This is just a face-saving fudge. There was clearly always the possibility of abrogating on the basis of the other party not acting in good faith. Today's announcement and the unilateral declaration make it no easier to take that step, should the governement of the day ever feel the need to.
Still, I appreciate that quite a few Leaver opponents of the WA are desperately looking for a way to climbdown, and this, it appears, provides it.
That's not quite right I think. As I understand it, the EU has agreed to strengthen the language on 'good faith', which would make it easier to take the step of exiting the backstop if ever necessary.
This will test the DUP. Its legalesse is right in DUP wonkland and they are good at this kind of thing. It has some room for them to back it.
If they go for it they will bring their electorate with them ok but, and no matter what your polls suggest, for the DUP and vast majority of unionists, the blood is way thicker than water and that, always, is the underlying motivation.
Suspect DUP will vote for this. And perhaps 50 Labour abstentions, too.
Dream on.
Brexit is reality William. DUP and Mogg will join May in Lobby tomorrow, they want to avoid another ref, along with at least 30 Labour rebels who also want to avoid another ref. May wins tomorrow. People’s vote/remain is dead.
Not a lawyer, but once you get past the waffle, the UK can raise a dispute (part 6, title 3) . It isn't a unilateral exit. Question is whether enough MPs want to believe it.
Suspect DUP will vote for this. And perhaps 50 Labour abstentions, too.
Dream on.
Brexit is reality William. DUP and Mogg will join May in Lobby tomorrow, they want to avoid another ref, along with at least 30 Labour rebels who also want to avoid another ref. May wins tomorrow. People’s vote/remain is dead.
And if that’s the case, SeanT adds another grand to his largesse.
If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
The key will be Cox's advice and the DUP
Indeed. If Cox and the DUP back it that is good enough for me.
The EU seemed genuinely taken aback after talking to Cox last week and now finally there's progress. Pisses me off that someone like Cox wasn't used sooner rather than Robbins etc
This is just a face-saving fudge. There was clearly always the possibility of abrogating on the basis of the other party not acting in good faith. Today's announcement and the unilateral declaration make it no easier to take that step, should the government of the day ever feel the need to.
Still, I appreciate that quite a few Leaver opponents of the WA are desperately looking for a way to climbdown, and this, it appears, provides it.
It is the equivalent of arranging food into a smiley face for a fussy younger eater, interesting to see how many actually objected to the food on the plate and can't be satisfied by the presentation.
Haven't seen anyone post this yet but apologies if I've missed it - Sporting Index have a market up on the number of "ayes" on MV2 tomorrow, although market is currently suspended.
I suspect it will be volatile, for a while, once it opens/resumes. The distribution of outcomes is non-trivial right now; I would suggest it is bi- and possibly multi-modal.
A unilateral declaration definitely trumps the legal treaty. I am sure that Codpiece Cox will change his mind...
If the AG doesn't, then surely May resigns? She has just put in her final shift at the EU tables, there is no way she can survive her own AG saying it is a load of crap.
Suspect DUP will vote for this. And perhaps 50 Labour abstentions, too.
Dream on.
Brexit is reality William. DUP and Mogg will join May in Lobby tomorrow, they want to avoid another ref, along with at least 30 Labour rebels who also want to avoid another ref. May wins tomorrow. People’s vote/remain is dead.
Goodnight. 🙃
Yes, well, that would be the sensible thing for ERG, if they want to avoid watching Alistair Campbell laughing at them daily on TV as the 2nd referendum gets under way.
If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
I imagine your view will be shared by MP's like Grant Shapps, Hugo Swire, Michael Fallon, Johnny Mercer, Sir Graham Brady, Stephen McParland, but I wonder will hold out to the bitter end.
Indeed I expect so, I would always have preferred to associate myself with the likes of Mercer et al (I'll pass on Shapps) rather than Moggs and co
Last month all Leavers except Ann Marie Trevalyn backed the deal on proviso the backstop was dealt with. If the backstop has been dealt with they should honour their pledge.
I know there will be so much more aggravation to follow, years of it, but it is nice to think, for a moment, that whether one wants to remain or leave at least the question might be settled tomorrow. Thank you to the DUP for not killing it off right away, so I can take that thought with me as I go to rest.
Comments
Your substantial point is broadly right, though.
If they go for it they will bring their electorate with them ok but, and no matter what your polls suggest, for the DUP and vast majority of unionists, the blood is way thicker than water and that, always, is the underlying motivation.
Brexit is reality William. DUP and Mogg will join May in Lobby tomorrow, they want to avoid another ref, along with at least 30 Labour rebels who also want to avoid another ref. May wins tomorrow. People’s vote/remain is dead.
Goodnight. 🙃
I suspect it will be volatile, for a while, once it opens/resumes. The distribution of outcomes is non-trivial right now; I would suggest it is bi- and possibly multi-modal.
But when did sense come into it?
Last month all Leavers except Ann Marie Trevalyn backed the deal on proviso the backstop was dealt with. If the backstop has been dealt with they should honour their pledge.
Night all.
The optics of the EU making some concessions changes the blame narrative . If May had come back empty handed the press would have gone to town .
And if the ERG refuse to back this then other Tories will round on them and calls for a second vote to ratify the deal will grow .