Whilst there is no indication that the EU has any desire to move, and is too politically entrenched to do so even if they wanted, one has to wonder if anyone there is reflecting on the fact that their official position appears to be that they are content for a hard border to happen in Ireland in 4 weeks time, but are implacably opposed to any agreement that potentially result in a hard border in 2.5 years. Maybe they have secret legal advice that the Article 50 process can't actually be concluded without a withdrawal agreement...
No deal is not sustainable for the UK and wouldn't be sustained long enough for the practical question of a hard Irish border to arise. No deal would just mean a new set of negotiations with the same objectives.
I’m surprised.
Your usual contention is that No Desl inevitably leads to adoption of the Euro and dissolution of the U.K. into Euroslush
On balance happy with yesterday. It will either be the deal tweaked or CU. The hysteria on here and in the press is overdone. I get the anger but Parliament expressed its will quite eloquently. The ERG have not won but they get a last hurrah. I'm bored with all the party v country thing - it's a fake meme for ' l don't like your side'. All a bit pathetic.
Has anyone seen the film Vice? I'm not a great cinemagoer and it doesn't exactly look date night material, but is it a rare example of a film about politics that's worth seeing?
It was fun but more of a parody than reality in places.
If you go see there’s a mid credits scene.
If only that's where Cheney's story had ended! (But then, there wouldn't have been a film!)
Has anyone seen the film Vice? I'm not a great cinemagoer and it doesn't exactly look date night material, but is it a rare example of a film about politics that's worth seeing?
Not yet but I intend to, probably this weekend. The trailer makes it look superb. Mark Kermode was a bit meh on it but then I am not sure politics is his thing.
Germany's far from immune. Merkel sought to abolish nuclear power after the Fukushima event (Germany being renowned for its earthquakes and tsunamis), then decided to throw open the borders for the whole world. That worked brilliantly.
Not to mention the EU was asking the UK to say what it wanted, then insists there's no room to change anything.
As I’ve been saying for a while, the idea that the US will do the UK any favours at all if we are perceived to have caused Ireland any kibd of harm is for the fairies. The Irish American lobby is immensely powerful - especially on the Democrat side. Presidential nomination candidates will also have to have a take on this.
What I find utterly depressing is the concept that Ireland could under any circumstances regress into violence and troubles.
There are two democratic civilised free countries / nations / regions, with health care, education and all mod cons.
Nationalistic violence is a weapon that has no place in a civilised first world environment. That we are even discussing it, border or no border, shows the Irish on both sides are in hock to a really poor, negative, insulting, selfish, violent, criminal and frankly stupid cohort of people.
Has anyone seen the film Vice? I'm not a great cinemagoer and it doesn't exactly look date night material, but is it a rare example of a film about politics that's worth seeing?
It was fun but more of a parody than reality in places.
If you go see there’s a mid credits scene.
If only that's where Cheney's story had ended! (But then, there wouldn't have been a film!)
Indeed but I was thinking about the scene in the middle of the final credits.
Has anyone seen the film Vice? I'm not a great cinemagoer and it doesn't exactly look date night material, but is it a rare example of a film about politics that's worth seeing?
Havent seen it myself but the reviews are mixed; it sounds like the acting is good but the pacing and storyline of the film less so. Those critics enjoying seeing Cheney's reputation trashed liked the film, others not. Personally I'd go see it.
Whilst there is no indication that the EU has any desire to move, and is too politically entrenched to do so even if they wanted, one has to wonder if anyone there is reflecting on the fact that their official position appears to be that they are content for a hard border to happen in Ireland in 4 weeks time, but are implacably opposed to any agreement that potentially result in a hard border in 2.5 years. Maybe they have secret legal advice that the Article 50 process can't actually be concluded without a withdrawal agreement...
No deal is not sustainable for the UK and wouldn't be sustained long enough for the practical question of a hard Irish border to arise. No deal would just mean a new set of negotiations with the same objectives.
Absolutely. No Deal will be over much quicker than a US shutdown as the effects will be far more damaging and direct. There will then be a deal, wholly on the EU’s terms.
Indeed. And it will very likely be considerably worse for Britain than what is on offer now, which is itself worse than what was on offer with Cameron’s deal.
The longer British politicians play fantasy politics, the worse any deals we get will become and the greater the harm to the country.
Apparently the great Parliamentary “triumph” last night was to get members of the same political party to vote on the same side for a meaningless amendment. I mean, really, WTF!
We are heading for No Deal. We are trashing our reputation and relationships with our immediate neighbours. We are diminishing ourselves in the eye of the world, those parts of it which are bothering to give us any attention. And we are making the prospects for our country worse.
And all this because of a weak PM more concerned to keep her party together, an opportunistic Opposition Leaver unwilling to follow party policy and MPs too cowardly to act in the interests of the country.
It does look like that. Not good at all. What does good look like? It’s not clear.
May goes to Brussels and fails. Announces that the WA cannot be amended and we need to find another solution. States she has agreement to extend A50 for one year, based on negotiation of a Norway solution Puts vote to commons for mandate to negotiate that, wins it with opposition support but ERG flounce to form some other group Cross party government forms. Negotiations start led by Rudd Deal done, passes by August.
I am full of optimism that a deal can be found between us and the EU. Here is the route.
Mrs May rides a fine Unicorn into Brussels, one that demands a legal change to the WA and the backstop, despite knowing this is outside the scope that the EU is willing to operate in.
Mr Barnier (or Mr Junker, if he is sober and able to stay in the saddle) rides into Brussels on a fine Unicorn saying there is no more negotiation of the WA, despite knowing this is outside the scope that the UK is willing to operate in.
Our Unicorns are equal.
Barnier (or Junker) and May dismount and have lunch.
The freed Unicorns find romance, love and produce a whole family of Unicorns that are so beguiling that the dumb stubborn humans realise that working together is the best solution.
We all get a free Unicorn and live happily ever after.
Excellent. Can we then move on to more important matters?
On the other side, I think the Labour leadership is torn between a) engineering a No Deal by not supporting any Tory deal (even with a CU) so it wrecks the Tories for a generation and gives a Corbyn government a majority (outside the EU) to do what it wants to do, and b) cooperating around a CU to get a softer deal over the line (with EU support) to avoid the damage a No Deal would do to the poor and under-privileged. That would give the Tories a victory so I suspect Corbyn will go for a) i.e. party advantage and viva la revolution.
Corbyn whipped for the Cooper amendment. If we end up Brexiting on Labour terms like a customs union then I don't think that's much of a win for the Tories.
If Corbyn votes in favour of a No Deal Brexit he will be gone. He will have united the PLP, the unions and the membership against him.
I agree that If we end up Brexiting on Labour terms like a customs union then it not that much of a win for the Tories. But voters will give a sigh of relief and give greater credit to the government than to Labour. It won't be seen as a win for Labour.
Corbyn won't vote in favour of a "No Deal" Brexit in any circumstances. He will let the ERG/DUP and a few Labour dissenters do the dirty work.
I hope you are right and that Corbyn chooses country over party.
How is he letting the ERG/DUP do anything? He has no power over them, and limited power over the Labour MPs who rebelled.
The people that can and need to be won over are Tory remainer MPs who have privately said they can't countenance no deal, but are not yet doing anything about it. Corbyn is very poorly placed to appeal to them, had he been leading the amendment instead of Yvette, it would have been harder to get Tory votes.
Also - blocking No Deal is choosing party and country for Labour.
Pitiful interview with Barclay on R4 right now. If May has a plan, she certainly hasn't told him what it is.
There's a chance she did tell him but he was too dim to understand it.
What's smaller than a pygmy?
A Bercow?
Pico- (symbol p) is a unit prefix in the metric system denoting one trillionth, a factor of 10−12 (0.000000000001). Derived from the Spanish pico, meaning peak, beak, bit, this was one of the original 12 prefixes defined in 1960 when the International System of Units was established.
So what would May have to offer the EU to get the necessary movement on the arrêt arrière? Obviously, beyond buying ruinously expensive and malfunctioning cars, I know SFA about negotiation but surely you have to give something to get something? What can or could she give? Something on Gibraltar?
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
Germany's far from immune. Merkel sought to abolish nuclear power after the Fukushima event (Germany being renowned for its earthquakes and tsunamis), then decided to throw open the borders for the whole world. That worked brilliantly.
Not to mention the EU was asking the UK to say what it wanted, then insists there's no room to change anything.
So its not only our political class that is beyond incompetent. That's a relief.
Germany's far from immune. Merkel sought to abolish nuclear power after the Fukushima event (Germany being renowned for its earthquakes and tsunamis), then decided to throw open the borders for the whole world. That worked brilliantly.
Not to mention the EU was asking the UK to say what it wanted, then insists there's no room to change anything.
So its not only our political class that is beyond incompetent. That's a relief.
a quick trip round any part of the western world will show nearly all countries are going through a bad patch.
On the other side, I think the Labour leadership is torn between a) engineering a No Deal by not supporting any Tory deal (even with a CU) so it wrecks the Tories for a generation and gives a Corbyn government a majority (outside the EU) to do what it wants to do, and b) cooperating around a CU to get a softer deal over the line (with EU support) to avoid the damage a No Deal would do to the poor and under-privileged. That would give the Tories a victory so I suspect Corbyn will go for a) i.e. party advantage and viva la revolution.
Corbyn whipped for the Cooper amendment. If we end up Brexiting on Labour terms like a customs union then I don't think that's much of a win for the Tories.
If Corbyn votes in favour of a No Deal Brexit he will be gone. He will have united the PLP, the unions and the membership against him.
I agree that If we end up Brexiting on Labour terms like a customs union then it not that much of a win for the Tories. But voters will give a sigh of relief and give greater credit to the government than to Labour. It won't be seen as a win for Labour.
Corbyn won't vote in favour of a "No Deal" Brexit in any circumstances. He will let the ERG/DUP and a few Labour dissenters do the dirty work.
I hope you are right and that Corbyn chooses country over party.
How is he letting the ERG/DUP do anything? He has no power over them, and limited power over the Labour MPs who rebelled.
The people that can and need to be won over are Tory remainer MPs who have privately said they can't countenance no deal, but are not yet doing anything about it. Corbyn is very poorly placed to appeal to them, had he been leading the amendment instead of Yvette, it would have been harder to get Tory votes.
Also - blocking No Deal is choosing party and country for Labour.
He is letting the ERG/DUP do the damage. He has no control over them but he is not going to support them even if he wants No Deal.
Corbyn might not agree with you that blocking No Deal is choosing party and country for Labour. He may see "No Deal" as a great advantage to the Labour Party prospects of gaining power, even if No Deal damages the country. That's the point.
Has anyone seen the film Vice? I'm not a great cinemagoer and it doesn't exactly look date night material, but is it a rare example of a film about politics that's worth seeing?
Havent seen it myself but the reviews are mixed; it sounds like the acting is good but the pacing and storyline of the film less so. Those critics enjoying seeing Cheney's reputation trashed liked the film, others not. Personally I'd go see it.
If you liked The Big Short, you'll mostly like Vice. Although it covers ground done by Michael Moore in 2004 in Fahrenheit 9/11, so always seems a bit "why now?"
But there are some cracking performances, notably Cheney, Bush and Rumsfeld.
Pitiful interview with Barclay on R4 right now. If May has a plan, she certainly hasn't told him what it is.
There's a chance she did tell him but he was too dim to understand it.
What's smaller than a pygmy?
A Bercow?
Pico- (symbol p) is a unit prefix in the metric system denoting one trillionth, a factor of 10−12 (0.000000000001). Derived from the Spanish pico, meaning peak, beak, bit, this was one of the original 12 prefixes defined in 1960 when the International System of Units was established.
There are 1000 Bercow- to the Pico-.
Surely the Ber is the prefix.
Then there can be Berpigs, Berdogs, Bersheep as well as the familiar Bercows.
So what would May have to offer the EU to get the necessary movement on the arrêt arrière? Obviously, beyond buying ruinously expensive and malfunctioning cars, I know SFA about negotiation but surely you have to give something to get something? What can or could she give? Something on Gibraltar?
The obvious thing is extended membership of the CU so the EU can continue the happy state of affairs (from their point of view) by which they have a trade surplus with the UK of around £60bn a year with minimal risk of being undercut. Maybe ongoing membership with a 5 year notice period?
Saw some tweets this morning which demonstrated the lack of understanding amongst those not politically engaged. The tweets suggested we should not have triggered Article 50 until the withdrawal agreement had been negotiated, or that there should have been informal negotiations before Article 50 was triggered, or that we should have left via some other means such as a treaty. Those posting these tweets clearly don't understand that the EU simply would not negotiate anything, formally or otherwise, until we triggered Article 50, nor would they agree to us leaving via any other route. Why would they when Article 50 is loaded in the EU's favour?
Whilst there is no indication that the EU has any desire to move, and is too politically entrenched to do so even if they wanted, one has to wonder if anyone there is reflecting on the fact that their official position appears to be that they are content for a hard border to happen in Ireland in 4 weeks time, but are implacably opposed to any agreement that potentially result in a hard border in 2.5 years. Maybe they have secret legal advice that the Article 50 process can't actually be concluded without a withdrawal agreement...
No deal is not sustainable for the UK and wouldn't be sustained long enough for the practical question of a hard Irish border to arise. No deal would just mean a new set of negotiations with the same objectives.
I’m surprised.
Your usual contention is that No Desl inevitably leads to adoption of the Euro and dissolution of the U.K. into Euroslush
That was left as an exercise for the reader. A sovereign England as an EU member state would be the antithesis of "Britslush".
Pitiful interview with Barclay on R4 right now. If May has a plan, she certainly hasn't told him what it is.
There's a chance she did tell him but he was too dim to understand it.
What's smaller than a pygmy?
A Bercow?
Pico- (symbol p) is a unit prefix in the metric system denoting one trillionth, a factor of 10−12 (0.000000000001). Derived from the Spanish pico, meaning peak, beak, bit, this was one of the original 12 prefixes defined in 1960 when the International System of Units was established.
There are 1000 Bercow- to the Pico-.
Surely the Ber is the prefix.
Then there can be Berpigs, Berdogs, Bersheep as well as the familiar Bercows.
Fair enough.
So despite its tiny size, you can still have plenty of beef with a Bercow....
On balance happy with yesterday. It will either be the deal tweaked or CU. The hysteria on here and in the press is overdone. I get the anger but Parliament expressed its will quite eloquently. The ERG have not won but they get a last hurrah. I'm bored with all the party v country thing - it's a fake meme for ' l don't like your side'. All a bit pathetic.
You might be bored with all the party v country thing but these are the dilemmas facing party leaders and drivers of their actions. You need to pay attention if you are doing political betting.
Saw some tweets this morning which demonstrated the lack of understanding amongst those not politically engaged. The tweets suggested we should not have triggered Article 50 until the withdrawal agreement had been negotiated, or that there should have been informal negotiations before Article 50 was triggered, or that we should have left via some other means such as a treaty. Those posting these tweets clearly don't understand that the EU simply would not negotiate anything, formally or otherwise, until we triggered Article 50, nor would they agree to us leaving via any other route. Why would they when Article 50 is loaded in the EU's favour?
Nevertheless having some sort of a plan (both as to desired outcome and process) and attempting to build some sort of consensus would both have been sensible steps prior.
Germany's far from immune. Merkel sought to abolish nuclear power after the Fukushima event (Germany being renowned for its earthquakes and tsunamis), then decided to throw open the borders for the whole world. That worked brilliantly.
Not to mention the EU was asking the UK to say what it wanted, then insists there's no room to change anything.
So its not only our political class that is beyond incompetent. That's a relief.
a quick trip round any part of the western world will show nearly all countries are going through a bad patch.
Ireland is a notable exception. The benefits of young, dynamic leadership.
Germany's far from immune. Merkel sought to abolish nuclear power after the Fukushima event (Germany being renowned for its earthquakes and tsunamis), then decided to throw open the borders for the whole world. That worked brilliantly.
Not to mention the EU was asking the UK to say what it wanted, then insists there's no room to change anything.
So its not only our political class that is beyond incompetent. That's a relief.
a quick trip round any part of the western world will show nearly all countries are going through a bad patch.
Ireland is a notable exception. The benefits of young, dynamic leadership.
So what would May have to offer the EU to get the necessary movement on the arrêt arrière? Obviously, beyond buying ruinously expensive and malfunctioning cars, I know SFA about negotiation but surely you have to give something to get something? What can or could she give? Something on Gibraltar?
Another 70 billion? Membership of the Single Market and FoM?
But in any case it’s pointless because the ERG malcontents will move onto something else they object to and she still won’t get Labour votes.
No - it’s No Deal. Or No Brexit and the destruction of the Tory party. Though, frankly, I’d be fine with the latter. They are an absolute shower - and even that is being far too kind to them.
Pitiful interview with Barclay on R4 right now. If May has a plan, she certainly hasn't told him what it is.
There's a chance she did tell him but he was too dim to understand it.
What's smaller than a pygmy?
A Bercow?
Pico- (symbol p) is a unit prefix in the metric system denoting one trillionth, a factor of 10−12 (0.000000000001). Derived from the Spanish pico, meaning peak, beak, bit, this was one of the original 12 prefixes defined in 1960 when the International System of Units was established.
There are 1000 Bercow- to the Pico-.
Surely the Ber is the prefix.
Then there can be Berpigs, Berdogs, Bersheep as well as the familiar Bercows.
Saw some tweets this morning which demonstrated the lack of understanding amongst those not politically engaged. The tweets suggested we should not have triggered Article 50 until the withdrawal agreement had been negotiated, or that there should have been informal negotiations before Article 50 was triggered, or that we should have left via some other means such as a treaty. Those posting these tweets clearly don't understand that the EU simply would not negotiate anything, formally or otherwise, until we triggered Article 50, nor would they agree to us leaving via any other route. Why would they when Article 50 is loaded in the EU's favour?
That was their line - I'm not really sure it would have held if the British had said, "this process doesn't work for us, we're not pulling the lever until we fix it, here's how".
But even if it would have, what the British certainly could have done was to work out what they wanted themselves, rather than pulling the trigger then spending the first 18 months negotiating with themselves.
Pitiful interview with Barclay on R4 right now. If May has a plan, she certainly hasn't told him what it is.
There's a chance she did tell him but he was too dim to understand it.
What's smaller than a pygmy?
A Bercow?
Pico- (symbol p) is a unit prefix in the metric system denoting one trillionth, a factor of 10−12 (0.000000000001). Derived from the Spanish pico, meaning peak, beak, bit, this was one of the original 12 prefixes defined in 1960 when the International System of Units was established.
There are 1000 Bercow- to the Pico-.
Surely the Ber is the prefix.
Then there can be Berpigs, Berdogs, Bersheep as well as the familiar Bercows.
I'm afraid none of this comes close to Cameron's spontaneous response to "I'm not happy". I miss having a PM with wit.
What the Commons rejected last night was EUref2 with a Remain option by voting down the Cooper amendment which would have enabled Article 50 to be extended to enable it and the Grieve amendment to allow it to be put before the House. However by voting for the Spelman amendment the Commons also voted down No Deal.
That still leaves Brexit with a Deal the likely outcome, either May's Deal as is (assuming no EU concession on the backstop) or Corbyn's proposed permanent Customs Union Deal
Your lack of self doubt as you pivot from one position to another with absolute certainty is a thing of beauty
Pitiful interview with Barclay on R4 right now. If May has a plan, she certainly hasn't told him what it is.
There's a chance she did tell him but he was too dim to understand it.
What's smaller than a pygmy?
A Bercow?
Pico- (symbol p) is a unit prefix in the metric system denoting one trillionth, a factor of 10−12 (0.000000000001). Derived from the Spanish pico, meaning peak, beak, bit, this was one of the original 12 prefixes defined in 1960 when the International System of Units was established.
There are 1000 Bercow- to the Pico-.
Surely the Ber is the prefix.
Then there can be Berpigs, Berdogs, Bersheep as well as the familiar Bercows.
I'm afraid none of this comes close to Cameron's spontaneous response to "I'm not happy". I miss having a PM with wit.
So what would May have to offer the EU to get the necessary movement on the arrêt arrière? Obviously, beyond buying ruinously expensive and malfunctioning cars, I know SFA about negotiation but surely you have to give something to get something? What can or could she give? Something on Gibraltar?
Another 70 billion? Membership of the Single Market and FoM?
But in any case it’s pointless because the ERG malcontents will move onto something else they object to and she still won’t get Labour votes.
No - it’s No Deal. Or No Brexit and the destruction of the Tory party. Though, frankly, I’d be fine with the latter. They are an absolute shower - and even that is being far too kind to them.
I don't disagree with the sentiments but for me deal is now the clear favourite after falling back into the pack for a time.
Pitiful interview with Barclay on R4 right now. If May has a plan, she certainly hasn't told him what it is.
There's a chance she did tell him but he was too dim to understand it.
What's smaller than a pygmy?
That's very heightist.
In egalitarian Glasgow the wee man is just as likely to do violent damage to you as the big man.
Was in Glasgow last night at a gigg, and one of the security said to a youngster who was there "hey wee man, did you have a good time tonight?" Glaswegian is pretty awesome...
On balance happy with yesterday. It will either be the deal tweaked or CU. The hysteria on here and in the press is overdone. I get the anger but Parliament expressed its will quite eloquently. The ERG have not won but they get a last hurrah. I'm bored with all the party v country thing - it's a fake meme for ' l don't like your side'. All a bit pathetic.
You might be bored with all the party v country thing but these are the dilemmas facing party leaders and drivers of their actions. You need to pay attention if you are doing political betting.
I don't bet. I do pay attention. I'm bored because it's fake. I suspect most politicians believe their beliefs are in the national interest.
Pitiful interview with Barclay on R4 right now. If May has a plan, she certainly hasn't told him what it is.
There's a chance she did tell him but he was too dim to understand it.
What's smaller than a pygmy?
A Bercow?
Pico- (symbol p) is a unit prefix in the metric system denoting one trillionth, a factor of 10−12 (0.000000000001). Derived from the Spanish pico, meaning peak, beak, bit, this was one of the original 12 prefixes defined in 1960 when the International System of Units was established.
There are 1000 Bercow- to the Pico-.
Surely the Ber is the prefix.
Then there can be Berpigs, Berdogs, Bersheep as well as the familiar Bercows.
I'm afraid none of this comes close to Cameron's spontaneous response to "I'm not happy". I miss having a PM with wit.
fair point, neither May nor Jezza can do humour
The view of many on here was that Cameron couldn't do PM but there are always trade offs and wit rates pretty highly with me.
Has Rep Boyle ever campaigned against a treaty negotiated by the President?
Congress routinely rejects trade deals negotiated by US administrations. The Irish American lobby is immensely powerful - especially the year before presidential elections!
Has Rep Boyle ever campaigned against a treaty negotiated by the President?
Congress routinely rejects trade deals negotiated by US administrations. The Irish American lobby is immensely powerful - especially the year before presidential elections!
St Patrick's Day is a couple of weeks before the No Deal cliff edge so lots of opportunities for high-profile Irish diplomacy in the US too.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
John Bercow is getting quite famous in Denmark - Headline in Berlingske from last night - »Or DAR, Orrrrrrrrrrrr-DAAAAAAAAAAAR,« - he's the hero of Brexit in Denmark for trying to keep the whole thing entertaining.
We go through this time and time again. May has a poundshop version of Steve Jobs reality distortion field. She comes up with a plan in no10, she talks it up, builds hype, people warn her that it won’t work, she ignores the warnings, caries on, gets defeated in an embarrassing way, creates a crisis, inflates the crisis so that people back her clinging to nanny, survives and then goes away and comes up with another plan. Rinse and repeat.
Actually that sounds like quite a bit of several of Steve Jobs actions. His obsession with Apple Lisa, despite the fact everyone told him it was too expensive and wouldnt sell. He was then demoted to tech company equivelent of gardening leave to "set up his own projects". He was a genius and changed the world multiple times, but he was also convinced he was right and refused to listen to people around him.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
What's curious is why?
Assuming we leave with no deal there will be chaos. Why do the headbangers think they will be rewarded by a grateful public for that?
Apparently Nadine was overheard commenting that Tory MPs voting against hard Brexit didn't care about their jobs...
If Brexit is bad, they are all just as stuffed as the rest of us
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
Never underestimate the Tories instinct for self-preservation. They will spin 180 and argue that black=white all along if it saves the party.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
Fudged legally enforceable protections against an indefinite backstop puts her home and clear.
I have no idea where this goes but currency markets rising quite strongly indicating a deal is more likely
There seems to be a lack of discussion on a second referendum which must now be most unlikely. Dominic Grieve on Sky said that in a choice between TM deal and no deal he would vote for the deal
It was a good day for TM seeing all the amendments fall, apart from the non binding no deal vote, and then see Brady's amendment pass. The EU mantra has been tell us what you want and now TM is doing just that, and they do not have an answer other than a stone walling 'no'
There must now be a real risk for the EU and their supporters that public opinion will move against them if they do not respond with some compromise. You are not getting £39 billion if you do not agree is a very powerful argument
Lots of moving parts and understandable despair from those who all along wanted to stop brexit and who now need to be planning a re-join campaign, as brexit is almost certain now in one way or another
1. EU always blink. EU have form as long as 54 arms joined together in a great armipede on giving way, blinking, fudging, backing down to allow deals to happen and the least aggressive outcome to occur. It’s what it does. It’s it’s DNA.
We're constantly reminded by Brexiteers of the EU's intransigence over Greece, it's often given as a prime reason why we should leave. So they don't always blink.
Once we are out with no deal there is no backstop. We either have an implemented hard border or not.
There may be direct discussions about finding ways to create a soft border again but it won’t be the current proposal - that makes no sense post an exit
Saw some tweets this morning which demonstrated the lack of understanding amongst those not politically engaged. The tweets suggested we should not have triggered Article 50 until the withdrawal agreement had been negotiated, or that there should have been informal negotiations before Article 50 was triggered, or that we should have left via some other means such as a treaty. Those posting these tweets clearly don't understand that the EU simply would not negotiate anything, formally or otherwise, until we triggered Article 50, nor would they agree to us leaving via any other route. Why would they when Article 50 is loaded in the EU's favour?
Nevertheless having some sort of a plan (both as to desired outcome and process) and attempting to build some sort of consensus would both have been sensible steps prior.
I'm not sure a consensus was ever possible and there did seem to be some sort of a plan but I'm sure it could have been handled better. But the idea that we could/should have sorted out the withdrawal agreement with the EU before pulling the trigger is out of touch with reality.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
Never underestimate the Tories instinct for self-preservation. They will spin 180 and argue that black=white all along if it saves the party.
As Cyclefree made clear yesterday, fundamentalism has crept into the party. For every David Herdson and Richard Nabavi there is now an Mark Francois and Andrew Bridgen. And it is the latter group that is getting bigger.
Saw some tweets this morning which demonstrated the lack of understanding amongst those not politically engaged. The tweets suggested we should not have triggered Article 50 until the withdrawal agreement had been negotiated, or that there should have been informal negotiations before Article 50 was triggered, or that we should have left via some other means such as a treaty. Those posting these tweets clearly don't understand that the EU simply would not negotiate anything, formally or otherwise, until we triggered Article 50, nor would they agree to us leaving via any other route. Why would they when Article 50 is loaded in the EU's favour?
That was their line - I'm not really sure it would have held if the British had said, "this process doesn't work for us, we're not pulling the lever until we fix it, here's how".
But even if it would have, what the British certainly could have done was to work out what they wanted themselves, rather than pulling the trigger then spending the first 18 months negotiating with themselves.
I think it would have held. In what way is "we're not pulling the lever until the process has changed" a threat to the EU? All they have to do to make sure we don't leave is refuse to change the process.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
What's curious is why?
Assuming we leave with no deal there will be chaos. Why do the headbangers think they will be rewarded by a grateful public for that?
Apparently Nadine was overheard commenting that Tory MPs voting against hard Brexit didn't care about their jobs...
If Brexit is bad, they are all just as stuffed as the rest of us
They are zealots and fundamentalists. Just as the far left consistently insists that socialism and communism have never been tried, the loons of the ERG will claim forever that it would have been different if Brexit had been done their way.
Once we are out with no deal there is no backstop. We either have an implemented hard border or not.
There may be direct discussions about finding ways to create a soft border again but it won’t be the current proposal - that makes no sense post an exit
Post exit, making Northern Ireland part of EU customs territory makes even more sense, and the political dynamics in Great Britain will remove any remaining leverage the DUP have to prevent it.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
I don’t give a stuff about the Tories. I do care about my country and the prospects for my children. And the fucking retards in Parliament are doing their level best to harm those and they will never be forgiven for that. By me anyway.
Once we are out with no deal there is no backstop. We either have an implemented hard border or not.
There may be direct discussions about finding ways to create a soft border again but it won’t be the current proposal - that makes no sense post an exit
When we move to No Deal the Irish border will remain just as it is now. That will help the Irish, but it won't help us.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
Never underestimate the Tories instinct for self-preservation. They will spin 180 and argue that black=white all along if it saves the party.
As Cyclefree made clear yesterday, fundamentalism has crept into the party. For every David Herdson and Richard Nabavi there is now an Mark Francois and Andrew Bridgen. And it is the latter group that is getting bigger.
SO when you joined labour you were outnumbered 3-1 by Momentum.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
I don’t give a stuff about the Tories. I do care about my country and the prospects for my children. And the fucking retards in Parliament are doing their level best to harm those and they will never be forgiven for that. By me anyway.
Yep, that is all true and very fair. And from a political perspective it demonstrates exactly how far up shit creek the Tories are.
And JC Bamford is paying this twit £3000 per hour for his advice. Note to self: check whether Bamford is a listed company and tell financial advisor to make sure none of my my money is invested in his shares.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
Never underestimate the Tories instinct for self-preservation. They will spin 180 and argue that black=white all along if it saves the party.
As Cyclefree made clear yesterday, fundamentalism has crept into the party. For every David Herdson and Richard Nabavi there is now an Mark Francois and Andrew Bridgen. And it is the latter group that is getting bigger.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
Never underestimate the Tories instinct for self-preservation. They will spin 180 and argue that black=white all along if it saves the party.
As Cyclefree made clear yesterday, fundamentalism has crept into the party. For every David Herdson and Richard Nabavi there is now an Mark Francois and Andrew Bridgen. And it is the latter group that is getting bigger.
SO when you joined labour you were outnumbered 3-1 by Momentum.
Mr. Glenn, nothing says reasserting one's right to self-determination like endorsing the annexation of territory by a foreign power one has just voted to leave...
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
Never underestimate the Tories instinct for self-preservation. They will spin 180 and argue that black=white all along if it saves the party.
As Cyclefree made clear yesterday, fundamentalism has crept into the party. For every David Herdson and Richard Nabavi there is now an Mark Francois and Andrew Bridgen. And it is the latter group that is getting bigger.
SO when you joined labour you were outnumbered 3-1 by Momentum.
That makes the Tories look moderate
The UKIPers are taking over the Tories.
well, they cant be very good at it theyve had long enough, Jezzas lot captured Labour in 2 years
They are zealots and fundamentalists. Just as the far left consistently insists that socialism and communism have never been tried, the loons of the ERG will claim forever that it would have been different if Brexit had been done their way.
Bus it IS their way, that's the point.
They want no deal.
If we end up with no deal, their preferred option, I don't think the adoring public are going to thank them.
The late and half hearted way Labour front bench supported Coopers amendment was akin to walking it outside taking a cigarette lighter to it, and then denying its their fault it burned.
The way the Labour front bench have managed this whole winter crisis has been vague, reactive and providing no leadership at all. Almost like the “we tried we honestly did” shrug hides alternate agenda. There’s going to be massive massive repercussions for Labour following Brexit. The vast amount of remainers, vast amount of which are Labour members and supporters, genuinely believed hard brexit could be stopped, that there was a genuine chance of a People’s vote. And they are going to turn on someone or something now that’s gone up in smoke. Starmer certainly has to go. He failed. You failed to prevent hard brexit you claim is bad, It’s a disaster of a failure for you, you go.
In fact brexit is great news for nationalist and minor parties and the libdems. Labour at war and likely split over its post brexit EU policy, whilst for the Tories, Mays deal with fudged backstop is still chequers. Unless May’s chequers plan her MPs turned into brexit starts delivering the results leave voters demanded, overtime Farage, and people to the right of him are going to have a field day at the expense of the Conservative Party. Can those leave voters demands be met? No of course they can’t unless you can turn off globalisation, immigration, deindustrialisation and bridge the disconnect between political elite and the people. There is zilch in brexit that helps with any of that, there’s plenty in brexit that throws up new risks and challenges that may make Britain poorer, a squeeze on public spending tighter, our rates of debt interest higher, and this slide in reputation started by brexit even harder to manage.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
Never underestimate the Tories instinct for self-preservation. They will spin 180 and argue that black=white all along if it saves the party.
As Cyclefree made clear yesterday, fundamentalism has crept into the party. For every David Herdson and Richard Nabavi there is now an Mark Francois and Andrew Bridgen. And it is the latter group that is getting bigger.
SO when you joined labour you were outnumbered 3-1 by Momentum.
That makes the Tories look moderate
The UKIPers are taking over the Tories.
Stop the broken fucking record and say something interesting and or surprising.
There’s going to be massive massive repercussions for Labour following Brexit. The vast amount of remainers, vast amount of which are Labour members and supporters, genuinely believed hard brexit could be stopped, that there was a genuine chance of a People’s vote.
Mr. Glenn, nothing says reasserting one's right to self-determination like endorsing the annexation of territory by a foreign power one has just voted to leave...
If you're a Brexiteer, then Northern Ireland is clearly an obstacle to self-determination for Great Britain.
Whilst there is no indication that the EU has any desire to move, and is too politically entrenched to do so even if they wanted, one has to wonder if anyone there is reflecting on the fact that their official position appears to be that they are content for a hard border to happen in Ireland in 4 weeks time, but are implacably opposed to any agreement that potentially result in a hard border in 2.5 years. Maybe they have secret legal advice that the Article 50 process can't actually be concluded without a withdrawal agreement...
No deal is not sustainable for the UK and wouldn't be sustained long enough for the practical question of a hard Irish border to arise. No deal would just mean a new set of negotiations with the same objectives.
Absolutely. No Deal will be over much quicker than a US shutdown as the effects will be far more damaging and direct. There will then be a deal, wholly on the EU’s terms.
Indeed. And it will very likely be considerably worse for Britain than what is on offer now, which is itself worse than what was on offer with Cameron’s deal.
The longer British politicians play fantasy politics, the worse any deals we get will become and the greater the harm to the country.
Apparently the great Parliamentary “triumph” last night was to get members of the same political party to vote on the same side for a meaningless amendment. I mean, really, WTF!
We are heading for No Deal. We are trashing our reputation and relationships with our immediate neighbours. We are diminishing ourselves in the eye of the world, those parts of it which are bothering to give us any attention. And we are making the prospects for our country worse.
And all this because of a weak PM more concerned to keep her party together, an opportunistic Opposition Leaver unwilling to follow party policy and MPs too cowardly to act in the interests of the country.
Look at the bright side. It will finally sweep away out post Imperial delusions of grandeur and we can finally assume our place in the world as a mid-level country with a good tourist trade.
May goes to Brussels and fails. Announces that the WA cannot be amended and we need to find another solution. States she has agreement to extend A50 for one year, based on negotiation of a Norway solution Puts vote to commons for mandate to negotiate that, wins it with opposition support but ERG flounce to form some other group Cross party government forms. Negotiations start led by Rudd Deal done, passes by August.
If the DUP pulls out or the ERG form a splinter faction, May's government will lose a VONC and we'll be on election footing immediately.
Mr. Glenn, nothing says reasserting one's right to self-determination like endorsing the annexation of territory by a foreign power one has just voted to leave...
If you're a Brexiteer, then Northern Ireland is clearly an obstacle to self-determination for Great Britain.
So what would May have to offer the EU to get the necessary movement on the arrêt arrière? Obviously, beyond buying ruinously expensive and malfunctioning cars, I know SFA about negotiation but surely you have to give something to get something? What can or could she give? Something on Gibraltar?
Another 70 billion? Membership of the Single Market and FoM?
But in any case it’s pointless because the ERG malcontents will move onto something else they object to and she still won’t get Labour votes.
No - it’s No Deal. Or No Brexit and the destruction of the Tory party. Though, frankly, I’d be fine with the latter. They are an absolute shower - and even that is being far too kind to them.
I don't disagree with the sentiments but for me deal is now the clear favourite after falling back into the pack for a time.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
I don’t give a stuff about the Tories. I do care about my country and the prospects for my children. And the fucking retards in Parliament are doing their level best to harm those and they will never be forgiven for that. By me anyway.
Yep, that is all true and very fair. And from a political perspective it demonstrates exactly how far up shit creek the Tories are.
And the irony is that I am exactly the sort of voter the Tories ought to be aiming for. Socially liberal, want a well run economy but feel strongly that we must help those worse off than ourselves, no time for barking mad ideologies. I loathe Corbyn quite as much as I loathe the ERG. If the Tories lose people like me, who the hell are they going to get votes from?
It is a measure of how up shit creek they are that I now view Corbyn and his leftist loons and the ERG as mirror images of each other.
Whilst there is no indication that the EU has any desire to move, and is too politically entrenched to do so even if they wanted, one has to wonder if anyone there is reflecting on the fact that their official position appears to be that they are content for a hard border to happen in Ireland in 4 weeks time, but are implacably opposed to any agreement that potentially result in a hard border in 2.5 years. Maybe they have secret legal advice that the Article 50 process can't actually be concluded without a withdrawal agreement...
No deal is not sustainable for the UK and wouldn't be sustained long enough for the practical question of a hard Irish border to arise. No deal would just mean a new set of negotiations with the same objectives.
Absolutely. No Deal will be over much quicker than a US shutdown as the effects will be far more damaging and direct. There will then be a deal, wholly on the EU’s terms.
Indeed. And it will very likely be considerably worse for Britain than what is on offer now, which is itself worse than what was on offer with Cameron’s deal.
The longer British politicians play fantasy politics, the worse any deals we get will become and the greater the harm to the country.
Apparently the great Parliamentary “triumph” last night was to get members of the same political party to vote on the same side for a meaningless amendment. I mean, really, WTF!
We are heading for No Deal. We are trashing our reputation and relationships with our immediate neighbours. We are diminishing ourselves in the eye of the world, those parts of it which are bothering to give us any attention. And we are making the prospects for our country worse.
And all this because of a weak PM more concerned to keep her party together, an opportunistic Opposition Leaver unwilling to follow party policy and MPs too cowardly to act in the interests of the country.
Look at the bright side. It will finally sweep away out post Imperial delusions of grandeur and we can finally assume our place in the world as a mid-level country with a good tourist trade.
Ive been there for years and maybe we can concentrate of GDP per head instead of GDP
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
Never underestimate the Tories instinct for self-preservation. They will spin 180 and argue that black=white all along if it saves the party.
You joke, but if a united Ireland is the only way for the ERG to keep their Hard Brexit sex dreams alive, then its probably only a matter of time until they suggest it.
On topic, I agree with Mike, although not quite for the same reasons.
The original deal, while widely disliked, is still (1) a deal, and (2) better than some of the alternatives to a sufficiently large number of MPs as to potentially form an acceptable least-worst option, when confronted with No Deal or Remain.
However, if that deal is ultimately endorsed, then it's extremely likely the UK would ask for, and get, a short extension to do the legislative paperwork.
On the other hand, No Deal is now much more likely than 27%, and if it does happen, it's likely to happen on March 29.
The PM's strategy, if this be not too weighty a description for it, seems clear. Keep the deal alive at all costs. By the deal I mean the DEAL, the WA inc the backstop, not this new unicorn without the backstop which although a unicorn will have the lifespan of a wasp.
Keeping the deal alive is the most she can do at this point, and it is all that she needs to do. The ticking down of the clock, together with parliament's inability to coalesce around an alternative either to her or her plan, will do the rest. The deal will be passed because at the end of the day there will not be the stomach for leaving without it. Or so she hopes.
Is she right? I think so. I think she is right in both senses of the word. Right, in that things will pan out as above and she will eventually get her deal through. And also right in intent. She knows the deal is the best and only way to leave the EU in an adult fashion, therefore she is absolutely justified in fighting tooth & nail for it. She is behaving with honour and I am rooting for her.
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
Never underestimate the Tories instinct for self-preservation. They will spin 180 and argue that black=white all along if it saves the party.
As Cyclefree made clear yesterday, fundamentalism has crept into the party. For every David Herdson and Richard Nabavi there is now an Mark Francois and Andrew Bridgen. And it is the latter group that is getting bigger.
SO when you joined labour you were outnumbered 3-1 by Momentum.
That makes the Tories look moderate
The UKIPers are taking over the Tories.
Stop the broken fucking record and say something interesting and or surprising.
Just ignore me if you do not like what I am saying.
It's upsetting me now. Leave and No Deal are acquiring and spending money from somewhere again. I see them on Facebook when things are forwarded. I got a Wetherspoons magazine through my letterbox yesterday. Why? I ranted at my wife thinking her work curmudgeon had passed it onto her. I rant like Malcolm Tucker. Turns out it was posted. I tore it up. The chimp considered burning it, peeing on it, spilling seed on it, photographing my resultant opinion of it. I didn't.
I looked to post the torn copy back through the letterbox of one of their pubs. It didn't have a letterbox. The chimp imagined it should be flaming, not seriously, but it crossed my mindi It went into the bin at work with a further small dose of Tuckering aimed at it,, for the benefit of the passing dry Tory. I'm sat, resting with a coffee.
It could not have maddened me more had Putin quite literally poured poison through my letterbox to harm me and my family.
And we are supposed to reason calmly, protest peacefully and play nice. Fine, fine, but that's going to need some big deep breaths along the way, because I'm feeling a little bit mentally unstable about this now.
SO when you joined labour you were outnumbered 3-1 by Momentum.
That makes the Tories look moderate
It's actually around 6-4, if you look at the NEC elections. Possibly people like SO resigning has tilted it further to Momentum, but it's impossible to say. There has been an increase in new members in the last 3 months in the two CLPs I know about - not sure whether they lean left, right or neither.
The ERG are getting what they wanted and are holding the Tory party and the rest of the country hostage. They lied to us during the referendum campaign about wanting a deal. They are utter shits who are prepared to play politics with people’s jobs and services and lies to get what they want.
There is no good way out for the Tories from here.
Never underestimate the Tories instinct for self-preservation. They will spin 180 and argue that black=white all along if it saves the party.
As Cyclefree made clear yesterday, fundamentalism has crept into the party. For every David Herdson and Richard Nabavi there is now an Mark Francois and Andrew Bridgen. And it is the latter group that is getting bigger.
SO when you joined labour you were outnumbered 3-1 by Momentum.
That makes the Tories look moderate
The UKIPers are taking over the Tories.
well, they cant be very good at it theyve had long enough, Jezzas lot captured Labour in 2 years
The UKIPers have been at it for less than two years and they have already got the government on course for a No Deal Brexit.
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
Nope - we are going to continually bang our head against the wall until we end up dead with a blood clot unless someone stops it - and so far there is zero chance of that..
It's upsetting me now. Leave and No Deal are acquiring and spending money from somewhere again. I see them on Facebook when things are forwarded. I got a Wetherspoons magazine through my letterbox yesterday. Why? I ranted at my wife thinking her work curmudgeon had passed it onto her. I rant like Malcolm Tucker. Turns out it was posted. I tore it up. The chimp considered burning it, peeing on it, spilling seed on it, photographing my resultant opinion of it. I didn't.
I looked to post the torn copy back through the letterbox of one of their pubs. It didn't have a letterbox. The chimp imagined it should be flaming, not seriously, but it crossed my mindi It went into the bin at work with a further small dose of Tuckering aimed at it,, for the benefit of the passing dry Tory. I'm sat, resting with a coffee.
It could not have maddened me more had Putin quite literally poured poison through my letterbox to harm me and my family.
And we are supposed to reason calmly, protest peacefully and play nice. Fine, fine, but that's going to need some big deep breaths along the way, because I'm feeling a little bit mentally unstable about this now.
The PM's strategy, if this be not too weighty a description for it, seems clear. Keep the deal alive at all costs. By the deal I mean the DEAL, the WA inc the backstop, not this new unicorn without the backstop which although a unicorn will have the lifespan of a wasp.
Keeping the deal alive is the most she can do at this point, and it is all that she needs to do. The ticking down of the clock, together with parliament's inability to coalesce around an alternative either to her or her plan, will do the rest. The deal will be passed because at the end of the day there will not be the stomach for leaving without it. Or so she hopes.
Is she right? I think so. I think she is right in both senses of the word. Right, in that things will pan out as above and she will eventually get her deal through. And also right in intent. She knows the deal is the best and only way to leave the EU in an adult fashion, therefore she is absolutely justified in fighting tooth & nail for it. She is behaving with honour and I am rooting for her.
To be honest I have been consistent in supporting TM and her deal. I do have my reservations about her but listening to her numerous appearances at the dispatch box, and on the media, her knowledge of the subject is second to none compared to Corbyn who is clueless. I genuinely believe he does not understand the options or implications and usually reads from a script and hates being interrupted
I expect TM will win through and if she does, she is likely to see a country breathe a sigh of relief
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
It's upsetting me now. Leave and No Deal are acquiring and spending money from somewhere again. I see them on Facebook when things are forwarded. I got a Wetherspoons magazine through my letterbox yesterday. Why? I ranted at my wife thinking her work curmudgeon had passed it onto her. I rant like Malcolm Tucker. Turns out it was posted. I tore it up. The chimp considered burning it, peeing on it, spilling seed on it, photographing my resultant opinion of it. I didn't.
I looked to post the torn copy back through the letterbox of one of their pubs. It didn't have a letterbox. The chimp imagined it should be flaming, not seriously, but it crossed my mindi It went into the bin at work with a further small dose of Tuckering aimed at it,, for the benefit of the passing dry Tory. I'm sat, resting with a coffee.
It could not have maddened me more had Putin quite literally poured poison through my letterbox to harm me and my family.
And we are supposed to reason calmly, protest peacefully and play nice. Fine, fine, but that's going to need some big deep breaths along the way, because I'm feeling a little bit mentally unstable about this now.
You are aware that the People's Vote lot have spent a small fortune on social media advertising recently too?
Comments
Your usual contention is that No Desl inevitably leads to adoption of the Euro and dissolution of the U.K. into Euroslush
Germany's far from immune. Merkel sought to abolish nuclear power after the Fukushima event (Germany being renowned for its earthquakes and tsunamis), then decided to throw open the borders for the whole world. That worked brilliantly.
Not to mention the EU was asking the UK to say what it wanted, then insists there's no room to change anything.
But we can already see the second meaningful vote looming over the horizon. We all know how it's going to go. So does May.
May goes to Brussels and fails.
Announces that the WA cannot be amended and we need to find another solution.
States she has agreement to extend A50 for one year, based on negotiation of a Norway solution
Puts vote to commons for mandate to negotiate that, wins it with opposition support but ERG flounce to form some other group
Cross party government forms.
Negotiations start led by Rudd
Deal done, passes by August.
He has no power over them, and limited power over the Labour MPs who rebelled.
The people that can and need to be won over are Tory remainer MPs who have privately said they can't countenance no deal, but are not yet doing anything about it. Corbyn is very poorly placed to appeal to them, had he been leading the amendment instead of Yvette, it would have been harder to get Tory votes.
Also - blocking No Deal is choosing party and country for Labour.
There are 1000 Bercow- to the Pico-.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyJHzYsX0AAYUb1.jpg:large
Going to Premier Sports with some games on Free Sports:
https://www.premiersports.com/football/serie-a-on-premier-sports.html
Corbyn might not agree with you that blocking No Deal is choosing party and country for Labour. He may see "No Deal" as a great advantage to the Labour Party prospects of gaining power, even if No Deal damages the country. That's the point.
But there are some cracking performances, notably Cheney, Bush and Rumsfeld.
Then there can be Berpigs, Berdogs, Bersheep as well as the familiar Bercows.
So despite its tiny size, you can still have plenty of beef with a Bercow....
But in any case it’s pointless because the ERG malcontents will move onto something else they object to and she still won’t get Labour votes.
No - it’s No Deal. Or No Brexit and the destruction of the Tory party. Though, frankly, I’d be fine with the latter. They are an absolute shower - and even that is being far too kind to them.
But even if it would have, what the British certainly could have done was to work out what they wanted themselves, rather than pulling the trigger then spending the first 18 months negotiating with themselves.
Glaswegian is pretty awesome...
Assuming we leave with no deal there will be chaos. Why do the headbangers think they will be rewarded by a grateful public for that?
Apparently Nadine was overheard commenting that Tory MPs voting against hard Brexit didn't care about their jobs...
If Brexit is bad, they are all just as stuffed as the rest of us
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1090553001163571200
There seems to be a lack of discussion on a second referendum which must now be most unlikely. Dominic Grieve on Sky said that in a choice between TM deal and no deal he would vote for the deal
It was a good day for TM seeing all the amendments fall, apart from the non binding no deal vote, and then see Brady's amendment pass. The EU mantra has been tell us what you want and now TM is doing just that, and they do not have an answer other than a stone walling 'no'
There must now be a real risk for the EU and their supporters that public opinion will move against them if they do not respond with some compromise. You are not getting £39 billion if you do not agree is a very powerful argument
Lots of moving parts and understandable despair from those who all along wanted to stop brexit and who now need to be planning a re-join campaign, as brexit is almost certain now in one way or another
There may be direct discussions about finding ways to create a soft border again but it won’t be the current proposal - that makes no sense post an exit
That makes the Tories look moderate
And JC Bamford is paying this twit £3000 per hour for his advice. Note to self: check whether Bamford is a listed company and tell financial advisor to make sure none of my my money is invested in his shares.
Mr. Observer, that's an exaggeration. Even if you believe ERG = UKIP, the ERG are in a small minority. Labour's far left sits on the front bench.
They want no deal.
If we end up with no deal, their preferred option, I don't think the adoring public are going to thank them.
The way the Labour front bench have managed this whole winter crisis has been vague, reactive and providing no leadership at all. Almost like the “we tried we honestly did” shrug hides alternate agenda. There’s going to be massive massive repercussions for Labour following Brexit. The vast amount of remainers, vast amount of which are Labour members and supporters, genuinely believed hard brexit could be stopped, that there was a genuine chance of a People’s vote. And they are going to turn on someone or something now that’s gone up in smoke. Starmer certainly has to go. He failed. You failed to prevent hard brexit you claim is bad, It’s a disaster of a failure for you, you go.
In fact brexit is great news for nationalist and minor parties and the libdems. Labour at war and likely split over its post brexit EU policy, whilst for the Tories, Mays deal with fudged backstop is still chequers. Unless May’s chequers plan her MPs turned into brexit starts delivering the results leave voters demanded, overtime Farage, and people to the right of him are going to have a field day at the expense of the Conservative Party. Can those leave voters demands be met? No of course they can’t unless you can turn off globalisation, immigration, deindustrialisation and bridge the disconnect between political elite and the people. There is zilch in brexit that helps with any of that, there’s plenty in brexit that throws up new risks and challenges that may make Britain poorer, a squeeze on public spending tighter, our rates of debt interest higher, and this slide in reputation started by brexit even harder to manage.
try harder William
It is a measure of how up shit creek they are that I now view Corbyn and his leftist loons and the ERG as mirror images of each other.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
May our PM already has.
That's why Rep. Joe Crowley got his ass kicked by a socialist Latina in the Dem Primary.
I don't think Rep. Ocasio-Cortez cares about the Irish back stop.
The original deal, while widely disliked, is still (1) a deal, and (2) better than some of the alternatives to a sufficiently large number of MPs as to potentially form an acceptable least-worst option, when confronted with No Deal or Remain.
However, if that deal is ultimately endorsed, then it's extremely likely the UK would ask for, and get, a short extension to do the legislative paperwork.
On the other hand, No Deal is now much more likely than 27%, and if it does happen, it's likely to happen on March 29.
Keeping the deal alive is the most she can do at this point, and it is all that she needs to do. The ticking down of the clock, together with parliament's inability to coalesce around an alternative either to her or her plan, will do the rest. The deal will be passed because at the end of the day there will not be the stomach for leaving without it. Or so she hopes.
Is she right? I think so. I think she is right in both senses of the word. Right, in that things will pan out as above and she will eventually get her deal through. And also right in intent. She knows the deal is the best and only way to leave the EU in an adult fashion, therefore she is absolutely justified in fighting tooth & nail for it. She is behaving with honour and I am rooting for her.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I looked to post the torn copy back through the letterbox of one of their pubs. It didn't have a letterbox. The chimp imagined it should be flaming, not seriously, but it crossed my mindi It went into the bin at work with a further small dose of Tuckering aimed at it,, for the benefit of the passing dry Tory. I'm sat, resting with a coffee.
It could not have maddened me more had Putin quite literally poured poison through my letterbox to harm me and my family.
And we are supposed to reason calmly, protest peacefully and play nice. Fine, fine, but that's going to need some big deep breaths along the way, because I'm feeling a little bit mentally unstable about this now.
I expect TM will win through and if she does, she is likely to see a country breathe a sigh of relief
And if the Tory party is setting about deselecting MPs like Boles -
https://www.stamfordmercury.co.uk/news/hundreds-tell-stamford-conservative-association-they-feel-utterly-betrayed-by-nick-boles-9060317/
- an MP who voted for May's deal, then a plea that the "far right is not in power" rather misses the point.