I thought it was great. My favourite Marvel film...
CoughcoughWinterSoldiercoughcough
Ragnarok is my 2nd favourite.
THOR: You're late LOKI: You're missing an eye VALKYRIE: This isn't over...
Given that we are all celebrating May's EU thing but Jacob Rees Hela is still advancing towards us, I thought it might be a good time to remind ourselves of that dialogue...
Finally something helpful. I'll choose to be relatively hopeful for a few minutes on this, but I guess it'll come down to Cox to give it even a chance.
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Since neither he nor the government minister commending it has seen the "agreement" (not that it matters, see my note below), what do you expect him to say? "Gosh! You've nailed it! Well done guys."
I expect him to say 'we look forward to seeing the details, and then we will give our view'. How difficult is that for a lawyer? Or indeed for an reasonable person. Hell, even the DUP have managed that.
It seems Liddington has not seen it yet either, so currently we have the blind debating the blind.
I reckon that we really know Nothing has Changed!
Indeed one of the problems of the backstop, from Dec 2017 on has been that what the Backstop means has been interpreted differently by each side all along.
Ken Clarke pure class on newsnight. I suspect this is all a waste of time and this deal isn't going through, but I've given up on trying to work this out.
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Since neither he nor the government minister commending it has seen the "agreement" (not that it matters, see my note below), what do you expect him to say? "Gosh! You've nailed it! Well done guys."
I expect him to say 'we look forward to seeing the details, and then we will give our view'. How difficult is that for a lawyer? Or indeed for an reasonable person. Hell, even the DUP have managed that.
Seriously, I would expect him to say, why are you insulting our intelligence by making a statement on an agreement that either doesn't exist or you don't think we deserve to see.
If you were thinking that A50 requires the leaving MS to negotiate with the Council, and were wondering why Tusk isn't doing this presser rather than Juncker, the latter just said "I have just [told Tusk the EUCO will approve it] and he [rolled over and said okay]".
Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?
The threat of BINO or No Brexit at all
It's worked so well this far.
If the House rejects the Deal tomorrow it will almost certainly also reject No Deal and vote for extension of Article 50, hence the threat becomes real
They can't reject no deal. It's the law. They can't force the government to drop it as you need primary legislation to do that, plus the Queen's consent which only Ministers can give. If the deal dies we will either have to revoke or leave on 29th with no deal. That's it.
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Since neither he nor the government minister commending it has seen the "agreement" (not that it matters, see my note below), what do you expect him to say? "Gosh! You've nailed it! Well done guys."
I expect him to say 'we look forward to seeing the details, and then we will give our view'. How difficult is that for a lawyer? Or indeed for an reasonable person. Hell, even the DUP have managed that.
Seriously, I would expect him to say, why are you insulting our intelligence by making a statement on an agreement that either doesn't exist or you don't think we deserve to see.
Did he say that?
Bit hard to take that line when Labour have been pestering for a statement all day.
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Since neither he nor the government minister commending it has seen the "agreement" (not that it matters, see my note below), what do you expect him to say? "Gosh! You've nailed it! Well done guys."
I expect him to say 'we look forward to seeing the details, and then we will give our view'. How difficult is that for a lawyer? Or indeed for an reasonable person. Hell, even the DUP have managed that.
Seriously, I would expect him to say, why are you insulting our intelligence by making a statement on an agreement that either doesn't exist or you don't think we deserve to see.
Did he say that?
Bit hard to take that line when Labour have been pestering for a statement all day.
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Only if he’s wrong.
Not at all. A person of integrity - let alone a lawyer - doesn't trash a proposed deal without reading it. He's a disgrace.
Many MP's form opinions about things without troubling to read them.
Keir Starmer has been quite extraordinarily, disgracefully cynical on this. He's done an ERG: trashing the revised agreement without knowing what it is. He didn't even make a token attempt to sound reasonable. I used to have some respect for him, but not any more.
Only if he’s wrong.
Not at all. A person of integrity - let alone a lawyer - doesn't trash a proposed deal without reading it. He's a disgrace.
Many MP's form opinions about things without troubling to read them.
Unfortunately so. I had higher expectations of Starmer, but clearly I was naive.
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.com
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.
May has been hinging her hopes on that group as being very big for months. Now we'll see if those hopes were fruitless at least. Same with the occasionally rumoured 'dozens' of Labour votes which are needed even if 50+ Tories change their minds.
It's something (or at least presented as something). That at least means people have to reconfirm their positions in light of purportedly new info, which is progress in one sense at least
Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?
The threat of BINO or No Brexit at all
It's worked so well this far.
If the House rejects the Deal tomorrow it will almost certainly also reject No Deal and vote for extension of Article 50, hence the threat becomes real
It should already be real to them. When I'm standing in the path of an oncoming train it is still real when it is 500m away, not just 50m away. They know no Brexit or BINO could happen if they vote down the deal, they always have
Not yet, they still think No Deal is default, that will change over the next few days as No Brexit or BINO overtakes No Deal as the likely alternative to the Deal
Meaningful legal assurances in complementary instrument outside of WA which is unaltered.
Perhaps the point is that if both parties agree publiclly on an interpretation of the WA before finally inking the deal, then it might be quite hard to challenge that interpretation subsequently ?
I can't help feeling that starting out an agreement with one party claiming it can unilaterally renege on it isn't the most wholesome basis for a friendly future relationship, but needs must, I suppose.
Seems May has managed to get some new temporary legal assurances on the backstop, unlikely to be enough to win the vote but could be enough to narrow the margin of defeat enabling passage on a third vote
What will be the rabbit out of the hat to change things on the third vote?
The threat of BINO or No Brexit at all
It's worked so well this far.
If the House rejects the Deal tomorrow it will almost certainly also reject No Deal and vote for extension of Article 50, hence the threat becomes real
They can't reject no deal. It's the law. They can't force the government to drop it as you need primary legislation to do that, plus the Queen's consent which only Ministers can give. If the deal dies we will either have to revoke or leave on 29th with no deal. That's it.
Of course they can, the government is giving Parliament the chance to overwhelmingly vote against No Deal tomorrow which it will take. Parliament will vote for extension and EUref2 or Norway Plus over No Deal, the No Deal vote will just confirm that, if the Deal is rejected then Brexit likely dies
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.com
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.
Fourteen million? What happened to the other 3.4 million Leave voters?
If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.com
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.
Fourteen million? What happened to the other 3.4 million Leave voters?
Who knows, they are evil, shifty devils those Leave voters.
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.com
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.
Labour's position ended months ago. It's just an excuse to trash the possibility of a good outcome, and always has been. If it wasn't, they'd have voted for the deal because nothing in it would prevent a future Labour government going for a closer relationship or customs union.
If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
All this stuff about the sanctity of our one precious union has evaporated surprisingly quickly if there are now 14m different Britains. Still, Scotland will be happy.
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.com
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.com
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.
If she thinks that it will still lose, then this really is over for her. She got (or claims to have gotten) something, and she has no more room to ask for time to get something else.
I can't help feeling that starting out an agreement with one party claiming it can unilaterally renege on it isn't the most wholesome basis for a friendly future relationship, but needs must, I suppose.
The European Parliament hasn't passed this yet, has it? Have to hope they don't take the same view...
Agreed - it's all about how many needed a face-saving way out and how many are hard-core no-dealers.
ERG high command will listen to DUP first, probably about lunchtime tomorrow. DUP and Mogg will vote for May’s deal tomorrow, probably Davis and IDS and Rabb too if he’s any ambition. Small band of ERG hardcore and smaller band of Tory remainers will join corbyn and Starmer in the lobby, that’s less Tory’s in lobby with labour than labour rebels in lobby with May. Another sizeable group of Tory’s and Labour, including Boris will abstain. Boris will pick up theatre tickets from last minute.com
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’sit might squeak through climbdown today.
If you're overs on 40 I'm unders. Betfair still says 2nd meaningful vote passing is at 9/2 or thereabouts
I'm not sure what more the EU can give quite frankly; or what May can get. The key is what Foster & Dodds make of the deal. If they approve it, the DUP will go for it. That brings along all but the ultra-die hards of the ERG. A few Labour sprinkles, a Stephen Lloyd and bumph it is through.
If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
The key will be Cox's advice and the DUP
Indeed. If Cox and the DUP back it that is good enough for me.
The EU seemed genuinely taken aback after talking to Cox last week and now finally there's progress. Pisses me off that someone like Cox wasn't used sooner rather than Robbins etc
While not an indicator that they will back it, it is at least something that so far the DUP, all of them, are holding fire on their comments. Maybe they'll say it is an insulting fig leaf, maybe that is is something but not enough, but at least so far they seem willing to sleep on it.
If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
The key will be Cox's advice and the DUP
Yup. Steve Baker takes the award for premature head bang prize... Surely one of the favourites to have done so
Interesting. They failed to make the obvious point that, under the Treaties, the WA cannot bind us permanently, since the EU has repeatedly said that the long-term relationship can only be negotiated once we've left.
Still, as fudges go this isn't a bad one. Just as Northern Cyprus is simultaneously part of the EU and not part of the EU, in this new interpretation it would both be possible for the UK to exit the backstop and impossible to do so.
The truth is, May doesn’t know if this will work. Perhaps she thinks she will not. I expect her to win tomorrow, but - even if the DUP are on board - It will be mighty close.
The idea of significant Labour abstentions is for the birds.
If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
I imagine your view will be shared by MP's like Grant Shapps, Hugo Swire, Michael Fallon, Johnny Mercer, Sir Graham Brady, Stephen McParland, but I wonder will hold out to the bitter end.
If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
The key will be Cox's advice and the DUP
Yup. Steve Baker takes the award for premature head bang prize... Surely one of the favourites to have done so
Someone wrote the other day that for some in the ERG (presumably Baker being a key one), May could come back with a cure for cancer, and they would still say no.
The truth is, May doesn’t know if this will work. Perhaps she thinks she will not. I expect her to win tomorrow, but - even if the DUP are on board - It will be mighty close.
The idea of significant Labour abstentions is for the birds.
It’s a gamble, for sure. But it might just work.
All contentious votes are close - Maastricht only just passed.
Unilateral declaration described in the motion as: the unilateral declaration by the UK titled ‘Declaration by Her Majesty’s Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland concerning the Northern Ireland Protocol’, setting out the sovereign action the UK would take to provide assurance that the backstop would only be applied temporarily;
If this is as serious as it seems then I will back the deal. An unending permanent backstop was my key objection, if this has been dealt with then job done. Time to ratify this deal and move on to the transition and negotiating our final trade deal.
The key will be Cox's advice and the DUP
Indeed. If Cox and the DUP back it that is good enough for me.
The EU seemed genuinely taken aback after talking to Cox last week and now finally there's progress. Pisses me off that someone like Cox wasn't used sooner rather than Robbins etc
This is just a face-saving fudge. There was clearly always the possibility of abrogating on the basis of the other party not acting in good faith. Today's announcement and the unilateral declaration make it no easier to take that step, should the government of the day ever feel the need to.
Still, I appreciate that quite a few Leaver opponents of the WA are desperately looking for a way to climbdown, and this, it appears, provides it.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
All this stuff about the sanctity of our one precious union has evaporated surprisingly quickly if there are now 14m different Britains. Still, Scotland will be happy.
If 2016 is re run tomorrow leave will get at least fourteen million votes is what i’m Saying. What are you saying.
Comments
LOKI: You're missing an eye
VALKYRIE: This isn't over...
Given that we are all celebrating May's EU thing but Jacob Rees Hela is still advancing towards us, I thought it might be a good time to remind ourselves of that dialogue...
I reckon that we really know Nothing has Changed!
Indeed one of the problems of the backstop, from Dec 2017 on has been that what the Backstop means has been interpreted differently by each side all along.
JRM.... isn’t.
I suspect this is all a waste of time and this deal isn't going through, but I've given up on trying to work this out.
Did he say that?
Meaningful legal assurances in complementary instrument outside of WA which is unaltered.
Smoke n mirrors BREXIT.
Goodnight
May wins tomorrow by at least 40.
We might not need a couple of weeks extension at end of this month at least fourteen million Britain’s are going to party to mark our leaving of the EU.
This is how it is now because of Dublin’s climbdown today.
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/1105238043106181120?s=19
http://daystobrexit.co.uk/
I guess there is a glimmer of hope in the fact that Sammy Wilson hasn't been shooting his mouth off about this.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1105240977760026627
A few Labour sprinkles, a Stephen Lloyd and bumph it is through.
The EU seemed genuinely taken aback after talking to Cox last week and now finally there's progress. Pisses me off that someone like Cox wasn't used sooner rather than Robbins etc
Still, as fudges go this isn't a bad one. Just as Northern Cyprus is simultaneously part of the EU and not part of the EU, in this new interpretation it would both be possible for the UK to exit the backstop and impossible to do so.
I expect her to win tomorrow, but - even if the DUP are on board - It will be mighty close.
The idea of significant Labour abstentions is for the birds.
All down to what DUP do.
All contentious votes are close - Maastricht only just passed.
I’ve topped up on leaving by March 29th tonight.
the unilateral declaration by the UK titled ‘Declaration by Her Majesty’s Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland concerning the Northern Ireland Protocol’, setting out the sovereign action the UK would take to provide assurance that the backstop would only be applied temporarily;
Still, I appreciate that quite a few Leaver opponents of the WA are desperately looking for a way to climbdown, and this, it appears, provides it.
There has been no change since December 2018!
What is this ludicrous dance we have embraced.
Nothing. Changes.