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The point is that were those two wards removed and the seat restored to its 1992 boundaries , his 2017 majority would probably have been a fair bit smaller.HYUFD said:
So? In 2015 Gapes increased the Labour vote by 14.6% in the seat, in 1997 by 13.5%justin124 said:
There were boundary changes in 1997 which added Chadwell and Seven Kings to the Ilford South seat.HYUFD said:
Excuse me?another_richard said:
Indeed.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Read Anthony Wells:HYUFD said:
So what, the demographics are pretty similar across Redbridge, Gapes has had huge personal success in turning a Tory seat in 1987 into one with a 31,647 majority for Labour in 2017Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.HYUFD said:
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford SouthSunil_Prasannan said:
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and WansteadSunil_Prasannan said:
Demographic changes.HYUFD said:
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal voteMikeSmithson said:
Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituencyHYUFD said:Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordsouth/
This is a densely packed residential seat without of ethnically diverse east London.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
What on earth has the fact Ilford South being slightly less desirable than Ilford North got to do with the fact Gapes has turned a 9,000 vote gap in Labour's favour between the Ilford seats in 1992 into a 22,000 vote gap in Labour's favour in 2017? Plus a rising ethnic population has affected both seats0 -
Night all.
I must rest my fevered brow.
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Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in NorthSunil_Prasannan said:
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, Ilford North has experienite in the 2011 census'another_richard said:
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.HYUFD said:
Excuse me?another_richard said:
Indeed.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Read Anthony Wells:HYUFD said:Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.HYUFD said:
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford SouthSunil_Prasannan said:
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and WansteadSunil_Prasannan said:
Demographic changes.HYUFD said:
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal voteMikeSmithson said:
Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituencyHYUFD said:Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordsouth/
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
What on earth has the faoth seats0 -
Your problem Thomo is trial by media, thinking about a particular airhead individual and not the principles of security, ethics (and philosophy where you dump on others they now dump on you).Philip_Thompson said:
Our national responsibility is to our nation. Letting back in to the nation people we have no legal obligation to let back in, who think the Manchester Arena bombing was justified, is not helping our nation.Richard_Tyndall said:
Except it is by no means just 'Lefties' who think this way. This is not about rights but about both personal and national responsibility.TGOHF said:
The Isis bride hates Britain . Hence Anzina supports her no matter anything else.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Do you agree with her Islamist ideology, _Anazina_?_Anazina_ said:Philip_Thompson said:
She betrayed this country. She spat at us in the face. She f***ed off. she said that bombing the Manchester Arena was justified._Anazina_ said:
The fact we - as a ostensibly civilised country - are even flirting with this sophistry is risible. This girl has never even set foot in Bangladesh. She was born, and made, in Britain. We should fucking deal with it.Chris said:The Guardian has a comment on the question of Shamima Begum's Bangladeshi citizenship:
But Najrul Khasru, a British-Bangladeshi barrister and part-time tribunal judge who has reviewed Bangladesh’s citizenship laws, told the Guardian he believed Begum was not a Bangladeshi citizen unless, at the time of her birth, her parents had registered her at the High Commission, which he said was very uncommon within the British-Bangladeshi community.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/21/what-is-the-truth-about-shamima-begums-citizenship-status
A link is provided to the Citizenship Act, 1951:
http://bdlaws.minlaw.gov.bd/print_sections_all.php?id=242
Although I am not a solicitor, his argument seems clearly incorrect to me.
Thank you for that level-headed, intelligently argued and nuanced response.
Lefty sectioning in action.
I was making the argument The result of losing tabs and control of IS members is less security at home and around the world, whilst the policy of alienation and grievance actually plays into the hands of extremists. Do you not see a bit of truth in that, when lead commissioner for countering extremism and anti terror experts say these things?
Despite that It’s hard to make an argument, to return them to treat them as British criminals and British terrorists when the Tory government is allowing 90% of the returning IS members to get off scot free.
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Anthony Wells again :another_richard said:
Okay lets put some actual vote numbers to your claims.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, Ilford North has experienced demographic change as much as Ilford South, certainly on a relative basis, I should know I canvassed Ilford North in 2017 and half the houses I knocked had Asian votersanother_richard said:
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.HYUFD said:another_richard said:
Indeed.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Read Anthony Wells:HYUFD said:
So what, the demographics are pretty similar across Redbridge, Gapes has had huge personal success in turning a Tory seat in 1987 into one with a 31,647 majority for Labour in 2017Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.HYUFD said:
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford SouthSunil_Prasannan said:
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and WansteadSunil_Prasannan said:
Demographic changes.HYUFD said:
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal voteMikeSmithson said:
Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordsouth/
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
What personal vote do you think Gapes has ?
And for comparison purposes please give what personal vote you think nearby MPs have.
Ethnic split in Ilford North in 2011:
White British 44%
Asian 33%
White other 8%
Black 8%
Mixed 4%
Other: 2%
Ethnic split in Ilford South in 2011:
Asian 57%
White British 17%
Black 11%
White other 7%
Mixed 4%
Other: 3%
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Corbyn's hopes are the ones collapsingjustin124 said:Chris Leslie has always struck me as someone who was seriously overpromoted and very lucky to have even found himself an MP. Very lightweight and is still finding it difficult to come to terms with Labour having elected a Leader such as Corbyn with the consequent collapse of his former hopes of advancement.
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Anthony Wells again :HYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in NorthSunil_Prasannan said:
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, Ilford North has experienite in the 2011 census'another_richard said:
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.HYUFD said:
Excuse me?another_richard said:
Indeed.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Read Anthony Wells:HYUFD said:Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.HYUFD said:
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford SouthSunil_Prasannan said:
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and WansteadSunil_Prasannan said:
Demographic changes.HYUFD said:
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal voteMikeSmithson said:
Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituencyHYUFD said:Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordsouth/
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
What on earth has the faoth seats
Ethnic split in Ilford North in 2011:
White British 44%
Asian 33%
White other 8%
Black 8%
Mixed 4%
Other: 2%
Ethnic split in Ilford South in 2011:
Asian 57%
White British 17%
Black 11%
White other 7%
Mixed 4%
Other: 3%0 -
But
Tellingly she has been a loyalist cheerleader since, not even nuanced in her tribalism.notme2 said:
Shami Shami Shami (as rod Liddle called her ) was once a ubiquitous figure on tv. As head of Liberty carved out a media profile as a fair minded and trustworthy arbitrator of that which is good and bad. And she traded this reputation by giving the Labour Party a clean bill of health on anti Semitism and rewarded by a seat in the lords.rottenborough said:
It was so grubby and transactional. It was Kidscape level of fall from grace.0 -
That is a non sequitur . I am not seeking to suggest the Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet provides a good benchmark at all - though Leslie is not a match for Mcdonnell - Starmer - Thornberry - or even Abbot - very unimpressed though I am by the latter.rottenborough said:
You are having a laugh right?justin124 said:Chris Leslie has always struck me as someone who was seriously overpromoted and very lucky to have even found himself an MP. Very lightweight and is still finding it difficult to come to terms with Labour having elected a Leader such as Corbyn with the consequent collapse of his former hopes of advancement.
"seriously overpromoted."
With Jezza's Shad Cabinet as the role models?
Jeez, give me a break.0 -
There are 4 MPs in Redbridge IDS, Streeting, Gapes and Cryer.another_richard said:
Okay lets put some actual vote numbers to your claims.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, Ilford Nor votersanother_richard said:
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.HYUFD said:
Excuse me?another_richard said:
Indeed.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Read Anthony Wells:HYUFD said:
So whSunil_Prasannan said:
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.HYUFD said:
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford SouthSunil_Prasannan said:
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and WansteadSunil_Prasannan said:
Demographic changes.HYUFD said:
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal voteMikeSmithson said:
Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordsouth/
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
What on earth has the fact Ilford South being slightly less desirable than Ilford North got to do with the fact Gapes has turned a 9,000 vote gap in Labour's favour between the Ilford seats in 1992 into a 22,000 vote gap in Labour's favour in 2017? Plus a rising ethnic population has affected both seats
What personal vote do you think Gapes has ?
And for comparison purposes please give what personal vote you think nearby MPs have.
IDS has increased his vote in Chingford and Woodford Green from 47.5% in 1997 to 49.1% in 2017.
Streeting has increased his vote in Ilford North from 43.9% in 2015 to 57.8% in 2017.
Cryer has increased his vote in Leyton and Wanstead from 43.6% in 2010 to 69.8% in 2017.
Gapes has increased his vote in Ilford South from 45.4% in 1992 to 75.8% in 2017, so he has the biggest personal vote of any MP in the area
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Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in NorthHYUFD said:
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Rubbish, Ilford North has experienite in the 2011 census'HYUFD said:
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.another_richard said:
Excuse me?HYUFD said:
Indeed.another_richard said:
Read Anthony Wells:Sunil_Prasannan said:HYUFD said:
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford SouthHYUFD said:
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and WansteadHYUFD said:
Demographic changes.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordsouth/
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
What on earth has the faoth seats
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other
Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
By comparison in the 2001 census:
Ilford North 76% White
Ilford South 45% White
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
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She's in Syriadots said:
Your problem Thomo is trial by media, thinking about a particular airhead individual and not the principles of security, ethics (and philosophy where you dump on others they now dump on you).
I was making the argument The result of losing tabs and control of IS members is less security at home and around the world, whilst the policy of alienation and grievance actually plays into the hands of extremists. Do you not see a bit of truth in that, when lead commissioner for countering extremism and anti terror experts say these things?
Despite that It’s hard to make an argument, to return them to treat them as British criminals and British terrorists when the Tory government is allowing 90% of the returning IS members to get off scot free.
ISIS did a lot of bad stuff in Syria
Let her face Syrian justice (whether Assad, Kurds, Opposition)0 -
Mike Gapes doesn't have a hope in hell of holding Ilford South without the official "Labour" stamp next to his name. I agree with Sunil, they're voting "Labour" not "Gapes"..
Anyone on this board could win Ilford South as the official Labour candidate !0 -
Stop the gibber and tell us how big you think Mike Gapes personal vote is.HYUFD said:
There are 4 MPs in Redbridge IDS, Streeting, Gapes and Cryer.another_richard said:
Okay lets put some actual vote numbers to your claims.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, Ilford Nor votersanother_richard said:
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.HYUFD said:
Excuse me?another_richard said:
Indeed.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Read Anthony Wells:HYUFD said:
So whSunil_Prasannan said:
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.HYUFD said:
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford SouthSunil_Prasannan said:
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and WansteadSunil_Prasannan said:
Demographic changes.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordsouth/
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
What on earth has the fact Ilford South being slightly less desirable than Ilford North got to do with the fact Gapes has turned a 9,000 vote gap in Labour's favour between the Ilford seats in 1992 into a 22,000 vote gap in Labour's favour in 2017? Plus a rising ethnic population has affected both seats
What personal vote do you think Gapes has ?
And for comparison purposes please give what personal vote you think nearby MPs have.
IDS has increased his vote in Chingford and Woodford Green from 47.5% in 1997 to 49.1% in 2017.
Streeting has increased his vote in Ilford North from 43.9% in 2015 to 57.8% in 2017.
Cryer has increased his vote in Leyton and Wanstead from 43.6% in 2010 to 69.8% in 2017.
Gapes has increased his vote in Ilford South from 45.4% in 1992 to 75.8% in 2017, so he has the biggest personal vote of any MP in the area0 -
Yes, it was by an over-excitable LibDem.another_richard said:I thought we'd been told on PB that the Allen and Soubry were certain of being re-elected ?
Like I don't begrudge ManCity a bit of success now, because their supporters have suffered through so much, so I don't begrudge an over-excitable LibDem a little bit of bluffing about "shoo-ins".
You know, I know, and William Hill know that the number of TIGgers in next Parliament is most likely zero.0 -
No - if you're British-born you can be deprived of British citizenship only if you already have citizenship of another country.notme2 said:
Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.Philip_Thompson said:
The legal advice of the government say that she is a dual-national, in which case we can do this.notme2 said:
Yes. But let’s step back for a moment. She’s not a dual national. She was British born. Stripping her of her citizenship makes her stateless. Things like this can have ripples around the world.Philip_Thompson said:
She betrayed this country. She took what we gave her and spat at us in the face. She f***ed off. She can live with her choices. We gave her education, healthcare, somewhere to live and she said that bombing the Manchester Arena was justified._Anazina_ said:
The fact we - as a ostensibly civilised country - are even flirting with this sophistry is risible. This girl has never even set foot in Bangladesh. She was born, and made, in Britain. We should fucking deal with it.
We owe her nothing. She's made her choice.
If she's not a dual-national then our courts should rectify that. She should be told that she is still a citizen and is welcome to return to the UK at any point and be charged with treason and face potential life in prison.
But if she is a dual-citizen I see no legal or ethical reason we shouldn't put our own country over this vile woman. Anyone who defends the Manchester Arena bombing and calls it justified is not welcome in this country as far as I'm concerned. I don't give a shit about her race, religion or politics - I do think that goes too far.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
It's only for those who are British by naturalisation that the "entitled to but not have" criterion comes into play.0 -
Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.0 -
Those figures prove little in the context of massive demographic changes and significant boundary revisions.It would be just as ridiculous as to suggest that the big increase in the Labour majority in Wallasey since 1992 implies a big personal vote for Angela Eagle.HYUFD said:
There are 4 MPs in Redbridge IDS, Streeting, Gapes and Cryer.another_richard said:
Okay lets put some actual vote numbers to your claims.HYUFD said:
Rubbish, Ilford Nor votersanother_richard said:
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.HYUFD said:
Excuse me?another_richard said:
Indeed.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Read Anthony Wells:HYUFD said:
So whSunil_Prasannan said:
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.HYUFD said:
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford SouthSunil_Prasannan said:
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.HYUFD said:
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and WansteadSunil_Prasannan said:
Demographic changes.HYUFD said:
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal voteMikeSmithson said:
Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordsouth/
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
What personal vote do you think Gapes has ?
And for comparison purposes please give what personal vote you think nearby MPs have.
IDS has increased his vote in Chingford and Woodford Green from 47.5% in 1997 to 49.1% in 2017.
Streeting has increased his vote in Ilford North from 43.9% in 2015 to 57.8% in 2017.
Cryer has increased his vote in Leyton and Wanstead from 43.6% in 2010 to 69.8% in 2017.
Gapes has increased his vote in Ilford South from 45.4% in 1992 to 75.8% in 2017, so he has the biggest personal vote of any MP in the area0 -
And going back further in time (there might have been a boundary change effect) from Robert Waller:another_richard said:
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White OtherHYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in NorthSunil_Prasannan said:
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
By comparison in the 2001 census:
Ilford North 76% White
Ilford South 45% White
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
1981 census
Ilford North 8% Black/Asian
Ilford South 20% Black/Asian
1991 census
Ilford North 13% non-white
Ilford South 36% non-white0 -
If you want to witness 100 blokes talking about electoral boundaries you can always check out the VoteUK discussion forum.Endillion said:Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.0 -
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Otheranother_richard said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in NorthHYUFD said:
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Rubbish, Ilford North has experienite in the 2011 census'HYUFD said:
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.another_richard said:
Excuse me?HYUFD said:
Indeed.another_richard said:
Read Anthony Wells:Sunil_Prasannan said:HYUFD said:
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford SouthHYUFD said:
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and WansteadHYUFD said:
Demographic changes.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordsouth/
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
What on earth has the faoth seats
Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
By comparison in the 2001 census:
Ilford North 76% White
Ilford South 45% White
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?0 -
I largely agree. It’s always struck me Leslie and chuck have sanguine personalities not really suited to front line politics. If you think of them as footballers, just too easy to wind them up. Whenever they got shirty with interviewers i always found it awkward, not what you are looking for from politicians.justin124 said:
That is a non sequitur . I am not seeking to suggest the Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet provides a good benchmark at all - though Leslie is not a match for Mcdonnell - Starmer - Thornberry - or even Abbot - very unimpressed though I am by the latter.rottenborough said:
You are having a laugh right?justin124 said:Chris Leslie has always struck me as someone who was seriously overpromoted and very lucky to have even found himself an MP. Very lightweight and is still finding it difficult to come to terms with Labour having elected a Leader such as Corbyn with the consequent collapse of his former hopes of advancement.
"seriously overpromoted."
With Jezza's Shad Cabinet as the role models?
Jeez, give me a break.
For evidence, how Chuck stormed off Murnaghan In comparison how Thornberry laughed off being pub quizzed.0 -
Cheers, but too niche. It's the variety I come here for.AndyJS said:
If you want to witness 100 blokes talking about electoral boundaries you can always check out the VoteUK discussion forum.Endillion said:Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.0 -
Correct but Epping is NOT East LondonEndillion said:Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.0 -
Don’t you suspect, put the pad down and pick it up in six hours and they are still going at it like dogs at a hot fish and chip supper?Endillion said:Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.0 -
Anthony Wells again :HYUFD said:
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
Ethnic split in Ilford North in 2011:
White British 44%
Asian 33%
White other 8%
Black 8%
Mixed 4%
Other: 2%
Ethnic split in Ilford South in 2011:
Asian 57%
White British 17%
Black 11%
White other 7%
Mixed 4%
Other: 3%0 -
Hopefully another MP will have flounced by then so there'll be something else to talk about.dots said:
Don’t you suspect, put the pad down and pick it up in six hours and they are still going at it like dogs at a hot fish and chip supper?Endillion said:Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.0 -
This is what you said:HYUFD said:
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?another_richard said:
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White OtherHYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in NorthSunil_Prasannan said:
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
By comparison in the 2001 census:
Ilford North 76% White
Ilford South 45% White
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.HYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North0 -
I flipping knew that was going to happen, and all.HYUFD said:
Correct but Epping is NOT East LondonEndillion said:Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.0 -
You know what? I'm going in.Endillion said:
I flipping knew that was going to happen, and all.HYUFD said:
Correct but Epping is NOT East LondonEndillion said:Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.
If it's on the Tube, it's part of London.
At any rate it's more London than Ilford is.
Good night!0 -
Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.0
-
To put HYUFD's stubborness into context during the 2017GE he repeatedly claimed that ending Winter Fuel Allowance in England but keeping it in Scotland was going to be a vote winner ... in England.
And when after the 2017GE the Conservatives dropped the WFA plan he changed his tune with an ease which an Oceania orator would admire.0 -
Hmm I'm going to swerve the bet as it is restricted to the above, and perhaps only Wollaston has a chance or Allen...
One potential Labour Tigger that could hold is Ian Murray0 -
No I did not however I did argue Scottish Tories could do their own thing and of course the Tory voteshare did rise in England and the Tories gained seats in Scotland.another_richard said:To put HYUFD's stubborness into context during the 2017GE he repeatedly claimed that ending Winter Fuel Allowance in England but keeping it in Scotland was going to be a vote winner ... in England.
And when after the 2017GE the Conservatives dropped the WFA plan he changed his tune with an ease which an Oceania orator would admire.
0 -
Indeed.Pulpstar said:Hmm I'm going to swerve the bet as it is restricted to the above, and perhaps only Wollaston has a chance or Allen...
One potential Labour Tigger that could hold is Ian Murray
In Scotland its all about concentrating the Unionist vote.
And a Corbyn Labour candidate would likely struggle with that.0 -
The New Jersey Senate has passed a bill preventing anyone being on the ballot for President (or VP) in the state unless they release their last 5 tax returns. The bill now goes to the Democrat governor for approval, the Republican governor (Chris Christie) vetoed the same bill in 2017.
Apparently the same thing was vetoed by a Democrat governor in California in 2017 too.
I must say, this seems like a very slippery slope to inviting red and blue states to pass more and more restrictions and endless cases in the courts as to where the constitutional line is drawn. Like the battle in the Deep South to make abortion clinics impossible through new hoops to jump through, but for the highest office in the land.0 -
What angle do they run against Sadiq with.Quincel said:Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
I) He isn't an antisemite
II) He loves the EU.
Along with the official Labour stamp and incumbency, it makes Sadiq almost invincible !0 -
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for himQuincel said:Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
0 -
I agree. But let's say they are a fully fledged national party by the end of the summer. Can they really not run a candidate? I guess it would be a great example of doing politics less tribally.Pulpstar said:
What angle do they run against Sadiq with.Quincel said:Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
I) He isn't an antisemite
II) He loves the EU.
Along with the official Labour stamp and incumbency, it makes Sadiq almost invincible !0 -
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.HYUFD said:
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for himQuincel said:Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
0 -
Epping is an Essex rural market down that just happens to be at the end of the Central line for convenienceEndillion said:
You know what? I'm going in.Endillion said:
I flipping knew that was going to happen, and all.HYUFD said:
Correct but Epping is NOT East LondonEndillion said:Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.
If it's on the Tube, it's part of London.
At any rate it's more London than Ilford is.
Good night!-1 -
Pretty much, May probably similar feelings but against Khan moreQuincel said:
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.HYUFD said:
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for himQuincel said:Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
0 -
Technically, only one-in-10 have yet been prosecuted by the UK government.dots said:
Trump and Javid had sensible, long term forward thinking policy’s to deal with surrendering IS members several weeks ago, but the politicians backbones couldn’t face down media and public disgust at the idea of returning them from where they came to be dealt with as criminals. The result of losing tabs and control of IS members is less security at home and around the world, whilst the policy of alienation and grievance actually plays into the hands of extremists._Anazina_ said:
The fact we - as a ostensibly civilised country - are even flirting with this sophistry is risible. This girl has never even set foot in Bangladesh. She was born, and made, in Britain. We should fucking deal with it.Chris said:The Guardian has a comment on the question of Shamima Begum's Bangladeshi citizenship:
But Najrul Khasru, a British-Bangladeshi barrister and part-time tribunal judge who has reviewed Bangladesh’s citizenship laws, told the Guardian he believed Begum was not a Bangladeshi citizen unless, at the time of her birth, her parents had registered her at the High Commission, which he said was very uncommon within the British-Bangladeshi community.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/21/what-is-the-truth-about-shamima-begums-citizenship-status
A link is provided to the Citizenship Act, 1951:
http://bdlaws.minlaw.gov.bd/print_sections_all.php?id=242
Although I am not a solicitor, his argument seems clearly incorrect to me.
However, i am beginning to change my mind. there is another powerful angle on it. The strongest argument of all not to bring them home to face the music is Only one in 10 jihadists returning from Syria to the UK have been prosecuted by the British Government.
It’s hard to make an argument, such as Corbyn is trying is trying to do, and you anazina to treat them as British criminals and British terrorists when the government is allowing 90% of the returning IS members to get off scot free.
That might split into:
3 insufficient evidence
3 helping the authorities with their enquiries
3 pending prosecution
1 actually prosecuted
We don't actually know the split - we only know the number of cases that have so far resulted in a prosecution. Given the delays in our legal system (see The Secret Barrister's book), it's probably too early to draw too many conclusions.
And surely, irrespective, the right thing for the government to be doing is bringing sensible primary legislation regarding what constitutes treasonous behaviour, and making sure that the evidential requirements are appropriate.
0 -
Khan gets the tribal Labour vote in this scenario. In London, that's pretty deep in places; Kate Hoey/ Vauxhall is proof of that particular puddingQuincel said:
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.HYUFD said:
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for himQuincel said:Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
0 -
I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seatsanother_richard said:
This is what you said:HYUFD said:
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?another_richard said:
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White OtherHYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in NorthSunil_Prasannan said:
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
By comparison in the 2001 census:
Ilford North 76% White
Ilford South 45% White
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.HYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North0 -
For sure, and Corbyn would obviously endorse him. But I suspect Corbyn's view of tribes within Labour is much starker than almost anyone else in the country. And Khan has quite overtly been outside his for a while. My guess is that he hates him but recognises he needs to work with him. Like Starmer but it's even worse because Khan has the freedom of City Hall to act far more independently.Pulpstar said:
Khan gets the tribal Labour vote in this scenario. In London, that's pretty deep in places; Kate Hoey/ Vauxhall is proof of that particular puddingQuincel said:
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.HYUFD said:
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for himQuincel said:Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
0 -
On that note: Maybe Umunna would be better off contesting Vauxhall than Streatham?Pulpstar said:
Khan gets the tribal Labour vote in this scenario. In London, that's pretty deep in places; Kate Hoey/ Vauxhall is proof of that particular puddingQuincel said:
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.HYUFD said:
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for himQuincel said:Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
0 -
If he does not get over 50% in round 1 though Umunna gets it through preferencesPulpstar said:
Khan gets the tribal Labour vote in this scenario. In London, that's pretty deep in places; Kate Hoey/ Vauxhall is proof of that particular puddingQuincel said:
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.HYUFD said:
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for himQuincel said:Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
0 -
Wells: "[Ilford South] resembles its neighbour East Ham more than it does Ilford North".HYUFD said:
I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seatsanother_richard said:
This is what you said:HYUFD said:
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?another_richard said:
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White OtherHYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in NorthSunil_Prasannan said:
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
By comparison in the 2001 census:
Ilford North 76% White
Ilford South 45% White
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.HYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North0 -
Yes, that's very much my view.notme2 said:Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.0 -
You repeatedly refused to accept that the 2017 Conservative manifesto wasn't the vote winner you claimed it was.HYUFD said:
No I did not however I did argue Scottish Tories could do their own thing and of course the Tory voteshare did rise in England and the Tories gained seats in Scotland.another_richard said:To put HYUFD's stubborness into context during the 2017GE he repeatedly claimed that ending Winter Fuel Allowance in England but keeping it in Scotland was going to be a vote winner ... in England.
And when after the 2017GE the Conservatives dropped the WFA plan he changed his tune with an ease which an Oceania orator would admire.0 -
Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.HYUFD said:
I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seatsanother_richard said:
This is what you said:HYUFD said:
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?another_richard said:
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White OtherHYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in NorthSunil_Prasannan said:
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
By comparison in the 2001 census:
Ilford North 76% White
Ilford South 45% White
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.HYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North0 -
Epping station riginally opened by the GER on an extension from Loughton to Ongar in 1865. Became part of the Central line in 1949. Epping to Ongar closed in 1994 but reopened as a heritage railway in 2012.HYUFD said:
Epping is an Essex rural market down that just happens to be at the end of the Central line for convenienceEndillion said:
You know what? I'm going in.Endillion said:
I flipping knew that was going to happen, and all.HYUFD said:
Correct but Epping is NOT East LondonEndillion said:Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.
If it's on the Tube, it's part of London.
At any rate it's more London than Ilford is.
Good night!0 -
The 2017 Conservative manifesto did get the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 and no I never supported the dementia taxanother_richard said:
You repeatedly refused to accept that the 2017 Conservative manifesto wasn't the vote winner you claimed it was.HYUFD said:
No I did not however I did argue Scottish Tories could do their own thing and of course the Tory voteshare did rise in England and the Tories gained seats in Scotland.another_richard said:To put HYUFD's stubborness into context during the 2017GE he repeatedly claimed that ending Winter Fuel Allowance in England but keeping it in Scotland was going to be a vote winner ... in England.
And when after the 2017GE the Conservatives dropped the WFA plan he changed his tune with an ease which an Oceania orator would admire.0 -
Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIGanother_richard said:
Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.HYUFD said:
I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seatsanother_richard said:
This is what you said:HYUFD said:
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?another_richard said:
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White OtherHYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in NorthSunil_Prasannan said:
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
By comparison in the 2001 census:
Ilford North 76% White
Ilford South 45% White
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.HYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North0 -
Indeed, Eppoing is historic rural EssexSunil_Prasannan said:
Epping station riginally opened by the GER on an extension from Loughton to Ongar in 1865. Became part of the Central line in 1949. Epping to Ongar closed in 1994 but reopened as a heritage railway in 2012.HYUFD said:
Epping is an Essex rural market down that just happens to be at the end of the Central line for convenienceEndillion said:
You know what? I'm going in.Endillion said:
I flipping knew that was going to happen, and all.HYUFD said:
Correct but Epping is NOT East LondonEndillion said:Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.
If it's on the Tube, it's part of London.
At any rate it's more London than Ilford is.
Good night!0 -
Wait, I just realised. TIG can just say they aren't running for Mayor of London as part of their agreement to try not to clash with the LDs. Save the money (and save face potentially). It's the easier way out, so they'll probably take it.0
-
Bah?viewcode said:
Naah. Amersham (Buckinghamshire) on the Tube. Proper Lahndahners don't think it's London unless it's within the North Circular RoadEndillion said:...If it's on the Tube, it's part of London...
Really, you think Hampstead Garden suburb is in London???
London is bordered by the zoo to the North, the river to the South, Brick Lane to the East, and Shepard's Bush Empire to the West.
Outside that, it's suburbia.0 -
0
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That's almost the same as London as defined by Dr Johnson in 1760.rcs1000 said:
Bah?viewcode said:
Naah. Amersham (Buckinghamshire) on the Tube. Proper Lahndahners don't think it's London unless it's within the North Circular RoadEndillion said:...If it's on the Tube, it's part of London...
Really, you think Hampstead Garden suburb is in London???
London is bordered by the zoo to the North, the river to the South, Brick Lane to the East, and Shepard's Bush Empire to the West.
Outside that, it's suburbia.0 -
The vote is on a two preference AV basis. People could vote TIG 1st and LD 2nd.Quincel said:Wait, I just realised. TIG can just say they aren't running for Mayor of London as part of their agreement to try not to clash with the LDs. Save the money (and save face potentially). It's the easier way out, so they'll probably take it.
0 -
Yes, but because it's only two round, it would still make perfect sense to only run one candidate. If there were an unlimited number of transfers, you would be correct.Philip_Thompson said:
The vote is on a two preference AV basis. People could vote TIG 1st and LD 2nd.Quincel said:Wait, I just realised. TIG can just say they aren't running for Mayor of London as part of their agreement to try not to clash with the LDs. Save the money (and save face potentially). It's the easier way out, so they'll probably take it.
0 -
Interesting to compare with the 'Top GDP by Country' graphic - which shows some dramatic change - but nowhere near as much as this:
https://twitter.com/MattNavarra/status/1098580810062618627
https://twitter.com/MatthewConfer/status/10750736250850918400 -
The comparison with the SDP is silly and unrealistic. The SDP had coherent philosophy and binding policies. TIG is an incoherent rag-bag of malcontents who have nothing in common apart from (a) disliking their fomer party leaders (b) disliking Brexit. Assuming that the next general election is in 2022, Brexit will be sorted by then an there will be nothing to hold TIG together. I think that most of them will not stand for re-election, and the rest will get derisory votes. Depending on who the two main party leaders are in 2020-21-22, some of them might go back to their former parties.0
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And if they let her go ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
She's in Syria_Anazina_ said:Sunil
Er, no. I think it’s hateful and vile.
Hence why we shouldn’t dump her on another (allied) country that she has never even set foot in. We should do our own dirty work.
ISIS did a lot of bad stuff in Syria
Let her face Syrian justice
0 -
A possible Trump primary challenger, who seems to have political smarts :
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/21/larry-hogan-2020-trump-1179635
Hogan, who frequently mentions that his late father was the first Republican member of Congress to call for Richard Nixon's impeachment, said he was in no rush to make a decision. A successful campaign, he argued, could start later on.
“At this point in time, I don’t see any path to winning a Republican primary against this president, or anybody doing it. But things have a way of changing,” he said. “I don’t know what the lay of the land is going to look like this summer, or in the fall.”0 -
Fascinating chart on 'the demographic time bomb' - from the 1960s to the late 1990s the UK had one of the greatest proportions of 65+ year olds - typically in the top 5 globally - but from 1999 onwards our position sinks until we're now easily out of the top 20.....while absolute number have gone up, they haven't as fast as other countries.....
https://youtu.be/uJ_dVX6IMFg0 -
R
The 2017 TM manifesto was not used by the Scottish conservatives. We fought the election on the union not brexit. This is constantly forgotten by English tories.another_richard said:
You repeatedly refused to accept that the 2017 Conservative manifesto wasn't the vote winner you claimed it was.HYUFD said:
No I did not however I did argue Scottish Tories could do their own thing and of course the Tory voteshare did rise in England and the Tories gained seats in Scotland.another_richard said:To put HYUFD's stubborness into context during the 2017GE he repeatedly claimed that ending Winter Fuel Allowance in England but keeping it in Scotland was going to be a vote winner ... in England.
And when after the 2017GE the Conservatives dropped the WFA plan he changed his tune with an ease which an Oceania orator would admire.0 -
On topic - I think Luciana Berger would have a very decent shot of winning if she stood in Hendon or Bury.0
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Good morning everyone. Misty here, but you wouldn't call it foggy. Not when compared to the fogs of the 50's and 60's.
And, in reminiscent mood, the Tiggers don't seem to resonate with the public the same way that the SDP did; something about their leadership I suspect.
Of course the Lib leadership was much more high profile then than the LibDem leadership is now.0 -
The Jewish community in Greater Manchester is split across borough and constituency boundaries. On the north side of the city, the Jewish percentage of the population in the 2 constituencies of Bury South (which is a misnomer as it doesn't include the town of Bury itself) and Blackley/Broughton would not be sufficient to enable a Jewish candidate without major party endorsement to win in either constituency.SouthamObserver said:On topic - I think Luciana Berger would have a very decent shot of winning if she stood in Hendon or Bury.
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Masterly understatement there Your Venerable Cheerful Majesty.OldKingCole said:Of course the Lib leadership was much more high profile then than the LibDem leadership is now.
Which is a bit damning when you consider Cable, unlike Steel, is a former cabinet minister.0 -
No more defections? this is getting boring...0
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I’ve put £20 on that.
Scrolling through those bets I was kind of tempted by the 100/1 on Matt Damon becoming US President by 2040.0 -
Thank you. Steel of course had several advantages. First of all he was young, fresh-faced, smart looking and sounding. Cable less so (!).ydoethur said:
Masterly understatement there Your Venerable Cheerful Majesty.OldKingCole said:Of course the Lib leadership was much more high profile then than the LibDem leadership is now.
Which is a bit damning when you consider Cable, unlike Steel, is a former cabinet minister.
The Libs were the third party in Parliament (before SDP split) whereas the LibDem's are behind the SNP in seats and therefore not called as much. And, in the 80's no-one took much notice of Northern Irish parties. The Unionists especially were much more interested in fighting among themselves.0 -
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In fairness to Vince, given Brexit, Tory leadership race (ongoing) and Corbyn there really isn't much political space for anything else. Whilst I don't doubt he could be better I think even a far better leader would be struggling for attention. They are behind the SNP which is another party to take up news space and now we have the shiny new Tiggers as well.
He also didn't exactly stand in the way of others but got the job from a lack of competition. He can be criticised and he could have done better but I don't think Vince is that much to blame for the Lib Dems problems, at least his current leadership from 2017.0 -
For once I agree with Druncker:Scott_P said:
But EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker claimed he has “something like a Brexit fatigue” and said he is “not very optimistic” that MPs will pass the new deal.
He added: “In the British parliament, every time they are voting, there is a majority against something, there is no majority in favour of something."
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'When in doubt, march towards the sound of gunfire!' Jo Grimond.TheJezziah said:In fairness to Vince, given Brexit, Tory leadership race (ongoing) and Corbyn there really isn't much political space for anything else. Whilst I don't doubt he could be better I think even a far better leader would be struggling for attention. They are behind the SNP which is another party to take up news space and now we have the shiny new Tiggers as well.
He also didn't exactly stand in the way of others but got the job from a lack of competition. He can be criticised and he could have done better but I don't think Vince is that much to blame for the Lib Dems problems, at least his current leadership from 2017.0 -
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When it snaps which side does she grasp for?Scott_P said:0 -
Good morning, everyone.
F1: first test ended yesterday, the second is 26 February to 1 March. Then it's a fortnight to the first race weekend.
Not sure I read too much into anything early on, to be honest.0 -
People are a lot more negative about politics generally, nowadays. And the news cycle is such that some of us are getting bored already (see upthread), whereas in 1981 we'd still be looking forward to the Sunday papers for the first heavyweight analysis.OldKingCole said:Good morning everyone. Misty here, but you wouldn't call it foggy. Not when compared to the fogs of the 50's and 60's.
And, in reminiscent mood, the Tiggers don't seem to resonate with the public the same way that the SDP did; something about their leadership I suspect.
Of course the Lib leadership was much more high profile then than the LibDem leadership is now.0 -
Not quite. There's a crucial difference in the way the transfers work.Philip_Thompson said:
The vote is on a two preference AV basis. People could vote TIG 1st and LD 2nd.Quincel said:Wait, I just realised. TIG can just say they aren't running for Mayor of London as part of their agreement to try not to clash with the LDs. Save the money (and save face potentially). It's the easier way out, so they'll probably take it.
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With added bounce?HYUFD said:
Indeed, Eppoing is historic rural EssexSunil_Prasannan said:
Epping station riginally opened by the GER on an extension from Loughton to Ongar in 1865. Became part of the Central line in 1949. Epping to Ongar closed in 1994 but reopened as a heritage railway in 2012.HYUFD said:
Epping is an Essex rural market down that just happens to be at the end of the Central line for convenienceEndillion said:
You know what? I'm going in.Endillion said:
I flipping knew that was going to happen, and all.HYUFD said:
Correct but Epping is NOT East LondonEndillion said:Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.
If it's on the Tube, it's part of London.
At any rate it's more London than Ilford is.
Good night!0 -
Two observations:rcs1000 said:
Yes, that's very much my view.notme2 said:Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)0 -
I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.Charles said:
Two observations:rcs1000 said:
Yes, that's very much my view.notme2 said:Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
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NO!rcs1000 said:
Bah?viewcode said:
Naah. Amersham (Buckinghamshire) on the Tube. Proper Lahndahners don't think it's London unless it's within the North Circular RoadEndillion said:...If it's on the Tube, it's part of London...
Really, you think Hampstead Garden suburb is in London???
London is bordered by the zoo to the North, the river to the South, Brick Lane to the East, and Shepard's Bush Empire to the West.
Outside that, it's suburbia.
It’s North of the River, South of the Park
The zoo is in a patch of countryside that is near London
(Basically London = zone 1)0 -
Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.HYUFD said:
Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIGanother_richard said:
Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.HYUFD said:
I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seatsanother_richard said:
This is what you said:HYUFD said:
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?another_richard said:
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White OtherHYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in NorthSunil_Prasannan said:
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
By comparison in the 2001 census:
Ilford North 76% White
Ilford South 45% White
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.HYUFD said:
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.0 -
0
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I think it’s very likely that her family is receiving free legal advice from political opponents of the Government and/or pro-migration advocates and charities.Charles said:
Two observations:rcs1000 said:
Yes, that's very much my view.notme2 said:Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
This isn’t really about her anymore.0 -
WTF?Jonathan said:
I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.Charles said:
Two observations:rcs1000 said:
Yes, that's very much my view.notme2 said:Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
I made a couple of observations, deliberately without stating a view, and I get personally abused?
FWIW: the Christian view is that without repentance there is no forgiveness. She’s shown no remorse, so I assume she hasn’t repented.0 -
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And her husband, the Dutch national couldn’t be refused.Charles said:
Two observations:rcs1000 said:
Yes, that's very much my view.notme2 said:Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
0 -
I don’t think Greening, Grieve or Lee are going. The Conservatives responded to the defections tactfully, and have reached out and have plugged the leak.Scott_P said:
For now.0 -
What - to start a Crusade to free the Holy Lands of ISIS?Jonathan said:
I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.Charles said:
Two observations:rcs1000 said:
Yes, that's very much my view.notme2 said:Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)0 -
Which random thought may well be the seed that led to them thinking of fighting other seats.Quincel said:
On that note: Maybe Umunna would be better off contesting Vauxhall than Streatham?Pulpstar said:
Khan gets the tribal Labour vote in this scenario. In London, that's pretty deep in places; Kate Hoey/ Vauxhall is proof of that particular puddingQuincel said:
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.HYUFD said:
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for himQuincel said:Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
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Ye without sin.Charles said:
WTF?Jonathan said:
I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.Charles said:
Two observations:rcs1000 said:
Yes, that's very much my view.notme2 said:Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
I made a couple of observations, deliberately without stating a view, and I get personally abused?
FWIW: the Christian view is that without repentance there is no forgiveness. She’s shown no remorse, so I assume she hasn’t repented.0 -
In 1982, when Jenkins finally found a seat that offered him a chance of entering the commons after a year of looking, he was campaigning in Hillhead. He saw a Sikh gentleman, and approached him:IanB2 said:Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
Jenkins: 'Tell me, how long have you been here?'
Sikh gentleman: 'A lot longer than you.'0
