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Fenman

The problem to me is that so many of the constituencies you identify don't like Corbyn Central. Taking our glorious hosts position that the leaders position is primordial I'm not very optimistic. Suspect a swing to Labour where it doesn't matter and none where it does.

MarqueeMark

With Scotland still being such a horror show for Labour, it basically means that for Corbyn to gain power, he has to be grabbing a swathe of English seats from the Tories last taken by Blair. Blair could win those seats by building a coalition of voters that included large numbers of former Tory voters (who by the very nature those Tory-held target seats are present in abundance) with an offering that did not scare their centre/centre-right horses.

Corbyn? Not so much.... Now, if he'd had a very firm remainer position on Brexit, some of those Remain Tories for whom Brexit is the over-riding factor might overcome their distaste for his other policies and reward him with their vote. But he's been a slippery old eel. His position has been nothing about the EU as such, but all about Westminster. I just don't see there being enough of these Remain Tories giving him their vote to take these sub-ruria and market town seats.

Foxy

That gold standard Survation poll puts Labour just over 300 seats according to Flavible Politics methodology:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1106826678091857922?s=19

Sandpit

Are Ferrari about to screw up the strategy and miss the extra Constructors’ point?

SquareRoot

Foxy said:

That gold standard Survation poll puts Labour just over 300 seats according to Flavible Politics methodology:

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1106826678091857922?s=19

Fish and chip paper. None of the polls are credible.

Sandpit

Sandpit said:

Are Ferrari about to screw up the strategy and miss the extra Constructors’ point?

Oh yes!

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

My ancient tradition of either sleeping in for qualifying *or* the race continued. Caught the last 30 laps or so. Quite good, I thought.

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

My ancient tradition of either sleeping in for qualifying *or* the race continued. Caught the last 30 laps or so. Quite good, I thought.

Very good race, good advert for F1 to start the season.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, I look forward to watching the highlights and seeing if the first half was equally entertaining

Nice betting start to the year too.

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, I look forward to watching the highlights and seeing if the first half was equally entertaining

Nice betting start to the year too.

Well done. I didn’t bet on the race thanks to problems of timing, but followed you on the Q tip, so a green weekend.

trawl

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, thanks. Damned shame Bottas didn't get pole, but we can't have everything.

IanB2

The seats where there are potentially a lot of dissatisfied Tory remainers are in a swathe around London, where a lot of people who work in the capital live. Most of these commuter belt seats are well beyond Labour's reach, however big the swing. A centre party should have better chance there, and if the centre ever gets its act together the Tories could look more vulnerable in the Home Counties than at any time since Feb 74, which for most of these seats remains the last centre party high water mark in terms of vote share, unsurpassed during all the Alliance and Clegg years.

asjohnstone

Scotland is important, I know a way would be found for the SNP to back Corbyn in some fashion but taking places like Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock from the Tories would be a big help.

Interestingly, the seat has gone from Labour to SNP to Tory in recent elections. It's a bit of a bellweather seat, I can't think of somewhere else that has returned 3 different parties at the last 3 elections

ydoethur

asjohnstone said:

Scotland is important, I know a way would be found for the SNP to back Corbyn in some fashion but taking places like Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock from the Tories would be a big help.

Interestingly, the seat has gone from Labour to SNP to Tory in recent elections. It's a bit of a bellweather seat, I can't think of somewhere else that has returned 3 different parties at the last 3 elections

Without even breaking a sweat, Gordon and East Renfrewshire both did.

SquareRoot

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

ydoethur

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

SquareRoot

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Sussex b Band G

Foxy

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

I know. I pay several thousand pounds of income tax per month and have never used Trident missiles once. It's outrageous.

NickPalmer

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 300, and I live in a one-bedroom flat, but it's based on valuation and as it's Surrey everywhere is overvalued.

Enjoyed Foxy's rejoinder though!

Roger

Anyone know how someone like this manages to become an MP?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfmHMb2vVNU

NickPalmer

On topic, thanks to Alastair for the detailed analysis.Without knowing much about Scottish politics, it seems likely that the unionist parties have difficulty setting the Scottish agenda in the way that the SNP can, both by their special focus and by being in government. A separate Scottish Labour Party might be a good idea - I know the Tories have flirted with it.

ydoethur

Foxy said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

I know. I pay several thousand pounds of income tax per month and have never used Trident missiles once. It's outrageous.

No need to blow up like that

ydoethur

NickPalmer said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 300, and I live in a one-bedroom flat, but it's based on valuation and as it's Surrey everywhere is overvalued.

Enjoyed Foxy's rejoinder though!

The Liberal Democrats in 2005 had the right idea on getting rid of council tax, I think. It's just not a good way of raising money precisely because of that unfairness. The big snag is that nobody's come up with a workable replacement yet (community charge, anyone)?

Gallowgate

Our council tax is circa £250 per month. Band C Newcastle upon Tyne.

My salary has certainly not been keeping up with its increase.

Foxy

ydoethur said:

NickPalmer said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 300, and I live in a one-bedroom flat, but it's based on valuation and as it's Surrey everywhere is overvalued.

Enjoyed Foxy's rejoinder though!

The Liberal Democrats in 2005 had the right idea on getting rid of council tax, I think. It's just not a good way of raising money precisely because of that unfairness. The big snag is that nobody's come up with a workable replacement yet (community charge, anyone)?

There are two forms of wealth, capital and income. We already tax income quite heavily, and I think it quite reasonable to tax capital assets such as housing.

How much is a Band G property in Sussex? and how does that value compare with a decade ago?

ydoethur

Gallowgate said:

Our council tax is circa £250 per month. Band C Newcastle upon Tyne.

My salary has certainly not been keeping up with its increase.

Band B in Cannock Chase is around a third of that (sorry if I am rubbing this in). The inconsistency is one of the reasons council tax continues to be unpopular.

Gallowgate

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

NickPalmer said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 300, and I live in a one-bedroom flat, but it's based on valuation and as it's Surrey everywhere is overvalued.

Enjoyed Foxy's rejoinder though!

The Liberal Democrats in 2005 had the right idea on getting rid of council tax, I think. It's just not a good way of raising money precisely because of that unfairness. The big snag is that nobody's come up with a workable replacement yet (community charge, anyone)?

There are two forms of wealth, capital and income. We already tax income quite heavily, and I think it quite reasonable to tax capital assets such as housing.

How much is a Band G property in Sussex? and how does that value compare with a decade ago?

But you pay council tax even if you rent...

OldKingCole

Gallowgate said:

Our council tax is circa £250 per month. Band C Newcastle upon Tyne.

My salary has certainly not been keeping up with its increase.

Semi-rural N Essex. 4.9% up but Police element up 14.2%. Maybe we'll see some polite people around later in 2019. Works out to £161 per month, Band C.

eek

https://twitter.com/JohnWoolmore/status/1106943080492662785

Gallowgate

ydoethur said:

Gallowgate said:

Our council tax is circa £250 per month. Band C Newcastle upon Tyne.

My salary has certainly not been keeping up with its increase.

Band B in Cannock Chase is around a third of that (sorry if I am rubbing this in). The inconsistency is one of the reasons council tax continues to be unpopular.

I think I’ve rounded it up a bit (may be £230 or something now; don’t have the letter to hand) but the inconsistancy is troubling.

The worst thing is that because I live on a new build estate, I also have to pay a service charge to a private company to look after the ‘green areas’!

ydoethur

Gallowgate said:

ydoethur said:

Gallowgate said:

Our council tax is circa £250 per month. Band C Newcastle upon Tyne.

My salary has certainly not been keeping up with its increase.

Band B in Cannock Chase is around a third of that (sorry if I am rubbing this in). The inconsistency is one of the reasons council tax continues to be unpopular.

I think I’ve rounded it up a bit (may be £230 or something now; don’t have the letter to hand) but the inconsistancy is troubling.

The worst thing is that because I live on a new build estate, I also have to pay a service charge to a private company to look after the ‘green areas’!

For me, it is £102 a month in ten monthly payments. The full fat (bearing in mind as a single occupier I get discount) would be £1365.48 a year next year. As in other areas, PCC is the steepest rise at 12% (last year it was 18%, but if you will remember they fiddled the figures on the orders of the Treasury to make it look a lot less).

And I don't have any service charges, although I do have a helluva lot of potholes outside my front door.

OldKingCole

eek said:

https://twitter.com/JohnWoolmore/status/1106943080492662785

Frightening article. But her time as Home Secretary included some unnecessarily cruel actions.

SquareRoot

Foxy said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

I know. I pay several thousand pounds of income tax per month and have never used Trident missiles once. It's outrageous.

This is local taxation we are talking about not national Govt./ If you are paying that amount of tax you can damn well pay for Trident. I am a pensioner who HAS to work.

SquareRoot

NickPalmer said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 300, and I live in a one-bedroom flat, but it's based on valuation and as it's Surrey everywhere is overvalued.

Enjoyed Foxy's rejoinder though!

Well you would wouldn't you. Its not relevanty to a discussion about local taxation, notwithstanding the fact that the Govt has been reducing support to local councils. .. mainly as a result of Brown's lunacy and the appalling deficit bequeathed.

ydoethur

SquareRoot said:

NickPalmer said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 300, and I live in a one-bedroom flat, but it's based on valuation and as it's Surrey everywhere is overvalued.

Enjoyed Foxy's rejoinder though!

Well you would wouldn't you. Its not relevanty to a discussion about local taxation, notwithstanding the fact that the Govt has been reducing support to local councils. .. mainly as a result of Brown's lunacy and the appalling deficit bequeathed.

If you think it's bad now, wait until the humongous rise in employer contributions for Teacher Pensions kicks in from September 2020.

This may be cold comfort, of course.

SouthamObserver

It is a truth universally unacknowledged that in most Leave seats most Remain voters were Labour voters and most Leave voters weren’t.

Labour’s Brexit position is designed solely to accommodate the pro-Leave leadership team. And everyone knows this.

DougSeal

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

They don’t have street lighting, a fire brigade, environmental health, trading standards and planning controls where you live? I’m pretty sure you’re indirectly using all of those e.g try insuring a house in an area without a fire brigade.

rkrkrk

SquareRoot said:

Foxy said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

I know. I pay several thousand pounds of income tax per month and have never used Trident missiles once. It's outrageous.

This is local taxation we are talking about not national Govt./ If you are paying that amount of tax you can damn well pay for Trident. I am a pensioner who HAS to work.

Most police funding is from national government.

ydoethur

DougSeal said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

They don’t have street lighting, a fire brigade, environmental health, trading standards and planning controls where you live? I’m pretty sure you’re indirectly using all of those e.g try insuring a house in an area without a fire brigade.

We have planning controls still? Given the crazy nature of most building round here I thought they'd been abolished.

eek

SouthamObserver said:

It is a truth universally unacknowledged that in most Leave seats most Remain voters were Labour voters and most Leave voters weren’t.

Labour’s Brexit position is designed solely to accommodate the pro-Leave leadership team. And everyone knows this.

Really? Are you sure that's true up north?

SquareRoot

DougSeal said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

They don’t have street lighting, a fire brigade, environmental health, trading standards and planning controls where you live? I’m pretty sure you’re indirectly using all of those e.g try insuring a house in an area without a fire brigade.

Planning has to be paid for ,... its not a free service.. Isnt the Fire brigade nationalyl financed>?

ydoethur

rkrkrk said:

SquareRoot said:

Foxy said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

I know. I pay several thousand pounds of income tax per month and have never used Trident missiles once. It's outrageous.

This is local taxation we are talking about not national Govt./ If you are paying that amount of tax you can damn well pay for Trident. I am a pensioner who HAS to work.

Most police funding is from national government.

So is most local government funding. The problem is Labour made huge spending commitments without then increasing the grant, and the Tories have now cut the grants without reducing the commitments. Northamptonshire shows where that ends.

nico67

The DUPs latest demands effectively mean the UK will be closely aligned to the EU and it will be very difficult to Leave the UK wide backstop . Which is quite funny because if May accepts this then it could cause problems with the capitalism on steroids bunch .

NickPalmer

OldKingCole said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/JohnWoolmore/status/1106943080492662785

Frightening article. But her time as Home Secretary included some unnecessarily cruel actions.

Remarkable - Parris's comments are startling from a Tory loyalist on the record, but in a way the Danish PM's are more striking, as he's a serving centre-right leader of a strongly pro-British country.

I think May is quite widely respected by the wider public - they don't feel she's quite up to the task, but they recognise that the task is difficult, and they prefer her to her rivals. But it does seem that she barely has an inner circle at all.

Morris_Dancer

F1: meant to mention this before, but the post-race ramble will be up later than anticipated as I want to watch the highlights (half, at least...) before finishing writing it.

NickPalmer

SquareRoot said:

Well you would wouldn't you. Its not relevanty to a discussion about local taxation, notwithstanding the fact that the Govt has been reducing support to local councils. .. mainly as a result of Brown's lunacy and the appalling deficit bequeathed.

:Like you I'm a pensioner who needs to work, but I do think the central government cuts are to blame for soaring council tax (who is responsible for those is a separate argument).

DougSeal

SquareRoot said:

DougSeal said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

They don’t have street lighting, a fire brigade, environmental health, trading standards and planning controls where you live? I’m pretty sure you’re indirectly using all of those e.g try insuring a house in an area without a fire brigade.

Planning has to be paid for ,... its not a free service.. Isnt the Fire brigade nationalyl financed>?

Local fire authorities get both a central government grant and a levy on the local council tax.

SouthamObserver

Gallowgate said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

NickPalmer said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 300, and I live in a one-bedroom flat, but it's based on valuation and as it's Surrey everywhere is overvalued.

Enjoyed Foxy's rejoinder though!

The Liberal Democrats in 2005 had the right idea on getting rid of council tax, I think. It's just not a good way of raising money precisely because of that unfairness. The big snag is that nobody's come up with a workable replacement yet (community charge, anyone)?

There are two forms of wealth, capital and income. We already tax income quite heavily, and I think it quite reasonable to tax capital assets such as housing.

How much is a Band G property in Sussex? and how does that value compare with a decade ago?

But you pay council tax even if you rent...

Or, if you are lucky, Dad pays it. You’re welcome, kids!

malcolmg

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire

AndyJS

Most people want cheaper houses but they don't want large-scale house building, (and they mostly don't want to live in high rise flats). The only way to square that circle would be to reduce the population, which would damage the economy.

NickPalmer

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

There are two forms of wealth, capital and income. We already tax income quite heavily, and I think it quite reasonable to tax capital assets such as housing.

How much is a Band G property in Sussex? and how does that value compare with a decade ago?

Lots more, I'm sure. Apart from the need to raise revenue, if the effect was to nudge people into downsizing when they didn't need as much space, it'd help the housing situation too. A lot of people stay on in homes that are much larger than they need after kids have left, as they have pleasant associations and moving is a faff. I'm in their camp - I hate moving. But as a matter of national policy, it would be good to encourage a bit of mobility.

MarqueeMark

NickPalmer said:

OldKingCole said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/JohnWoolmore/status/1106943080492662785

Frightening article. But her time as Home Secretary included some unnecessarily cruel actions.

Remarkable - Parris's comments are startling from a Tory loyalist on the record, but in a way the Danish PM's are more striking, as he's a serving centre-right leader of a strongly pro-British country.

I think May is quite widely respected by the wider public - they don't feel she's quite up to the task, but they recognise that the task is difficult, and they prefer her to her rivals. But it does seem that she barely has an inner circle at all.

May has never had a natural constituency of support. She obtained power and held on to power because of who she wasn't - Leadsom and Boris respectively. Nobody really wanted her there - they just wanted others less. It's no real surprise how she has turned out.

I strongly suspect that the next PM and leader will be chosen on the same basis. Probably with similar woeful results....

ydoethur

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire

OK.

So I have to be very careful what I say about council tax, as it seems I am getting off very lightly at this moment.

kfowkes

To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.

Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.

The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc

Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.

This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.

ydoethur

AndyJS said:

Most people want cheaper houses but they don't want large-scale house building, (and they mostly don't want to live in high rise flats). The only way to square that circle would be to reduce the population, which would damage the economy.

Out of curiosity - and in the full realisation I may regret asking - how were you planning to reduce the population?

SouthamObserver

NickPalmer said:

On topic, thanks to Alastair for the detailed analysis.Without knowing much about Scottish politics, it seems likely that the unionist parties have difficulty setting the Scottish agenda in the way that the SNP can, both by their special focus and by being in government. A separate Scottish Labour Party might be a good idea - I know the Tories have flirted with it.

There are 18 Scottish seats in Labour’s top 65 target list. Right now, the polling indicates that Labour is on course to lose at least six of the seven seats it currently holds. There are many reasons why Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election. Scotland is certainly one of them.

My understanding is that Scottish Labour was in the process of developing a separate identity, but that since the election of Richard Leonard as leader it has reverted to branch office status. Perhaps one of our Scottish-based contributors can provide more info.

malcolmg

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire

OK.

So I have to be very careful what I say about council tax, as it seems I am getting off very lightly at this moment.

Seems so. It really is a form of robbery though.

malcolmg

kfowkes said:

To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.

Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.

The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc

Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.

This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.

There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.

Barnesian

NickPalmer said:

OldKingCole said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/JohnWoolmore/status/1106943080492662785

Frightening article. But her time as Home Secretary included some unnecessarily cruel actions.

Remarkable - Parris's comments are startling from a Tory loyalist on the record, but in a way the Danish PM's are more striking, as he's a serving centre-right leader of a strongly pro-British country.

I think May is quite widely respected by the wider public - they don't feel she's quite up to the task, but they recognise that the task is difficult, and they prefer her to her rivals. But it does seem that she barely has an inner circle at all.

She must have an enormous inner strength to keep on going. But as she is not flexible, she may well suddenly crack.

I don't admire or respect her. I still feel sorry for her as I do for anyone who is suffering.

SouthamObserver

NickPalmer said:

OldKingCole said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/JohnWoolmore/status/1106943080492662785

Frightening article. But her time as Home Secretary included some unnecessarily cruel actions.

Remarkable - Parris's comments are startling from a Tory loyalist on the record, but in a way the Danish PM's are more striking, as he's a serving centre-right leader of a strongly pro-British country.

I think May is quite widely respected by the wider public - they don't feel she's quite up to the task, but they recognise that the task is difficult, and they prefer her to her rivals. But it does seem that she barely has an inner circle at all.

The Dutch PM has said something very similar. Over the last two and a half years May has managed to completely alienate our strongest European allies and friends - the Irish, the Dutch and the Danish - all of which have centre-right, pro-business governments. It’s one hell of an achievement. And given who the Tories are likely to dump on us next, it’s unlikely bridges will be repaired any time soon.

kfowkes

malcolmg said:

kfowkes said:

To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.

Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.

The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc

Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.

This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.

There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.

I'm not saying that will happen I think 4 losses to the SNP is more/most likely (am only confident of Labour holding Edinburgh S, East Lothian and possibly Coatbridge) depends on many factors like turnout etc.

I think the result in Scotland will be somewhere between SNP 40% Con 27% Lab 23% and SNP 34% Lab 30% and Con 29% with the former scenario more likely but the latter not being able to be completely ruled out

OldKingCole

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire

OK.

So I have to be very careful what I say about council tax, as it seems I am getting off very lightly at this moment.

Seems so. It really is a form of robbery though.

Well, we need some sort of financing method for Local Government. I cannot imagine a system where, in a country the size of England, or even N. Ireland, there's just one level of Government.

NB; just been announced on Broadcasting House that Esther McVey's considering standing for Tory Leader.

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

NB; just been announced on Broadcasting House that Esther McVey's considering standing for Tory Leader.

She would be George Wither to May's John Denham. If she were Prime Minister even for five minutes, May could never be accounted the worst PM of the 21st Century.

Although that could also be said of Corbyn.

malcolmg

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, thanks to Alastair for the detailed analysis.Without knowing much about Scottish politics, it seems likely that the unionist parties have difficulty setting the Scottish agenda in the way that the SNP can, both by their special focus and by being in government. A separate Scottish Labour Party might be a good idea - I know the Tories have flirted with it.

There are 18 Scottish seats in Labour’s top 65 target list. Right now, the polling indicates that Labour is on course to lose at least six of the seven seats it currently holds. There are many reasons why Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election. Scotland is certainly one of them.

My understanding is that Scottish Labour was in the process of developing a separate identity, but that since the election of Richard Leonard as leader it has reverted to branch office status. Perhaps one of our Scottish-based contributors can provide more info.

SO , they are really just a sub regional office and whilst on a few odd occasions they have talked about a separate identity it has always been squashed by London. They have no money and would not survive on their own. In the last year they lost 20% of members and spent over £5K to raise funds of less than £5K. They elect London puppets as leader , current one is absolutely useless, only 40% of Labour supporters recognised his name. They are in a death spiral and have no policies, only vote against SNP. They often vote against or abstain on their own motions they are so bad. Yet they still believe they should rule Scotland , it beggars belief.

ydoethur

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, thanks to Alastair for the detailed analysis.Without knowing much about Scottish politics, it seems likely that the unionist parties have difficulty setting the Scottish agenda in the way that the SNP can, both by their special focus and by being in government. A separate Scottish Labour Party might be a good idea - I know the Tories have flirted with it.

There are 18 Scottish seats in Labour’s top 65 target list. Right now, the polling indicates that Labour is on course to lose at least six of the seven seats it currently holds. There are many reasons why Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election. Scotland is certainly one of them.

My understanding is that Scottish Labour was in the process of developing a separate identity, but that since the election of Richard Leonard as leader it has reverted to branch office status. Perhaps one of our Scottish-based contributors can provide more info.

SO , they are really just a sub regional office and whilst on a few odd occasions they have talked about a separate identity it has always been squashed by London. They have no money and would not survive on their own. In the last year they lost 20% of members and spent over £5K to raise funds of less than £5K. They elect London puppets as leader , current one is absolutely useless, only 40% of Labour supporters recognised his name. They are in a death spiral and have no policies, only vote against SNP. They often vote against or abstain on their own motions they are so bad. Yet they still believe they should rule Scotland , it beggars belief.

Who is the current puppet, er, leader? Is it still Richard Leonard?

malcolmg

Barnesian said:

NickPalmer said:

OldKingCole said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/JohnWoolmore/status/1106943080492662785

Frightening article. But her time as Home Secretary included some unnecessarily cruel actions.

Remarkable - Parris's comments are startling from a Tory loyalist on the record, but in a way the Danish PM's are more striking, as he's a serving centre-right leader of a strongly pro-British country.

I think May is quite widely respected by the wider public - they don't feel she's quite up to the task, but they recognise that the task is difficult, and they prefer her to her rivals. But it does seem that she barely has an inner circle at all.

She must have an enormous inner strength to keep on going. But as she is not flexible, she may well suddenly crack.

I don't admire or respect her. I still feel sorry for her as I do for anyone who is suffering.

No sympathy here, keep that for the victims of the Tory policies. She can retire a multi-millionaire any day she wishes and not have a care in the world. She has a cushy number for sure, only lacking a backbone and some principles.

malcolmg

OldKingCole said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire

OK.

So I have to be very careful what I say about council tax, as it seems I am getting off very lightly at this moment.

Seems so. It really is a form of robbery though.

Well, we need some sort of financing method for Local Government. I cannot imagine a system where, in a country the size of England, or even N. Ireland, there's just one level of Government.

NB; just been announced on Broadcasting House that Esther McVey's considering standing for Tory Leader.

OKC, totally agree but the current system is less than fair and councils are far from efficient.

malcolmg

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, thanks to Alastair for the detailed analysis.Without knowing much about Scottish politics, it seems likely that the unionist parties have difficulty setting the Scottish agenda in the way that the SNP can, both by their special focus and by being in government. A separate Scottish Labour Party might be a good idea - I know the Tories have flirted with it.

There are 18 Scottish seats in Labour’s top 65 target list. Right now, the polling indicates that Labour is on course to lose at least six of the seven seats it currently holds. There are many reasons why Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election. Scotland is certainly one of them.

My understanding is that Scottish Labour was in the process of developing a separate identity, but that since the election of Richard Leonard as leader it has reverted to branch office status. Perhaps one of our Scottish-based contributors can provide more info.

SO , they are really just a sub regional office and whilst on a few odd occasions they have talked about a separate identity it has always been squashed by London. They have no money and would not survive on their own. In the last year they lost 20% of members and spent over £5K to raise funds of less than £5K. They elect London puppets as leader , current one is absolutely useless, only 40% of Labour supporters recognised his name. They are in a death spiral and have no policies, only vote against SNP. They often vote against or abstain on their own motions they are so bad. Yet they still believe they should rule Scotland , it beggars belief.

Who is the current puppet, er, leader? Is it still Richard Leonard?

LOL, yes and he is a whopper, you keep thinking they cannot find anyone worse than the last donkey and yet they surprise you.

ydoethur

Anyway, time for me to pull out my eight foot horn. I was thinking of experimenting with a slow swell leading to full climax this morning. But much depends on whether the oboe is still in tune after the weather last night. If it isn't, I'll just have to keep pulling knobs until I find the right combination for a big climax.

Have a good morning.

CarlottaVance

Paul Goodman reckons any offers by May to resign very much caveat emptor:

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/03/would-may-agree-to-go-quickly-to-get-her-deal-through-she-may-yet-hint-at-it-but-watch-the-small-print.html

malcolmg

kfowkes said:

malcolmg said:

kfowkes said:

To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.

Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.

The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc

Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.

This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.

There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.

I'm not saying that will happen I think 4 losses to the SNP is more/most likely (am only confident of Labour holding Edinburgh S, East Lothian and possibly Coatbridge) depends on many factors like turnout etc.

I think the result in Scotland will be somewhere between SNP 40% Con 27% Lab 23% and SNP 34% Lab 30% and Con 29% with the former scenario more likely but the latter not being able to be completely ruled out

It is hard to see Tories taking seats from SNP and impossible to imagine labour holding what they have never mind gaining. Would be shocking if SNP did not gain seats in my opinion given they are head and shoulders above both and the best of a very poor lot. However as we have seen in the past there are many thick sheeple in Scotland.

kfowkes

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, thanks to Alastair for the detailed analysis.Without knowing much about Scottish politics, it seems likely that the unionist parties have difficulty setting the Scottish agenda in the way that the SNP can, both by their special focus and by being in government. A separate Scottish Labour Party might be a good idea - I know the Tories have flirted with it.

There are 18 Scottish seats in Labour’s top 65 target list. Right now, the polling indicates that Labour is on course to lose at least six of the seven seats it currently holds. There are many reasons why Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election. Scotland is certainly one of them.

My understanding is that Scottish Labour was in the process of developing a separate identity, but that since the election of Richard Leonard as leader it has reverted to branch office status. Perhaps one of our Scottish-based contributors can provide more info.

SO , they are really just a sub regional office and whilst on a few odd occasions they have talked about a separate identity it has always been squashed by London. They have no money and would not survive on their own. In the last year they lost 20% of members and spent over £5K to raise funds of less than £5K. They elect London puppets as leader , current one is absolutely useless, only 40% of Labour supporters recognised his name. They are in a death spiral and have no policies, only vote against SNP. They often vote against or abstain on their own motions they are so bad. Yet they still believe they should rule Scotland , it beggars belief.

Labour is in a bad way at Holyrood (although not in a worse mess than any of the previous leaders). The SNP is in a strong position with younger voters still but has still shed a lot of older working class voters and alienated middle Scotland etc. And independence looks dead for the 20 years despite everything that's going on.

I expect the SNP to lose ground at Holyrood but retain 33% of the list vote over a fragmented opposition and remain in power there for a while still til at least the 2030s.

Westminster is still a different matter.

CarlottaVance

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, thanks to Alastair for the detailed analysis.Without knowing much about Scottish politics, it seems likely that the unionist parties have difficulty setting the Scottish agenda in the way that the SNP can, both by their special focus and by being in government. A separate Scottish Labour Party might be a good idea - I know the Tories have flirted with it.

There are 18 Scottish seats in Labour’s top 65 target list. Right now, the polling indicates that Labour is on course to lose at least six of the seven seats it currently holds. There are many reasons why Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election. Scotland is certainly one of them.

My understanding is that Scottish Labour was in the process of developing a separate identity, but that since the election of Richard Leonard as leader it has reverted to branch office status. Perhaps one of our Scottish-based contributors can provide more info.

SO , they are really just a sub regional office and whilst on a few odd occasions they have talked about a separate identity it has always been squashed by London. They have no money and would not survive on their own. In the last year they lost 20% of members and spent over £5K to raise funds of less than £5K. They elect London puppets as leader , current one is absolutely useless, only 40% of Labour supporters recognised his name. They are in a death spiral and have no policies, only vote against SNP. They often vote against or abstain on their own motions they are so bad. Yet they still believe they should rule Scotland , it beggars belief.

They are certainly a very good reminder that “nothing lasts forever”.

Foxy

Gallowgate said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

NickPalmer said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 300, and I live in a one-bedroom flat, but it's based on valuation and as it's Surrey everywhere is overvalued.

Enjoyed Foxy's rejoinder though!

The Liberal Democrats in 2005 had the right idea on getting rid of council tax, I think. It's just not a good way of raising money precisely because of that unfairness. The big snag is that nobody's come up with a workable replacement yet (community charge, anyone)?

There are two forms of wealth, capital and income. We already tax income quite heavily, and I think it quite reasonable to tax capital assets such as housing.

How much is a Band G property in Sussex? and how does that value compare with a decade ago?

But you pay council tax even if you rent...

Sure, but do you not agree that property taxation is as reasonable as income taxation or consumption taxes?

malcolmg

ydoethur said:

Anyway, time for me to pull out my eight foot horn. I was thinking of experimenting with a slow swell leading to full climax this morning. But much depends on whether the oboe is still in tune after the weather last night. If it isn't, I'll just have to keep pulling knobs until I find the right combination for a big climax.

Have a good morning.

Happy pulling Ydoethur.

Norm

There seems to be some pushback by the irreconciliables and their media supporters this morning against TM and the notion the tide is turning on her deal.

At this stage the Brexiteer split is as much about tactics as anything - to what extent does the full Brexit risk no Brexit at all or an even softer Norway+ version.

malcolmg

kfowkes said:

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, thanks to Alastair for the detailed analysis.Without knowing much about Scottish politics, it seems likely that the unionist parties have difficulty setting the Scottish agenda in the way that the SNP can, both by their special focus and by being in government. A separate Scottish Labour Party might be a good idea - I know the Tories have flirted with it.

There are 18 Scottish seats in Labour’s top 65 target list. Right now, the polling indicates that Labour is on course to lose at least six of the seven seats it currently holds. There are many reasons why Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election. Scotland is certainly one of them.

My understanding is that Scottish Labour was in the process of developing a separate identity, but that since the election of Richard Leonard as leader it has reverted to branch office status. Perhaps one of our Scottish-based contributors can provide more info.

SO , they are really just a sub regional office and whilst on a few odd occasions they have talked about a separate identity it has always been squashed by London. They have no money and would not survive on their own. In the last year they lost 20% of members and spent over £5K to raise funds of less than £5K. They elect London puppets as leader , current one is absolutely useless, only 40% of Labour supporters recognised his name. They are in a death spiral and have no policies, only vote against SNP. They often vote against or abstain on their own motions they are so bad. Yet they still believe they should rule Scotland , it beggars belief.

Labour is in a bad way at Holyrood (although not in a worse mess than any of the previous leaders). The SNP is in a strong position with younger voters still but has still shed a lot of older working class voters and alienated middle Scotland etc. And independence looks dead for the 20 years despite everything that's going on.

I expect the SNP to lose ground at Holyrood but retain 33% of the list vote over a fragmented opposition and remain in power there for a while still til at least the 2030s.

Westminster is still a different matter.

Holyrood is certainly tougher given the voting system. For sure it is hard to see them losing power in a long time given the lack of opposition. My amazement is that so many still vote for the Tories and Labour who both have no interest whatsoever in the interests of Scotland or its people.

CarlottaVance

An intellectual Titan strides among us....

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1107207674188435456?s=20

Roger

OldKingCole said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/JohnWoolmore/status/1106943080492662785

Frightening article. But her time as Home Secretary included some unnecessarily cruel actions.

It is a description of Iago written in the style of Matthew Parris who i suspect had more to do with the article than his credt suggests. The proof of it's veracity is her treatment of Osborne. It was vicious cruel and done with an ugly degree of pleasure.

geoffw

CarlottaVance said:

An intellectual Titan strides among us....

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1107207674188435456?s=20

I'd rather support the Truss.

MaxPB

Gallowgate said:

Our council tax is circa £250 per month. Band C Newcastle upon Tyne.

My salary has certainly not been keeping up with its increase.

That's bloody extortionate, I pay £125 per month in London for a band D.

CarlottaVance

Another “May’s deal or no Brexit” article:

https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1107212477463449600?s=20

felix

ydoethur said:

Gallowgate said:

ydoethur said:

Gallowgate said:

Our council tax is circa £250 per month. Band C Newcastle upon Tyne.

My salary has certainly not been keeping up with its increase.

Band B in Cannock Chase is around a third of that (sorry if I am rubbing this in). The inconsistency is one of the reasons council tax continues to be unpopular.

I think I’ve rounded it up a bit (may be £230 or something now; don’t have the letter to hand) but the inconsistancy is troubling.

The worst thing is that because I live on a new build estate, I also have to pay a service charge to a private company to look after the ‘green areas’!

For me, it is £102 a month in ten monthly payments. The full fat (bearing in mind as a single occupier I get discount) would be £1365.48 a year next year. As in other areas, PCC is the steepest rise at 12% (last year it was 18%, but if you will remember they fiddled the figures on the orders of the Treasury to make it look a lot less).

And I don't have any service charges, although I do have a helluva lot of potholes outside my front door.

Maybe you should keep your cannabis in the shed?

kle4

Foxy said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

I know. I pay several thousand pounds of income tax per month and have never used Trident missiles once. It's outrageous.

Lol.

Sean_F

Roger said:

OldKingCole said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/JohnWoolmore/status/1106943080492662785

Frightening article. But her time as Home Secretary included some unnecessarily cruel actions.

It is a description of Iago written in the style of Matthew Parris who i suspect had more to do with the article than his credt suggests. The proof of it's veracity is her treatment of Osborne. It was vicious cruel and done with an ugly degree of pleasure.

Osborne, though, is like Littlefinger.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1107213716964167680?s=20

SquareRoot

geoffw said:

CarlottaVance said:

An intellectual Titan strides among us....

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1107207674188435456?s=20

I'd rather support the Truss.

Wouldn't it be the other way round? the truss supporting you?

kle4

SquareRoot said:

NickPalmer said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 300, and I live in a one-bedroom flat, but it's based on valuation and as it's Surrey everywhere is overvalued.

Enjoyed Foxy's rejoinder though!

Well you would wouldn't you. Its not relevanty to a discussion about local taxation, notwithstanding the fact that the Govt has been reducing support to local councils. .. mainly as a result of Brown's lunacy and the appalling deficit bequeathed.

The point is the same for all things councils do you may not use, and getting uppity about the joke using a national not local taxation comparison doesn't render the point any less valid, not least because he made his point about the taxation being used for things we dont personally use, which applies nationally and locally. They do more than bins and potholes.

MaxPB

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1107213716964167680?s=20

That makes no sense, so if the labour amendment passes, they will still try and scupper the deal?! Wtf kind of strategy is that.

felix

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire

In SE Spain my 4 bed house costs around £200 per annum +£100 for rubbish collection. Our apartment near the beach costs about £250 + £100. Combined bills are about half what I used to pay in Lewisham nearly 10 years ago. Oh and we get 320 sunny days a year today not a cloud in the sky and a High of 25 degrees.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1107206376068124672

DecrepitJohnL

SquareRoot said:

NickPalmer said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 300, and I live in a one-bedroom flat, but it's based on valuation and as it's Surrey everywhere is overvalued.

Enjoyed Foxy's rejoinder though!

Well you would wouldn't you. Its not relevanty to a discussion about local taxation, notwithstanding the fact that the Govt has been reducing support to local councils. .. mainly as a result of Brown's lunacy and the appalling deficit bequeathed.

When you say Brown's lunacy, you are simply rewarming CCHQ's attack lines from 2010. That would be the global financial crisis which started in America, from which Brown led the recovery and bequeathed a recovering economy to the Tories, only for Osborne's Plan A to flatline it. Remember Ed Balls's hand gestures?

kle4

CarlottaVance said:

Another “May’s deal or no Brexit” article:

https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1107212477463449600?s=20

I'd love to play chess with these guys. I'm not a good player at all, but even I am able to think at least one move ahead, unlike them.

SouthamObserver

‪This week Ireland will secure victory over the DUP and the ERG, so demonstrating the power EU membership confers. Happy St Patrick’s Day!

felix

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

On topic, thanks to Alastair for the detailed analysis.Without knowing much about Scottish politics, it seems likely that the unionist parties have difficulty setting the Scottish agenda in the way that the SNP can, both by their special focus and by being in government. A separate Scottish Labour Party might be a good idea - I know the Tories have flirted with it.

There are 18 Scottish seats in Labour’s top 65 target list. Right now, the polling indicates that Labour is on course to lose at least six of the seven seats it currently holds. There are many reasons why Corbyn Labour will not win the next general election. Scotland is certainly one of them.

My understanding is that Scottish Labour was in the process of developing a separate identity, but that since the election of Richard Leonard as leader it has reverted to branch office status. Perhaps one of our Scottish-based contributors can provide more info.

Justin 124 will tell you that the Scottish polls can't be trusted and that Labour will gain all of those seats and more.

kle4

CarlottaVance said:

An intellectual Titan strides among us...

Is it me?

One can always hope.

MarqueeMark

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

OldKingCole said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/JohnWoolmore/status/1106943080492662785

Frightening article. But her time as Home Secretary included some unnecessarily cruel actions.

It is a description of Iago written in the style of Matthew Parris who i suspect had more to do with the article than his credt suggests. The proof of it's veracity is her treatment of Osborne. It was vicious cruel and done with an ugly degree of pleasure.

Osborne, though, is like Littlefinger.

I bet May now wishes she had a moonpool rather than a back door, from which to expel him from her sight...

felix

OldKingCole said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

SquareRoot said:

trawl said:

On the Brexity issue, surely depends where Brexit is, love or loathe if May’s deal were somehow through that would probably help Labour in the places highlighted with voters moving on from that to the usual bread and butter.

Still on topic, must confess, I’ve lost track of where things are with the boundary changes.

Totally off topic. Council tax bill arrived yesterday. Ouch, up over 6%, police precept up 18% alone having increased 10% last year.

and the Police still say they are short of large numbers. Its ludicrous. My council tax bill is 300 a month bar a few quid, Its outrageous and pretty much all I get out of it is my bins emptied and the road resurfaced every 25 yrs...

That's extortionate. Mine's under 100. Where do you actually live?

Mine is over 250 in Ayrshire

OK.

So I have to be very careful what I say about council tax, as it seems I am getting off very lightly at this moment.

Seems so. It really is a form of robbery though.

Well, we need some sort of financing method for Local Government. I cannot imagine a system where, in a country the size of England, or even N. Ireland, there's just one level of Government.

NB; just been announced on Broadcasting House that Esther McVey's considering standing for Tory Leader.

Good lord.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. JohnL, it's almost as if we had a recession coming anyway, and poor financial regulation (in a system invented by Brown) mishandling banks that were lending to people who had no business borrowing money.

And you neglect to mention/recall that Brown brought forward a shedload of spending to try and boost GDP figures ahead of the election, as well as bequeathing a deficit of around £200bn.

We're still paying interest on the debt, mostly accumulated by Brown's recession (the worst in British history) of around £50bn a year, almost the sum total of the Education and Defence budgets combined.