Distinct lack of Tories in that group. Solid work by the whips. Hopefully we can stop this stupid deselection game otherwise some MPs who have nothing to lose will join this breakaway.
I don't think Tory MPs will join this breakaway group, but I think it is very likely that some Tory MPs will similarly choose to become independents, and they might work with the Labour refuseniks on specific issues. It could well be a large group of ex-Tory MPs if we're heading for a no-deal crash-out.
Very centrist manifesto on the website (compared to their pretty left-wing (as you would expect) statements today):
Britain works best as a diverse, mixed social market economy, in which well-regulated private enterprise can reward aspiration and drive economic progress and where government has the responsibility to ensure the sound stewardship of taxpayer’s money and a stable, fair and balanced economy. A strong economy means we can invest in our public services. We believe the collective provision of public services and the NHS can be delivered through government action, improving health and educational life chances, protecting the public, safeguarding the vulnerable, ensuring dignity at every stage of life and placing individuals at the heart of decision-making. The people of this country have the ability to create fairer, more prosperous communities for present and future generations. We believe that this creativity is best realised in a society which fosters individual freedom and supports all families. The barriers of poverty, prejudice and discrimination facing individuals should be removed and advancement occur on the basis of merit, with inequalities reduced through the extension of opportunity, giving individuals the skills and means to open new doors and fulfil their ambitions. Individuals are capable of taking responsibility if opportunities are offered to them, everybody can and should make a contribution to society and that contribution should be recognised. Paid work should be secure and pay should be fair. Our free media, the rule of law, and our open, tolerant and respectful democratic society should be cherished and renewed. We believe that our parliamentary democracy in which our elected representatives deliberate, decide and provide leadership, held accountable by their whole electorate is the best system of representing the views of the British people. In order to face the challenges and opportunities presented by globalisation, migration and technological advances, we believe the multilateral, international rules-based order must be strengthened and reformed. We believe in maintaining strong alliances with our closest European and international allies on trade, regulation, defence, security and counter-terrorism As part of the global community we have a responsibility to future generations to protect our environment, safeguard the planet, plan development sustainably and to act on the urgency of climate change. Power should be devolved to the most appropriate level, trusting and involving local communities. More powers and representation should be given to local government to act in the best interests of their communities.
Well, there's nothing there I disagree with. Since I've voted Conservative all my life, I think that probably means there's not much there that most people could disagree with. Which means it says nothing at all.
Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.
The 1980s showed how difficult it was for a breakaway party, even in alliance with the Liberals, and even with more than two dozen MPs including some really big names.
If they were really cunning they will have some more ready to leave in the coming days, where they can claim we were inspired by them, corbyn outriders disgust me in their reaction to this news..and a few tories who will claim may / brexit / etc.
Yep, a large number today would be news for a few days, but it would much better to make it seem like a party gaining new followers. If they could get a few MPs a week the press would have a field day speculating about who is next, and it would keep them in the limelight.
Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.
In effect they have - but have been sensible (or not had enough time) to avoid tying themselves to names, colours, manifestos etc - which makes sense since if a batch of Tories do decide to join them, it can be a genuine cross-party creation.
No, I disagree. Not launching looks weak and unsure; as if they still want to return to Labour. They can't now: this break is irreversable (at least, not for many years until the bitterness is over). They should stake their ground and appeal to others to join them. At the moment, what would others be joining? Who knows.
Well I didnt think it would happen this soon. A ballsy but rather selfish move that will really screw Labour's electoral chances. May must be considering an election if more follow and they stand as Independents. Would expect Wollaston to join them (she in no way is a Conservative) though for some reason I feel Soubry has some Tory genes underneath all the Pro European bluster.
Heidi Allen is another Tory MP that does not seem to be a Tory in any shape or form.
At the moment, as a grouping of MPs it will be interesting who outside joins them as fellow travellers. Balls joining would put intolerable media pressure on Cooper. And whilst being limited to current MPs, they can keep Blair at some distance. When a new party gets formed, issues like that rise to the surface.
Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.
In effect they have - but have been sensible (or not had enough time) to avoid tying themselves to names, colours, manifestos etc - which makes sense since if a batch of Tories do decide to join them, it can be a genuine cross-party creation.
No, I disagree. Not launching looks weak and unsure; as if they still want to return to Labour. They can't now: this break is irreversable (at least, not for many years until the bitterness is over). They should stake their ground and appeal to others to join them. At the moment, what would others be joining? Who knows.
They have staked their ground and have made that appeal. They just haven't started to erect the paraphernalia of a new party that could deter Tory defectors
As a Labour supporter I am worried and I think I am right to be worried. We saw what Macron was able to do in France. Formed a new Centrist Party - En Marche - and a couple of years later he sweeps to power. Dynamism, intellect, yes, but the main thing was that his timing was right. There is no reason, if he too has got the timing right, why Mike Gapes cannot do exactly the same here.
Very centrist manifesto on the website (compared to their pretty left-wing (as you would expect) statements today):
Britain works best as a diverse, mixed social market economy, in which well-regulated private enterprise can reward aspiration and drive economic progress and where government has the responsibility to ensure the sound stewardship of taxpayer’s money and a stable, fair and balanced economy.... SNIP As part of the global community we have a responsibility to future generations to protect our environment, safeguard the planet, plan development sustainably and to act on the urgency of climate change. Power should be devolved to the most appropriate level, trusting and involving local communities. More powers and representation should be given to local government to act in the best interests of their communities.
This is managerial balls. I prefer Corbo's Sturm und Drang.
As Lenin said; without a revolutionary theory there can be no revolutionary movement. There is no theory here.
The market for revolutions is a thin one. Particularly after the Brexit debacle.
Britain works best as a diverse, mixed social market economy, in which well-regulated private enterprise can reward aspiration and drive economic progress and where government has the responsibility to ensure the sound stewardship of taxpayer’s money and a stable, fair and balanced economy.
Just the one taxpayer?
The whole site could have used some proof-reading. I'd give examples but it has crashed.
So presumably this "Independence Group" is a bit like how the Gang Of Four launched the Council For Social Democracy in January 1981 which became the SDP in March 1981?
I think they remained within the Labour party until the SDP was formed.
Well I didnt think it would happen this soon. A ballsy but rather selfish move that will really screw Labour's electoral chances. May must be considering an election if more follow and they stand as Independents. Would expect Wollaston to join them (she in no way is a Conservative) though for some reason I feel Soubry has some Tory genes underneath all the Pro European bluster.
Heidi Allen is another Tory MP that does not seem to be a Tory in any shape or form.
At least 3 of today's 7 all but left Labour a while ago.
At the moment, as a grouping of MPs it will be interesting who outside joins them as fellow travellers. Balls joining would put intolerable media pressure on Cooper. And whilst being limited to current MPs, they can keep Blair at some distance. When a new party gets formed, issues like that rise to the surface.
Blair said yesterday that people are going to be very surprised how many voters are looking for a new centrist home.
Is his radar as good as it ever was? We will see in coming weeks.
Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.
In effect they have - but have been sensible (or not had enough time) to avoid tying themselves to names, colours, manifestos etc - which makes sense since if a batch of Tories do decide to join them, it can be a genuine cross-party creation.
No, I disagree. Not launching looks weak and unsure; as if they still want to return to Labour. They can't now: this break is irreversable (at least, not for many years until the bitterness is over). They should stake their ground and appeal to others to join them. At the moment, what would others be joining? Who knows.
They have staked their ground and have made that appeal. They just haven't started to erect the paraphernalia of a new party that could deter Tory defectors
Well I didnt think it would happen this soon. A ballsy but rather selfish move that will really screw Labour's electoral chances. May must be considering an election if more follow and they stand as Independents. Would expect Wollaston to join them (she in no way is a Conservative) though for some reason I feel Soubry has some Tory genes underneath all the Pro European bluster.
Heidi Allen is another Tory MP that does not seem to be a Tory in any shape or form.
South Cambridgeshire District Council went Lib Dem at the last locals. She's the one MP who probably has a better chance of re-election if she does defect.
Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.
I am not so sure. They are clearly looking to build something from the grassroots up. They are clear they do not have all the answers. Better to be honest about that than pretend otherwise.
My GE scenario (as you know) is that TM calls it if she cannot get a Brexit through this parliament.
Now this 'split' probably hurts Labour's chances in a GE. So does this make it more or less likely that TM would go for it in the event her Brexit is stymied?
Very centrist manifesto on the website (compared to their pretty left-wing (as you would expect) statements today):
Britain works best as a diverse, mixed social market economy, in which well-regulated private enterprise can reward aspiration and drive economic progress and where government has the responsibility to ensure the sound stewardship of taxpayer’s money and a stable, fair and balanced economy. A strong economy means we can invest in our public services. We believe the collective provision of public services and the NHS can be delivered through government action, improving health and educational life chances, protecting the public, safeguarding the vulnerable, ensuring dignity at every stage of life and placing individuals at the heart of decision-making. The people of this country have the ability to create fairer, more prosperous communities for present and future generations. We believe that this creativity is best realised in a society which fosters individual freedom and supports all families. The barriers of poverty, prejudice and discrimination facing individuals should be removed and advancement occur on the basis of merit, with inequalities reduced through the extension of opportunity, giving individuals the skills and means to open new doors and fulfil their ambitions. Individuals are capable of taking responsibility if opportunities are offered to them, everybody can and should make a contribution to society and that contribution should be recognised. Paid work should be secure and pay should be fair.
As part of the global community we have a responsibility to future generations to protect our environment, safeguard the planet, plan development sustainably and to act on the urgency of climate change. Power should be devolved to the most appropriate level, trusting and involving local communities. More powers and representation should be given to local government to act in the best interests of their communities.
Well, there's nothing there I disagree with. Since I've voted Conservative all my life, I think that probably means there's not much there that most people could disagree with. Which means it says nothing at all.
"Our aim is to pursue policies that are evidence-based, not led by ideology, taking a long-term perspective to the challenges of the 21st century in the national interest,"
In the current climate, this is a pretty revolutionary and unique approach.
Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....
'Life's messy. Clean it up'
Chuka said nothing memorable
Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts
She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism
A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.
At the moment, as a grouping of MPs it will be interesting who outside joins them as fellow travellers. Balls joining would put intolerable media pressure on Cooper. And whilst being limited to current MPs, they can keep Blair at some distance. When a new party gets formed, issues like that rise to the surface.
Blair said yesterday that people are going to be very surprised how many voters are looking for a new centrist home.
Is his radar as good as it ever was? We will see in coming weeks.
His "radar" also told him that Theresa May had a guaranteed landslide coming her way, and that Labour would shed masses of votes to the Lib Dems in 2017 unless they took a Remain position, so....
This inevitably reminds me of the launch of the SDP when a much younger less cynical DavidL got very excited.
The problem for me now is that this is clearly going to be an unequivocally pro-EU group. I suspect I may agree with them on many other matters but that's a deal breaker, at least until Brexit is bedded in.
I wonder if they have been smart enough to hold back some recruits to keep the story going?
So in other words they are slightly rerunning the last Labour leadership election with a pretty centrist/left of centre pitch (a la Cooper et al back then) and hoping that whereas people then were happy to back Corbyn for lolz at that time, they might now realise what a shocking error that was.
We have to remember that the SDP attracted only 1 Tory MP defector IIRC - so I don't see the new 'group' attracting many more this time round.
And 28 Labour MPs joined the SDP - so it remains to be seen whether those numbers are possible now.
I think there will be more Tory defectors than the SDP got due to Brexit.
We know there are two or three Con MPs who are effectively sitting as Independents to begin with, plus the same again who are most of the way there. Whether they jump or not is less important than it might seem.
Their server has crashed because a lot of people are trying to sign up
I don't think viewing this through the paradigm of the SDP is wise. This has been thought through- with lessons learned from Macron etc. Its only the beginning of something which may accelerate if they get a positive response.
They will have coordinated plans for the Libdems and the Tory left- in my view only one of the Tory or labour parties survive this- the question will be which one.
If they were really cunning they will have some more ready to leave in the coming days, where they can claim we were inspired by them, corbyn outriders disgust me in their reaction to this news..and a few tories who will claim may / brexit / etc.
Yep, a large number today would be news for a few days, but it would much better to make it seem like a party gaining new followers. If they could get a few MPs a week the press would have a field day speculating about who is next, and it would keep them in the limelight.
We saw that with the MP defections to UKIP, but it then came to be seen as shifty, as Reckless was thought to have been dishonest in the timing of his defection.
Any MP who is late to defect has to answer why later was better than earlier. Orchestrating a dripfeed would risk looking contrived.
At the moment, as a grouping of MPs it will be interesting who outside joins them as fellow travellers. Balls joining would put intolerable media pressure on Cooper. And whilst being limited to current MPs, they can keep Blair at some distance. When a new party gets formed, issues like that rise to the surface.
Blair said yesterday that people are going to be very surprised how many voters are looking for a new centrist home.
Is his radar as good as it ever was? We will see in coming weeks.
Their twitter following is rising by about 1,000 every five or six minutes. Which means nothing, of course.
"Our aim is to pursue policies that are evidence-based, not led by ideology, taking a long-term perspective to the challenges of the 21st century in the national interest,"
In the current climate, this is a pretty revolutionary and unique approach.
Sounds good, but I suspect that the public won't be all that keen to hear many of those truths.
Well I didnt think it would happen this soon. A ballsy but rather selfish move that will really screw Labour's electoral chances. May must be considering an election if more follow and they stand as Independents. Would expect Wollaston to join them (she in no way is a Conservative) though for some reason I feel Soubry has some Tory genes underneath all the Pro European bluster.
Heidi Allen is another Tory MP that does not seem to be a Tory in any shape or form.
South Cambridgeshire District Council went Lib Dem at the last locals. She's the one MP who probably has a better chance of re-election if she does defect.
Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats. Chuka could even get up to 30% in his seat if he's lucky.
So in other words they are slightly rerunning the last Labour leadership election with a pretty centrist/left of centre pitch (a la Cooper et al back then) and hoping that whereas people then were happy to back Corbyn for lolz at that time, they might now realise what a shocking error that was.
As said upthread, the last Labour leadership election pitch was we agree with Jezza.
Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratings
Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.
I am not so sure. They are clearly looking to build something from the grassroots up. They are clear they do not have all the answers. Better to be honest about that than pretend otherwise.
Do you really believe Umunna when he says that about building from the grassroots and not having the answers? If you want voters to agree with you, you have to make them think it was their idea, a smooth talking politico like Chuka knows that better than most. They are just using a tried and tested strategy of throwing out vague sound bites whilst saying they’ll listen.
Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.
I am not so sure. They are clearly looking to build something from the grassroots up. They are clear they do not have all the answers. Better to be honest about that than pretend otherwise.
Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....
'Life's messy. Clean it up'
Chuka said nothing memorable
Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts
She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism
A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.
I'm not sure that that's a widespread view. I wasn't talking about her keeping her Liverpool seat but whether she could attract others to the EU/centrist cause and I don't think 99% of the population have even heard of her.
Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.
I am not so sure. They are clearly looking to build something from the grassroots up. They are clear they do not have all the answers. Better to be honest about that than pretend otherwise.
Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
This is almost certainly what happens. This is going to hurt Labour very badly.
Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratings
Can't believe there hasn't been a serious discussion behind the scenes on that.
Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
This is almost certainly what happens. This is going to hurt Labour very badly.
This presumably isn't correct. If their plan is to target marginals, then their plan is to ensure that the Tories win the next election.
Their best hope of retaining their seats is surely to stand where they are already known/where Brexit is the most salient issue and Labour are popular.
No. Tories need to win marginals too.
If its Chukka and 4/5 Labour MPs standing on an anti-Brexit platform... they are going to be taking Labour voters predominantly, not Tory votes. So they will make it much more likely that the Tories win those marginals.
If on the other hand, they stood against Kate Hoey in Vauxhall, well frankly they'd get plenty of Labour support and probably win the seat.
I doubt that they would poll many votes beyond those who would otherwise have voted Libdem.
Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....
'Life's messy. Clean it up'
Chuka said nothing memorable
Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts
She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism
A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.
Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratings
Nah, that knackers their hopes of winning significant numbers of Labour voters even more - it means they'll get contaminated with the Lib Dems' albatross of "they'll just let the Tories in".
Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
I thought that. However, there was an attack on the LDs too in there. "Lost the trust of the electorate". Which seemed curious.
So in other words they are slightly rerunning the last Labour leadership election with a pretty centrist/left of centre pitch (a la Cooper et al back then) and hoping that whereas people then were happy to back Corbyn for lolz at that time, they might now realise what a shocking error that was.
As said upthread, the last Labour leadership election pitch was we agree with Jezza.
This is not that
No indeed - as I said, they have learned from that and how.
Gapes is going to be their problem. Most of the others have a modern outlook and the ability to reinvent themselves for the modern age; Gapes always will be an old labour dinosaur.
Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
This is almost certainly what happens. This is going to hurt Labour very badly.
Tories now odds on for the next GE sadly.
a sort of alliance?
The more thinking members of Jezza's inner cabinet have been terrified this would happen for months Stephen Bush has written in Newstatesman recently.
Yet, nobody seemed prepared to try and stop it by doing anything about the causes.
Jezza's team have only themselves to blame for this.
Tories at 1.86 for most seats next time might be value since presumably this is going to split the Labour vote.
Don't you think that those who share their criticism of Corbyn and anti Semitism in Labour have already removed their support in current polling from Labour. Surely this is the reason why Conservatives are polling so high. So many have said on here that Labour should be well ahead in the polls. Surely this new movement is appealing to those who have already not supporting Corbyn and Labour in the polls.
It could actually hit Tory share in the polls as much if not more than Labour.
Unalloyed good news. It'll be bees around a honeypot....
'Life's messy. Clean it up'
Chuka said nothing memorable
Berger is head and shoulders above the rest of these very small beasts
She also has a link to Labour royalty - given her family connection to Manny Shinwell - who also resigned from Labour in protest at the 1980s extremism
A Tory view. Berger is a one trick pony. Umunna is the magnet. Berger has very limited appeal beyond a tiny Jewish lobby.
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.
I'm not sure that that's a widespread view. I wasn't talking about her keeping her Liverpool seat but whether she could attract others to the EU/centrist cause and I don't think 99% of the population have even heard of her.
...all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men....
I'm pretty sure that's not the limited view you imagine it might be.
Gapes is going to be their problem. Most of the others have a modern outlook and the ability to reinvent themselves for the modern age; Gapes always will be an old labour dinosaur.
Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
I thought that. However, there was an attack on the LDs too in there. "Lost the trust of the electorate". Which seemed curious.
But clearly true, going on their poll ratings. Although I thought that comment was prefaced by "major parties"?
Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
This is almost certainly what happens. This is going to hurt Labour very badly.
Tories now odds on for the next GE sadly.
A premature view.
We shouldn't discount the effect that a new Farage party will have on the Tory vote.
The next election could see many seats won with remarkably low vote shares with FPTP . Now there is a bet in there somewhere.
Maybe they could come to some sort of understanding with the LDs so they don't both contest the same seats at the next election. Has anyone thought of that before?
This is almost certainly what happens. This is going to hurt Labour very badly.
Gapes is going to be their problem. Most of the others have a modern outlook and the ability to reinvent themselves for the modern age; Gapes always will be an old labour dinosaur.
The Prescott role then?
If they become cast as Labour in exile, for sure. But I reckon Chuka and the others have bigger hopes.
Comments
"A Jewish woman has been hounded out of the Labour party. Which side of that line are we on?"
I find it hilarious that Chuka calls for honesty.
Particularly after the Brexit debacle.
Is his radar as good as it ever was? We will see in coming weeks.
Dunno about that.
Really not sure at all that you are right there.
My GE scenario (as you know) is that TM calls it if she cannot get a Brexit through this parliament.
Now this 'split' probably hurts Labour's chances in a GE. So does this make it more or less likely that TM would go for it in the event her Brexit is stymied?
Perhaps more.
And 28 Labour MPs joined the SDP - so it remains to be seen whether those numbers are possible now.
In the current climate, this is a pretty revolutionary and unique approach.
The problem for me now is that this is clearly going to be an unequivocally pro-EU group. I suspect I may agree with them on many other matters but that's a deal breaker, at least until Brexit is bedded in.
I wonder if they have been smart enough to hold back some recruits to keep the story going?
I don't think viewing this through the paradigm of the SDP is wise. This has been thought through- with lessons learned from Macron etc. Its only the beginning of something which may accelerate if they get a positive response.
They will have coordinated plans for the Libdems and the Tory left- in my view only one of the Tory or labour parties survive this- the question will be which one.
https://twitter.com/TheIndGroup
Any MP who is late to defect has to answer why later was better than earlier. Orchestrating a dripfeed would risk looking contrived.
https://twitter.com/KTHopkins/status/1097440986257649664
Has Tommy Robinson pronounced?
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats. Chuka could even get up to 30% in his seat if he's lucky.
This is not that
Angela Smith was Core Group Negative
Gavin Shuker and Mike Gaps were "Neutral but not Hostile"
Spot on.
Which is presumably why they're avoiding the SDP mistake of casting themselves as a replacement for Labour.
Tories now odds on for the next GE sadly.
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1097451297802985472
Sounds a bit like this...
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1097419712546422784
Which seemed curious.
Yet, nobody seemed prepared to try and stop it by doing anything about the causes.
Jezza's team have only themselves to blame for this.
It could actually hit Tory share in the polls as much if not more than Labour.
I'm pretty sure that's not the limited view you imagine it might be.
We shouldn't discount the effect that a new Farage party will have on the Tory vote.
The next election could see many seats won with remarkably low vote shares with FPTP . Now there is a bet in there somewhere.
Be careful of what happens when your dreams come true.