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SystemSystem Posts: 12,172
edited February 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » William Hill make it odds-on that none of the original LAB and CON TIGers will hold their seats

The basic bet is whether any of the founding 11 TIGers are going to be returned as MPs at the next general election.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    1
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Come on, it simply has to be the case of one Tigger winning a seat at the next election. Just for the sake of the Wonderful Thing About Tiggers joke.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2019
    Heidi Allen has the best chance in Cambridgeshire South, especially if the LDs stand aside. I can't see any of the Labour defectors holding their seats.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    The tigger thing is Brexit fluff and not remotely important. It doesn’t matter what they poll, its what mould breaking traction they can get in British system of FPTP that favours cohabitation in two large parties traditionally split on economic philosophy.
    The truth of every single tigger so far is they know their political career is already at the end, doesn’t extend beyond the next election, so it is actually easy to do what they are doing. Everyone who is not a tigger still believes in their career beyond the next election, more greasy pole for them, and that their party can still be pulled back to centre if they stay in it. That is the clear and truthful definition of what is going on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited February 2019
    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2019
    You still win if they rejoin their party, right? If so, stonking value. Aside from their non-trivial chances of holding the seats as TIG, there had to be a reasonable chance that one of the ex-Tories rejoins Con post-Brexit, or one of the ex-Lab guys rejoins Lab post-Corbyn or post-Milne.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    dots said:

    The tigger thing is Brexit fluff and not remotely important. It doesn’t matter what they poll, its what mould breaking traction they can get in British system of FPTP that favours cohabitation in two large parties traditionally split on economic philosophy.
    The truth of every single tigger so far is they know their political career is already at the end, doesn’t extend beyond the next election, so it is actually easy to do what they are doing. Everyone who is not a tigger still believes in their career beyond the next election, more greasy pole for them, and that their party can still be pulled back to centre if they stay in it. That is the clear and truthful definition of what is going on.

    You may be in for surprise.

    All the hot air on this seems to me to be based on what happened to SDP under FPTP.

    We live in a volatile age.

    The conventional wisdom has been wrong repeatedly in last few years.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    They’re all in with a chance. No one’s much enamoured with Lab or Con any more. Having a TIG to vote for might be the new Leave - anything to stuff the establishment regardless of what it actually entails.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    Someone "famous" must have just mentioned this petition on social media, because the number signing "in the last hour" has jumped from about 500 earlier today to almost 8,000.

    https://petition.parliament.uk

    Now over 500,000 if I am correct. Can someone check that and it is not fake news
    Of course it isn't fake news. I'm surprised even more people haven't signed it.
    Well that means a debate in the HOC. Notice the media have not cottoned on to it
    I really hate the politicians who have allowed populism to make a comeback in this country. In the 1990s it looked like we'd defeated it forever, but their ineptitude over the last 10 to 15 years has allowed it to make a reappearance.
    Eh? We elected our most populist PM ever in 1997.
    For once I agree with Richard Nabavi!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edmundintokyo said:

    You still win if they rejoin their party, right? If so, stonking value. Aside from their non-trivial chances of holding the seats as TIG, there had to be a reasonable chance that one of the ex-Tories rejoins Con post-Brexit, or one of the ex-Lab guys rejoins Lab post-Corbyn or post-Milne.

    Good question, it would be good to get clarity if that voids, wins or loses the bet. Could be any of the three.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Stark_Dawning said:

    They’re all in with a chance. No one’s much enamoured with Lab or Con any more. Having a TIG to vote for might be the new Leave - anything to stuff the establishment regardless of what it actually entails.

    TIG have to be seen as anti-establishment first, especially after they have a set of polices/clear political identity.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Interesting Q&A by Uncle Vince:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/at5f34/just_got_out_of_a_lengthy_qa_by_vince_cable_with/
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    Someone "famous" must have just mentioned this petition on social media, because the number signing "in the last hour" has jumped from about 500 earlier today to almost 8,000.

    https://petition.parliament.uk

    Now over 500,000 if I am correct. Can someone check that and it is not fake news
    Of course it isn't fake news. I'm surprised even more people haven't signed it.
    Well that means a debate in the HOC. Notice the media have not cottoned on to it
    I really hate the politicians who have allowed populism to make a comeback in this country. In the 1990s it looked like we'd defeated it forever, but their ineptitude over the last 10 to 15 years has allowed it to make a reappearance.
    Eh? We elected our most populist PM ever in 1997.
    For once I agree with Richard Nabavi!
    And isn't it thanks to that populist PM that we have the 100k signatures triggers a debate in Parliament rule in the first place?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    My, er, friend tells me he's seriously conflicted by Heidi's treachery defection!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    They’re all in with a chance. No one’s much enamoured with Lab or Con any more. Having a TIG to vote for might be the new Leave - anything to stuff the establishment regardless of what it actually entails.

    TIG have to be seen as anti-establishment first, especially after they have a set of polices/clear political identity.
    TIG are reactionaries.

    The are wanting to preserve the establishment in the face of Leavers seeking to change it.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Possible the TIGgers will be a damp squib, but they don't have to be much better to hold at least one seat. The SDP did get crushed in the 1983 - but they still held 6 seats. That was on 26% of the vote, but my guess is the TIGgers will learn from the SDP's experience and focus more on holding seats than winning the entire election.

    My guess is if they poll 10%+ nationally they hold at least one seat, but that's quite a big requirement. Just because the SDP surged in the polls and held on to much of it doesn't mean the TIGgers will.

    I'm a bit bearish on Chuka's chances actually. Stretham has lots of Europhile voters who dislike Corbyn's stance on Brexit, but it also has lots of Corbynites voters who really like Corbyn otherwise (many of them are in both categories). I'm not that confident the former will outweigh the latter. And there's shedloads of Labour activists available nearby.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    If the Question Time audience is anything to go by the TIGgers will not be holding their seats
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    "Chuka Umunna must become leader of the breakaway group of Independent MPs, Tory defectors have claimed, as the race to take control of the movement began."

    Telegraph
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rottenborough said:

    "Chuka Umunna must become leader of the breakaway group of Independent MPs, Tory defectors have claimed, as the race to take control of the movement began."

    Telegraph

    If I was in their shoes I'd say Luciana Berger. She's made the best appearances so far, is well spoken and telegenic and has the best story to tell as far as standing up to Corbyn is concerned.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    I don't think there is that much of a personal vote among Ilford South's Muslim community!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Philip_Thompson said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    They’re all in with a chance. No one’s much enamoured with Lab or Con any more. Having a TIG to vote for might be the new Leave - anything to stuff the establishment regardless of what it actually entails.

    TIG have to be seen as anti-establishment first, especially after they have a set of polices/clear political identity.
    TIG are reactionaries.

    The are wanting to preserve the establishment in the face of Leavers seeking to change it.
    My impression of them is similar. They seem to want to bring back a Blairite style of politics, and in that sense they are as stuck in the past as much as Corbyn is, or as some of the Hard Brexiteers are.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    Someone "famous" must have just mentioned this petition on social media, because the number signing "in the last hour" has jumped from about 500 earlier today to almost 8,000.

    https://petition.parliament.uk

    Now over 500,000 if I am correct. Can someone check that and it is not fake news
    Of course it isn't fake news. I'm surprised even more people haven't signed it.
    Well that means a debate in the HOC. Notice the media have not cottoned on to it
    I really hate the politicians who have allowed populism to make a comeback in this country. In the 1990s it looked like we'd defeated it forever, but their ineptitude over the last 10 to 15 years has allowed it to make a reappearance.
    Eh? We elected our most populist PM ever in 1997.
    For once I agree with Richard Nabavi!
    TIGs can only get better?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    No particular evidence it had much to do with him given the Labour surge in most of London. Wes Streeting in Ilford North saw an even mor dramatic increase in his majority. Nexxt time Labour might seek to label Gapes and Ryan - unsure about Leslie and Coffey - as being complicit in the War Crimes of the Blair Government.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,268
    Soubry might not even stand if this parliament runs its full course (and said as much in an interview yesterday. Though I’m not convinced she would be quite so willing to retire as she claims, if the political climate is favourable.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    rottenborough said:

    "Chuka Umunna must become leader of the breakaway group of Independent MPs, Tory defectors have claimed, as the race to take control of the movement began."

    Telegraph

    I thought it was just Heidi Allen saying this. I wonder how they’ll have a leadership contest? Will be MPs just vote among themselves or will it be wider than that?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    They’re all in with a chance. No one’s much enamoured with Lab or Con any more. Having a TIG to vote for might be the new Leave - anything to stuff the establishment regardless of what it actually entails.

    TIG have to be seen as anti-establishment first, especially after they have a set of polices/clear political identity.
    The thing is policies and identity are rather important for political parties/movements. You really can't expect people to vote for you without them.

    Other than opposing Brexit by all means possible what do TIG actually believe in? They appear to have a single policy which may be irrelevant in as little as 5 weeks time. By comparison the SDP was far more coherent.

    Maybe I'm wrong but I expect that TIG are going to start falling out as soon as the get asked some difficult questions about something other than Brexit.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Philip_Thompson said:

    rottenborough said:

    "Chuka Umunna must become leader of the breakaway group of Independent MPs, Tory defectors have claimed, as the race to take control of the movement began."

    Telegraph

    If I was in their shoes I'd say Luciana Berger. She's made the best appearances so far, is well spoken and telegenic and has the best story to tell as far as standing up to Corbyn is concerned.
    Agreed, but the internal politics of any group (be it MPs or any other job) are very hard to decipher from the outside. That's why I generally avoid Next Leader bets, just too much we can't know.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
    I don't think there is that much of a personal vote among Ilford South's Muslim community!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    glw said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    They’re all in with a chance. No one’s much enamoured with Lab or Con any more. Having a TIG to vote for might be the new Leave - anything to stuff the establishment regardless of what it actually entails.

    TIG have to be seen as anti-establishment first, especially after they have a set of polices/clear political identity.
    The thing is policies and identity are rather important for political parties/movements. You really can't expect people to vote for you without them.

    Other than opposing Brexit by all means possible what do TIG actually believe in? They appear to have a single policy which may be irrelevant in as little as 5 weeks time. By comparison the SDP was far more coherent.

    Maybe I'm wrong but I expect that TIG are going to start falling out as soon as the get asked some difficult questions about something other than Brexit.
    The SDP didn't exist at this stage. It took several weeks from the Gang of Four quitting to the SDP being formed (and 24 other MPs joining them by that point).
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Wow, 'At least one to win a seat' at evens is a stonkingly good bet. I've maxed out for the full £20 Mr Hill would allow me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited February 2019
    Most of Owen Jones's twitter feed is taken up with TIG.

    Not worried. Not worried one bit...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Forget TIG.

    May is still running down the clock.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    houndtang said:

    If the Question Time audience is anything to go by the TIGgers will not be holding their seats

    The three amigos have effectively accused TM of being racist (“she has a problem with immigration”) and said they want to destroy the Tory party. I don’t think the public will have a lot of truck for that and the obvious remoamer bias of another manifestation of the people’s vote campaign , disguised as a new political movement , but really just a campaign to block brexit and scupper the 2016 vote .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    The_Apocalypse said:

    rottenborough said:

    "Chuka Umunna must become leader of the breakaway group of Independent MPs, Tory defectors have claimed, as the race to take control of the movement began."

    Telegraph

    I thought it was just Heidi Allen saying this. I wonder how they’ll have a leadership contest? Will be MPs just vote among themselves or will it be wider than that?
    The media is getting well ahead of themselves. If or when a party is formed then this stuff will happen.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    10K eh? Wow.

    https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1098605538630422530
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    Quincel said:

    The SDP didn't exist at this stage. It took several weeks from the Gang of Four quitting to the SDP being formed (and 24 other MPs joining them by that point).

    Sure but the SDP was basically Labour in origin. TIG is already spanning Labour to Conservative, and might work with the Lib Dems. Somebody should ask them what they think about some controversial issues, and we will see if this "new" politics amounts to anything or if they go back to "tribal" left-right politics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
    Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    Philip_Thompson said:

    rottenborough said:

    "Chuka Umunna must become leader of the breakaway group of Independent MPs, Tory defectors have claimed, as the race to take control of the movement began."

    Telegraph

    If I was in their shoes I'd say Luciana Berger. She's made the best appearances so far, is well spoken and telegenic and has the best story to tell as far as standing up to Corbyn is concerned.
    Berger looks too rabbit in the headlights, if we are to have a British Macron Umunna will likely be the one
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    glw said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    They’re all in with a chance. No one’s much enamoured with Lab or Con any more. Having a TIG to vote for might be the new Leave - anything to stuff the establishment regardless of what it actually entails.

    TIG have to be seen as anti-establishment first, especially after they have a set of polices/clear political identity.
    The thing is policies and identity are rather important for political parties/movements. You really can't expect people to vote for you without them.

    Other than opposing Brexit by all means possible what do TIG actually believe in? They appear to have a single policy which may be irrelevant in as little as 5 weeks time. By comparison the SDP was far more coherent.

    Maybe I'm wrong but I expect that TIG are going to start falling out as soon as the get asked some difficult questions about something other than Brexit.
    This happened only yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1098224835656892416?s=21

    And that’s with two former Tories.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Jonathan said:

    Forget TIG.

    May is still running down the clock.

    The clock is running down of its own accord. Nothing whatever to do with Theresa May. If MPs want something else to happen, they need to specify what.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1098722542288801792

    Yeh, but, look over there, between the trees, in the mist, I am sure I see unicorns...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    I don't think there is that much of a personal vote among Ilford South's Muslim community!
    Who still make up a minority of the seat (and even then Gapes held on in 2005 when a number of Labour outer London seats were lost)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    houndtang said:

    If the Question Time audience is anything to go by the TIGgers will not be holding their seats

    The Brexity man in the audience was a UKIP parliamentary candidate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    No particular evidence it had much to do with him given the Labour surge in most of London. Wes Streeting in Ilford North saw an even mor dramatic increase in his majority. Nexxt time Labour might seek to label Gapes and Ryan - unsure about Leslie and Coffey - as being complicit in the War Crimes of the Blair Government.
    Streeting majority 2017 9,639, Gapes majority 2017 31,647
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    So, this story about Essex from the other day

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6731231/Anti-Semitism-row-University-Essex-students-vote-AGAINST-starting-Jewish-Society.html

    Read about the lecturer - sounds like a winner

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1098723599341502467?s=21
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Forget TIG.

    May is still running down the clock.

    The clock is running down of its own accord. Nothing whatever to do with Theresa May. If MPs want something else to happen, they need to specify what.
    Permanent Customs Union
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    The_Apocalypse said:

    And that’s with two former Tories.

    Take away Brexit (which is obviously all-consuming right now) and we will see just how much they really have in common. I won't be surprised if they end up with a right TIG and left TIG.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited February 2019
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    They’re all in with a chance. No one’s much enamoured with Lab or Con any more. Having a TIG to vote for might be the new Leave - anything to stuff the establishment regardless of what it actually entails.

    TIG have to be seen as anti-establishment first
    The problem is they are the establishment.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    williamglenn said:

    houndtang said:

    If the Question Time audience is anything to go by the TIGgers will not be holding their seats

    The Brexity man in the audience was a UKIP parliamentary candidate.
    I doubt a QT audience has been representative for at least a decade.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    "Rachael" Swindon's Twitter poll not going as well as she hoped...

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1098581256718163974
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    glw said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    And that’s with two former Tories.

    Take away Brexit (which is obviously all-consuming right now) and we will see just how much they really have in common. I won't be surprised if they end up with a right TIG and left TIG.
    TIG is made up of Cameroons and Blairites, ideologically New Labour and Cameroon Tories are far closer to each other than to Corbynite Labour or ERG Tory
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
    Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
    Demographic changes.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Forget TIG.

    May is still running down the clock.

    The clock is running down of its own accord. Nothing whatever to do with Theresa May. If MPs want something else to happen, they need to specify what.
    It's a shame that most MPs are too busy compiling a list of all the possible outcomes they don't want.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    The_Apocalypse said:

    glw said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    They’re all in with a chance. No one’s much enamoured with Lab or Con any more. Having a TIG to vote for might be the new Leave - anything to stuff the establishment regardless of what it actually entails.

    TIG have to be seen as anti-establishment first, especially after they have a set of polices/clear political identity.
    The thing is policies and identity are rather important for political parties/movements. You really can't expect people to vote for you without them.

    Other than opposing Brexit by all means possible what do TIG actually believe in? They appear to have a single policy which may be irrelevant in as little as 5 weeks time. By comparison the SDP was far more coherent.

    Maybe I'm wrong but I expect that TIG are going to start falling out as soon as the get asked some difficult questions about something other than Brexit.
    This happened only yesterday:

    https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1098224835656892416?s=21

    And that’s with two former Tories.
    Whilst I don't disagree that it will be hard for the TIGers to come up with a coherent policy platform, there's no contradiction between the two statements. Of course it was necessary to take firm action in 2010 to fix the public finances, given the unbelievable starting point where the previous government was spending three pounds for every two raised in revenue. That doesn't contradict what Heidi Allen (elected only in 2015, remember) says about the implementation of welfare in the last couple of years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
    Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
    Demographic changes.
    Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and Wanstead
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    TSE: "So No Deal will happen."


    Corbyn is definitely Mr Inertia because he wants to make sure Brexit happens before he becomes PM. (I know, wishful thinking on his part, but there you go.)

    So it's up to Tory and Labour rebels to stop No Deal. They're determined to stop it, but May has outmanoeuvred them so far (She and the Tories will probably pay for this in various ways later, but she's so fixed on the single target that she's blind to the collateral damage.) and left them confused and divided. It's hard to see the mechanism by which they stop it now. They have two options: work to get May's agreement passed, but that seems unlikely if the ERG and Corbyn won't support it, or revolt. I assume the revolt will happen next Wednesday, but what the outcome of it will be, I can't even imagine. It's really fascinating drama.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,136
    edited February 2019
    FPT @DougSeal
    DougSeal said:

    @viewcode Of course I’m a bloody seal!

    Ah. Suddenly things make sense... :)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    No particular evidence it had much to do with him given the Labour surge in most of London. Wes Streeting in Ilford North saw an even mor dramatic increase in his majority. Nexxt time Labour might seek to label Gapes and Ryan - unsure about Leslie and Coffey - as being complicit in the War Crimes of the Blair Government.
    Streeting majority 2017 9,639, Gapes majority 2017 31,647
    Ilford South has always been the stronger seat for Labour but the swing in Ilford North was slightly higher.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Did I read that the Tiggers had agreed NOT to stand in their current constituencies?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Forget TIG.

    May is still running down the clock.

    The clock is running down of its own accord. Nothing whatever to do with Theresa May. If MPs want something else to happen, they need to specify what.
    May in office, but not in power? She could stop the clock tomorrow.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    HYUFD said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Forget TIG.

    May is still running down the clock.

    The clock is running down of its own accord. Nothing whatever to do with Theresa May. If MPs want something else to happen, they need to specify what.
    Permanent Customs Union
    Worst of all worlds
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Forget TIG.

    May is still running down the clock.

    The clock is running down of its own accord. Nothing whatever to do with Theresa May. If MPs want something else to happen, they need to specify what.
    May in office, but not in power? She could stop the clock tomorrow.
    No she can't. Corbyn could, though.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    The_Apocalypse said:

    rottenborough said:

    "Chuka Umunna must become leader of the breakaway group of Independent MPs, Tory defectors have claimed, as the race to take control of the movement began."

    Telegraph

    I thought it was just Heidi Allen saying this. I wonder how they’ll have a leadership contest? Will be MPs just vote among themselves or will it be wider than that?
    Heidi Allen backing Chuka? Somebody should tell Heidi Allen about Heidi Allen.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
    Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
    Demographic changes.
    Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and Wanstead
    Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    Dadge said:

    Did I read that the Tiggers had agreed NOT to stand in their current constituencies?

    If they are being clever they might challenge Brexiteers in Remain constituencies like IDS, Redwood, even Corbyn himself
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Forget TIG.

    May is still running down the clock.

    The clock is running down of its own accord. Nothing whatever to do with Theresa May. If MPs want something else to happen, they need to specify what.
    May in office, but not in power? She could stop the clock tomorrow.
    No she can't. Corbyn could, though.
    She must be very weak. Or is she just stubborn and foolish.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Forget TIG.

    May is still running down the clock.

    The clock is running down of its own accord. Nothing whatever to do with Theresa May. If MPs want something else to happen, they need to specify what.
    May in office, but not in power? She could stop the clock tomorrow.
    No she can't. Corbyn could, though.
    She must be very weak. Or is she just stubborn and foolish.
    She doesn't have a majority. Simple as that. (Nor does anyone else, of course).
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited February 2019
    Dadge said:

    Did I read that the Tiggers had agreed NOT to stand in their current constituencies?

    Rumour; technically it wouldn't affect the bet as it's win a seat not their seat, though if that rumour was true running in marginals would be designed to split the Labour vote, not necessarily actually winning it themselves.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    The exchange between Chris Leslie and Andy McDonald over the Chakrabarti report won’t have done Labour any favours.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    williamglenn said:

    The exchange between Chris Leslie and Andy McDonald over the Chakrabarti report won’t have done Labour any favours.

    A superb jibe. I expect Corbyn will threaten to sue him.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Tissue_Price said:

    williamglenn said:

    The exchange between Chris Leslie and Andy McDonald over the Chakrabarti report won’t have done Labour any favours.

    A superb jibe. I expect Corbyn will threaten to sue him.
    What was a jibe?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    edited February 2019
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    No particular evidence it had much to do with him given the Labour surge in most of London. Wes Streeting in Ilford North saw an even mor dramatic increase in his majority. Nexxt time Labour might seek to label Gapes and Ryan - unsure about Leslie and Coffey - as being complicit in the War Crimes of the Blair Government.
    Streeting majority 2017 9,639, Gapes majority 2017 31,647
    Ilford South has always been the stronger seat for Labour but the swing in Ilford North was slightly higher.
    Only because Gapes had already achieved a huge swing in Ilford South previously.


    In 1987 Ilford North and Ilford South were both Tory seats.


    In 1992 Ilford North had a Tory majority of 9,051 and Gapes won Ilford South by 402 votes, a difference of just over 9,000 votes.


    By 2017 Ilford North has a Labour majority of 9,639, Ilford South a huge Labour majority of 31,647, a difference of 22,000 votes.

    Gapes has made it one of the safest Labour seats in the country.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited February 2019
    Plaid gain from Labour in Cardiff apparently by 52 votes.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    rottenborough said:

    dots said:

    The tigger thing is Brexit fluff and not remotely important. It doesn’t matter what they poll, its what mould breaking traction they can get in British system of FPTP that favours cohabitation in two large parties traditionally split on economic philosophy.
    The truth of every single tigger so far is they know their political career is already at the end, doesn’t extend beyond the next election, so it is actually easy to do what they are doing. Everyone who is not a tigger still believes in their career beyond the next election, more greasy pole for them, and that their party can still be pulled back to centre if they stay in it. That is the clear and truthful definition of what is going on.

    You may be in for surprise.

    All the hot air on this seems to me to be based on what happened to SDP under FPTP.

    We live in a volatile age.

    The conventional wisdom has been wrong repeatedly in last few years.
    The conventional facts are how many votes for kip, green and dem with little to show for it.

    Regardless what people with prof in front their name may tell you about fault lines of British politics changing because of brexit, they aren’t and never will. It’s economics. On this side is this view, on that side that view.

    One fine example is ERG pin up and rider with the hunt Kate Hoey, can never sit with and side with Tories on economic politics. Another fine example, the destruction of the Libdems in 2015, built themselves over 30 years as being this economics, then sat with and implemented that economics, so they were destroyed whilst the Tories actually gained.

    Tigs meet FPTP tigs lose. HY tried to argue against this by using Macron as example, but France electoral system has different DNA. The UK electoral system does not have to alter much to give tigs, kippers, greens fair do’s and ensure votes for them are not wasted, like now straight into dustbin, but to become PM under FPTP need to be leader of a party competive in enough constituency’s to win enough to win an election.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    No particular evidence it had much to do with him given the Labour surge in most of London. Wes Streeting in Ilford North saw an even mor dramatic increase in his majority. Nexxt time Labour might seek to label Gapes and Ryan - unsure about Leslie and Coffey - as being complicit in the War Crimes of the Blair Government.
    Streeting majority 2017 9,639, Gapes majority 2017 31,647
    Ilford South has always been the stronger seat for Labour but the swing in Ilford North was slightly higher.
    Only because Gapes had already achieved a huge swing in Ilford South previously.


    In 1987 Ilford North and Ilford South were both Tory seats.


    In 1992 Ilford North had a Tory majority of 9,051 and Gapes won Ilford South by 402 votes.


    By 2017 Ilford North has a Labour majority of 9,639, Ilford South a huge Labour majority of 31,647 and Gapes has made it one of the safest Labour seats in the country.
    Both seats changed due to demographics.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,045
    Astonishing result in Cardiff - PC gain from Labour. This is despite Labour having a good candidate and Plaid having internal problems.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    El_Capitano said:

    "Rachael" Swindon's Twitter poll not going as well as she hoped...

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1098581256718163974

    https://twitter.com/damian_from/status/1098564288237785091

    This is the future. Democracy by twitter poll.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    edited February 2019
    That v safe Labour seat in Cardiff - Plaid have just gained it (with 12.5% swing).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
    Sarah Wollaston looks a possible IF the LibDems and Greens give her a free pass. Labour was the closest challenger in 2017. She raised her vote from 53.0% to 53.7% - but her majority dropped nearly 5k as Labour's vote more than doubled to 26.8%.

    LibDems used to be the close challenger - they were within 5k in 2010. Their same candidate has plugged away as they have gone from 35% to 10% to 13%. Totnes town itself is very Green and has had a Green councillor. But their vote dropped more than 60%, as it peeled off to Labour.

    Labour will be fired up, thinking the Tory vote will split drastically, between those who love her and those who very much do not, giving them a chance to come though the middle. That is probably simplistic - my two nearest neighbours are Labour members, but have told me they would vote for Wollaston if she was not a Tory. I doubt they are alone.

    Also worth noting that her personal vote probably helped move the constituency into Remain - an obvious standout result for Remain in the region. She is a significant figure in local politics.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,622
    JohnO said:

    That v safe Labour seat in Cardiff - Plaid have just gained it.

    Ouch!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
    Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
    Demographic changes.
    Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and Wanstead
    Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.
    Nowhere near as safe as Ilford South
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1098656911837327360
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2019
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    williamglenn said:

    The exchange between Chris Leslie and Andy McDonald over the Chakrabarti report won’t have done Labour any favours.

    A superb jibe. I expect Corbyn will threaten to sue him.
    What was a jibe?
    On QT:

    Chris Leslie: antisemitism in Labour is a disgrace
    Andy MacDonald: come on Chris, we have been taking it seriously, the Chakrabarti report...
    Chris Leslie: Baroness Chakrabarti?
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Forget TIG.

    May is still running down the clock.

    The clock is running down of its own accord. Nothing whatever to do with Theresa May. If MPs want something else to happen, they need to specify what.
    May in office, but not in power? She could stop the clock tomorrow.
    No she can't. Corbyn could, though.
    How?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Tissue_Price said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    williamglenn said:

    The exchange between Chris Leslie and Andy McDonald over the Chakrabarti report won’t have done Labour any favours.

    A superb jibe. I expect Corbyn will threaten to sue him.
    What was a jibe?
    On QT:

    Chris Leslie: antisemitism in Labour is a disgrace
    Andy MacDonald: come on Chris, we have been taking it seriously, the Chakrabarti report...
    Chris Leslie: Baroness Chakrabarti?
    Nice!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1098725921576624129?s=21
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,187
    dots said:

    rottenborough said:

    dots said:

    The tigger thing is Brexit fluff and not remotely important. It doesn’t matter what they poll, its what mould breaking traction they can get in British system of FPTP that favours cohabitation in two large parties traditionally split on economic philosophy.
    The truth of every single tigger so far is they know their political career is already at the end, doesn’t extend beyond the next election, so it is actually easy to do what they are doing. Everyone who is not a tigger still believes in their career beyond the next election, more greasy pole for them, and that their party can still be pulled back to centre if they stay in it. That is the clear and truthful definition of what is going on.

    You may be in for surprise.

    All the hot air on this seems to me to be based on what happened to SDP under FPTP.

    We live in a volatile age.

    The conventional wisdom has been wrong repeatedly in last few years.
    The conventional facts are how many votes for kip, green and dem with little to show for it.

    Regardless what people with prof in front their name may tell you about fault lines of British politics changing because of brexit, they aren’t and never will. It’s economics. On this side is this view, on that side that view.

    One fine example is ERG pin up and rider with the hunt Kate Hoey, can never sit with and side with Tories on economic politics. Another fine example, the destruction of the Libdems in 2015, built themselves over 30 years as being this economics, then sat with and implemented that economics, so they were destroyed whilst the Tories actually gained.

    Tigs meet FPTP tigs lose. HY tried to argue against this by using Macron as example, but France electoral system has different DNA. The UK electoral system does not have to alter much to give tigs, kippers, greens fair do’s and ensure votes for them are not wasted, like now straight into dustbin, but to become PM under FPTP need to be leader of a party competive in enough constituency’s to win enough to win an election.
    Macron and En Marche even won the first round in France which is basically done under FPTP conditions unlike the second round (though helped by a right split between Les Republicains and FN, so TIGs will hope Farage's Brexit Party eats into the Tory vote)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    No particular evidence it had much to do with him given the Labour surge in most of London. Wes Streeting in Ilford North saw an even mor dramatic increase in his majority. Nexxt time Labour might seek to label Gapes and Ryan - unsure about Leslie and Coffey - as being complicit in the War Crimes of the Blair Government.
    Streeting majority 2017 9,639, Gapes majority 2017 31,647
    Ilford South has always been the stronger seat for Labour but the swing in Ilford North was slightly higher.
    Only because Gapes had already achieved a huge swing in Ilford South previously.


    In 1987 Ilford North and Ilford South were both Tory seats.


    In 1992 Ilford North had a Tory majority of 9,051 and Gapes won Ilford South by 402 votes, a difference of just over 9,000 votes.


    By 2017 Ilford North has a Labour majority of 9,639, Ilford South a huge Labour majority of 31,647, a difference of 22,000 votes.

    Gapes has made it one of the safest Labour seats in the country.
    Significant boundary changes in 1997.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    JohnO said:

    That v safe Labour seat in Cardiff - Plaid have just gained it (with 12.5% swing).

    Pass the popcorn.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    dots said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Jonathan said:

    Forget TIG.

    May is still running down the clock.

    The clock is running down of its own accord. Nothing whatever to do with Theresa May. If MPs want something else to happen, they need to specify what.
    May in office, but not in power? She could stop the clock tomorrow.
    No she can't. Corbyn could, though.
    How?
    By whipping his MPs to back the EU's withdrawal deal, or even abstain. It wouldn't even require a change of policy: the 'jobs first' Brexit or whatever rebranding they want would still be available.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,149
    slade said:

    Astonishing result in Cardiff - PC gain from Labour. This is despite Labour having a good candidate and Plaid having internal problems.

    Interesting with Newport in mind
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    williamglenn said:

    The exchange between Chris Leslie and Andy McDonald over the Chakrabarti report won’t have done Labour any favours.

    A superb jibe. I expect Corbyn will threaten to sue him.
    What was a jibe?
    On QT:

    Chris Leslie: antisemitism in Labour is a disgrace
    Andy MacDonald: come on Chris, we have been taking it seriously, the Chakrabarti report...
    Chris Leslie: Baroness Chakrabarti?
    Nice!
    55 seconds in here
    https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1098726075675430912
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    williamglenn said:

    The exchange between Chris Leslie and Andy McDonald over the Chakrabarti report won’t have done Labour any favours.

    A superb jibe. I expect Corbyn will threaten to sue him.
    What was a jibe?
    On QT:

    Chris Leslie: antisemitism in Labour is a disgrace
    Andy MacDonald: come on Chris, we have been taking it seriously, the Chakrabarti report...
    Chris Leslie: Baroness Chakrabarti?
    Nice!
    Wildean ... or at least Mertonian!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    TGOHF said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1098725921576624129?s=21

    Is there a local issue?

    Or is this a massive depth charge under Labour's direction?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
    Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
    Demographic changes.
    Not entirely, Gapes has the biggest majority in Redbridge, even bigger than John Cryer's in Leyton and Wanstead
    Due to demographic changes. Which have also converted Ilford North from a competitive seat to Safe Labour.
    Nowhere near as safe as Ilford South
    Yes, but that's because the demographics have only just kicked in in Ilford North. As recently as GE2010 Ilford North was won by the Tories.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mike Gapes I think will hold on, he has a strong personal vote, gaining Ilford South in 1992 when Labour lost nationally and seeing a 14% rise in the Labour vote in 2015 even as it rose by just 1% nationally and following that with an 11% rise in his vote in 2017

    Thanks for that and I know that you have strong local knowledge about constituency
    Yes, campaigned in Ilford last time, since winning it in 1992 Gapes has turned a Tory seat in 1987 to an ultra safe Labour seat now much of it on his personal vote
    Is he not helped by Labour and remain votes migrating out of London?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,726
    rottenborough said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1098725921576624129?s=21

    Is there a local issue?

    Or is this a massive depth charge under Labour's direction?
    Scotland: SNP
    Wales: PC
    England: TIG
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,888
    rottenborough said:

    TGOHF said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1098725921576624129?s=21

    Is there a local issue?

    Or is this a massive depth charge under Labour's direction?
    Ely that must be the part of Cardiff at the western end of the Bay.
This discussion has been closed.