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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Key fact: Biden leads the Dem 2020 polling despite not yet run

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited March 2019
    Oh, and Congratulations to Wales on the Slam. Best team this year, Ireland didn’t even bother turning up today.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,136

    Hopefully that will be 2 million more people who are going to find out in the near future what all other mass marches have found over the years - that they make not a blind bit of difference.
    That Iraq march may not have changed the government's mind at the time, but it certainly cemented the narrative that the government was in denial about public opinion and helped bury Blair's reputation for good.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    F1: hmm. Have a handful of maybe-value bets, so the ramble might be a little later. We'll see.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,111
    edited March 2019
    The problem with Labours position is that what they want can only go into the non legally binding future relationship . What happens in the future depends on the government and it’s majority.

    The only way the future relationship gets sorted is by a general election with one side having a clear majority .

    After Brexit the next Tory Leadership could well be the catalyst for more defections from them to the TIG .

    If Bozo gets in that will cause huge problems . They need a Leaver who can bring both sides together .

    Whether you like him or not Gove is that person . He’s been loyal to May , has pushed for a deal versus no deal and has been quite conciliatory in tone towards the more pro EU wing of the party .
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    *sighs*

    I had hoped my bet on England versus Italy being the top scoring match was going to come off.

    It is looking quite shaky.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860

    So we agree that there is no mandate for a second referendum
    No, we agree that there is a direct procedural precedent for a referendum on the deal.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482

    A second referendum is perfectly acceptable, although a 52-48 vote for Remain would be problematic. A straight up cancellation would be disastrous, but it should see the end of most of the Wankers of Westminster's political careers, so it's not all bad.
    A second referendum is the worst of all possible choices. I'd perhaps say that I prefer Corbyn - but it's a tie, abandoning sense altogether in both cases.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    IanB2 said:

    That Iraq march may not have changed the government's mind at the time, but it certainly cemented the narrative that the government was in denial about public opinion and helped bury Blair's reputation for good.
    Yet they re-elected the Blair government two years later.

    What has damaged Blair's reputation was the failure of his warmongering.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364

    Why should anyone pay attention to a second referendum when the first was ignored ?

    Or do referenda only count when they produce the answer the establishment wants ?
    Cheeky!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    No, we agree that there is a direct procedural precedent for a referendum on the deal.
    A newly elected government.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    Sandpit said:

    Oh, and Congratulations to Wales on the Slam. Best team this year, Ireland didn’t even bother turning up today.

    The number of easy home wins is becoming embarassing.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    An alternative explanation is that Western governments have been treating too many of their own people like crap.
    Both could be true. In the same way I might have grabbed a Big Mac earlier because I'd seen the advert or maybe I was a bit peckish. Or both.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,860

    A newly elected government.
    The coalition was negotiated, not elected.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    The coalition was negotiated, not elected.
    Following an election.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    I never understood the negativity on here around Biden. I mentioned him about a couple of months ago and found no support regarding the strength of his candidacy.

    In reality though, at least today, he is a strong candidate. He is a direct counter to Trump in attitude and approach.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292
    HYUFD said:

    People's Vote is aiming for up to 2 million in London next Saturday, would have been more sensible for the March to Leave to just hold a rival rally in Sunderland on the same day, most Leavers do not want to do a hike across the UK to make a point
    I think 2 million is rather over egging it for the #putittothepeople march next Saturday. A lot depends what happens this week, and also the weather, but matching October's march must be the target.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Foxy said:

    I think 2 million is rather over egging it for the #putittothepeople march next Saturday. A lot depends what happens this week, and also the weather, but matching October's march must be the target.
    Seems pretty achievable. Would be an interesting experience if the deal were passed beforehand . All those 'it's not too late' placards might technically be still true but it would have to have a different tone to it.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,080

    Hopefully that will be 2 million more people who are going to find out in the near future what all other mass marches have found over the years - that they make not a blind bit of difference.
    The 2 million march against Blair's Iraq war did not change his mind but it did make a difference. All of us who marched and all our families and friends remember it, and will never forgive Blair.

    Those who march on the 23rd including my family and numerous friends and neighbours including Tories friends will remember it, and will never forgive May and her Tory associates if our voices are ignored. It will make a difference.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    So rather than catcall & screech about Corbyn, you really, really want to understand the people who vote for far left polices? You've done a masterful job of hiding you curiosity about the motivations of those particulary voters up to now, thumbs down on the catcalling & screeching bit though.
    Good to see you acknowledging that Corbyn's Labour makes no claims for centrism. Progress at last. :)
  • Y0kel said:

    I never understood the negativity on here around Biden. I mentioned him about a couple of months ago and found no support regarding the strength of his candidacy.

    In reality though, at least today, he is a strong candidate. He is a direct counter to Trump in attitude and approach.

    His speech at the 2016 was an absolute barnstormer, he has the broad appeal that many of those with their hat currently in the ring do not.

    People like Sanders and O'Rourke aren't going to cut it in the rust belt.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292
    Cicero said:

    https://codastory.com/disinformation/yellow-vests-donbas-paris/

    Here is yet another link between disruption in the West and Russian subversion. There is considerable evidence of a systematic and sustained attempt to damage democratic states that is both coordinated and funded by the Kremlin.

    How many Donbass veterans on the march in Hartlepool? my money is on less than 50.

    https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1106947553294196737?s=19
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,292

    His speech at the 2016 was an absolute barnstormer, he has the broad appeal that many of those with their hat currently in the ring do not.

    People like Sanders and O'Rourke aren't going to cut it in the rust belt.
    Biden is too old, too stale and too handsy.

    The Dems need a new generation against Trump. Hickenlooper or Klobuchar should do well in the Midwest and other Mid America. Kamala may be worth it just to see her in the debates against Trump.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    I think we're due another Macron lecture:

    https://twitter.com/hollywoodcurry/status/1106973279166844928
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,692

    Really? What about the AV referendum which went against a manifesto commitment to FPTP by the Tories 2010?
    No2AV 68%
    Yes2AV 32%

    :innocent:

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    His speech at the 2016 was an absolute barnstormer, he has the broad appeal that many of those with their hat currently in the ring do not.

    People like Sanders and O'Rourke aren't going to cut it in the rust belt.
    He's gaffe prone and his two previous attempts ended in failure. He's also too old
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    He's gaffe prone and his two previous attempts ended in failure. He's also too old
    Trumpis also over 70, so age will be less of an issue. The last candidate to beat an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Reagan, was 69. Biden is the Democrats best bet to win the rustbelt swing states.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531

    He's gaffe prone and his two previous attempts ended in failure. He's also too old
    He opposed the Kuwait War in 1991 but supported the Iraq War in 2003.

    Clearly a man of sound judgement.

    He's also got a long history or plagiarism.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,692
    Barnesian said:

    The 2 million march against Blair's Iraq war did not change his mind but it did make a difference. All of us who marched and all our families and friends remember it, and will never forgive Blair.
    I went on three of the 2003 marches, the one just before war broke out, the one about a month after, and the "Bush Sucks" rally that November.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482

    I think we're due another Macron lecture:

    https://twitter.com/hollywoodcurry/status/1106973279166844928

    I don't know where this place is, but surely not Republican France. If you're in the streets of Paris, wearing a yellow vest or not, and you see that sort on nonsense you just go home.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121

    A second referendum is perfectly acceptable, although a 52-48 vote for Remain would be problematic. A straight up cancellation would be disastrous, but it should see the end of most of the Wankers of Westminster's political careers, so it's not all bad.
    According to Portillo's reading of the Commons on This Week MPs would very narrowly vote even to revoke Article 50 rather than allow No Deal, the vote to defy the Government and to reject No Deal in all circumstances being key
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    Barnesian said:

    The 2 million march against Blair's Iraq war did not change his mind but it did make a difference. All of us who marched and all our families and friends remember it, and will never forgive Blair.

    Those who march on the 23rd including my family and numerous friends and neighbours including Tories friends will remember it, and will never forgive May and her Tory associates if our voices are ignored. It will make a difference.
    If the Referendum had been 52% Remain would you be marching for a second referendum ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,574
    Scott_P said:
    A massive drag on Wales' prospects is being Welsh.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Scott_P said:
    Interesting language to have picked up.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,111
    It’s always someone else’s fault. Mr Grimes needs to stop whining .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,121
    edited March 2019
    Foxy said:

    Biden is too old, too stale and too handsy.

    The Dems need a new generation against Trump. Hickenlooper or Klobuchar should do well in the Midwest and other Mid America. Kamala may be worth it just to see her in the debates against Trump.
    Hickenlooper is too centrist to win the nomination, he is the Democrats Jon Huntsman. Klobuchar has campaign problems. Kamala does not have Biden's appeal in the Midwest swing states
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited March 2019
    Scott_P said:
    Pete Buttigieg seems to be this site's new darling - now the star of Robert Francis O'Rourke (its St Patricks day weekend so its ok for him to remember his ancestors were Irish!!) appears to be waning?

    Unusual as you say to find a Norwegian speaker in Indiana - his dad who died just a few weeks ago was from Malta so that doesn't explain it.

    What is it with all this dirt suddenly being dug up on poor Beto - he is seemingly getting the Tulsi Gabbard treatment from the media.
  • brendan16 said:

    Pete Buttigieg seems to be this site's new darling - now the star of Robert Francis O'Rourke (its St Patricks day weekend so its ok for him to remember his ancestors were Irish!!) appears to be waning?

    Unusual as you say to find a Norwegian speaker in Indiana - his dad who died just a few weeks ago was from Malta so that doesn't explain it.

    What is it with all this dirt suddenly being dug up on poor Beto - he is seemingly getting the Tulsi Gabbard treatment from the media.
    If you can speak English and German you are well on the way to speaking Norwegian too.

    Not sure there are many German speakers in Indiana though.
  • Scott_P said:

    The telling line there is "mood in my constituency changing quickly"

    How about the mood in the country? Maybe we should find out? We could ask the people? Just needs a catchy name...
    ramona's fetish?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Swansea actually playing football against Man City in stark contrast to Watford's dreadful effort last qeek
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Foxy said:

    Biden is too old, too stale and too handsy.

    The Dems need a new generation against Trump. Hickenlooper or Klobuchar should do well in the Midwest and other Mid America. Kamala may be worth it just to see her in the debates against Trump.
    Biden will certainly be a very 'hands on' President as you say.

    Amazing he gets a pass on this in the current climate!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    nico67 said:

    It’s always someone else’s fault. Mr Grimes needs to stop whining .
    He should be besties with Carole then....
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    edited March 2019
    kle4 said:
    Its not that hard to learn. The verb structure is very simple with little conjugation. Indeed the biggest problem with Norwegian is that, to some extent, it doesn't exist. The original language Old Norse which is quite similar to Icelandic is no longer spoken. The most common language dating from the Swedish rule is Bokmal which is 'book language' and then there is Neu-Norsk which was invented after independence. But outside of Oslo very few people speak it.

    Edit: Also if you speak Glaswegian then you are half way there already.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Completely OT but hell of a comeback for the Hammers. 3-1 down with 14 minutes to play and won 4-3
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    If you can speak English and German you are well on the way to speaking Norwegian too.

    Not sure there are many German speakers in Indiana though.
    Pretty sure there are Amish and/or Mennonites in Indiana and they speak an archaic form of German at home.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Betting Post

    F1: pre-race ramble is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2019/03/australia-pre-race-2019.html

    In the end, I had a few 50/50 type bets and decided to back Verstappen at 2.2 for a podium. His qualifying pace was essentially equal to the Ferraris but the Honda likely has inferior qualifying modes, meaning the Red Bull should be better than Ferrari in race trim. That's my thinking anyway.

    Race starts at 5.10am.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531

    If you can speak English and German you are well on the way to speaking Norwegian too.

    Not sure there are many German speakers in Indiana though.
    Don't the Amish speak a form of 18th century German ?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited March 2019
    Seeing the way ManCity are playing some of the Champions League odds are ridiculous. With only 8 teams left and 3 sets of matches for the winner the four longest odds teams offer serious value. 100-1 Porto is absurd. 28-1 Tottenham and 33-1 Ajax are incredible odds given the stage of the competition. Man Utd at 20-1 is seriously seriously worth a punt.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Barnesian said:

    The 2 million march against Blair's Iraq war did not change his mind but it did make a difference. All of us who marched and all our families and friends remember it, and will never forgive Blair.

    Those who march on the 23rd including my family and numerous friends and neighbours including Tories friends will remember it, and will never forgive May and her Tory associates if our voices are ignored. It will make a difference.
    It will make no difference at all and nor should it. You will rightly be ignored and so you should be.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    It will make no difference at all and nor should it. You will rightly be ignored and so you should be.
    But I guarantee people like you loved it when the crowds brought down Ceaucescu.

    The hardline Brexiteers really don't help their cause through their pigheadedness.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,522
    Opinium Research have Con 38%, Lab 35%, UKIP and Lib Dem 8% each
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,950

    Completely OT but hell of a comeback for the Hammers. 3-1 down with 14 minutes to play and won 4-3

    Not as big as at Twickers!!!!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531

    But I guarantee people like you loved it when the crowds brought down Ceaucescu.

    The hardline Brexiteers really don't help their cause through their pigheadedness.
    That well known democracy Ceaucescu's Romania.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,574
    This England game is looking like a betting coup!
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited March 2019

    Its not that hard to learn. The verb structure is very simple with little conjugation. Indeed the biggest problem with Norwegian is that, to some extent, it doesn't exist. The original language Old Norse which is quite similar to Icelandic is no longer spoken. The most common language dating from the Swedish rule is Bokmal which is 'book language' and then there is Neu-Norsk which was invented after independence. But outside of Oslo very few people speak it.

    Edit: Also if you speak Glaswegian then you are half way there already.

    Actually Bokmal is very close to standard Danish. Norway had been ruled by Denmark as a province for centuries before the Swedes took it in 1815. In fact, from 1815 to 1905 Norway was in a personal union with Sweden but with its own government and parliament akin to how Scotland was with England from 1603 to 1707. So there wasn't really any Swedification of Norwegian. I've heard from Nordic colleagues that standard Danish, Norwegian and Swedish have a high degree of mutual intelligibility. They all agree though that no-one can understand the dialect of the once-Danish now Swedish region of Scania!

    Icelandic is quite a different kettle of fish and remains so close to Old Norse that Icelanders can still read the Viking sagas in the original without much difficulty. It would be akin to the people of the Isle of Wight still speaking a form of Old English (i.e. Anglo-Saxon).
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    It will make no difference at all and nor should it. You will rightly be ignored and so you should be.
    Yes, quite right Mr Tyndall. Only crooked millionaires, other charlatans and Russians should have their voices heard. And if they are heard once, the vast majority can be safely ignored thereafter.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Q

    But I guarantee people like you loved it when the crowds brought down Ceaucescu.

    The hardline Brexiteers really don't help their cause through their pigheadedness.
    You think we should change government via mass marches in London?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    rpjs said:

    Actually Bokmal is very close to standard Danish. Norway had been ruled by Denmark as a province for centuries before the Swedes took it in 1815. In fact, from 1815 to 1905 Norway was in a personal union with Sweden but with its own government and parliament akin to how Scotland was with England from 1603 to 1707. So there wasn't really any Swedification of Norwegian. I've heard from Nordic colleagues that standard Danish, Norwegian and Swedish have a high degree of mutual intelligibility. They all agree that no-one can understand the dialect of the once-Danish now Swedish region of Scania!

    Icelandic is quite a different kettle of fish and remains so close to Old Norse that Icelanders can still read the Viking sagas in the original without much difficulty. It would be akin to the people of the Isle of Wight still speaking a form of Old English (i.e. Anglo-Saxon).
    Once again PB being a source of new knowledge.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    PClipp said:

    Yes, quite right Mr Tyndall. Only crooked millionaires, other charlatans and Russians should have their voices heard. And if they are heard once, the vast majority can be safely ignored thereafter.
    Who are this 'vast majority' ?

    The LibDem 8% ?

    Or is it as usual "people like me not people like them" ?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    PClipp said:

    Yes, quite right Mr Tyndall. Only crooked millionaires, other charlatans and Russians should have their voices heard. And if they are heard once, the vast majority can be safely ignored thereafter.
    Only morons think that marches should change government policy. They do not represent anyone except themselves. And when it comes to crooked millionaires and charlatans the Lib Dems are experts of course.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited March 2019

    But I guarantee people like you loved it when the crowds brought down Ceaucescu.

    The hardline Brexiteers really don't help their cause through their pigheadedness.
    I don't know if the comparison you seek to make holds up at all and therefore does not help your case.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited March 2019
    Well yes, but that was after the gap bizarrely opened up in the first place.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    rpjs said:

    Actually Bokmal is very close to standard Danish. Norway had been ruled by Denmark as a province for centuries before the Swedes took it in 1815. In fact, from 1815 to 1905 Norway was in a personal union with Sweden but with its own government and parliament akin to how Scotland was with England from 1603 to 1707. So there wasn't really any Swedification of Norwegian. I've heard from Nordic colleagues that standard Danish, Norwegian and Swedish have a high degree of mutual intelligibility. They all agree though that no-one can understand the dialect of the once-Danish now Swedish region of Scania!

    Icelandic is quite a different kettle of fish and remains so close to Old Norse that Icelanders can still read the Viking sagas in the original without much difficulty. It would be akin to the people of the Isle of Wight still speaking a form of Old English (i.e. Anglo-Saxon).
    They do indeed have a degree of interchangability. But only a degree. It makes it easier to learn the respective languages but is certainly not close enough that you could get away with speaking Norwegian in Denmark and be easily understood. I know. I have tried.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    But I guarantee people like you loved it when the crowds brought down Ceaucescu.

    The hardline Brexiteers really don't help their cause through their pigheadedness.
    Unless you are planning a violent revolution then I would suggest the comparison is badly - and quite offensively - misplaced.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,111
    If the latest rumours are true re something in the WAIB for the DUP .

    Then effectively that rules out a border in the Irish Sea which then means the UK will have greater difficulty in exiting the backstop .

    It seems as if the DUP don’t really care if the whole UK remains in the customs union . The phyto sanitary checks are the big problem in exiting the backstop , that would have been easier to accomplish with that between the UK and Ireland /NI.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Why should anyone pay attention to a second referendum when the first was ignored ?

    Or do referenda only count when they produce the answer the establishment wants ?
    "Ignored" in the sense that parliament, the government and pb have discussed nothing else for nearly three solid years?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Ishmael_Z said:

    "Ignored" in the sense that parliament, the government and pb have discussed nothing else for nearly three solid years?
    Ignored in the sense that Parliament continues to refuse to actually allow it to happen.
  • NEW THREAD

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,356
    BBC 6 Nations page has crashed.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,531
    Ishmael_Z said:

    "Ignored" in the sense that parliament, the government and pb have discussed nothing else for nearly three solid years?
    Discussing something is not the same as doing it.

    " This is your decision. The Government will implement what you decide. "

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Why should anyone pay attention to a second referendum when the first was ignored ?

    Or do referenda only count when they produce the answer the establishment wants ?
    To which the answer would be that Brexit is turning out to be way more damaging than anyone expected and simply has to be cancelled. That's why it should be revoked. No need for a new vote.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    To which the answer would be that Brexit is turning out to be way more damaging than anyone expected and simply has to be cancelled. That's why it should be revoked. No need for a new vote.
    Brexit hasn't happened yet. What is damaging is those trying to prevent it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    To which the answer would be that Brexit is turning out to be way more damaging than anyone expected and simply has to be cancelled. That's why it should be revoked. No need for a new vote.
    People cannot simultaneously dismiss any good or ok news because we haven't left yet and also claim the damage from Brexit has been so bad it must be cancelled. And yes, it means people cannot claim good news as being despite Brexit then dismiss bad news because Brexit hasn't happened yet.
This discussion has been closed.