politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s path to victory. The seats that could put Labour in p
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I think "anally retentive" is what you are looking for.felix said:
Justin 124 is very consistent.Theuniondivvie said:
Absolutely, people just haven't paid sufficient attention to the 271 occasions you've made this point previously. A few dozen more times should do it.justin124 said:People also need to be aware that since 2015 polls have pretty consistently overestimated SNP support as reflected in actual results at Holyrood in 2016, Local Elections in May 2017 and Westminster in June 2017.
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Tough on anyone without a car.eek said:
It does mean that a lot of shops will have to move location to make sense, the pedestrian area of most towns isn't convenient for even a small shop..ydoethur said:This has been forecast by some on here - although it's not the ditching of clothing, the direction of travel is brutally obvious:
M&S plans big store shift towards weekly food shop
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-476025660 -
LOL, you halfwit , they were not catching the criminals, they were too busy chucking out people who were British Citizens whilst dog whistling with their vans.Endillion said:
A home secretary who wants to impose the rule of law and arrest criminals? Whatever next?Theuniondivvie said:
Also these, but I'm sure she was just being cruel to be kind.OldKingCole said:
She was responsible for the Windrush fiasco. And that was cruel.Endillion said:
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.Stereotomy said:
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?Endillion said:
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...rottenborough said:Wow. This in Spiegel on May:
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
"It was the longest 30 minutes of my life."
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/theresa-may-s-brexit-disaster-a-1258101.html
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
https://twitter.com/Sideshow_Matt/status/11057863831788748800 -
Well, yes. You wonder how quick bus routes will be to keep up.malcolmg said:
Tough on anyone without a car.eek said:
It does mean that a lot of shops will have to move location to make sense, the pedestrian area of most towns isn't convenient for even a small shop..ydoethur said:This has been forecast by some on here - although it's not the ditching of clothing, the direction of travel is brutally obvious:
M&S plans big store shift towards weekly food shop
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47602566
In Cannock, our new retail park is being built next to the station, but I can't shake the nagging feeling that's a happy accident (or unhappy for anyone who has to commute past the sodding roadworks.)0 -
But what if a march is Ther Will of Ther People?Recidivist said:
If you try to do something and it obviously isn't working that is the sensible thing to do.nico67 said:
Tragic and pathetic . Talk about a public relations own goal . They should just cancel it to save further humiliation.Theuniondivvie said:The White Walkers even more depleted today.
https://twitter.com/SirMustard/status/11072376898148638760 -
Guaranteed it was not you that is for sure. Weaselling out with "I do not bet" says it all. Full of wind and piss.justin124 said:
Who spouted the best quality rubbish on here in May/June 2017?malcolmg said:
why you spouting rubbish on a betting site thenjustin124 said:
I do not bet at all - but have read your repeated comments on here in May 2017. Doubtless your current predictions will prove just as accurate.malcolmg said:
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.justin124 said:
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.malcolmg said:
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.kfowkes said:To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.
The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc
Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.
This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.0 -
Sure, shall we take all our jobs and investments with us?HYUFD said:0 -
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Probably most people on here do not bet. That does not make it invalid to judge the forecasts made by particular contributors. The confidence of your May 2017 predictions rather stood out - as did those of quite a few others.malcolmg said:
Guaranteed it was not you that is for sure. Weaselling out with "I do not bet" says it all. Full of wind and piss.justin124 said:
Who spouted the best quality rubbish on here in May/June 2017?malcolmg said:
why you spouting rubbish on a betting site thenjustin124 said:
I do not bet at all - but have read your repeated comments on here in May 2017. Doubtless your current predictions will prove just as accurate.malcolmg said:
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.justin124 said:
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.malcolmg said:
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.kfowkes said:To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.
The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc
Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.
This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.0 -
"Halfwit" from you feels almost like a complimentmalcolmg said:
LOL, you halfwit , they were not catching the criminals, they were too busy chucking out people who were British Citizens whilst dog whistling with their vans.Endillion said:
A home secretary who wants to impose the rule of law and arrest criminals? Whatever next?Theuniondivvie said:
Also these, but I'm sure she was just being cruel to be kind.OldKingCole said:
She was responsible for the Windrush fiasco. And that was cruel.Endillion said:
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.Stereotomy said:
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?Endillion said:
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...rottenborough said:Wow. This in Spiegel on May:
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
"It was the longest 30 minutes of my life."
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/theresa-may-s-brexit-disaster-a-1258101.html
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
https://twitter.com/Sideshow_Matt/status/1105786383178874880
I can only say that I wish May was showing half the cunning you seem to ascribe to her on immigration, in getting Brexit over the line. I don't think she's either cruel or stupid, but I think the evidence suggests she's unlikely to be both.0 -
Nobody wants to accept the blame for No Deal.Stark_Dawning said:
It's a astonishing how quickly they're crumbling. Presumably it was just posturing but then they finally realized these things would have catastrophic consequences and panic set in. There can be no other explanation.HYUFD said:
Nobody wants to accept the blame for not implementing the Referendum. Labour especially don't want to be painted as the reason for it when Tory MPs fall into line.
Nobody can negotiate with the EU by March 29th - and no indication they could if given years and years extension.
Nobody wants to accept the blame for lost jobs due to an extension of many many months/years.
Plus, we have a Parliament of Fuckwits and Spineless Gimps with the imagination of a caravan site. Really, what do you expect?
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I'm pretty sure Brexit was not the reason for that (thinks for a minute) large-sheet-with-slogan-on- it (godsdammit, what is the word for that?)malcolmg said:0 -
Endillion said:
"Halfwit" from you feels almost like a complimentmalcolmg said:
LOL, you halfwit , they were not catching the criminals, they were too busy chucking out people who were British Citizens whilst dog whistling with their vans.Endillion said:
A home secretary who wants to impose the rule of law and arrest criminals? Whatever next?Theuniondivvie said:
Also these, but I'm sure she was just being cruel to be kind.OldKingCole said:
She was responsible for the Windrush fiasco. And that was cruel.Endillion said:
Clever: yes. Kind: no, but I don't think there's a perception that she's cruel either.Stereotomy said:
You think people in this country think she's clever and kind?Endillion said:
A hatchet job in a foreign country's tabloid press, saying basically the opposite of the generally held perception of the people of this country. Who to believe, who to believe...rottenborough said:Wow. This in Spiegel on May:
" "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly." "
"It was the longest 30 minutes of my life."
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/theresa-may-s-brexit-disaster-a-1258101.html
If Parris has such a hot take on the Prime Minister of the day, why isn't he publishing it in his own newspaper?
https://twitter.com/Sideshow_Matt/status/1105786383178874880
I can only say that I wish May was showing half the cunning you seem to ascribe to her on immigration, in getting Brexit over the line. I don't think she's either cruel or stupid, but I think the evidence suggests she's unlikely to be both.
you may be right and she is just in fact be stupid and promoted well beyond her capabilities, regardless she is a disaster. Though I doubt she thought much about the implications on the public re her actions. 0 -
You could probably have stopped after 'Nobody wants to accept the blame'.MarqueeMark said:
Nobody wants to accept the blame for No Deal.Stark_Dawning said:
It's a astonishing how quickly they're crumbling. Presumably it was just posturing but then they finally realized these things would have catastrophic consequences and panic set in. There can be no other explanation.HYUFD said:
Nobody wants to accept the blame for not implementing the Referendum. Labour especially don't want to be painted as the reason for it when Tory MPs fall into line.
Nobody can negotiate with the EU by March 29th - and no indication they could if given years and years extension.
Nobody wants to accept the blame for lost jobs due to an extension of many many months/years.
Plus, we have a Parliament of Fuckwits and Spineless Gimps with the imagination of a caravan site. Really, what do you expect?
However Brexit pans out, I predict oodles of culpa and fuck all mea for the next few years.0 -
It clearly isn't the will of very many people.Ishmael_Z said:
But what if a march is Ther Will of Ther People?Recidivist said:
If you try to do something and it obviously isn't working that is the sensible thing to do.nico67 said:
Tragic and pathetic . Talk about a public relations own goal . They should just cancel it to save further humiliation.Theuniondivvie said:The White Walkers even more depleted today.
https://twitter.com/SirMustard/status/11072376898148638760 -
There are benefits? I'd love to know exactly what he thinks these are.williamglenn said:0 -
It ends free movement, ensures control of about 80% of our economy etcStark_Dawning said:
There are benefits? I'd love to know exactly what he thinks these are.williamglenn said:0 -
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I think Stark and the Brexit pixie were both talking about the benefits of the European Union. I too am interested to know what Hannan regards as the benefits.HYUFD said:
It ends free movement, ensures control of about 80% of our economy etcStark_Dawning said:
There are benefits? I'd love to know exactly what he thinks these are.williamglenn said:0 -
It was very childish but in current febrile situation I do not find it a surprise. People in UK have gone stark raving mad and have infected people in other countries in the process.viewcode said:
I'm pretty sure Brexit was not the reason for that (thinks for a minute) large-sheet-with-slogan-on- it (godsdammit, what is the word for that?)malcolmg said:
PS Banner0 -
But he's referring to the benefits of membership surely.HYUFD said:
It ends free movement, ensures control of about 80% of our economy etcStark_Dawning said:
There are benefits? I'd love to know exactly what he thinks these are.williamglenn said:0 -
Well, it's St Patrick's. Someone else who came from England and tried to help the Irish....viewcode said:
I'm pretty sure Brexit was not the reason for that (thinks for a minute) large-sheet-with-slogan-on- it (godsdammit, what is the word for that?)malcolmg said:0 -
Nothing Ng controversial about what Justin is predicting. it may or may or not happen, no real reason why Labour cannot gain Glasgow SW, Glasgow E, Dunfermline etc on a tiny swing from the SNP maybe even if their vote is down slightly overall where a tiny amount of tactical voting could even come in.malcolmg said:
Guaranteed it was not you that is for sure. Weaselling out with "I do not bet" says it all. Full of wind and piss.justin124 said:
Who spouted the best quality rubbish on here in May/June 2017?malcolmg said:
why you spouting rubbish on a betting site thenjustin124 said:
I do not bet at all - but have read your repeated comments on here in May 2017. Doubtless your current predictions will prove just as accurate.malcolmg said:
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.justin124 said:
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.malcolmg said:
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.kfowkes said:To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc seats, Chipping Barnet, Swindon S, Pudsey, Calder Valley, Broxtowe, Putney etc still look very winnable so that is still plausible.
The Lab-SNP Scotland battleground is unpredictable with only the Tories looking in a stable position. Labour has an outside chance of a 3/4% swing from the SNP which would see them gaining around a dozen seats and winning key seats such as East Kilbride, Glenrothes, Livingston etc
Overall I think the credible range of outcomes at the next election snap or otherwise is somewhere between a small Tory majority a la 2015 and Labour gaining 20 seats from the Tories in England and 12 from the SNP in Scotland resulting in Labour being narrowly the largest party leading a very unstable gvt.
This overall assumption I've largely stock too for the past year despite all the uncertainty.0 -
The deal will either crash and burn this week or scrape through and implode when it has to be incorporated into the WAIB.
None of the media seem to be talking about the Bill needed and seem to have ignored that . It’s likely that will turn into another drama .
Any legislation in that to appease the DUP will narrow UK options in terms of trade outside of the EU . They want the same relationship with the single market and CU as the rest of the UK.
You can’t square the circle of the backstop with that.0 -
Ah honest Jeremy Corbyn pro European, anti-racist, for the many not the j. oops! few. He really is the salt of the earth.NickPalmer said:
It's what he said to me - he'd previously been against because he saw it as reinforcing free market liberalism, but he felt that now there were more progressive forces in Europe to ally with so he'd changed his mind, without great enthusiasm. Exactly what he went on to say in public.DecrepitJohnL said:
Corbyn does not seem to care very much about the EU either way; he gave it 7 out of 10, iirc, which is about as far as David Cameron went.OldKingCole said:
Everyone's always said that Corbyn made his mind up about a lot of things when he was young, and generally speaking he's stuck to his views. He was a Bennite in the 70's and 80's, which meant he was opposed to the Common Market, because, as I recall it, it would prevent the development of a Socialist Britain.solarflare said:I get the impression Corbyn doesn't appear to know what his Brexit strategy is until he's just finished his previous sentence. A complete dogs breakfast of a "we are all things to all people" nonsense.
So why would anyone seriously think he's modified his views that much in later life?0 -
No once the deal gets through the Meaningful Vote the bill will rapidly progress. It will have already passed the Commons once so will again while the Lords won't want to be seen to risk a crash out of block this.nico67 said:The deal will either crash and burn this week or scrape through and implode when it has to be incorporated into the WAIB.
None of the media seem to be talking about the Bill needed and seem to have ignored that . It’s likely that will turn into another drama .
Any legislation in that to appease the DUP will narrow UK options in terms of trade outside of the EU . They want the same relationship with the single market and CU as the rest of the UK.
You can’t square the circle of the backstop with that.0 -
Thank you. I forget words. Still, google helps.malcolmg said:
It was very childish but in current febrile situation I do not find it a surprise. People in UK have gone stark raving mad and have infected people in other countries in the process.viewcode said:
I'm pretty sure Brexit was not the reason for that (thinks for a minute) large-sheet-with-slogan-on- it (godsdammit, what is the word for that?)malcolmg said:
PS Banner0 -
I did not say that was controversial and indeed could be likely, I objected to his stalking and the demented mantra he keeps adding to my posts re my thought that SNP would get 50 Mp's last time. I know it did not pan out that way.kfowkes said:
Nothing Ng controversial about what Justin is predicting. it may or may or not happen, no real reason why Labour cannot gain Glasgow SW, Glasgow E, Dunfermline etc on a tiny swing from the SNP maybe even if their vote is down slightly overall where a tiny amount of tactical voting could even come in.malcolmg said:
Guaranteed it was not you that is for sure. Weaselling out with "I do not bet" says it all. Full of wind and piss.justin124 said:
Who spouted the best quality rubbish on here in May/June 2017?malcolmg said:
why you spouting rubbish on a betting site thenjustin124 said:
I do not bet at all - but have read your repeated comments on here in May 2017. Doubtless your current predictions will prove just as accurate.malcolmg said:
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.justin124 said:
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.malcolmg said:
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.kfowkes said:To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc uncertainty.
He is a balloon, he does it constantly hoping to upset me but it just confirms my opinion that he is a bellend of the first order and further confirmed by his being unwilling to back up his big talk with his money, preferring to whine from the sidelines.
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Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.Anorak said:
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.Scott_P said:
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....0 -
I almost said placard at first and had to think a bit.viewcode said:
Thank you. I forget words. Still, google helps.malcolmg said:
It was very childish but in current febrile situation I do not find it a surprise. People in UK have gone stark raving mad and have infected people in other countries in the process.viewcode said:
I'm pretty sure Brexit was not the reason for that (thinks for a minute) large-sheet-with-slogan-on- it (godsdammit, what is the word for that?)malcolmg said:
PS Banner0 -
Dan Hannan not so keen on early redundancy now? If the WA was the final destination he might have more of a point.williamglenn said:0 -
His salary for startersRecidivist said:
I think Stark and the Brexit pixie were both talking about the benefits of the European Union. I too am interested to know what Hannan regards as the benefits.HYUFD said:
It ends free movement, ensures control of about 80% of our economy etcStark_Dawning said:
There are benefits? I'd love to know exactly what he thinks these are.williamglenn said:0 -
I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.brendan16 said:
Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.Anorak said:
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.Scott_P said:
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....0 -
Worthless as in reality you'd have Farage's Brexit Party whipping up a storm during the campaign...Scott_P said:0 -
Never thought we would see EU election polls for the UK again.Scott_P said:
If we are going to hold these polls - which are self standing 3 weeks after the local polls - local authorities and the parties are going to need to get moving soon.
How will each party pick the people on their list - by membership ballot or central diktat.
Will there be any remainers/ERG supporters at the top of the Tory lists?
Will the 17% UKIP vote stay with UKIP or go to the Farage Brexit party. For example half the UKIP MEPs left in Brussels (there aren't many left with the UKIP label!) still sit with Farage in his group while Batten has moved over to the Le Pen/Salvini ENF group. If the two parties split the 17% they may struggle to get any seats outside possibly the huge South east region
Will the Tiggers run their own slate - or link up with the Lib Dems?
Will Momentum decide who is on the Labour list - with a potential purge of their existing MEPs as is planned for the London Assembly?
What will happen in Wales, Scotland and NI?
This first national 'people's vote' since we didn't leave on 29 March could be interesting. Its the perfect protest vehicle for people hacked off with the main parties - as its almost risk free. People can vote for their first choice - not the lesser of two evils as they are forced to under FPTP.
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There seems to be quite a lot of push back against May's deal today... Don't think this thing is passing this week?williamglenn said:0 -
I normally agree with Daniel Hannan (even when I was a Remainer I found him intelligent and thought provoking unlike most sceptic dingbats like Farage). But even as a bitter opponent of the deal I think this is wrong.williamglenn said:
Clearly after the transition we lose most of the costs. Including quite literally the cost.
We also get most of the benefits of leaving.
I oppose the deal on principle as I find the backstop an unconscionable infringement of our human rights. Which to me trumps all other cost/benefit arguments. Had it not been for the backstop the cost/benefit ratio is this is a great deal.0 -
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Much more appeasement of the DUP will be counterproductive in terms of votes at the locals.nico67 said:The deal will either crash and burn this week or scrape through and implode when it has to be incorporated into the WAIB.
None of the media seem to be talking about the Bill needed and seem to have ignored that . It’s likely that will turn into another drama .
Any legislation in that to appease the DUP will narrow UK options in terms of trade outside of the EU . They want the same relationship with the single market and CU as the rest of the UK.
You can’t square the circle of the backstop with that.0 -
tlg86 said:
I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.brendan16 said:
Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.Anorak said:
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.Scott_P said:
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
You cynical little mugwump you.HYUFD said:
His salary for startersRecidivist said:
I think Stark and the Brexit pixie were both talking about the benefits of the European Union. I too am interested to know what Hannan regards as the benefits.HYUFD said:
It ends free movement, ensures control of about 80% of our economy etcStark_Dawning said:
There are benefits? I'd love to know exactly what he thinks these are.williamglenn said:
He actually represents me, and a great many other people, in the European Parliament. We should look at the size of EU constituencies for the EU Parliament when we get back in/when Brexit has been cancelled. I don't think it is working well for democratic accountability.0 -
Makes me think of Custer's Last Stand.GIN1138 said:
There seems to be quite a lot of push back against May's deal today... Don't think this thing is passing this week?williamglenn said:0 -
Sad sad thought about New Zealand. The violent battle between Islamists and far right terrorists will only worsen, and intensify.
Compare Ulster. The Islamists are the IRA, the white supremacists are the Loyalists: the inevitable, bloody and hideous reaction. 0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
F1: watched the highlights covering the bit of the race I missed earlier.
Pretty good opening race, I thought.0 -
Is the same set of respondents being used when prompting for TIG?Scott_P said:
The Scotland sub-samples look weird
SCon 34-> 25% when TIG prompted
SLab 17-> 8%
Libdem 0-> 4% (OK that I can accept)
TIG 4%
SNP 44-> 51% ??0 -
"He actually represents me, and a great many other people, in the European Parliament. We should look at the size of EU constituencies for the EU Parliament when we get back in/when Brexit has been cancelled. I don't think it is working well for democratic accountability."
I tend to agree on this point - some of our constituencies have as few as 3 seats (North east and NI) yet the North west and London have 8 and the south east 10. I can see you can't do much about Wales, Scotland and NI - but surely the English regions should all have roughly the same numbers of MEPs.
At present you need over 30% of the vote to elect an MEP in the north east but less than 10% in the south east. So smaller parties stand far more chance of electing MEPs in some areas (e.g. London and the SE) than others - and thus the national outcome is not as proportional as it should be. This is evident from 2014 - where the Lib Dems won only one seat in the south east region as it was the largest constituency. Too late for 2019 - but if we are still members in 2024....
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How the thunderstorms were centred over the south and se . London’s turnout was lower than many other areas. That was a key Remain area .tlg86 said:
I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.brendan16 said:
Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.Anorak said:
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.Scott_P said:
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
The highest leave voting areas were dry . The voters in the C2DE demographic came out in higher numbers than expected , they’re also more likely to be effected by the weather in terms of intention to vote .
Not saying Remain would have won as the turnouts in Scotland and NI weren’t great . But it would have been closer .
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I meant to add that is Westminster VI0
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Todays YG Outlier still has Tories ahead0
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The paper said that the rain made no difference to remain areas of the South East but it may have depressed turnout in leave areas of the South East.nico67 said:
How the thunderstorms were centred over the south and se . London’s turnout was lower than many other areas. That was a key Remain area .tlg86 said:
I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.brendan16 said:
Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.Anorak said:
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.Scott_P said:
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
The highest leave voting areas were dry . The voters in the C2DE demographic came out in higher numbers than expected , they’re also more likely to be effected by the weather in terms of intention to vote .
Not saying Remain would have won as the turnouts in Scotland and NI weren’t great . But it would have been closer .0 -
CON: 35% (-5)
LAB: 31% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+1)
UKIP: 6% (+3)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)0 -
Here's the study -- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629817301300?via=ihubnico67 said:
How the thunderstorms were centred over the south and se . London’s turnout was lower than many other areas. That was a key Remain area .tlg86 said:
I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.brendan16 said:
Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.Anorak said:
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.Scott_P said:
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
The highest leave voting areas were dry . The voters in the C2DE demographic came out in higher numbers than expected , they’re also more likely to be effected by the weather in terms of intention to vote .
Not saying Remain would have won as the turnouts in Scotland and NI weren’t great . But it would have been closer .0 -
Would be helpful to provide some context for those numbers...bigjohnowls said:CON: 35% (-5)
LAB: 31% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+1)
UKIP: 6% (+3)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)0 -
Some Loyalists are already white supremacists, so a bit of crossover going on.SeanT said:Sad sad thought about New Zealand. The violent battle between Islamists and far right terrorists will only worsen, and intensify.
Compare Ulster. The Islamists are the IRA, the white supremacists are the Loyalists: the inevitable, bloody and hideous reaction.
0 -
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1107296322707750912?s=19RobD said:
Would be helpful to provide some context for those numbers...bigjohnowls said:CON: 35% (-5)
LAB: 31% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+1)
UKIP: 6% (+3)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)0 -
Todays YG Outlier Compared to 4/3/19 YGORobD said:
Would be helpful to provide some context for those numbers...bigjohnowls said:CON: 35% (-5)
LAB: 31% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+1)
UKIP: 6% (+3)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)
Theresa May is...
Competent: 39% (-6)
Incompetent: 46% (+8)
Trustworthy: 36% (-3)
Untrustworthy: 45% (+5)
Strong: 35% (+5)
Weak: 50% (-)
Likeable: 32% (+2)
Dislikeable: 46% (+1)
via @YouGov, 14 - 15 Mar
Chgs. w/ 27 Sep
0 -
Interesting thanks for posting the link . I’m happy to accept that.RobD said:
Here's the study -- https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0962629817301300?via=ihubnico67 said:
How the thunderstorms were centred over the south and se . London’s turnout was lower than many other areas. That was a key Remain area .tlg86 said:
I can't find it now, but someone on here linked to an academic paper that suggested that the bad weather on 23/06/2016 actually hindered leave.brendan16 said:
Many of us of course remember the weather on the referendum day itself - there were torrential downpours in London which disrupted the transport system significantly. Turnout was well below expected in London - which may potentially have depressed the remain vote. Back when it counted God was presumably backing Brexit.Anorak said:
The fact that the weather has so consistently conspired against them means that God is a remainer. Leavers are therefore blasphemers and should be cast into a fiery pit.Scott_P said:
Perhaps God has shifted from leave to remain and now supports a people's vote - or is a fervent backer of Mrs May's deal?....
The highest leave voting areas were dry . The voters in the C2DE demographic came out in higher numbers than expected , they’re also more likely to be effected by the weather in terms of intention to vote .
Not saying Remain would have won as the turnouts in Scotland and NI weren’t great . But it would have been closer .0 -
Theresa May should...
Remain Conservative leader: 33%
Get the Fook out of here: 45%
via @YouGov, 14 - 15 Mar0 -
Seems a completely over the top comparison.SeanT said:Sad sad thought about New Zealand. The violent battle between Islamists and far right terrorists will only worsen, and intensify.
Compare Ulster. The Islamists are the IRA, the white supremacists are the Loyalists: the inevitable, bloody and hideous reaction.
There is no Islamist threat in NZ as far as I can see, probably not much of a right wing threat either - the ringleader was apparently Australian.
Maybe that's not what you meant and were referring to the world as a whole rather than comparing NZ to NI?
PS Started reading 'The Ice Twins'0 -
Ah, thanks!bigjohnowls said:
Todays YG Outlier Compared to 4/3/19 YGORobD said:
Would be helpful to provide some context for those numbers...bigjohnowls said:CON: 35% (-5)
LAB: 31% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+1)
UKIP: 6% (+3)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)
Theresa May is...
Competent: 39% (-6)
Incompetent: 46% (+8)
Trustworthy: 36% (-3)
Untrustworthy: 45% (+5)
Strong: 35% (+5)
Weak: 50% (-)
Likeable: 32% (+2)
Dislikeable: 46% (+1)
via @YouGov, 14 - 15 Mar
Chgs. w/ 27 Sep0 -
Dangerous far right nutters have been around for decades.0
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Barely a 'ringleader' either. Did he have more than one or two accomplices? And do we know yet if they were Kiwi or Aussie?logical_song said:
Seems a completely over the top comparison.SeanT said:Sad sad thought about New Zealand. The violent battle between Islamists and far right terrorists will only worsen, and intensify.
Compare Ulster. The Islamists are the IRA, the white supremacists are the Loyalists: the inevitable, bloody and hideous reaction.
There is no Islamist threat in NZ as far as I can see, probably not much of a right wing threat either - the ringleader was apparently Australian.
Maybe that's not what you meant and were referring to the world as a whole rather than comparing NZ to NI?
PS Started reading 'The Ice Twins'
And I don't think there's much of a comparison with Ulster, either. Both sides there have a comprehensible political dimension as well as a gang of psychotic hangers-on.0 -
So Tories lose 5 - mostly to UKIP and 'Brex'.Foxy said:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1107296322707750912?s=19RobD said:
Would be helpful to provide some context for those numbers...bigjohnowls said:CON: 35% (-5)
LAB: 31% (-)
LDEM: 12% (+1)
UKIP: 6% (+3)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)
I presume 'Brex' is the Brexit party? Do they even exist except online - odd that despite all those walkouts on climate change by schoolkids last week they are already matching the Greens.
Taking a break from the march Farage did his Sunday morning radio show earlier. He had Michael Portillo on for the first 30 minutes - discussing everything from Brexit to the cancellation of This Week. Portillo is always worth a listen - whether its on politics or on train journeys to exotic and less exotic destinations.
Perhaps he could team up with Joanna Lumley once his TW duties end in the summer!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EioHdkKWDs0 -
0
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Well this bellend did predict that the SNP would struggle to hold 40 seats in 2017 - and that Labour could well end up on 4 or 5. Not perfect - but better than most forecasts.malcolmg said:
I did not say that was controversial and indeed could be likely, I objected to his stalking and the demented mantra he keeps adding to my posts re my thought that SNP would get 50 Mp's last time. I know it did not pan out that way.kfowkes said:
Nothing Ng controversial about what Justin is predicting. it may or may or not happen, no real reason why Labour cannot gain Glasgow SW, Glasgow E, Dunfermline etc on a tiny swing from the SNP maybe even if their vote is down slightly overall where a tiny amount of tactical voting could even come in.malcolmg said:
Guaranteed it was not you that is for sure. Weaselling out with "I do not bet" says it all. Full of wind and piss.justin124 said:
Who spouted the best quality rubbish on here in May/June 2017?malcolmg said:
why you spouting rubbish on a betting site thenjustin124 said:
I do not bet at all - but have read your repeated comments on here in May 2017. Doubtless your current predictions will prove just as accurate.malcolmg said:
Your point is caller, want to put your money where your mouth is. I do not expect to hear back from you.justin124 said:
I believe you said much the same in May 2017 regarding the possibility of the SNP dropping below 50 seats.malcolmg said:
There is not a cats chance in hell of Labour gaining 12 from SNP. Happy to have a wager if you want to lose some money.kfowkes said:To get into power with an extremely unstable rainbow alliance in theory Labour only has to make a net gain of around 10 seats from the tories.
Seats such as Hastings and Rye, Norwich N, The Milton Keynes, Northampton etc uncertainty.
He is a balloon, he does it constantly hoping to upset me but it just confirms my opinion that he is a bellend of the first order and further confirmed by his being unwilling to back up his big talk with his money, preferring to whine from the sidelines.0 -
F1: post-race analysis of an interesting race and a green weekend:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/australia-post-race-analysis-2019.html0 -
Miss Vance, to be fair, culinary puritans are bloody tedious.
https://twitter.com/HeroOfHornska/status/11040510658367201280 -
NEW THREAD0
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Yes I was taking the western world as a whole. Which is fair, I think. Islamism sees the entire kaffir world as a target; the white guy in New Zealand said his target could’ve been anywhere.logical_song said:
Seems a completely over the top comparison.SeanT said:Sad sad thought about New Zealand. The violent battle between Islamists and far right terrorists will only worsen, and intensify.
Compare Ulster. The Islamists are the IRA, the white supremacists are the Loyalists: the inevitable, bloody and hideous reaction.
There is no Islamist threat in NZ as far as I can see, probably not much of a right wing threat either - the ringleader was apparently Australian.
Maybe that's not what you meant and were referring to the world as a whole rather than comparing NZ to NI?
PS Started reading 'The Ice Twins'
PS enjoy the ice twins!0
