Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017
Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
Demographic changes.
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and Wanstead
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford South
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.
So what, the demographics are pretty similar across Redbridge, Gapes has had huge personal success in turning a Tory seat in 1987 into one with a 31,647 majority for Labour in 2017
This is a densely packed residential seat without of ethnically diverse east London.
Indeed.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
Excuse me?
What on earth has the fact Ilford South being slightly less desirable than Ilford North got to do with the fact Gapes has turned a 9,000 vote gap in Labour's favour between the Ilford seats in 1992 into a 22,000 vote gap in Labour's favour in 2017? Plus a rising ethnic population has affected both seats
There were boundary changes in 1997 which added Chadwell and Seven Kings to the Ilford South seat.
So? In 2015 Gapes increased the Labour vote by 14.6% in the seat, in 1997 by 13.5%
The point is that were those two wards removed and the seat restored to its 1992 boundaries , his 2017 majority would probably have been a fair bit smaller.
Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017
Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
Demographic changes.
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and Wanstead
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford South
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
Indeed.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
Excuse me?
What on earth has the faoth seats
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.
Rubbish, Ilford North has experienite in the 2011 census'
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
The Guardian has a comment on the question of Shamima Begum's Bangladeshi citizenship: But Najrul Khasru, a British-Bangladeshi barrister and part-time tribunal judge who has reviewed Bangladesh’s citizenship laws, told the Guardian he believed Begum was not a Bangladeshi citizen unless, at the time of her birth, her parents had registered her at the High Commission, which he said was very uncommon within the British-Bangladeshi community. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/21/what-is-the-truth-about-shamima-begums-citizenship-status
Although I am not a solicitor, his argument seems clearly incorrect to me.
The fact we - as a ostensibly civilised country - are even flirting with this sophistry is risible. This girl has never even set foot in Bangladesh. She was born, and made, in Britain. We should fucking deal with it.
She betrayed this country. She spat at us in the face. She f***ed off. she said that bombing the Manchester Arena was justified.
Thank you for that level-headed, intelligently argued and nuanced response.
Do you agree with her Islamist ideology, _Anazina_?
The Isis bride hates Britain . Hence Anzina supports her no matter anything else.
Lefty sectioning in action.
Except it is by no means just 'Lefties' who think this way. This is not about rights but about both personal and national responsibility.
Our national responsibility is to our nation. Letting back in to the nation people we have no legal obligation to let back in, who think the Manchester Arena bombing was justified, is not helping our nation.
Your problem Thomo is trial by media, thinking about a particular airhead individual and not the principles of security, ethics (and philosophy where you dump on others they now dump on you).
I was making the argument The result of losing tabs and control of IS members is less security at home and around the world, whilst the policy of alienation and grievance actually plays into the hands of extremists. Do you not see a bit of truth in that, when lead commissioner for countering extremism and anti terror experts say these things?
Despite that It’s hard to make an argument, to return them to treat them as British criminals and British terrorists when the Tory government is allowing 90% of the returning IS members to get off scot free.
Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
Demographic changes.
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and Wanstead
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford South
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.
So what, the demographics are pretty similar across Redbridge, Gapes has had huge personal success in turning a Tory seat in 1987 into one with a 31,647 majority for Labour in 2017
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
Indeed.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.
Rubbish, Ilford North has experienced demographic change as much as Ilford South, certainly on a relative basis, I should know I canvassed Ilford North in 2017 and half the houses I knocked had Asian voters
Okay lets put some actual vote numbers to your claims.
What personal vote do you think Gapes has ?
And for comparison purposes please give what personal vote you think nearby MPs have.
Anthony Wells again :
Ethnic split in Ilford North in 2011:
White British 44% Asian 33% White other 8% Black 8% Mixed 4% Other: 2%
Ethnic split in Ilford South in 2011:
Asian 57% White British 17% Black 11% White other 7% Mixed 4% Other: 3%
Chris Leslie has always struck me as someone who was seriously overpromoted and very lucky to have even found himself an MP. Very lightweight and is still finding it difficult to come to terms with Labour having elected a Leader such as Corbyn with the consequent collapse of his former hopes of advancement.
Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017
Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
Demographic changes.
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and Wanstead
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford South
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
Indeed.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
Excuse me?
What on earth has the faoth seats
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.
Rubbish, Ilford North has experienite in the 2011 census'
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Anthony Wells again :
Ethnic split in Ilford North in 2011:
White British 44% Asian 33% White other 8% Black 8% Mixed 4% Other: 2%
Ethnic split in Ilford South in 2011:
Asian 57% White British 17% Black 11% White other 7% Mixed 4% Other: 3%
Shami Shami Shami (as rod Liddle called her ) was once a ubiquitous figure on tv. As head of Liberty carved out a media profile as a fair minded and trustworthy arbitrator of that which is good and bad. And she traded this reputation by giving the Labour Party a clean bill of health on anti Semitism and rewarded by a seat in the lords.
It was so grubby and transactional. It was Kidscape level of fall from grace.
Tellingly she has been a loyalist cheerleader since, not even nuanced in her tribalism.
Chris Leslie has always struck me as someone who was seriously overpromoted and very lucky to have even found himself an MP. Very lightweight and is still finding it difficult to come to terms with Labour having elected a Leader such as Corbyn with the consequent collapse of his former hopes of advancement.
You are having a laugh right?
"seriously overpromoted."
With Jezza's Shad Cabinet as the role models?
Jeez, give me a break.
That is a non sequitur . I am not seeking to suggest the Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet provides a good benchmark at all - though Leslie is not a match for Mcdonnell - Starmer - Thornberry - or even Abbot - very unimpressed though I am by the latter.
Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
Demographic changes.
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and Wanstead
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford South
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
Indeed.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
Excuse me?
What on earth has the fact Ilford South being slightly less desirable than Ilford North got to do with the fact Gapes has turned a 9,000 vote gap in Labour's favour between the Ilford seats in 1992 into a 22,000 vote gap in Labour's favour in 2017? Plus a rising ethnic population has affected both seats
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.
Rubbish, Ilford Nor voters
Okay lets put some actual vote numbers to your claims.
What personal vote do you think Gapes has ?
And for comparison purposes please give what personal vote you think nearby MPs have.
There are 4 MPs in Redbridge IDS, Streeting, Gapes and Cryer.
IDS has increased his vote in Chingford and Woodford Green from 47.5% in 1997 to 49.1% in 2017.
Streeting has increased his vote in Ilford North from 43.9% in 2015 to 57.8% in 2017.
Cryer has increased his vote in Leyton and Wanstead from 43.6% in 2010 to 69.8% in 2017.
Gapes has increased his vote in Ilford South from 45.4% in 1992 to 75.8% in 2017, so he has the biggest personal vote of any MP in the area
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
Demographic changes.
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and Wanstead
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford South
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
Indeed.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
Excuse me?
What on earth has the faoth seats
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.
Rubbish, Ilford North has experienite in the 2011 census'
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
Your problem Thomo is trial by media, thinking about a particular airhead individual and not the principles of security, ethics (and philosophy where you dump on others they now dump on you).
I was making the argument The result of losing tabs and control of IS members is less security at home and around the world, whilst the policy of alienation and grievance actually plays into the hands of extremists. Do you not see a bit of truth in that, when lead commissioner for countering extremism and anti terror experts say these things?
Despite that It’s hard to make an argument, to return them to treat them as British criminals and British terrorists when the Tory government is allowing 90% of the returning IS members to get off scot free.
She's in Syria ISIS did a lot of bad stuff in Syria Let her face Syrian justice (whether Assad, Kurds, Opposition)
Mike Gapes doesn't have a hope in hell of holding Ilford South without the official "Labour" stamp next to his name. I agree with Sunil, they're voting "Labour" not "Gapes".. Anyone on this board could win Ilford South as the official Labour candidate !
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
Indeed.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
Excuse me?
What on earth has the fact Ilford South being slightly less desirable than Ilford North got to do with the fact Gapes has turned a 9,000 vote gap in Labour's favour between the Ilford seats in 1992 into a 22,000 vote gap in Labour's favour in 2017? Plus a rising ethnic population has affected both seats
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.
Rubbish, Ilford Nor voters
Okay lets put some actual vote numbers to your claims.
What personal vote do you think Gapes has ?
And for comparison purposes please give what personal vote you think nearby MPs have.
There are 4 MPs in Redbridge IDS, Streeting, Gapes and Cryer.
IDS has increased his vote in Chingford and Woodford Green from 47.5% in 1997 to 49.1% in 2017.
Streeting has increased his vote in Ilford North from 43.9% in 2015 to 57.8% in 2017.
Cryer has increased his vote in Leyton and Wanstead from 43.6% in 2010 to 69.8% in 2017.
Gapes has increased his vote in Ilford South from 45.4% in 1992 to 75.8% in 2017, so he has the biggest personal vote of any MP in the area
Stop the gibber and tell us how big you think Mike Gapes personal vote is.
I thought we'd been told on PB that the Allen and Soubry were certain of being re-elected ?
Yes, it was by an over-excitable LibDem.
Like I don't begrudge ManCity a bit of success now, because their supporters have suffered through so much, so I don't begrudge an over-excitable LibDem a little bit of bluffing about "shoo-ins".
You know, I know, and William Hill know that the number of TIGgers in next Parliament is most likely zero.
The fact we - as a ostensibly civilised country - are even flirting with this sophistry is risible. This girl has never even set foot in Bangladesh. She was born, and made, in Britain. We should fucking deal with it.
She betrayed this country. She took what we gave her and spat at us in the face. She f***ed off. She can live with her choices. We gave her education, healthcare, somewhere to live and she said that bombing the Manchester Arena was justified.
We owe her nothing. She's made her choice.
Yes. But let’s step back for a moment. She’s not a dual national. She was British born. Stripping her of her citizenship makes her stateless. Things like this can have ripples around the world.
The legal advice of the government say that she is a dual-national, in which case we can do this.
If she's not a dual-national then our courts should rectify that. She should be told that she is still a citizen and is welcome to return to the UK at any point and be charged with treason and face potential life in prison.
But if she is a dual-citizen I see no legal or ethical reason we shouldn't put our own country over this vile woman. Anyone who defends the Manchester Arena bombing and calls it justified is not welcome in this country as far as I'm concerned. I don't give a shit about her race, religion or politics - I do think that goes too far.
Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
No - if you're British-born you can be deprived of British citizenship only if you already have citizenship of another country.
It's only for those who are British by naturalisation that the "entitled to but not have" criterion comes into play.
Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
Demographic changes.
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and Wanstead
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford South
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
Indeed.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
Excuse me?
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.
Rubbish, Ilford Nor voters
Okay lets put some actual vote numbers to your claims.
What personal vote do you think Gapes has ?
And for comparison purposes please give what personal vote you think nearby MPs have.
There are 4 MPs in Redbridge IDS, Streeting, Gapes and Cryer.
IDS has increased his vote in Chingford and Woodford Green from 47.5% in 1997 to 49.1% in 2017.
Streeting has increased his vote in Ilford North from 43.9% in 2015 to 57.8% in 2017.
Cryer has increased his vote in Leyton and Wanstead from 43.6% in 2010 to 69.8% in 2017.
Gapes has increased his vote in Ilford South from 45.4% in 1992 to 75.8% in 2017, so he has the biggest personal vote of any MP in the area
Those figures prove little in the context of massive demographic changes and significant boundary revisions.It would be just as ridiculous as to suggest that the big increase in the Labour majority in Wallasey since 1992 implies a big personal vote for Angela Eagle.
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
Demographic changes.
Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and Wanstead
Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.
Nowhere near as safe as Ilford South
Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.
This is a densely packed residential seaat part of ethnically diverse east London.
Indeed.
How the Epping Forest based Hyufd doesn't know this is mystifying.
Makes me wonder what century CCHQ is using for its data.
Excuse me?
What on earth has the faoth seats
As Sunil has explained Gapes hasn't done it but changing demographics have.
Rubbish, Ilford North has experienite in the 2011 census'
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
Chris Leslie has always struck me as someone who was seriously overpromoted and very lucky to have even found himself an MP. Very lightweight and is still finding it difficult to come to terms with Labour having elected a Leader such as Corbyn with the consequent collapse of his former hopes of advancement.
You are having a laugh right?
"seriously overpromoted."
With Jezza's Shad Cabinet as the role models?
Jeez, give me a break.
That is a non sequitur . I am not seeking to suggest the Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet provides a good benchmark at all - though Leslie is not a match for Mcdonnell - Starmer - Thornberry - or even Abbot - very unimpressed though I am by the latter.
I largely agree. It’s always struck me Leslie and chuck have sanguine personalities not really suited to front line politics. If you think of them as footballers, just too easy to wind them up. Whenever they got shirty with interviewers i always found it awkward, not what you are looking for from politicians.
For evidence, how Chuck stormed off Murnaghan In comparison how Thornberry laughed off being pub quizzed.
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
Anthony Wells again :
Ethnic split in Ilford North in 2011:
White British 44% Asian 33% White other 8% Black 8% Mixed 4% Other: 2%
Ethnic split in Ilford South in 2011:
Asian 57% White British 17% Black 11% White other 7% Mixed 4% Other: 3%
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
To put HYUFD's stubborness into context during the 2017GE he repeatedly claimed that ending Winter Fuel Allowance in England but keeping it in Scotland was going to be a vote winner ... in England.
And when after the 2017GE the Conservatives dropped the WFA plan he changed his tune with an ease which an Oceania orator would admire.
Hmm I'm going to swerve the bet as it is restricted to the above, and perhaps only Wollaston has a chance or Allen... One potential Labour Tigger that could hold is Ian Murray
To put HYUFD's stubborness into context during the 2017GE he repeatedly claimed that ending Winter Fuel Allowance in England but keeping it in Scotland was going to be a vote winner ... in England.
And when after the 2017GE the Conservatives dropped the WFA plan he changed his tune with an ease which an Oceania orator would admire.
No I did not however I did argue Scottish Tories could do their own thing and of course the Tory voteshare did rise in England and the Tories gained seats in Scotland.
Hmm I'm going to swerve the bet as it is restricted to the above, and perhaps only Wollaston has a chance or Allen... One potential Labour Tigger that could hold is Ian Murray
Indeed.
In Scotland its all about concentrating the Unionist vote.
And a Corbyn Labour candidate would likely struggle with that.
The New Jersey Senate has passed a bill preventing anyone being on the ballot for President (or VP) in the state unless they release their last 5 tax returns. The bill now goes to the Democrat governor for approval, the Republican governor (Chris Christie) vetoed the same bill in 2017.
Apparently the same thing was vetoed by a Democrat governor in California in 2017 too.
I must say, this seems like a very slippery slope to inviting red and blue states to pass more and more restrictions and endless cases in the courts as to where the constitutional line is drawn. Like the battle in the Deep South to make abortion clinics impossible through new hoops to jump through, but for the highest office in the land.
Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
What angle do they run against Sadiq with.
I) He isn't an antisemite II) He loves the EU.
Along with the official Labour stamp and incumbency, it makes Sadiq almost invincible !
Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for him
Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
What angle do they run against Sadiq with.
I) He isn't an antisemite II) He loves the EU.
Along with the official Labour stamp and incumbency, it makes Sadiq almost invincible !
I agree. But let's say they are a fully fledged national party by the end of the summer. Can they really not run a candidate? I guess it would be a great example of doing politics less tribally.
Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for him
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.
Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for him
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.
Pretty much, May probably similar feelings but against Khan more
The Guardian has a comment on the question of Shamima Begum's Bangladeshi citizenship: But Najrul Khasru, a British-Bangladeshi barrister and part-time tribunal judge who has reviewed Bangladesh’s citizenship laws, told the Guardian he believed Begum was not a Bangladeshi citizen unless, at the time of her birth, her parents had registered her at the High Commission, which he said was very uncommon within the British-Bangladeshi community. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/feb/21/what-is-the-truth-about-shamima-begums-citizenship-status
Although I am not a solicitor, his argument seems clearly incorrect to me.
The fact we - as a ostensibly civilised country - are even flirting with this sophistry is risible. This girl has never even set foot in Bangladesh. She was born, and made, in Britain. We should fucking deal with it.
Trump and Javid had sensible, long term forward thinking policy’s to deal with surrendering IS members several weeks ago, but the politicians backbones couldn’t face down media and public disgust at the idea of returning them from where they came to be dealt with as criminals. The result of losing tabs and control of IS members is less security at home and around the world, whilst the policy of alienation and grievance actually plays into the hands of extremists.
However, i am beginning to change my mind. there is another powerful angle on it. The strongest argument of all not to bring them home to face the music is Only one in 10 jihadists returning from Syria to the UK have been prosecuted by the British Government.
It’s hard to make an argument, such as Corbyn is trying is trying to do, and you anazina to treat them as British criminals and British terrorists when the government is allowing 90% of the returning IS members to get off scot free.
Technically, only one-in-10 have yet been prosecuted by the UK government.
That might split into:
3 insufficient evidence 3 helping the authorities with their enquiries 3 pending prosecution 1 actually prosecuted
We don't actually know the split - we only know the number of cases that have so far resulted in a prosecution. Given the delays in our legal system (see The Secret Barrister's book), it's probably too early to draw too many conclusions.
And surely, irrespective, the right thing for the government to be doing is bringing sensible primary legislation regarding what constitutes treasonous behaviour, and making sure that the evidential requirements are appropriate.
Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for him
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.
Khan gets the tribal Labour vote in this scenario. In London, that's pretty deep in places; Kate Hoey/ Vauxhall is proof of that particular pudding
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seats
Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for him
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.
Khan gets the tribal Labour vote in this scenario. In London, that's pretty deep in places; Kate Hoey/ Vauxhall is proof of that particular pudding
For sure, and Corbyn would obviously endorse him. But I suspect Corbyn's view of tribes within Labour is much starker than almost anyone else in the country. And Khan has quite overtly been outside his for a while. My guess is that he hates him but recognises he needs to work with him. Like Starmer but it's even worse because Khan has the freedom of City Hall to act far more independently.
Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for him
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.
Khan gets the tribal Labour vote in this scenario. In London, that's pretty deep in places; Kate Hoey/ Vauxhall is proof of that particular pudding
On that note: Maybe Umunna would be better off contesting Vauxhall than Streatham?
Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for him
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.
Khan gets the tribal Labour vote in this scenario. In London, that's pretty deep in places; Kate Hoey/ Vauxhall is proof of that particular pudding
If he does not get over 50% in round 1 though Umunna gets it through preferences
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seats
Wells: "[Ilford South] resembles its neighbour East Ham more than it does Ilford North".
Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
Yes, that's very much my view.
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
To put HYUFD's stubborness into context during the 2017GE he repeatedly claimed that ending Winter Fuel Allowance in England but keeping it in Scotland was going to be a vote winner ... in England.
And when after the 2017GE the Conservatives dropped the WFA plan he changed his tune with an ease which an Oceania orator would admire.
No I did not however I did argue Scottish Tories could do their own thing and of course the Tory voteshare did rise in England and the Tories gained seats in Scotland.
You repeatedly refused to accept that the 2017 Conservative manifesto wasn't the vote winner you claimed it was.
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seats
Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.
Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.
Correct but Epping is NOT East London
I flipping knew that was going to happen, and all.
You know what? I'm going in.
If it's on the Tube, it's part of London.
At any rate it's more London than Ilford is.
Good night!
Epping is an Essex rural market down that just happens to be at the end of the Central line for convenience
Epping station riginally opened by the GER on an extension from Loughton to Ongar in 1865. Became part of the Central line in 1949. Epping to Ongar closed in 1994 but reopened as a heritage railway in 2012.
To put HYUFD's stubborness into context during the 2017GE he repeatedly claimed that ending Winter Fuel Allowance in England but keeping it in Scotland was going to be a vote winner ... in England.
And when after the 2017GE the Conservatives dropped the WFA plan he changed his tune with an ease which an Oceania orator would admire.
No I did not however I did argue Scottish Tories could do their own thing and of course the Tory voteshare did rise in England and the Tories gained seats in Scotland.
You repeatedly refused to accept that the 2017 Conservative manifesto wasn't the vote winner you claimed it was.
The 2017 Conservative manifesto did get the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 and no I never supported the dementia tax
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seats
Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.
Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.
Correct but Epping is NOT East London
I flipping knew that was going to happen, and all.
You know what? I'm going in.
If it's on the Tube, it's part of London.
At any rate it's more London than Ilford is.
Good night!
Epping is an Essex rural market down that just happens to be at the end of the Central line for convenience
Epping station riginally opened by the GER on an extension from Loughton to Ongar in 1865. Became part of the Central line in 1949. Epping to Ongar closed in 1994 but reopened as a heritage railway in 2012.
Wait, I just realised. TIG can just say they aren't running for Mayor of London as part of their agreement to try not to clash with the LDs. Save the money (and save face potentially). It's the easier way out, so they'll probably take it.
Wait, I just realised. TIG can just say they aren't running for Mayor of London as part of their agreement to try not to clash with the LDs. Save the money (and save face potentially). It's the easier way out, so they'll probably take it.
The vote is on a two preference AV basis. People could vote TIG 1st and LD 2nd.
Wait, I just realised. TIG can just say they aren't running for Mayor of London as part of their agreement to try not to clash with the LDs. Save the money (and save face potentially). It's the easier way out, so they'll probably take it.
The vote is on a two preference AV basis. People could vote TIG 1st and LD 2nd.
Yes, but because it's only two round, it would still make perfect sense to only run one candidate. If there were an unlimited number of transfers, you would be correct.
The comparison with the SDP is silly and unrealistic. The SDP had coherent philosophy and binding policies. TIG is an incoherent rag-bag of malcontents who have nothing in common apart from (a) disliking their fomer party leaders (b) disliking Brexit. Assuming that the next general election is in 2022, Brexit will be sorted by then an there will be nothing to hold TIG together. I think that most of them will not stand for re-election, and the rest will get derisory votes. Depending on who the two main party leaders are in 2020-21-22, some of them might go back to their former parties.
A possible Trump primary challenger, who seems to have political smarts : https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/21/larry-hogan-2020-trump-1179635 Hogan, who frequently mentions that his late father was the first Republican member of Congress to call for Richard Nixon's impeachment, said he was in no rush to make a decision. A successful campaign, he argued, could start later on.
“At this point in time, I don’t see any path to winning a Republican primary against this president, or anybody doing it. But things have a way of changing,” he said. “I don’t know what the lay of the land is going to look like this summer, or in the fall.”
Fascinating chart on 'the demographic time bomb' - from the 1960s to the late 1990s the UK had one of the greatest proportions of 65+ year olds - typically in the top 5 globally - but from 1999 onwards our position sinks until we're now easily out of the top 20.....while absolute number have gone up, they haven't as fast as other countries.....
To put HYUFD's stubborness into context during the 2017GE he repeatedly claimed that ending Winter Fuel Allowance in England but keeping it in Scotland was going to be a vote winner ... in England.
And when after the 2017GE the Conservatives dropped the WFA plan he changed his tune with an ease which an Oceania orator would admire.
No I did not however I did argue Scottish Tories could do their own thing and of course the Tory voteshare did rise in England and the Tories gained seats in Scotland.
You repeatedly refused to accept that the 2017 Conservative manifesto wasn't the vote winner you claimed it was.
The 2017 TM manifesto was not used by the Scottish conservatives. We fought the election on the union not brexit. This is constantly forgotten by English tories.
Good morning everyone. Misty here, but you wouldn't call it foggy. Not when compared to the fogs of the 50's and 60's.
And, in reminiscent mood, the Tiggers don't seem to resonate with the public the same way that the SDP did; something about their leadership I suspect. Of course the Lib leadership was much more high profile then than the LibDem leadership is now.
On topic - I think Luciana Berger would have a very decent shot of winning if she stood in Hendon or Bury.
The Jewish community in Greater Manchester is split across borough and constituency boundaries. On the north side of the city, the Jewish percentage of the population in the 2 constituencies of Bury South (which is a misnomer as it doesn't include the town of Bury itself) and Blackley/Broughton would not be sufficient to enable a Jewish candidate without major party endorsement to win in either constituency.
Of course the Lib leadership was much more high profile then than the LibDem leadership is now.
Masterly understatement there Your Venerable Cheerful Majesty.
Which is a bit damning when you consider Cable, unlike Steel, is a former cabinet minister.
Thank you. Steel of course had several advantages. First of all he was young, fresh-faced, smart looking and sounding. Cable less so (!). The Libs were the third party in Parliament (before SDP split) whereas the LibDem's are behind the SNP in seats and therefore not called as much. And, in the 80's no-one took much notice of Northern Irish parties. The Unionists especially were much more interested in fighting among themselves.
In fairness to Vince, given Brexit, Tory leadership race (ongoing) and Corbyn there really isn't much political space for anything else. Whilst I don't doubt he could be better I think even a far better leader would be struggling for attention. They are behind the SNP which is another party to take up news space and now we have the shiny new Tiggers as well.
He also didn't exactly stand in the way of others but got the job from a lack of competition. He can be criticised and he could have done better but I don't think Vince is that much to blame for the Lib Dems problems, at least his current leadership from 2017.
In fairness to Vince, given Brexit, Tory leadership race (ongoing) and Corbyn there really isn't much political space for anything else. Whilst I don't doubt he could be better I think even a far better leader would be struggling for attention. They are behind the SNP which is another party to take up news space and now we have the shiny new Tiggers as well.
He also didn't exactly stand in the way of others but got the job from a lack of competition. He can be criticised and he could have done better but I don't think Vince is that much to blame for the Lib Dems problems, at least his current leadership from 2017.
'When in doubt, march towards the sound of gunfire!' Jo Grimond.
Good morning everyone. Misty here, but you wouldn't call it foggy. Not when compared to the fogs of the 50's and 60's.
And, in reminiscent mood, the Tiggers don't seem to resonate with the public the same way that the SDP did; something about their leadership I suspect. Of course the Lib leadership was much more high profile then than the LibDem leadership is now.
People are a lot more negative about politics generally, nowadays. And the news cycle is such that some of us are getting bored already (see upthread), whereas in 1981 we'd still be looking forward to the Sunday papers for the first heavyweight analysis.
Wait, I just realised. TIG can just say they aren't running for Mayor of London as part of their agreement to try not to clash with the LDs. Save the money (and save face potentially). It's the easier way out, so they'll probably take it.
The vote is on a two preference AV basis. People could vote TIG 1st and LD 2nd.
Not quite. There's a crucial difference in the way the transfers work.
Sometimes, this site is full of highly knowledgeable people having in depth discussions on a range of complex, esoteric topics.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.
Correct but Epping is NOT East London
I flipping knew that was going to happen, and all.
You know what? I'm going in.
If it's on the Tube, it's part of London.
At any rate it's more London than Ilford is.
Good night!
Epping is an Essex rural market down that just happens to be at the end of the Central line for convenience
Epping station riginally opened by the GER on an extension from Loughton to Ongar in 1865. Became part of the Central line in 1949. Epping to Ongar closed in 1994 but reopened as a heritage railway in 2012.
Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
Yes, that's very much my view.
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
Two observations:
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
Yes, that's very much my view.
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
Two observations:
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.
The percentage of non-whites in South is much higher than in North.
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
Statistics? I very much doubt the percentage of non-whites in South is 20% higher than in Ilford North as the Labour vote is 20% higher in South than in North
Will you please accept that you were wrong and that the percentage of non-whites in Ilford South is more than 20% higher than in Ilford North.
I will but as I pointed out it also does not defeat my point as Gapes increased the Labour vote in Ilford South from 2001 to 2015 while it fell in Ilford North from 2001 to 2015 despite similar demographic changes over that period in both seats
Tell us, in thousands, how big you think the personal vote of Mike Gapes is.
Probably several thousand and given Ilford South voted Remain and he opposes Brexit and Tories and LDs might vote for him v Corbyn Labour maybe more as TIG
Nah. HY isn't looking at the other candidates, particularly in 2001, and doesn't know the seat well enough.
Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
Yes, that's very much my view.
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
Two observations:
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
I think it’s very likely that her family is receiving free legal advice from political opponents of the Government and/or pro-migration advocates and charities.
Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
Yes, that's very much my view.
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
Two observations:
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.
WTF?
I made a couple of observations, deliberately without stating a view, and I get personally abused?
FWIW: the Christian view is that without repentance there is no forgiveness. She’s shown no remorse, so I assume she hasn’t repented.
Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
Yes, that's very much my view.
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
Two observations:
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
And her husband, the Dutch national couldn’t be refused.
I don’t think Greening, Grieve or Lee are going. The Conservatives responded to the defections tactfully, and have reached out and have plugged the leak.
Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
Yes, that's very much my view.
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
Two observations:
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.
What - to start a Crusade to free the Holy Lands of ISIS?
Random Thought: Has anyone asked TIG if they would run a Mayor of London candidate? Their brand of voter is quite concentrated in London, but they are currently all about Parliament. Plus I reckon they mostly all like Sadiq.
A Khan v Umunna runoff could be close and Umunna could edge it if Tories and LDs voted for him
Lol, I wonder which one Corbyn would be rooting against more? Umunna, but only barely I reckon.
Khan gets the tribal Labour vote in this scenario. In London, that's pretty deep in places; Kate Hoey/ Vauxhall is proof of that particular pudding
On that note: Maybe Umunna would be better off contesting Vauxhall than Streatham?
Which random thought may well be the seed that led to them thinking of fighting other seats.
Is there an opinion that one holds that means your citizenship should be nullified? Bangladesh have already said she isn’t a national of theirs. Don’t get me wrong. Taken out and shot is too good for her, but this is pretty poor form.
It means anyone who could somehow be entitled to (but not have) citizenship elsewhere could have their British citizenship revoked. Jews might feel a bit sensitive about this...
Yes, that's very much my view.
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
Two observations:
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
I expected a more Christian attitude from you Charles.
WTF?
I made a couple of observations, deliberately without stating a view, and I get personally abused?
FWIW: the Christian view is that without repentance there is no forgiveness. She’s shown no remorse, so I assume she hasn’t repented.
Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
In 1982, when Jenkins finally found a seat that offered him a chance of entering the commons after a year of looking, he was campaigning in Hillhead. He saw a Sikh gentleman, and approached him:
Jenkins: 'Tell me, how long have you been here?' Sikh gentleman: 'A lot longer than you.'
Comments
I must rest my fevered brow.
I was making the argument The result of losing tabs and control of IS members is less security at home and around the world, whilst the policy of alienation and grievance actually plays into the hands of extremists. Do you not see a bit of truth in that, when lead commissioner for countering extremism and anti terror experts say these things?
Despite that It’s hard to make an argument, to return them to treat them as British criminals and British terrorists when the Tory government is allowing 90% of the returning IS members to get off scot free.
Ethnic split in Ilford North in 2011:
White British 44%
Asian 33%
White other 8%
Black 8%
Mixed 4%
Other: 2%
Ethnic split in Ilford South in 2011:
Asian 57%
White British 17%
Black 11%
White other 7%
Mixed 4%
Other: 3%
Ethnic split in Ilford North in 2011:
White British 44%
Asian 33%
White other 8%
Black 8%
Mixed 4%
Other: 2%
Ethnic split in Ilford South in 2011:
Asian 57%
White British 17%
Black 11%
White other 7%
Mixed 4%
Other: 3%
IDS has increased his vote in Chingford and Woodford Green from 47.5% in 1997 to 49.1% in 2017.
Streeting has increased his vote in Ilford North from 43.9% in 2015 to 57.8% in 2017.
Cryer has increased his vote in Leyton and Wanstead from 43.6% in 2010 to 69.8% in 2017.
Gapes has increased his vote in Ilford South from 45.4% in 1992 to 75.8% in 2017, so he has the biggest personal vote of any MP in the area
Ilford North 44% White British 8% White Other
Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
By comparison in the 2001 census:
Ilford North 76% White
Ilford South 45% White
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
ISIS did a lot of bad stuff in Syria
Let her face Syrian justice (whether Assad, Kurds, Opposition)
Anyone on this board could win Ilford South as the official Labour candidate !
Like I don't begrudge ManCity a bit of success now, because their supporters have suffered through so much, so I don't begrudge an over-excitable LibDem a little bit of bluffing about "shoo-ins".
You know, I know, and William Hill know that the number of TIGgers in next Parliament is most likely zero.
It's only for those who are British by naturalisation that the "entitled to but not have" criterion comes into play.
Sometimes, it's just full of people slagging each other off along established well-trodden party political lines.
And right now, there's two blokes from East London furiously going at each other over who has the better knowledge of Ilfordian demographic history.
I love this place.
1981 census
Ilford North 8% Black/Asian
Ilford South 20% Black/Asian
1991 census
Ilford North 13% non-white
Ilford South 36% non-white
Ilford South 17% White British 7% White Other
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/ilfordnorth/
By comparison in the 2001 census:
Ilford North 76% White
Ilford South 45% White
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordsouth/
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/ilfordnorth/
So even then over a 14 year period Ilford South saw its white population fall by 21% and Ilford North saw its white population fall by 24% ie almost identical change while in Ilford North the Labour vote fell by 2% over that period while in Ilford South the Labour vote rose by 5% over that period?
For evidence, how Chuck stormed off Murnaghan In comparison how Thornberry laughed off being pub quizzed.
Ethnic split in Ilford North in 2011:
White British 44%
Asian 33%
White other 8%
Black 8%
Mixed 4%
Other: 2%
Ethnic split in Ilford South in 2011:
Asian 57%
White British 17%
Black 11%
White other 7%
Mixed 4%
Other: 3%
If it's on the Tube, it's part of London.
At any rate it's more London than Ilford is.
Good night!
And when after the 2017GE the Conservatives dropped the WFA plan he changed his tune with an ease which an Oceania orator would admire.
One potential Labour Tigger that could hold is Ian Murray
In Scotland its all about concentrating the Unionist vote.
And a Corbyn Labour candidate would likely struggle with that.
Apparently the same thing was vetoed by a Democrat governor in California in 2017 too.
I must say, this seems like a very slippery slope to inviting red and blue states to pass more and more restrictions and endless cases in the courts as to where the constitutional line is drawn. Like the battle in the Deep South to make abortion clinics impossible through new hoops to jump through, but for the highest office in the land.
I) He isn't an antisemite
II) He loves the EU.
Along with the official Labour stamp and incumbency, it makes Sadiq almost invincible !
That might split into:
3 insufficient evidence
3 helping the authorities with their enquiries
3 pending prosecution
1 actually prosecuted
We don't actually know the split - we only know the number of cases that have so far resulted in a prosecution. Given the delays in our legal system (see The Secret Barrister's book), it's probably too early to draw too many conclusions.
And surely, irrespective, the right thing for the government to be doing is bringing sensible primary legislation regarding what constitutes treasonous behaviour, and making sure that the evidential requirements are appropriate.
The other thing is that it's all a bit irrelevant. Even if she's a citizen, we're under no obligation to spend tax payers' money getting her back to the UK. Given that she's wanted by the Kurds and others, surely it's a matter for the Syrians (who have her), and the Kurds/Iraqis who want her.
Really, you think Hampstead Garden suburb is in London???
London is bordered by the zoo to the North, the river to the South, Brick Lane to the East, and Shepard's Bush Empire to the West.
Outside that, it's suburbia.
https://twitter.com/PA/status/1098754248488222720
https://twitter.com/MattNavarra/status/1098580810062618627
https://twitter.com/MatthewConfer/status/1075073625085091840
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/21/larry-hogan-2020-trump-1179635
Hogan, who frequently mentions that his late father was the first Republican member of Congress to call for Richard Nixon's impeachment, said he was in no rush to make a decision. A successful campaign, he argued, could start later on.
“At this point in time, I don’t see any path to winning a Republican primary against this president, or anybody doing it. But things have a way of changing,” he said. “I don’t know what the lay of the land is going to look like this summer, or in the fall.”
https://youtu.be/uJ_dVX6IMFg
And, in reminiscent mood, the Tiggers don't seem to resonate with the public the same way that the SDP did; something about their leadership I suspect.
Of course the Lib leadership was much more high profile then than the LibDem leadership is now.
Which is a bit damning when you consider Cable, unlike Steel, is a former cabinet minister.
Scrolling through those bets I was kind of tempted by the 100/1 on Matt Damon becoming US President by 2040.
The Libs were the third party in Parliament (before SDP split) whereas the LibDem's are behind the SNP in seats and therefore not called as much. And, in the 80's no-one took much notice of Northern Irish parties. The Unionists especially were much more interested in fighting among themselves.
He also didn't exactly stand in the way of others but got the job from a lack of competition. He can be criticised and he could have done better but I don't think Vince is that much to blame for the Lib Dems problems, at least his current leadership from 2017.
But EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker claimed he has “something like a Brexit fatigue” and said he is “not very optimistic” that MPs will pass the new deal.
He added: “In the British parliament, every time they are voting, there is a majority against something, there is no majority in favour of something."
F1: first test ended yesterday, the second is 26 February to 1 March. Then it's a fortnight to the first race weekend.
Not sure I read too much into anything early on, to be honest.
It’s interesting that everyone assumes the Bangladeshi government is speaking the 100% truth and the U.K. government is lying/wrong.
Curious that the family has pivoted this morning to bring the baby back home (it will be ironic if they then try to use chain migration to bring the mother in)
It’s North of the River, South of the Park
The zoo is in a patch of countryside that is near London
(Basically London = zone 1)
Gapes has been around for a while (although longer than very many of his electors!) and would probably bring 1,500 across. But they've been wanting to push him out for ages, and he is surely on the verge of retirement anyway.
Fucking muppets.
This isn’t really about her anymore.
I made a couple of observations, deliberately without stating a view, and I get personally abused?
FWIW: the Christian view is that without repentance there is no forgiveness. She’s shown no remorse, so I assume she hasn’t repented.
Just curious rather than a dig.
For now.
Jenkins: 'Tell me, how long have you been here?'
Sikh gentleman: 'A lot longer than you.'