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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    notme2 said:

    Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.

    It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...

    Yes, that's very much my view.

    The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
    Two observations:

    It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.

    Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
    I think it’s very likely that her family is receiving free legal advice from political opponents of the Government and/or pro-migration advocates and charities.

    This isn’t really about her anymore.
    Almost certainly
  • One is forced to the conclusion that the ERG don't actually want to leave the EU - just complain about being in it.....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    notme2 said:

    Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.

    It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...

    Yes, that's very much my view.

    The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
    Two observations:

    It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.

    Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
    I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.
    WTF?

    I made a couple of observations, deliberately without stating a view, and I get personally abused?

    FWIW: the Christian view is that without repentance there is no forgiveness. She’s shown no remorse, so I assume she hasn’t repented.
    Where is the abuse? I am simply surprised at the brutal line that you’re taking.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    notme2 said:

    Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.

    It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...

    Yes, that's very much my view.

    The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
    Two observations:

    It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.

    Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
    I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.
    WTF?

    I made a couple of observations, deliberately without stating a view, and I get personally abused?

    FWIW: the Christian view is that without repentance there is no forgiveness. She’s shown no remorse, so I assume she hasn’t repented.
    Ye without sin.
    That quote refers to compassion not forgiveness.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.

    A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for him
    Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.
    Khan gets the tribal Labour vote in this scenario. In London, that's pretty deep in places; Kate Hoey/ Vauxhall is proof of that particular pudding
    On that note: Maybe Umunna would be better off contesting Vauxhall than Streatham?
    As Kate Hoey lost a no confidence vote very badly there must be a decent chance she isn't the Labour candidate next time, there is also a chance Brexit isn't the issue it is now by the time we reach an election.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    notme2 said:

    Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.

    It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...

    Yes, that's very much my view.

    The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
    Two observations:

    It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.

    Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
    I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.
    WTF?

    I made a couple of observations, deliberately without stating a view, and I get personally abused?

    FWIW: the Christian view is that without repentance there is no forgiveness. She’s shown no remorse, so I assume she hasn’t repented.
    Where is the abuse? I am simply surprised at the brutal line that you’re taking.
    Saying a Christian is behaving in an unChristian fashion could be construed as rather abusive, couldn't it?

    It would be like saying an atheist is behaving like an Islamic fundamentalist.

    Well, unless the atheist in question was Richard Dawkins.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    notme2 said:

    Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.

    It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...

    Yes, that's very much my view.

    The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
    Two observations:

    It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.

    Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
    I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.
    WTF?

    I made a couple of observations, deliberately without stating a view, and I get personally abused?

    FWIW: the Christian view is that without repentance there is no forgiveness. She’s shown no remorse, so I assume she hasn’t repented.
    Where is the abuse? I am simply surprised at the brutal line that you’re taking.
    I didn’t take a line in the post you responded to. I made some observations.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited February 2019
    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    notme2 said:

    Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.

    It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...

    Yes, that's very much my view.

    The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
    Two observations:

    It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.

    Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
    I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.
    WTF?

    I made a couple of observations, deliberately without stating a view, and I get personally abused?

    FWIW: the Christian view is that without repentance there is no forgiveness. She’s shown no remorse, so I assume she hasn’t repented.
    Where is the abuse? I am simply surprised at the brutal line that you’re taking.
    As brutal as 'heads in dustbins' or 'Manchester was a retaliation?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,289
    My two thoughts on city limits:

    - If you can get to the largest centre by only traveling on 30 and 40 mph roads you are part of a metro area.
    - If you ask people who grew up in a place are you a Londoner / Manc / Brummie etc. and the majority say yes, then that place is in said city. It will generally follow that many will answer Londoner etc. unprompted.

    If Charles wants to reinstate Middlesex and draw all the surrounding counties in to bound a County London, that's a fairly personal prediliction, I would have thought.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    The one upside if May's Deal gets less votes than it did last time is that the deal will definitely be dead. And that then would leave only No Deal and Revoke on the agenda.

    And until someone does something or something occurs that reduces the available options down to just 2 (and it really doesn't matter what those 2 options are) this mess / deadlock will continue forever.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    All this pass the parcel discussion as to whether ourselves or Bangladesh should take the young lady in Syria (and her child) misses a bigger point. Bangladesh may not be considered vital to our global strategic interests but how many other countries are we going to piss off for domestic consuption? I wouldn’t risk a single penny, let alone life, bringing her here but if somehow she made it on her own surely the potential intelligence value, and the fact she’d be watched like a hawk for that part of the rest her life she were not in jail. together with showing the world we clean up the mess created here (and she was created here in all respects) makes it worthwhile.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited February 2019
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Jonathan said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    notme2 said:

    Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.

    It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...

    Yes, that's very much my view.

    The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
    Two observations:

    It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.

    Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
    I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.
    WTF?

    I made a couple of observations, deliberately without stating a view, and I get personally abused?

    FWIW: the Christian view is that without repentance there is no forgiveness. She’s shown no remorse, so I assume she hasn’t repented.
    Ye without sin.
    That quote refers to compassion not forgiveness.
    If you are sin free then cast those stones. I don't know that the woman* in the story repented, the Jesus I read about would have stood up regardless.

    *Bible story woman just to clarify.
  • Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Endillion said:

    ...If it's on the Tube, it's part of London...

    Naah. Amersham (Buckinghamshire) on the Tube. Proper Lahndahners don't think it's London unless it's within the North Circular Road

    Bah?

    Really, you think Hampstead Garden suburb is in London???

    London is bordered by the zoo to the North, the river to the South, Brick Lane to the East, and Shepard's Bush Empire to the West.

    Outside that, it's suburbia.
    NO!

    It’s North of the River, South of the Park

    The zoo is in a patch of countryside that is near London

    (Basically London = zone 1)
    South London is Proper London. North London only exists on Twitter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Pro_Rata said:

    My two thoughts on city limits:

    - If you can get to the largest centre by only traveling on 30 and 40 mph roads you are part of a metro area.
    - If you ask people who grew up in a place are you a Londoner / Manc / Brummie etc. and the majority say yes, then that place is in said city. It will generally follow that many will answer Londoner etc. unprompted.

    If Charles wants to reinstate Middlesex and draw all the surrounding counties in to bound a County London, that's a fairly personal prediliction, I would have thought.

    There was of course a London County as well as a Middlesex County from 1885 to 1965.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Pro_Rata said:

    My two thoughts on city limits:

    - If you can get to the largest centre by only traveling on 30 and 40 mph roads you are part of a metro area.
    - If you ask people who grew up in a place are you a Londoner / Manc / Brummie etc. and the majority say yes, then that place is in said city. It will generally follow that many will answer Londoner etc. unprompted.

    If Charles wants to reinstate Middlesex and draw all the surrounding counties in to bound a County London, that's a fairly personal prediliction, I would have thought.

    A bit tough on those living in 20mph zones.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    My two thoughts on city limits:

    - If you can get to the largest centre by only traveling on 30 and 40 mph roads you are part of a metro area.
    - If you ask people who grew up in a place are you a Londoner / Manc / Brummie etc. and the majority say yes, then that place is in said city. It will generally follow that many will answer Londoner etc. unprompted.

    If Charles wants to reinstate Middlesex and draw all the surrounding counties in to bound a County London, that's a fairly personal prediliction, I would have thought.

    A bit tough on those living in 20mph zones.
    That's the countryside every time a fecking tractor pulls out ahead of you.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Pro_Rata said:

    My two thoughts on city limits:

    - If you can get to the largest centre by only traveling on 30 and 40 mph roads you are part of a metro area.
    - If you ask people who grew up in a place are you a Londoner / Manc / Brummie etc. and the majority say yes, then that place is in said city. It will generally follow that many will answer Londoner etc. unprompted.

    If Charles wants to reinstate Middlesex and draw all the surrounding counties in to bound a County London, that's a fairly personal prediliction, I would have thought.

    Surely it is Brexit policy to return to pre-1965 boundaries, if not pre-1889.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.

    In 1982, when Jenkins finally found a seat that offered him a chance of entering the commons after a year of looking, he was campaigning in Hillhead. He saw a Sikh gentleman, and approached him:

    Jenkins: 'Tell me, how long have you been here?'
    Sikh gentleman: 'A lot longer than you.'
    Funny it's always Sikh gentleman with the riposte. I was accompanying Prince Philip who marched up to a Sikh gentleman in the crowd and asked him 'Tell me, when did you come here?' only to get the reply "Nine o'clock this morning, sir". True story.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    On topic - I think Luciana Berger would have a very decent shot of winning if she stood in Hendon or Bury.

    Not in Hendon. The line used will be that a vote for anyone other than the Tories risks a Corbyn government. If she stands here, she just splits the Labour vote - there aren't enough Lib Dems to matter.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sabres rattling from both sides. Both have seen how it’s works as the twattersphere clutches it’s pearls and claims it’s the end of days.

    Keep calm and carry on. Like Mrs May.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279
    DougSeal said:

    All this pass the parcel discussion as to whether ourselves or Bangladesh should take the young lady in Syria (and her child) misses a bigger point. Bangladesh may not be considered vital to our global strategic interests but how many other countries are we going to piss off for domestic consuption? I wouldn’t risk a single penny, let alone life, bringing her here but if somehow she made it on her own surely the potential intelligence value, and the fact she’d be watched like a hawk for that part of the rest her life she were not in jail. together with showing the world we clean up the mess created here (and she was created here in all respects) makes it worthwhile.

    Agreed.
    The arrogance and irresponsibility of expecting Bangladesh to pick up our mess is not edifying.
    I too would rather we didn't have to deal with her, but if whatever passes for the authorities, in the bit of Syria where she is held, decide to let her go, then I do not see any alternative.
  • Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    notme2 said:

    Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.

    It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...

    Yes, that's very much my view.

    The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
    Two observations:

    It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.

    Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
    I think it’s very likely that her family is receiving free legal advice from political opponents of the Government and/or pro-migration advocates and charities.

    This isn’t really about her anymore.

    The family letter is well drafted:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-47326715
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,289
    IanB2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    My two thoughts on city limits:

    - If you can get to the largest centre by only traveling on 30 and 40 mph roads you are part of a metro area.
    - If you ask people who grew up in a place are you a Londoner / Manc / Brummie etc. and the majority say yes, then that place is in said city. It will generally follow that many will answer Londoner etc. unprompted.

    If Charles wants to reinstate Middlesex and draw all the surrounding counties in to bound a County London, that's a fairly personal prediliction, I would have thought.

    A bit tough on those living in 20mph zones.
    Ah, an oasis of calm, gently lapped by speed humps.

    Fair point.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Scott_P said:
    Tell you one thing I’ve noticed lately. Boris has largely shut up about Brexit and become very big on wildlife conservation. Anyone else seen that?
  • Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    All this pass the parcel discussion as to whether ourselves or Bangladesh should take the young lady in Syria (and her child) misses a bigger point. Bangladesh may not be considered vital to our global strategic interests but how many other countries are we going to piss off for domestic consuption? I wouldn’t risk a single penny, let alone life, bringing her here but if somehow she made it on her own surely the potential intelligence value, and the fact she’d be watched like a hawk for that part of the rest her life she were not in jail. together with showing the world we clean up the mess created here (and she was created here in all respects) makes it worthwhile.

    The arrogance and irresponsibility of expecting Bangladesh to pick up our mess is not edifying.
    Where has the government said that? All they've said is that we can remove her British citizenship because she's entitled to Bangaladesh citizenship. She can stay in Syria as she went there of her own accord. Or apply for refugee status in Turkey if she doesn't want to. Of course she may face trial because of her actions - but the arrogance lies in thinking we should repatriate potential British criminals and try them in Britain for crimes they may have committed in other countries.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    eek said:

    The one upside if May's Deal gets less votes than it did last time is that the deal will definitely be dead. And that then would leave only No Deal and Revoke on the agenda.

    And until someone does something or something occurs that reduces the available options down to just 2 (and it really doesn't matter what those 2 options are) this mess / deadlock will continue forever.
    No, permanent Customs Union would also be an option and with more Commons support than No Deal or revoke, certainly without a referendum
  • One is forced to the conclusion that the ERG don't actually want to leave the EU - just complain about being in it.....
    Alternatively when they said they opposed being permanently trapped in the EU via the backstop they meant it and weren't bluffing.

    If May doesn't get any amendments to the WA to satisfy those who've been crystal clear and consistent for about six months at least on this issue now then it is May's fault as PM that she has failed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_P said:
    Tell you one thing I’ve noticed lately. Boris has largely shut up about Brexit and become very big on wildlife conservation. Anyone else seen that?
    Boris has disappeared, for sure. Maybe he hopes people will forget.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.

    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
    Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other
    Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/

    By comparison in the 2001 census:

    Ilford North 76% White
    Ilford South 45% White

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
    So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
    This is what you said:
    HYUFD said:


    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North

    Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
    I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seats
    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.
    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    AndyJS said:

    Endillion said:

    Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.

    Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.

    And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.

    I love this place.

    If you want to witness 100 blokes talking about electoral boundaries you can always check out the VoteUK discussion forum.
    I do want that.
  • One is forced to the conclusion that the ERG don't actually want to leave the EU - just complain about being in it.....
    If May doesn't get any amendments to the WA to satisfy those who've been crystal clear and consistent for about six months at least on this issue now then it is May's fault as PM that she has failed.
    It's May's fault that the other party won't accede to what they may see as egregious demands?
  • HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.

    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
    Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other
    Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/

    By comparison in the 2001 census:

    Ilford North 76% White
    Ilford South 45% White

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
    So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
    This is what you said:
    HYUFD said:


    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North

    Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
    I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seats
    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.
    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
    Except the choice won't be between Gapes and a Corbynista. The choice will be between Gapes, a Corbynista and a Tory at the very least.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.

    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
    Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other
    Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/

    By comparison in the 2001 census:

    Ilford North 76% White
    Ilford South 45% White

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
    So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
    This is what you said:
    HYUFD said:


    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North

    Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
    I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seats
    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.
    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
    A tactical vote isn't a personal vote.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    DougSeal said:

    Scott_P said:
    Tell you one thing I’ve noticed lately. Boris has largely shut up about Brexit and become very big on wildlife conservation. Anyone else seen that?
    Perhaps his current political situation has given him a new sympathy for endangered species.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    JohnLoony said:

    The comparison with the SDP is silly and unrealistic. The SDP had coherent philosophy and binding policies. TIG is an incoherent rag-bag of malcontents who have nothing in common apart from (a) disliking their fomer party leaders (b) disliking Brexit. Assuming that the next general election is in 2022, Brexit will be sorted by then an there will be nothing to hold TIG together. I think that most of them will not stand for re-election, and the rest will get derisory votes. Depending on who the two main party leaders are in 2020-21-22, some of them might go back to their former parties.

    The harder the Brexit the better TIG will do, the fact TIG is already polling 14% within a week of foundation in one poll shows it clearly has a base
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.

    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
    Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other
    Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/

    By comparison in the 2001 census:

    Ilford North 76% White
    Ilford South 45% White

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
    So even then over a 14 year period Ilford Sohe Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
    This is what you said:
    HYUFD said:


    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North

    Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
    I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seats
    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.
    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
    Except the choice won't be between Gapes and a Corbynista. The choice will be between Gapes, a Corbynista and a Tory at the very least.
    Given Gapes had a majority of 31,000 over the Tory last time in reality the choice will be between Gapes and a Corbynista.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,279

    Nigelb said:

    DougSeal said:

    All this pass the parcel discussion as to whether ourselves or Bangladesh should take the young lady in Syria (and her child) misses a bigger point. Bangladesh may not be considered vital to our global strategic interests but how many other countries are we going to piss off for domestic consuption? I wouldn’t risk a single penny, let alone life, bringing her here but if somehow she made it on her own surely the potential intelligence value, and the fact she’d be watched like a hawk for that part of the rest her life she were not in jail. together with showing the world we clean up the mess created here (and she was created here in all respects) makes it worthwhile.

    The arrogance and irresponsibility of expecting Bangladesh to pick up our mess is not edifying.
    Where has the government said that? All they've said is that we can remove her British citizenship because she's entitled to Bangaladesh citizenship. She can stay in Syria as she went there of her own accord. Or apply for refugee status in Turkey if she doesn't want to. Of course she may face trial because of her actions - but the arrogance lies in thinking we should repatriate potential British criminals and try them in Britain for crimes they may have committed in other countries.
    Sophistry, when we're discussing removal of her citizenship.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    FFS May the deal will not get through. Referendum, capitulate to Labour or accept all those resignations over no deal, now.

    It is impressive how unpopular the deal still is from both sides, and how even now so few (any?) Have switched to back it since the last vote.

    Please can someone defect to distract from this idiocy?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.

    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
    Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other
    Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/

    By comparison in the 2001 census:

    Ilford North 76% White
    Ilford South 45% White

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
    So even then over a 14 year pervote rose by 5% over that period?
    This is what you said:
    HYUFD said:


    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North

    Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
    I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seats
    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.
    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
    A tactical vote isn't a personal vote.
    It is if that person more closely matches your beliefs than their main rival
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2019

    One is forced to the conclusion that the ERG don't actually want to leave the EU - just complain about being in it.....
    If May doesn't get any amendments to the WA to satisfy those who've been crystal clear and consistent for about six months at least on this issue now then it is May's fault as PM that she has failed.
    It's May's fault that the other party won't accede to what they may see as egregious demands?
    Yes.

    I see the backstop as an egregious demand and I'm not the only one. May knew that before she acceded to it. Many had resigned over the issue this isn't a shock.

    [To be clear she knew her own MPs opinion of it, she doesn't know or care who I am]
  • Roger will be devastated.....Hartlepool doesn't make it into the top (or is that bottom) 10....

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8483147/peterborough-named-worst-place-live-england/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited February 2019
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.

    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North


    By comparison in the 2001 census:

    Ilford North 76% White
    Ilford South 45% White

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
    So even then over a 14 year pervote rose by 5% over that period?
    This is what you said:
    HYUFD said:


    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North

    Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
    I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seats
    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.
    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
    A tactical vote isn't a personal vote.
    It is if that person more closely matches your beliefs than their main rival
    Sorry, but no. A Tory who votes for an Independent over Labour rather than voting for a third place Tory isn't a personal vote. I don't believe anyone else would see it so. Not least from the foregoing description, which doesn't rest on who the TIG candidate is.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Scott_P said:
    For once I agree with Druncker:

    But EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker claimed he has “something like a Brexit fatigue” and said he is “not very optimistic” that MPs will pass the new deal.

    He added: “In the British parliament, every time they are voting, there is a majority against something, there is no majority in favour of something."
    It certainly has sobered him up. Mps are pathetic, it's unforgivable that they still cannot coalesce around anything.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    For once I agree with Druncker:

    But EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker claimed he has “something like a Brexit fatigue” and said he is “not very optimistic” that MPs will pass the new deal.

    He added: “In the British parliament, every time they are voting, there is a majority against something, there is no majority in favour of something."
    It certainly has sobered him up. Mps are pathetic, it's unforgivable that they still cannot coalesce around anything.
    They've coalesced around a deal minus a backstop. They voted for that on 29 January.

    If the EU would rather no deal and no backstop than a deal with no backstop then so be it.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.

    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
    Except the choice won't be between Gapes and a Corbynista. The choice will be between Gapes, a Corbynista and a Tory at the very least.
    I was going to deride this (as no Tory has a hope in Ilford South), but actually on reflection if Gapes does split the vote and the shine goes off Corbyn a bit then suddenly the Tory looks almost competitive again.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,626
    Scott_P said:
    They don't need to. The avalanche of No Deal continues to slide down the hill, without their greasing its path.....
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    FFS May the deal will not get through. Referendum, capitulate to Labour or accept all those resignations over no deal, now.

    It is impressive how unpopular the deal still is from both sides, and how even now so few (any?) Have switched to back it since the last vote.

    Please can someone defect to distract from this idiocy?
    Now that TIG have broken free, if the final outcome were that the deal was to be put to a referendum, that wouldn't seem like capitulating to Labour, but like both capitulating to TIG. I wonder whether that feels better or worse for Theresa May?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Scott_P said:
    They don't need to. The avalanche of No Deal continues to slide down the hill, without their greasing its path.....
    Yeah, because these big mouth politicians would always pass up the chance to spout off on national media just because they think they are winning....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Scott_P said:
    It's a pity for the ERG that may well mean a destroyed party AND no Brexit. They're really thick as planks!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Scott_P said:
    They don't need to. The avalanche of No Deal continues to slide down the hill, without their greasing its path.....
    No it's not. We're in deal or remain territory now. The Tiggers have taken no deal off the table.
  • MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    They don't need to. The avalanche of No Deal continues to slide down the hill, without their greasing its path.....
    No it's not. We're in deal or remain territory now. The Tiggers have taken no deal off the table.
    Remain would be better than this deal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Roger will be devastated.....Hartlepool doesn't make it into the top (or is that bottom) 10....

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8483147/peterborough-named-worst-place-live-england/

    I understand that Peterborough is such an unpleasant place people drive very fast to get away from it. Why, there was even a claim that some people drive very fast and then go all the way to Russia!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.

    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
    Except the choice won't be between Gapes and a Corbynista. The choice will be between Gapes, a Corbynista and a Tory at the very least.
    I was going to deride this (as no Tory has a hope in Ilford South), but actually on reflection if Gapes does split the vote and the shine goes off Corbyn a bit then suddenly the Tory looks almost competitive again.
    I think that is more likely in Luton South than Ilford South but we will see
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited February 2019
    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.

    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
    Except the choice won't be between Gapes and a Corbynista. The choice will be between Gapes, a Corbynista and a Tory at the very least.
    I was going to deride this (as no Tory has a hope in Ilford South), but actually on reflection if Gapes does split the vote and the shine goes off Corbyn a bit then suddenly the Tory looks almost competitive again.
    Not really. Labour is clear favourite given the demography of the seat (and making some assumptions about their likely candidate); indeed freed of the red rosette Gapes could easily hit the non-Labour vote more significantly than the Labour one. Particularly if he doesn't pull across a slice of the local councillors - which so far doesn't seem to be happening

    (tbf cllrs will wait until there's a party structure to join, and to see how bad it gets in Labour)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    Eventually Corbyns team will get there. Too many positives for them despite their personal preferences.
  • On topic, shadsy has apparently taken down his market on Streatham, which is a shame. If you got on Labour in that one, you could arb and middle by betting on TIG here. But I'd rather just bet on Labour taking Streatham.
  • Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.

    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
    Except the choice won't be between Gapes and a Corbynista. The choice will be between Gapes, a Corbynista and a Tory at the very least.
    I was going to deride this (as no Tory has a hope in Ilford South), but actually on reflection if Gapes does split the vote and the shine goes off Corbyn a bit then suddenly the Tory looks almost competitive again.
    Actually my point was that it doesn't matter if a Tory has a hope. Even if a Tory is a no hoper there will still be a candidate on the ballot paper and Tory voters don't really do tactical voting to a great extent. I don't believe "the vast majority" of Tories would vote for Gapes even if the Tories have no hope.
  • If Britain leaves the EU without a deal next month, Europe’s Brexit negotiators will not end talks but reset their clocks to a new cliff-edge date: April 18.

    After 20 days of likely disorder at ports, supermarkets and borders, the deadline will be Britain’s chance to avoid a more lasting rupture with its biggest trading partner — if it can stomach the price.

    By April 18, according to European Commission contingency plans, Britain must confirm whether to make around €7bn of net contributions to the EU’s budget for 2019. The first payments, which require House of Commons approval, are scheduled for April 30; EU negotiators say missing them will “ruin” relations.


    https://www.ft.com/content/738a995a-35ca-11e9-bd3a-8b2a211d90d5
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,199
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.

    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North


    By comparison in the 2001 census:

    Ilford North 76% White
    Ilford South 45% White

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
    So even then over a 14 year pervote rose by 5% over that period?
    This is what you said:
    HYUFD said:


    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North

    Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
    I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my poith seats
    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.
    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
    A tactical vote isn't a personal vote.
    It is if that person more closely matches your beliefs than their main rival
    Sorry, but no. A Tory who votes for an Independent over Labour rather than voting for a third place Tory isn't a personal vote. I don't believe anyone else would see it so. Not least from the foregoing description, which doesn't rest on who the TIG candidate is.
    Given in 1987 Ilford South was Tory and in 2017 had a 31 000 Gapes majority a fair few former Tories have already given him a personal vote anyway
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    They don't need to. The avalanche of No Deal continues to slide down the hill, without their greasing its path.....
    No it's not. We're in deal or remain territory now. The Tiggers have taken no deal off the table.
    Remain would be better than this deal.
    No it wouldn't. As you completely fail to understand time and again, this country can unilaterally leave the backstop if it turns out the EU are not acting in good faith with finding an acceptable accomodation on the NI border. At that point we will have 40-45 trade deals done and dusted and the damage of cutting off EU trade will have lessened quite significantly.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited February 2019
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.

    Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North


    By comparison in the 2001 census:

    Ilford North 76% White
    Ilford South 45% White

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
    So even then over a 14 year pervote rose by 5% over that period?
    This is what you said:
    HYUFD said:


    Statistics?h

    Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
    I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my poith seats
    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.
    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
    A tactical vote isn't a personal vote.
    It is if that person more closely matches your beliefs than their main rival
    Sorry, but no. A Tory who votes for an Independent over Labour rather than voting for a third place Tory isn't a personal vote. I don't believe anyone else would see it so. Not least from the foregoing description, which doesn't rest on who the TIG candidate is.
    Given in 1987 Ilford South was Tory and in 2017 had a 31 000 Gapes majority a fair few former Tories have already given him a personal vote anyway
    Difficult, as most of them are either dead or living in Essex.

    Edit/(or no longer Tories, as the Tories have driven them away with Brexit and the rest)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    They don't need to. The avalanche of No Deal continues to slide down the hill, without their greasing its path.....
    No it's not. We're in deal or remain territory now. The Tiggers have taken no deal off the table.
    Remain would be better than this deal.
    Yup - like I said - thick as planks and unforgivably time wasters.
  • Roger will be devastated.....Hartlepool doesn't make it into the top (or is that bottom) 10....

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8483147/peterborough-named-worst-place-live-england/

    If you look at the map, nine out of the ten worst places are on a line stretching from Lancashire to Yorkshire, so perhaps some cross-Pennine humour has wooshed over the Sun's head.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    For once I agree with Druncker:

    But EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker claimed he has “something like a Brexit fatigue” and said he is “not very optimistic” that MPs will pass the new deal.

    He added: “In the British parliament, every time they are voting, there is a majority against something, there is no majority in favour of something."
    It certainly has sobered him up. Mps are pathetic, it's unforgivable that they still cannot coalesce around anything.
    They've coalesced around a deal minus a backstop. They voted for that on 29 January.

    If the EU would rather no deal and no backstop than a deal with no backstop then so be it.
    That doesn't counter my point because they've no coalesced around no deal, and as you yourself have pointed out i believe there's nothing achieved by agreeing something the other side won't back.

    Parliament did vote as you say. But they didn't accept the consequences if that failed. If they had, there wouldn't be another vote to hold since they'd already agreed what to do if plan b failed.

    They didn't and haven't. Ergo they didn't really coalesce at all around a final option, just a negotiating position .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Roger will be devastated.....Hartlepool doesn't make it into the top (or is that bottom) 10....

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8483147/peterborough-named-worst-place-live-england/

    If you look at the map, nine out of the ten worst places are on a line stretching from Lancashire to Yorkshire, so perhaps some cross-Pennine humour has wooshed over the Sun's head.
    Heaven help us if they ever read Mr Dancer's posts and run stories about the invention of a space cannon which fires enormohaddocks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    They don't need to. The avalanche of No Deal continues to slide down the hill, without their greasing its path.....
    No it's not. We're in deal or remain territory now. The Tiggers have taken no deal off the table.
    Remain would be better than this deal.
    No it wouldn't. As you completely fail to understand time and again, this country can unilaterally leave the backstop if it turns out the EU are not acting in good faith with finding an acceptable accomodation on the NI border. At that point we will have 40-45 trade deals done and dusted and the damage of cutting off EU trade will have lessened quite significantly.
    The backstop is an excuse.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    For once I agree with Druncker:

    But EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker claimed he has “something like a Brexit fatigue” and said he is “not very optimistic” that MPs will pass the new deal.

    He added: “In the British parliament, every time they are voting, there is a majority against something, there is no majority in favour of something."
    It certainly has sobered him up. Mps are pathetic, it's unforgivable that they still cannot coalesce around anything.
    They've coalesced around a deal minus a backstop. They voted for that on 29 January.

    If the EU would rather no deal and no backstop than a deal with no backstop then so be it.
    That doesn't counter my point because they've no coalesced around no deal, and as you yourself have pointed out i believe there's nothing achieved by agreeing something the other side won't back.

    Parliament did vote as you say. But they didn't accept the consequences if that failed. If they had, there wouldn't be another vote to hold since they'd already agreed what to do if plan b failed.

    They didn't and haven't. Ergo they didn't really coalesce at all around a final option, just a negotiating position .
    More succinctly, their vote was ducking rather than making a choice.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    FFS May the deal will not get through. Referendum, capitulate to Labour or accept all those resignations over no deal, now.

    It is impressive how unpopular the deal still is from both sides, and how even now so few (any?) Have switched to back it since the last vote.

    Please can someone defect to distract from this idiocy?
    Patience! 11 were just the leading edge of the avalanche. Both parties are going to be utterly torn apart very shortly
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    They don't need to. The avalanche of No Deal continues to slide down the hill, without their greasing its path.....
    No it's not. We're in deal or remain territory now. The Tiggers have taken no deal off the table.
    Remain would be better than this deal.
    No it wouldn't. As you completely fail to understand time and again, this country can unilaterally leave the backstop if it turns out the EU are not acting in good faith with finding an acceptable accomodation on the NI border. At that point we will have 40-45 trade deals done and dusted and the damage of cutting off EU trade will have lessened quite significantly.
    You believe signing this deal is better as you have no intention of honouring it. Fair enough but I don't agree.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,732
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:
    They don't need to. The avalanche of No Deal continues to slide down the hill, without their greasing its path.....
    No it's not. We're in deal or remain territory now. The Tiggers have taken no deal off the table.
    Remain would be better than this deal.
    No it wouldn't. As you completely fail to understand time and again, this country can unilaterally leave the backstop if it turns out the EU are not acting in good faith with finding an acceptable accomodation on the NI border. At that point we will have 40-45 trade deals done and dusted and the damage of cutting off EU trade will have lessened quite significantly.
    Never mind the damage of cutting off EU trade (or the damage to our reputation from abrogating a treaty of this kind), what about the practicalities of it? Where will the administrative capacity come from to "take back control" of our customs territory without a viable border solution?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    For once I agree with Druncker:

    But EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker claimed he has “something like a Brexit fatigue” and said he is “not very optimistic” that MPs will pass the new deal.

    He added: “In the British parliament, every time they are voting, there is a majority against something, there is no majority in favour of something."
    It certainly has sobered him up. Mps are pathetic, it's unforgivable that they still cannot coalesce around anything.
    They've coalesced around a deal minus a backstop. They voted for that on 29 January.

    If the EU would rather no deal and no backstop than a deal with no backstop then so be it.
    That doesn't counter my point because they've no coalesced around no deal, and as you yourself have pointed out i believe there's nothing achieved by agreeing something the other side won't back.

    Parliament did vote as you say. But they didn't accept the consequences if that failed. If they had, there wouldn't be another vote to hold since they'd already agreed what to do if plan b failed.

    They didn't and haven't. Ergo they didn't really coalesce at all around a final option, just a negotiating position .
    More succinctly, their vote was ducking rather than making a choice.
    Succinctness is not my strong suit.
  • IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    For once I agree with Druncker:

    But EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker claimed he has “something like a Brexit fatigue” and said he is “not very optimistic” that MPs will pass the new deal.

    He added: “In the British parliament, every time they are voting, there is a majority against something, there is no majority in favour of something."
    It certainly has sobered him up. Mps are pathetic, it's unforgivable that they still cannot coalesce around anything.
    They've coalesced around a deal minus a backstop. They voted for that on 29 January.

    If the EU would rather no deal and no backstop than a deal with no backstop then so be it.
    That doesn't counter my point because they've no coalesced around no deal, and as you yourself have pointed out i believe there's nothing achieved by agreeing something the other side won't back.

    Parliament did vote as you say. But they didn't accept the consequences if that failed. If they had, there wouldn't be another vote to hold since they'd already agreed what to do if plan b failed.

    They didn't and haven't. Ergo they didn't really coalesce at all around a final option, just a negotiating position .
    More succinctly, their vote was ducking rather than making a choice.
    Mrs May is not the only can-kicker.....
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.

    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
    Except the choice won't be between Gapes and a Corbynista. The choice will be between Gapes, a Corbynista and a Tory at the very least.
    I was going to deride this (as no Tory has a hope in Ilford South), but actually on reflection if Gapes does split the vote and the shine goes off Corbyn a bit then suddenly the Tory looks almost competitive again.
    Actually my point was that it doesn't matter if a Tory has a hope. Even if a Tory is a no hoper there will still be a candidate on the ballot paper and Tory voters don't really do tactical voting to a great extent. I don't believe "the vast majority" of Tories would vote for Gapes even if the Tories have no hope.
    Tory voters have never had anyone to vote tactically for, except the odd Lib Dem and the occasional anti-SNP block vote. They do now. Except they don't, because the existence of TIG makes voting Tory make sense again.
  • NEW THREAD

  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Eventually Corbyns team will get there. Too many positives for them despite their personal preferences.
    Only when it is too late.

    Jezza is playing this. Slowly slowly inching towards a new vote, but too late to actually stop his beloved 'Tory Brexit'.

    Whether his followers will stomach this crap is another thing.

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    IanB2 said:

    Endillion said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:



    Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.

    Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
    Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.

    Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
    Given the choice between Gapes and a Corbynista the vast majority of Tories and LDs would vote for Gapes
    Except the choice won't be between Gapes and a Corbynista. The choice will be between Gapes, a Corbynista and a Tory at the very least.
    I was going to deride this (as no Tory has a hope in Ilford South), but actually on reflection if Gapes does split the vote and the shine goes off Corbyn a bit then suddenly the Tory looks almost competitive again.
    Not really. Labour is clear favourite given the demography of the seat (and making some assumptions about their likely candidate); indeed freed of the red rosette Gapes could easily hit the non-Labour vote more significantly than the Labour one. Particularly if he doesn't pull across a slice of the local councillors - which so far doesn't seem to be happening

    (tbf cllrs will wait until there's a party structure to join, and to see how bad it gets in Labour)
    Oh, it's certainly not likely. But it is at least now back in the realm of "plausible."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    FFS May the deal will not get through. Referendum, capitulate to Labour or accept all those resignations over no deal, now.

    It is impressive how unpopular the deal still is from both sides, and how even now so few (any?) Have switched to back it since the last vote.

    Please can someone defect to distract from this idiocy?
    Patience! 11 were just the leading edge of the avalanche. Both parties are going to be utterly torn apart very shortly
    Without a daily drip I'm afraid it'll stop and we'll get no more than a handful of others.

    If we are to press on with such a chaotic farce we should at least get the benefit of seeing politics realigned.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    NEW THREAD
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    This reductive London meme is tiresome.

    By 9am, London will be the London Stone at Cannon Street and a one inch radius around it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    If politicians want to give their support to innocent babies or young women who have suffered grievously or even use their discretion to bestow British citizenship, here are some people who would be genuinely grateful - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-world-has-let-down-yazidis-who-fled-isis-genocide-qdm5qp09x.

    Meanwhile those who aided and abetted their murderers, rapists and torturers should be put on trial over there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    For once I agree with Druncker:

    But EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker claimed he has “something like a Brexit fatigue” and said he is “not very optimistic” that MPs will pass the new deal.

    He added: “In the British parliament, every time they are voting, there is a majority against something, there is no majority in favour of something."
    It certainly has sobered him up. Mps are pathetic, it's unforgivable that they still cannot coalesce around anything.
    They've coalesced around a deal minus a backstop. They voted for that on 29 January.

    If the EU would rather no deal and no backstop than a deal with no backstop then so be it.
    That doesn't counter my point because they've no coalesced around no deal, and as you yourself have pointed out i believe there's nothing achieved by agreeing something the other side won't back.

    Parliament did vote as you say. But they didn't accept the consequences if that failed. If they had, there wouldn't be another vote to hold since they'd already agreed what to do if plan b failed.

    They didn't and haven't. Ergo they didn't really coalesce at all around a final option, just a negotiating position .
    More succinctly, their vote was ducking rather than making a choice.
    Succinctness is not my strong suit.
    Succinctly put ;)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742

    Roger will be devastated.....Hartlepool doesn't make it into the top (or is that bottom) 10....

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8483147/peterborough-named-worst-place-live-england/

    The website that it derives from does review Hartlepool though:

    https://www.ilivehere.co.uk/hartlepool-narrr-like-im-goin-oot-on-the-rob.html

    Indeed it has something to offend everyone!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Cyclefree said:

    If politicians want to give their support to innocent babies or young women who have suffered grievously or even use their discretion to bestow British citizenship, here are some people who would be genuinely grateful - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-world-has-let-down-yazidis-who-fled-isis-genocide-qdm5qp09x.

    Meanwhile those who aided and abetted their murderers, rapists and torturers should be put on trial over there.

    I agree with you. This reeks of 'playing the white man'. This girl together with others joined the Barbarians and was collectively responsible for destroying the lives and communities of people without a choice or a voice or an escape route. To now stand up and say 'I don't need to be part of this anymore I'm British' should be resisted anyway that's possible
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pro_Rata said:

    My two thoughts on city limits:

    - If you can get to the largest centre by only traveling on 30 and 40 mph roads you are part of a metro area.
    - If you ask people who grew up in a place are you a Londoner / Manc / Brummie etc. and the majority say yes, then that place is in said city. It will generally follow that many will answer Londoner etc. unprompted.

    If Charles wants to reinstate Middlesex and draw all the surrounding counties in to bound a County London, that's a fairly personal prediliction, I would have thought.

    I was quoting Oscar Wilde 😝
  • Nigelb said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Sunil

    Er, no. I think it’s hateful and vile.

    Hence why we shouldn’t dump her on another (allied) country that she has never even set foot in. We should do our own dirty work.

    She's in Syria
    ISIS did a lot of bad stuff in Syria
    Let her face Syrian justice
    And if they let her go ?
    If....

This discussion has been closed.