved, there are parents about. When I was involved with these things they just didn't get in the way.
    Very different to when our eldest son was tiny; we were allowed to see him twice a week.
This discussion has been closed.