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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why after last night the value Brexit bet is on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th
Overnight I have been amongst a number of punters betting on the Betfair Brexit market that the UK WILL leave the EU on March 29th.
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https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/1090344380999843842
A better argument is from the other end: The opposition Remainers finally got Jeremy Corbyn on board with a strategy, and the opposition is as united as it's ever going to be, but they still don't have the numbers to pull off an alternative. So maybe some of the opposition MPs will ultimately suck it up and vote for the deal. There's definitely a good rational argument that they should do that, but at this point I see zero evidence that any of them are considering it.
That remark is unfair to muppets.
But most of those MPs don't even want No Deal! They're voting to put party ahead of country. The likes of Rudd, Hammond etc. believe no deal would be very damaging and yet won't vote their conscience.
Cuckoo, deluded, but consistent.
I think the government knows a delay is inevitable but politically cannot yet afford to say so. It hopes either that a delay will be forced upon it or, more likely, to get away with it at the last minute when it will seem less of a betrayal, particularly as the destination will by then probably have been resolved.
Good value in betting terms.
Those that voted in favour were a small number, and I think probably did so for genuine reasons.
The remainer Tory MPs think No Deal is a disaster. Yet they still voted for it to help the Tory party, help their careers, because they couldn't bear voting with Labour or some other reason I don't understand.
Perhaps interesting though that a few people (including Irish Foreign Sec) have been citing the need for approval of the European Parliament as a reason why they couldn't shift even if they wanted to. Effectively claiming that they have no more flexibility than the UK Govt because of the "veto" powers of their "own" M(E)Ps...
Leaving with a deal does seem more likely if a long way from nailed on but a technical delay of 3 months or so to sort out the mechanics looks the most likely of all. That would make this bet a loser.
There's going to be a 'discussion' with someone tin-eared, which is going to be a complete waste of my time, and is solely for her to be able to claim that we're unhelpful. It was their bloody idea in the first place!
Though, like @SO, I think we are headed to No Deal on 29th March. Just because something is stupid, it doesn't mean that it will not happen. The ERG are driving in this game of chicken, May is just a passenger now.
Ireland starts to panic
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/brexit-to-cost-us-55000-jobs-as-may-reneges-on-backstop-37764164.html
Whoever it was (Mr. Meeks?) who posted about uneven or bad deals not sticking may well be right. If May's deal gets nodded through at the last minute, it won't resolve much. In true May style, it'll kick the can.
Although the EU are probably going to say no pretty soon... more emphatically than they already have.
Most of the Conservative party hopes we leave with WA in place but leaving us unquestionably the priority.
"This Regulation is binding in its entirety and directly applicable in the Member States in accordance with the Treaty establishing the European Community."
So far we are concerned under the EU Withdrawal Act this will remain a part of our law notwithstanding this provision but what about the law of all other Member States? If I am trying to enforce a Scottish decree in their country can I use the simplified provisions of the regulation and have the safeguard that it provides which is that "Under no circumstances may the foreign judgment be reviewed as to its substance" or do my clients have to relitigate the matter again in the MS (in which case they will not litigate in Scotland in the first place and possibly not litigate at all if the costs and difficulties are too great)?
What is required in hundreds of provisions the definition of MS will have to be varied to read "and the UK". This has been done on some agreements with Switzerland for example but it requires doing. The BoE document issued last month had a series of traffic lights highlighting the areas where this had not been done by the EU or its MSs in respect of financial services. I am not aware of progress on this but it indicated that UK based insurance products may not be enforceable in the EU in the local courts (we had again made the converse provision).
There are fall backs and work arounds. In the example given there is the Brussels Convention to which we remain a party which is similar. But there is really quite a lot to do and the faffing about over the last few months has not helped.
They are faced with an implacable foe. Hard No Deal Brexit. It is eating up time, making its inevitable advance, over-running their defensive trenches. Yet every time they rage at its loathsomeness, there is only one winner - May's Deal. It is sucking the life out of the rage of these Dreamer Remainers.
May's Deal just sits there. It is the only defensive line that can now possibly hold. And in their hearts, they know it delivers - it delivers on the Referendum. It delivers on the Manifesto commitment made to those who elected them. It delivers on preventing the horror of Hard No Deal Brexit. And it does so in the most inoffensive, bland, sort-of-affiliate-membership of ways.
And it crushes their dream.
But here's the hard reality. Wake up from the dream. You've been incredibly selfish. Time to get this over with. There's a lot of disquiet in the land. People are worried. About their health. About their food. Jobs are being threatened. Jobs are being lost. Prosperity is peeling away. And for what? To spread fear in the land - a fear intended to promote your selfish, selfish dream.
This could all end. It could end tomorrow. Today. It should end. It needs to end. Just acknowledge that you have woken from your dream. Just say you'll now vote for May's Deal.
And as you do, realise you're not the only ones who had a dream. Others of us had dreams too. We dreamt that Brexit would be better executed than this. On both sides. That the EU would be pragmatic, would seek sensible compromise. Would not be prepared to close down trade and bring recession upon its remaining members, all in the name of clinging to a backstop it constantly repeats it does not want, will not need.
Yes, we had dreams too. But it hasn't worked out the way of our dreams either.
big debate in France on use of plastic bullets ( LBD 40 system ) which have caused lots of injuries and where the riot police seem a bit trigger happy
http://www.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/2019/01/30/01016-20190130ARTFIG00006-interdire-le-lbd-40-les-arguments-des-pro-et-des-anti.php
There are not enough Labour rebels to get May's deal over the line, unless I am missing something.
Feeling quite cheerful about laying Gabbard:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/29/tulsi-gabbard-2020-election-1134055
And the Democratic field continues to thin:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/427559-garcetti-wont-run-for-president
And Harris continues to appear the front runner:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/29/cnn-town-hall-kamala-harris-1135735
https://www.lastampa.it/2019/01/30/italia/sea-watch-lo-sbarco-pi-vicino-cinque-paesi-ue-aprono-allitalia-dQGQHOMKcODBgXLLFSRNxH/pagina.html
imho Jezza will not back a May deal. He wants Brexit and he wants a No Deal version that can be labelled 'Tory Chaos'.
Some of his MPs will rebel. But enough?
The ERG are still going to hate the deal, May will go and in June there will be a new leader. The pressure to renegotiate will build.
"Chaotic Brexit will cost the Conservative government dear."
https://news.sky.com/story/a-chaotic-brexit-will-cost-the-conservatives-dearly-11621964
Now May somehow has contrived to do so. Not that it matters because the EU thinks it's the UK's fault for being silly enough to consult with their voters by calling an unnecessary referendum. They will have no answer other than 'non'.
Yes, it's all a game, a blame-game. The EU doesn't do democracy anyway. Its a dream, a political dream which has to be kept on track despite the voters. Don't wake up the voters, let them slumber on into unification.
The BBC2 documentary showed nothing new, because we knew it anyway. I have no ill-will towards the EU, it's an honourable dream, but I never liked the means.
https://twitter.com/repbrendanboyle/status/1090351323550236675?s=21
Ill put you down as a Lega probable
And the people who would vote against May's Deal - they would be the selfish Remainer Dreamers and the selfish ERG. Neither should be politically a problem for him. Drives a wedge throught the ranks of Tory MPs, who might well split into two parties. It drives a wedge between himself and the holdout Remainers like Chuka that can only strengthen his hand, as they are flung even further to the margins of his own party.
That still leaves Brexit with a Deal the likely outcome, either May's Deal as is (assuming no EU concession on the backstop) or Corbyn's proposed permanent Customs Union Deal
"Irish food group Greencore is prepared to airlift key ingredients such as rocket and spinach to the UK in the event of a hard Brexit, according to chief executive Patrick Coveney."
What Corbyn really wants is permanent Customs Union and he may yet get it if the 17 Tory MPs who gave ruling out No Deal a majority last night join Labour to vote for a permanent Customs Union as a last resort to avoid No Deal
The comments largely reflect the view of the cult.
And we know what May will do after she is lent votes. She will claim a victory, we will get spin and bullshit like her Brexit was popular. There will be no accommodation of other views, she will walk all over them once she has what she wants.
I don’t see how anyone can lend May their support right now.
It is those 17 Tory MPs who now hold the balance of power in the Commons on Brexit, no longer the 10 MPs from the DUP (though they still will determine if May's Government will survive).
Permanent Customs Union for GB but still backstop of Customs Union plus single market elements for NI followed by a general election thus looks possible