Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why after last night the value Brexit bet is on the UK leaving

1235»

Comments

  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    Fudge on the backstop has been confidently predicted since last January. Still none is forthcoming. If May doesn't get anything in the next couple of weeks will you change your prediction, or insist that it still just needs one last heave?
    😁 I’m not trying to hurt you, I’m just trying to wake you up.

    Benchmark against the Good Friday Agreement itself. Did GFA happen because of a form of words, or was it willingness of all parties to agree on less painful way forward. Ditto you have the current situation, Mays Deal v No Deal the last two options standing.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    his boss is in deep shit, he has upset the farmers

    they are up in arms as he said he is cutting back on red meat.

    great for PR in South Dublin not so great for rural Ireland
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    CD13 said:

    Mr Edmund,

    Why do you need a second referendum just because Parliament didn't like the result of the first. Would that apply to future referendums and to a Scottish devolution vote if it comes?

    I'm a bit reluctant to do this again as it's been done to death here but it's not just that it doesn't *like* the results of the first, it can't agree how to implement it, and there's no way it can implement it in a way that keeps the promises made to the people who voted for it.

    On devolution, it was pre-legislative which is sub-optimal so there would have been a case for having one after the specific legislation was drawn up, but it was weaker than with the EU because:
    1) They already had the Constitutional Convention that agreed what devolution should look like.
    2) Devolution would be fairly easy to reverse if the voters turn out not to like it.

    If we were talking Scottish Independence, I think there would be a strong case for a second referendum once you knew what it would actually look like. If people had voted for independence thinking they'd have an open border, keep the pound and stay in the EU, then it turned out they'd have a hard border, their own (shitty) currency and the EU wouldn't let them in, they should definitely have had a chance to say "Whoa WTF, we don't want to do this any more".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,396
    Coveney's line is irrational.

    'Something that works' and 'something that cannot pass in the House of Commons' is a contradiction in terms. Something that works in theory and not reality isn't something that works.

    And if he holds onto the backstop and the Commons doesn't change its mind, then it guarantees no backstop or any remotely comparable situation, which is apparently what he wants to avoid.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,981
    Charles said:

    We’ve been very clear we’re not going to impose a hard border
    In one of the recent conversations somebody said that refusal to take control of the border would enable the rest of the world to bypass WTO regs and funnel goods into the UK legally.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,545

    his boss is in deep shit, he has upset the farmers

    they are up in arms as he said he is cutting back on red meat.

    great for PR in South Dublin not so great for rural Ireland
    You think Leo Varadkar is such a trend setter he can move markets with one comment?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,626

    PMQs - both leaders... pants.

    Better than being sent naked into the negotiating chamber.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    edited January 2019

    You think Leo Varadkar is such a trend setter he can move markets with one comment?
    not me, Im simply reporting the views of the IFA

    It is important the Taoiseach remembers he is the Taoiseach for the whole country, not just Dublin," said Mr Healy, referring to Mr Varadkar's recent comments about his decision to limit the amount of red meat in his diet.

    "Of course, the Taoiseach can eat what he likes, but as the leader of a country which relies heavily on our agri sector, we expect him to be more supportive of our top-quality products. We won't be driven off the land by keyboard warriors, quacks or lifestyle gurus," Mr Healy added.

    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/we-have-to-hold-our-nerve-taoiseach-tells-farmers-as-they-reveal-fears-over-no-deal-37764135.html

    Upsetting farmers in Ireland is never a good idea
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks,

    I accept you think the referendum should be honoured despite your many arguments against Leave.

    I also think so too. It would be nice if the EU could be revised but that's never going to happen. It should push on full speed or settle for being a trading bloc alone.

    As a citizen of a non-member state I’m sure the EU will give appropriate weight to your advice on its future direction.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,030

    not me, Im simply reporting the views of the IFA

    It is important the Taoiseach remembers he is the Taoiseach for the whole country, not just Dublin," said Mr Healy, referring to Mr Varadkar's recent comments about his decision to limit the amount of red meat in his diet.

    "Of course, the Taoiseach can eat what he likes, but as the leader of a country which relies heavily on our agri sector, we expect him to be more supportive of our top-quality products. We won't be driven off the land by keyboard warriors, quacks or lifestyle gurus," Mr Healy added.

    https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/we-have-to-hold-our-nerve-taoiseach-tells-farmers-as-they-reveal-fears-over-no-deal-37764135.html

    Upsetting farmers in Ireland is never a good idea
    It’s a patriotic duty to eat an unhealthy diet ?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,966

    Better than being sent naked into the negotiating chamber.
    Well that might be one way of resolving Brexit. Naked debates. Short (stop sniggering), less desire to interrupt and a strong desire to get out of there.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    The reporting on last night's vote reminds me a lot of the reporting on Chequers.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    DavidL said:

    Well that might be one way of resolving Brexit. Naked debates. Short (stop sniggering), less desire to interrupt and a strong desire to get out of there.
    Ooh I don’t know, Dominic Raab is a bit buff.
  • Nigelb said:

    It’s a patriotic duty to eat an unhealthy diet ?

    Apparently.
    Perhaps the only time Sammy will be compared to Marie Antoinette.

    https://twitter.com/Trickyjabs/status/1090560811473485824
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    edited January 2019
    Nigelb said:

    It’s a patriotic duty to eat an unhealthy diet ?

    welcome to Ireland

    a similar thing happened George Bush Sr when he said he didnt like broccoli. Farmers delivered 10 tonnes of it to the white house.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,966
    Streeter said:

    Ooh I don’t know, Dominic Raab is a bit buff.
    A bit duff I might have gone with.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    Your post is missing something: anything other than blind disagreement. I explained my logic. I get that you don't like it. Perhaps you might wish to provide something other than an emotional response?

    On a morning when every EU official who has bothered getting up this morning has reiterated that the EU is not reopening the withdrawal agreement, you are going to struggle to find much evidence that there is any willingness for the EU to offer a figleaf to cover Theresa May's blushes.
    Not at all. I am explaining what politics is and how it works. Nothing actually needs to change in terms of wording, just change in terms of willingness to deal. Your use of the word emotion is fascinating because (to come over all Zola) I see all this as tempers, not people. For example, Benchmark against the Good Friday Agreement itself. Did GFA happen because of a form of words, or was it willingness of all parties to agree on less painful way forward. Ditto you have the current situation, Mays Deal v No Deal the last two options standing. How clear was GFA to happen before it actually happened? I recall it seemed all a bit weird and unbelievable. But it wasn’t weird or unbelievable, once you subtract people and emotions and opinions from politics, human beings choose the less painful way forward. Just like in Galaxy Quest where they observe the timer always stops on one.

    Now if there were other options on table, such as peoples vote, i would agree with you, but main point of my argument being wake up to the fact there aren’t, British and Irish Governments, all EU and all Tory and Unionists have to choose from now is between May’s deal and No Deal as the lesser of two evils. So to speak.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,981
    edited January 2019
    Nigelb said:

    It’s a patriotic duty to eat an unhealthy diet ?

    It's the leading article in next issue's Weatherspoons News. Lard and gravy are the new Brie. Apparently all the fashionable Leavers are recommending it. From their chateaux in France...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,017
    Sean_F said:

    It does look as if the past few days' events have taken some outcomes off the table (revoking A50, a second referendum, extending A50 to faff around) so to that extent, I think it does make a resolution more likely.
    If at the end of March we are facing No Deal, can we not Revoke?
  • kfowkeskfowkes Posts: 20
    A no deal is likely to happen as it is the best way to keep the tory party united.

    The Tories are very likely to win an overall majority at the next election.
  • dotsdots Posts: 615
    DavidL said:

    A bit duff I might have gone with.
    Raaaaab comes across as a tad AC/DC.

    And is it just me or has May’s physiology changed in recent months, her face is now all puffy and fleshy and round, making her look more warm and friendly?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,626

    If at the end of March we are facing No Deal, can we not Revoke?
    That would be the only way to abide by last night's Spelman amendment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,545
    kfowkes said:

    A no deal is likely to happen as it is the best way to keep the tory party united.

    The Tories are very likely to win an overall majority at the next election.

    Are you HYUFD's twin?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,981
    dots said:

    Raaaaab comes across as a tad AC/DC.

    And is it just me or has May’s physiology changed in recent months, her face is now all puffy and fleshy and round, making her look more warm and friendly?
    It's just you. Her skin has greyed, her eyebags have grown as has her wattle. She's beginning to look like Rory Bremner's impersonation of Anne Widdecombe.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,353
    While buggering us?

    I see the Irish, while understandably not wanting to budge on the backstop, are adopting the entirely fake argument of not going back on one’s word, as though the UK had already agreed the Deal. A demonstration that even if we’re the most unreasonable, which I think is fair, we’re not the only ones being unreasonable.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    dots said:

    Not at all. I am explaining what politics is and how it works. Nothing actually needs to change in terms of wording, just change in terms of willingness to deal. Your use of the word emotion is fascinating because (to come over all Zola) I see all this as tempers, not people. For example, Benchmark against the Good Friday Agreement itself. Did GFA happen because of a form of words, or was it willingness of all parties to agree on less painful way forward. Ditto you have the current situation, Mays Deal v No Deal the last two options standing. How clear was GFA to happen before it actually happened? I recall it seemed all a bit weird and unbelievable. But it wasn’t weird or unbelievable, once you subtract people and emotions and opinions from politics, human beings choose the less painful way forward. Just like in Galaxy Quest where they observe the timer always stops on one.

    Now if there were other options on table, such as peoples vote, i would agree with you, but main point of my argument being wake up to the fact there aren’t, British and Irish Governments, all EU and all Tory and Unionists have to choose from now is between May’s deal and No Deal as the lesser of two evils. So to speak.
    What are you talking about? Upthread you were saying that the EU would blink and accept a new deal without a backstop. Now you're saying no other deal is even on the table?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Nigelb said:

    It’s a patriotic duty to eat an unhealthy diet ?

    John Gummer certainly thought so.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,607
    kle4 said:


    While buggering us?

    I see the Irish, while understandably not wanting to budge on the backstop, are adopting the entirely fake argument of not going back on one’s word, as though the UK had already agreed the Deal. A demonstration that even if we’re the most unreasonable, which I think is fair, we’re not the only ones being unreasonable.
    We are behaving like the perfidious Albion some foreigners have always claimed we are. This will have real live consequences for Britain. We are making it very hard for other countries to take us seriously.

    And last night’s delusional Parliamentary shenanigans have not helped.

    This is not a game. Even if people did not like the decision to leave the EU, we could have earned some credit in the manner of our leaving. We are doing the complete opposite. It does us no credit at all. The fact that the reaction of some is to abuse those foreign politicians who point this out is not an example of some bulldog spirit but of someone who has been on the spirits, meths probably, to judge by the incoherent and delusional ramblings of the British politicians interviewed today.

  • Charles said:

    You have said there will be no hard border post no deal. That’s inconsistent with your point just above

    No, it’s not.

  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,569
    Sigh. I reckon there should be a market up soon of how long the UK will tolerate no deal. I reckon 3 weeks max. Hungry, stuck, sick and very angry.

    What do the EU do then? They will have us completely over a barrel. I really hope someone in Brussels has a piece of paper that we'd just have to sign for a temporary membership extension (even though we've fallen out.)
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,888
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1090605595659509760

    The Tory unity half-life is still the same as ever.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006
    Endillion said:

    John Gummer certainly thought so.
    He's 79 and looks in reasonably good health.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163
    tpfkar said:

    Sigh. I reckon there should be a market up soon of how long the UK will tolerate no deal. I reckon 3 weeks max. Hungry, stuck, sick and very angry.

    What do the EU do then? They will have us completely over a barrel. I really hope someone in Brussels has a piece of paper that we'd just have to sign for a temporary membership extension (even though we've fallen out.)

    They say: "that Withdrawal Agreement: you can still sign it.".
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163

    The backstop is necessary to the WA because without one there could be regulatory divergence between the Republic and NI which runs contrary to the GFA.
    Do you have a reference for that assertion, because I've read the text of the Belfast Agreement a few times and I've not seen any commitment to avoid regulatory divergence?

    It would be helpful if people didn't keep adding imaginary clauses to the GFA.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Cooper amendment cannot be resubmitted
    It could probably be resubmitted in a slightly different form - such as changing the time period from 9 months to 3 months.
This discussion has been closed.