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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today could be the day that Corbyn’s Labour Party finally spli

Solidarity ?? pic.twitter.com/lggiXOFRhX
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But I have just heard Stephen Kinnock on the radio saying that he is sticking with Labour. That has to encourage people to leave it.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hs1s7mK-yH8
In other words, like most people (I would imagine,) I'll believe a split if and when I see it. And, unless the defectors are going to set up a new party and try to take Labour down, how would it be anything other than a completely futile gesture anyway?
Of course, if the split does actually occur then it would have one upside for the Labour leadership. There'd be no shortage of vacant Parliamentary candidate slots for them to parachute Shameless Shamima into when she gets back from Syria.
But I think we all knew this was imminent when he was too ill to be even carried to the Withdrawal Agreement Vote.
I cannot see Newport West going blue in a by-election. A general election it wouldn't be out of the question but it would still be unlikely.
Corbynistas deal in convenient fantasies, not facts. Unless you are actively licking the Dear Leader's arse, they will find some reason to accuse you of disloyalty.
What strength.
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1097243529955426309?s=21
And Percy the Pig will be on his second loop the loop.
They want a few things fixed and some sensible steady reforms put in place. Otherwise, leave people alone.
And there will be stuff going wrong, and getting blamed on the current ministers in charge, across every single government department. It doesn't matter what you're responsible for, if you're responsible for something when No Deal Brexit happens, it's going to be chaotic, and the chaos is going to somehow be your fault.
Con, Lab, Libdems, SNP, PC, DUP, SF, Green all fighting with existing elected MPs.
New Labour split Party, new Farage party, UKIP all taking part too.
Could be more difficult to predict the outcome.
Paul was a consummate politician so I’m sure he wouldn’t have minded me asking this so early: Newport West changeable?
I’d have thought the Tories would miss it but there’s a chance of anything on a low-ish turnout and split Labour vote. Then again, Farage could come along and muddy the waters with his new Brexit party too.
Close-ish Labour hold with reduced majority.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/02/17/spanish-warship-orders-gibraltar-boats-leave-british-waters/
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pACePi441ds
It didn't help the numbers on borrowing, water nationalisation and pensions were clearly plucked out of thin air (or smoke-filled air, the smoke being cannabis smoke) but that was the main concern.
Moreover, since I have never denied that the Tory manifesto was uncosted too and have repeatedly criticised them for it, I'm not sure why you're getting at me over that. It doesn't alter the fact that Labour's manifesto was uncosted and every time that bunch of third rate smug posh drunken Nazis (and that's not by any means the worst I could say of one of them, but out of respect for OGH I never have) claimed it was they were lying.
Take the blinkers off, please. You are clearly intelligent and an interesting poster but defending Labour's manifesto is like saying Trump's Wall plan had its merits and was well thought through.
So I imagine there’s now frustrations on both sides.
I guess that’s why I’m a Conservative.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/02/17/two-senior-tory-mps-facing-deselection-votes-annual-meetings/
RIP Paul Flynn.
I'll believe this new party when I see it.
King Cole, if there is a new party, Wollaston might like it.
Edited extra bit: and F1 testing starts today. Williams won't be there for the first day.
There is a non-trivial possibility that this time next year the TPS will be declared insolvent and the government have to find a way to rescue it. While that need not be politically fatal it would undoubtedly be highly embarrassing and cause a great deal of trouble for them.
More here: https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-private-school-pension-pull-out-would-leave-ps800m-hole
(Edit - incidentally it would be about a 5% increase in costs, for this. Corbyn was the one proposing a 20% hike in fees.)
In a government with talent he would have reached PPS level for a few months and then been encouraged to take his undoubted abilities elsewhere.
On the split would you be tempted to give them your support?
- Labour is an anti-semitic party, that refuses to get treatment for this cancer
- Labour is allowing Brexit to happen
- Labour is split
Be interesting to see what impact that has on the polling.
And I think those who want to lead Labour would probably do well to learn from Corbyn's previous leadership campaigns.
Letter published in the Guardian on 1st Dec 2007 on the subject of Venezuela:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/dec/01/venezuela.leadersandreply
People are scared. That’s natural. They need reassurance.
Corbyn really needs to go but I don't see splits being the answer.
That’s why I’ve always favoured a practical Brexit and the WA with a slow transition. Alas, I might not get it, and recent weeks have given me cause to doubt the EU’s sincerity on the backstop.
I think it also works the other way: the EU is proposing and advocating pretty radical change with further federalisation, eurozone chancellors/ministers, tax-raising powers and military integration. And mass immigration is another former of rapid change.
Sometimes these things can be heads you win, tails I lose.
Or they’ll blow it up.
It is a shit blatantly party-political point by Hope Not Hate. Otherwise we would have polling on the % impact of other parties' voters. What % of Labour voters had a lasting negative impact, eh?
They clearly have an agenda, to equate Tory = anti-Islam to mitigate Labour = anti-semitic. "Oh well, all parties have their problems." Bullshit in the general, bullshit in the specifics.
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1097406852390944768
Absolutely brill.
+1
https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1097407604404482048
A majority of voters sought radical change by voting Leave in 2016, but it seems the politicians think that’s too much like hard work and prefer to gerrymander us into the status quo forever.
What will be interesting is whether they form a new SDP style party or become independents
First question for the defectors, will they be following the Carswell precident and allowing the people to reconfirm their positions as Parliamentarians?
edit; and also if they start making a dent in opinion polls.
https://twitter.com/Matt_Alt/status/1097065583873482753