Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Do you accept after yesterday that thr Tories are thoroughly deluded?
In two weeks May has to come back to the Commons. It's unlikely the EU will have given ground on the backstop by then, even if the government were somehow able to articulate what its so-called alternative arrangements were. So in all likelihood, faced with a rising prospect of No Deal, the Cooper amendment would pass at this point, including perhaps with support from current Cabinet ministers. The government faces losing control of the process, and the ERG and DUP then will have to decide whether they can support the deal, with no substantive changes, or allow parliament to preside over a softer form of Brexit. I would guess not enough would support the deal for it to pass, so a delay still seems significantly more likely than not. It does not seem dramatically mis-priced.
SO when you joined labour you were outnumbered 3-1 by Momentum.
That makes the Tories look moderate
It's actually around 6-4, if you look at the NEC elections. Possibly people like SO resigning has tilted it further to Momentum, but it's impossible to say. There has been an increase in new members in the last 3 months in the two CLPs I know about - not sure whether they lean left, right or neither.
Yep, Momentum got 60% of the CLP vote and 100% of the NEC seats. The elected members now do as they are told by the leadership.
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
A fresh referendum will only be held if Parliament fails to resolve the impasse and if it does, throwing the decision back to the people will be positioned as an admission of failure.
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
There’s going to be massive massive repercussions for Labour following Brexit. The vast amount of remainers, vast amount of which are Labour members and supporters, genuinely believed hard brexit could be stopped, that there was a genuine chance of a People’s vote.
The tories are very lucky to have him in charge of labour. Imagine what massive additional pain an effective scheming pro-eu leader could cause may (given how much grief the likes of grieve has from her own side).
I think if labour did have one, may would have thrown in the towel by now, probably had a GE and labour in power.
The cult will still believe jezza is fighting brexit toe and nail though.
As I’ve been saying for a while, the idea that the US will do the UK any favours at all if we are perceived to have caused Ireland any kibd of harm is for the fairies. The Irish American lobby is immensely powerful - especially on the Democrat side. Presidential nomination candidates will also have to have a take on this.
We’ve been very clear we’re not going to impose a hard border
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Do you accept after yesterday that thr Tories are thoroughly deluded?
Some are beyond deluded but they have united for now and for the first time the two opposites are talking about an agreed compromise. That is progress
However, they are aided by a dreadful opposition leader in Corbyn who has again deferred a discussion on a second referendum until March, and of course really wants a hard brexit himself
As I’ve been saying for a while, the idea that the US will do the UK any favours at all if we are perceived to have caused Ireland any kibd of harm is for the fairies. The Irish American lobby is immensely powerful - especially on the Democrat side. Presidential nomination candidates will also have to have a take on this.
We’ve been very clear we’re not going to impose a hard border
Unilaterally leaving a shared customs and regulatory space imposes a hard problem, which isn't solved by absolving ourselves of the responsiblity for it.
In two weeks May has to come back to the Commons. It's unlikely the EU will have given ground on the backstop by then, even if the government were somehow able to articulate what its so-called alternative arrangements were. So in all likelihood, faced with a rising prospect of No Deal, the Cooper amendment would pass at this point, including perhaps with support from current Cabinet ministers. The government faces losing control of the process, and the ERG and DUP then will have to decide whether they can support the deal, with no substantive changes, or allow parliament to preside over a softer form of Brexit. I would guess not enough would support the deal for it to pass, so a delay still seems significantly more likely than not. It does not seem dramatically mis-priced.
Whilst there is no indication that the EU has any desire to move, and is too politically entrenched to do so even if they wanted, one has to wonder if anyone there is reflecting on the fact that their official position appears to be that they are content for a hard border to happen in Ireland in 4 weeks time, but are implacably opposed to any agreement that potentially result in a hard border in 2.5 years. Maybe they have secret legal advice that the Article 50 process can't actually be concluded without a withdrawal agreement...
No deal is not sustainable for the UK and wouldn't be sustained long enough for the practical question of a hard Irish border to arise. No deal would just mean a new set of negotiations with the same objectives.
Absolutely. No Deal will be over much quicker than a US shutdown as the effects will be far more damaging and direct. There will then be a deal, wholly on the EU’s terms.
Indeed. And it will very likely be considerably worse for Britain than what is on offer now, which is itself worse than what was on offer with Cameron’s deal.
The longer British politicians play fantasy politics, the worse any deals we get will become and the greater the harm to the country.
Apparently the great Parliamentary “triumph” last night was to get members of the same political party to vote on the same side for a meaningless amendment. I mean, really, WTF!
We are heading for No Deal. We are trashing our reputation and relationships with our immediate neighbours. We are diminishing ourselves in the eye of the world, those parts of it which are bothering to give us any attention. And we are making the prospects for our country worse.
And all this because of a weak PM more concerned to keep her party together, an opportunistic Opposition Leaver unwilling to follow party policy and MPs too cowardly to act in the interests of the country.
It does look like that. Not good at all. What does good look like? It’s not clear.
May goes to Brussels and fails. Announces that the WA cannot be amended and we need to find another solution. States she has agreement to extend A50 for one year, based on negotiation of a Norway solution Puts vote to commons for mandate to negotiate that, wins it with opposition support but ERG flounce to form some other group Cross party government forms. Negotiations start led by Rudd Deal done, passes by August.
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
And the irony is that I am exactly the sort of voter the Tories ought to be aiming for. Socially liberal, want a well run economy but feel strongly that we must help those worse off than ourselves, no time for barking mad ideologies. I loathe Corbyn quite as much as I loathe the ERG. If the Tories lose people like me, who the hell are they going to get votes from?
It is a measure of how up shit creek they are that I now view Corbyn and his leftist loons and the ERG as mirror images of each other.
Sorry, I was getting diverted from important stuff by work etc.
I think that May and the EU will come up with some form of fudge on the back stop. An agreement that either party can give 5 years notice, for example, along with a declaration that there is no intention to do so. I think the EU and Ireland could live with that and I think that the Commons will too (just). The votes last night indicates how that might be done.
At the end of the day those votes indicate (to my surprise) that even although there is a clear and substantial remain majority in the Commons a very significant proportion of those remainers do accept that the vote has to be honoured. If it is to honoured then that should be by way of a deal so that are ongoing relationship with the EU is close and harmonious (not least since we might want to join again in the future). They are anxious to avoid a no deal scenario as the Spelman vote showed.
That vote also showed that when push finally comes to shove the ERG do not have the votes to prevent the deal and force no deal upon us, even if they really want to. My guess is that enough of their members will focus on the fact that they are leaving and vote for the deal.
There are several things that can go wrong with this and further idiocies, fantasies, delusions and incoherence are very much part of the package but I see a path now that May can hopefully follow.
Pitiful interview with Barclay on R4 right now. If May has a plan, she certainly hasn't told him what it is.
There's a chance she did tell him but he was too dim to understand it.
What's smaller than a pygmy?
A Bercow?
Pico- (symbol p) is a unit prefix in the metric system denoting one trillionth, a factor of 10−12 (0.000000000001). Derived from the Spanish pico, meaning peak, beak, bit, this was one of the original 12 prefixes defined in 1960 when the International System of Units was established.
There are 1000 Bercow- to the Pico-.
Surely the Ber is the prefix.
Then there can be Berpigs, Berdogs, Bersheep as well as the familiar Bercows.
There’s going to be massive massive repercussions for Labour following Brexit. The vast amount of remainers, vast amount of which are Labour members and supporters, genuinely believed hard brexit could be stopped, that there was a genuine chance of a People’s vote.
The tories are very lucky to have him in charge of labour. Imagine what massive additional pain an effective scheming pro-eu leader could cause may (given how much grief the likes of grieve has from her own side). .
If we dind't have Corbyn, the EU referendum would have been won by remain, Cameron would still be PM and we would be moaning about something else...
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Has Rep Boyle ever campaigned against a treaty negotiated by the President?
Congress routinely rejects trade deals negotiated by US administrations. The Irish American lobby is immensely powerful - especially the year before presidential elections!
And presumably he sees that as Congress exercising its rights rather than a President reneging on the deal?
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
PB has some yards to go obviously.
Erm, what talking? The conversation runs thus:
Conservative party: change the backstop to something else. EU: no - you don't even know what "something else is". Conservative party:... EU:... Conservative party:...
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Mr. Herdson, I think No Deal and we leave on 29 March is still 4 on Ladbrokes.
Yep. That's huge, IMO - and it implicitly (and rightly) puts the odds on leaving on 29/3 *with* a deal (as interacting per the market Mike quotes) as very long.
In two weeks May has to come back to the Commons. It's unlikely the EU will have given ground on the backstop by then, even if the government were somehow able to articulate what its so-called alternative arrangements were. So in all likelihood, faced with a rising prospect of No Deal, the Cooper amendment would pass at this point, including perhaps with support from current Cabinet ministers. The government faces losing control of the process, and the ERG and DUP then will have to decide whether they can support the deal, with no substantive changes, or allow parliament to preside over a softer form of Brexit. I would guess not enough would support the deal for it to pass, so a delay still seems significantly more likely than not. It does not seem dramatically mis-priced.
Once we are out with no deal there is no backstop. We either have an implemented hard border or not.
There may be direct discussions about finding ways to create a soft border again but it won’t be the current proposal - that makes no sense post an exit
Post exit, making Northern Ireland part of EU customs territory makes even more sense, and the political dynamics in Great Britain will remove any remaining leverage the DUP have to prevent it.
If it wasn’t for history a common British Isles custom Union would make sense
In two weeks May has to come back to the Commons. It's unlikely the EU will have given ground on the backstop by then, even if the government were somehow able to articulate what its so-called alternative arrangements were. So in all likelihood, faced with a rising prospect of No Deal, the Cooper amendment would pass at this point, including perhaps with support from current Cabinet ministers. The government faces losing control of the process, and the ERG and DUP then will have to decide whether they can support the deal, with no substantive changes, or allow parliament to preside over a softer form of Brexit. I would guess not enough would support the deal for it to pass, so a delay still seems significantly more likely than not. It does not seem dramatically mis-priced.
Once we are out with no deal there is no backstop. We either have an implemented hard border or not.
There may be direct discussions about finding ways to create a soft border again but it won’t be the current proposal - that makes no sense post an exit
Post exit, making Northern Ireland part of EU customs territory makes even more sense, and the political dynamics in Great Britain will remove any remaining leverage the DUP have to prevent it.
If it wasn’t for history a common British Isles custom Union would make sense
(Admittedly a big if)
We've got one right now. It's the Brexit cretins who want to tear it up.
Once we are out with no deal there is no backstop. We either have an implemented hard border or not.
There may be direct discussions about finding ways to create a soft border again but it won’t be the current proposal - that makes no sense post an exit
When we move to No Deal the Irish border will remain just as it is now. That will help the Irish, but it won't help us.
You mean the EU have been lying throughout the negotiations?
If this is the case why die in a ditch for the backstop
There’s going to be massive massive repercussions for Labour following Brexit. The vast amount of remainers, vast amount of which are Labour members and supporters, genuinely believed hard brexit could be stopped, that there was a genuine chance of a People’s vote.
The tories are very lucky to have him in charge of labour. Imagine what massive additional pain an effective scheming pro-eu leader could cause may (given how much grief the likes of grieve has from her own side). .
If we dind't have Corbyn, the EU referendum would have been won by remain, Cameron would still be PM and we would be moaning about something else...
Fair point....we could been all getting outraged at whose horse he had borrowed last weekend.
It's upsetting me now. Leave and No Deal are acquiring and spending money from somewhere again. I see them on Facebook when things are forwarded. I got a Wetherspoons magazine through my letterbox yesterday. Why? I ranted at my wife thinking her work curmudgeon had passed it onto her. I rant like Malcolm Tucker. Turns out it was posted. I tore it up. The chimp considered burning it, peeing on it, spilling seed on it, photographing my resultant opinion of it. I didn't.
I looked to post the torn copy back through the letterbox of one of their pubs. It didn't have a letterbox. The chimp imagined it should be flaming, not seriously, but it crossed my mindi It went into the bin at work with a further small dose of Tuckering aimed at it,, for the benefit of the passing dry Tory. I'm sat, resting with a coffee.
It could not have maddened me more had Putin quite literally poured poison through my letterbox to harm me and my family.
And we are supposed to reason calmly, protest peacefully and play nice. Fine, fine, but that's going to need some big deep breaths along the way, because I'm feeling a little bit mentally unstable about this now.
Calm down dear, it's only a humdinger of a constitutional crisis with the potential to wreak immeasurable damage on the economy and social fabric of the UK.
Has Rep Boyle ever campaigned against a treaty negotiated by the President?
Congress routinely rejects trade deals negotiated by US administrations. The Irish American lobby is immensely powerful - especially the year before presidential elections!
And presumably he sees that as Congress exercising its rights rather than a President reneging on the deal?
If the President spent two years arguing about the chlorinated chicken, signed a deal saying no chlorinated chicken, then showed up in Congress and asked his party to change the text to put back the chlorinated chicken, you'd say he was reneging on the deal.
You'd also probably say he was playing some kind of stupid domestic political game, which is what anybody looking at yesterday's vote would think.
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
PB has some yards to go obviously.
Erm, what talking? The conversation runs thus:
Conservative party: change the backstop to something else. EU: no - you don't even know what "something else is". Conservative party:... EU:... Conservative party:...
February 14.
There is diminishing appetite for this doom and gloom chicken licken approach that it's just too hard. It may be glacially slow and not binary enough for you but meh.
Compromise is boring - the media want clear winners and losers but it won't end like that. Fudge is coming - everyone is now arguing whether it contains nuts or raisins.
In two weeks May has to come back to the Commons. It's unlikely the EU will have given ground on the backstop by then, even if the government were somehow able to articulate what its so-called alternative arrangements were. So in all likelihood, faced with a rising prospect of No Deal, the Cooper amendment would pass at this point, including perhaps with support from current Cabinet ministers. The government faces losing control of the process, and the ERG and DUP then will have to decide whether they can support the deal, with no substantive changes, or allow parliament to preside over a softer form of Brexit. I would guess not enough would support the deal for it to pass, so a delay still seems significantly more likely than not. It does not seem dramatically mis-priced.
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
PB has some yards to go obviously.
Erm, what talking? The conversation runs thus:
Conservative party: change the backstop to something else. EU: no - you don't even know what "something else is". Conservative party:... EU:... Conservative party:...
February 14.
There is diminishing appetite for this doom and gloom chicken licken approach that it's just too hard. It may be glacially slow and not binary enough for you but meh.
Compromise is boring - the media want clear winners and losers but it won't end like that. Fudge is coming - everyone is now arguing whether it contains nuts or raisins.
If we dind't have Corbyn, the EU referendum would have been won by remain, Cameron would still be PM and we would be moaning about something else...
If we had gone for chaos with Ed Miliband instead of for Cameron there would not only have been no Corbyn, there would have been no EU referendum for remain to win or lose in the first place.
And to boot, we would have the Chancellor and the Home Secretary sleeping together. Joined up government.
In two weeks May has to come back to the Commons. It's unlikely the EU will have given ground on the backstop by then, even if the government were somehow able to articulate what its so-called alternative arrangements were. So in all likelihood, faced with a rising prospect of No Deal, the Cooper amendment would pass at this point, including perhaps with support from current Cabinet ministers. The government faces losing control of the process, and the ERG and DUP then will have to decide whether they can support the deal, with no substantive changes, or allow parliament to preside over a softer form of Brexit. I would guess not enough would support the deal for it to pass, so a delay still seems significantly more likely than not. It does not seem dramatically mis-priced.
Once we are out with no deal there is no backstop. We either have an implemented hard border or not.
There may be direct discussions about finding ways to create a soft border again but it won’t be the current proposal - that makes no sense post an exit
When we move to No Deal the Irish border will remain just as it is now. That will help the Irish, but it won't help us.
You mean the EU have been lying throughout the negotiations?
If this is the case why die in a ditch for the backstop
The backstop is necessary to the WA because without one there could be regulatory divergence between the Republic and NI which runs contrary to the GFA.
What is helpful is we now know where everyone stands
May: The can kicked may hit something magical Corbyn: Maximum chaos allows me to realise socialist nirvana only true believers know what that means, Remainers: Please help anybody out there? How are my Gin stockpiles? Jacob: Full Dick Dastardly operation to waste time and ensure no deal - after that allows me to achieve capitalist nirvana only true believers know what that means The public: No deal means nothing changes right? EU: What the...? DUP: annoying Ireland feels good Business: Amsterdam looks nice
Female elephants have tusks. Female rhinos have horns.
The beast to check would be the narwhal. I believe they're one of the main inspirations behind the the unicorn, and do have a unicorn-style horn/tusk.
Males only. A drunk Russian sailor in Vladivostok once told me. At the same time I noticed that the Russian Pacific Fleet only painted the side of the ship that faced the dock.
If we dind't have Corbyn, the EU referendum would have been won by remain, Cameron would still be PM and we would be moaning about something else...
If we had gone for chaos with Ed Miliband instead of for Cameron there would not only have been no Corbyn, there would have been no EU referendum for remain to win or lose in the first place.
And to boot, we would have the Chancellor and the Home Secretary sleeping together. Joined up government.
With Boles between them in the bed. One big wet centreground gangbang.
Is that right? I am not an expert on parliamentary procedure, but isn't May bringing another amendable motion substantively similar to the last one in a couple of weeks? And hoping to have another vote on the WA at some point after losing the last one by 230? Would seem a bit selective if that were OK but an amendment substantively similar to Cooper's were barred.
Is that right? I am not an expert on parliamentary procedure, but isn't May bringing another amendable motion substantively similar to the last one in a couple of weeks? And hoping to have another vote on the WA at some point after losing the last one by 230? Would seem a bit selective if that were OK but an amendment substantively similar to Cooper's were barred.
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
PB has some yards to go obviously.
Erm, what talking? The conversation runs thus:
Conservative party: change the backstop to something else. EU: no - you don't even know what "something else is". Conservative party:... EU:... Conservative party:...
February 14.
It does look as if the past few days' events have taken some outcomes off the table (revoking A50, a second referendum, extending A50 to faff around) so to that extent, I think it does make a resolution more likely.
Once we are out with no deal there is no backstop. We either have an implemented hard border or not.
There may be direct discussions about finding ways to create a soft border again but it won’t be the current proposal - that makes no sense post an exit
When we move to No Deal the Irish border will remain just as it is now. That will help the Irish, but it won't help us.
You mean the EU have been lying throughout the negotiations?
If this is the case why die in a ditch for the backstop
The backstop is necessary to the WA because without one there could be regulatory divergence between the Republic and NI which runs contrary to the GFA.
You have said there will be no hard border post no deal. That’s inconsistent with your point just above
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
PB has some yards to go obviously.
Erm, what talking? The conversation runs thus:
Conservative party: change the backstop to something else. EU: no - you don't even know what "something else is". Conservative party:... EU:... Conservative party:...
February 14.
It does look as if the past few days' events have taken some outcomes off the table (revoking A50, a second referendum, extending A50 to faff around) so to that extent, I think it does make a resolution more likely.
I still think the resolution is a deal with Labour. bringing Corbs to the table might be the #1 effect of last night.
I expect TM will win through and if she does, she is likely to see a country breathe a sigh of relief
She does need a 'backstop' though - a threat that will focus minds in the ERG and the DUP. Something they will hate which she makes clear to them will happen if the deal is blocked.
No Brexit or a BINO will not do, since the DUP could live with that, some of the ERG might fancy a 'betrayal' narrative, and she herself could not survive it.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
PB has some yards to go obviously.
Erm, what talking? The conversation runs thus:
Conservative party: change the backstop to something else. EU: no - you don't even know what "something else is". Conservative party:... EU:... Conservative party:...
February 14.
It does look as if the past few days' events have taken some outcomes off the table (revoking A50, a second referendum, extending A50 to faff around) so to that extent, I think it does make a resolution more likely.
The faffing around option was never on the table (the EU would not have assisted). Revoking without more was never under serious consideration and I don't think it looks any more or less likely than it did before.
A second referendum was and is only ever going to happen if Parliament fails in its duty to find a way through. Parliament is no closer to finding a way through than it was yesterday morning, a week ago, a month ago or two months ago. I'd say the chances of a second referendum have actually gone up.
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
PB has some yards to go obviously.
TG absolutely right. PB has been behind the real world for at least a week and a half.
It’s basically they don’t want to believe it, and so believe what they want to believe.
Meanwhile in the real world. One form of words will replace another form of words and everyone will hail a compromise and sign up. It’s called politics. We are brexiting on May’s deal. Wake up to it.
I still think the resolution is a deal with Labour. bringing Corbs to the table might be the #1 effect of last night.
What would his price be, do you think?
A change to the outline declaration on the future partnership document which would allow Labour to implement their plans more easily. (Since the FP is only a framework, that shouldn't be too difficult.)
In two weeks May has to come back to the Commons. It's unlikely the EU will have given ground on the backstop by then, even if the government were somehow able to articulate what its so-called alternative arrangements were. So in all likelihood, faced with a rising prospect of No Deal, the Cooper amendment would pass at this point, including perhaps with support from current Cabinet ministers. The government faces losing control of the process, and the ERG and DUP then will have to decide whether they can support the deal, with no substantive changes, or allow parliament to preside over a softer form of Brexit. I would guess not enough would support the deal for it to pass, so a delay still seems significantly more likely than not. It does not seem dramatically mis-priced.
Not sure I follow that link. Why wouldn't Cooper be able to rework her amendment or just submit a new one with a different date/length of extension period?
"I'd say the chances of a second referendum have actually gone up."
It's more likely than a revocation but what would it solve? The insult to half the electorate will be the same whatever the result, and a narrow victory for Remain won't close the issue. It will rumble on with added bitterness.
The chance of a major Remain victory is small without a wholesale boycott by Leavers. The genie is out the bottle and he's too big to go back in.
Edit: the only way to Remain and unite the country is to promote the concept of a unified Europe and have it accepted by the voters. That was always the Europhile's stumbling block and why, if economic arguments fail, they're history.
In two weeks May has to come back to the Commons. It's unlikely the EU will have given ground on the backstop by then, even if the government were somehow able to articulate what its so-called alternative arrangements were. So in all likelihood, faced with a rising prospect of No Deal, the Cooper amendment would pass at this point, including perhaps with support from current Cabinet ministers. The government faces losing control of the process, and the ERG and DUP then will have to decide whether they can support the deal, with no substantive changes, or allow parliament to preside over a softer form of Brexit. I would guess not enough would support the deal for it to pass, so a delay still seems significantly more likely than not. It does not seem dramatically mis-priced.
Not sure I follow that link. Why wouldn't Cooper be able to rework her amendment or just submit a new one with a different date/length of extension period?
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
PB has some yards to go obviously.
Erm, what talking? The conversation runs thus:
Conservative party: change the backstop to something else. EU: no - you don't even know what "something else is". Conservative party:... EU:... Conservative party:...
February 14.
It does look as if the past few days' events have taken some outcomes off the table (revoking A50, a second referendum, extending A50 to faff around) so to that extent, I think it does make a resolution more likely.
The faffing around option was never on the table (the EU would not have assisted). Revoking without more was never under serious consideration and I don't think it looks any more or less likely than it did before.
A second referendum was and is only ever going to happen if Parliament fails in its duty to find a way through. Parliament is no closer to finding a way through than it was yesterday morning, a week ago, a month ago or two months ago. I'd say the chances of a second referendum have actually gone up.
Unicorn spotted! This is the real world calling Meeks, come back please.
"I'd say the chances of a second referendum have actually gone up."
It's more likely than a revocation but what would it solve? The insult to half the electorate will be the same whatever the result, and a narrow victory for Remain won't close the issue. It will rumble on with added bitterness.
The chance of a major Remain victory is small without a wholesale boycott by Leavers. The genie is out the bottle and he's too big to go back in.
I didn't say it was a good outcome. There are no good outcomes from here.
A second referendum was and is only ever going to happen if Parliament fails in its duty to find a way through. Parliament is no closer to finding a way through than it was yesterday morning, a week ago, a month ago or two months ago. I'd say the chances of a second referendum have actually gone up.
"I'd say the chances of a second referendum have actually gone up."
It's more likely than a revocation but what would it solve? The insult to half the electorate will be the same whatever the result, and a narrow victory for Remain won't close the issue. It will rumble on with added bitterness.
The chance of a major Remain victory is small without a wholesale boycott by Leavers. The genie is out the bottle and he's too big to go back in.
I don't think your take on the likely outcome is right but if it's a Leave win, what it achieves is getting the deal through Parliament, assuming that's the trade that brings the referendum into existence.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
PB has some yards to go obviously.
Erm, what talking? The conversation runs thus:
Conservative party: change the backstop to something else. EU: no - you don't even know what "something else is". Conservative party:... EU:... Conservative party:...
February 14.
It does look as if the past few days' events have taken some outcomes off the table (revoking A50, a second referendum, extending A50 to faff around) so to that extent, I think it does make a resolution more likely.
The faffing around option was never on the table (the EU would not have assisted). Revoking without more was never under serious consideration and I don't think it looks any more or less likely than it did before.
A second referendum was and is only ever going to happen if Parliament fails in its duty to find a way through. Parliament is no closer to finding a way through than it was yesterday morning, a week ago, a month ago or two months ago. I'd say the chances of a second referendum have actually gone up.
Unicorn spotted! This is the real world calling Meeks, come back please.
Your post is missing something: anything other than blind disagreement. I explained my logic. I get that you don't like it. Perhaps you might wish to provide something other than an emotional response?
On a morning when every EU official who has bothered getting up this morning has reiterated that the EU is not reopening the withdrawal agreement, you are going to struggle to find much evidence that there is any willingness for the EU to offer a figleaf to cover Theresa May's blushes.
A second referendum was and is only ever going to happen if Parliament fails in its duty to find a way through. Parliament is no closer to finding a way through than it was yesterday morning, a week ago, a month ago or two months ago. I'd say the chances of a second referendum have actually gone up.
In two weeks May has to come back to the Commons. It's unlikely the EU will have given ground on the backstop by then, even if the government were somehow able to articulate what its so-called alternative arrangements were. So in all likelihood, faced with a rising prospect of No Deal, the Cooper amendment would pass at this point, including perhaps with support from current Cabinet ministers. The government faces losing control of the process, and the ERG and DUP then will have to decide whether they can support the deal, with no substantive changes, or allow parliament to preside over a softer form of Brexit. I would guess not enough would support the deal for it to pass, so a delay still seems significantly more likely than not. It does not seem dramatically mis-priced.
Not sure I follow that link. Why wouldn't Cooper be able to rework her amendment or just submit a new one with a different date/length of extension period?
The Speaker, stickler for tradition that he is, won't let her.
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
PB has some yards to go obviously.
TG absolutely right. PB has been behind the real world for at least a week and a half.
It’s basically they don’t want to believe it, and so believe what they want to believe.
Meanwhile in the real world. One form of words will replace another form of words and everyone will hail a compromise and sign up. It’s called politics. We are brexiting on May’s deal. Wake up to it.
Some of us have been at that point a while.
It's a shit deal. But it's a deal.
It allows us to survive Brexit and move on to the next stage. (Which is abrogating those bits of the shit deal we don't like...)
I accept you think the referendum should be honoured despite your many arguments against Leave.
I also think so too. It would be nice if the EU could be revised but that's never going to happen. It should push on full speed or settle for being a trading bloc alone.
A change to the future partnership document which would allow Labour to implement their plans more easily. (Since the FP is only a framework, that shouldn't be too difficult.)
Yes, I see the logic. I used to have this view myself - strike a deal with Labour to get the WA passed - but I have gone off it a bit now.
Reason being, I think accepting a Labour brexit, a BINO, would not be survivable for Mrs May. If she did that I think she would have to step down and let the party elect a new leader to fight a GE asap after Brexit date.
So what I'm more going with these days is that she will focus on the other side - the ERG/DUP - her own side - and will try to bludgeon her deal through by terrorizing them with a pre brexit GE (under her) unless they fall in line.
A second referendum was and is only ever going to happen if Parliament fails in its duty to find a way through. Parliament is no closer to finding a way through than it was yesterday morning, a week ago, a month ago or two months ago. I'd say the chances of a second referendum have actually gone up.
Does it have the numbers ?
Looking at the current factional balance I'd say if TMay whips it then yes, parliament will pass Deal-Subject-To-Binding-Referendum-Vs-Remain. If she keeps opposing it and backbenchers try to do it on their own then probably not.
Obviously the impending deadline may shift things around though.
I accept you think the referendum should be honoured despite your many arguments against Leave.
I also think so too. It would be nice if the EU could be revised but that's never going to happen. It should push on full speed or settle for being a trading bloc alone.
To be clear, Brexit would be a complete unmitigated disaster. The choice is between competing disasters now.
Why do you need a second referendum just because Parliament didn't like the result of the first. Would that apply to future referendums and to a Scottish independence vote if it comes?
I accept you think the referendum should be honoured despite your many arguments against Leave.
I also think so too. It would be nice if the EU could be revised but that's never going to happen. It should push on full speed or settle for being a trading bloc alone.
To be clear, Brexit would be a complete unmitigated disaster. The choice is between competing disasters now.
A marginally mitigated disaster, then - if it is to be preferred to the alternative ?
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food, and with a government prepared to use martial law if people object, seems to me to be far closer to a far right government than I ever expected to see in my lifetime in Britain.
And it makes the chances of a Far Left government much higher. Indeed, it will likely act as its midwife.
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
PB has some yards to go obviously.
TG absolutely right. PB has been behind the real world for at least a week and a half.
It’s basically they don’t want to believe it, and so believe what they want to believe.
Meanwhile in the real world. One form of words will replace another form of words and everyone will hail a compromise and sign up. It’s called politics. We are brexiting on May’s deal. Wake up to it.
Fudge on the backstop has been confidently predicted since last January. Still none is forthcoming. If May doesn't get anything in the next couple of weeks will you change your prediction, or insist that it still just needs one last heave?
Pitiful interview with Barclay on R4 right now. If May has a plan, she certainly hasn't told him what it is.
There's a chance she did tell him but he was too dim to understand it.
What's smaller than a pygmy?
That's very heightist.
In egalitarian Glasgow the wee man is just as likely to do violent damage to you as the big man.
Was in Glasgow last night at a gigg, and one of the security said to a youngster who was there "hey wee man, did you have a good time tonight?" Glaswegian is pretty awesome...
Something at Celtic Connections?
Aye, wee man's a pretty flexible & nuanced term, not really negative on the whole (apart from the usual contexts -stop being a prick wee man etc). The wee Glesga hardman is a stereotype but definitely not a myth, perhaps that still gives it some cachet.
Miss Cyclefree, whilst I am not enamoured with the Government, I do think that takes things too.
The far right is not in power. The far left is in opposition. Whilst that's alarming, the reverse would be far more so.
Edited extra bit: ahem. Too far*.
A No Deal exit so that the ERG can follow their fantasy of a Britain doing what it wants unconstrained by any sort of rules or treaties or legally binding promises it has made, even at the cost of businesses relocating (“Fuck business”) or the risk of shortages of medicines or food
We have a deal on offer. We have the ability to remain by revoking. We could have another referendum. But rather than taking any of these options we intend to take our head and bash it again against a brick wall and then complain that the brick wall has given us a headache.
I am sure you accept that after yesterday a second referendum is unlikely, and revoking is near impossible
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I know the Remainer wake is in full flow but I think that is denial. The EU and the Uk are back talking on the one remaining point of the deal that is preventing progress.
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
PB has some yards to go obviously.
TG absolutely right. PB has been behind the real world for at least a week and a half.
It’s basically they don’t want to believe it, and so believe what they want to believe.
Meanwhile in the real world. One form of words will replace another form of words and everyone will hail a compromise and sign up. It’s called politics. We are brexiting on May’s deal. Wake up to it.
Some of us have been at that point a while.
It's a shit deal. But it's a deal.
It allows us to survive Brexit and move on to the next stage. (Which is abrogating those bits of the shit deal we don't like...)
Absolutely. And at same time, whilst framework arrangement so nebulous, and Mays Plan isn’t a really a plan at all, you look forward to mitigating what you call shit aspects of it, remainers and soft brexiteers look forward to building on those what you call shit aspects, knowing they have some strong numbers to achieve that.
Comments
I wonder if May would try to cling on after her deal fails/succeeds.
The government faces losing control of the process, and the ERG and DUP then will have to decide whether they can support the deal, with no substantive changes, or allow parliament to preside over a softer form of Brexit. I would guess not enough would support the deal for it to pass, so a delay still seems significantly more likely than not. It does not seem dramatically mis-priced.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1090554710858387456?s=21
....
Probably means it won't happen.
Nothing that happened yesterday makes the resolution of that impasse any more likely.
I think if labour did have one, may would have thrown in the towel by now, probably had a GE and labour in power.
The cult will still believe jezza is fighting brexit toe and nail though.
However, they are aided by a dreadful opposition leader in Corbyn who has again deferred a discussion on a second referendum until March, and of course really wants a hard brexit himself
https://twitter.com/AndrewSparrow/status/1090567891890647045
Sure there will be noise and threats from both sides but the days of wailing that there is no hope in the deluded hope that this will mean Brexit isn't happening seem to be over amongst more and more MPs.
PB has some yards to go obviously.
I think that May and the EU will come up with some form of fudge on the back stop. An agreement that either party can give 5 years notice, for example, along with a declaration that there is no intention to do so. I think the EU and Ireland could live with that and I think that the Commons will too (just). The votes last night indicates how that might be done.
At the end of the day those votes indicate (to my surprise) that even although there is a clear and substantial remain majority in the Commons a very significant proportion of those remainers do accept that the vote has to be honoured. If it is to honoured then that should be by way of a deal so that are ongoing relationship with the EU is close and harmonious (not least since we might want to join again in the future). They are anxious to avoid a no deal scenario as the Spelman vote showed.
That vote also showed that when push finally comes to shove the ERG do not have the votes to prevent the deal and force no deal upon us, even if they really want to. My guess is that enough of their members will focus on the fact that they are leaving and vote for the deal.
There are several things that can go wrong with this and further idiocies, fantasies, delusions and incoherence are very much part of the package but I see a path now that May can hopefully follow.
Conservative party: change the backstop to something else.
EU: no - you don't even know what "something else is".
Conservative party:...
EU:...
Conservative party:...
February 14.
So Portugal is ready to talk ?
May is not in Brussels today - no point going back without a bit more flesh on the alternatives - including the Malthouse ones.
Progress !
(Admittedly a big if)
Welcome.
We'll put you down as a Remainer.
If this is the case why die in a ditch for the backstop
You'd also probably say he was playing some kind of stupid domestic political game, which is what anybody looking at yesterday's vote would think.
Female elephants have tusks. Female rhinos have horns.
The beast to check would be the narwhal. I believe they're one of the main inspirations behind the the unicorn, and do have a unicorn-style horn/tusk.
Compromise is boring - the media want clear winners and losers but it won't end like that. Fudge is coming - everyone is now arguing whether it contains nuts or raisins.
https://www.boohoo.com/heart-unicorn-onesie/NZZ90244.html
https://www.discoverwildlife.com/animal-facts/mammals/why-do-female-reindeer-grow-antlers/
And to boot, we would have the Chancellor and the Home Secretary sleeping together. Joined up government.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconsideration_of_a_motion&ved=2ahUKEwjJjMfEtJXgAhVSVBUIHQ9jA7sQFjACegQIDhAI&usg=AOvVaw3HBOdWV0hLRwXoZous0A8C
May: The can kicked may hit something magical
Corbyn: Maximum chaos allows me to realise socialist nirvana only true believers know what that means,
Remainers: Please help anybody out there? How are my Gin stockpiles?
Jacob: Full Dick Dastardly operation to waste time and ensure no deal - after that allows me to achieve capitalist nirvana only true believers know what that means
The public: No deal means nothing changes right?
EU: What the...?
DUP: annoying Ireland feels good
Business: Amsterdam looks nice
(former Brockley resident here....)
And Welcome
I suggest that that be considered the definitive answer as to whether female unicorns have horns.
We have gamed the war with Spain, and they lose. bring it on.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconsideration_of_a_motion&ved=2ahUKEwjJjMfEtJXgAhVSVBUIHQ9jA7sQFjACegQIDhAI&usg=AOvVaw3HBOdWV0hLRwXoZous0A8C
No Brexit or a BINO will not do, since the DUP could live with that, some of the ERG might fancy a 'betrayal' narrative, and she herself could not survive it.
So I think the threat might be GENERAL ELECTION.
A second referendum was and is only ever going to happen if Parliament fails in its duty to find a way through. Parliament is no closer to finding a way through than it was yesterday morning, a week ago, a month ago or two months ago. I'd say the chances of a second referendum have actually gone up.
It’s basically they don’t want to believe it, and so believe what they want to believe.
Meanwhile in the real world. One form of words will replace another form of words and everyone will hail a compromise and sign up. It’s called politics. We are brexiting on May’s deal. Wake up to it.
Why wouldn't Cooper be able to rework her amendment or just submit a new one with a different date/length of extension period?
"I'd say the chances of a second referendum have actually gone up."
It's more likely than a revocation but what would it solve? The insult to half the electorate will be the same whatever the result, and a narrow victory for Remain won't close the issue. It will rumble on with added bitterness.
The chance of a major Remain victory is small without a wholesale boycott by Leavers. The genie is out the bottle and he's too big to go back in.
Edit: the only way to Remain and unite the country is to promote the concept of a unified Europe and have it accepted by the voters. That was always the Europhile's stumbling block and why, if economic arguments fail, they're history.
On a morning when every EU official who has bothered getting up this morning has reiterated that the EU is not reopening the withdrawal agreement, you are going to struggle to find much evidence that there is any willingness for the EU to offer a figleaf to cover Theresa May's blushes.
https://twitter.com/SDLPlive/status/1090579730145918977
It's a shit deal. But it's a deal.
It allows us to survive Brexit and move on to the next stage. (Which is abrogating those bits of the shit deal we don't like...)
I accept you think the referendum should be honoured despite your many arguments against Leave.
I also think so too. It would be nice if the EU could be revised but that's never going to happen. It should push on full speed or settle for being a trading bloc alone.
Reason being, I think accepting a Labour brexit, a BINO, would not be survivable for Mrs May. If she did that I think she would have to step down and let the party elect a new leader to fight a GE asap after Brexit date.
So what I'm more going with these days is that she will focus on the other side - the ERG/DUP - her own side - and will try to bludgeon her deal through by terrorizing them with a pre brexit GE (under her) unless they fall in line.
Obviously the impending deadline may shift things around though.
Why do you need a second referendum just because Parliament didn't like the result of the first. Would that apply to future referendums and to a Scottish independence vote if it comes?
Aye, wee man's a pretty flexible & nuanced term, not really negative on the whole (apart from the usual contexts -stop being a prick wee man etc). The wee Glesga hardman is a stereotype but definitely not a myth, perhaps that still gives it some cachet.
So everyone’s happy and up for it. Bring it on.
That’s where we are now isn’t it?