politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And so MPs move on to vote against leaving the EU with no deal

not_on_fire said:

Is the motion passed tonight legally binding on the Givernment? If the EU say no to an extension and May’s deal is voted down again, is May legally obliged to revoke A50?

Streeter said:

tlg86 said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1105918555932033027?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1105918555932033027&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/13/brexit-mps-to-vote-on-leaving-the-eu-with-no-deal-politics-live

I'm getting very confused - how did the Spelman vote do that?

Had Spelman not passed then there would not have been a whip so they'd have been free to vote against No Deal. Instead, it was whipped and the likes of Rudd had to go against the government.

Yvette Cooper would make a fine LOTO.

tlg86 said:

kle4 said:

tlg86 said:

kle4 said:

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1105918555932033027?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1105918555932033027&ref_url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/13/brexit-mps-to-vote-on-leaving-the-eu-with-no-deal-politics-live

I'm getting very confused - how did the Spelman vote do that?

Had Spelman not passed then there would not have been a whip so they'd have been free to vote against No Deal. Instead, it was whipped and the likes of Rudd had to go against the government.

What of it? They got what they wanted, no deal vote passed, and no one 'has' to follow the whip if prepared to face the consequences, which they had repeatedly claimed they were.

Clearly they are concerned about their careers once this is over.

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

May, she is an utter disaster.

You know what?

I’m not shy of criticising May’s political skills and leadership style but I’m getting a little bit tired of this.

She’s the only one who’s worked night and day to try and bring a deal about, and hasn’t given up or moved on trying to deliver on the Brexit mandate regardless of the obstacles or difficulties. And she’s had to put up with a remarkable amount of shit (from everyone) to do this when hardly anyone (perhaps no one) has had any better ideas to how to execute it.

She’s earned my respect for her tenacity, determination and sense of duty if nothing else. So, no, I won’t dump it all on her.

Casino_Royale said:

eek said:

Casino_Royale said:

Slackbladder said:

Penny seems to be dropping for a few of the ERG.

I said only yesterday that the moronic thickos would only work this out 72 hours too late.

They’ve surpassed themselves.

75 of them needed to work this out. While some seem to have worked it out have all the people required worked it out yet?

No.

rcs1000 said:

I quite like the Weathersoon's pubs. Sure, they're a bit too well lit, but the food and the beer are decent, and the prices (usually thanks to Eastern European immigration...) low.

But Tim is a bit of an arse.

I remember he railing against the EU, on the basis that if we left, then we could have free trade, just like the rest of the world did*. I would have loved to have quizzed him on the US-China free trade agreement. Or the Japan-Canada one. Or the Australia-Brazil one.

He's clearly not an idiot. But he's also clearly a complete bulshitter, who has an idea and then assumes the world will fit in with his preconceptions.

* He could have said "we could follow the examples of Switzerland, South Korea and Singapore to forge new trade agreements", but I think he actually believed that outside the EU, all the other countries traded without tariffs.

_Anazina_ said:

Can someone summarise what’s going on? I’m trying to watch two football matches and follow Westminster while drinking very average Malbec. I’m bloody confused!

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

3 line whip

Wow Ministers including 4 Cabinet - Rudd, Perry, Stephen Hammond, Buckland, Clark, Mundell, Ellwood, Gauke, Richard Harrington, Burt, James, Milton - all abstained on the main motion

I confess I cannot think of the last time the Chancellor of the Exchequer defied a three line whip. Possibly Ritchie in 1903?

AndyJS said:

Theresa May has obviously decided not to sack ministers who vote against the government, but doing so damages her authority and credibility even if it's the sensible thing to do in these particular circumstances.

Andrew said:

algarkirk said:

The sanest course now is for the EU to decline to allow an extension, at which point TMs deal will pass. This phase needs to come to an end.

Certainly if the EU wants a deal to pass, that's one way to force it.

I wonder how the vote would go, say on the 26th, knowing that it really was deal or no-deal, end of the road.

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

May, she is an utter disaster.

You know what?

I’m not shy of criticising May’s political skills and leadership style but I’m getting a little bit tired of this.

She’s the only one who’s worked night and day to try and bring a deal about, and hasn’t given up or moved on trying to deliver on the Brexit mandate regardless of the obstacles or difficulties. And she’s had to put up with a remarkable amount of shit (from everyone) to do this when hardly anyone (perhaps no one) has had any better ideas to how to execute it.

She’s earned my respect for her tenacity, determination and sense of duty if nothing else. So, no, I won’t dump it all on her.

I don't blame May for Brexit turning out broadly as I expected it to, with a major political crisis.

AndyJS said:

Mogg is right that we're still leaving on 29th March if nothing else is agreed before then. The vote tonight doesn't change that. And the EU might tell us to bugger off anyway.

AndyJS said:

Mogg is right that we're still leaving on 29th March if nothing else is agreed before then. The vote tonight doesn't change that. And the EU might tell us to bugger off anyway.

ydoethur said:

Gallowgate said:

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

3 line whip

Wow Ministers including 4 Cabinet - Rudd, Perry, Stephen Hammond, Buckland, Clark, Mundell, Ellwood, Gauke, Richard Harrington, Burt, James, Milton - all abstained on the main motion

I confess I cannot think of the last time the Chancellor of the Exchequer defied a three line whip. Possibly Ritchie in 1903?

It's not the COE.

OK, That's bad, but not as bad as I thought.

If he turns on her, she really is finished.

HYUFD said:

Andrew said:

_Anazina_ said:

Can someone summarise what’s going on? I’m trying to watch two football matches and follow Westminster while drinking very average Malbec. I’m bloody confused!

Basically nothing. Parliament saying no to everything, and meanwhile we trundle onwards towards no-deal by default.

No we are now trundling towards Single Market and Customs Union BINO or No Brexit at all if the Deal fails again thanks to tonight's vote

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

Mogg is right that we're still leaving on 29th March if nothing else is agreed before then. The vote tonight doesn't change that. And the EU might tell us to bugger off anyway.

Moronic Mogg and his band of blithering blusterers still think they can filibuster out a No Deal Brexit.

They are fanatical zealots infected with complete idiocy.

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

Mogg is right that we're still leaving on 29th March if nothing else is agreed before then. The vote tonight doesn't change that. And the EU might tell us to bugger off anyway.

Moronic Mogg and his band of blithering blusterers still think they can filibuster out a No Deal Brexit.

They are fanatical zealots infected with complete idiocy.

The penny seems to have dropped for Stephen Clarke now on BBC News.

rpjs said:

If the EU won't grant an extension, then even if MV3 passes, there still needs to be

TrèsDifficile said:

How would the House vote on a motion asking, "We should ignore the result of the EU referendum and revoke Article 50"?

williamglenn said:

kyf_100 said:

kjohnw said:

My vote for tories has gone forever . I will vote brexit party. The tories have betrayed the voters

I certainly won't be voting Conservative next time around. Not even the threat of Corbyn is enough. Doubt I'll be voting Brexit Party but I'll most likely abstain. What's the point in voting any more?

The result of the last national vote to take away May's majority for Brexit seems to have been effective.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

THICK
AS
FLOUR ADDED
PIG SHIT

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105930884945985541

SouthamObserver said:

I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

SouthamObserver said:

I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

Pulpstar said:

TrèsDifficile said:

How would the House vote on a motion asking, "We should ignore the result of the EU referendum and revoke Article 50"?

It wouldn't pass.

algarkirk said:

The sanest course now is for the EU to decline to allow an extension, at which point TMs deal will pass. This phase needs to come to an end.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

stodge said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Casino_Royale said:

You know what?

I’m not shy of criticising May’s political skills and leadership style but I’m getting a little bit tired of this.

She’s the only one who’s worked night and day to try and bring a deal about, and hasn’t given up or moved on trying to deliver on the Brexit mandate regardless of the obstacles or difficulties. And she’s had to put up with a remarkable amount of shit (from everyone) to do this when hardly anyone (perhaps no one) has had any better ideas to how to execute it.

She’s earned my respect for her tenacity, determination and sense of duty if nothing else. So, no, I won’t dump it all on her.

It most certainly is not all TM fault.

I agree with your comments and put this mess at the door of the 498 mps who voted to invoke A50 with a default no deal outcome

I'm no Conservative but I respect her diligence, her integrity and recognise her earnest desire to do the best (as she sees it) for Party and country.

As for "blame", yes, there's plenty to go round but I start with May failing to include and accept voices from outside her Party and Government. Leaving the EU is a national project and required a range of skills, expertise and opinion from across the political spectrum but instead she secreted the whole process within the Conservative Party and spent her spare time making jibes at Labour and talking about "uniting the country".

As for the nonsense about the 498 MPs and A50, the No Deal outcome isn't our default, it's within A50 itself - you can argue the 24 month time limit is absurd and that's valid but the fact of leaving without a Deal or an agreed extension is within the A50 process. We couldn't have invalidated the No Deal option - could we have prepared better?

Hindsight is so easy to be honest.

The irony is that ERG are the real reason brexit is failing - and it is the one thing in this mess that gives me great pleasure

Floater said:

did I just hear sky say MV 3 is on next week?

Black_Rook said:

What we must hope for now is that at least one of the EU leaders (perhaps Macron?) puts their foot down and refuses to grant the A50 extension.

My opinion remains that the best - indeed, only - solution, assuming that the majority in Parliament can't stomach the deal, thinks no deal is catastrophic, and would rather just call the whole thing off, is to revoke, followed by a General Election. However, in any event, the only way that this dire, woeful, incompetent and hopelessly divided Parliament is ever going to settle on any course of action is if it is forced to do so.

If the EU grants an extension then all MPs will do is waste the time in interminable, futile debate that resolves nothing.

Casino_Royale said:

FF43 said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

May, she is an utter disaster.

You know what?

I’m not shy of criticising May’s political skills and leadership style but I’m getting a little bit tired of this.

She’s the only one who’s worked night and day to try and bring a deal about, and hasn’t given up or moved on trying to deliver on the Brexit mandate regardless of the obstacles or difficulties. And she’s had to put up with a remarkable amount of shit (from everyone) to do this when hardly anyone (perhaps no one) has had any better ideas to how to execute it.

She’s earned my respect for her tenacity, determination and sense of duty if nothing else. So, no, I won’t dump it all on her.

I don't blame May for Brexit turning out broadly as I expected it to, with a major political crisis.

Yes, but you’re only a slightly more subtle William Glenn.

May has laid out a practical exit route and a fair deal that I’m more than comfortable with.

The prats in the ERG would have given their right arms for this five years ago.

kle4 said:

SouthamObserver said:

I refuse to believe that the ERG - even the ERG - are going to be so moronically stupid as to turn down a third opportunity to secure Brexit.

It's not stupid if they do not want any Brexit that is not perfect. They don't.

But it may be immaterial. Bercow must be chuckling to himself at the power now in his hands.

IanB2 said:

ERG Baker committing to vote MV3 down in Parliament.

IanB2 said:

ERG Baker committing to vote MV3 down in Parliament.

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

THICK
AS
FLOUR ADDED
PIG SHIT

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1105930884945985541

I still can't see how it will pass - DUP aren't going to change their minds, some ERG hard liners will choose to stick as well. Mogg will vote against as I cannot see how revoke - the only remaining option at that point - will get a majority or how having done so it could be implemented whilst May remains PM

It's going to be no deal. At which point we're fucked in every way possible - economic chaos combined with the simultaneous tearing asunder of both main parties

Even revoke is more likely than No Deal tonight

RoyalBlue said:

Screw them all.

An Islamic Republic would be better than our current ‘system of government’.

dyedwoolie said:

And somebody deal with jew baiter Corbyn. He's a bigger embarrassment than May

bigjohnowls said:

Laura Kuenssberg
‏

If Cabinet ministers are allowed to ignore the govt's own instructions then discipline is just gone - to sound like an old bore, if you don't have discipline you don't really have a government for very long.

GE 2019