Their website still seems to be down, which is odd if the home page is basically static as it should be cached by Cloudflare (their CDN). Maybe they set it up wrongly.
On the other hand, it might be that its upstream processing has been overwhelmed with people trying to join or donate.
See their latest tweet
The tweet says the web site is down -- and was sent more than half an hour after I posted that fact on pb, and I'd not have been first to notice. It rather suggests their web and social media team is asleep at the wheel.
I suspect "team" is one of their SpAds
It was up and down all through the event. Their Twitter following is already twice The Brexit Party's (low bar)
Mr. Blue, Corbyn was ignoring pro-second referendum Labour MPs anyway.
It was only a few days ago that we heard Starmer had been told a threat for Labour to back said referendum, which had been agreed to be included in a letter, had been 'accidentally' omitted.
What the Seven really need now is a big name in Corbyn's frontbench team to join them. Someone who has tried to do the right thing, but been treated with contempt.
Time to leave, Keir Starmer.....
They need a Tory MP first, to establish that they are a broad church, rather than an ideologically pure cult that was unable to compromise with its existing Party.
My GE scenario (as you know) is that TM calls it if she cannot get a Brexit through this parliament.
Now this 'split' probably hurts Labour's chances in a GE. So does this make it more or less likely that TM would go for it in the event her Brexit is stymied?
Perhaps more.
The next few months will be fascinating and I expect more labour mps will leave labour for this group
If it gains real momentum (forgive the pun) we may see a public groundswell towards them and of course will damage Corbyn.
A GE may come along but I am not expecting one this year
If May gets her deal through at the end of March (just humour me!), then THAT is when Corbyn is most at risk. He will have failed to prevent Brexit. And without the cover of Brexit, Labour MPs have the stark issue of anti-semitism to focus on.
I do not need to humour you as I still think she will get a deal
And as you say, Corbyn will then be very exposed
Prediction. If May gets the deal through she will have a very good local election results.
Doesn’t this split make it less likely that a second referendum will take place? Corbyn no longer needs to heed the Labour Europhiles, as they are tainted with disloyalty.
No, Roger, she appeals to all those women who have been slighted, overlooked, condescended to, patronised, mocked, sidelined, bullied and ignored by smug, self-satisfied and ignorant men who refuse to see what is happening in front of their eyes.
whether she could attract others to the EU/centrist cause and I don't think 99% of the population have even heard of her.
With great respect, I don’t think you have the first clue of how women feel about being slighted in the work place. The things I have described above have happened to every single woman of my acquaintance, including myself, no matter what the industry or sector or their political views or age. And it is still going on.
Labour looks like an old-fashioned mysogynistic party where the behaviour of individual men, including those close to the leadership, is as bad as as any seen anywhere.
I’ve no idea whether this grouping will be successful. I do know one of the women closely involved in it (not Luciana) and I know that she has been appallingly bullied and treated by those within Labour who claim to be in favour of womens’ rights in theory but cannot stomach any individual woman speaking up for herself in practice.
That strikes with a chord with rather more women across the political spectrum than you might suppose.
I agree with everything in your post. I loathe the labour leadership for the reasons you give and many more. I wouldn't vote for Corbyn's labour under any circumstances. But this is hopefully about a new grouping that will stop people like me (and maybe you) having nowhere to go. I can't see Berger being the magnet that will get this new grouping off the ground. Umunna on the other hand or Cooper (if she could be persuaded to join) might.
That may be so. I would certainly like to have a sensible party to vote for. Whether this is it I don’t know. I know well one of the people behind the scenes and they have all the right instincts. So I wish them well.
Umunna is an ex-Herbert Smith lawyer. I have spent so much time with people like him that I’m rather allergic to their appeal. Cooper seems to be a bit colourless, though she has been a bit more effective over Brexit in recent weeks. But I have some time for Berger because she has shown some courage and, as I am sure you will guess from some of my other posts, this is rarer than it ought to be and is something I admire.
She may not be a leader. Who knows? But she is showing up a very dark and unpleasant side to Labour, something which rips the heart out of everything they claim to be.
Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratings
Nah, that knackers their hopes of winning significant numbers of Labour voters even more - it means they'll get contaminated with the Lib Dems' albatross of "they'll just let the Tories in".
I think they're faced with an impossible task under our electoral system. But not so hard to cause a lot of damage to Labour's electoral prospects.
IMO, this sort of analysis completely misunderstands what sort of constituencies this party's support is going to come from -- they'll be getting sod-all votes in Nuneaton, for example (if they even field a candidate there).
Don't agree with that. I think there's a lot of people all over the country who won't vote Tory but can't vote Labour. It won't win them seats in Middle England but it'll give them the credibility they need to contest their target areas.
Well, we'll soon find out, but I don't think "Middle England" is going to be at all attracted to a party which makes EU membership, and generally retaining the status quo, its main objectives.
IMO, this party's main market (to the extent it has one at all) will be wealthy liberals/lefties, but there's very few marginal seats with a significant concentration of them (Kensington is an exception, admittedly) - most live in ultra-safe Labour seats.
Their website still seems to be down, which is odd if the home page is basically static as it should be cached by Cloudflare (their CDN). Maybe they set it up wrongly.
On the other hand, it might be that its upstream processing has been overwhelmed with people trying to join or donate.
See their latest tweet
The tweet says the web site is down -- and was sent more than half an hour after I posted that fact on pb, and I'd not have been first to notice. It rather suggests their web and social media team is asleep at the wheel.
Or subject to a DDoS attack.
Generally Cloudflare should be able to handle that, but maybe they couldn't afford to protect themselves.
Their website still seems to be down, which is odd if the home page is basically static as it should be cached by Cloudflare (their CDN). Maybe they set it up wrongly.
On the other hand, it might be that its upstream processing has been overwhelmed with people trying to join or donate.
See their latest tweet
The tweet says the web site is down -- and was sent more than half an hour after I posted that fact on pb, and I'd not have been first to notice. It rather suggests their web and social media team is asleep at the wheel.
I suspect "team" is one of their SpAds
It was up and down all through the event. Their Twitter following is already twice The Brexit Party's (low bar)
Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.
I am not so sure. They are clearly looking to build something from the grassroots up. They are clear they do not have all the answers. Better to be honest about that than pretend otherwise.
Since when were successful parties built from the grassroots up? Unusually, Corbyn's Labour is one such movement, although that was a parasite that infected a pre-existing host.
All successful parties are driven from the top down. In this case, where only the top exists at the moment, that has to be even more so than normal.
Interesting there's no new party. What'll they do come election time?
It's an unsustainable position. They cannot now return to Labour: the bridges have been burned by this step. They have to either join another party or launch their own. They should have done it today. They've screwed up their best chance.
I am not so sure. They are clearly looking to build something from the grassroots up. They are clear they do not have all the answers. Better to be honest about that than pretend otherwise.
Since when were successful parties built from the grassroots up? Unusually, Corbyn's Labour is one such movement, although that was a parasite that infected a pre-existing host.
All successful parties are driven from the top down. In this case, where only the top exists at the moment, that has to be even more so than normal.
They can’t exactly fess up that it’s a top down, elitist movement can they? “Grassroots”, “We’re listening”, “We don’t have the answers” will have been focussed grouped to death, blatant advertising tricks, same as it ever was.
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Bizarre. The lever on Cameron only got pulled when the LibDems were no longer tying him down.
All on the centre left were reasonably content with the 2010 election. What we didn't bank on was Cameron getting such a taste for power that he ws prepared to sell the EU down the river to appeal to his UKIP wing. Blair for example would never had done that even if it meant losing power.
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Bizarre. The lever on Cameron only got pulled when the LibDems were no longer tying him down.
All on the centre left were reasonably content with the 2010 election. What we didn't bank on was Cameron getting such a taste for power that he ws prepared to sell the EU down the river to appeal to his UKIP wing. Blair for example would never had done that even if it meant losing power.
Err, you do realise that it was above all Cameron who (with no help at all from Labour) actually made the case for Remain?
Luciana Berger standing for the new party in Hendon or Bury would probably have a very good chance.
Chipping Barnet might be her best bet; it seems to be swinging more heavily to Labour than the neighbouring areas, and Theresa Villiers is a Brexiteer in a Remain area.
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Bizarre. The lever on Cameron only got pulled when the LibDems were no longer tying him down.
All on the centre left were reasonably content with the 2010 election. What we didn't bank on was Cameron getting such a taste for power that he ws prepared to sell the EU down the river to appeal to his UKIP wing. Blair for example would never had done that even if it meant losing power.
Err, you do realise that it was above all Cameron who (with no help at all from Labour) actually made the case for Remain?
I think the complaint in this case is that Cameron even let the plebs have a say.
Their website still seems to be down, which is odd if the home page is basically static as it should be cached by Cloudflare (their CDN). Maybe they set it up wrongly.
On the other hand, it might be that its upstream processing has been overwhelmed with people trying to join or donate.
See their latest tweet
The tweet says the web site is down -- and was sent more than half an hour after I posted that fact on pb, and I'd not have been first to notice. It rather suggests their web and social media team is asleep at the wheel.
Or subject to a DDoS attack.
Unless it is an official Russian DDoS attack, Cloudflare should be able to cope. I'd imagine the Independent Group's upstream processing of donations and new members (many of which will be hoaxes) can't cope because their web team tested it with only one or two simultaneous users, and Cloudflare can't cache the home page because it is badly architected and possibly because the web team did not understand all the options on the Cloudflare portal.
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Bizarre. The lever on Cameron only got pulled when the LibDems were no longer tying him down.
All on the centre left were reasonably content with the 2010 election. What we didn't bank on was Cameron getting such a taste for power that he ws prepared to sell the EU down the river to appeal to his UKIP wing. Blair for example would never had done that even if it meant losing power.
Err, you do realise that it was above all Cameron who (with no help at all from Labour) actually made the case for Remain?
In the referendum? Yes, but since he'd just spent the last 5 years telling the voters how terrible the status quo was and implying that leaving the EU might be a good idea unless he could change it, then conspicuously failed to change it, he wasn't exactly the world's most convincing advocate...
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Bizarre. The lever on Cameron only got pulled when the LibDems were no longer tying him down.
All on the centre left were reasonably content with the 2010 election. What we didn't bank on was Cameron getting such a taste for power that he ws prepared to sell the EU down the river to appeal to his UKIP wing. Blair for example would never had done that even if it meant losing power.
The sad thing is that in retrospect it's very clear that Cameron made that strategic decision well before 2010. There's an interview with Gove where he talks about how Cameron got "permission from the base" to move to the centre on social issues in return for giving them what they wanted on Europe and "national sovereignty".
Would anybody notice if Lib Dem MPs quit to join them? What they need now is some tories to jump ship.
I'd be surprised if Heidi Allen doesn't join this group.
Downthread, someone notes it would be advantageous electorally for her to do so. She has absolutely zero in common with today's gammonite Tory Party so should go for it.
Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratings
Nah, that knackers their hopes of winning significant numbers of Labour voters even more - it means they'll get contaminated with the Lib Dems' albatross of "they'll just let the Tories in".
I think they're faced with an impossible task under our electoral system. But not so hard to cause a lot of damage to Labour's electoral prospects.
IMO, this sort of analysis completely misunderstands what sort of constituencies this party's support is going to come from -- they'll be getting sod-all votes in Nuneaton, for example (if they even field a candidate there).
That reminds me very much of the people who argued that the Lib Dems would miraculously hold most of their seats in 2015 despite polling in single figures. First Past the Post can be brutal to small parties.
I see Corbyn's gang are merrily tweeting that the departing MPs should voluntarily stand down and restand in by-elections, presumably on the basis that people thought they were voting for a Labour candidate in 2017.
That's a great idea, Jeremy, but how about all your city MPs do the same, on the basis that people appear to have thought in 2017 they were voting for a party that might actually oppose Brexit?
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Which is why the Lib Dems should, and I think will, elect a leader with no ties to the Coalition era.
My reading is that Moran realises Swinson is tarnished and is starting to think herself forward toward the job. Unless today changes everything, of course.
Their website still seems to be down, which is odd if the home page is basically static as it should be cached by Cloudflare (their CDN). Maybe they set it up wrongly.
On the other hand, it might be that its upstream processing has been overwhelmed with people trying to join or donate.
See their latest tweet
The tweet says the web site is down -- and was sent more than half an hour after I posted that fact on pb, and I'd not have been first to notice. It rather suggests their web and social media team is asleep at the wheel.
I suspect "team" is one of their SpAds
It was up and down all through the event. Their Twitter following is already twice The Brexit Party's (low bar)
Extrapolating that, they have 200 000 members already. Extraordinary!
We already know that from their "statement" - Clegg-esque waffle about a "mixed economy", how they essentially want to keep the economy running the way it has for the past 40 years, but put on a sadface when they see homeless people.
To be fair, there is a market for that - there's quite a lot of wealthy liberals who want to (virtue-)signal that they're compassionate and therefore not Tory, but who also don't want to actually give up any more of their income to put their "compassion" into practice (nice guys though I'm sure they are, Southam Observer and Roger are good examples of that). But it's just not a very large market, nor is it concentrated in marginal seats.
Doesn’t this split make it less likely that a second referendum will take place? Corbyn no longer needs to heed the Labour Europhiles, as they are tainted with disloyalty.
Yes, that's why the timing is so bad if they actually feel strongly about Brexit: the chance of achieving something next week to stop the lemming policy has been damaged. But interestingly, it doesn't really seem to be their focus - most of the comments at the press conference merely mentioned Brexit in passing as one of the issues.
In one sense that broadens their appeal - we alrteady have an all-about-stopping-Brexit party and it's getting nowhere. But it will damage their links to other centrists who really do feel that stopping or at least ameliorating Brexit is the immediate priority.
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Which is why the Lib Dems should, and I think will, elect a leader with no ties to the Coalition era.
My reading is that Moran realises Swinson is tarnished and is starting to think herself forward toward the job. Unless today changes everything, of course.
The Independent Group. Can anyone think of part of this sceptred isle where independence has another meaning? Or even a newspaper web site?
Look, I know this might sound like a Corbynista snow job but it just seems so badly done.
The problem you rapidly hit when naming anything is finding a suitable name that either isn't used by someone else or has connotations due to history that mean it's not much use.
Equally I suspect this is a holding pattern while Brexit pans out...
We already know that from their "statement" - Clegg-esque waffle about a "mixed economy", how they essentially want to keep the economy running the way it has for the past 40 years, but put on a sadface when they see homeless people.
To be fair, there is a market for that - there's quite a lot of wealthy liberals who want to (virtue-)signal that they're compassionate and therefore not Tory, but who also don't want to actually give up any more of their income to put their "compassion" into practice (nice guys though I'm sure they are, Southam Observer and Roger are good examples of that). But it's just not a very large market, nor is it concentrated in marginal seats.
But the market for "people who think the current Conservative government couldn't run a whelk stall, but will never vote for a party led by an unreconstructed Trotskyite" is potentially quite big, no?
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Bizarre. The lever on Cameron only got pulled when the LibDems were no longer tying him down.
All on the centre left were reasonably content with the 2010 election. What we didn't bank on was Cameron getting such a taste for power that he ws prepared to sell the EU down the river to appeal to his UKIP wing. Blair for example would never had done that even if it meant losing power.
Err, you do realise that it was above all Cameron who (with no help at all from Labour) actually made the case for Remain?
Cameron opened a pandora's box of bigotry and prejudice that surprised most of us but shouldn't have surprised him. After all they were well represented in his own party. As for Corbyn come the revolution it would be a toss up between him and Cameron who should face the firing squad first
A bit of the Wehrmacht about it. By that, I mean having to fight on too many flanks at once. The SDP had a big advantage in that they were fighting against an obvious extremist group alone.
Chukka's commandos have Brexit to contend with, as well as the Cobynites. But they do have the advantage of novelty.
Would anybody notice if Lib Dem MPs quit to join them? What they need now is some tories to jump ship.
I'd be surprised if Heidi Allen doesn't join this group.
Downthread, someone notes it would be advantageous electorally for her to do so. She has absolutely zero in common with today's gammonite Tory Party so should go for it.
The question for them is whether it is genuinely centrist a la Chuka or Labour in exile a la Gapes. The sooner a batch join, the quicker they can marginalise Gapes and his ilk.
Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratings
Nah, that knackers their hopes of winning significant numbers of Labour voters even more - it means they'll get contaminated with the Lib Dems' albatross of "they'll just let the Tories in".
I think they're faced with an impossible task under our electoral system. But not so hard to cause a lot of damage to Labour's electoral prospects.
IMO, this sort of analysis completely misunderstands what sort of constituencies this party's support is going to come from -- they'll be getting sod-all votes in Nuneaton, for example (if they even field a candidate there).
Don't agree with that. I think there's a lot of people all over the country who won't vote Tory but can't vote Labour. It won't win them seats in Middle England but it'll give them the credibility they need to contest their target areas.
Well, we'll soon find out, but I don't think "Middle England" is going to be at all attracted to a party which makes EU membership, and generally retaining the status quo, its main objectives.
IMO, this party's main market (to the extent it has one at all) will be wealthy liberals/lefties, but there's very few marginal seats with a significant concentration of them (Kensington is an exception, admittedly) - most live in ultra-safe Labour seats.
Lots of London (and some Manchester) seats might fit the bill. I can see them doing quite well in outer London seats that have been trending leftward as wealthy liberals set up families in the suburbs. Places like Chingford & Woodford Green, Ilford North, Chipping Barnet etc etc.
This presumably isn't correct. If their plan is to target marginals, then their plan is to ensure that the Tories win the next election.
Their best hope of retaining their seats is surely to stand where they are already known/where Brexit is the most salient issue and Labour are popular.
No. Tories need to win marginals too.
If its Chukka and 4/5 Labour MPs standing on an anti-Brexit platform... they are going to be taking Labour voters predominantly, not Tory votes. So they will make it much more likely that the Tories win those marginals.
If on the other hand, they stood against Kate Hoey in Vauxhall, well frankly they'd get plenty of Labour support and probably win the seat.
I doubt that they would poll many votes beyond those who would otherwise have voted Libdem.
There is a large pool of remain voters with no real political home right now so I wouldn't be too sure that the impact will be minimal. I don't think Corbyn's chances of winning a GE were that great but I think this will just about kill it off. It will reinforce the anti-semitic anti-EU image that Corbyn wants to shed.
The Independent Group. Can anyone think of part of this sceptred isle where independence has another meaning? Or even a newspaper web site?
Look, I know this might sound like a Corbynista snow job but it just seems so badly done.
The attacks by the 7 on Corbyn are going to be played ad infinitum across the media and to be honest it is stark, especially Luciana's no holds barred confrontation of Corbyn
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Which is why the Lib Dems should, and I think will, elect a leader with no ties to the Coalition era.
My reading is that Moran realises Swinson is tarnished and is starting to think herself forward toward the job. Unless today changes everything, of course.
I agree.
Moran is an empty vessel. There is nothing that looks like a political philosophy about her. She has not demonstrated anything that looks like leadership quality - she is a band-wagon jumper and virtue signaller. That doesn't make you a leader.
I know there are very few LDs who can become leader post-Cable. But it baffles me as to why Moran is seen as viable. She hasn't endeared herself to her constituents since winning her seat. Indeed her posturing has been off-putting.
I see Corbyn's gang are merrily tweeting that the departing MPs should voluntarily stand down and restand in by-elections, presumably on the basis that people thought they were voting for a Labour candidate in 2017.
That's a great idea, Jeremy, but how about all your city MPs do the same, on the basis that people appear to have thought in 2017 they were voting for a party that might actually oppose Brexit?
Why would they have thought that, since Labour's 2017 manifesto didn't oppose brexit?
But the Corbynites have a point; the people didn't know what they were voting for when they elected the splitters, so the people deserve a second vote...
The Independent Group. Can anyone think of part of this sceptred isle where independence has another meaning? Or even a newspaper web site?
Look, I know this might sound like a Corbynista snow job but it just seems so badly done.
The attacks by the 7 on Corbyn are going to be played ad infinitum across the media and to be honest it is stark, especially Luciana's no holds barred confrontation of Corbyn
Certainly makes it harder to simply dismiss as another daily mail smear on the messiah.
Doesn’t this split make it less likely that a second referendum will take place? Corbyn no longer needs to heed the Labour Europhiles, as they are tainted with disloyalty.
The pressure from the members will still be there.
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Bizarre. The lever on Cameron only got pulled when the LibDems were no longer tying him down.
All on the centre left were reasonably content with the 2010 election. What we didn't bank on was Cameron getting such a taste for power that he ws prepared to sell the EU down the river to appeal to his UKIP wing. Blair for example would never had done that even if it meant losing power.
Err, you do realise that it was above all Cameron who (with no help at all from Labour) actually made the case for Remain?
In the referendum? Yes, but since he'd just spent the last 5 years telling the voters how terrible the status quo was and implying that leaving the EU might be a good idea unless he could change it, then conspicuously failed to change it, he wasn't exactly the world's most convincing advocate...
Here is an example of Cameron advocating Remain. It is so half-hearted it makes Jeremy Corbyn sound like Ken Clarke. Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Bizarre. The lever on Cameron only got pulled when the LibDems were no longer tying him down.
All on the centre left were reasonably content with the 2010 election. What we didn't bank on was Cameron getting such a taste for power that he ws prepared to sell the EU down the river to appeal to his UKIP wing. Blair for example would never had done that even if it meant losing power.
Err, you do realise that it was above all Cameron who (with no help at all from Labour) actually made the case for Remain?
I think the complaint in this case is that Cameron even let the plebs have a say.
That at least would be an honest and arguable criticism.
Liz Kendall generally tweets or retweets several times a day, but all quiet since Friday
A drip drip approach of who is going next and all the uncertainty and rumours that causes brings back the old days when those forgotten figures of Carswell and whats-his-name jumped ship from the Tories to the Kippers.... .unsurprisingly I am a lot more fabourable on these 7 MPs actions!
I see Corbyn's gang are merrily tweeting that the departing MPs should voluntarily stand down and restand in by-elections, presumably on the basis that people thought they were voting for a Labour candidate in 2017.
That's a great idea, Jeremy, but how about all your city MPs do the same, on the basis that people appear to have thought in 2017 they were voting for a party that might actually oppose Brexit?
Prediction: 10% in the immediate polls, with their support being drawn roughly evenly from the Lib Dems and Labour (maybe 1-2% off the Tories at a real push).
3% in an actual election, with no constituencies and no respectable showings outside of a few London seats.
They would help themselves if they and the LibDems said they would work toward an electoral deal - enabling pollsters to combine their ratings
Nah, that knackers their hopes of winning significant numbers of Labour voters even more - it means they'll get contaminated with the Lib Dems' albatross of "they'll just let the Tories in".
I think they're faced with an impossible task under our electoral system. But not so hard to cause a lot of damage to Labour's electoral prospects.
IMO, this sort of analysis completely misunderstands what sort of constituencies this party's support is going to come from -- they'll be getting sod-all votes in Nuneaton, for example (if they even field a candidate there).
Don't agree with that. I think there's a lot of people all over the country who won't vote Tory but can't vote Labour. It won't win them seats in Middle England but it'll give them the credibility they need to contest their target areas.
Well, we'll soon find out, but I don't think "Middle England" is going to be at all attracted to a party which makes EU membership, and generally retaining the status quo, its main objectives.
IMO, this party's main market (to the extent it has one at all) will be wealthy liberals/lefties, but there's very few marginal seats with a significant concentration of them (Kensington is an exception, admittedly) - most live in ultra-safe Labour seats.
Lots of London (and some Manchester) seats might fit the bill. I can see them doing quite well in outer London seats that have been trending leftward as wealthy liberals set up families in the suburbs. Places like Chingford & Woodford Green, Ilford North, Chipping Barnet etc etc.
Exactly the places where the LDs cleaned up last time you mean?
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Which is why the Lib Dems should, and I think will, elect a leader with no ties to the Coalition era.
My reading is that Moran realises Swinson is tarnished and is starting to think herself forward toward the job. Unless today changes everything, of course.
I agree.
Moran is an empty vessel. There is nothing that looks like a political philosophy about her. She has not demonstrated anything that looks like leadership quality - she is a band-wagon jumper and virtue signaller. That doesn't make you a leader.
I know there are very few LDs who can become leader post-Cable. But it baffles me as to why Moran is seen as viable. She hasn't endeared herself to her constituents since winning her seat. Indeed her posturing has been off-putting.
That's honestly not the impression I have from people I know in her seat. She seems well-liked and respected, more so than Nicola Blackwood was. Would that those of us lumbered with Robert Courts as an MP could say the same...
We already know that from their "statement" - Clegg-esque waffle about a "mixed economy", how they essentially want to keep the economy running the way it has for the past 40 years, but put on a sadface when they see homeless people.
To be fair, there is a market for that - there's quite a lot of wealthy liberals who want to (virtue-)signal that they're compassionate and therefore not Tory, but who also don't want to actually give up any more of their income to put their "compassion" into practice (nice guys though I'm sure they are, Southam Observer and Roger are good examples of that). But it's just not a very large market, nor is it concentrated in marginal seats.
But the market for "people who think the current Conservative government couldn't run a whelk stall, but will never vote for a party led by an unreconstructed Trotskyite" is potentially quite big, no?
This is the same sort of argument that's been made at almost every election for the past 40 years about how the conditions were good for a third party to make a breakthrough (most recently for the Lib Dems in 2017).
The only party that's done it in recent times is the SNP, and they only because they actually got a set of policy positions that lots of people agreed with, rather than just benefitting from how crap people thought the established alternatives were. If there isn't a strong enough "pull factor" from the new party, people will just default back to the same old parties like usual; a "push factor" from the two main parties is not and has never been enough on its own for a new party to rise.
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Bizarre. The lever on Cameron only got pulled when the LibDems were no longer tying him down.
All on the centre left were reasonably content with the 2010 election. What we didn't bank on was Cameron getting such a taste for power that he ws prepared to sell the EU down the river to appeal to his UKIP wing. Blair for example would never had done that even if it meant losing power.
Err, you do realise that it was above all Cameron who (with no help at all from Labour) actually made the case for Remain?
This presumably isn't correct. If their plan is to target marginals, then their plan is to ensure that the Tories win the next election.
Their best hope of retaining their seats is surely to stand where they are already known/where Brexit is the most salient issue and Labour are popular.
No. Tories need to win marginals too.
If its Chukka and 4/5 Labour MPs standing on an anti-Brexit platform... they are going to be taking Labour voters predominantly, not Tory votes. So they will make it much more likely that the Tories win those marginals.
If on the other hand, they stood against Kate Hoey in Vauxhall, well frankly they'd get plenty of Labour support and probably win the seat.
I doubt that they would poll many votes beyond those who would otherwise have voted Libdem.
There is a large pool of remain voters with no real political home right now so I wouldn't be too sure that the impact will be minimal. I don't think Corbyn's chances of winning a GE were that great but I think this will just about kill it off. It will reinforce the anti-semitic anti-EU image that Corbyn wants to shed.
Killing off Corbyn might free a lot of Tory remainers to vote elsewhere.
Luciana Berger standing for the new party in Hendon or Bury would probably have a very good chance.
Chipping Barnet might be her best bet; it seems to be swinging more heavily to Labour than the neighbouring areas, and Theresa Villiers is a Brexiteer in a Remain area.
Matthew Offord in Hendon is also now a full on ERG member it seems. Chipping Barnet swung less in 2017 than either Hendon or Finchley & Golders Green largely because it has fewer Jews. Even so, I imagine any of the three current Tory MPs in Barnet would be delighted if Berger stood against them, as it'd most likely split the Labour vote and make their re-election more likely.
I see Corbyn's gang are merrily tweeting that the departing MPs should voluntarily stand down and restand in by-elections, presumably on the basis that people thought they were voting for a Labour candidate in 2017.
That's a great idea, Jeremy, but how about all your city MPs do the same, on the basis that people appear to have thought in 2017 they were voting for a party that might actually oppose Brexit?
*Checks Labour manifesto* Err
Quite!
And an interesting contrast with UKIP under Farage, where the default position was that a defection should result in a by-election. This will feed nicely into claims by Brexit supporters that Remainers are not democratic.
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Which is why the Lib Dems should, and I think will, elect a leader with no ties to the Coalition era.
My reading is that Moran realises Swinson is tarnished and is starting to think herself forward toward the job. Unless today changes everything, of course.
I agree.
Moran is an empty vessel. There is nothing that looks like a political philosophy about her. She has not demonstrated anything that looks like leadership quality - she is a band-wagon jumper and virtue signaller. That doesn't make you a leader.
I know there are very few LDs who can become leader post-Cable. But it baffles me as to why Moran is seen as viable. She hasn't endeared herself to her constituents since winning her seat. Indeed her posturing has been off-putting.
That's honestly not the impression I have from people I know in her seat. She seems well-liked and respected, more so than Nicola Blackwood was. Would that those of us lumbered with Robert Courts as an MP could say the same...
It may be the circles in which we move - but I have not heard a single positive thing said about her since she took the seat.
It may be that living in central Oxford, my perspective is somewhat different to someone who lives in North Oxford or Abingdon.
That's honestly not the impression I have from people I know in her seat. She seems well-liked and respected, more so than Nicola Blackwood was. Would that those of us lumbered with Robert Courts as an MP could say the same...
Layla Moran's YouTube channel is a new low tidemark in the use of social media by a politician. My 15 year old niece puts 100x more effort into hers and that's mainly about cosmetics and her dog. #votedurasneice
No-one thought to throw a hundred bucks at Cloudflare or AWS to make sure it stayed up on day one, when all the media were going to be looking at it. This stuff really isn’t difficult any more. Poor show.
The Independent Group. Can anyone think of part of this sceptred isle where independence has another meaning? Or even a newspaper web site?
Look, I know this might sound like a Corbynista snow job but it just seems so badly done.
The attacks by the 7 on Corbyn are going to be played ad infinitum across the media and to be honest it is stark, especially Luciana's no holds barred confrontation of Corbyn
Let's see how things look in a day or two. There are lots of things people expect to be game-changers that turn out not to be. Do commuters talk about it on the way to work? Go down the pub to watch the Chelsea vs Man Utd game tonight -- do people discuss it at half time?
The last couple of MPs resigning the whip created barely a ripple. Maybe this time it will be different.
Would anybody notice if Lib Dem MPs quit to join them? What they need now is some tories to jump ship.
How many Tory MPs to defect would it take for Con+DUP to lose its majority?
I make it seven.
If they get those seven (plus more Labour MPs) then that would be big - but can they do it in time to affect Brexit?
Would getting the Tories to jump affect Brexit?
The extreme hardliners like Grieve, Soubry and Wollaston have all but resigned the whip on Brexit already.
It would change the dynamic because May would not be able to pretend that simply getting all her party and the DUP on board would be enough to pass a deal. The arithmetic would mean that she had to reach outside those bounds - which would make it easier to force concessions from her - on the customs union, or another referendum.
I see Corbyn's gang are merrily tweeting that the departing MPs should voluntarily stand down and restand in by-elections, presumably on the basis that people thought they were voting for a Labour candidate in 2017.
That's a great idea, Jeremy, but how about all your city MPs do the same, on the basis that people appear to have thought in 2017 they were voting for a party that might actually oppose Brexit?
*Checks Labour manifesto* Err
Quite!
And an interesting contrast with UKIP under Farage, where the default position was that a defection should result in a by-election. This will feed nicely into claims by Brexit supporters that Remainers are not democratic.
It could be argued that sitting as an independent isn't as big a step as joining another party
Just to double check, this lot have all resigned the whip and left the party now ? I mean apologies if this sounds like checking that the sun has risen this morning, but just want to be doubly sure.
The Independent Group. Can anyone think of part of this sceptred isle where independence has another meaning? Or even a newspaper web site?
Look, I know this might sound like a Corbynista snow job but it just seems so badly done.
The attacks by the 7 on Corbyn are going to be played ad infinitum across the media and to be honest it is stark, especially Luciana's no holds barred confrontation of Corbyn
Let's see how things look in a day or two. There are lots of things people expect to be game-changers that turn out not to be. Do commuters talk about it on the way to work? Go down the pub to watch the Chelsea vs Man Utd game tonight -- do people discuss it at half time?
The last couple of MPs resigning the whip created barely a ripple. Maybe this time it will be different.
Front page of BBC website will help.
Of course the Left will claim the BBC are deliberately promoting them in order to stop Jezza etc etc...
No-one thought to throw a hundred bucks at Cloudflare or AWS to make sure it stayed up on day one, when all the media were going to be looking at it. This stuff really isn’t difficult any more. Poor show.
It is behind Cloudflare but a CDN is not a magic talisman against bad design and implementation. Maybe they did not even test it because QA is not Agile!
The country needs a political party who supports Remain and aren't the soiled Lib Dems who created the Frankenstein monster Cameron.
Which is why the Lib Dems should, and I think will, elect a leader with no ties to the Coalition era.
My reading is that Moran realises Swinson is tarnished and is starting to think herself forward toward the job. Unless today changes everything, of course.
I agree.
Moran is an empty vessel. There is nothing that looks like a political philosophy about her. She has not demonstrated anything that looks like leadership quality - she is a band-wagon jumper and virtue signaller. That doesn't make you a leader.
I know there are very few LDs who can become leader post-Cable. But it baffles me as to why Moran is seen as viable. She hasn't endeared herself to her constituents since winning her seat. Indeed her posturing has been off-putting.
That's honestly not the impression I have from people I know in her seat. She seems well-liked and respected, more so than Nicola Blackwood was. Would that those of us lumbered with Robert Courts as an MP could say the same...
It may be the circles in which we move - but I have not heard a single positive thing said about her since she took the seat.
It may be that living in central Oxford, my perspective is somewhat different to someone who lives in North Oxford or Abingdon.
I could believe that, certainly.
On a raw political level she (or her agent, who I think is a Focus-wielding operative of the old school) may have made the right calculation there - central Oxford is Lib Dem / Labour / Green in any case, and is never going to vote for a Conservative candidate in a month of Sundays (your good self excepted, I'm presuming!). The trick appears to have been to get the Greens to stand aside, which brought a lot of the Oxford vote on-side, while campaigning and leafleting hard in areas like Abingdon.
Honestly though, I'd far rather have Nicola Blackwood than Robert Courts out here in the sticks.
The Independent Group. Can anyone think of part of this sceptred isle where independence has another meaning? Or even a newspaper web site?
Look, I know this might sound like a Corbynista snow job but it just seems so badly done.
The attacks by the 7 on Corbyn are going to be played ad infinitum across the media and to be honest it is stark, especially Luciana's no holds barred confrontation of Corbyn
Let's see how things look in a day or two. There are lots of things people expect to be game-changers that turn out not to be. Do commuters talk about it on the way to work? Go down the pub to watch the Chelsea vs Man Utd game tonight -- do people discuss it at half time?
The last couple of MPs resigning the whip created barely a ripple. Maybe this time it will be different.
Front page of BBC website will help.
Of course the Left will claim the BBC are deliberately promoting them in order to stop Jezza etc etc...
No-one thought to throw a hundred bucks at Cloudflare or AWS to make sure it stayed up on day one, when all the media were going to be looking at it. This stuff really isn’t difficult any more. Poor show.
Just to double check, this lot have all resigned the whip and left the party now ? I mean apologies if this sounds like checking that the sun has risen this morning, but just want to be doubly sure.
Comments
It was only a few days ago that we heard Starmer had been told a threat for Labour to back said referendum, which had been agreed to be included in a letter, had been 'accidentally' omitted.
Umunna is an ex-Herbert Smith lawyer. I have spent so much time with people like him that I’m rather allergic to their appeal. Cooper seems to be a bit colourless, though she has been a bit more effective over Brexit in recent weeks. But I have some time for Berger because she has shown some courage and, as I am sure you will guess from some of my other posts, this is rarer than it ought to be and is something I admire.
She may not be a leader. Who knows? But she is showing up a very dark and unpleasant side to Labour, something which rips the heart out of everything they claim to be.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/8-tips-to-improve-your-relationship-courtesy-of-international-relations/
Downthread, someone notes it would be advantageous electorally for her to do so. She has absolutely zero in common with today's gammonite Tory Party so should go for it.
That's a great idea, Jeremy, but how about all your city MPs do the same, on the basis that people appear to have thought in 2017 they were voting for a party that might actually oppose Brexit?
Look, I know this might sound like a Corbynista snow job but it just seems so badly done.
To be fair, there is a market for that - there's quite a lot of wealthy liberals who want to (virtue-)signal that they're compassionate and therefore not Tory, but who also don't want to actually give up any more of their income to put their "compassion" into practice (nice guys though I'm sure they are, Southam Observer and Roger are good examples of that). But it's just not a very large market, nor is it concentrated in marginal seats.
In one sense that broadens their appeal - we alrteady have an all-about-stopping-Brexit party and it's getting nowhere. But it will damage their links to other centrists who really do feel that stopping or at least ameliorating Brexit is the immediate priority.
Equally I suspect this is a holding pattern while Brexit pans out...
Chukka's commandos have Brexit to contend with, as well as the Cobynites. But they do have the advantage of novelty.
Just not Socialist.
Now Remain has lost - it's open season.
Terrific Viewing.
I know there are very few LDs who can become leader post-Cable. But it baffles me as to why Moran is seen as viable. She hasn't endeared herself to her constituents since winning her seat. Indeed her posturing has been off-putting.
But the Corbynites have a point; the people didn't know what they were voting for when they elected the splitters, so the people deserve a second vote...
Like many, I have had my doubts about the European Union as an organisation. I still do. But just because an organisation is frustrating it does not mean that you should necessarily walk out of it, and certainly not without thinking very carefully through the consequences.
Taken from: The Language of Brexit
https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-language-of-brexit-9781350047976/
The extreme hardliners like Grieve, Soubry and Wollaston have all but resigned the whip on Brexit already.
They definitely need some Tories to jump to build the momentum.
The only party that's done it in recent times is the SNP, and they only because they actually got a set of policy positions that lots of people agreed with, rather than just benefitting from how crap people thought the established alternatives were. If there isn't a strong enough "pull factor" from the new party, people will just default back to the same old parties like usual; a "push factor" from the two main parties is not and has never been enough on its own for a new party to rise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXvuLVUOBZo
And an interesting contrast with UKIP under Farage, where the default position was that a defection should result in a by-election. This will feed nicely into claims by Brexit supporters that Remainers are not democratic.
It may be that living in central Oxford, my perspective is somewhat different to someone who lives in North Oxford or Abingdon.
Dan has accurately predicted 78 of the last 1 Labour splits
Is Bury Remoan
The last couple of MPs resigning the whip created barely a ripple. Maybe this time it will be different.
"A very good chance she will lose anywhere she stands."
She's good-looking, I'd vote for her. Join the Shallow Party! What is there to lose?
But Bury South is almosr certainly much Remainier than Bury North. And also very Jewish.
Of course the Left will claim the BBC are deliberately promoting them in order to stop Jezza etc etc...
https://twitter.com/guywalters/status/1097470956166103040
On a raw political level she (or her agent, who I think is a Focus-wielding operative of the old school) may have made the right calculation there - central Oxford is Lib Dem / Labour / Green in any case, and is never going to vote for a Conservative candidate in a month of Sundays (your good self excepted, I'm presuming!). The trick appears to have been to get the Greens to stand aside, which brought a lot of the Oxford vote on-side, while campaigning and leafleting hard in areas like Abingdon.
Honestly though, I'd far rather have Nicola Blackwood than Robert Courts out here in the sticks.
https://twitter.com/skwawkbox/status/1097468623969488896?s=21