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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some comfort for TMay from YouGov – 56% of those polled have f

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  • I don't think pity was the emotion Thatcher sought.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141
    edited January 2019

    If that's your mission statement, it's stupid and you're doomed.

    Your mission statement should be "we plan to continue to exist, screw your parochial 'family company' bullshit, this is capitalism and we've got bills to pay".

    The true strategic mission should be 'become an Amazon affiliate'. Because it's either that or wait for the day Amazon decides to get into your line of business and uses its terrifying economies of scale and logistic networks to undercut you until you bleed to death.
    Mrs Bezos may soon prove to be the first person who has managed to bleed Amazon once her divorce gets under way
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,609
    ydoethur said:

    I only know of one direct pitched battle between cavalry and a navy.

    The cavalry won.

    Mind you, I think the weather had something to do with it...

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_the_Dutch_fleet_at_Den_Helder
    Fantastic stuff. I bet that was a grand victory to tell tales about later in one's career.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,302
    HYUFD said:

    She can't as even if she got a majority of 100, given at least a third of Tory MPs would likely be committed No Dealers that would still not ensure her Deal got through.


    In fact the only way the Deal may get through now is in a Remain v Deal referendum (or better still but less likely to pass the Commons, a Deal v No Deal referendum)
    I think those 380 or so Tories (in a 100 maj) would find it pretty difficult not to vote her Deal through if she had just won an election on the back of a promise to deliver her Deal (a manifesto all the Tories had stood on).
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    We know she is diabetic but unless medical confirmation of other conditions are made it is not in anyone's interest to make statements without evidence
    I mean she's not high-functioning. One of the features of a high-functioning individual is, though they are neurologically incapable of *understanding* human behaviour, they at least have learned how to fake competence.

    I don't think anybody would credibly accuse May of faking competence.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,578
    kle4 said:

    What do they intend to do with it? Control without a plan won't be control at all.
    Somebody should have told Vote Leave that three years ago.
  • Chris said:

    Perhaps the best we can hope for now is that May will carry on making the noises she thinks will keep the Tory party in one piece, but will acquiesce in the House of Commons taking the responsibility out of her hands.
    Everyone wants the responsibility out of their hands. That's the problem.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    It's going to be No Deal, because the malfunctioning Maybot will let it happen, and the chickenshit simpletons of the Tory front bench have no idea how to turn it off.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,340
    ydoethur said:

    This is why so few admirals plough the waves these days.

    Although on a serious note, shouldn't we include commodores as well when talking about admirals? There are rather a lot of them and they rank above a ship's captain.
    They could fix it all by constraining 'rank inflation'. The Captain of QNLZ is a Rear Admiral for fuck's sake. I feel justified in militating for this now that my largely meaningless OF-4 promotion is under my belt.
  • I mean she's not high-functioning. One of the features of a high-functioning individual is, though they are neurologically incapable of *understanding* human behaviour, they at least have learned how to fake competence.

    I don't think anybody would credibly accuse May of faking competence.
    Now that is fair comment
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,578
    kle4 said:

    Fantastic stuff. I bet that was a grand victory to tell tales about later in one's career.
    It gives a whole new meaning to the expression 'ice right...'
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:

    Mrs Bezos may soon prove to be the first person who has managed to bleed Amazon once her divorce gets under way
    If I were him I'd just pay to have her 'taken care of'.

    "Make it look like an accident. And please, I don't want her to suffer... much."
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited January 2019

    Everyone wants the responsibility out of their hands. That's the problem.
    Except May, who's too unable to read human behaviour to realize that everyone else is boxing her in to take 100% of the blame.

    She still thinks the game is "deliver the best deal for Britain" rather than the actual game which is "no deal Chaos, May blamed".
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,923
    FF43 said:

    But that won't be the trade off. So you exit to No Deal. Now what? It's the catastrophe that makes No Deal so bad for the Party (and incidentally for the country)
    Well, if the Tories thought it would be a catastrophe that would be another strong reason for them not to do it - because they'd get the blame.

    But the point I'm making is that if they just thought it would be damaging to the country but not catastrophic, then they might think that was preferable to splitting the party.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,326
    ydoethur said:

    I only know of one direct pitched battle between cavalry and a navy.

    The cavalry won.

    Mind you, I think the weather had something to do with it...

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capture_of_the_Dutch_fleet_at_Den_Helder
    The US Navy has an Army (the Marines) which in turn has its own Air Force (the USMCA)
    So the USMCA is the Navy's Army's Air Force.

    This is only matched by the planes that fly off a Chinese aircraft carrier. Which is the People's Liberation Army Navy Airforce.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Theresa May leaves diplomats in 'disbelief' after presenting EU leaders with unchanged Brexit demands"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/18/theresa-may-leaves-diplomats-disbelief-presenting-eu-leaders/
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    HYUFD said:


    Indeed and Parliament is about to take control

    You've been fairly quiet this week. Hope all is well.

    If you wouldn't mind indulging me on a cold Friday night, first question - do you think an election at this time desirable or beneficial or necessary?

    Second question - the Prime Minister has always stood four square opposed to a second referendum, do you support this or would you like to see the WA put to the people in a referendum?

    Third question (to win absolutely nothing at all) - should Leaving without a Deal be on the ballot paper and how do you think elements of the Conservative Party will react if it is not?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,609
    edited January 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Somebody should have told Vote Leave that three years ago.
    Fair call, however repeating an error doesn't make things better. Perhaps parliament will manage to have a plan, I hope so, but people parroting a line about 'taking back control' because it throws a Leave line back in leave's face is not initself a sign that anything positive will come of it. It's like if people throw the 'Brexit means Brexit' line back in May's face to counter their own vague unicorn ideals with her previous vague unicorn statements. It was stupid when she said it, and it'd be stupid if anyone else says it.

    And yes, I have said it myself.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    AndyJS said:

    "Theresa May leaves diplomats in 'disbelief' after presenting EU leaders with unchanged Brexit demands"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/18/theresa-may-leaves-diplomats-disbelief-presenting-eu-leaders/

    Nope, perfectly neurotypical, sane behaviour.

    PERFECTLY FINE.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,578
    viewcode said:

    The US Navy has an Army (the Marines) which in turn has its own Air Force (the USMCA)
    So the USMCA is the Navy's Army's Air Force.

    This is only matched by the planes that fly off a Chinese aircraft carrier. Which is the People's Liberation Army Navy Airforce.
    Tell that to the Marines...
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    It's going to be No Deal, because the malfunctioning Maybot will let it happen, and the chickenshit simpletons of the Tory front bench have no idea how to turn it off.

    Surely at some point Hammond Gauke Rudd and others will resign if May continues to a no deal endgame .
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,326
    AndyJS said:

    "Theresa May leaves diplomats in 'disbelief' after presenting EU leaders with unchanged Brexit demands"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/18/theresa-may-leaves-diplomats-disbelief-presenting-eu-leaders/

    Remind me again of the definition of madness... :(
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Not sure how much comfort pity is. I pity May, I don't respect her.

    Whilst obviously a PM would prefer to be respected than pitied, it's better to have the pity than neither? Which is one thing May still has over Brown, since, even after the public had lost respect for him, they also thought he was such an unlikeable, untrustworthy person that they didn't even sympathise with him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141
    kle4 said:

    What do they intend to do with it? Control without a plan won't be control at all.
    Vote for the only thing there probably is a majority for in Parliament now, a Remain v Deal referendum
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,609
    edited January 2019
    AndyJS said:

    "Theresa May leaves diplomats in 'disbelief' after presenting EU leaders with unchanged Brexit demands"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/18/theresa-may-leaves-diplomats-disbelief-presenting-eu-leaders/

    Already noted. There's nothing unbelievable about it, nor even unreasonable. She's told them and everyone before she could not deliver without certain things, which the EU won't give, and she isn't lying or bluffing about that, the parliamentary vote proves that. They've no reason to change their minds now, but May cannot give more to the EU or ask for less without losing loads more votes, so as stupid as repeating the demands are they cannot be a surprise to any diplomat, on any side, who is keeping up with the political situation.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Yorkcity said:

    Surely at some point Hammond Gauke Rudd and others will resign if May continues to a no deal endgame .
    You misunderstand. May truly isn't pursuing a No Deal endgame. She still believes, because she's dangerously broken, that her deal is the best deal and she can deliver it.

    On the other hand, the DUP, the ERG and Labour are pursuing a No Deal endgame. They all want to box her in, push her right to the cliff edge.

    She hasn't realised this.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,887
    Chris said:

    Well, if the Tories thought it would be a catastrophe that would be another strong reason for them not to do it - because they'd get the blame.

    But the point I'm making is that if they just thought it would be damaging to the country but not catastrophic, then they might think that was preferable to splitting the party.
    Indeed they have lost their minds. Or rather, to return to your original question, some of them have. Other Tory MPs are well aware of the looming disaster.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Why a UK general election is more likely than you think

    A snap election didn’t work out so well last time but Theresa May could find herself with little choice.

    By Charlie Cooper"

    https://www.politico.eu/article/why-a-uk-general-election-is-more-likely-than-you-think/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141
    edited January 2019

    I think those 380 or so Tories (in a 100 maj) would find it pretty difficult not to vote her Deal through if she had just won an election on the back of a promise to deliver her Deal (a manifesto all the Tories had stood on).
    Except I doubt they all would stand on that promise, many would issue their own manifestos backing No Deal as many Tory candidates issued their own manifestos in 1997 ruling out the single currency against official party policy under Major which still left the option open to join it
  • dotsdots Posts: 615

    It's going to be No Deal, because the malfunctioning Maybot will let it happen, and the chickenshit simpletons of the Tory front bench have no idea how to turn it off.

    How does she turn it off Mr Hat Trim? On her desk next to the A50 button is bright one saying revoke.
    Do you concede how hard it is politically, not just a vociferous bunch of Her MPs but party members, donors, voters supporting her party for her to hit that button?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141

    You misunderstand. May truly isn't pursuing a No Deal endgame. She still believes, because she's dangerously broken, that her deal is the best deal and she can deliver it.

    On the other hand, the DUP, the ERG and Labour are pursuing a No Deal endgame. They all want to box her in, push her right to the cliff edge.

    She hasn't realised this.
    Wrong, it is only Corbyn and Hoey and a handful of others in Labour who want No Deal, the vast majority of Labour MPs want EUref2 with a Remain option
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,609

    Nope, perfectly neurotypical, sane behaviour.

    PERFECTLY FINE.
    Parliament has chopped her legs off and you expect her to be able to sprint in two opposite directions simultaneously? That's basically what she's facing, given she loses votes whichever way she goes. She's helped get to that point, but that is the point we're at regardless, she cannot change position without knowing parliament will back it, and they cannot agree.

    Unless Labour agree to back something it's no deal. Labour would agree a GE, and many of them want a referendum too. I don't see what else is up for discussion. In the meantime, it's a holding pattern with the EU - since they've insisted they won't change anything substantive, it doesn't matter what May says to them except to confirm our eventual capitulation to remain, acceptance of the deal or telling them to bugger off.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,609
    AndyJS said:

    "Why a UK general election is more likely than you think

    A snap election didn’t work out so well last time but Theresa May could find herself with little choice.

    By Charlie Cooper"

    https://www.politico.eu/article/why-a-uk-general-election-is-more-likely-than-you-think/

    It's one of the stupidest options, so of course it is more likely than it should be.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    dots said:

    How does she turn it off Mr Hat Trim? On her desk next to the A50 button is bright one saying revoke.
    Do you concede how hard it is politically, not just a vociferous bunch of Her MPs but party members, donors, voters supporting her party for her to hit that button?
    Truth is, she doesn't. There is zero room for manoeuvre.

    * Labour will not support any deal, under ANY circumstances.
    * The ERG and the DUP will only support a deal without a backstop.
    * The EU will never agree to a deal without a backstop.

    May will sooner or later realise that circumstances and politics are determined to push her all the way to the cliff edge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,609
    HYUFD said:

    Wrong, it is only Corbyn and Hoey and a handful of others in Labour who want No Deal, the vast majority of Labour MPs want EUref2 with a Remain option
    They don't want no deal, but nor do they mind it as much as they blubber about it. They'd happily see it happen on the chance of getting a remain option. So would many Tories.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,609

    Truth is, she doesn't. There is zero room for manoeuvre.

    * Labour will not support any deal, under ANY circumstances.
    * The ERG and the DUP will only support a deal without a backstop.
    * The EU will never agree to a deal without a backstop.

    May will sooner or later realise that circumstances and politics are determined to push her all the way to the cliff edge.
    On this, at least, I think you have summed it up completely correctly.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    You misunderstand. May truly isn't pursuing a No Deal endgame. She still believes, because she's dangerously broken, that her deal is the best deal and she can deliver it.

    On the other hand, the DUP, the ERG and Labour are pursuing a No Deal endgame. They all want to box her in, push her right to the cliff edge.

    She hasn't realised this.
    Well you could be correct.
    One would hope May could see reality then eventually before it is to late.
    However I think she is past any sort of rational reasoning .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141
    edited January 2019
    stodge said:

    You've been fairly quiet this week. Hope all is well.

    If you wouldn't mind indulging me on a cold Friday night, first question - do you think an election at this time desirable or beneficial or necessary?

    Second question - the Prime Minister has always stood four square opposed to a second referendum, do you support this or would you like to see the WA put to the people in a referendum?

    Third question (to win absolutely nothing at all) - should Leaving without a Deal be on the ballot paper and how do you think elements of the Conservative Party will react if it is not?
    Been busy at work and my father is having surgery next week to remove a tumour in his bowel so have not had a great deal of time to post with other things going on (and may have lost my permission anyway for a time) but have been lurking from time to time.

    On your first question no I do not think an election is desirable and personally I backed May's Deal but think it will have to be put to the people now in a referendum given there is no majority in Parliament for any 1 option but may be for a Remain v Deal ballot. I would be happy with having No Deal on the ballot but Parliament would not, if we do get a Remain v Deal referendum it will be Labour, LD, SNP MPs and say 50 Tory MPs (Remainers and a few ex Deal switchers) who will pass it, most Tory MPs will vote against
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    They don't want no deal, but nor do they mind it as much as they blubber about it. They'd happily see it happen on the chance of getting a remain option. So would many Tories.
    Labour don't want No Deal, they want to destroy the Tories. All they need to do is push May all the way to the cliff edge. If we get to there May will have only two choices:

    1. Revoke - Tory party fractures in civil war, Labour wins
    2. Crash out with May at the wheel - Tories get the blame for economic chaos, Labour wins.

    Labour do not want No Deal, but it is in their strong interests to do nothing that stops May from marching ever closer.
  • Except May, who's too unable to read human behaviour to realize that everyone else is boxing her in to take 100% of the blame.

    She still thinks the game is "deliver the best deal for Britain" rather than the actual game which is "no deal Chaos, May blamed".
    But May can simply turn it on the Remainers and say "if you wanted to avoid No Deal, you should have voted for my deal".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141
    kle4 said:

    They don't want no deal, but nor do they mind it as much as they blubber about it. They'd happily see it happen on the chance of getting a remain option. So would many Tories.
    They might vote for a Remain v No Deal referendum but would prefer Remain v Deal
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    dots said:

    How does she turn it off Mr Hat Trim? On her desk next to the A50 button is bright one saying revoke.
    Do you concede how hard it is politically, not just a vociferous bunch of Her MPs but party members, donors, voters supporting her party for her to hit that button?
    Easily enough - if she put the National Interest ahead of her Party. She says nothing, writes a letter to Brussels revoking A50 and sends it off via courier. When it is safely there, she goes quietly to the Dispatch Box and announces an immediate free vote - back A50 revocation or the cliff-edge.

    It is a binary choice. The choice that was always on offer. Stay or Go - no ifs, no frills, no buts.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    HYUFD said:

    Vote for the only thing there probably is a majority for in Parliament now, a Remain v Deal referendum
    Is there a majority for that ? Neither front bench is keen.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,681
    HYUFD said:



    Been busy at work and my father is having surgery next week to remove a tumour in his bowel so have not had a great deal of time to post with other things going on (and may have lost my permission anyway for a time) but have been lurking from time to time.

    So sorry to hear that - I hope the operation goes well.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited January 2019


    But May can simply turn it on the Remainers and say "if you wanted to avoid No Deal, you should have voted for my deal".

    She could, if she wanted to be laughed at I guess. It was barely convincing as an argument before the deal was monstered by Parliament and opinion polls on a truly galactic scale.

    I suppose you could say the argument was "retro kitsch" or something.

    Be under no illusions, if we go over the cliff edge with May at the wheel, the Tories are finished for a looooong time.

    Corbyn knows this, of course. Hence his actions.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    What a bad week. May drove us down a cul de sac. She has no reverse gear, no steering wheel. Meanwhile Corbyn, who could push us out of the mess rammed us into a brick wall and started kicking the car. Any other potential route out is immediately closed down.
  • Labour don't want No Deal, they want to destroy the Tories. All they need to do is push May all the way to the cliff edge. If we get to there May will have only two choices:

    1. Revoke - Tory party fractures in civil war, Labour wins
    2. Crash out with May at the wheel - Tories get the blame for economic chaos, Labour wins.

    Labour do not want No Deal, but it is in their strong interests to do nothing that stops May from marching ever closer.
    Note that in this strategy there is not the slightest consideration for what might be best for the country as a whole - or even certain classes within it, such as the working class for example.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,872
    Pulpstar said:

    Is there a majority for that ? Neither front bench is keen.
    "Things don't happen just because Prime Ministers are very keen on them! Neville Chamberlain was very keen on peace."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141

    Labour don't want No Deal, they want to destroy the Tories. All they need to do is push May all the way to the cliff edge. If we get to there May will have only two choices:

    1. Revoke - Tory party fractures in civil war, Labour wins
    2. Crash out with May at the wheel - Tories get the blame for economic chaos, Labour wins.

    Labour do not want No Deal, but it is in their strong interests to do nothing that stops May from marching ever closer.
    1. The Tory Party will never revoke, neither I expect will Corbyn, if we Remain it will only be through EUref2.

    2. If Corbyn has not committed to back EUref2 and we crash out with No Deal then the LDs or a new centrist party could benefit from any Tory defections, not Labour
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,609
    HYUFD said:

    They might vote for a Remain v No Deal referendum but would prefer Remain v Deal
    I agree. My point was there's no guarantee they will get any referendum and in seeking one to the end they might cause the no deal they falsely claim they will not permit.

    Now, I do actually think they have enough allies across the House to get a referendum, but they clearly are prepared to see no deal happen in the attempt, even if unsuccessful. They don't fear it as they say they do. Indeed, politically Labour might gain from it, and the idea that is not in some of their minds would not hold up, any more than the idea it is not firmly in many Tory minds.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2019
    kle4 said:

    It's one of the stupidest options, so of course it is more likely than it should be.
    I can't see how a general election can result in anything positive before 29th March, no matter who wins. Not enough time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141

    So sorry to hear that - I hope the operation goes well.
    Thanks, operation is on Monday so will keep my fingers crossed and will be going to see him later in the week provided all goes to plan. The consultant seems to think they got it reasonably early which is something but of course you never really know
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,609
    Jonathan said:

    What a bad week. May drove us down a cul de sac. She has no reverse gear, no steering wheel. Meanwhile Corbyn, who could push us out of the mess rammed us into a brick wall and started kicking the car. Any other potential route out is immediately closed down.

    Yep. Monday looks like being a laughing stock, or a horror show, and no one is showing any sign of coming down off the ledge (oh, by the way the cul de sac is on the edge of a cliff as well). There's been this assumption all along that they won't really let it happen like that, but the politics is closing off the options, and the sides appear to be getting more unreasonable, not less. No one is breaking first. It makes me sick.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,647
    edited January 2019

    Easily enough - if she put the National Interest ahead of her Party. She says nothing, writes a letter to Brussels revoking A50 and sends it off via courier. When it is safely there, she goes quietly to the Dispatch Box and announces an immediate free vote - back A50 revocation or the cliff-edge.

    It is a binary choice. The choice that was always on offer. Stay or Go - no ifs, no frills, no buts.
    But an absence of concern for the interests of the country is the one thing she has in common with the Leader of the Opposition.

    We wouldn't be in this effing mess if our politicians were in the habit of putting the country's interests ahead of the Party's.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,681
    Chris said:

    Perhaps the best we can hope for now is that May will carry on making the noises she thinks will keep the Tory party in one piece, but will acquiesce in the House of Commons taking the responsibility out of her hands.
    Yes. Personally I don't think it's in our interest for the EU to agree to an extension otherwise, since we all know what will happen: TM will spin things out until the new deadline, and we'll have had some more months of uncertainty and achieved nothing further.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141
    Pulpstar said:

    Is there a majority for that ? Neither front bench is keen.
    It will be backbenchers who vote for it using the Grieve amendment
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    AndyJS said:

    "Why a UK general election is more likely than you think

    A snap election didn’t work out so well last time but Theresa May could find herself with little choice.

    By Charlie Cooper"

    https://www.politico.eu/article/why-a-uk-general-election-is-more-likely-than-you-think/

    I will be surprised if we have an election before May 2nd this year - same day as Local Elections.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:

    1. The Tory Party will never revoke, neither I expect will Corbyn, if we Remain it will only be through EUref2.

    2. If Corbyn has not committed to back EUref2 and we crash out with No Deal then the LDs or a new centrist party could benefit from any Tory defections, not Labour
    This is my point, of course. Corbyn doesn't care about remain or no deal. He seems totally uninterested in Brexit as anything other than a means to an end.

    As an old Trot, what he REALLY cares about is laying waste to the Tories. *If* he can force May all the way to the cliff edge, every possible decision from there leads to disaster for them.

    We should be surprised not in the least that Corbyn is trying to push May to the cliff edge, for that is where the best interests of himself and his party lie.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,887
    HYUFD said:

    Thanks, operation is on Monday so will keep my fingers crossed and will be going to see him later in the week provided all goes to plan. The consultant seems to think they got it reasonably early which is something but of course you never really know
    Good luck. Hope all goes well.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Jonathan said:

    What a bad week. May drove us down a cul de sac. She has no reverse gear, no steering wheel. Meanwhile Corbyn, who could push us out of the mess rammed us into a brick wall and started kicking the car. Any other potential route out is immediately closed down.

    Grieve/Bercow/Boles will betray the people rescue sterling...
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:


    I agree. My point was there's no guarantee they will get any referendum and in seeking one to the end they might cause the no deal they falsely claim they will not permit.

    What reason does Corbyn have for backing a referendum? What does it gain him?

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Thanks, operation is on Monday so will keep my fingers crossed and will be going to see him later in the week provided all goes to plan. The consultant seems to think they got it reasonably early which is something but of course you never really know
    Good luck with that. I hope you receive good news.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,609

    What reason does Corbyn have for backing a referendum? What does it gain him?
    It pleases his members, and he can say it is a free vote and lay low like the last one, while watching the Tories blow themselves apart.

    But his seeming (and surprising) reticence is one reason why risking no deal in pursuit of remain (sorry, a referendum) is a genuine thing, and why MPs who want one but cry about no deal are being phoney. They wouldn't do anything to stop it, they are content to see it happen rather than vote for the deal for instance, and fair enough if that is what they want, but they won;t convince me they truly think no deal is a disaster therefore.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141
    kle4 said:

    I agree. My point was there's no guarantee they will get any referendum and in seeking one to the end they might cause the no deal they falsely claim they will not permit.

    Now, I do actually think they have enough allies across the House to get a referendum, but they clearly are prepared to see no deal happen in the attempt, even if unsuccessful. They don't fear it as they say they do. Indeed, politically Labour might gain from it, and the idea that is not in some of their minds would not hold up, any more than the idea it is not firmly in many Tory minds.
    I think most MPs who back a referendum, certainly on the Labour side, back the People's Vote argument that it should be Deal v Remain but of course until we get to the vote we will not know
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    But an absence of concern for the interests of the country is the one thing she has in common with the Leader of the Opposition.

    We wouldn't be in this effing mess if our politicians were in the habit of putting the country's interests ahead of the Party's.
    Indeed. I apologise for bringing it up! :'(
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141

    This is my point, of course. Corbyn doesn't care about remain or no deal. He seems totally uninterested in Brexit as anything other than a means to an end.

    As an old Trot, what he REALLY cares about is laying waste to the Tories. *If* he can force May all the way to the cliff edge, every possible decision from there leads to disaster for them.

    We should be surprised not in the least that Corbyn is trying to push May to the cliff edge, for that is where the best interests of himself and his party lie.
    That is where Corbyn thinks his interests lie but most of his party remain committed to EUref2 with a Remain option
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141
    FF43 said:

    Good luck. Hope all goes well.
    Thanks
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    HYUFD said:


    Been busy at work and my father is having surgery next week to remove a tumour in his bowel so have not had a great deal of time to post with other things going on (and may have lost my permission anyway for a time) but have been lurking from time to time.

    Irrespective of our political differences, I wish you and especially your father well and hope the procedure has the desired outcome and your father enjoys a swift recovery.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141
    justin124 said:

    Good luck with that. I hope you receive good news.
    Thanks
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141
    stodge said:

    Irrespective of our political differences, I wish you and especially your father well and hope the procedure has the desired outcome and your father enjoys a swift recovery.
    Thankyou
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    AndyJS said:

    I can't see how a general election can result in anything positive before 29th March, no matter who wins. Not enough time.
    It is "Displacement Activity", nothing more.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    kle4 said:

    It pleases his members, and he can say it is a free vote and lay low like the last one, while watching the Tories blow themselves apart.
    Not the members he cares about. PV-ers are all Blairite traitor scum.

    Corbyn's only mildly polite concession to the irritating fungible mass of centrist FBPE fungus going on endlessly and tediously about a people's vote is that he's just ignored a second ref rather than publicly denounce what an obviously terrible, stupid idea it is.

    In any case, Corbyn's wheeze of boxing May in and pushing her closer to the cliff edge and disaster seems to be working beautifully. I see zero reason for him to change.

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,568
    edited January 2019

    What reason does Corbyn have for backing a referendum? What does it gain him?

    In a normal world, some of the route maps out of this might include a Labour leadership election. I think in current circumstances, if one were triggered, there is something in the rules linking a challenge to conference, so perhaps a bloody minded NEC would still try to schedule it for October!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,609

    Not the members he cares about. PV-ers are all Blairite traitor scum.

    Corbyn's only mildly polite concession to the irritating fungible mass of centrist FBPE fungus going on endlessly and tediously about a people's vote is that he's just ignored a second ref rather than publicly denounce what an obviously terrible, stupid idea it is.

    In any case, Corbyn's wheeze of boxing May in and pushing her closer to the cliff edge and disaster seems to be working beautifully. I see zero reason for him to change.

    He might not, hence my anger at the phoney no deal complainers.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    From Texas / New Mexico / Arizona, does Mecca line up with Trump's office in the Whitehouse?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    HYUFD said:


    That is where Corbyn thinks his interests lie but most of his party remain committed to EUref2 with a Remain option

    You know, if Labour weren't the primary beneficiary of Tory no-deal chaos I think Corbyn would be fine with that.

    Yeah, he loves the Labour movement. But he HATES Tories. And we all know hatred is the more powerful emotion.

    Playing his part in rendering the Tories unelectable for a generation, regardless of beneficiary, would allow him to retire happy.

  • HYUFD said:

    Thanks, operation is on Monday so will keep my fingers crossed and will be going to see him later in the week provided all goes to plan. The consultant seems to think they got it reasonably early which is something but of course you never really know
    All the best to you, your Father, and family

    Keep positive and do not worry about PB

    We will still be around for a long time
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pro_Rata said:

    In a normal world, some of the route maps out of this might include a Labour leadership election. I think in current circumstances, if one were triggered, there is something in the rules linking a challenge to conference, so perhaps a bloody minded NEC would still try to schedule it for October!
    Yes, Labour needs to convene a special conference to affirm the result of the electoral college vote. And the NEC controls the timetable. And the NEC is majority Momentum-slate.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited January 2019
    Previous Thread.

    Joe Biden is going to be very hard to beat if he runs. Age is NOT a factor if the last presidential round is anything to go by plus who gives a toss if he is up against an equally aged Trump? O'Rourke at this point is a name in the news and f**k all else so his position in the betting is not yet good value. He is a wait and see.

    Senior Democrats are seeking a solid and optimistic middle of the roader just as much as some 'he/she is the next Kennedy' figure. What they want to avoid is a leftist packed field and bloody primary season.

    Re: Sanders. The hierarchy will seek to bring him down. That has already started, the aim being that he doesn't even start a run.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141

    You know, if Labour weren't the primary beneficiary of Tory no-deal chaos I think Corbyn would be fine with that.

    Yeah, he loves the Labour movement. But he HATES Tories. And we all know hatred is the more powerful emotion.

    Playing his part in rendering the Tories unelectable for a generation, regardless of beneficiary, would allow him to retire happy.

    Certainly if No Deal is to be stopped it will be Labour backbenchers and Tory Remainers and the LDs and SNP doing the heavy lifting not Corbyn
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Guys, we're less than an hour away from 19th Jan. You know what that means?

    19th Jan is the day that Prof. John Curtice estimates, based on demographic trends, that the UK's leave majority will have died off from old age, gammon-related illness and general wastage.

    I feel like 19th Jan should be a public holiday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,141

    All the best to you, your Father, and family

    Keep positive and do not worry about PB

    We will still be around for a long time

    Thanks BigG
  • justin124 said:

    I will be surprised if we have an election before May 2nd this year - same day as Local Elections.
    And while you are here did you know Scottish labour has produced a media video extolling the wonder of Scotland and it's scenery using mountains from ......North Wales

    Widely panned in Scotland and laughed at here in North Wales as the Welsh media to to town over it
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,483

    Liz’s audition as a new DExEU spin doctor:

    https://twitter.com/theneweuropean/status/1086197493380104192?s=21

    I've never heard of Liz Kershaw but if she isn't a spoof she must be one of the stupidest people ever to have been asked to do a paper review.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    And while you are here did you know Scottish labour has produced a media video extolling the wonder of Scotland and it's scenery using mountains from ......North Wales

    Widely panned in Scotland and laughed at here in North Wales as the Welsh media to to town over it

    They were STUNT SCOTTISH MOUNTAINS. You just need to learn to suspend your desbelief.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Roger said:

    I've never heard of Liz Kershaw but if she isn't a spoof she must be one of the stupidest people ever to have been asked to do a paper review.
    One of the stupidest who isn't an ERG MP, you mean.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,326
    HYUFD said:

    ...Been busy at work and my father is having surgery next week to remove a tumour in his bowel...

    Just remember that we are a bunch of nutters who spend too much time talking about politics on the internet, but family is the important thing. Go look after your Dad for a while: he has a good chance and I hope he will be OK. We'll be here when you get back. Good luck.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,767
    HYUFD said:

    Been busy at work and my father is having surgery next week to remove a tumour in his bowel so have not had a great deal of time to post with other things going on (and may have lost my permission anyway for a time) but have been lurking from time to time.

    On your first question no I do not think an election is desirable and personally I backed May's Deal but think it will have to be put to the people now in a referendum given there is no majority in Parliament for any 1 option but may be for a Remain v Deal ballot. I would be happy with having No Deal on the ballot but Parliament would not, if we do get a Remain v Deal referendum it will be Labour, LD, SNP MPs and say 50 Tory MPs (Remainers and a few ex Deal switchers) who will pass it, most Tory MPs will vote against
    Hope your father's op goes well.
  • They were STUNT SCOTTISH MOUNTAINS. You just need to learn to suspend your desbelief.
    It was Tryfan, a much loved mountain 25 miles from my home
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    How to rationalise polling you disagree with 101

    image
  • Roger said:

    I've never heard of Liz Kershaw but if she isn't a spoof she must be one oe stupidest people ever to have been asked to do a paper review.
    It it answers your question she is a dedicated brexiteer and often on Sky paper reviews
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,326
    Y0kel said:

    Joe Biden is going to be very hard to beat if he runs. Age is NOT a factor if the last presidential round is anything to go by plus who gives a toss if he is up against an equally aged Trump?

    There is stacks of footage of Biden being handsy and creepy with women young and old. He was damn lucky to make it out with the Vice-Presidency and his reputation semi-intact. He would not survive scrutiny in these #MeToo times.

  • viewcode said:

    Just remember that we are a bunch of nutters who spend too much time talking about politics on the internet, but family is the important thing. Go look after your Dad for a while: he has a good chance and I hope he will be OK. We'll be here when you get back. Good luck.

    Very well said
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Yorkcity said:

    Surely at some point Hammond Gauke Rudd and others will resign if May continues to a no deal endgame .
    Nothing has changed.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,923
    Roger said:

    I've never heard of Liz Kershaw but if she isn't a spoof she must be one of the stupidest people ever to have been asked to do a paper review.
    From the report:
    "if you believe in Brexit you can say ‘isn’t it good news that means Philips believes it can still transport these bottles and warmers frictionless trade back into the UK."

    Why isn't this woman a cabinet minister?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,568
    TOPPING said:

    Hope your father's op goes well.
    Don't feel obliged to acknowledge all the best wishes individually, but I join in hoping the op and recovery go well.
This discussion has been closed.