On the other hand, some of his arguments for Britain to stay in Europe - that the European project is faltering and that shades of nationalism are rising throughout the continent that look very nasty indeed - could just as well be pitched as arguments to get out.
In fact those are his main political arguments for staying in, though it isn't clear to me whether he thinks that Britain remaining in the EU will somehow make Hungarian or Finnish or Italian nationalism less vicious, or just fingers-crossed that it might just keep the tide outvoted in Brussels for a little bit longer if things get really hairy.
His main economic argument, that there are 400+ million relatively wealthy people living next-door so you ought to be doing a lot of your trade with them, is pretty reasonable, though rather skirts over the fact that in globally proportionate terms they are a market of diminishing significance, but it isn't clear to me why that should involve subsuming one's country into political union with them. After all, there are 1300 million increasingly wealthy people living in a country in Oz's neck of the wood, in a market that really has been racing up the economic rankings and which is now responsible for a lot of their trade, but surely even Mr Rudd would find it premature if Australia gave up on governing itself and settled for sending a few delegates to the National People's Congress instead.
Fair points
Fair counter-points are also available.
But other than the fact Rudd was prepared to use some twitterably robust language (for British politics anyway, might be Ozzie weaksauce), it wasn't an especially interesting read- he doesn't seem to have produced a particularly strong argument, nor an original one. Handy to be reminded that Establishment Thinking is available in an Aussie accent I suppose. There are far superior grounds for Britain staying in the EU than that our antipodean cousins may some day thank us for sticking about to vote against the Hungarian Tide.
Commons is PACKED. Lidington reporting TM will say more later but have secured legally binding changes. Joint interpretative doc and joint statement.
But not the unilateral statement? Isn't that the crucial part?
I think that's the PM's bit later on. Kier Starmer having a difficult gig replying to Lidington on the basis of two docs neither have seen. Making a good opening gag but now flapping a bit, pretending not to know that variations to deals don't need conformed copies annexed.
It may be that nothing substantive has changed, I'll be honest I can no longer keep track of it all and people will take totally opposite lines on whether anything has changed anyway so who the hell knows. The only thing they can certainly change is their attitude. As silly as it is, if they believe something has changed, or are willing to act like it has, then something really has changed.
If , (a big if) , there is serious progress tonight then the one thing I believe a lot of people will agree upon is the horrendous mess that our MPs, May, the EU and Government have made of the last two wasted Years of ridiculous diplomacy. It has clearly indicated that democracy only works if you are an Elite and have Elite views.
Your view is probably going to be more popular but I will completely disagree.
If (and it is a big if) there is serious progress tonight then belatedly MPs, May, the EU and the Government will have done their job. Its not pretty but it if there's progress and it is done then it is done at last.
Furthermore in December and January MPs had serious concerns over the backstop. If those have been addressed then that is serious progress.
It hasn't been pretty but in the words of Otto Von Bismarck “If you like laws and sausages, you should never watch either one being made.”
Just noticed your avatar. I used to work in one in the sixties when I was in Edinburgh City Police
A type 42 Tardis?!
I like the way several old police boxes in Edinburgh are now being used as pop up stalls and coffee shops
Yes, I noticed that last time I was in tbe City. They were full of information on criminals and the route of hourly beat patrols you had to stick to in case you went missing and the Chief Inspector could trace your movements on patrol. We had no radios or communications and in the middle of the night it was quite scary with one hand wrapped round your truncheon, that was very large and comforting
FWIW, no sensible English lawyer would concede that and would bite somebody else’s hand off if they offered it. There’s an intellectually interesting discussion to be had around conflict of law but on any rational basis it’s an offer which should be taken.
All very well for armchair commentators to opine about something we've not yet seen, but what's the value in people defending or rejecting in the Commons at this point? Ok, the decision to back or not would always be political anyway, but they could at least wait until they was a smidgeon less obvious.
If , (a big if) , there is serious progress tonight then the one thing I believe a lot of people will agree upon is the horrendous mess that our MPs, May, the EU and Government have made of the last two wasted Years of ridiculous diplomacy. It has clearly indicated that democracy only works if you are an Elite and have Elite views.
Your view is probably going to be more popular but I will completely disagree.
If (and it is a big if) there is serious progress tonight then belatedly MPs, May, the EU and the Government will have done their job. Its not pretty but it if there's progress and it is done then it is done at last.
Furthermore in December and January MPs had serious concerns over the backstop. If those have been addressed then that is serious progress.
It hasn't been pretty but in the words of Otto Von Bismarck “If you like laws and sausages, you should never watch either one being made.”
Just noticed your avatar. I used to work in one in the sixties when I was in Edinburgh City Police
And so we see why it will probably still fail - talk like that, which the EU will also no doubt push, gives the ERG and Lab rebels all the ammunition they need to keep on refusing it.
A reminder, further to the conversation some of us had last month.
You can bet on the UK and EU reaching an *agreement* by March 29th (without needing to leave, i.e. if a short extension was required to get the required legislation through) by backing the withdrawal agreement to be approved by the council of the EU and UK parliament before 30/03/19 on Betfair Sportsbook.
price is currently 9/4, which in my view is a safer bet than the 4/1 offered on BF exchange that we will actually leave before the 30th.
Well, duh, of course the government is trying to bounce the ERG and DUP into a deal. What planet have they been living on for the last 6 months?
How long before we get a DUP statement saying it's completely unacceptable?
I'm amazed we've not had one already. But give it til morning, they don't want to appear totally unreasonable.
If anyone is being bounced or blinking it’s clearly Dublin.
Despite all the bluster from Dublin in recent weeks, if they allow the British unilateral declaration as part of the arrangement that is a hell of a climb down by Dublin.
Personally I felt this impasse wasn’t UK v EU but EU standing beside Dublin, but EU would move if Dublin took the lead. It looks like this moment is where Dublin blinks. If they allow UK a legal unilateral declaration on backstop, DUP will signal support for May tomorrow and most ERG will follow that lead. DUP + at least 80 ERG + at least 30 Labour who don’t want this to go to further Ref, Mays deal comfortably wins tomorrow doesn’t it?
The time it takes for the Irish Cabinet to eat pizza and Guinness for supper and Brexit is going to happen!
If , (a big if) , there is serious progress tonight then the one thing I believe a lot of people will agree upon is the horrendous mess that our MPs, May, the EU and Government have made of the last two wasted Years of ridiculous diplomacy. It has clearly indicated that democracy only works if you are an Elite and have Elite views.
Your view is probably going to be more popular but I will completely disagree.
If (and it is a big if) there is serious progress tonight then belatedly MPs, May, the EU and the Government will have done their job. Its not pretty but it if there's progress and it is done then it is done at last.
Furthermore in December and January MPs had serious concerns over the backstop. If those have been addressed then that is serious progress.
It hasn't been pretty but in the words of Otto Von Bismarck “If you like laws and sausages, you should never watch either one being made.”
Just noticed your avatar. I used to work in one in the sixties when I was in Edinburgh City Police
What in the bloody hell is the point of this theatre if Cox is not yet on board, and it is such fine margins that he is agonising over the call? If the margins are that fine his view won't persuade the ERG legal eagles. https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1105231401576787968
And so we see why it will probably still fail - talk like that, which the EU will also no doubt push, gives the ERG and Lab rebels all the ammunition they need to keep on refusing it.
It does seem as if the remain camp are getting a bit agitated
What in the bloody hell is the point of this theatre if Cox is not yet on board, and it is such fine margins that he is agonising over the call? If the margins are that fine his view won't persuade the ERG legal eagles. https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1105231401576787968
Commons is PACKED. Lidington reporting TM will say more later but have secured legally binding changes. Joint interpretative doc and joint statement.
But not the unilateral statement? Isn't that the crucial part?
I think that's the PM's bit later on. Kier Starmer having a difficult gig replying to Lidington on the basis of two docs neither have seen. Making a good opening gag but now flapping a bit, pretending not to know that variations to deals don't need conformed copies annexed.
May's statement seems to be 25 minutes late, though.
Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
The actual legal advice is utterly irrelevant. There's no point discussing it in contract/treaty terms. The question is entirely whether MPs want to believe it enough to pass the deal.
Personally I am doubtful, but we're talking mind reading here.
Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?
Question, if Cox does not think he can change his advice, then wouldn't that be calling Lidington and by extension May a liar for saying legally binding changes had been secured?
Question, if Cox does not think he can change his advice, then wouldn't that be calling Lidington and by extension May a liar for saying legally binding changes had been secured?
I thought it was great. My favourite Marvel film. Higher, further, faster baby.
It was fun, told an origin story with more variety than most do, had a good twist and Larsson and Jackson were a great double team, with Larsson very likable as a character. Yeah, it was no masterpiece, it was a marvel movie and part of their regular formula, but I really like the formula and it mixed it up enough. Loved it.
Australian politicians would struggle with idea of President for Life (as opposed to Pm for the next 15 minutes). Although, FWIW, I think (mimicing Chinese friends) that the relevant lives, for Xi, will be Taiwanese, as one county, one system is becomes real to stave off domestic issues.
That's a decent call, I fear. And an interesting comparison.
The voting public of Taiwan seem very torn between going their own way (and those who want this most keenly tend to envision going forth unto the world as stridently Taiwanese) versus settling for some (ultimately political) acceptance of their own Chinahood. Rather reminiscent of Brexit Britain, or Norway's ground-out-to-a-multi-decadal-draw of a debate - though taking place before the institutions have been put in place rather than after, and as far as I can tell (I'm drawing on anecdatally limited sample size here) it's the youngsters who seem most keen on actively rejecting political union.
Have a good night all. Don't stay up too late with the excitement - think there could be a few more rounds of this all to come!
I thought it was great. My favourite Marvel film. Higher, further, faster baby.
It was fun, told an origin story with more variety than most do, had a good twist and Larsson and Jackson were a great double team, with Larsson very likable as a character. Yeah, it was no masterpiece, it was a marvel movie and part of their regular formula, but I really like the formula and it mixed it up enough. Loved it.
Good review.
On the feminism element, and I say this from a male perspective, that I thought they got it spot on in a way that Wonder Woman didn't.
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Doesn't sound like the headbangers are going for it.
They prefer crisis
Th Tory headbangers are not the issue. It's the massed ranks of the Tory Brexiteers and Labour rebels who will decide it, and for the former what the DUP think.
Thank goodness the DUP are known for their careful consideration of weighty issues and political restraint.
Doesn't sound like the headbangers are going for it.
They prefer crisis
Crucially though not Nigel Dodds and the DUP who said they will analyse it very carefully, even Paterson said has some good news in it. Redwood is not happy but Redwood was one of the 20 who voted against extension and would not back the Deal even without the backstop because of financial concerns
Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?
Starmer saying they will oppose the deal even without seeing it
Pathetic. Even Steve Baker is cautious
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Labour's objections to the deal always went way beyond the backstop.
Given that Mrs May is not going to announce she and Juncker have amended the deal to include a Customs Union, Starmer knows Labour will continue to oppose it.
Starmer saying they will oppose the deal even without seeing it
Pathetic. Even Steve Baker is cautious
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Labour's objections to the deal always went way beyond the backstop.
Given that Mrs May is not going to announce she and Juncker have amended the deal to include a Customs Union, Starmer knows Labour will continue to oppose it.
Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?
The threat of BINO or No Brexit at all
It's worked so well this far.
If the House rejects the Deal tomorrow it will almost certainly also reject No Deal and vote for extension of Article 50, hence the threat becomes real
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Only if he’s wrong.
Not at all. A person of integrity - let alone a lawyer - doesn't trash a proposed deal without reading it. He's a disgrace.
This all sounds like a boyfriend buying a present for his girlfriend to stop her leaving him. It's all a bit obvious and desperate, and a bit of a distraction from the bigger issues. Do I believe that there are a majority who now see the deal as fixed? No chance.
Fundamentally, is there now a majority desperate enough to do a deal? I can't see it myself, but unlike the first debate where we had 5 days over 2 months to see how MPs stood, it's all in a day now. The first few who say they are against will set the tone. Marc Francois and Andrew Bridgen to speak first tomorrow?
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Only if he’s wrong.
Not at all. A person of integrity - let alone a lawyer - doesn't trash a proposed deal without reading it. He's a disgrace.
He's read it. It's been published for months. The WA is not changing.
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Since neither he nor the government minister commending it has seen the "agreement" (not that it matters, see my note below), what do you expect him to say? "Gosh! You've nailed it! Well done guys."
If you're wondering whether it's Brexit or Corbynism that's more damaging, bear in mind that in Venezuela there's been limited electricity (no wifi, no data, no life support in hospitals) for five days and the schools have closed because of it and so have most businesses. And there's looting, and the last five years' GDP growth figures are -4, -6, -16, -16, -16, and prices double every three weeks.
And we're gossiping about how good Captain Marvel is.
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Since neither he nor the government minister commending it has seen the "agreement" (not that it matters, see my note below), what do you expect him to say? "Gosh! You've nailed it! Well done guys."
I expect him to say 'we look forward to seeing the details, and then we will give our view'. How difficult is that for a lawyer? Or indeed for an reasonable person. Hell, even the DUP have managed that.
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Only if he’s wrong.
Not at all. A person of integrity - let alone a lawyer - doesn't trash a proposed deal without reading it. He's a disgrace.
He has not seen it, so he has to summise - which is exactly how he framed what he said. Look it up in Hansard when it’s published.
May has been hinging her hopes on that group as being very big for months. Now we'll see if those hopes were fruitless at least. Same with the occasionally rumoured 'dozens' of Labour votes which are needed even if 50+ Tories change their minds.
It's something (or at least presented as something). That at least means people have to reconfirm their positions in light of purportedly new info, which is progress in one sense at least
Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?
The threat of BINO or No Brexit at all
It's worked so well this far.
If the House rejects the Deal tomorrow it will almost certainly also reject No Deal and vote for extension of Article 50, hence the threat becomes real
It should already be real to them. When I'm standing in the path of an oncoming train it is still real when it is 500m away, not just 50m away. They know no Brexit or BINO could happen if they vote down the deal, they always have
If you're wondering whether it's Brexit or Corbynism that's more damaging, bear in mind that in Venezuela there's been limited electricity (no wifi, no data, no life support in hospitals) for five days and the schools have closed because of it and so have most businesses. And there's looting, and the last five years' GDP growth figures are -4, -6, -16, -16, -16, and prices double every three weeks.
And we're gossiping about how good Captain Marvel is.
Comments
But other than the fact Rudd was prepared to use some twitterably robust language (for British politics anyway, might be Ozzie weaksauce), it wasn't an especially interesting read- he doesn't seem to have produced a particularly strong argument, nor an original one. Handy to be reminded that Establishment Thinking is available in an Aussie accent I suppose. There are far superior grounds for Britain staying in the EU than that our antipodean cousins may some day thank us for sticking about to vote against the Hungarian Tide.
Starmer is responding to what he wants to hear.
I am getting my coat
A reminder, further to the conversation some of us had last month.
You can bet on the UK and EU reaching an *agreement* by March 29th (without needing to leave, i.e. if a short extension was required to get the required legislation through) by backing the withdrawal agreement to be approved by the council of the EU and UK parliament before 30/03/19 on Betfair Sportsbook.
price is currently 9/4, which in my view is a safer bet than the 4/1 offered on BF exchange that we will actually leave before the 30th.
Despite all the bluster from Dublin in recent weeks, if they allow the British unilateral declaration as part of the arrangement that is a hell of a climb down by Dublin.
Personally I felt this impasse wasn’t UK v EU but EU standing beside Dublin, but EU would move if Dublin took the lead. It looks like this moment is where Dublin blinks. If they allow UK a legal unilateral declaration on backstop, DUP will signal support for May tomorrow and most ERG will follow that lead. DUP + at least 80 ERG + at least 30 Labour who don’t want this to go to further Ref, Mays deal comfortably wins tomorrow doesn’t it?
The time it takes for the Irish Cabinet to eat pizza and Guinness for supper and Brexit is going to happen!
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1105231401576787968
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1105226399089152007
Its ALWAYS posturing.
Personally I am doubtful, but we're talking mind reading here.
I do believe that May is going to get well and truly whipped tomorrow.....
God knows what the hell is going to happen thereafter....
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1105232205759070208
AG agonising
FFS
Why so many go of on one before the actual statements and documentation I have no idea
Let us see and then we do not end up with egg on our face
They prefer crisis
The voting public of Taiwan seem very torn between going their own way (and those who want this most keenly tend to envision going forth unto the world as stridently Taiwanese) versus settling for some (ultimately political) acceptance of their own Chinahood. Rather reminiscent of Brexit Britain, or Norway's ground-out-to-a-multi-decadal-draw of a debate - though taking place before the institutions have been put in place rather than after, and as far as I can tell (I'm drawing on anecdatally limited sample size here) it's the youngsters who seem most keen on actively rejecting political union.
Have a good night all. Don't stay up too late with the excitement - think there could be a few more rounds of this all to come!
She should answer are there any changes at all to WA
Is Cox agonising if so why.
She won't.
Nothing has changed pin respect of WA IMO.
On the feminism element, and I say this from a male perspective, that I thought they got it spot on in a way that Wonder Woman didn't.
The longer DUP go without comment the more likely they will vote with May
Pathetic. Even Steve Baker is cautious
Thank goodness the DUP are known for their careful consideration of weighty issues and political restraint.
Given that Mrs May is not going to announce she and Juncker have amended the deal to include a Customs Union, Starmer knows Labour will continue to oppose it.
Question is how many defy the whip.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1105236153534427147?s=21
Not much of a sign off....
Those pushing nothing has changed are second ref remainiacs with defeat written all over their face, are they not?
Fundamentally, is there now a majority desperate enough to do a deal? I can't see it myself, but unlike the first debate where we had 5 days over 2 months to see how MPs stood, it's all in a day now. The first few who say they are against will set the tone. Marc Francois and Andrew Bridgen to speak first tomorrow?
And we're gossiping about how good Captain Marvel is.
Anyway, Juncker and TM on telly now.
It's something (or at least presented as something). That at least means people have to reconfirm their positions in light of purportedly new info, which is progress in one sense at least It should already be real to them. When I'm standing in the path of an oncoming train it is still real when it is 500m away, not just 50m away. They know no Brexit or BINO could happen if they vote down the deal, they always have