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The field will thin out very quickly, I think.Sandpit said:
The Democrats could be about to make the same mistake the Republicans made last time - to have too many candidates and allow a couple of big personalities to dominate the early debates and set the scene for the nomination.ydoethur said:
Didn't stop Trump.Dura_Ace said:
Even though I like his politics Brown just doesn't look like a POTUS in the way that KLOBUCHAR and especially Harris do. This probably matters more than it should.Alistair said:Did I mention Sherrod Brown
https://twitter.com/fbihop/status/1085372326047232000?s=19
They need to agree on no more than half a dozen nominations, but everyone wants the job and thinks they’re in with a chance against Trump.
The Democrats don't have anything like a Trump (even if Avenatti were running, he wouldn't be in with a chance) - and if one of the field proves to be a standout performer on the hustings, that would be a positive, not a negative.0 -
Every tory has a foul blackness in their hearts. Hence their attraction to morally abhorrent phenomena like fox hunting, spending 100bn on nuclear weapons while making disabled people pay to park at hospitals and putting Chris Grayling in charge of things.Charles said:
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.0 -
The last does show a positively satanic sense of humour.Dura_Ace said:
Every tory has a foul blackness in their hearts. Hence their attraction to morally abhorrent phenomena like fox hunting, spending 100bn on nuclear weapons while making disabled people pay to park at hospitals and putting Chris Grayling in charge of things.Charles said:
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.0 -
Every tory has a foul blackness in their heartsDura_Ace said:
Every tory has a foul blackness in their hearts. Hence their attraction to morally abhorrent phenomena like fox hunting, spending 100bn on nuclear weapons while making disabled people pay to park at hospitals and putting Chris Grayling in charge of things.Charles said:
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
so not only do Tories actually have a heart, they have several of them.0 -
You have to love how that's phrased. It's so ballsy I respect it.williamglenn said:0 -
Once the VNOC has occurred, and May likely wins, it is what Corby will do next that interest me?
I think it is in his interest to offer a deal in return for some concessions and crucially a GE ?
Corby doesn't want a bloody referendum, he wants an election.
An election just after Brexit is better, so he can make the election about social matters.
And better still, the Tories will still be banging on about Europe.0 -
Whereas Labour leaders report directly to the Kremlin and their families sold us out during the war, and Labour voters are terminally stupid or have been bribed. Or so we've been told.Charles said:
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?MikeSmithson said:
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.0 -
What was I sawing yesterday about any extension not being longer than prior to the next EU election
https://twitter.com/AndrewDuffEU/status/10854518190174781440 -
The Juncker Salvini spat continues.
Jjuncker confesses to having imnposed toomuch austerity in the Euro crisis,Salvini tells him to dry his crocodile tears
https://www.lastampa.it/2019/01/16/economia/gi-le-banche-in-borsa-salvini-contro-la-bce-un-attacco-allitalia-a7TLF1ctza1h4Ldt7g3tkM/pagina.html0 -
ID was more of a Blairite thing, if I recall.Nigelb said:
Actually, the Romans wrote 4 as IIII.eek said:
But you do know them for 50, 4 and 499TheScreamingEagles said:
I can’t remember the Roman numerals for 51, 6, and 500.Nigelb said:As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum.
Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
I am LIVID.
IV is a Victorian convention, as is ID.0 -
I though it was Leave leaders that reported directly to Putin at the Kremlin, and Leave voters that are terminally stupid. And racist. Or so we've been told.DecrepitJohnL said:
Whereas Labour leaders report directly to the Kremlin and their families sold us out during the war, and Labour voters are terminally stupid or have been bribed. Or so we've been told.Charles said:
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?MikeSmithson said:
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.0 -
They just made revoke a bit more likely.eek said:What was I sawing yesterday about any extension not being longer than prior to the next EU election
https://twitter.com/AndrewDuffEU/status/10854518190174781440 -
Our parliamentarians spend there time debating Brexit, discussing why they are not debating Brexit, listening to statements on Brexit and now debating whether or not they have confidence in the government.
Nothing else.
If it wasn't for Brexit, what would they be doing all day? The government appears to be doing nothing else.0 -
I'd say the Conservatives in the UK are much better than the conservatives in many other countries. When you look at the racism, homophobia, xenophobia, anti-democracy that the right espouses in other western countries, Britain is fortunate to have the Tories.Charles said:
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?MikeSmithson said:
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.0 -
It's the way you tell 'em Charles!Charles said:
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?MikeSmithson said:
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
I love crazy obsessives but I think the Tory party have overdone it0 -
Dzień dobry, panie Morris Dancer,Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
Nothing like watching the fourth estate trying to spin out 'hard to predict' into six hours of content on 18 channels...
I think your prediction is spot on. My only problem is whether the EU will extend A50 until July (they've said that's a possibility, but needs a unanimous vote, and in one or two EU countries patience is wearing thin. This is different to the ECJ ruling that we could unilaterally withdraw A50 at any point).
The biggest tragedy in all of this (aside from the genuine levels of anxiety caused to my friends and other EU citizens living in the UK) is that another referendum is the last thing we need. Talk about picking a particularly nasty scab: personally, I want Brexit to be cancelled ASAP and get on with my comfortable middle class, pre-European life. But I also recognise the level of anti-EU support in this country.
Most remainers have no idea of the level of anti-EU sentiment that exists, and the bitterness and resentment that will overwhelm us once again. And for all the thousands that marched, many are EU citizens that will not be allowed to vote.
I would rather have No Deal and handle the economic fall-out and international humbling we'd face rather than have to go through another Referendum.0 -
For the past 2 years day to day government has ground to a halt unless disaster forces it on to the agenda (see the "migrant" crisis, windrush).,,,SandyRentool said:Our parliamentarians spend there time debating Brexit, discussing why they are not debating Brexit, listening to statements on Brexit and now debating whether or not they have confidence in the government.
Nothing else.
If it wasn't for Brexit, what would they be doing all day? The government appears to be doing nothing else.0 -
You mean the vote made it more likely? Not that a tweet by a former Lib Dem MEP made it more likely.Nigelb said:
They just made revoke a bit more likely.eek said:What was I sawing yesterday about any extension not being longer than prior to the next EU election
https://twitter.com/AndrewDuffEU/status/10854518190174781440 -
I think a bigger problem for him is his age.Dura_Ace said:
Even though I like his politics Brown just doesn't look like a POTUS in the way that KLOBUCHAR and especially Harris do. This probably matters more than it should.Alistair said:Did I mention Sherrod Brown
https://twitter.com/fbihop/status/1085372326047232000?s=19
He's not exactly old at 66, but has yet to establish himself on a national stage, and it is a crowded field with far more established veterans.
The time for a change candidate is far more likely to be someone of a newer vintage.
The generational divide on display in yesterday's Senate AG confirmation hearing is of some salience to the Democratic electorate:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/15/democratic-senators-catch-william-barr-out-criminal-justice/0 -
They still don’t understand that MPs won’t be persuaded by a political declaration, if the legal treaty remains unchanged from the current version.eek said:What was I sawing yesterday about any extension not being longer than prior to the next EU election
https://twitter.com/AndrewDuffEU/status/10854518190174781440 -
the biggest cost of Brexit has been the opportunity cost of our politicians doing next to bugger alleek said:
For the past 2 years day to day government has ground to a halt unless disaster forces it on to the agenda (see the "migrant" crisis, windrush).,,,SandyRentool said:Our parliamentarians spend there time debating Brexit, discussing why they are not debating Brexit, listening to statements on Brexit and now debating whether or not they have confidence in the government.
Nothing else.
If it wasn't for Brexit, what would they be doing all day? The government appears to be doing nothing else.
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I may have wrongly assumed that Verhofstadt was indicating this is the likely EU stance. We'll find out soon enough.Chris said:
You mean the vote made it more likely? Not that a tweet by a former Lib Dem MEP made it more likely.Nigelb said:
They just made revoke a bit more likely.eek said:What was I sawing yesterday about any extension not being longer than prior to the next EU election
https://twitter.com/AndrewDuffEU/status/10854518190174781440 -
Masterful understatement in the last sentence there Mike.
For me, May should resign today. I agreed with every word of her speech yesterday and thought it was one of her better ones but in terms of getting a consensus she is a part of the problem, not a part of the solution.
The government now actually needs to do some real work preparing for a no deal Brexit. There are a lot of things needing done including legislation to ensure that our legal system remains rational, guaranteeing the status of EU residents unilaterally and working on mini-deals to solve immediate problems. They should also, in my view, be clear that the UK will pay its obligations as set out in the WA whether we sign it or not.
The government under a new leader can try to find a way forward in the Commons but I really don't expect any success at all. The gesture, very belatedly, needs to be made, however.
If I was a Tory MP right now I would be gutted about what has happened to my party and I would be spending time trying to persuade Rory the Tory to be a candidate.0 -
Interesting dynamic. Practically every cllr I've ever come across has been pretty pragmatic about things, it must be very frustrating to have that situation.IanB2 said:
I am reminded of the coalition discussions I led on my council when we held the balance. Despite agreeing with more of Labour's objectives, they were impossible to deal with; like Burgon they simply viewed it as somehow our responsibility to vote with them and couldn't really comprehend why we would need them to address some of our priorities. And they used their tortuous internal processes to make any sort of progress difficult. Whereas the Tories, despite our greater disagreements, were able and willing to do a deal, and it stuck for the whole four year term.Charles said:
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?MikeSmithson said:
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
As you say the expectation one side must do something, must, can really mess with things. Even some very sensible people who I won't name once described lds voting for a Id in a by election on here as a betrayal, because labour hoped to win it over the Tories..0 -
The funny thing is, if she'd accepted the idea of a referendum to confirm the deal, and held it first, with the meaningful vote to follow, it might just have got through.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.0 -
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.0 -
The sort of thing easy to say but difficult to mean.bookseller said:
I would rather have ... the economic fall-out and international humbling we'd face.Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.0 -
Possibly. But the politics were such shed not have the numbers to pass a referendum on that.Chris said:
The funny thing is, if she'd accepted the idea of a referendum to confirm the deal, and held it first, with the meaningful vote to follow, it might just have got through.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.0 -
I think they do understand, they just aren't willingSandpit said:
They still don’t understand that MPs won’t be persuaded by a political declaration, if the legal treaty remains unchanged from the current version.eek said:What was I sawing yesterday about any extension not being longer than prior to the next EU election
https://twitter.com/AndrewDuffEU/status/10854518190174781440 -
The foxhunting community took the lefties seriously when Labour advocated owls for everyone. Yet to see the nation follow suit.Dura_Ace said:
Every tory has a foul blackness in their hearts. Hence their attraction to morally abhorrent phenomena like fox hunting, spending 100bn on nuclear weapons while making disabled people pay to park at hospitals and putting Chris Grayling in charge of things.Charles said:
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.0 -
Maybe, maybe not. I spent a long time in industrial relations and rarely did the union manage to get any deal through first time; it was always the 'renegotiated' deal that got through the executive and then sailed through the ballot. Sensible management negotiators kept a few things back for this final stage.kle4 said:
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.0 -
She could have done it last Feb, with the options being only to accept her deal or send her back to the drawing board.kle4 said:
Possibly. But the politics were such shed not have the numbers to pass a referendum on that.Chris said:
The funny thing is, if she'd accepted the idea of a referendum to confirm the deal, and held it first, with the meaningful vote to follow, it might just have got through.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, I do feel some sympathy for the EU in this situation. They can't go much further, and had a deal sorted out. But May's utter cackhandedness means she's agreed something the Commons just won't back.
Meanwhile, Varadkar's intention to prevent a hard border may see one imposed.
Anyway, time to check the markets for the confidence vote.0 -
I'm thinking - if she had accepted it some time ago, or even right at the start of the process - before the deal actually materialised.kle4 said:
Possibly. But the politics were such shed not have the numbers to pass a referendum on that.Chris said:
The funny thing is, if she'd accepted the idea of a referendum to confirm the deal, and held it first, with the meaningful vote to follow, it might just have got through.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.0 -
I think they understand. But not bending at all until now (not that I think they will) it has assisted in Mps getting more and more firm in their anti deal positions. Thus making it more embarrassing to pass it than delay or cancel it.Sandpit said:
They still don’t understand that MPs won’t be persuaded by a political declaration, if the legal treaty remains unchanged from the current version.eek said:What was I sawing yesterday about any extension not being longer than prior to the next EU election
https://twitter.com/AndrewDuffEU/status/1085451819017478144
It's part of the all or nothing strategy from the EU, we remain or No deal, so let's wait until the deal is dead before we hint at tweaks, that way it's too late but it looks like we were reasonable.0 -
I still don't think her party would have allowed that.Stereotomy said:
She could have done it last Feb, with the options being only to accept her deal or send her back to the drawing board.kle4 said:
Possibly. But the politics were such shed not have the numbers to pass a referendum on that.Chris said:
The funny thing is, if she'd accepted the idea of a referendum to confirm the deal, and held it first, with the meaningful vote to follow, it might just have got through.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
0 -
Even for a politician like May, who is a complete moral void, pivoting to a #peoplesvote with a straight face is going to be difficult given the amount of time she's taken a shit on the idea.Morris_Dancer said:
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
0 -
But bookseller is right on these two matters:IanB2 said:
The sort of thing easy to say but difficult to mean.bookseller said:
I would rather have ... the economic fall-out and international humbling we'd face.Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
"Most remainers have no idea of the level of anti-EU sentiment that exists, and the bitterness and resentment that will overwhelm us once again."
0 -
Sorry - you're right - Verhofstadt said the part about not beyond the Euro-elections as well as the first bit.Nigelb said:
I may have wrongly assumed that Verhofstadt was indicating this is the likely EU stance. We'll find out soon enough.Chris said:
You mean the vote made it more likely? Not that a tweet by a former Lib Dem MEP made it more likely.Nigelb said:
They just made revoke a bit more likely.eek said:What was I sawing yesterday about any extension not being longer than prior to the next EU election
https://twitter.com/AndrewDuffEU/status/10854518190174781440 -
But we arent dealing with the sensible we're dealing with politicians. Our mps just said screw you to the deal in such clear terms that nothing less than fundamental revision could make them justify changing position. The EU might have some tweaks, But its too late, it's like being worried about someone's headache after their legs were blown off.IanB2 said:
Maybe, maybe not. I spent a long time in industrial relations and rarely did the union manage to get any deal through first time; it was always the 'renegotiated' deal that got through the executive and then sailed through the ballot. Sensible management negotiators kept a few things back for this final stage.kle4 said:
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.0 -
Parliament, having promised the referendum result would be implemented, and having both major parties put it into their election manifesto, you'd expect MPs to honour their promises. But as we expected, it meant nothing.
How would a second referendum not be a clear breach of faith? Yes, MPs might say they are not mere representatives, they are far too important for that. But nearly 250 years ago there was a 'Boston tea party' on the claim … no taxation without representation. Perhaps a re-enactment in the original Boston is in order?0 -
Hmm. Betfair has 3.8 on 300-309 MPs backing the No Confidence motion. Favourite band is the one above, 310-319, at 1.47.
Commons numbers:
Con 317
DUP 10
Lab 256
SNP 35
Lib Dems 11
Plaid 4
Green 1
Independent 8
Not counted speaker/deputies, or Sinn Fein.
So a maximum non-Con/DUP turnout would be 315. But it only requires 6 to not back the motion for the 300-309 band to come off (assuming no angry blue backbenchers support it). I'm sure the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Green will all go for it. Which leaves 8 independents and 256 Labour MPs. Might the likes of Mann, Flint, Hoey, and some independents decide now is not the time for a General Election?0 -
Wouldn't get much of a write-up in the Islington Gazette.CD13 said:Parliament, having promised the referendum result would be implemented, and having both major parties put it into their election manifesto, you'd expect MPs to honour their promises. But as we expected, it meant nothing.
How would a second referendum not be a clear breach of faith? Yes, MPs might say they are not mere representatives, they are far too important for that. But nearly 250 years ago there was a 'Boston tea party' on the claim … no taxation without representation. Perhaps a re-enactment in the original Boston is in order?
When the HoC has proven itself unable to come up with a solution what do you suggest the way forward is.
Remember, what is possible, not what exists in the fantasy la-la land of Bill Cash's fevered imagination.0 -
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.kle4 said:
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.0 -
Why would MPs believe anything the EU says when they don't believe anything they say themselves?0
-
Mr. Ace, she could play it as reluctantly acquiescing to the will of the Commons.
But we'll see how things turn out.0 -
indeed. But what does go up against remain? Parliament has in essence indicated nothing but remain or unicorns is acceptable to them. They dont have the guts to just remain so will probably try for unicorns or remain by the back door e.g. let's revoke in order to figure out what we want, oh whoops we've remained.Sean_F said:
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.kle4 said:
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
0 -
You might well be right. But I remember some fairly dramatic u-turns by union negotiators during my career. It seemed that the last meeting with all the strong language and table banging was needed so they'd be satisfied they had truly won everything they could. Just as the final concessions after the executive meeting were needed to satisfy the executive that they had added something to the outcome.kle4 said:
But we arent dealing with the sensible we're dealing with politicians. Our mps just said screw you to the deal in such clear terms that nothing less than fundamental revision could make them justify changing position. The EU might have some tweaks, But its too late, it's like being worried about someone's headache after their legs were blown off.IanB2 said:
Maybe, maybe not. I spent a long time in industrial relations and rarely did the union manage to get any deal through first time; it was always the 'renegotiated' deal that got through the executive and then sailed through the ballot. Sensible management negotiators kept a few things back for this final stage.kle4 said:
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
A lot of MPs have felt excluded and powerless as Brexit has proceeded, with May keeping things secret even from her closest colleagues. In better circumstances some concessions and involvement could have won a lot of them round. It's just a shame that May isn't the leader the current situation really needs.0 -
All the 118 would have voted against, apart from Continuity Remain, along with many of the 202. And Corbyn would still have opposed it.kle4 said:
I still don't think her party would have allowed that.Stereotomy said:
She could have done it last Feb, with the options being only to accept her deal or send her back to the drawing board.kle4 said:
Possibly. But the politics were such shed not have the numbers to pass a referendum on that.Chris said:
The funny thing is, if she'd accepted the idea of a referendum to confirm the deal, and held it first, with the meaningful vote to follow, it might just have got through.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
0 -
The euro elections are a bit of an issue certainly. However, there's no chance of a referendum being in place before then.Chris said:
Sorry - you're right - Verhofstadt said the part about not beyond the Euro-elections as well as the first bit.Nigelb said:
I may have wrongly assumed that Verhofstadt was indicating this is the likely EU stance. We'll find out soon enough.Chris said:
You mean the vote made it more likely? Not that a tweet by a former Lib Dem MEP made it more likely.Nigelb said:
They just made revoke a bit more likely.eek said:What was I sawing yesterday about any extension not being longer than prior to the next EU election
https://twitter.com/AndrewDuffEU/status/1085451819017478144
So, looks like revoke is the only option. Unless somekind of EFTA /Norway deal, which noone is fully pushing...0 -
I agree that we should never have agreed to the clear bad faith of the EU in the negotiations, but we are where we are, and both sides are going to have to compromise, and quickly, if there’s to be a deal acceptable to everyone in the next few weeks.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, I do feel some sympathy for the EU in this situation. They can't go much further, and had a deal sorted out. But May's utter cackhandedness means she's agreed something the Commons just won't back.
Meanwhile, Varadkar's intention to prevent a hard border may see one imposed.
Anyway, time to check the markets for the confidence vote.
Of all the people who have screwed up, perhaps the biggest failure is that of Leo Varadkar. So is he now going to build a border, and if he isn’t then why do we need the backstop in the first place because we’re not going to build a border either.
Last odds on the VoNC were 1.03 to fail. Sounds like value to get a 3% return in 12 hours. Some of us got 1.06 last night thanks to a tip on here.
0 -
Tempted by 3.8 on 300-309 MPs supporting the motion, but decided against it. Most independents are ex-Labour, although a couple are ex-Con.0
-
Morning all,
Are Sinn Fein on the shuttle from Belfast this morning?0 -
Not according to the Eurobarometer polls it isn't.IanB2 said:
Public support for the EU across Europe is mostly at record highs. Politicians like Le Pen and the Italian 5S who used to talk about leaving the EU have tacked away from it. They are all looking at the fiasco we have brought down upon ourselves and staying well clear.Richard_Tyndall said:
Much as I disagree with the desire to destroy the EU, the idea that anti EU sentiment has dropped since the referendum.is clearly wrong. Poland, Italy and Hungary are all becoming increasingly anti EU. It may not be at the level of yet wanting to Leave but anti EU sentiment is definitely on the rise.IanB2 said:
If you listen to Farage's old speeches, that is both what they wanted and believed. They were sure that if the UK led the way, others would follow and the EU would fall away.RobD said:
I suspect they want to leave it and for it to cease to exist. They aren't mutually exclusive.williamglenn said:
You won’t even get consensus on that. To many, if the EU is still standing at the end of the process then it has gone wrong. Therefore to the extent that leaving the EU implies there will still be an EU and we will have some kind of relationship with it, it’s not Brexit.RobD said:
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.Recidivist said:The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Whereas the reality is that the mess they are making of Brexit has made the EU stronger and poured a mass of cold water over anti-EU stirrings elsewhere; the right wingers in France and Italy have gone quiet about any aspiration to be outside the EU.0 -
I agree with all of that, save that 118 Tory MP's are delighted with what they have done.DavidL said:Masterful understatement in the last sentence there Mike.
For me, May should resign today. I agreed with every word of her speech yesterday and thought it was one of her better ones but in terms of getting a consensus she is a part of the problem, not a part of the solution.
The government now actually needs to do some real work preparing for a no deal Brexit. There are a lot of things needing done including legislation to ensure that our legal system remains rational, guaranteeing the status of EU residents unilaterally and working on mini-deals to solve immediate problems. They should also, in my view, be clear that the UK will pay its obligations as set out in the WA whether we sign it or not.
The government under a new leader can try to find a way forward in the Commons but I really don't expect any success at all. The gesture, very belatedly, needs to be made, however.
If I was a Tory MP right now I would be gutted about what has happened to my party and I would be spending time trying to persuade Rory the Tory to be a candidate.0 -
One MEP has always been pushing for EFTA. He even wrote a book on the subject. Not going to happen though, as the EU would offer it only for GB not for UK.Slackbladder said:
The euro elections are a bit of an issue certainly. However, there's no chance of a referendum being in place before then.Chris said:
Sorry - you're right - Verhofstadt said the part about not beyond the Euro-elections as well as the first bit.Nigelb said:
I may have wrongly assumed that Verhofstadt was indicating this is the likely EU stance. We'll find out soon enough.Chris said:
You mean the vote made it more likely? Not that a tweet by a former Lib Dem MEP made it more likely.Nigelb said:
They just made revoke a bit more likely.eek said:What was I sawing yesterday about any extension not being longer than prior to the next EU election
https://twitter.com/AndrewDuffEU/status/1085451819017478144
So, looks like revoke is the only option. Unless somekind of EFTA /Norway deal, which noone is fully pushing...
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/10853073171287121920 -
Indies are one thing.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Betfair has 3.8 on 300-309 MPs backing the No Confidence motion. Favourite band is the one above, 310-319, at 1.47.
Commons numbers:
Con 317
DUP 10
Lab 256
SNP 35
Lib Dems 11
Plaid 4
Green 1
Independent 8
Not counted speaker/deputies, or Sinn Fein.
So a maximum non-Con/DUP turnout would be 315. But it only requires 6 to not back the motion for the 300-309 band to come off (assuming no angry blue backbenchers support it). I'm sure the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Green will all go for it. Which leaves 8 independents and 256 Labour MPs. Might the likes of Mann, Flint, Hoey, and some independents decide now is not the time for a General Election?
But If a single Lab MP votes for May in this one, then the whole explosive row will suddenly pivot and be on Labour divisions.
Plus they would be deselected by the weekend.0 -
Mr Topping,
"Remember, what is possible"
MPs were against Leave, so it's hardly surprising they show their true colours. Sorry, it's too difficult for us, you'll have to vote for what we want.
0 -
It also fails the remainer test - only anoraks know those options, and having spent 2 years saying people did not know what they were doing or what leave meant and that was unacceptable, how do they justify springing some late option the public haven't been considering for months?Slackbladder said:
The euro elections are a bit of an issue certainly. However, there's no chance of a referendum being in place before then.Chris said:
Sorry - you're right - Verhofstadt said the part about not beyond the Euro-elections as well as the first bit.Nigelb said:
I may have wrongly assumed that Verhofstadt was indicating this is the likely EU stance. We'll find out soon enough.Chris said:
You mean the vote made it more likely? Not that a tweet by a former Lib Dem MEP made it more likely.Nigelb said:
They just made revoke a bit more likely.eek said:What was I sawing yesterday about any extension not being longer than prior to the next EU election
https://twitter.com/AndrewDuffEU/status/1085451819017478144
So, looks like revoke is the only option. Unless somekind of EFTA /Norway deal, which noone is fully pushing...
0 -
That would be funny.rottenborough said:Morning all,
Are Sinn Fein on the shuttle from Belfast this morning?0 -
Nick Robinson saying the two most remarkable things about yesterday were the two groups of demonstrators outside parliament, who spent the whole day shouting at each other then both celebrated together when the deal went down. And a PM who suffered the biggest ever vote loss in parliament yet looks likely to receive its confidence later today.0
-
Cost? Seems like the biggest benefit to date for me.Alanbrooke said:
the biggest cost of Brexit has been the opportunity cost of our politicians doing next to bugger alleek said:
For the past 2 years day to day government has ground to a halt unless disaster forces it on to the agenda (see the "migrant" crisis, windrush).,,,SandyRentool said:Our parliamentarians spend there time debating Brexit, discussing why they are not debating Brexit, listening to statements on Brexit and now debating whether or not they have confidence in the government.
Nothing else.
If it wasn't for Brexit, what would they be doing all day? The government appears to be doing nothing else.
By having Brexit keep the politicians busy its prevented them meddling with other issues I agree. That's a good thing.0 -
I just can't see MPs having the courage to back revocation without a referendum for cover.Slackbladder said:
The euro elections are a bit of an issue certainly. However, there's no chance of a referendum being in place before then.Chris said:
Sorry - you're right - Verhofstadt said the part about not beyond the Euro-elections as well as the first bit.Nigelb said:
I may have wrongly assumed that Verhofstadt was indicating this is the likely EU stance. We'll find out soon enough.Chris said:
You mean the vote made it more likely? Not that a tweet by a former Lib Dem MEP made it more likely.Nigelb said:
They just made revoke a bit more likely.eek said:What was I sawing yesterday about any extension not being longer than prior to the next EU election
https://twitter.com/AndrewDuffEU/status/1085451819017478144
So, looks like revoke is the only option. Unless somekind of EFTA /Norway deal, which noone is fully pushing...0 -
A united Ireland would be within touching distance if they did it.rottenborough said:Morning all,
Are Sinn Fein on the shuttle from Belfast this morning?0 -
There is nothing you could put up against Remain a referendum.kle4 said:
indeed. But what does go up against remain? Parliament has in essence indicated nothing but remain or unicorns is acceptable to them. They dont have the guts to just remain so will probably try for unicorns or remain by the back door e.g. let's revoke in order to figure out what we want, oh whoops we've remained.Sean_F said:
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.kle4 said:
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
It would have to be Revoke Yes or No.
0 -
Mr. Borough, I don't think any Labour MP will vote for May, but they might abstain.
Mr. B2, sounds almost like the Greens and Blues ahead of the Nika rebellion.0 -
The deal was to leave. MPs or rather those that voted against the deal wanted something completely different (fall of the govt, fall of the EU, a free Scotland). See how undefined differences of opinion work out? Not all that well, usually.CD13 said:Mr Topping,
"Remember, what is possible"
MPs were against Leave, so it's hardly surprising they show their true colours. Sorry, it's too difficult for us, you'll have to vote for what we want.0 -
There’s a difference between criticising an individual such as Corbyn for his actions (whether you think that is justified or not) and condemning an entire group for a non-specific charge “enemy of decency”DecrepitJohnL said:
Whereas Labour leaders report directly to the Kremlin and their families sold us out during the war, and Labour voters are terminally stupid or have been bribed. Or so we've been told.Charles said:
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?MikeSmithson said:
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
And I don’t recall any significant Conservative (let’s say MP as a cut off because I’m sure you can find a parish councillor from Little Bighorn or somewhere) criticising Labour voters in the manner you suggest0 -
That would be an interesting way of phrasing a Remain v No-Deal choice.Sean_F said:
There is nothing you could put up against Remain a referendum.kle4 said:
indeed. But what does go up against remain? Parliament has in essence indicated nothing but remain or unicorns is acceptable to them. They dont have the guts to just remain so will probably try for unicorns or remain by the back door e.g. let's revoke in order to figure out what we want, oh whoops we've remained.Sean_F said:
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.kle4 said:
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
It would have to be Revoke Yes or No.0 -
But they'd still lose wouldn't they? So why bother?Dura_Ace said:
A united Ireland would be within touching distance if they did it.rottenborough said:Morning all,
Are Sinn Fein on the shuttle from Belfast this morning?0 -
We might get people agitating for @Richard_Tyndall's suggestion of asking what a majority of Northern Ireland wanted from all this.Philip_Thompson said:
But they'd still lose wouldn't they? So why bother?Dura_Ace said:
A united Ireland would be within touching distance if they did it.rottenborough said:Morning all,
Are Sinn Fein on the shuttle from Belfast this morning?0 -
But while I'd expect it to win that would mean no deal if it didn't. Unless all mos really are liars they cannot permit that.Sean_F said:
There is nothing you could put up against Remain a referendum.kle4 said:
indeed. But what does go up against remain? Parliament has in essence indicated nothing but remain or unicorns is acceptable to them. They dont have the guts to just remain so will probably try for unicorns or remain by the back door e.g. let's revoke in order to figure out what we want, oh whoops we've remained.Sean_F said:
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.kle4 said:
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
It would have to be Revoke Yes or No.
0 -
The MP totals add up to 642. I think you've included the deputies but not the Speaker. So you need to take two Labour MPs off the total, bringing it down to 254. The two tellers won't vote, bringing it down to 252. So assuming the Conservatives and the DUP do as expected, your maximum is 311.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Betfair has 3.8 on 300-309 MPs backing the No Confidence motion. Favourite band is the one above, 310-319, at 1.47.
Commons numbers:
Con 317
DUP 10
Lab 256
SNP 35
Lib Dems 11
Plaid 4
Green 1
Independent 8
Not counted speaker/deputies, or Sinn Fein.
So a maximum non-Con/DUP turnout would be 315. But it only requires 6 to not back the motion for the 300-309 band to come off (assuming no angry blue backbenchers support it). I'm sure the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Green will all go for it. Which leaves 8 independents and 256 Labour MPs. Might the likes of Mann, Flint, Hoey, and some independents decide now is not the time for a General Election?
MPs to think about if you're playing that game:
Frank Field
Lady Sylvia Hermon
John Woodcock
Stephen Lloyd
Paul Flynn (who is, I understand, very ill)
Personally I'd expect every other MP outside the Conservatives and the DUP to back the motion.
I'd make 300-309 favourite.0 -
Unstoppable force - "we can't POSSIBLY have Hard Deal Brexit!" - meet Immoveable Object - "Hi - I'm Hard Brexit, and I'm going nowhere....."
Of course, we could go for an extension. To kick their collision point somewhere down the road.
But only if that nice Mr. Macron says so. Without wanting our fish.
Oh, and the Greeks not wanting their Marbles back.
Oh, and....
But the Immoveable Object has really enjoyed the past month. He's getting quite comfy now.0 -
Given the DUP and currently CON look like holding together there's no risk to them in voting against the gov here. It's not like they are fans of it.AlastairMeeks said:
The MP totals add up to 642. I think you've included the deputies but not the Speaker. So you need to take two Labour MPs off the total, bringing it down to 254. The two tellers won't vote, bringing it down to 252. So assuming the Conservatives and the DUP do as expected, your maximum is 311.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Betfair has 3.8 on 300-309 MPs backing the No Confidence motion. Favourite band is the one above, 310-319, at 1.47.
Commons numbers:
Con 317
DUP 10
Lab 256
SNP 35
Lib Dems 11
Plaid 4
Green 1
Independent 8
Not counted speaker/deputies, or Sinn Fein.
So a maximum non-Con/DUP turnout would be 315. But it only requires 6 to not back the motion for the 300-309 band to come off (assuming no angry blue backbenchers support it). I'm sure the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Green will all go for it. Which leaves 8 independents and 256 Labour MPs. Might the likes of Mann, Flint, Hoey, and some independents decide now is not the time for a General Election?
MPs to think about if you're playing that game:
Frank Field
Lady Sylvia Hermon
John Woodcock
Stephen Lloyd
Paul Flynn (who is, I understand, very ill)
Personally I'd expect every other MP outside the Conservatives and the DUP to back the motion.
I'd make 300-309 favourite.0 -
Had an entertaining exchange with local angry Brexiteers on Facebook. They are demanding that our MP respect the referendum. They are also delighted that the deal was voted down (on the grounds that it didn't deliver against the referendum promise of leaving the EU).
My questions to them were two:
1. Mays deal was Brexit. We would have left the EU in March. When you claim her deal meant we wouldn't have left the EU in March what do you mean by "leave" and "EU"
2. You want our MP to deliver the referendum. You think Mays deal didn't deliver the referendum. He voted against it as you wished. Why did he vote wrong?
They seem confused...0 -
Do you think some Tories might break ranks.AlastairMeeks said:
The MP totals add up to 642. I think you've included the deputies but not the Speaker. So you need to take two Labour MPs off the total, bringing it down to 254. The two tellers won't vote, bringing it down to 252. So assuming the Conservatives and the DUP do as expected, your maximum is 311.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Betfair has 3.8 on 300-309 MPs backing the No Confidence motion. Favourite band is the one above, 310-319, at 1.47.
Commons numbers:
Con 317
DUP 10
Lab 256
SNP 35
Lib Dems 11
Plaid 4
Green 1
Independent 8
Not counted speaker/deputies, or Sinn Fein.
So a maximum non-Con/DUP turnout would be 315. But it only requires 6 to not back the motion for the 300-309 band to come off (assuming no angry blue backbenchers support it). I'm sure the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Green will all go for it. Which leaves 8 independents and 256 Labour MPs. Might the likes of Mann, Flint, Hoey, and some independents decide now is not the time for a General Election?
MPs to think about if you're playing that game:
Frank Field
Lady Sylvia Hermon
John Woodcock
Stephen Lloyd
Paul Flynn (who is, I understand, very ill)
Personally I'd expect every other MP outside the Conservatives and the DUP to back the motion.
I'd make 300-309 favourite.0 -
VONC!YBarddCwsc said:Once the VNOC has occurred
0 -
It was a semi-joke. 7 vs 10 DUP means it probably wouldn't matter.Philip_Thompson said:
But they'd still lose wouldn't they? So why bother?Dura_Ace said:
A united Ireland would be within touching distance if they did it.rottenborough said:Morning all,
Are Sinn Fein on the shuttle from Belfast this morning?
But, it is then very close and as Alastair and Morris have been debating, only takes one or two more to switch for some wild personal reason, or cock-up pairng or whatever.0 -
Not on the first try. If no deal looks like happening? Yes. Otherwise they are hypocrits.Sean_F said:
Do you think some Tories might break ranks.AlastairMeeks said:
The MP totals add up to 642. I think you've included the deputies but not the Speaker. So you need to take two Labour MPs off the total, bringing it down to 254. The two tellers won't vote, bringing it down to 252. So assuming the Conservatives and the DUP do as expected, your maximum is 311.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Betfair has 3.8 on 300-309 MPs backing the No Confidence motion. Favourite band is the one above, 310-319, at 1.47.
Commons numbers:
Con 317
DUP 10
Lab 256
SNP 35
Lib Dems 11
Plaid 4
Green 1
Independent 8
Not counted speaker/deputies, or Sinn Fein.
So a maximum non-Con/DUP turnout would be 315. But it only requires 6 to not back the motion for the 300-309 band to come off (assuming no angry blue backbenchers support it). I'm sure the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Green will all go for it. Which leaves 8 independents and 256 Labour MPs. Might the likes of Mann, Flint, Hoey, and some independents decide now is not the time for a General Election?
MPs to think about if you're playing that game:
Frank Field
Lady Sylvia Hermon
John Woodcock
Stephen Lloyd
Paul Flynn (who is, I understand, very ill)
Personally I'd expect every other MP outside the Conservatives and the DUP to back the motion.
I'd make 300-309 favourite.0 -
On the numbers. There was a very ill (during pregnancy) MP last night and the Speaker and many others were furious she was made to vote in person.
Surely that wont be allowed/made to happen tonight?0 -
John Bercow's own bus?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
No, but perhaps they should. This is a national emergency now.Sean_F said:
Do you think some Tories might break ranks.AlastairMeeks said:
The MP totals add up to 642. I think you've included the deputies but not the Speaker. So you need to take two Labour MPs off the total, bringing it down to 254. The two tellers won't vote, bringing it down to 252. So assuming the Conservatives and the DUP do as expected, your maximum is 311.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Betfair has 3.8 on 300-309 MPs backing the No Confidence motion. Favourite band is the one above, 310-319, at 1.47.
Commons numbers:
Con 317
DUP 10
Lab 256
SNP 35
Lib Dems 11
Plaid 4
Green 1
Independent 8
Not counted speaker/deputies, or Sinn Fein.
So a maximum non-Con/DUP turnout would be 315. But it only requires 6 to not back the motion for the 300-309 band to come off (assuming no angry blue backbenchers support it). I'm sure the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Green will all go for it. Which leaves 8 independents and 256 Labour MPs. Might the likes of Mann, Flint, Hoey, and some independents decide now is not the time for a General Election?
MPs to think about if you're playing that game:
Frank Field
Lady Sylvia Hermon
John Woodcock
Stephen Lloyd
Paul Flynn (who is, I understand, very ill)
Personally I'd expect every other MP outside the Conservatives and the DUP to back the motion.
I'd make 300-309 favourite.0 -
The Speaker would no doubt rule that they could vote first, swearing the oath later......rottenborough said:Morning all,
Are Sinn Fein on the shuttle from Belfast this morning?0 -
It is the most bizarre turn of events that a deal which transparently *was* Brexit is being criticised as not being Brexit.RochdalePioneers said:Had an entertaining exchange with local angry Brexiteers on Facebook. They are demanding that our MP respect the referendum. They are also delighted that the deal was voted down (on the grounds that it didn't deliver against the referendum promise of leaving the EU).
My questions to them were two:
1. Mays deal was Brexit. We would have left the EU in March. When you claim her deal meant we wouldn't have left the EU in March what do you mean by "leave" and "EU"
2. You want our MP to deliver the referendum. You think Mays deal didn't deliver the referendum. He voted against it as you wished. Why did he vote wrong?
They seem confused...
But of course you factored all this in when you voted Leave, right?0 -
It belongs to his wifesaddo said:
John Bercow's own bus?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
How many times? It is his wife's!!!saddo said:
John Bercow's own bus?TheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
She wanted to be a martyr.rottenborough said:On the numbers. There was a very ill (during pregnancy) MP last night and the Speaker and many others were furious she was made to vote in person.
Surely that wont be allowed/made to happen tonight?0 -
First!IanB2 said:
It belongs to his wifesaddo said:
John Bercow's own bus?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Mr. Meeks, hmm. Now thou hast sowed the seed of doubt in my mind.0
-
Doesn't that rather suggest the futility of Brexit ?Sean_F said:
There is nothing you could put up against Remain a referendum...kle4 said:
indeed. But what does go up against remain? Parliament has in essence indicated nothing but remain or unicorns is acceptable to them. They dont have the guts to just remain so will probably try for unicorns or remain by the back door e.g. let's revoke in order to figure out what we want, oh whoops we've remained.Sean_F said:
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.kle4 said:
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.0 -
Surely any Conservative voting no confidence in their own government could expect to be kicked out of the party?Sean_F said:
Do you think some Tories might break ranks.AlastairMeeks said:
The MP totals add up to 642. I think you've included the deputies but not the Speaker. So you need to take two Labour MPs off the total, bringing it down to 254. The two tellers won't vote, bringing it down to 252. So assuming the Conservatives and the DUP do as expected, your maximum is 311.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Betfair has 3.8 on 300-309 MPs backing the No Confidence motion. Favourite band is the one above, 310-319, at 1.47.
Commons numbers:
Con 317
DUP 10
Lab 256
SNP 35
Lib Dems 11
Plaid 4
Green 1
Independent 8
Not counted speaker/deputies, or Sinn Fein.
So a maximum non-Con/DUP turnout would be 315. But it only requires 6 to not back the motion for the 300-309 band to come off (assuming no angry blue backbenchers support it). I'm sure the SNP, Lib Dems, Plaid, and Green will all go for it. Which leaves 8 independents and 256 Labour MPs. Might the likes of Mann, Flint, Hoey, and some independents decide now is not the time for a General Election?
MPs to think about if you're playing that game:
Frank Field
Lady Sylvia Hermon
John Woodcock
Stephen Lloyd
Paul Flynn (who is, I understand, very ill)
Personally I'd expect every other MP outside the Conservatives and the DUP to back the motion.
I'd make 300-309 favourite.
They’ve been easy on the likes of Grieve and his shenanigans up until now, but voting down the government would surely be a step too far?0 -
Yes, but parliament would also overwhelmingly reject No Deal, which is the only other form of Leave that is available. It would be absurd to offer that too. Which just leaves Remain. It would be absurd to offer a referendum with only one choice.Sean_F said:
It would be absurd for Parliament to offer a public vote on something it had just overwhelmingly rejected, and would be seen (rightly) as loading the dice in favour of Remain.kle4 said:
The people will quickly abandon it now too, plenty won't want to back a loser. To even be considered again the deal needs tweaking. And if we could get that it would not have be whalloped quite so hard in the first place.IanB2 said:
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.
So where do we go from here?0 -
If there aren't any better politicians than current crop of incompetents and walking personality disorders governing us, we really are fucked.Charles said:
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?MikeSmithson said:
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
Which we probably are.0 -
Probably already been posted but very funny I thought.
https://twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/10852619720636006410 -
Thing is, you could be a politician. So could anyone here (some of course have). There are precisely zero barriers to entry to become an MP. So I really don't get why people criticise MPs. If you don't like it, get in there and sort it out!Theuniondivvie said:
If there aren't any better politicians than current crop of incompetents and walking personality disorders governing us, we really are fucked.Charles said:
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?MikeSmithson said:
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
Which we probably are.0 -
That's the Welsh spelling.Sunil_Prasannan said:
VONC!YBarddCwsc said:Once the VNOC has occurred
0 -
The hoops you'd have to jump through to reach the point where you had a reasonable chance would put most sensible people off.TOPPING said:
Thing is, you could be a politician. So could anyone here (some of course have). There are precisely zero barriers to entry to become an MP. So I really don't get why people criticise MPs. If you don't like it, get in there and sort it out!Theuniondivvie said:
If there aren't any better politicians than current crop of incompetents and walking personality disorders governing us, we really are fucked.Charles said:
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?MikeSmithson said:
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
Which we probably are.0
