politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today could be the day that Corbyn’s Labour Party finally spli

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1097442768555782144

MaxPB said:

It's not a very good name tbh.

I think it's great positioning. No fancy names, just designed to mop up those of independent mind of the centre-right, centre and centre-left. I hope some Tories will join. I can see the group welcoming Anna S, Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston, among others.

TOPPING said:

OK well the main question is simple: is this a mini-opposition breakaway Labour group working to overthrow the hated Tories, or is it a come all ye cross-party, centrist grouping.

Website seems to suggest the latter; the speeches the former.

Doing it as an loose group of independents rather than a new party is quite smart as it can become a repository for MPs from any side who think the current parties are broken.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1097441361698140160

Dan Hodges needs to get out more. This evening, DecrepitPolls will run an impromptu focus group in the fish and chip shop to see if this launch has any traction in a constituency of one of these MPs.

Unlike the others, in his mind Gapes is still Labour

https://twitter.com/jonwalker121/status/1097443269955502086

Gapes just tearing into Corbyn.

Top stuff.

IanB2 said:

MaxPB said:

It's not a very good name tbh.

Its a holding operation waiting to see how things turn out.

You can see how painful the decision is to each of these mps and they are very courageous. I wish them well and hope this grows into something really promising

From small acorns large oak trees grow

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Slackbladder said:

This is full on attack ripping corbs to shreds

It is astonishing in the unremitting attack on Corbyn and those around him. It is not just the EU but the wider anti-semitism, the anti west attitude and bullying

The question for all remaining labour mps is are they prepared to carry on endorsing Corbyn or are they willing to join the independent group

Indeed so. I think many more might join. These breakaway MPs deserve medals. Splitting in the Commons was always the answer – moral and technical – to the Corbynite problem.

This is utterly compelling and magnificent and tragic and probably doomed. But absolutely right.

Paging David Milliband...

philiph said:

From the New Independent Group website.
Who is this? Anyone know?

The Independent Group of MPs is supported by Gemini A Ltd a company limited by guarantee.

Registered address:
3rd Floor
1 Ashley Road
Altrincham
Cheshire
WA14 2DT
UK

(And what happened to the twin, who I assume is Gemini

its just a shell at the moment https://companycheck.co.uk/company/11770529/GEMINI-A-LTD/companies-house-data

Pretty clear Chukka thinks this will be a new party in the end.

It'll be interesting to see the first opinion polls with this new grouping as an option.

Slackbladder said:

Regardless of anything else, chuka is inspiring...

He is. Best so far.

_Anazina_ said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Slackbladder said:

This is full on attack ripping corbs to shreds

It is astonishing in the unremitting attack on Corbyn and those around him. It is not just the EU but the wider anti-semitism, the anti west attitude and bullying

The question for all remaining labour mps is are they prepared to carry on endorsing Corbyn or are they willing to join the independent group

Indeed so. I think many more might join. These breakaway MPs deserve medals. Splitting in the Commons was always the answer – moral and technical – to the Corbynite problem.

Even as a conservative these mps have made me so very proud of them. Let us hope this does succeed and enable those of us who reject the hard brexiteers and the hard left to find hope for our politics and country

rottenborough said:

Pretty clear Chukka thinks this will be a new party in the end.

If they set something up. i'd be in line to join them.

Umnuna much the best.....

Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....

'Life's messy. Clean it up'

https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1097444659549401088

"A strong economy means we can invest in our public services." - Cameron 2010 or TIG 2019?

IanB2 said:

kjohnw said:

And the winners today are: the Tories

Too early to say

It doesn't help their immediate problem over Brexit

If they were really cunning they will have some more ready to leave in the coming days, where they can claim we were inspired by them, corbyn outriders disgust me in their reaction to this news..and a few tories who will claim may / brexit / etc.

AndyJS said:

Their website has crashed already. Too many people trying to access it.

It's working sporadically.

Roger said:

Umnuna much the best.....

Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....

'Life's messy. Clean it up'

Chuka said nothing memorable

Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts

She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism

Morris_Dancer said:

Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?

It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.

murali_s said:

A sad day for the Labour party - but a necessary one.

These 7 MPs are very brave and principled. Compare and contrast to the the rest of the HoC.

It probably will not work, but they have done a brave and principled thing.

https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1097445711845695489

Very centrist manifesto on the website (compared to their pretty left-wing (as you would expect) statements today):

Britain works best as a diverse, mixed social market economy, in which well-regulated private enterprise can reward aspiration and drive economic progress and where government has the responsibility to ensure the sound stewardship of taxpayer’s money and a stable, fair and balanced economy.
A strong economy means we can invest in our public services. We believe the collective provision of public services and the NHS can be delivered through government action, improving health and educational life chances, protecting the public, safeguarding the vulnerable, ensuring dignity at every stage of life and placing individuals at the heart of decision-making.
The people of this country have the ability to create fairer, more prosperous communities for present and future generations. We believe that this creativity is best realised in a society which fosters individual freedom and supports all families.
The barriers of poverty, prejudice and discrimination facing individuals should be removed and advancement occur on the basis of merit, with inequalities reduced through the extension of opportunity, giving individuals the skills and means to open new doors and fulfil their ambitions.
Individuals are capable of taking responsibility if opportunities are offered to them, everybody can and should make a contribution to society and that contribution should be recognised. Paid work should be secure and pay should be fair.
Our free media, the rule of law, and our open, tolerant and respectful democratic society should be cherished and renewed.
We believe that our parliamentary democracy in which our elected representatives deliberate, decide and provide leadership, held accountable by their whole electorate is the best system of representing the views of the British people.
In order to face the challenges and opportunities presented by globalisation, migration and technological advances, we believe the multilateral, international rules-based order must be strengthened and reformed. We believe in maintaining strong alliances with our closest European and international allies on trade, regulation, defence, security and counter-terrorism
As part of the global community we have a responsibility to future generations to protect our environment, safeguard the planet, plan development sustainably and to act on the urgency of climate change.
Power should be devolved to the most appropriate level, trusting and involving local communities. More powers and representation should be given to local government to act in the best interests of their communities.

rottenborough said:

Slackbladder said:

rottenborough said:

Pretty clear Chukka thinks this will be a new party in the end.

If they set something up. i'd be in line to join them.

https://www.theindependent.group/statement

They are seeking signing ups and donations.

It is happening.

This could be a snowball that becomes an avalanche.

Or it could melt into a damp squib.

oxfordsimon said:

Roger said:

Umnuna much the best.....

Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....

'Life's messy. Clean it up'

Chuka said nothing memorable

Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts

She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism

A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.

david_herdson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?

It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.

In effect they have - but have been sensible (or not had enough time) to avoid tying themselves to names, colours, manifestos etc - which makes sense since if a batch of Tories do decide to join them, it can be a genuine cross-party creation.

Well I didnt think it would happen this soon. A ballsy but rather selfish move that will really screw Labour's electoral chances. May must be considering an election if more follow and they stand as Independents.
Would expect Wollaston to join them (she in no way is a Conservative) though for some reason I feel Soubry has some Tory genes underneath all the Pro European bluster.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1097441941527162880

Sometimes people want and need the truth.

Never catch on with politicians though.....

As a Labour supporter I am worried and I think I am right to be worried. We saw what Macron was able to do in France. Formed a new Centrist Party - En Marche - and a couple of years later he sweeps to power. Dynamism, intellect, yes, but the main thing was that his timing was right. There is no reason, if he too has got the timing right, why Mike Gapes cannot do exactly the same here.

IanB2 said:

kjohnw said:

And the winners today are: the Tories

Too early to say

I think it is very much too early to say. My personal meandering political stroll from Conservative to "none of the above" may take another slight detour. I realise I am representative of nothing, but still.

From Vince: "The Liberal Democrats are open to working with like-minded groups and individuals in order to give the people the final say on Brexit, with the option to remain in the EU. We will be engaging in talks to progress both that campaign and a wider political agenda. #LabourSplit"

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Very centrist manifesto on the website (compared to their pretty left-wing (as you would expect) statements today):

Britain works best as a diverse, mixed social market economy, in which well-regulated private enterprise can reward aspiration and drive economic progress and where government has the responsibility to ensure the sound stewardship of taxpayer’s money and a stable, fair and balanced economy.
A strong economy means we can invest in our public services. We believe the collective provision of public services and the NHS can be delivered through government action, improving health and educational life chances, protecting the public, safeguarding the vulnerable, ensuring dignity at every stage of life and placing individuals at the heart of decision-making.
The people of this country have the ability to create fairer, more prosperous communities for present and future generations. We believe that this creativity is best realised in a society which fosters individual freedom and supports all families.
The barriers of poverty, prejudice and discrimination facing individuals should be removed and advancement occur on the basis of merit, with inequalities reduced through the extension of opportunity, giving individuals the skills and means to open new doors and fulfil their ambitions.
Individuals are capable of taking responsibility if opportunities are offered to them, everybody can and should make a contribution to society and that contribution should be recognised. Paid work should be secure and pay should be fair.
Our free media, the rule of law, and our open, tolerant and respectful democratic society should be cherished and renewed.
We believe that our parliamentary democracy in which our elected representatives deliberate, decide and provide leadership, held accountable by their whole electorate is the best system of representing the views of the British people.
In order to face the challenges and opportunities presented by globalisation, migration and technological advances, we believe the multilateral, international rules-based order must be strengthened and reformed. We believe in maintaining strong alliances with our closest European and international allies on trade, regulation, defence, security and counter-terrorism
As part of the global community we have a responsibility to future generations to protect our environment, safeguard the planet, plan development sustainably and to act on the urgency of climate change.
Power should be devolved to the most appropriate level, trusting and involving local communities. More powers and representation should be given to local government to act in the best interests of their communities.

This is managerial balls. I prefer Corbo's Sturm und Drang.

As Lenin said; without a revolutionary theory there can be no revolutionary movement. There is no theory here.

williamglenn said:

TOPPING said:

OK well the main question is simple: is this a mini-opposition breakaway Labour group working to overthrow the hated Tories, or is it a come all ye cross-party, centrist grouping.

Website seems to suggest the latter; the speeches the former.

Doing it as an loose group of independents rather than a new party is quite smart as it can become a repository for MPs from any side who think the current parties are broken.

Which somewhat invites the question of why they haven't mopped a bunch of the existing ones up already? If Woodcock/Lloyd are deemed personae non grata due to being not anti-Brexit, what does that say?

So presumably this "Independence Group" is a bit like how the Gang Of Four launched the Council For Social Democracy in January 1981 which became the SDP in March 1981?

I'm guessing the formation of the new party will be after 29th March?

"I accept a Labour led government is infinitely better than any other election outcome" has a remarkable "well, if we must" reluctance to it.

Will The Independent Group put up a candidate in Newport West?

Am wondering if other Lab MPs will leave Corbyn's rump later this week, they might not be happy by the response of some of Corbyn's followers to long serving MPs.

kinabalu said:

As a Labour supporter I am worried and I think I am right to be worried. We saw what Macron was able to do in France. Formed a new Centrist Party - En Marche - and a couple of years later he sweeps to power. Dynamism, intellect, yes, but the main thing was that his timing was right. There is no reason, if he too has got the timing right, why Mike Gapes cannot do exactly the same here.

Maybe your hope for a GE is somewhat diminished

Danny565 said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

If they were really cunning they will have some more ready to leave in the coming days, where they can claim we were inspired by them, corbyn outriders disgust me in their reaction to this news..and a few tories who will claim may / brexit / etc.

Frank Field and John Woodcock surely

I don't think they'd want Hopkins or Ivan Lewis but not sure they could say no.

The pitch to Tories ("we will never let in a Conservative government") is interesting but possible

Woodcock ain't going to be allowed in - they're not quite THAT daft as to allow in an alleged sex pest in the current climate.

I don't see why Field would join a group which has opposing Brexit as one of it's MO's (though, interestingly, I see their "statement" doesn't expressly commit to opposing Brexit, just some waffle about "strong alliances with European allies", which is the type of thing even May spouts).

I don't think they would announce either, I think they would just be in the same circles.

If there is a party launch - likely after 29 March - then they could be quietly brought into the fold.

Who gets put up first to defend the Corbyn position on BBC News - Owen Jones?! Seriously?

"Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby."

Christ @Roger wake up.

kinabalu said:

As a Labour supporter I am worried and I think I am right to be worried. We saw what Macron was able to do in France. Formed a new Centrist Party - En Marche - and a couple of years later he sweeps to power. Dynamism, intellect, yes, but the main thing was that his timing was right. There is no reason, if he too has got the timing right, why Mike Gapes cannot do exactly the same here.

Dry..

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1097444659549401088

This is key now - those Lab MPs who stay are now tied to the great leaders project so don't need to sign the 'vow'.... they are in that ship unless they join the Independent Group.

Fair play to them.