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Comments
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They have two reasons to agree to an extension:brokenwheel said:
Did you not hear Juncker? There will be no more renegotiation, so there is no basis for the EU to accept an extension.edmundintokyo said:
Parliament has a vote on whether they want an extension instead of No Deal. They do. TMay dutifully shuffles off to Brussels and asks the 27 if they will agree to this rather than inconveniencing their citizens and businesses with No Deal, and potentially further bollocksing up an already fragile recovery. They do.Chris said:I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
At the end of the extension period, repeat.
At some point in the future, possibly after a new election, something may shift enough to make the deal, a referendum or revocation an option. But until that happens, just keep extending.
1. They'd be hit badly by the chaos of us crashing out with no deal. At the very least they'd want some more time to put in place further mitigation measures (they haven't done much yet). Anyway, disaster deferred is always preferable for a politician than disaster next week.
2. Extension for a 'political event' (GE or referendum) could well lead to us not leaving after all, which is by far their preferred outcome.0 -
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May really has to go today. She has done her best. It wasn't very good but she undoubtedly tried hard. But its time. It really is.0
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Sterling was lower yesterday morning. I agree the risk of no deal is real, but essentially nothing has changed on that score.Chris said:Sterling now seems to be in freefall. Which very much suggests that the markets aren't thinking that No Deal is off the table.
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Exactly. Simples whilst everyone else over thinking it.MarqueeMark said:
Take what's on offer. But May and all her chosen ones get cleaned out.dots said:
Where do you get the obvious from? Never heard of poker?Sean_F said:
It's obvious that many do not want a Brexit that is not their perfect Brexit.dots said:
I’m getting the numbers from your last line. Ignore all the newsfeeds. This is nothing to do with legal matters it’s a political vote tonight. Boles and gove and now Big G has summed it up well. Take the brexit offered to you today or see it watered down and put to second referendum. ERG haven’t had to make their mind up in such a way till today. It’s absolutely obvious how will they vote in forced choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Where are you getting these figures from. Cox advice looks very honest but not sure it helps. However, ERG facing the almost certain loss of brexit if this falls may add to their thoughtsdots said:
Pointless wondering about half a dozen independents for this vote it’s not even close. With DUP, Davis, Mogg, now boris too, as well Tory remainers and soft brexiteers and 30mor 40 labour all voting with May sporting index Ayes looks about a hundred short.GIN1138 said:
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?DavidL said:
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?Richard_Nabavi said:Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
Strange, but that's human nature.
Tonight you see how to win at poker.
Anyone who thinks may Deal is dead, who think you can count the political cards, by 8 tonight you will be very surprised.
Then go in HARD on the trade negotiations. And be prepared to walk away from it.
Politics is putting the pressure on (convincing people you mean it) and at the crunch getting best deal for yourself (shamelessly).
Take a look at the pound and betting odds flying around, there’s money to be made here this afternoon.0 -
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A GE is unlikely to solve anything.
Were I the EU I would say that the only basis I'd agree to an extension is for a vote on the Deal, as agreed as of last night, or Remain.0 -
Juncker said that consistently from November til last night too. Yet he still went ahead with last nights negotiations.brokenwheel said:
Did you not hear Juncker? There will be no more renegotiation, so there is no basis for the EU to accept an extension. There is no majority for a 2nd ref, and there is no majority for revocation.edmundintokyo said:
Parliament has a vote on whether they want an extension instead of No Deal. They do. TMay dutifully shuffles off to Brussels and asks the 27 if they will agree to this rather than inconveniencing their citizens and businesses with No Deal, and potentially further bollocksing up an already fragile recovery. They do.Chris said:I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
At the end of the extension period, repeat.
At some point in the future, possibly after a new election, something may shift enough to make the deal, a referendum or revocation an option. But until that happens, just keep extending.
If May goes then her successor will negotiate.0 -
A renegotiation isn't the only basis for the EU to accept an extension. There's also good, old-fashioned crisis avoidance.brokenwheel said:
Did you not hear Juncker? There will be no more renegotiation, so there is no basis for the EU to accept an extension. There is no majority for a 2nd ref, and there is no majority for revocation.edmundintokyo said:
Parliament has a vote on whether they want an extension instead of No Deal. They do. TMay dutifully shuffles off to Brussels and asks the 27 if they will agree to this rather than inconveniencing their citizens and businesses with No Deal, and potentially further bollocksing up an already fragile recovery. They do.Chris said:I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
At the end of the extension period, repeat.
At some point in the future, possibly after a new election, something may shift enough to make the deal, a referendum or revocation an option. But until that happens, just keep extending.0 -
So the trajectory for the next few days is roughly as follows?:
Parliament: we don’t like this deal
EU: this is the final deal
Parliament: we don’t want to leave without a deal but we don’t like this deal
EU: this is the final deal
Parliament: please can you give us some more time so we can renegotiate the deal?
EU: erm.......0 -
But the “Remain” question has been asked and answered.Cyclefree said:A GE is unlikely to solve anything.
Were I the EU I would say that the only basis I'd agree to an extension is for a vote on the Deal, as agreed as of last night, or Remain.
Surely it’s “Deal” vs “No Deal” that is on the table?0 -
You'll be taking the 6s about the deal passing then? Best of luck.dots said:
Exactly. Simples whilst everyone else over thinking it.MarqueeMark said:
Take what's on offer. But May and all her chosen ones get cleaned out.dots said:
Where do you get the obvious from? Never heard of poker?Sean_F said:
It's obvious that many do not want a Brexit that is not their perfect Brexit.dots said:
I’m getting the numbers from your last line. Ignore all the newsfeeds. This is nothing to do with legal matters it’s a political vote tonight. Boles and gove and now Big G has summed it up well. Take the brexit offered to you today or see it watered down and put to second referendum. ERG haven’t had to make their mind up in such a way till today. It’s absolutely obvious how will they vote in forced choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Where are you getting these figures from. Cox advice looks very honest but not sure it helps. However, ERG facing the almost certain loss of brexit if this falls may add to their thoughtsdots said:
Pointless wondering about half a dozen independents for this vote it’s not even close. With DUP, Davis, Mogg, now boris too, as well Tory remainers and soft brexiteers and 30mor 40 labour all voting with May sporting index Ayes looks about a hundred short.GIN1138 said:
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?DavidL said:
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?Richard_Nabavi said:Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?
Strange, but that's human nature.
Tonight you see how to win at poker.
Anyone who thinks may Deal is dead, who think you can count the political cards, by 8 tonight you will be very surprised.
Then go in HARD on the trade negotiations. And be prepared to walk away from it.
Politics is putting the pressure on (convincing people you mean it) and at the crunch getting best deal for yourself (shamelessly).
Take a look at the pound and betting odds flying around, there’s money to be made here this afternoon.0 -
I'm not sure any referendum could be supported but deal or no deal is the only possible option. I think parliament should still be able to come together for a deal.CarlottaVance said:
But the “Remain” question has been asked and answered.Cyclefree said:A GE is unlikely to solve anything.
Were I the EU I would say that the only basis I'd agree to an extension is for a vote on the Deal, as agreed as of last night, or Remain.
Surely it’s “Deal” vs “No Deal” that is on the table?0 -
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2 maybe, but regarding 1, if the deal is heavily defeated today it must be clear there's no prospect of the present House of Commons agreeing to anything they're willing to offer.Richard_Nabavi said:
They have two reasons to agree to an extension:brokenwheel said:
Did you not hear Juncker? There will be no more renegotiation, so there is no basis for the EU to accept an extension.edmundintokyo said:
Parliament has a vote on whether they want an extension instead of No Deal. They do. TMay dutifully shuffles off to Brussels and asks the 27 if they will agree to this rather than inconveniencing their citizens and businesses with No Deal, and potentially further bollocksing up an already fragile recovery. They do.Chris said:I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
At the end of the extension period, repeat.
At some point in the future, possibly after a new election, something may shift enough to make the deal, a referendum or revocation an option. But until that happens, just keep extending.
1. They'd be hit badly by the chaos of us crashing out with no deal. At the very least they'd want some more time to put in place further mitigation measures (they haven't done much yet). Anyway, disaster deferred is always preferable for a politician than disaster next week.
2. Extension for a 'political event' (GE or referendum) could well lead to us not leaving after all, which is by far their preferred outcome.
I don't think they'll refuse a seven-week extension if we ask for one - or maybe even a three-month extensions - but I very much doubt there will be anything more after that.0 -
She should have held the meaningful vote in December and resigned after losing then. But I think this is the end of the road and she can properly resign now. She has done her duty and if she has been found wanting, so be it. There is nothing more she can do for the country.AndyJS said:
I don't think she will resign. It looks like she wants to carry on whatever happens.DavidL said:May really has to go today. She has done her best. It wasn't very good but she undoubtedly tried hard. But its time. It really is.
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That ought to be the question but it wouldn't be.CarlottaVance said:
But the “Remain” question has been asked and answered.Cyclefree said:A GE is unlikely to solve anything.
Were I the EU I would say that the only basis I'd agree to an extension is for a vote on the Deal, as agreed as of last night, or Remain.
Surely it’s “Deal” vs “No Deal” that is on the table?0 -
Chance of that is approximately zero. Why the hell would the EU agree to that? Or the HoC?CarlottaVance said:
But the “Remain” question has been asked and answered.Cyclefree said:A GE is unlikely to solve anything.
Were I the EU I would say that the only basis I'd agree to an extension is for a vote on the Deal, as agreed as of last night, or Remain.
Surely it’s “Deal” vs “No Deal” that is on the table?0 -
Replace that last one with:numbertwelve said:So the trajectory for the next few days is roughly as follows?:
Parliament: we don’t like this deal
EU: this is the final deal
Parliament: we don’t want to leave without a deal but we don’t like this deal
EU: this is the final deal
Parliament: please can you give us some more time so we can renegotiate the deal?
EU: erm.......
Parliament: please can you give us some more time so we can work out a way not to fuck everyone over for no apparent reason?
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Not up to the EUtottenhamWC said:
Chance of that is approximately zero. Why the hell would the EU agree to that? Or the HoC?CarlottaVance said:
But the “Remain” question has been asked and answered.Cyclefree said:A GE is unlikely to solve anything.
Were I the EU I would say that the only basis I'd agree to an extension is for a vote on the Deal, as agreed as of last night, or Remain.
Surely it’s “Deal” vs “No Deal” that is on the table?0 -
Matt Hancock the Comical Ali of May's government?CarlottaVance said:Up to a point, Lord Copper.....
https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1105434884766605312?s=20 0 -
One comment on the election front - there is a very big opening for a stop brexit coalition from which one of the main parties dies.
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ironic that a leaver (Cox) has scuppered a remainer (May) in trying to 'leave'.
Sums up the past few years well.0 -
Yes it is - they won’t grant an extension for that.Brom said:
Not up to the EUtottenhamWC said:
Chance of that is approximately zero. Why the hell would the EU agree to that? Or the HoC?CarlottaVance said:
But the “Remain” question has been asked and answered.Cyclefree said:A GE is unlikely to solve anything.
Were I the EU I would say that the only basis I'd agree to an extension is for a vote on the Deal, as agreed as of last night, or Remain.
Surely it’s “Deal” vs “No Deal” that is on the table?0 -
12.5 now. Edit: 13.5dixiedean said:You'll be taking the 6s about the deal passing then? Best of luck.
No chance. It's back to where we were a week ago: getting the vote close enough to keep MV3 alive, 2mths extension, bully/bribe/bore the final few MPs into changing their votes.
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There is a difference between negotiating, which will happen, and actually conceding anything though.Philip_Thompson said:
Juncker said that consistently from November til last night too. Yet he still went ahead with last nights negotiations.brokenwheel said:
Did you not hear Juncker? There will be no more renegotiation, so there is no basis for the EU to accept an extension. There is no majority for a 2nd ref, and there is no majority for revocation.edmundintokyo said:
Parliament has a vote on whether they want an extension instead of No Deal. They do. TMay dutifully shuffles off to Brussels and asks the 27 if they will agree to this rather than inconveniencing their citizens and businesses with No Deal, and potentially further bollocksing up an already fragile recovery. They do.Chris said:I don't understand the view that it's a choice between the New Deal and No Brexit.
No Deal remains the legal default.
What do people see as the "no Brexit" route away from that? A referendum? Revocation? Given the situation within the Tory party, how would either be achieved?
At the end of the extension period, repeat.
At some point in the future, possibly after a new election, something may shift enough to make the deal, a referendum or revocation an option. But until that happens, just keep extending.
If May goes then her successor will negotiate.
As we have just seen.
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Plus the HoC will never support it either.tottenhamWC said:
Yes it is - they won’t grant an extension for that.Brom said:
Not up to the EUtottenhamWC said:
Chance of that is approximately zero. Why the hell would the EU agree to that? Or the HoC?CarlottaVance said:
But the “Remain” question has been asked and answered.Cyclefree said:A GE is unlikely to solve anything.
Were I the EU I would say that the only basis I'd agree to an extension is for a vote on the Deal, as agreed as of last night, or Remain.
Surely it’s “Deal” vs “No Deal” that is on the table?0 -
Don't take dots too seriously, his (?) thing seems to be making extremely confident predictions then making exactly the opposite prediction, equally confidently, days or hours later. I think it's a form of trolling.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Where are you getting these figures from. Cox advice looks very honest but not sure it helps. However, ERG facing the almost certain loss of brexit if this falls may add to their thoughtsdots said:
Pointless wondering about half a dozen independents for this vote it’s not even close. With DUP, Davis, Mogg, now boris too, as well Tory remainers and soft brexiteers and 30mor 40 labour all voting with May sporting index Ayes looks about a hundred short.GIN1138 said:
She can vote I think but not sure what happens if the vote is beyond her curfew?DavidL said:
Is Onasanya suspended or is she able to vote on her tag?Richard_Nabavi said:Sporting Index have a spread bet market on the number of Ayes, currently at 268-278. In the last vote the result was 202.
My gut reaction is that they've pitched it about right, but this could be very volatile depending on what Cox says and (most importantly) on what the DUP decide.
Wouldn't it be hilarious if the police rocked up and arrested her for breaking her parole conditions?0 -
I would so buy that book. In an otherwise sorry process the second "twat" provided a rare source of unbridled joy as well as perfectly summarising the whole shit show.El_Capitano said:
That will be for Volume Two. Volume One will be called THE SECOND "TWAT".SeanT said:
When they come to write the Curious History of the Brexit That Never Happened, a good left field title would beEl_Capitano said:Tim Shipman has deleted the codpiece tweet.
TIM SHIPMAN HAS DELETED THE CODPIECE TWEET0 -
As of yesterday Sterling was at its highest level against the Euro for over a year. The fall today, so far, is a very small blip in that trend but we shall see.OblitusSumMe said:
Sterling was lower yesterday morning. I agree the risk of no deal is real, but essentially nothing has changed on that score.Chris said:Sterling now seems to be in freefall. Which very much suggests that the markets aren't thinking that No Deal is off the table.
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Parliamentary votes cannot make it "end". Suppose Corbyn wins a vote: then what? A general election which might or might not deliver a majority government but which still doesn't change the position that either party in charge will find it immensely difficult to agree any WA with the EU that their own MPs can sign up to.Philip_Thompson said:Corbyn should table another No Confidence vote tonight. If Tory MPs weren't so worried about the party whip if they were honest enough would back it. This needs to end.
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The question, as ever, is what did May think was going to happen?
I extend the same question to anyone who, last night or this morning, thought the odds of the deal passing tonight had materially improved.0 -
Yes, that’s possible. No Deal is also a way I could win (horribly). But I think the Remainers now feel they have the wind in their sails (and they do, thanks to TMay’s cluelessness). They will go for total victory now. A new referendum, which I think they will win.williamglenn said:
I think the biggest risk to me is a short extension and a cross-party soft Brexit stitch up.SeanT said:Just realised I am now more likely than not to lose £1000 to Mr williamglenn, of this selfsame parish.
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Obviously, I don't know the ins and outs of it, but if Cox says it's still dubious, then surely it's dead in the water?0
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I know someone who works with her (v closely). He says that the main thing she is focused on (beyond anything else - her overriding priority) is continuing as PM. This is to his frustration by the way.SeanT said:0 -
Haven't TIG said they want to run in every seat? That already means they've responded to the Lib Dems' friendliness by spitting in their faces. Not a good sign for the prospect of a coalitionmr-claypole said:One comment on the election front - there is a very big opening for a stop brexit coalition from which one of the main parties dies.
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Take it you’re referring to Danny Dyer. Did he say TWAT twice?!OnlyLivingBoy said:
I would so buy that book. In an otherwise sorry process the second "twat" provided a rare source of unbridled joy as well as perfectly summarising the whole shit show.El_Capitano said:
That will be for Volume Two. Volume One will be called THE SECOND "TWAT".SeanT said:
When they come to write the Curious History of the Brexit That Never Happened, a good left field title would beEl_Capitano said:Tim Shipman has deleted the codpiece tweet.
TIM SHIPMAN HAS DELETED THE CODPIECE TWEET0 -
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If so they'll be able to enjoy remaining in the EU, while a Corbyn government takes away all their wealth and property!SeanT said:
Yes, that’s possible. No Deal is also a way I could win (horribly). But I think the Remainers now feel they have the wind in their sails (and they do, thanks to TMay’s cluelessness). They will go for total victory now. A new referendum, which I think they will win.williamglenn said:
I think the biggest risk to me is a short extension and a cross-party soft Brexit stitch up.SeanT said:Just realised I am now more likely than not to lose £1000 to Mr williamglenn, of this selfsame parish.
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Unnamed, but I'd trust Lord Ashcroft on this:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/11054386439912611840 -
Yes. The second one was a glorious extemporised expectoration. It's absolutely worth re-watching just for that.SeanT said:
Take it you’re referring to Danny Dyer. Did he say TWAT twice?!OnlyLivingBoy said:
I would so buy that book. In an otherwise sorry process the second "twat" provided a rare source of unbridled joy as well as perfectly summarising the whole shit show.El_Capitano said:
That will be for Volume Two. Volume One will be called THE SECOND "TWAT".SeanT said:
When they come to write the Curious History of the Brexit That Never Happened, a good left field title would beEl_Capitano said:Tim Shipman has deleted the codpiece tweet.
TIM SHIPMAN HAS DELETED THE CODPIECE TWEET
(Also, of course, for the sight of Ed Balls corpsing in the background.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-W77154J0-w0 -
I cashed out for a paltry green of 16 quid on the deal passing today.... but is there another twist ahead still?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105438576651788288
https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/11054390864945766420 -
Yep this is why leaving with May's deal is probably the best option. Corbyn benefits massively from us remaining or no deal.GIN1138 said:
If so they'll be able to enjoy remaining in the EU, while a Corbyn government takes away all their wealth and property!SeanT said:
Yes, that’s possible. No Deal is also a way I could win (horribly). But I think the Remainers now feel they have the wind in their sails (and they do, thanks to TMay’s cluelessness). They will go for total victory now. A new referendum, which I think they will win.williamglenn said:
I think the biggest risk to me is a short extension and a cross-party soft Brexit stitch up.SeanT said:Just realised I am now more likely than not to lose £1000 to Mr williamglenn, of this selfsame parish.
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Well said.DavidL said:0 -
To be fair, if we Remain, I think we should join the Euro. Stop fannying about.TheScreamingEagles said:
Most likely.BigIan said:
Euro and all?TheScreamingEagles said:No Deal it is then.
We’ll have rejoined by 2027.
Short term pain for long term gain.
Rather take the Deal but that looks dead now.0 -
Remain plus Corbyn as PM would truly be the worst of all worlds.Pulpstar said:
Yep this is why leaving with May's deal is probably the best option. Corbyn benefits massively from us remaining or no deal.GIN1138 said:
If so they'll be able to enjoy remaining in the EU, while a Corbyn government takes away all their wealth and property!SeanT said:
Yes, that’s possible. No Deal is also a way I could win (horribly). But I think the Remainers now feel they have the wind in their sails (and they do, thanks to TMay’s cluelessness). They will go for total victory now. A new referendum, which I think they will win.williamglenn said:
I think the biggest risk to me is a short extension and a cross-party soft Brexit stitch up.SeanT said:Just realised I am now more likely than not to lose £1000 to Mr williamglenn, of this selfsame parish.
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???? Most of the clock was run down trying to get a deal from the EU they were never going to give. I seem to remember certain commenters on this very site shared her belief that getting rid of the backstop would be possible.Philip_Thompson said:
It gives an opportunity for a reset and fresh ideas. Whether it be preparing for No Deal or a Referendum or a renegotiation. May has nothing, hers is an empty cupboard. She has wasted our.2 year window of negotiations sticking obstinately to a plan she knew Parliament would oppose with no Plan B. She is a failure. Worst PM since Chamberlain, Suez was not handled this badly.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And how does that end itPhilip_Thompson said:Corbyn should table another No Confidence vote tonight. If Tory MPs weren't so worried about the party whip if they were honest enough would back it. This needs to end.
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In an uncertain world of absolutists seeking absolutes a move from very unlikely to extremely unlikely was never going to be enough....twistedfirestopper3 said:Obviously, I don't know the ins and outs of it, but if Cox says it's still dubious, then surely it's dead in the water?
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Yes, that’s very good. Oddly cheering. THE SECOND TWAT it is.El_Capitano said:
Yes. The second one was a glorious extemporised expectoration. It's absolutely worth re-watching just for that.SeanT said:
Take it you’re referring to Danny Dyer. Did he say TWAT twice?!OnlyLivingBoy said:
I would so buy that book. In an otherwise sorry process the second "twat" provided a rare source of unbridled joy as well as perfectly summarising the whole shit show.El_Capitano said:
That will be for Volume Two. Volume One will be called THE SECOND "TWAT".SeanT said:
When they come to write the Curious History of the Brexit That Never Happened, a good left field title would beEl_Capitano said:Tim Shipman has deleted the codpiece tweet.
TIM SHIPMAN HAS DELETED THE CODPIECE TWEET
(Also, of course, for the sight of Ed Balls corpsing in the background.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-W77154J0-w0 -
Geoffrey Cox is positioned very well as a Brexiter man of integrity who argued in favour of the deal.
That might be rather handy for him in any coming leadership election...0 -
There is zero appetite for the euro in the UK and it's not required whilst London is the global financial capital. Can't see it happening in my lifetime, probably more likely to adopt the US dollar if anything.TheValiant said:
To be fair, if we Remain, I think we should join the Euro. Stop fannying about.TheScreamingEagles said:
Most likely.BigIan said:
Euro and all?TheScreamingEagles said:No Deal it is then.
We’ll have rejoined by 2027.
Short term pain for long term gain.
Rather take the Deal but that looks dead now.0 -
Politicians have awful taste in scarfs. First Chuka and now Vince...0
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Seems like the best bet for Leavers. If Brexit doesn't happen the Conservatives will be screwed.AlastairMeeks said:
Unnamed, but I'd trust Lord Ashcroft on this:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/11054386439912611840 -
A successful no confidence vote before the end of the month on its own would dramatically increase the likelihood of a no deal Brexit on the 29th.david_herdson said:
Parliamentary votes cannot make it "end". Suppose Corbyn wins a vote: then what? A general election which might or might not deliver a majority government but which still doesn't change the position that either party in charge will find it immensely difficult to agree any WA with the EU that their own MPs can sign up to.Philip_Thompson said:Corbyn should table another No Confidence vote tonight. If Tory MPs weren't so worried about the party whip if they were honest enough would back it. This needs to end.
The ensuing general election would be entertaining in a watching-a-nation-dismantle-itself kind of a way.0 -
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As a pragmatic leaver, who accepts we won't get a perfect Brexit, I really despair. How can May have stood up on the podium with Juncker and not made sure that Cox would sign this off first?
If the deal goes down in flames, the only way I can see forward is to get an extension and then May stands down. A quick turnaround Con leadership election and then maybe a GE in May.0 -
+ 5, then.AlastairMeeks said:Unnamed, but I'd trust Lord Ashcroft on this:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/11054386439912611840 -
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Wow, that was not what everyone was expecting from Cox this morning, but fair play to him for playing a straight bat. I can’t see how the deal goes through tonight now, and the PM’s political career probably dies with it.0
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I'm on him at 50/1 next PM. A moderate Brexiter is arguably what the Tory party needs as leader if May goes soon.AlastairMeeks said:Geoffrey Cox is positioned very well as a Brexiter man of integrity who argued in favour of the deal.
That might be rather handy for him in any coming leadership election...0 -
No deal plus Corbyn is worse....Sean_F said:
Remain plus Corbyn as PM would truly be the worst of all worlds.Pulpstar said:
Yep this is why leaving with May's deal is probably the best option. Corbyn benefits massively from us remaining or no deal.GIN1138 said:
If so they'll be able to enjoy remaining in the EU, while a Corbyn government takes away all their wealth and property!SeanT said:
Yes, that’s possible. No Deal is also a way I could win (horribly). But I think the Remainers now feel they have the wind in their sails (and they do, thanks to TMay’s cluelessness). They will go for total victory now. A new referendum, which I think they will win.williamglenn said:
I think the biggest risk to me is a short extension and a cross-party soft Brexit stitch up.SeanT said:Just realised I am now more likely than not to lose £1000 to Mr williamglenn, of this selfsame parish.
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And I was vocally one of them. And it would have been possible if the alternative was No Deal. May refusing to plan for that and Parliament in recent weeks prevented that.Stereotomy said:
???? Most of the clock was run down trying to get a deal from the EU they were never going to give. I seem to remember certain commenters on this very site shared her belief that getting rid of the backstop would be possible.Philip_Thompson said:
It gives an opportunity for a reset and fresh ideas. Whether it be preparing for No Deal or a Referendum or a renegotiation. May has nothing, hers is an empty cupboard. She has wasted our.2 year window of negotiations sticking obstinately to a plan she knew Parliament would oppose with no Plan B. She is a failure. Worst PM since Chamberlain, Suez was not handled this badly.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And how does that end itPhilip_Thompson said:Corbyn should table another No Confidence vote tonight. If Tory MPs weren't so worried about the party whip if they were honest enough would back it. This needs to end.
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BBC BREAKING: DUP likely to vote against0
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BREAKING: Brexit0
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Assuming I live long enough to see it, the outcome of the truth and reconciliation inquiry in Brexit is going to be epic...0
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I think that is correct. My view is that of the 40% or so who support the Conservatives, far more care about achieving Brexit, than care about achieving the ideal Brexit.Xtrain said:Seems like the best bet for Leavers. If Brexit doesn't happen the Conservatives will be screwed.
AlastairMeeks said:Unnamed, but I'd trust Lord Ashcroft on this:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/11054386439912611840 -
No, leaving with no deal combined with Corbyn would be the worst. Not only would we have the cumulative economic hit of the two, we'd also have lost the protections built in to EU membership. Membership of the EU constrains his ability to waste money on state aid, makes it impossible for him to impose exchange controls, makes it impossible to confiscate assets without full compensation, and constrains his ability to impose draconian taxes because so many people would have an easy option of legging it to the continent.Sean_F said:
Remain plus Corbyn as PM would truly be the worst of all worlds.Pulpstar said:
Yep this is why leaving with May's deal is probably the best option. Corbyn benefits massively from us remaining or no deal.GIN1138 said:
If so they'll be able to enjoy remaining in the EU, while a Corbyn government takes away all their wealth and property!SeanT said:
Yes, that’s possible. No Deal is also a way I could win (horribly). But I think the Remainers now feel they have the wind in their sails (and they do, thanks to TMay’s cluelessness). They will go for total victory now. A new referendum, which I think they will win.williamglenn said:
I think the biggest risk to me is a short extension and a cross-party soft Brexit stitch up.SeanT said:Just realised I am now more likely than not to lose £1000 to Mr williamglenn, of this selfsame parish.
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That "Leaver MP" could well have voted for the deal last time too.AlastairMeeks said:Unnamed, but I'd trust Lord Ashcroft on this:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/11054386439912611840 -
This, from the Guardian liveblog, strikes me as verging on clinically insane:
"[JRM] told Barclay:
"This has been advertised as a unilateral ability. It’s not unilateral."
"Barclay responded with this:
"What is unilateral is what we are asserting, is our interpretation. And the fact this is not disputed by the EU becomes common ground that goes before the arbitrators. So this is not saying this is a unilateral exit in the regard you’re referring to. What it is saying is the ability to trigger our interpretation is what the unilateral declaration is referring to."0 -
That sounds like a reasonable series of events.GarethoftheVale2 said:As a pragmatic leaver, who accepts we won't get a perfect Brexit, I really despair. How can May have stood up on the podium with Juncker and not made sure that Cox would sign this off first?
If the deal goes down in flames, the only way I can see forward is to get an extension and then May stands down. A quick turnaround Con leadership election and then maybe a GE in May.
Mrs May should have realised the deal was a dodo back in January, I can’t see any progress now with her remaining in place.0 -
The Commons is still going to vote against No Deal tomorrow I assume?0
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Look, I studied under Foucault and Derrida and none of this makes much sense to me, so it's not unreasonable to suppose that it doesn't make any sense to the average Tory backbencher.0
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When this Deal fails, which it will, then the Cabinet has to summon up the cullions and just tell TMay to go. If she refuses, drag her out by her stupid kitten heels. FFS. She is now an obstacle to all this, and her absurd red lines at the beginning are the reason for all this.
Jesus. What a waste of time, energy and money.0 -
Interesting that nobody was saying this last week. Instead people were debating about whether it'd be MV4 or MV5 which eventually passed the deal. May seems to have managed to made things significantly worse for herself.Sandpit said:
That sounds like a reasonable series of events.GarethoftheVale2 said:As a pragmatic leaver, who accepts we won't get a perfect Brexit, I really despair. How can May have stood up on the podium with Juncker and not made sure that Cox would sign this off first?
If the deal goes down in flames, the only way I can see forward is to get an extension and then May stands down. A quick turnaround Con leadership election and then maybe a GE in May.
Mrs May should have realised the deal was a dodo back in January, I can’t see any progress now with her remaining in place.0 -
It's crazy. What was she thinking? She trips off to the EU, has a presser with them telling us how she's got it sorted but without really getting the nod from her AG! Is she deluded or incompetent?Sandpit said:Wow, that was not what everyone was expecting from Cox this morning, but fair play to him for playing a straight bat. I can’t see how the deal goes through tonight now, and the PM’s political career probably dies with it.
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Huge admiration for Cox and genuine respect.0
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Just read that final Cox paragraph.
May is finished. It is over.
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+1 the stuff of nightmarestottenhamWC said:
No deal plus Corbyn is worse....Sean_F said:
Remain plus Corbyn as PM would truly be the worst of all worlds.Pulpstar said:
Yep this is why leaving with May's deal is probably the best option. Corbyn benefits massively from us remaining or no deal.GIN1138 said:
If so they'll be able to enjoy remaining in the EU, while a Corbyn government takes away all their wealth and property!SeanT said:
Yes, that’s possible. No Deal is also a way I could win (horribly). But I think the Remainers now feel they have the wind in their sails (and they do, thanks to TMay’s cluelessness). They will go for total victory now. A new referendum, which I think they will win.williamglenn said:
I think the biggest risk to me is a short extension and a cross-party soft Brexit stitch up.SeanT said:Just realised I am now more likely than not to lose £1000 to Mr williamglenn, of this selfsame parish.
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il faut imaginer theresa heureuseFenman said:Look, I studied under Foucault and Derrida and none of this makes much sense to me, so it's not unreasonable to suppose that it doesn't make any sense to the average Tory backbencher.
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And what do you think they should then do? Appoint Boris as PM? Hammond? What about the party membership?SeanT said:When this Deal fails, which it will, then the Cabinet has to summon up the cullions and just tell TMay to go. If she refuses, drag her out by her stupid kitten heels. FFS. She is now an obstacle to all this, and her absurd red lines at the beginning are the reason for all this.
Jesus. What a waste of time, energy and money.
Whilst I'm sure most MPs and party members would be delighted to see the back of her as PM, her departure would not be a solution to the immediate problem.0 -
It has been over for months, probably since Jun 2017.rottenborough said:Just read that final Cox paragraph.
May is finished. It is over.0 -
The red lines that Tories cheered? That got glowing headlines in the Daily Mail? The red lines that you voted for?SeanT said:When this Deal fails, which it will, then the Cabinet has to summon up the cullions and just tell TMay to go. If she refuses, drag her out by her stupid kitten heels. FFS. She is now an obstacle to all this, and her absurd red lines at the beginning are the reason for all this.
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And, taking a longer view, positions him nicely for future leader depending on how things play out.SouthamObserver said:Huge admiration for Cox and genuine respect.
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I don't think the DUP switching would be sufficient to bring down the government, now that there are so many independents.Sandpit said:
If DUP vote against then a few dozen Tory MPs will follow their lead.IanB2 said:BBC BREAKING: DUP likely to vote against
A deal that passed with the DUP opposed would have them tabling a vote of no confidence tomorrow.0 -
posted earlier...El_Capitano said:This, from the Guardian liveblog, strikes me as verging on clinically insane:
"[JRM] told Barclay:
"This has been advertised as a unilateral ability. It’s not unilateral."
"Barclay responded with this:
"What is unilateral is what we are asserting, is our interpretation. And the fact this is not disputed by the EU becomes common ground that goes before the arbitrators. So this is not saying this is a unilateral exit in the regard you’re referring to. What it is saying is the ability to trigger our interpretation is what the unilateral declaration is referring to."
https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/11053922616706007050 -
YouGov Live Poll:
Tonight the House of Commons will vote on whether to accept or reject the proposed Brexit deal. Do you think MPs should...
Accept the deal 35%
Reject the deal 45%
Don’t know 20%
https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/cd731b29-44ab-11e9-9de1-71e6579ebea90 -
Spread now 237-2470
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Probably another of her games of chicken. He tells her it's a lame duck, she "calls his bluff" and expects him to write up a favourable interpretation.twistedfirestopper3 said:
It's crazy. What was she thinking? She trips off to the EU, has a presser with them telling us how she's got it sorted but without really getting the nod from her AG! Is she deluded or incompetent?Sandpit said:Wow, that was not what everyone was expecting from Cox this morning, but fair play to him for playing a straight bat. I can’t see how the deal goes through tonight now, and the PM’s political career probably dies with it.
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