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So they have a choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU agreed to drop the 10% car tariff in their trade deal with Japan meaning they can sell directly into the EU market from Japan and the vehicle is already built in JapanStark_Dawning said:
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in JapanScott_P said:
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Continue manufacturing in Sunderland, as they promised, but which may now be subject to a tariff for export into the EU...or ramp up production in Japan now that the FTA enables this.
I, like you, don’t know how much of a factor Brexit is in the decision. But the logic suggests it probably had some role.0 -
You might be right if it is cheaper to make in Japan and ship directly to Europe. If it is cheaper to make locally then Brexit is the reason. I don't know which it is. I don't think anyone else pasting on here will either.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not at all.Peter_the_Punter said:
"Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU."Big_G_NorthWales said:
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in JapanScott_P said:
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
I suspect that's a line we will be hearing repeatedly over the coming years.
I am reporting the news on the new situation and the zero car tariffs for Japan since yesterday. There are genuine stories of brexit stress but this does not seem to be one
But for sure Brexit hasn't been of any help.0 -
Errrh the Nissan X-Trail is primarily a diesel car. I doubt they will be doing any ramping up of production of it, at least not for the European market.Gardenwalker said:
So they have a choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU agreed to drop the 10% car tariff in their trade deal with Japan meaning they can sell directly into the EU market from Japan and the vehicle is already built in JapanStark_Dawning said:
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in JapanScott_P said:
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Continue manufacturing in Sunderland, as they promised, but which may now be subject to a tariff for export into the EU...or ramp up production in Japan now that the FTA enables this.
I, like you, don’t know how much of a factor Brexit is in the decision. But the logic suggests it probably had some role.0 -
Its been made in Japan for 19 years.Recidivist said:
You might be right if it is cheaper to make in Japan and ship directly to Europe. If it is cheaper to make locally then Brexit is the reason. I don't know which it is. I don't think anyone else pasting on here will either.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Not at all.Peter_the_Punter said:
"Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU."Big_G_NorthWales said:
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in JapanScott_P said:
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
I suspect that's a line we will be hearing repeatedly over the coming years.
I am reporting the news on the new situation and the zero car tariffs for Japan since yesterday. There are genuine stories of brexit stress but this does not seem to be one
But for sure Brexit hasn't been of any help.0 -
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.MarqueeMark said:Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?0 -
Ah no. You read it correctly but missed the preceding caption that the divide in this country is ... between the many and the few. The slogan at the end is unchanged. I think that is what is going on, anyway.Charles said:
I thought it used to be “for the many *not* the few”DecrepitJohnL said:
No they haven't. Am I missing a joke here?Charles said:
I see they’ve changed the slogan to “for the many *and* the few”rottenborough said:
I may have misread it when it flashed up on screen but thought it was quite clever. On its own it’s a less good slogan but cuts off the anti-Semitic parodies (for the many not the Jew) and is close enough no one will notice.0 -
England 118 for 7 - I think an England team that didn't bat deep might do better.0
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Essentially the trade off is benefits from reduced capex / higher operating leverage (single site manufacturing) vs increased transit costs and longer lead timesGardenwalker said:
So they have a choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU agreed to drop the 10% car tariff in their trade deal with Japan meaning they can sell directly into the EU market from Japan and the vehicle is already built in JapanStark_Dawning said:
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in JapanScott_P said:
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Continue manufacturing in Sunderland, as they promised, but which may now be subject to a tariff for export into the EU...or ramp up production in Japan now that the FTA enables this.
I, like you, don’t know how much of a factor Brexit is in the decision. But the logic suggests it probably had some role.
Brexit doesn’t come into it - especially as you wouldn’t make a decision like this based on Brexit when there is going to be more clarity in a few weeks.0 -
England going for the innings defeat.0
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That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.MarqueeMark said:Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?0 -
A bit unlikely, but it could be a big move from Labour to don't know.another_richard said:
That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.MarqueeMark said:Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?0 -
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.0 -
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.another_richard said:
That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.MarqueeMark said:Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%0 -
The entire operation is already in Japan.Stark_Dawning said:
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in JapanScott_P said:
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
This was going to be a new operation in England and it's an operation that is backwards to how the market is developing. Every sane car company is investing in next generation electric and hybrid vehicles this is an investment in diesel.
Diesel doesn't need investment. It's as simple as that. Better to ramp up production of diesel where it already exists instead.0 -
And, as usual with England, failing in their objective. I will admit it was a good try though.AndyJS said:England going for the innings defeat.
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Evening all.
- Brexit did it
...
- No it didn't
I think I have seen this thread about 94 times. I will check back in a few days and see if anything new has turned up.0 -
Are you talking about Labour's crashing in the polls?Beverley_C said:Evening all.
- Brexit did it
...
- No it didn't
I think I have seen this thread about 94 times. I will check back in a few days and see if anything new has turned up.0 -
Dunno. But I do know that given the performance of the government and the clusterf*ck that is Brexit, Labour should be ten points clear minimum, and it isn't.another_richard said:
That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.MarqueeMark said:Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
So something is going wrong within Labour.0 -
I did caveat it as being in the sector I know. But I'd be interested to know where the estimates come from. The warehouses I walk through are packed to the roofs.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
The falling pound doesn't make us more productive in the long run. It's the equivalent of running a sale. I've had some nice orders. But competitiveness is the result of continual work, innovation and investment. This will all be harder when our home market shrinks down to jus the UK. And we'll be competing with companies that have that economies of scale from being in the biggest and richest single market in the world.0 -
On topic, Rudd is the clear lay amongst the top of the betting0
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Well, unless 90% of the members leave the party......Pulpstar said:On topic, Rudd is the clear lay amongst the top of the betting
0 -
I think the polling is probably a blip but the appearance of relative unity to get the Brady amendment through has helped matters. And Labours divisions are starting to show.another_richard said:
That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.MarqueeMark said:Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?0 -
What are the Common External Tariffs on the goods you make?Recidivist said:
I did caveat it as being in the sector I know. But I'd be interested to know where the estimates come from. The warehouses I walk through are packed to the roofs.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
The falling pound doesn't make us more productive in the long run. It's the equivalent of running a sale. I've had some nice orders. But competitiveness is the result of continual work, innovation and investment. This will all be harder when our home market shrinks down to jus the UK. And we'll be competing with companies that have that economies of scale from being in the biggest and richest single market in the world.0 -
That is exactly what the BBC have said on their 8.00pm news.Charles said:
Essentially the trade off is benefits from reduced capex / higher operating leverage (single site manufacturing) vs increased transit costs and longer lead timesGardenwalker said:
So they have a choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU agreed to drop the 10% car tariff in their trade deal with Japan meaning they can sell directly into the EU market from Japan and the vehicle is already built in JapanStark_Dawning said:
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in JapanScott_P said:
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
Continue manufacturing in Sunderland, as they promised, but which may now be subject to a tariff for export into the EU...or ramp up production in Japan now that the FTA enables this.
I, like you, don’t know how much of a factor Brexit is in the decision. But the logic suggests it probably had some role.
Brexit doesn’t come into it - especially as you wouldn’t make a decision like this based on Brexit when there is going to be more clarity in a few weeks.
The Nissan suv is diesel and their sales are plummeting in Europe and like all car manufacturers thry have a massive over supply, so action has to be taken now0 -
England lose by an innings and 13 runs.
This hasn't even been a contest. England have been dreadful.
Surely Root has to resign. He's a poor captain and his desperately needed batting is a shambles,0 -
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?HYUFD said:
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.another_richard said:
That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.MarqueeMark said:Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%0 -
Our global market is more than just the UK. As a result of us having record employment etc there is work happening at the moment to innovate and our investment figures are impressive.Recidivist said:
I did caveat it as being in the sector I know. But I'd be interested to know where the estimates come from. The warehouses I walk through are packed to the roofs.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
The falling pound doesn't make us more productive in the long run. It's the equivalent of running a sale. I've had some nice orders. But competitiveness is the result of continual work, innovation and investment. This will all be harder when our home market shrinks down to jus the UK. And we'll be competing with companies that have that economies of scale from being in the biggest and richest single market in the world.0 -
I thought WI needed 14 runs to win in their second innings?ydoethur said:England lose by an innings and 13 runs.
This hasn't even been a contest. England have been dreadful.
Surely Root has to resign. He's a poor captain and his desperately needed batting is a shambles,0 -
On this poll the move is labour to conservartive - but I need convincingdixiedean said:
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?HYUFD said:
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.another_richard said:
That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.MarqueeMark said:Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
However, labour falling in this poll is not surprising with Corbyn finally seeing off a referendum
Where is Starmer in all this. He did not go to no 10 with Corbyn, (preferring to take Milne and Murphy with him ) and he has not done an inerview in days0 -
Sorry, I misread it. I thought it said 'trail.'ralphmalph said:
I thought WI needed 14 runs to win in their second innings?ydoethur said:England lose by an innings and 13 runs.
This hasn't even been a contest. England have been dreadful.
Surely Root has to resign. He's a poor captain and his desperately needed batting is a shambles,
It's disturbing it seemed all too plausible.
Edit - and I stand by my comment about Root. Worst captain in world cricket.0 -
For sureMaxPB said:
Yes but £60k for fixtures and fittings sounds like bullshit from the seller to attach a higher price to it than it's worth.malcolmg said:
What it was last sold for means nothing, its what people are paying now that matters and it was common years ago to pay for fixtures and fittings to keep below stamp duty levels.MaxPB said:
Sounds like bullshit to me, pay what it's worth, not what the seller thinks it's worth.NickPalmer said:O/T query - a friend was bemused to be told my the owner of a house that he's thinking of buying that although it was last sold at £180K, the "real" price had been £240K, and the difference was "for tax reasons". I assume this is a case of stamp duty tax avoidance (both buyer and seller own more than one house so the first-time buyer exemption doesn't apply), and I've heard it's common, with the balance being supplied either under the counter or "for furniture and fittings" or the like. You'd think the authorities would be keen to crack down on this sort of thing, but it's not obvious how they'd know - is it in fact a common (mal)practice?
I suppose the owner may be just spinning a line to get the price up, though my friend says sturdily that he'll only pay what he thinks it's worth.0 -
Why wouldn't they? I won't be voting Conservative at the next GE because my MP, Laurence Robertson (Tewksbury, Con) is an extreme Leaver, but if he were a Remainer I'd certainly consider it.dixiedean said:
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?HYUFD said:
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.another_richard said:
That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.MarqueeMark said:Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
0 -
Anyone know if Theresa's having a mini-break in Wales this weekend?rottenborough said:
0 -
It's fraud, it will get your conveyancer struck off, and if not you main residence leaves you with a higher CGT bill (if the home appreciates in value).malcolmg said:
For sureMaxPB said:
Yes but £60k for fixtures and fittings sounds like bullshit from the seller to attach a higher price to it than it's worth.malcolmg said:
What it was last sold for means nothing, its what people are paying now that matters and it was common years ago to pay for fixtures and fittings to keep below stamp duty levels.MaxPB said:
Sounds like bullshit to me, pay what it's worth, not what the seller thinks it's worth.NickPalmer said:O/T query - a friend was bemused to be told my the owner of a house that he's thinking of buying that although it was last sold at £180K, the "real" price had been £240K, and the difference was "for tax reasons". I assume this is a case of stamp duty tax avoidance (both buyer and seller own more than one house so the first-time buyer exemption doesn't apply), and I've heard it's common, with the balance being supplied either under the counter or "for furniture and fittings" or the like. You'd think the authorities would be keen to crack down on this sort of thing, but it's not obvious how they'd know - is it in fact a common (mal)practice?
I suppose the owner may be just spinning a line to get the price up, though my friend says sturdily that he'll only pay what he thinks it's worth.
If you declare it in the TR1 it's open for the world so see; if you don't, you're doing the deal under the table (and couldn't sue if they didn't pay up).0 -
it's not that bad, it's only a ten weicket defeat...ydoethur said:England lose by an innings and 13 runs.
This hasn't even been a contest. England have been dreadful.
Surely Root has to resign. He's a poor captain and his desperately needed batting is a shambles,0 -
I don't sell anything that attracts tariffs. I pay about 9% on some of the things I import. But I do research and development and consulting so the scale I work at tariffs are about as important as the window cleaning bill. I do however get around a lot and talk to all sorts of people, visit their factories and above all listen to their problems. This isn't just because I am a warm and sympathetic person. I am interested in finding out their problems and seeing if I have a solution to sell them.ralphmalph said:
What are the Common External Tariffs on the goods you make?Recidivist said:
I did caveat it as being in the sector I know. But I'd be interested to know where the estimates come from. The warehouses I walk through are packed to the roofs.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
The falling pound doesn't make us more productive in the long run. It's the equivalent of running a sale. I've had some nice orders. But competitiveness is the result of continual work, innovation and investment. This will all be harder when our home market shrinks down to jus the UK. And we'll be competing with companies that have that economies of scale from being in the biggest and richest single market in the world.0 -
On the basis of Opinium they have gone to the Tories, most of them are One Nation Tories or New Labour or Liberals ideologically, now that Corbyn has still refused to back EUref2 with a Remain option their main reason for voting for Corbyn Labour has gone given Corbyn Brexit is now little different in reality from May Brexitdixiedean said:
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?HYUFD said:
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.another_richard said:
That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.MarqueeMark said:Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
0 -
So it's by ten wickets with a six.
That's so much better than by an innings and 13 runs.
Failing to take responsibility for being preternaturally awful seems to have spread beyond Foster, Corbyn and May.0 -
Completely logical. I doubt it is right.HYUFD said:
On the basis of Opinium they have gone to the Tories, most of them are One Nation Tories or New Labour or Liberals ideologically, now that Corbyn has still refused to back EUref2 with a Remain option their main reason for voting for Corbyn Labour has gonedixiedean said:
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?HYUFD said:
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.another_richard said:
That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.MarqueeMark said:Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%0 -
Yes has to be a reasonable amount. when i was a boy you always had a separate payment for fixtures and fittings to try and keep you below the next stamp duty level. Had to be reasonable though.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It's fraud, it will get your conveyancer struck off, and if not you main residence leaves you with a higher CGT bill (if the home appreciates in value).malcolmg said:
For sureMaxPB said:
Yes but £60k for fixtures and fittings sounds like bullshit from the seller to attach a higher price to it than it's worth.malcolmg said:
What it was last sold for means nothing, its what people are paying now that matters and it was common years ago to pay for fixtures and fittings to keep below stamp duty levels.MaxPB said:
Sounds like bullshit to me, pay what it's worth, not what the seller thinks it's worth.NickPalmer said:O/T query - a friend was bemused to be told my the owner of a house that he's thinking of buying that although it was last sold at £180K, the "real" price had been £240K, and the difference was "for tax reasons". I assume this is a case of stamp duty tax avoidance (both buyer and seller own more than one house so the first-time buyer exemption doesn't apply), and I've heard it's common, with the balance being supplied either under the counter or "for furniture and fittings" or the like. You'd think the authorities would be keen to crack down on this sort of thing, but it's not obvious how they'd know - is it in fact a common (mal)practice?
I suppose the owner may be just spinning a line to get the price up, though my friend says sturdily that he'll only pay what he thinks it's worth.
If you declare it in the TR1 it's open for the world so see; if you don't, you're doing the deal under the table (and couldn't sue if they didn't pay up).0 -
No - our beautiful snow covered mountains are under a warning from our mountain rescue teams for climbers and walkersGIN1138 said:0 -
My Dad who is in his constituency says that he is not very hard working. But when you weigh the votes.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why wouldn't they? I won't be voting Conservative at the next GE because my MP, Laurence Robertson (Tewksbury, Con) is an extreme Leaver, but if he were a Remainer I'd certainly consider it.dixiedean said:
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?HYUFD said:
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.another_richard said:
That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.MarqueeMark said:Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%0 -
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)0 -
@HYUFD and @Big G.
Apologies, can't work block quotes on this IPad.
It does seem strange. Maybe we need more polls as confirmation. Seems counter intuitive, but hey what do I know?
Corbyn is not impressive, but he hasn't got any worse recently. May remains (mysteriously to me) relatively popular, but again, I don't detect her having improved noticeably.0 -
Hope you and Mrs G are keeping warm Big G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - our beautiful snow covered mountains are under a warning from our mountain rescue teams for climbers and walkersGIN1138 said: 0 -
They also make the X-Trail in St Petersburg so there is already a European supply chain for it.Philip_Thompson said:
The entire operation is already in Japan.Stark_Dawning said:
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in JapanScott_P said:
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
This was going to be a new operation in England and it's an operation that is backwards to how the market is developing. Every sane car company is investing in next generation electric and hybrid vehicles this is an investment in diesel.
Diesel doesn't need investment. It's as simple as that. Better to ramp up production of diesel where it already exists instead.
Edit to add: engines for X-Trail (which is the biggest component) are imported from Japan to Russia. I don't know if Nissan had been planning to move engine production to the UK/EU.0 -
I would say Laurence knows his audience and plays to it.ralphmalph said:
My Dad who is in his constituency says that he is not very hard working. But when you weigh the votes.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why wouldn't they? I won't be voting Conservative at the next GE because my MP, Laurence Robertson (Tewksbury, Con) is an extreme Leaver, but if he were a Remainer I'd certainly consider it.dixiedean said:
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?HYUFD said:
Sack to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.another_richard said:
That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:
This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.MarqueeMark said:Interesting thing about that Opinium poll, with LibDems only up one and UKIP and Greens static, it looks like straight Labour --> Tory switchers. Which, when you look at the state of the Tories, is about as bad as it could be.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%0 -
I think he has got a lot worse recently. Other polls indicate the voters did not like him refusing to meet TM and constantly seeking an election. His performances at the dispatch box have been woeful and of course he has killed off the referendum and slighted Starmer by not taking him to no10dixiedean said:@HYUFD and @Big G.
Apologies, can't work block quotes on this IPad.
It does seem strange. Maybe we need more polls as confirmation. Seems counter intuitive, but hey what do I know?
Corbyn is not impressive, but he hasn't got any worse recently. May remains (mysteriously to me) relatively popular, but again, I don't detect her having improved noticeably.
He has an added problem with Venezeula in the daily headlines
As far as TM is concerned she has the best tech knowledge of brexit bar none and she does come over as knowing her subject unlike, not only Corbyn, but many other mps on all sides
One other possibility is that Grieve and Soubry are making all the running on the remain side while labour are virtually silent.0 -
They could simply be staying home. As the denominator would be smaller, the Tory share would rise without any switchers.dixiedean said:
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?HYUFD said:
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.another_richard said:
That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
Imagine the first poll corresponded to a turnout of 40 million.
16.0 million Labour out of 40 million (40%)
14.8 million Tory (37%)
2.8 million LD (7%)
Now take 3.5 million of Labour and have them stay home.
Labour 12.5 million out of 36.5 million (34%)
14.8 million Tories out of 36.5 million (40.5%)
2.8 milliion LD (7.7%).
Round to closest number - 34/41/8.
0 -
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.rcs1000 said:
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
https://twitter.com/AgatheDemarais/status/1091312710174867456?s=19
0 -
Those numbers sound reasonable. It is worth bearing in mind though that the economy isn't a computer programme. Stockpiling means pulling in resources that don't generally get used heavily. So contractors who are generally working at about 70% might now be at 130% and hiring anyone they think is likely to turn up. Hauliers are all too busy to moan about Brexit preparations even if they haven't had to sign an NDA by our paranoid PM. Temps get hired to do the extra paperwork. HR are onto the headhunters. Basically everyone is happy and has jangling pockets.rcs1000 said:
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
But this situation won't last forever. When Article 50 is revoked everything goes into reverse.0 -
-
We are always warm when we are together Gin, and we look out onto the mountains from our back bedroom windows and to the sea from our frontGIN1138 said:
Hope you and Mrs G are keeping warm Big G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - our beautiful snow covered mountains are under a warning from our mountain rescue teams for climbers and walkersGIN1138 said:
And we are both very grateful for all our blessings0 -
I wouldn't read TOO much into that, because it only looks at one part of the economy. It doesn't cover - for example - supermarkets (whose inventories account for around 1% of GDP alone), and who may - or may not - be stockpiling.JonathanD said:
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.rcs1000 said:
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
https://twitter.com/AgatheDemarais/status/1091312710174867456?s=19
Nevertheless, that is a striking number, that suggests that manufacturing inventories have risen 12-14%.0 -
There's Brexit turmoil, nobody has clue what will happen post March 29th (or even before as decisions have to be taken before then).
Jeremy Corbyn is calling (again) for a General Election to... "help bring austerity to an end".0 -
Very wise thing to do in the circumstances but time for our mps to sign the deal and move onJonathanD said:
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.rcs1000 said:
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
https://twitter.com/AgatheDemarais/status/1091312710174867456?s=190 -
Well one household name company I know would have about double that percentage. And they'd have had more if they could have found the buildings to stuff the bloody stuff into.rcs1000 said:
I wouldn't read TOO much into that, because it only looks at one part of the economy. It doesn't cover - for example - supermarkets (whose inventories account for around 1% of GDP alone), and who may - or may not - be stockpiling.JonathanD said:
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.rcs1000 said:
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know. The big guys have all been stockpiling like crazy. The small and medium sized businesses, including me, have been flat out helping them do so. Particularly if you trade worldwide and the low pound has been making you competitive, you have an order book stuffed fuller than Mark Francois' tuck box.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
https://twitter.com/AgatheDemarais/status/1091312710174867456?s=19
Nevertheless, that is a striking number, that suggests that manufacturing inventories have risen 12-14%.0 -
Question is... "are they stockpiling to protect themselves post Brexit, or are they stockpiling because they predict a massive increase in consumer demand in the lead up to Brexit...?"rcs1000 said:
I wouldn't read TOO much into that, because it only looks at one part of the economy. It doesn't cover - for example - supermarkets (whose inventories account for around 1% of GDP alone), and who may - or may not - be stockpiling.JonathanD said:
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.rcs1000 said:
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
https://twitter.com/AgatheDemarais/status/1091312710174867456?s=19
Nevertheless, that is a striking number, that suggests that manufacturing inventories have risen 12-14%.0 -
Revoked did you say. How and when is that remotely going to happenRecidivist said:
Those numbers sound reasonable. It is worth bearing in mind though that the economy isn't a computer programme. Stockpiling means pulling in resources that don't generally get used heavily. So contractors who are generally working at about 70% might now be at 130% and hiring anyone they think is likely to turn up. Hauliers are all too busy to moan about Brexit preparations even if they haven't had to sign an NDA by our paranoid PM. Temps get hired to do the extra paperwork. HR are onto the headhunters. Basically everyone is happy and has jangling pockets.rcs1000 said:
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
But this situation won't last forever. When Article 50 is revoked everything goes into reverse.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are always warm when we are together Gin, and we look out onto the mountains from our back bedroom windows and to the sea from our frontGIN1138 said:
Hope you and Mrs G are keeping warm Big G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - our beautiful snow covered mountains are under a warning from our mountain rescue teams for climbers and walkersGIN1138 said:
And we are both very grateful for all our blessings
0 -
And polls indicate this is one of the reason for him failing but of course he only has one mind set and it does not include cleveralex. said:There's Brexit turmoil, nobody has clue what will happen post March 29th (or even before as decisions have to be taken before then).
Jeremy Corbyn is calling (again) for a General Election to... "help bring austerity to an end".0 -
No idea. But a way has to be found.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Revoked did you say. How and when is that remotely going to happenRecidivist said:
Those numbers sound reasonable. It is worth bearing in mind though that the economy isn't a computer programme. Stockpiling means pulling in resources that don't generally get used heavily. So contractors who are generally working at about 70% might now be at 130% and hiring anyone they think is likely to turn up. Hauliers are all too busy to moan about Brexit preparations even if they haven't had to sign an NDA by our paranoid PM. Temps get hired to do the extra paperwork. HR are onto the headhunters. Basically everyone is happy and has jangling pockets.rcs1000 said:
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
But this situation won't last forever. When Article 50 is revoked everything goes into reverse.0 -
The way is the dealRecidivist said:
No idea. But a way has to be found.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Revoked did you say. How and when is that remotely going to happenRecidivist said:
Those numbers sound reasonable. It is worth bearing in mind though that the economy isn't a computer programme. Stockpiling means pulling in resources that don't generally get used heavily. So contractors who are generally working at about 70% might now be at 130% and hiring anyone they think is likely to turn up. Hauliers are all too busy to moan about Brexit preparations even if they haven't had to sign an NDA by our paranoid PM. Temps get hired to do the extra paperwork. HR are onto the headhunters. Basically everyone is happy and has jangling pockets.rcs1000 said:
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
But this situation won't last forever. When Article 50 is revoked everything goes into reverse.0 -
Maybe Da Yoof have fallen out of love with Magic Grandpa aka Brexit's Bessy Mate......Andy_Cooke said:
They could simply be staying home. As the denominator would be smaller, the Tory share would rise without any switchers.dixiedean said:
Yes, but that doesn't explain where those Remainers have gone. Not to Conservative surely? LD Green are static. Maybe don't know?HYUFD said:
Some voters were probably only voting for Labour as they were Remainers who wanted EUref2 and a Remain option, as Corbyn has still refused to back that even after May's Deal failed to pass the Commons they feel they may as well go back to the Tories (and a few to the LDs) given there is little real difference between May and Corbyn's Brexit plans.another_richard said:
That's plausible.Peter_the_Punter said:
Perhaps, but it's a subjective assessment. Let me make a similar one. What if the 80% of Labour members and majority of their voters who are against Brexit are so fed up with the Party's stance that they no longer wish to vote for it?another_richard said:
But its the relative change isn't it ?Peter_the_Punter said:
Sure, but it's relative isn't it?another_richard said:
But likewise there should be a lot of Conservative voters discontented with either the Conservative government and/or Conservative politicians.Peter_the_Punter said:
I think it's a lot of Labour core voters discontent with the leadership.ydoethur said:This is why this poll makes no sense. A leakage to the Oranges I could understand. Switching to the Tories under current circumstances I can't.
Unless there is a hell of a lot of churn - but even that is silly.
I think this is another rogue.
How much more unfit for government do the Conservatives look now compared with June 2017 as against how much more unfit for government does Labour look now compared with June 2017.
I'd say it was the Conservatives who have deteriorated the most.
Implausible?
But why would the Conservative poll rating increase at the same time ?
Without those Remainers Labour is back to the core vote for Corbynism of about 34%
Imagine the first poll corresponded to a turnout of 40 million.
16.0 million Labour out of 40 million (40%)
14.8 million Tory (37%)
2.8 million LD (7%)
Now take 3.5 million of Labour and have them stay home.
Labour 12.5 million out of 36.5 million (34%)
14.8 million Tories out of 36.5 million (40.5%)
2.8 milliion LD (7.7%).
Round to closest number - 34/41/8.0 -
They are stockpiling raw materials and components to avoid going out of stock if there is disruption to supplies in the event of a no deal Brexit. I know this because I asked one of my clients why he was doing it and that is what he said.alex. said:
Question is... "are they stockpiling to protect themselves post Brexit, or are they stockpiling because they predict a massive increase in consumer demand in the lead up to Brexit...?"rcs1000 said:
I wouldn't read TOO much into that, because it only looks at one part of the economy. It doesn't cover - for example - supermarkets (whose inventories account for around 1% of GDP alone), and who may - or may not - be stockpiling.JonathanD said:
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.rcs1000 said:
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
https://twitter.com/AgatheDemarais/status/1091312710174867456?s=19
Nevertheless, that is a striking number, that suggests that manufacturing inventories have risen 12-14%.0 -
My assumption is that firms don't want to have their businesses disrupted in the case of No Deal Brexit. So, I would expect destocking in the event of a Deal.alex. said:
Question is... "are they stockpiling to protect themselves post Brexit, or are they stockpiling because they predict a massive increase in consumer demand in the lead up to Brexit...?"rcs1000 said:
I wouldn't read TOO much into that, because it only looks at one part of the economy. It doesn't cover - for example - supermarkets (whose inventories account for around 1% of GDP alone), and who may - or may not - be stockpiling.JonathanD said:
Stockpiling is an area where the UK is beating the world - must be once of those service skills we are going to export after Brexit.rcs1000 said:
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
https://twitter.com/AgatheDemarais/status/1091312710174867456?s=19
Nevertheless, that is a striking number, that suggests that manufacturing inventories have risen 12-14%.0 -
May those blessings continue to shower down upon you both.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are always warm when we are together Gin, and we look out onto the mountains from our back bedroom windows and to the sea from our frontGIN1138 said:
Hope you and Mrs G are keeping warm Big G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - our beautiful snow covered mountains are under a warning from our mountain rescue teams for climbers and walkersGIN1138 said:
And we are both very grateful for all our blessings0 -
As ever you're limited by basing everything on past results. There could easily be up to a hundred or more Tory MPs who would vote for a CU Deal v No Deal when push comes to shove. Even May's existing deal anticipates a form of CU by another name.HYUFD said:
If a CU gets through most Tory MPs will vote against it, a CU will only pass because the 17 Tory MPs who voted to rule out No Deal vote with Labour, the LDs and SNP for a permanent CU with SM elements over No Deal. That was how Spelman's anti No Deal amendment passed by 318 votes to 310MarqueeMark said:
It was bollocks then. No way May gets a CU through the Conservative MPs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That was reported two days agoScott_P said:0 -
I think the deal's moment has passed. It's a shame because it was at least not too far off the nation's centre of gravity. But I think only no deal and revocation are left as options. We only have 8 weeks left remember. There will be boats on the water heading to UK ports already that don't know what paperwork they will need when they arrive.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The way is the dealRecidivist said:
No idea. But a way has to be found.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Revoked did you say. How and when is that remotely going to happenRecidivist said:rcs1000 said:
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
But this situation won't last forever. When Article 50 is revoked everything goes into reverse.0 -
Well if a hundred or more Tory MPs vote for a CU plus SM elements v No Deal that just reinforces the point even more that there is a majority in the Commons for a permanent CU plus SM elements (and as it would basically apply the backstop terms for NI to the whole UK the DUP could live with it better than they can live with May's Deal) but I would still expect a majority of Tory MPs to vote for No Deal over a permanent CU plus SM elements given May's existing deal is still supposed to be based on a temporary rather than permanent CU.felix said:
As ever you're limited by basing everything on past results. There could easily be up to a hundred or more Tory MPs who would vote for a CU Deal v No Deal when push comes to shove. Even May's existing deal anticipates a form of CU by another name.HYUFD said:
If a CU gets through most Tory MPs will vote against it, a CU will only pass because the 17 Tory MPs who voted to rule out No Deal vote with Labour, the LDs and SNP for a permanent CU with SM elements over No Deal. That was how Spelman's anti No Deal amendment passed by 318 votes to 310MarqueeMark said:
It was bollocks then. No way May gets a CU through the Conservative MPs.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That was reported two days agoScott_P said:0 -
Could this be for real this time?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/02/rebel-labour-mps-set-to-quit-party-and-form-centre-group0 -
That is so kind - thank youMarqueeMark said:
May those blessings continue to shower down upon you both.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are always warm when we are together Gin, and we look out onto the mountains from our back bedroom windows and to the sea from our frontGIN1138 said:
Hope you and Mrs G are keeping warm Big G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - our beautiful snow covered mountains are under a warning from our mountain rescue teams for climbers and walkersGIN1138 said:
And we are both very grateful for all our blessings
At our age we just live for the day and enjoy our family and grandchildren
This week, house clearance vans were seen at a dear lady and neighbour's home by us who worked for my late sister and we have known for over 50 years. Crippled with arthritis and early dementia she has had to give up her home for a nursing home. She is widowed and about 77.
In the words of the hymn -
'Change and decay in all around I see
O Thou who changes not
Abide with me'
0 -
N..............................................O................................Benpointer said:Could this be for real this time?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/02/rebel-labour-mps-set-to-quit-party-and-form-centre-group0 -
Can I just make the point that this story is about the new X-Trail, so where they make the current one doesn't really come into it.rcs1000 said:
They also make the X-Trail in St Petersburg so there is already a European supply chain for it.Philip_Thompson said:
The entire operation is already in Japan.Stark_Dawning said:
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in JapanScott_P said:
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
This was going to be a new operation in England and it's an operation that is backwards to how the market is developing. Every sane car company is investing in next generation electric and hybrid vehicles this is an investment in diesel.
Diesel doesn't need investment. It's as simple as that. Better to ramp up production of diesel where it already exists instead.
Edit to add: engines for X-Trail (which is the biggest component) are imported from Japan to Russia. I don't know if Nissan had been planning to move engine production to the UK/EU.0 -
Suspect you're right thereFrancisUrquhart said:
N..............................................O................................Benpointer said:Could this be for real this time?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/02/rebel-labour-mps-set-to-quit-party-and-form-centre-group 0 -
-
Sobering thought about the boats.Recidivist said:
I think the deal's moment has passed. It's a shame because it was at least not too far off the nation's centre of gravity. But I think only no deal and revocation are left as options. We only have 8 weeks left remember. There will be boats on the water heading to UK ports already that don't know what paperwork they will need when they arrive.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The way is the dealRecidivist said:
No idea. But a way has to be found.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Revoked did you say. How and when is that remotely going to happenRecidivist said:rcs1000 said:
Total inventories are about 7% of GDP.Philip_Thompson said:
Estimates are that stockpiling accounts for maybe 0.1% of GDP. Not enough to change the macroeconomic picture in the way it is.Recidivist said:
Very easily in the sector I know.Philip_Thompson said:
Yet on a macroeconomic level we have the highest employment rate EVER and are growing faster than any other European G7 nation. So how do you reconcile that?
But your cash flow is not looking great because the downside of the low pound is making everything you have to get in from abroad more expensive. And you don't know what terms you'll be trading on in 8 weeks time. And even if Article 50 was revoked before tea break on Monday morning, which anyone with any sense would do, you know that those warehouses bulging with goods are going to depress your sales at some point - probably late summer.
How do you explain the figures? That UK entrepreneurs have suddenly hit on lots of productive things to do with workers they hadn't thought of before? That people are so enthusiastic about Brexit that they have started spending money on British goods?
For your final paragraph the answer is yes. British goods are more productive globally than they were before due to Brexit. Ie the overreaction to Brexit with the pound falling has made us more productive in global terms than we were before.
A 5% increase in total inventory levels would therefore mean they increases to 7.35% of GDP. If this happened over two quarters, it would be a meaningful boost to GDP. (I don't know what the increase percentage-wise is, but I would have thought 5-10% above normal levels across the economy as a whole, bearing in mind that some sectors will not be affected, while others might need a big boost, sounds about right.)
But this situation won't last forever. When Article 50 is revoked everything goes into reverse.0 -
Are you sure? The original announcement 2 years ago talked about the next-gen only terms of the Qashqai, not the X-Trail.Benpointer said:
Can I just make the point that this story is about the new X-Trail, so where they make the current one doesn't really come into it.rcs1000 said:
They also make the X-Trail in St Petersburg so there is already a European supply chain for it.Philip_Thompson said:
The entire operation is already in Japan.Stark_Dawning said:
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in JapanScott_P said:
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
This was going to be a new operation in England and it's an operation that is backwards to how the market is developing. Every sane car company is investing in next generation electric and hybrid vehicles this is an investment in diesel.
Diesel doesn't need investment. It's as simple as that. Better to ramp up production of diesel where it already exists instead.
Edit to add: engines for X-Trail (which is the biggest component) are imported from Japan to Russia. I don't know if Nissan had been planning to move engine production to the UK/EU.
"Building the X-Trail SUV is an unexpected addition to the model line-up at Sunderland"
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-37787890
This is certainly crucial...
Nissan was expected to build mainly diesel versions of the X-Trail at Sunderland
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-471027080 -
believe it when you see it, or preferably a few minutes later to confirm you aren't dreamingFrancisUrquhart said:
N..............................................O................................Benpointer said:Could this be for real this time?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/02/rebel-labour-mps-set-to-quit-party-and-form-centre-group0 -
0
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"Change and decay in all around I see" just about sums up political life in Brexit Britain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is so kind - thank youMarqueeMark said:
May those blessings continue to shower down upon you both.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are always warm when we are together Gin, and we look out onto the mountains from our back bedroom windows and to the sea from our frontGIN1138 said:
Hope you and Mrs G are keeping warm Big G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - our beautiful snow covered mountains are under a warning from our mountain rescue teams for climbers and walkersGIN1138 said:
And we are both very grateful for all our blessings
At our age we just live for the day and enjoy our family and grandchildren
This week, house clearance vans were seen at a dear lady and neighbour's home by us who worked for my late sister and we have known for over 50 years. Crippled with arthritis and early dementia she has had to give up her home for a nursing home. She is widowed and about 77.
In the words of the hymn -
'Change and decay in all around I see
O Thou who changes not
Abide with me'0 -
Logically that makes sense to me. There is the old saying of the zeal of the convert. It kind of makes sense to me that people who having given up on their old desires can swing around fully to what would be perceived as the opposite.SeanT said:Anecdote alert: many of my Remainer friends have given up the fight. They know they won't get a 2nd vote, they accept democracy must prevail, they are resigned to what they perceive as an act of self-harm, but there ain't nothing to be done about it.
A couple have become convinced Hard No Dealers. They have defaulted to a patriotic Fuck the EU position, a Blitz spirity we-will-survive-without-foie-gras attitude.
This is entirely anecdotal, as I say, I am not sure it is supported in the polling, where Remain and Leave seem pretty much level pegging. But I report what I am definitely seeing amongst my peer group of well educated middle class, middle age Britons. Remainers are either defeatist, or actively switching sides.
3 years ago I was posting here backing Remain. Now I'm the most ok with no deal if the backstop can't be prevented. While people who have always backed Leaving are grabbing onto the deal as the best way to complete getting out smoothly and are OK with overlooking the issues with the backstop.0 -
Indeed - words penned all that time ago just as relevant for todayBenpointer said:
"Change and decay in all around I see" just about sums up political life in Brexit Britain.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is so kind - thank youMarqueeMark said:
May those blessings continue to shower down upon you both.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We are always warm when we are together Gin, and we look out onto the mountains from our back bedroom windows and to the sea from our frontGIN1138 said:
Hope you and Mrs G are keeping warm Big G?Big_G_NorthWales said:
No - our beautiful snow covered mountains are under a warning from our mountain rescue teams for climbers and walkersGIN1138 said:
And we are both very grateful for all our blessings
At our age we just live for the day and enjoy our family and grandchildren
This week, house clearance vans were seen at a dear lady and neighbour's home by us who worked for my late sister and we have known for over 50 years. Crippled with arthritis and early dementia she has had to give up her home for a nursing home. She is widowed and about 77.
In the words of the hymn -
'Change and decay in all around I see
O Thou who changes not
Abide with me'
0 -
Uncertaintiy about future tariffs into the EU not an issue then?FrancisUrquhart said:
Are you sure? The original announcement 2 years ago talked about the next-gen only terms of the Qashqai, not the X-Trail.Benpointer said:
Can I just make the point that this story is about the new X-Trail, so where they make the current one doesn't really come into it.rcs1000 said:
They also make the X-Trail in St Petersburg so there is already a European supply chain for it.Philip_Thompson said:
The entire operation is already in Japan.Stark_Dawning said:
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in JapanScott_P said:
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
This was going to be a new operation in England and it's an operation that is backwards to how the market is developing. Every sane car company is investing in next generation electric and hybrid vehicles this is an investment in diesel.
Diesel doesn't need investment. It's as simple as that. Better to ramp up production of diesel where it already exists instead.
Edit to add: engines for X-Trail (which is the biggest component) are imported from Japan to Russia. I don't know if Nissan had been planning to move engine production to the UK/EU.
This is certainly crucial...
Nissan was expected to build mainly diesel versions of the X-Trail at Sunderland
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-47102708
Don't the grains of sand get in your eyes with your head buried that way?0 -
Scott_P said:
twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1091803587758436352
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There is certainty on tariffs. The X-Trail made in Japan, can now be imported tariff free, due to a recent FTA between EU and Japan. That wasn't in place two years ago, when they announced X-Trail as an brucey bonus. Nor was the fact, that diesels are now about as popular as MAGA hats in Europe.Benpointer said:
Uncertaintiy about future tariffs into the EU not an issue then?FrancisUrquhart said:
Are you sure? The original announcement 2 years ago talked about the next-gen only terms of the Qashqai, not the X-Trail.Benpointer said:
Can I just make the point that this story is about the new X-Trail, so where they make the current one doesn't really come into it.rcs1000 said:
They also make the X-Trail in St Petersburg so there is already a European supply chain for it.Philip_Thompson said:
The entire operation is already in Japan.Stark_Dawning said:
Why would they have incurred all the costs and inconvenience of moving the entire operation to Japan? No - the threat of No Deal tariffs was the killer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They do not need an EU base now they have their new trade deal with the EU with zero car tariffs. Just build all their cars in JapanScott_P said:
Not really a brexit story, it would have happened even if we remained in the EU
This was going to be a new operation in England and it's an operation that is backwards to how the market is developing. Every sane car company is investing in next generation electric and hybrid vehicles this is an investment in diesel.
Diesel doesn't need investment. It's as simple as that. Better to ramp up production of diesel where it already exists instead.
Edit to add: engines for X-Trail (which is the biggest component) are imported from Japan to Russia. I don't know if Nissan had been planning to move engine production to the UK/EU.
This is certainly crucial...
Nissan was expected to build mainly diesel versions of the X-Trail at Sunderland
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-47102708
Don't the grains of sand get in your eyes with your head buried that way?
I said down thread, the big thing to watch is what are Nissan going to do about the Qashqai. They have previously committed to the nex-gen of this brand being made in Sunderland, and it is currently the top selling SUV across Europe.
If they change plans on that, that would undeniably due to Brexit.0 -
Yes, logic rarely comes into this sort of thing. I can make a reasonably coherent case for my position, but that doesn't explain the incandescent rage and anger I feel about the whole episode. That's coming from somewhere, but I don't know where from. And although I haven't actually switched sides, what I feel now is nothing like what I felt when I voted.Philip_Thompson said:
Logically that makes sense to me. There is the old saying of the zeal of the convert. It kind of makes sense to me that people who having given up on their old desires can swing around fully to what would be perceived as the opposite.SeanT said:Anecdote alert: many of my Remainer friends have given up the fight. They know they won't get a 2nd vote, they accept democracy must prevail, they are resigned to what they perceive as an act of self-harm, but there ain't nothing to be done about it.
A couple have become convinced Hard No Dealers. They have defaulted to a patriotic Fuck the EU position, a Blitz spirity we-will-survive-without-foie-gras attitude.
This is entirely anecdotal, as I say, I am not sure it is supported in the polling, where Remain and Leave seem pretty much level pegging. But I report what I am definitely seeing amongst my peer group of well educated middle class, middle age Britons. Remainers are either defeatist, or actively switching sides.
3 years ago I was posting here backing Remain. Now I'm the most ok with no deal if the backstop can't be prevented. While people who have always backed Leaving are grabbing onto the deal as the best way to complete getting out smoothly and are OK with overlooking the issues with the backstop.0 -
Given the initial Chicken Coup against Corbz was after EU ref, it wouldn’t surprise me that the hill the Blairites are willing to split over is Brexit.TheWhiteRabbit said:
believe it when you see it, or preferably a few minutes later to confirm you aren't dreamingFrancisUrquhart said:
N..............................................O................................Benpointer said:Could this be for real this time?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/02/rebel-labour-mps-set-to-quit-party-and-form-centre-group0 -
I hope Brenda has got a good agent, the broadcasters will be trampling over each other to get her response following a GE announcement.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Apparently based on May extending Article 50 for a month or 2, the Commons voting for her Deal in April and she then calls a general election for June to capitalise on her success (assuming the DUP will back a VONC in the government anyway if the Deal passes).Scott_P said:
Can see a few flaws in this cunning plan, starting with the assumption the Commons will ratify her Deal rather than a permanent CU or the possibility of No Deal
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Casino_Royale said:
If Theresa really is planning a June election* she should cut a deal with Jezza to get Labour to abstain on her WA in return for said GE.
(*As it's in the MoS it's not at all likely to be true is it?)0 -
Worth noting that Labour have also managed to run out of money0
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Surely Uncle Len will just open the cheque book?Scott_P said:Worth noting that Labour have also managed to run out of money
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Agreed.Benpointer said:Casino_Royale said:
If Theresa really is planning a June election* she should cut a deal with Jezza to get Labour to abstain on her WA in return for said GE.
(*As it's in the MoS it's not at all likely to be true is it?)0 -
0
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Everybody say hi Gavin....waves...TheScreamingEagles said:The PM's Chief of Staff reads PB
twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/10917834964089405450 -
You can get 6/4 on a 2019 election from BetfredScott_P said:
[Edit: remove link in case OGH thinks its advertising]0 -
A GE isn’t really in the PM’s gift anymore...TheWhiteRabbit said:
Agreed.Benpointer said:Casino_Royale said:
If Theresa really is planning a June election* she should cut a deal with Jezza to get Labour to abstain on her WA in return for said GE.
(*As it's in the MoS it's not at all likely to be true is it?)0 -
My view is that whenever the Tories next call a GE they will lose it.TheScreamingEagles said:The PM's Chief of Staff reads PB
https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1091783496408940545
I'm afraid I don't see a way out of that.0
This discussion has been closed.