politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Are we on the point of breakthrough?
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Oh I do like Kier Starmer.0
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Starmer isn't sounding on top of his game tonight. Trying to be contrary for the sake of it0
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I've not said this before...but May is finito...and then we are placed in chaos...SouthamObserver said:
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Fair counter-points are also available.viewcode said:
Fair pointsMyBurningEars said:
On the other hand, some of his arguments for Britain to stay in Europe - that the European project is faltering and that shades of nationalism are rising throughout the continent that look very nasty indeed - could just as well be pitched as arguments to get out.viewcode said:
"...I’m struck, as the British parliament moves towards the endgame on Brexit, with the number of times Australia, Canada, New Zealand and India have been advanced by the Brexiteers in the public debate as magical alternatives to Britain’s current trade and investment relationship with the European Union. This is the nuttiest of the many nutty arguments that have emerged from the Land of Hope and Glory set now masquerading as the authentic standard-bearers of British patriotism. It’s utter bollocks..."TheScreamingEagles said:
In fact those are his main political arguments for staying in, though it isn't clear to me whether he thinks that Britain remaining in the EU will somehow make Hungarian or Finnish or Italian nationalism less vicious, or just fingers-crossed that it might just keep the tide outvoted in Brussels for a little bit longer if things get really hairy.
His main economic argument, that there are 400+ million relatively wealthy people living next-door so you ought to be doing a lot of your trade with them, is pretty reasonable, though rather skirts over the fact that in globally proportionate terms they are a market of diminishing significance, but it isn't clear to me why that should involve subsuming one's country into political union with them. After all, there are 1300 million increasingly wealthy people living in a country in Oz's neck of the wood, in a market that really has been racing up the economic rankings and which is now responsible for a lot of their trade, but surely even Mr Rudd would find it premature if Australia gave up on governing itself and settled for sending a few delegates to the National People's Congress instead.
But other than the fact Rudd was prepared to use some twitterably robust language (for British politics anyway, might be Ozzie weaksauce), it wasn't an especially interesting read- he doesn't seem to have produced a particularly strong argument, nor an original one. Handy to be reminded that Establishment Thinking is available in an Aussie accent I suppose. There are far superior grounds for Britain staying in the EU than that our antipodean cousins may some day thank us for sticking about to vote against the Hungarian Tide.0 -
Spare a thought for Ms Soubry’s bartender this evening ...0
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It doesn’t sound like nothing has changed.SouthamObserver said:
Starmer is responding to what he wants to hear.
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What's changed?oxfordsimon said:Starmer isn't sounding on top of his game tonight. Trying to be contrary for the sake of it
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I think that's the PM's bit later on. Kier Starmer having a difficult gig replying to Lidington on the basis of two docs neither have seen. Making a good opening gag but now flapping a bit, pretending not to know that variations to deals don't need conformed copies annexed.Chris said:
But not the unilateral statement? Isn't that the crucial part?Drutt said:Commons is PACKED. Lidington reporting TM will say more later but have secured legally binding changes. Joint interpretative doc and joint statement.
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It may be that nothing substantive has changed, I'll be honest I can no longer keep track of it all and people will take totally opposite lines on whether anything has changed anyway so who the hell knows. The only thing they can certainly change is their attitude. As silly as it is, if they believe something has changed, or are willing to act like it has, then something really has changed.0
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Yes, I noticed that last time I was in tbe City. They were full of information on criminals and the route of hourly beat patrols you had to stick to in case you went missing and the Chief Inspector could trace your movements on patrol. We had no radios or communications and in the middle of the night it was quite scary with one hand wrapped round your truncheon, that was very large and comfortingSweeney74 said:
A type 42 Tardis?!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just noticed your avatar. I used to work in one in the sixties when I was in Edinburgh City PoliceSweeney74 said:I agree with this.
If enough progress has been made tonight (a massive if), then perhaps we can finally draw a line under the whole sorry saga.Philip_Thompson said:
Your view is probably going to be more popular but I will completely disagree.Marco1 said:If , (a big if) , there is serious progress tonight then the one thing I believe a lot of people will agree upon is the horrendous mess that our MPs, May, the EU and Government have made of the last two wasted Years of ridiculous diplomacy. It has clearly indicated that democracy only works if you are an Elite and have Elite views.
If (and it is a big if) there is serious progress tonight then belatedly MPs, May, the EU and the Government will have done their job. Its not pretty but it if there's progress and it is done then it is done at last.
Furthermore in December and January MPs had serious concerns over the backstop. If those have been addressed then that is serious progress.
It hasn't been pretty but in the words of Otto Von Bismarck “If you like laws and sausages, you should never watch either one being made.”
I like the way several old police boxes in Edinburgh are now being used as pop up stalls and coffee shops
I am getting my coat0 -
.... and from the other side of the pond: sounds an awful lot like Trump will pardon Manafort.0
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B
FWIW, no sensible English lawyer would concede that and would bite somebody else’s hand off if they offered it. There’s an intellectually interesting discussion to be had around conflict of law but on any rational basis it’s an offer which should be taken.SouthamObserver said:This bloke is the best informed Brexit commentator there is ...
https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1105225621062541312?s=210 -
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That position changes at least weeklyTheWhiteRabbit said:
... except Labour's position since last time this came to the Commonsbigjohnowls said:Starmer nothing has changed
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The withdrawal agreement is unchanged since November.0
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All very well for armchair commentators to opine about something we've not yet seen, but what's the value in people defending or rejecting in the Commons at this point? Ok, the decision to back or not would always be political anyway, but they could at least wait until they was a smidgeon less obvious.0
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Eccleston's, if my eyes do not deceive me.Sweeney74 said:
A type 42 Tardis?!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just noticed your avatar. I used to work in one in the sixties when I was in Edinburgh City PoliceSweeney74 said:I agree with this.
If enough progress has been made tonight (a massive if), then perhaps we can finally draw a line under the whole sorry saga.Philip_Thompson said:
Your view is probably going to be more popular but I will completely disagree.Marco1 said:If , (a big if) , there is serious progress tonight then the one thing I believe a lot of people will agree upon is the horrendous mess that our MPs, May, the EU and Government have made of the last two wasted Years of ridiculous diplomacy. It has clearly indicated that democracy only works if you are an Elite and have Elite views.
If (and it is a big if) there is serious progress tonight then belatedly MPs, May, the EU and the Government will have done their job. Its not pretty but it if there's progress and it is done then it is done at last.
Furthermore in December and January MPs had serious concerns over the backstop. If those have been addressed then that is serious progress.
It hasn't been pretty but in the words of Otto Von Bismarck “If you like laws and sausages, you should never watch either one being made.”0 -
Shouldn't she be renamed the Sowbitch in imitation of the Pigdog ?TGOHF said:Spare a thought for Ms Soubry’s bartender this evening ...
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And so we see why it will probably still fail - talk like that, which the EU will also no doubt push, gives the ERG and Lab rebels all the ammunition they need to keep on refusing it.Scott_P said:0 -
Betting post.
A reminder, further to the conversation some of us had last month.
You can bet on the UK and EU reaching an *agreement* by March 29th (without needing to leave, i.e. if a short extension was required to get the required legislation through) by backing the withdrawal agreement to be approved by the council of the EU and UK parliament before 30/03/19 on Betfair Sportsbook.
price is currently 9/4, which in my view is a safer bet than the 4/1 offered on BF exchange that we will actually leave before the 30th.0 -
If anyone is being bounced or blinking it’s clearly Dublin.kle4 said:
I'm amazed we've not had one already. But give it til morning, they don't want to appear totally unreasonable.houndtang said:
How long before we get a DUP statement saying it's completely unacceptable?kle4 said:
Well, duh, of course the government is trying to bounce the ERG and DUP into a deal. What planet have they been living on for the last 6 months?TheScreamingEagles said:
Despite all the bluster from Dublin in recent weeks, if they allow the British unilateral declaration as part of the arrangement that is a hell of a climb down by Dublin.
Personally I felt this impasse wasn’t UK v EU but EU standing beside Dublin, but EU would move if Dublin took the lead. It looks like this moment is where Dublin blinks. If they allow UK a legal unilateral declaration on backstop, DUP will signal support for May tomorrow and most ERG will follow that lead. DUP + at least 80 ERG + at least 30 Labour who don’t want this to go to further Ref, Mays deal comfortably wins tomorrow doesn’t it?
The time it takes for the Irish Cabinet to eat pizza and Guinness for supper and Brexit is going to happen!
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You have a good eye.viewcode said:
Eccleston's, if my eyes do not deceive me.Sweeney74 said:
A type 42 Tardis?!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just noticed your avatar. I used to work in one in the sixties when I was in Edinburgh City PoliceSweeney74 said:I agree with this.
If enough progress has been made tonight (a massive if), then perhaps we can finally draw a line under the whole sorry saga.Philip_Thompson said:
Your view is probably going to be more popular but I will completely disagree.Marco1 said:If , (a big if) , there is serious progress tonight then the one thing I believe a lot of people will agree upon is the horrendous mess that our MPs, May, the EU and Government have made of the last two wasted Years of ridiculous diplomacy. It has clearly indicated that democracy only works if you are an Elite and have Elite views.
If (and it is a big if) there is serious progress tonight then belatedly MPs, May, the EU and the Government will have done their job. Its not pretty but it if there's progress and it is done then it is done at last.
Furthermore in December and January MPs had serious concerns over the backstop. If those have been addressed then that is serious progress.
It hasn't been pretty but in the words of Otto Von Bismarck “If you like laws and sausages, you should never watch either one being made.”0 -
I believe the ERG and DUP will say No, and Labour will whip against0
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What in the bloody hell is the point of this theatre if Cox is not yet on board, and it is such fine margins that he is agonising over the call? If the margins are that fine his view won't persuade the ERG legal eagles.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/11052314015767879680 -
Pretty impressive .FF43 said:
Here he is being interviewed talking about Xi Jinping's politicsdixiedean said:
Blushes and buffs nails. As indeed did Paddy Ashdown.FF43 said:
Talking of languages, Kevin Rudd speaks genuinely fluent Chinese. A rare skill amongst English speakers.TheScreamingEagles said:
https://youtu.be/fjOgglWfJhs0 -
On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11052263990891520070 -
Its posturing.kle4 said:What in the bloody hell is the point of this theatre if Cox is not yet on board, and it is such fine margins that he is agonising over the call? If the margins are that fine his view won't persuade the ERG legal eagles.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1105231401576787968
Its ALWAYS posturing.0 -
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May's statement seems to be 25 minutes late, though.Drutt said:
I think that's the PM's bit later on. Kier Starmer having a difficult gig replying to Lidington on the basis of two docs neither have seen. Making a good opening gag but now flapping a bit, pretending not to know that variations to deals don't need conformed copies annexed.Chris said:
But not the unilateral statement? Isn't that the crucial part?Drutt said:Commons is PACKED. Lidington reporting TM will say more later but have secured legally binding changes. Joint interpretative doc and joint statement.
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Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote0
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Testify. I’ve seen it four times.kle4 said:On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11052263990891520070 -
The actual legal advice is utterly irrelevant. There's no point discussing it in contract/treaty terms. The question is entirely whether MPs want to believe it enough to pass the deal.
Personally I am doubtful, but we're talking mind reading here.0 -
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ExiledInScotland said:
I believe the ERG and DUP will say No, and Labour will whip against
I do believe that May is going to get well and truly whipped tomorrow.....
God knows what the hell is going to happen thereafter....0 -
Best endeavours. Look at the Blackpool Airport case (and others). “Legally pointless” is so wrong as to be embarrassing.Scott_P said:0 -
Oh christ no, they've had plenty of time, they can do all that tomorrow with time to spare - what else will there be to discuss but what is new?
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/11052322057590702080 -
No changes at all to WA
AG agonising
FFS0 -
He really is a bonafide knob jockeyTheScreamingEagles said:
Testify. I’ve seen it four times.kle4 said:On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105226399089152007
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What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?HYUFD said:Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
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I thought it was great. My favourite Marvel film. Higher, further, faster baby.TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify. I’ve seen it four times.kle4 said:On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11052263990891520070 -
Question, if Cox does not think he can change his advice, then wouldn't that be calling Lidington and by extension May a liar for saying legally binding changes had been secured?0
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LV waiting for instructions from the EU, by the sounds of it.Scott_P said:0 -
I saw The Last Jedi four times - but it's still a bad film!TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify. I’ve seen it four times.kle4 said:On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11052263990891520070 -
TM and Junckers have not made their statementbigjohnowls said:No changes at all to WA
AG agonising
FFS
Why so many go of on one before the actual statements and documentation I have no idea
Let us see and then we do not end up with egg on our face0 -
CoughcoughWinterSoldiercoughcoughGallowgate said:
I thought it was great. My favourite Marvel film...TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify. I’ve seen it four times.kle4 said:On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105226399089152007
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Wait and seekle4 said:Question, if Cox does not think he can change his advice, then wouldn't that be calling Lidington and by extension May a liar for saying legally binding changes had been secured?
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Very good but not as great as Civil War.viewcode said:
CoughcoughWinterSoldiercoughcoughGallowgate said:
I thought it was great. My favourite Marvel film...TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify. I’ve seen it four times.kle4 said:On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11052263990891520070 -
Ragnarok is my 2nd favourite.viewcode said:
CoughcoughWinterSoldiercoughcoughGallowgate said:
I thought it was great. My favourite Marvel film...TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify. I’ve seen it four times.kle4 said:On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105226399089152007
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Doesn't sound like the headbangers are going for it.
They prefer crisis0 -
It was fun, told an origin story with more variety than most do, had a good twist and Larsson and Jackson were a great double team, with Larsson very likable as a character. Yeah, it was no masterpiece, it was a marvel movie and part of their regular formula, but I really like the formula and it mixed it up enough. Loved it.Gallowgate said:
I thought it was great. My favourite Marvel film. Higher, further, faster baby.TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify. I’ve seen it four times.kle4 said:On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11052263990891520070 -
That's a decent call, I fear. And an interesting comparison.matt said:
Australian politicians would struggle with idea of President for Life (as opposed to Pm for the next 15 minutes). Although, FWIW, I think (mimicing Chinese friends) that the relevant lives, for Xi, will be Taiwanese, as one county, one system is becomes real to stave off domestic issues.
The voting public of Taiwan seem very torn between going their own way (and those who want this most keenly tend to envision going forth unto the world as stridently Taiwanese) versus settling for some (ultimately political) acceptance of their own Chinahood. Rather reminiscent of Brexit Britain, or Norway's ground-out-to-a-multi-decadal-draw of a debate - though taking place before the institutions have been put in place rather than after, and as far as I can tell (I'm drawing on anecdatally limited sample size here) it's the youngsters who seem most keen on actively rejecting political union.
Have a good night all. Don't stay up too late with the excitement - think there could be a few more rounds of this all to come!0 -
Bet she won't take questions tonight.Big_G_NorthWales said:
TM and Junckers have not made their statementbigjohnowls said:No changes at all to WA
AG agonising
FFS
Why so many go of on one before the actual statements and documentation I have no idea
Let us see and then we do not end up with egg on our face
She should answer are there any changes at all to WA
Is Cox agonising if so why.
She won't.
Nothing has changed pin respect of WA IMO.0 -
Why did you see it so many times if you thought it was bad?!Sunil_Prasannan said:
I saw The Last Jedi four times - but it's still a bad film!TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify. I’ve seen it four times.kle4 said:On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11052263990891520070 -
Good review.kle4 said:
It was fun, told an origin story with more variety than most do, had a good twist and Larsson and Jackson were a great double team, with Larsson very likable as a character. Yeah, it was no masterpiece, it was a marvel movie and part of their regular formula, but I really like the formula and it mixed it up enough. Loved it.Gallowgate said:
I thought it was great. My favourite Marvel film. Higher, further, faster baby.TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify. I’ve seen it four times.kle4 said:On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105226399089152007
On the feminism element, and I say this from a male perspective, that I thought they got it spot on in a way that Wonder Woman didn't.0 -
If DUP accept this climb down by Dublin at least 30 Labour MPs will defy WIP to support the deal.ExiledInScotland said:I believe the ERG and DUP will say No, and Labour will whip against
The longer DUP go without comment the more likely they will vote with May0 -
Starmer saying they will oppose the deal even without seeing it
Pathetic. Even Steve Baker is cautious0 -
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.0
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Sky reporting only that DUP have said they will study the detail.dots said:
If DUP accept this climb down by Dublin at least 30 Labour MPs will defy WIP to support the deal.ExiledInScotland said:I believe the ERG and DUP will say No, and Labour will whip against
The longer DUP go without comment the more likely they will vote with May0 -
Howard The DuckTheScreamingEagles said:
Very good but not as great as Civil War.viewcode said:
CoughcoughWinterSoldiercoughcoughGallowgate said:
I thought it was great. My favourite Marvel film...TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify. I’ve seen it four times.kle4 said:On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11052263990891520070 -
Th Tory headbangers are not the issue. It's the massed ranks of the Tory Brexiteers and Labour rebels who will decide it, and for the former what the DUP think.Scott_P said:Doesn't sound like the headbangers are going for it.
They prefer crisis
Thank goodness the DUP are known for their careful consideration of weighty issues and political restraint.0 -
Crucially though not Nigel Dodds and the DUP who said they will analyse it very carefully, even Paterson said has some good news in it. Redwood is not happy but Redwood was one of the 20 who voted against extension and would not back the Deal even without the backstop because of financial concernsScott_P said:Doesn't sound like the headbangers are going for it.
They prefer crisis0 -
But only after the wording of the unilateral declaration has been agreed between May and Juncker?SouthamObserver said:0 -
The threat of BINO or No Brexit at allsolarflare said:
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?HYUFD said:Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
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Only if he’s wrong.Richard_Nabavi said:Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
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It's worked so well this far.HYUFD said:
The threat of BINO or No Brexit at allsolarflare said:
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?HYUFD said:Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
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That's politics for you. Disappointing all the same.Big_G_NorthWales said:Starmer saying they will oppose the deal even without seeing it
Pathetic. Even Steve Baker is cautious0 -
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Labour's objections to the deal always went way beyond the backstop.Big_G_NorthWales said:Starmer saying they will oppose the deal even without seeing it
Pathetic. Even Steve Baker is cautious
Given that Mrs May is not going to announce she and Juncker have amended the deal to include a Customs Union, Starmer knows Labour will continue to oppose it.0 -
Labour were never going to support anything May comes up with. Simples.Big_G_NorthWales said:Starmer saying they will oppose the deal even without seeing it
Pathetic. Even Steve Baker is cautious
Question is how many defy the whip.0 -
Has Kate Hoey defected?
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But the backstop is a de facto customs unionBenpointer said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Labour's objections to the deal always went way beyond the backstop.Big_G_NorthWales said:Starmer saying they will oppose the deal even without seeing it
Pathetic. Even Steve Baker is cautious
Given that Mrs May is not going to announce she and Juncker have amended the deal to include a Customs Union, Starmer knows Labour will continue to oppose it.
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If the House rejects the Deal tomorrow it will almost certainly also reject No Deal and vote for extension of Article 50, hence the threat becomes realsolarflare said:
It's worked so well this far.HYUFD said:
The threat of BINO or No Brexit at allsolarflare said:
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?HYUFD said:Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
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Sign this or get a hard border.SouthamObserver said:
Not much of a sign off....
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Not at all. A person of integrity - let alone a lawyer - doesn't trash a proposed deal without reading it. He's a disgrace.SouthamObserver said:
Only if he’s wrong.Richard_Nabavi said:Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
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Kate Hoey of the DUP has not defected, no.williamglenn said:Has Kate Hoey defected?
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Anyone tonight trying push line nothing has changed need to explain to us exactly why Dublin Government are agonising over nothing.Scott_P said:
Those pushing nothing has changed are second ref remainiacs with defeat written all over their face, are they not?0 -
This all sounds like a boyfriend buying a present for his girlfriend to stop her leaving him. It's all a bit obvious and desperate, and a bit of a distraction from the bigger issues. Do I believe that there are a majority who now see the deal as fixed? No chance.
Fundamentally, is there now a majority desperate enough to do a deal? I can't see it myself, but unlike the first debate where we had 5 days over 2 months to see how MPs stood, it's all in a day now. The first few who say they are against will set the tone. Marc Francois and Andrew Bridgen to speak first tomorrow?0 -
There have always been Labour/Tory [depending upon who is the opposition] MPs on that part of the bencheswilliamglenn said:Has Kate Hoey defected?
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He's read it. It's been published for months. The WA is not changing.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all. A person of integrity - let alone a lawyer - doesn't trash a proposed deal without reading it. He's a disgrace.SouthamObserver said:
Only if he’s wrong.Richard_Nabavi said:Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
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Joint press conference starting0
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Since neither he nor the government minister commending it has seen the "agreement" (not that it matters, see my note below), what do you expect him to say? "Gosh! You've nailed it! Well done guys."Richard_Nabavi said:Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
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I thought Civil War only makes sense if you have seen the other movies, but Winter Soldier is more self-contained and has better fight scenesTheScreamingEagles said:
Very good but not as great as Civil War.viewcode said:
CoughcoughWinterSoldiercoughcoughGallowgate said:
I thought it was great. My favourite Marvel film...TheScreamingEagles said:
Testify. I’ve seen it four times.kle4 said:On other matters, Dan Hodges really is a fool
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11052263990891520070 -
If you're wondering whether it's Brexit or Corbynism that's more damaging, bear in mind that in Venezuela there's been limited electricity (no wifi, no data, no life support in hospitals) for five days and the schools have closed because of it and so have most businesses. And there's looting, and the last five years' GDP growth figures are -4, -6, -16, -16, -16, and prices double every three weeks.
And we're gossiping about how good Captain Marvel is.
Anyway, Juncker and TM on telly now.0 -
I cannot see it getting the votes needed, but I suppose that we will know for sure in 24 hours.SouthamObserver said:This sounds about right:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1105236153534427147?s=210 -
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.SouthamObserver said:This sounds about right:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1105236153534427147?s=210 -
Junckers seems quite upset to be fair0
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I expect him to say 'we look forward to seeing the details, and then we will give our view'. How difficult is that for a lawyer? Or indeed for an reasonable person. Hell, even the DUP have managed that.FF43 said:
Since neither he nor the government minister commending it has seen the "agreement" (not that it matters, see my note below), what do you expect him to say? "Gosh! You've nailed it! Well done guys."Richard_Nabavi said:Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
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He has not seen it, so he has to summise - which is exactly how he framed what he said. Look it up in Hansard when it’s published.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all. A person of integrity - let alone a lawyer - doesn't trash a proposed deal without reading it. He's a disgrace.SouthamObserver said:
Only if he’s wrong.Richard_Nabavi said:Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
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May has been hinging her hopes on that group as being very big for months. Now we'll see if those hopes were fruitless at least. Same with the occasionally rumoured 'dozens' of Labour votes which are needed even if 50+ Tories change their minds.SouthamObserver said:This sounds about right:
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1105236153534427147?s=21
It's something (or at least presented as something). That at least means people have to reconfirm their positions in light of purportedly new info, which is progress in one sense at least
It should already be real to them. When I'm standing in the path of an oncoming train it is still real when it is 500m away, not just 50m away. They know no Brexit or BINO could happen if they vote down the deal, they always haveHYUFD said:
If the House rejects the Deal tomorrow it will almost certainly also reject No Deal and vote for extension of Article 50, hence the threat becomes realsolarflare said:
It's worked so well this far.HYUFD said:
The threat of BINO or No Brexit at allsolarflare said:
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?HYUFD said:Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
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Very well said!Drutt said:If you're wondering whether it's Brexit or Corbynism that's more damaging, bear in mind that in Venezuela there's been limited electricity (no wifi, no data, no life support in hospitals) for five days and the schools have closed because of it and so have most businesses. And there's looting, and the last five years' GDP growth figures are -4, -6, -16, -16, -16, and prices double every three weeks.
And we're gossiping about how good Captain Marvel is.
Anyway, Juncker and TM on telly now.0 -
Hold firm ERG and vote this awful deal down.0
