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I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.rcs1000 said:
It is worth noting, though, that (1) the parliament isn't involved in the extension process, and (2) the EU27 reaches unanimous agreement on 1,000s of things every week. If 26 countries want a two month extension, and there's a single holdout, then there would be enormous pressure brought to bear on them.Sandpit said:
Add to that, that the extension of A50 is not the UK’s prerogative, and relies on unanimous approval from the EU27. Also that the EU Parliament is dissolved on 23rd April for the elections, not sitting until 2nd July.SunnyJim said:
Is the 'we' extending A50 the government, the opposition or a random backbencher?Yellow_Submarine said:
To avoid no deal the minimum we need to do is to *extend* A50. Requesting an extension is currently a perogative power but as we have seen recently with Humble Addresses, Contempt of Parliament, rejecting draft International Treaties and Government Business motions the Commons are flexing their muscles. The question is whether there is the *will* to extend rather than no deal. If there is the mechanics will be sorted out.
If only May has the authority to extend/revoke A50 then I do not see how parliament can force the government to bend to its will if it doesn't so wish.
It seems to me that there is an awful lot of hopeful conjecture and supposition dressed as fact at the moment.
I think that getting an extension through to the date of the EP elections would actually be relatively easy. From the point of view of the EC, it's about EUR2bn in revenues for... errr... nothing. Beyond that, it's a lot more complicated. They too want closure.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.0 -
Faragist Nukip would struggle to do better than 2014. They're more likely to lose MEPs, and the story of the election would be the success of an ad hoc pro-EU alliance.asjohnstone said:
The problem with this approach is the European elections would see massive votes for whatever Frangest nukip appears. They won the 2014 elections, with a stab in the back mantra they'd do so again, the Tory vote would collapse.williamglenn said:
There's something to be said for a long extension without closure. It pushes the cliff edge back without changing the UK's strategic options one bit, and the European elections will provide an opportunity to further deflate the 2016 mandate. Populists in the UK could even do a lot worse than in other major countries.rcs1000 said:I think that getting an extension through to the date of the EP elections would actually be relatively easy. From the point of view of the EC, it's about EUR2bn in revenues for... errr... nothing. Beyond that, it's a lot more complicated. They too want closure.
It's be sold as a mandate for no deal0 -
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.0 -
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!0 -
May winning the VONC looks odds on though, doesn't it?Gardenwalker said:
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!0 -
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):Gardenwalker said:
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5%
EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95%
EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?0 -
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.edmundintokyo said:
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):Gardenwalker said:
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5%
EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95%
EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?0 -
Wouldn't there be an extension in the event of a general election?AlastairMeeks said:
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.edmundintokyo said:
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):Gardenwalker said:
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5%
EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95%
EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?0 -
Perhaps. Who gets to ask?RobD said:
Wouldn't there be an extension in the event of a general election?AlastairMeeks said:
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.edmundintokyo said:
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):Gardenwalker said:
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5%
EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95%
EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?0 -
Yes, you are right.edmundintokyo said:
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):Gardenwalker said:
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5%
EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95%
EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
It just strikes me that at this stage both Brexit and non-Brexit looked filled with known unknowns and assumptions.
Yes, she will win VONC.
Then, seek to cobble together something - anything - that can pass for “Brexit”.
Is it my own jet lag or do I sense a kind of Brexistential weariness in the newspaper headlines? Aren’t we all so fed up now with Brexit we will be content with whatever looks easiest?0 -
Strongly disagree; differential turnout would kill them.williamglenn said:
Faragist Nukip would struggle to do better than 2014. They're more likely to lose MEPs, and the story of the election would be the success of an ad hoc pro-EU alliance.asjohnstone said:
The problem with this approach is the European elections would see massive votes for whatever Frangest nukip appears. They won the 2014 elections, with a stab in the back mantra they'd do so again, the Tory vote would collapse.williamglenn said:
There's something to be said for a long extension without closure. It pushes the cliff edge back without changing the UK's strategic options one bit, and the European elections will provide an opportunity to further deflate the 2016 mandate. Populists in the UK could even do a lot worse than in other major countries.rcs1000 said:I think that getting an extension through to the date of the EP elections would actually be relatively easy. From the point of view of the EC, it's about EUR2bn in revenues for... errr... nothing. Beyond that, it's a lot more complicated. They too want closure.
It's be sold as a mandate for no deal
Also, what kind of campaign do you think Corbyn would run?0 -
The government doesn't cease to function in the event of a VONC.AlastairMeeks said:
Perhaps. Who gets to ask?RobD said:
Wouldn't there be an extension in the event of a general election?AlastairMeeks said:
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.edmundintokyo said:
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):Gardenwalker said:
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5%
EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95%
EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?0 -
Interesting. But there's still a Prime Minister during this time, no? He/she can still request an extension. Plus, even if they didn't, I think there's enough time, eg the last one was announced on April 18th then took place on June 8th, so even allowing a couple of weeks to not form a government, you should be able to squeak it in before Brexit Day, then the next guy can ask for the extension.AlastairMeeks said:
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.0 -
Like remain and Clinton.RobD said:
May winning the VONC looks odds on though, doesn't it?Gardenwalker said:
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
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True. But would it have authority to ask at this time? Edmund’s objection is better: there may still be enough time anyway.RobD said:
The government doesn't cease to function in the event of a VONC.AlastairMeeks said:
Perhaps. Who gets to ask?RobD said:
Wouldn't there be an extension in the event of a general election?AlastairMeeks said:
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.edmundintokyo said:
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):Gardenwalker said:
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5%
EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95%
EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?0 -
A belated Happy New Year to everyone.0
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I suspect it does, unless you can point me to legislation saying it doesn't.AlastairMeeks said:
True. But would it have authority to ask at this time? Edmund’s objection is better: there may still be enough time anyway.0 -
According to this, she will keep buggerung on - she still thinks she can get a deal and leave on the existing schedule:Gardenwalker said:
Yes, you are right.edmundintokyo said:
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):Gardenwalker said:
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5%
EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95%
EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
It just strikes me that at this stage both Brexit and non-Brexit looked filled with known unknowns and assumptions.
Yes, she will win VONC.
Then, seek to cobble together something - anything - that can pass for “Brexit”.
Is it my own jet lag or do I sense a kind of Brexistential weariness in the newspaper headlines? Aren’t we all so fed up now with Brexit we will be content with whatever looks easiest?
https://www.politico.eu/article/british-politics-goes-over-a-cliff-theresa-may-brexit-vote/
Which seems delusional.0 -
Hasn’t happened yet for our new overlords. 5 February.old_labour said:A belated Happy New Year to everyone.
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Just watched that clip with Richard Burgon doing his bit to help a vote of no confidence fail. The man is a clueless oaf.0
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Theoretically only. What happens with a hung parliament, for example ?AlastairMeeks said:
True. But would it have authority to ask at this time? Edmund’s objection is better: there may still be enough time anyway.RobD said:
The government doesn't cease to function in the event of a VONC.AlastairMeeks said:
Perhaps. Who gets to ask?RobD said:
Wouldn't there be an extension in the event of a general election?AlastairMeeks said:
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.edmundintokyo said:
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):Gardenwalker said:
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5%
EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95%
EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
0 -
That would be an election they didn’t get to run as a Conservative in, though.AlastairMeeks said:
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.edmundintokyo said:
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):Gardenwalker said:
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5%
EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95%
EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
0 -
That sounds a worse nightmare for us.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.rcs1000 said:
It is worth noting, though, that (1) the parliament isn't involved in the extension process, and (2) the EU27 reaches unanimous agreement on 1,000s of things every week. If 26 countries want a two month extension, and there's a single holdout, then there would be enormous pressure brought to bear on them.Sandpit said:
Add to that, that the extension of A50 is not the UK’s prerogative, and relies on unanimous approval from the EU27. Also that the EU Parliament is dissolved on 23rd April for the elections, not sitting until 2nd July.SunnyJim said:
Is the 'we' extending A50 the government, the opposition or a random backbencher?Yellow_Submarine said:
To avoid no deal the minimum we need to do is to *extend* A50. Requesting an extension is currently a perogative power but as we have seen recently with Humble Addresses, Contempt of Parliament, rejecting draft International Treaties and Government Business motions the Commons are flexing their muscles. The question is whether there is the *will* to extend rather than no deal. If there is the mechanics will be sorted out.
If only May has the authority to extend/revoke A50 then I do not see how parliament can force the government to bend to its will if it doesn't so wish.
It seems to me that there is an awful lot of hopeful conjecture and supposition dressed as fact at the moment.
I think that getting an extension through to the date of the EP elections would actually be relatively easy. From the point of view of the EC, it's about EUR2bn in revenues for... errr... nothing. Beyond that, it's a lot more complicated. They too want closure.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so. .
0 -
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1085302626349142016
Burgon doing his level best to make a rainbow coalition unworkable. Well done that man.0 -
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.0 -
We all thought that about Corbyn. Wasn't true.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.0 -
Nothing would materially change in the sense of a deal being achieved and the referendum being honoured.edmundintokyo said:
It might actually be easier to get a 2-year extension than a 3-month one. At least with 2 years it feels like something might come out differently rather than just being between the same rock and the same hard place a few months down the line, and for a lot of politicians a 2-year can kick would be enough to make it someone else's problem.
Watching Grieve last night being asked if there was any form of Brexit deal he would support he came up with the scenario of the very softest of Norway type deals. And then he said he couldn't even vote for that because it was so close to remaining that we may as well remain.
The remain majority in parliament is never going to reconcile itself to leaving which is why I think a GE with a cast iron manifesto commitment on the Tory side to implement May's deal is the only way forward.
Remainer MP's who don't feel they could honour such a commitment would be perfectly entitled to stand down.
0 -
As long as Theresa May stays in power, Jeremy Corbyn doesn't have to dirty his hands with Brexit. Whilst the Labour leadership has to pretend it wants a General Election now, it is overwhelmingly to its advantage for the VoNC to fail.dr_spyn said:Just watched that clip with Richard Burgon doing his bit to help a vote of no confidence fail. The man is a clueless oaf.
Ditto the ERG. As long as May continues to dig her heels in, the clock keeps running down whilst the Remainers fight over what's best to do next. Granted things become a lot more uncomfortable for them if standing order 14 is amended and the Remainers can attempt to capture the Parliamentary timetable without having to get rid of the PM first, but in that case she would probably attempt to save the Deal by offering a referendum or (perhaps more likely) resigning in an attempt to force a GE. Then the ERG wing would still have an opportunity to leave, albeit on terms that they don't particularly like. Either way, if they stay put then the next Tory leader is very likely to be, whilst not of their faction, someone more sympathetic to them.
If the Conservative Party is going to split, it's more likely to be through the defection of some of the Remainers. Should the standing orders remain as they are, they may find that they have no choice.0 -
Morning folks.ydoethur said:
We all thought that about Corbyn. Wasn't true.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Dr Ydoethur (yes I know it's tautological!) Are you sure? He doesn't appear to actually be prepared to do what it takes.0 -
Lol @ the position that would put the ERG in.SunnyJim said:
Nothing would materially change in the sense of a deal being achieved and the referendum being honoured.edmundintokyo said:
It might actually be easier to get a 2-year extension than a 3-month one. At least with 2 years it feels like something might come out differently rather than just being between the same rock and the same hard place a few months down the line, and for a lot of politicians a 2-year can kick would be enough to make it someone else's problem.
Watching Grieve last night being asked if there was any form of Brexit deal he would support he came up with the scenario of the very softest of Norway type deals. And then he said he couldn't even vote for that because it was so close to remaining that we may as well remain.
The remain majority in parliament is never going to reconcile itself to leaving which is why I think a GE with a cast iron manifesto commitment on the Tory side to implement May's deal is the only way forward.
Remainer MP's who don't feel they could honour such a commitment would be perfectly entitled to stand down.0 -
I agree with the first two sentences.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.0 -
RobD said:
Only now becoming clear? Give over...williamglenn said:
That’s a corker.0 -
That article is gibberish. Nothing new there - as I say, nobody knows anything. Maybe not even May, although as each stage progresses it is a fancy of mine to see a mad architect controlling each step toward wherever we end up.Nigelb said:
According to this, she will keep buggerung on - she still thinks she can get a deal and leave on the existing schedule:Gardenwalker said:
Yes, you are right.edmundintokyo said:
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):Gardenwalker said:
A lot ofquickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seemskick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the elections.
The Parliament’s role is to ratify the deal, so a short extension would presumably be to allow this to happen and any necessary legislation in UK and EU to be rushed through in time, and would need to be based on substantially the same deal that’s just been comprehensively rejected by the UK Parliament.
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5%
EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95%
EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
It just strikes me that at this stage both Brexit and non-Brexit looked filled with known unknowns and assumptions.
Yes, she will win VONC.
Then, seek to cobble together something - anything - that can pass for “Brexit”.
Is it my own jet lag or do I sense a kind of Brexistential weariness in the newspaper headlines? Aren’t we all so fed up now with Brexit we will be content with whatever looks easiest?
https://www.politico.eu/article/british-politics-goes-over-a-cliff-theresa-may-brexit-vote/
Which seems delusional.
Pathetic fallacy.0 -
Swindon looks well-meaning but out of her depth. She lacks gravitas.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1085302626349142016
Burgon doing his level best to make a rainbow coalition unworkable. Well done that man.0 -
Nevertheless he would surely want to win the VONC. If it takes us to a GE, Labour has another month or two to continue to cling to its unicorn Brexit whilst trying desperately to talk about anything else. When they lose the VONC they will come under huge pressure to face the reality of the decision ahead of us.OldKingCole said:
Morning folks.ydoethur said:
We all thought that about Corbyn. Wasn't true.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Dr Ydoethur (yes I know it's tautological!) Are you sure? He doesn't appear to actually be prepared to do what it takes.0 -
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.Casino_Royale said:
I agree with the first two sentences.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.0 -
If he doesn't want power, why did he tell so many populist lies in his manifesto? Or for that matter, about his links with neo-Nazis and the Russian government?OldKingCole said:
Morning folks.ydoethur said:
We all thought that about Corbyn. Wasn't true.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Dr Ydoethur (yes I know it's tautological!) Are you sure? He doesn't appear to actually be prepared to do what it takes.
It can't be because he genuinely believed them, because not even he can be that stupid. It might be because he is a pathological liar, which he clearly is, but I don't think it was. He was nakedly angling for votes.
Therefore, it seems likely he does want power. Heaven help us all if he gets it.0 -
The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.0
-
No - because his manifesto will still commit to delivering Brexit and his own MPs will be split. Being in opposition suits him.IanB2 said:
Nevertheless he would surely want to win the VONC. If it takes us to a GE, Labour has another month or two to continue to cling to its unicorn Brexit whilst trying desperately to talk about anything else. When they lose the VONC they will come under huge pressure to face the reality of the decision ahead of us.OldKingCole said:
Morning folks.ydoethur said:
We all thought that about Corbyn. Wasn't true.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Dr Ydoethur (yes I know it's tautological!) Are you sure? He doesn't appear to actually be prepared to do what it takes.
The big danger for Corbyn is I think all parties are going to be blamed for this fiasco whatever their actual role. Labour are certainly going to suffer given their size and profile.
It includes the DUP - karma's a bitch - but may well include the SNP as well given they superficially look to be forcing No Deal to whip up a head of steam for independence.0 -
Britain can “rise from the ashes” of no deal.
https://twitter.com/bbcwalesnews/status/1085229507131424768?s=210 -
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.Recidivist said:The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
0 -
This should be an important story but isn't going to be.
Ofsted promises fairer deal for schools in tough areas
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-46881787
Once you get past the pompous verbal diarrhoea from the failure, oops, senior inspector, this is an important admission - that exam results are not a good way of measuring school attainment.
And that is a further important admission - that the exam reform the current HMCI pushed through has been a failure, because they were at least partly designed to resolve this problem.
In fact it has been a spectacular and disastrous failure, far beyond anything any government will dare admit, but it's interesting to note even so unselfaware, rude, lazy, arrogant, stupid, incompetent and dishonest a person as Spielmann has been forced into the admission.0 -
You won’t even get consensus on that. To many, if the EU is still standing at the end of the process then it has gone wrong. Therefore to the extent that “leaving the EU” implies there will still be an EU and we will have some kind of relationship with it, it’s not Brexit.RobD said:
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.Recidivist said:The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
0 -
I suspect they want to leave it and for it to cease to exist. They aren't mutually exclusive.williamglenn said:
You won’t even get consensus on that. To many, if the EU is still standing at the end of the process then it has gone wrong. Therefore to the extent that leaving the EU implies there will still be an EU and we will have some kind of relationship with it, it’s not Brexit.RobD said:
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.Recidivist said:The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
And many? I doubt that.0 -
No, not at all. I’m neither conflicted not contradicted.IanB2 said:
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.Casino_Royale said:
I agree with the first two sentences.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
There was a practical deal on the table with a future political relationship I was comfortable with. As were more intelligent Brexiteers like Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
It’s not my fault the Commons is stuffed with ideologues, opportunists and idiots.0 -
If you listen to Farage's old speeches, that is both what they wanted and believed. They were sure that if the UK led the way, others would follow and the EU would fall away.RobD said:
I suspect they want to leave it and for it to cease to exist. They aren't mutually exclusive.williamglenn said:
You won’t even get consensus on that. To many, if the EU is still standing at the end of the process then it has gone wrong. Therefore to the extent that leaving the EU implies there will still be an EU and we will have some kind of relationship with it, it’s not Brexit.RobD said:
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.Recidivist said:The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Whereas the reality is that the mess they are making of Brexit has made the EU stronger and poured a mass of cold water over anti-EU stirrings elsewhere; the right wingers in France and Italy have gone quiet about any aspiration to be outside the EU.0 -
Slightly damning from the Washington Post
https://twitter.com/elliothannon/status/10853590695132938240 -
It's also impossible to fix as how do you ensure the few people forced to take this current crop of insane exams aren't penalised...ydoethur said:This should be an important story but isn't going to be.
Ofsted promises fairer deal for schools in tough areas
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-46881787
Once you get past the pompous verbal diarrhoea from the failure, oops, senior inspector, this is an important admission - that exam results are not a good way of measuring school attainment.
And that is a further important admission - that the exam reform the current HMCI pushed through has been a failure, because they were at least partly designed to resolve this problem.
In fact it has been a spectacular and disastrous failure, far beyond anything any government will dare admit, but it's interesting to note even so unselfaware, rude, lazy, arrogant, stupid, incompetent and dishonest a person as Spielmann has been forced into the admission.0 -
A deal that cannot be sold by a government to its own backbenchers is not a tenable one.Casino_Royale said:
No, not at all. I’m neither conflicted not contradicted.IanB2 said:
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.Casino_Royale said:
I agree with the first two sentences.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
There was a practical deal on the table with a future political relationship I was comfortable with. As were more intelligent Brexiteers like Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
It’s not my fault the Commons is stuffed with ideologues, opportunists and idiots.
May will win the vonc today, and cannot be defenestrated for a year. She is incapable of the flexibility needed to come up with plan B, and has no plan B.
It is hard to see another ending apart from No Deal Brexit. The Betfair market Brexit by 29/3 market looks like good value to me. I have re-invested last nights winnings.0 -
Without reforming markschemes and thinning out the curriculum content, you can't. It will have to happen in the end given the disasters that are now piling up so thick and fast. But I don't think anyone is going to do it in the next couple of years, so I'm afraid it won't help your daughter.eek said:
It's also impossible to fix as how do you ensure the few people forced to take this current crop of insane exams aren't penalised...ydoethur said:This should be an important story but isn't going to be.
Ofsted promises fairer deal for schools in tough areas
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-46881787
Once you get past the pompous verbal diarrhoea from the failure, oops, senior inspector, this is an important admission - that exam results are not a good way of measuring school attainment.
And that is a further important admission - that the exam reform the current HMCI pushed through has been a failure, because they were at least partly designed to resolve this problem.
In fact it has been a spectacular and disastrous failure, far beyond anything any government will dare admit, but it's interesting to note even so unselfaware, rude, lazy, arrogant, stupid, incompetent and dishonest a person as Spielmann has been forced into the admission.0 -
To be fair, it was intended as a joke. I agree that if we have to Brexit, it should be done slowly and sensibly, disengaging over a long period.Casino_Royale said:
No, not at all. I’m neither conflicted not contradicted.IanB2 said:
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.Casino_Royale said:
I agree with the first two sentences.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
There was a practical deal on the table with a future political relationship I was comfortable with. As were more intelligent Brexiteers like Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
It’s not my fault the Commons is stuffed with ideologues, opportunists and idiots.
The trouble is that this is a rational solution to an emotional problem, and one that isn't politically sustainable. To spend ten years or more treading such a path, with a bunch of ultras condemning every compromise with reality on one side and with the other side pointing to every bit of damage being done as evidence that we should turn back, we are going to fall off that tightrope to one side or the other well before we reach the end.
Much as the logic points toward a slow soft Brexit as being the appropriate course, politically it seems to me that the most likely end points are either Remain or falling out. And since the latter would be immensely damaging, with only the silver lining that it would expose the Brexiter nonsense once and for all, we are surely better off remaining.0 -
The last date to call a General election for March 28th is Feb 21st - the last date for calling it on March 21st is Feb 14.edmundintokyo said:
Interesting. But there's still a Prime Minister during this time, no? He/she can still request an extension. Plus, even if they didn't, I think there's enough time, eg the last one was announced on April 18th then took place on June 8th, so even allowing a couple of weeks to not form a government, you should be able to squeak it in before Brexit Day, then the next guy can ask for the extension.AlastairMeeks said:
Anyone who wants no deal Brexit. A general election eats up all the time and this might be their last chance of getting what they want.
Were the vote to be lost today - there would be 2 weeks to try and form a government and the vote would be on March 7th / 14th depending on how much messing around is required between no Government after 14 days and it being called.0 -
I think we’ll end up with BINO or Remain and the Tories will become ungovernable.Foxy said:
A deal that cannot be sold by a government to its own backbenchers is not a tenable one.Casino_Royale said:
No, not at all. I’m neither conflicted not contradicted.IanB2 said:
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.Casino_Royale said:
I agree with the first two sentences.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
There was a practical deal on the table with a future political relationship I was comfortable with. As were more intelligent Brexiteers like Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
It’s not my fault the Commons is stuffed with ideologues, opportunists and idiots.
May will win the vonc today, and cannot be defenestrated for a year. She is incapable of the flexibility needed to come up with plan B, and has no plan B.
It is hard to see another ending apart from No Deal Brexit. The Betfair market Brexit by 29/3 market looks like good value to me. I have re-invested last nights winnings.
You should be pleased.0 -
So a large number of Conservatives, the Labour leadership and the SNP all want no deal. Fantastic, let’s get on with it!ydoethur said:
No - because his manifesto will still commit to delivering Brexit and his own MPs will be split. Being in opposition suits him.IanB2 said:
Nevertheless he would surely want to win the VONC. If it takes us to a GE, Labour has another month or two to continue to cling to its unicorn Brexit whilst trying desperately to talk about anything else. When they lose the VONC they will come under huge pressure to face the reality of the decision ahead of us.OldKingCole said:
Morning folks.ydoethur said:
We all thought that about Corbyn. Wasn't true.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Dr Ydoethur (yes I know it's tautological!) Are you sure? He doesn't appear to actually be prepared to do what it takes.
The big danger for Corbyn is I think all parties are going to be blamed for this fiasco whatever their actual role. Labour are certainly going to suffer given their size and profile.
It includes the DUP - karma's a bitch - but may well include the SNP as well given they superficially look to be forcing No Deal to whip up a head of steam for independence.0 -
0
-
I am contemplating greening up this morning because I have absolutely no idea what is going on. My suspicion is that Betfair's Brexit by 29/3 market is a proxy bet on Theresa May not resigning in the next couple of weeks but, well, your guess is as good as mine, and probably a damn sight better.Foxy said:
A deal that cannot be sold by a government to its own backbenchers is not a tenable one.Casino_Royale said:
No, not at all. I’m neither conflicted not contradicted.IanB2 said:
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.Casino_Royale said:
I agree with the first two sentences.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
There was a practical deal on the table with a future political relationship I was comfortable with. As were more intelligent Brexiteers like Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
It’s not my fault the Commons is stuffed with ideologues, opportunists and idiots.
May will win the vonc today, and cannot be defenestrated for a year. She is incapable of the flexibility needed to come up with plan B, and has no plan B.
It is hard to see another ending apart from No Deal Brexit. The Betfair market Brexit by 29/3 market looks like good value to me. I have re-invested last nights winnings.0 -
She wished to honour the result of both referendums: Scotland staying in the UK and the EU. No one can say the SNP hasn't tried.RobD said:
Only now becoming clear? Give over...williamglenn said:0 -
It will be a very important story; whether anyone takes notice of it is another matter.ydoethur said:This should be an important story but isn't going to be.
Ofsted promises fairer deal for schools in tough areas
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-46881787
Once you get past the pompous verbal diarrhoea from the failure, oops, senior inspector, this is an important admission - that exam results are not a good way of measuring school attainment.
And that is a further important admission - that the exam reform the current HMCI pushed through has been a failure, because they were at least partly designed to resolve this problem.
In fact it has been a spectacular and disastrous failure, far beyond anything any government will dare admit, but it's interesting to note even so unselfaware, rude, lazy, arrogant, stupid, incompetent and dishonest a person as Spielmann has been forced into the admission.
I’m also sceptical that this will be a genuine change in the inspection framework, as opposed to bolting a few good wishes on top of the existing one. We will see.
0 -
Even though I like his politics Brown just doesn't look like a POTUS in the way that KLOBUCHAR and especially Harris do. This probably matters more than it should.Alistair said:Did I mention Sherrod Brown
https://twitter.com/fbihop/status/1085372326047232000?s=190 -
I suspect that, like one or two other politicians, he's managed to get a ride on a tiger and doesn't know how to get off without being eaten.ydoethur said:
If he doesn't want power, why did he tell so many populist lies in his manifesto? Or for that matter, about his links with neo-Nazis and the Russian government?OldKingCole said:
Morning folks.ydoethur said:
We all thought that about Corbyn. Wasn't true.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
Dr Ydoethur (yes I know it's tautological!) Are you sure? He doesn't appear to actually be prepared to do what it takes.
It can't be because he genuinely believed them, because not even he can be that stupid. It might be because he is a pathological liar, which he clearly is, but I don't think it was. He was nakedly angling for votes.
Therefore, it seems likely he does want power. Heaven help us all if he gets it.0 -
Didn't stop Trump.Dura_Ace said:
Even though I like his politics Brown just doesn't look like a POTUS in the way that KLOBUCHAR and especially Harris do. This probably matters more than it should.Alistair said:Did I mention Sherrod Brown
https://twitter.com/fbihop/status/1085372326047232000?s=190 -
As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum.
Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.0 -
I'm still slightly in shock about the scale of last night's defeat. It was like a fantasy rerun of the Iraq vote where the opposition did it's job and MPs saw through the PMs tactics. Perhaps I've taken managing my expectations against what I want to happen too far recently. Still the sheer numerical scale of it still seems astontishing 12 hours on. Obviously I'm delighted to the extent you can be delighted by anything by this continuing catastrophe but after the last few years I'll take what scraps I can.
As for the VONC let's hope for the notional majority under the CaS deal. May deserves no more and Corbyn deserves no less. Another day of the national enema. With 2 x VoNC in May and 1 x MV ticked off the list we may slowly get somewhere.0 -
Another vote would be equally disastrous as not accepting May's plan.0
-
I can’t remember the Roman numerals for 51, 6, and 500.Nigelb said:As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum.
Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
I am LIVID.0 -
Yet there are still people out there who will not see it.Nigelb said:As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum.
Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
This is the CDXCI time of saying it.0 -
But you do know them for 50, 4 and 499TheScreamingEagles said:
I can’t remember the Roman numerals for 51, 6, and 500.Nigelb said:As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum.
Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
I am LIVID.
0 -
Macron is doing a meet the mayors tour of France, yesterday he was in Normandy and on his feet taking questions for 7 hours. While some issues remain tense he had a better reception than some expected but is also promising to reverse key pieces of legislation such as the wealth tax reforms.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/01/15/01002-20190115ARTFIG00389-le-debat-marathon-d-emmanuel-macron-avec-les-maires.php0 -
The Democrats could be about to make the same mistake the Republicans made last time - to have too many candidates and allow a couple of big personalities to dominate the early debates and set the scene for the nomination.ydoethur said:
Didn't stop Trump.Dura_Ace said:
Even though I like his politics Brown just doesn't look like a POTUS in the way that KLOBUCHAR and especially Harris do. This probably matters more than it should.Alistair said:Did I mention Sherrod Brown
https://twitter.com/fbihop/status/1085372326047232000?s=19
They need to agree on no more than half a dozen nominations, but everyone wants the job and thinks they’re in with a chance against Trump.0 -
He's so white, male and generic Dem I don't see how he could lose head to head vs Trump.Dura_Ace said:
Even though I like his politics Brown just doesn't look like a POTUS in the way that KLOBUCHAR and especially Harris do. This probably matters more than it should.Alistair said:Did I mention Sherrod Brown
https://twitter.com/fbihop/status/1085372326047232000?s=19
He secures the rust belt, isn't a woman so keeps mysoginists onside, he's a slam dunk.
Probably can't win the Primaries though.
0 -
Leave the EU is no more a prescription for action than 'go on holiday'. You won't get anywhere until you have decided if you want to go skiing or have a cruise.RobD said:
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.Recidivist said:The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
This is where the problem is. It is in the heads of the 17.4M leavers. Nowhere else. If they all agreed we'd have a way out. They don't and won't. Admit it.0 -
better than 500, 1 and 1000 !TheScreamingEagles said:
I can’t remember the Roman numerals for 51, 6, and 500.Nigelb said:As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum.
Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
I am LIVID.0 -
Much as I disagree with the desire to destroy the EU, the idea that anti EU sentiment has dropped since the referendum.is clearly wrong. Poland, Italy and Hungary are all becoming increasingly anti EU. It may not be at the level of yet wanting to Leave but anti EU sentiment is definitely on the rise.IanB2 said:
If you listen to Farage's old speeches, that is both what they wanted and believed. They were sure that if the UK led the way, others would follow and the EU would fall away.RobD said:
I suspect they want to leave it and for it to cease to exist. They aren't mutually exclusive.williamglenn said:
You won’t even get consensus on that. To many, if the EU is still standing at the end of the process then it has gone wrong. Therefore to the extent that leaving the EU implies there will still be an EU and we will have some kind of relationship with it, it’s not Brexit.RobD said:
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.Recidivist said:The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Whereas the reality is that the mess they are making of Brexit has made the EU stronger and poured a mass of cold water over anti-EU stirrings elsewhere; the right wingers in France and Italy have gone quiet about any aspiration to be outside the EU.0 -
I would be very happy with that outcome, but I cannot see May agreeing either of those, and I do not think that she will resign.Casino_Royale said:
I think we’ll end up with BINO or Remain and the Tories will become ungovernable.Foxy said:
A deal that cannot be sold by a government to its own backbenchers is not a tenable one.Casino_Royale said:
No, not at all. I’m neither conflicted not contradicted.IanB2 said:
Living a contradiction like that must be difficult.Casino_Royale said:
I agree with the first two sentences.IanB2 said:
Perhaps deep down they don't want their 'dream' to come true? And be condemned to wandering the fringes of power without a driving purpose and burning grievance in their lives.CarlottaVance said:It is hard to conclude otherwise that the ERG’s strategy has not been very smart.
That’s the trouble with absolutists - their “all or nothing” often gets them “nothing”.
And have it exposed for the damaging fantastical w*nk that it always was.
Pragmatic Brexiteers are very depressed.
There was a practical deal on the table with a future political relationship I was comfortable with. As were more intelligent Brexiteers like Michael Gove and Geoffrey Cox.
It’s not my fault the Commons is stuffed with ideologues, opportunists and idiots.
May will win the vonc today, and cannot be defenestrated for a year. She is incapable of the flexibility needed to come up with plan B, and has no plan B.
It is hard to see another ending apart from No Deal Brexit. The Betfair market Brexit by 29/3 market looks like good value to me. I have re-invested last nights winnings.
You should be pleased.
No Deal is the default, and increasingly likely by 29/3.0 -
None of the hardcore Jezzbolites give a toss about Brexit lol.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1085302626349142016
Burgon doing his level best to make a rainbow coalition unworkable. Well done that man.0 -
Anything that can be dressed up as Brexit, yes.Gardenwalker said:
Yes, you are right.edmundintokyo said:
Nobody knows but we can speculate, that's kind of the point of the site. I mean, let's do some probabilities (not bet offers):Gardenwalker said:
A lot of assumptions have started piling up: that the EU would grant an extension; that a referendum could be legislated for very quickly; that May will win the VONC.edmundintokyo said:
The word from everyone on the EU side who ever seems to have opined on this is that they won't grant an extension for continued faffing, only for something that actually changes the situation, like a referendum or a GE. I'm not sure whether that would hold in practice though - if there's an available can the EU nearly always seems to kick it.Sandpit said:
I agree that an extension to the end of the EU Parliament should be okay with everyone, but that’s only three weeks past the leave date before 2 1/2 months of recess for the
I also wonder if a short extension followed by no-deal is the worst nightmare for the EU, as there’s lots of short term issues to address, but with the Parliament dissolved no mechanism to do so.
Beyond that time period, I think the question arises in the EU as to why the extention is being requested, given it will stuff up their plans for the reallocation of seats in the Parliament and require necessary participation in the May elections.
Nobody knows nothing!
EU would grant an extension for a Remain vs Deal referendum: 99.5%
EU would grant an extension for a GE: 95%
EU would grant an extension for continued faffing: 25%
The above makes "a referendum could be legislated for very quickly" moot. Take as long as you need.
May will win the VONC: 98%? I mean, the DUP say they're voting for her, which Tories do we think are going to side with Corbyn?
It just strikes me that at this stage both Brexit and non-Brexit looked filled with known unknowns and assumptions.
Yes, she will win VONC.
Then, seek to cobble together something - anything - that can pass for “Brexit”.
Is it my own jet lag or do I sense a kind of Brexistential weariness in the newspaper headlines? Aren’t we all so fed up now with Brexit we will be content with whatever looks easiest?
I think in the broad population people would be very surprised if we turned out that we Remained. A lot assume that the politicians have been told what to do / we’ve Brexited already. Finding out that they’ve been ignored will massively increase disaffection with politics and the political class0 -
That would be Gove. The best possible argument as to why it's not only the muppets who voted against last night who need to be fired from Mr Dancer's trebuchet into Outer Space. It really is all of them.Alanbrooke said:
better than 500, 1 and 1000 !TheScreamingEagles said:
I can’t remember the Roman numerals for 51, 6, and 500.Nigelb said:As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum.
Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
I am LIVID.
Have a good morning.0 -
As the only white male candidate, he may have some novelty value, and he does also score well on the weird name factor.Alistair said:
He's so white, male and generic Dem I don't see how he could lose head to head vs Trump.Dura_Ace said:
Even though I like his politics Brown just doesn't look like a POTUS in the way that KLOBUCHAR and especially Harris do. This probably matters more than it should.Alistair said:Did I mention Sherrod Brown
https://twitter.com/fbihop/status/1085372326047232000?s=19
He secures the rust belt, isn't a woman so keeps mysoginists onside, he's a slam dunk.
Probably can't win the Primaries though.0 -
Why can't we have a ski/cruise holiday? I'm convinced we could've secured this with tougher negotiators. Travel agents simply need to find a way to get a ship up a mountain. The ball is in Thomas Cook's court on this.Recidivist said:
Leave the EU is no more a prescription for action than 'go on holiday'. You won't get anywhere until you have decided if you want to go skiing or have a cruise.RobD said:
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.Recidivist said:The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
This is where the problem is. It is in the heads of the 17.4M leavers. Nowhere else. If they all agreed we'd have a way out. They don't and won't. Admit it.0 -
Public support for the EU across Europe is mostly at record highs. Politicians like Le Pen and the Italian 5S who used to talk about leaving the EU have tacked away from it. They are all looking at the fiasco we have brought down upon ourselves and staying well clear.Richard_Tyndall said:
Much as I disagree with the desire to destroy the EU, the idea that anti EU sentiment has dropped since the referendum.is clearly wrong. Poland, Italy and Hungary are all becoming increasingly anti EU. It may not be at the level of yet wanting to Leave but anti EU sentiment is definitely on the rise.IanB2 said:
If you listen to Farage's old speeches, that is both what they wanted and believed. They were sure that if the UK led the way, others would follow and the EU would fall away.RobD said:
I suspect they want to leave it and for it to cease to exist. They aren't mutually exclusive.williamglenn said:
You won’t even get consensus on that. To many, if the EU is still standing at the end of the process then it has gone wrong. Therefore to the extent that leaving the EU implies there will still be an EU and we will have some kind of relationship with it, it’s not Brexit.RobD said:
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.Recidivist said:The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Whereas the reality is that the mess they are making of Brexit has made the EU stronger and poured a mass of cold water over anti-EU stirrings elsewhere; the right wingers in France and Italy have gone quiet about any aspiration to be outside the EU.0 -
How very anglo centricIanB2 said:
Public support for the EU across Europe is mostly at record highs. Politicians like Le Pen and the Italian 5S who used to talk about leaving the EU have tacked away from it. They are all looking at the fiasco we have brought down upon ourselves and staying well clear.Richard_Tyndall said:
Much as I disagree with the desire to destroy the EU, the idea that anti EU sentiment has dropped since the referendum.is clearly wrong. Poland, Italy and Hungary are all becoming increasingly anti EU. It may not be at the level of yet wanting to Leave but anti EU sentiment is definitely on the rise.IanB2 said:
If you listen to Farage's old speeches, that is both what they wanted and believed. They were sure that if the UK led the way, others would follow and the EU would fall away.RobD said:
I suspect they want to leave it and for it to cease to exist. They aren't mutually exclusive.williamglenn said:
You won’t even get consensus on that. To many, if the EU is still standing at the end of the process then it has gone wrong. Therefore to the extent that leaving the EU implies there will still be an EU and we will have some kind of relationship with it, it’s not Brexit.RobD said:
Simple, the purpose of Brexit is to leave the EU.Recidivist said:The problem for leavers is simple. There is no agreement on the purpose of Brexit, and consequently no consensus on what form it should take. The result is it can't be done. They should be honest and admit it so we can all get on with the important stuff.
Whereas the reality is that the mess they are making of Brexit has made the EU stronger and poured a mass of cold water over anti-EU stirrings elsewhere; the right wingers in France and Italy have gone quiet about any aspiration to be outside the EU.
most of them have little interest in our issues, they have too many domestic problems of their own.0 -
but thats their very strength, they are focussed on voter bread and butter concerns not Parliamentary shenanigansPulpstar said:
None of the hardcore Jezzbolites give a toss about Brexit lol.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1085302626349142016
Burgon doing his level best to make a rainbow coalition unworkable. Well done that man.0 -
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?MikeSmithson said:
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.0 -
That funny Welsh clip makes a point that I hadn’t considered - public support.
Assuming May’s deal is off the table, what form of Brexit do the public want? There has been no real debate or promotion of “Norway+” or Corbyn’s perma-customs Union.
Scarily, most Brexiters now probably want a No Deal.0 -
In our history, We have had the long parliament, the short parliament and now the useless parliament .0
-
Roman numerals do, I suppose, have to be taught somewhere, so people can understand old-fashioned clocks and the copyright years at the end of films, not to mention TSE's jokes. Sticking them into maths lessons is probably more a sign that Whitehall (and Westminster) are determined to control every moment of schoolchildren's days, despite the rhetoric of setting schools free.Nigelb said:As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum.
Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.0 -
Actually, the Romans wrote 4 as IIII.eek said:
But you do know them for 50, 4 and 499TheScreamingEagles said:
I can’t remember the Roman numerals for 51, 6, and 500.Nigelb said:As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum.
Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
I am LIVID.
IV is a Victorian convention, as is ID.0 -
Irish government accepts it will be introducing hard border
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html
Simon Coveney: “Yes, but we can’t get into where they’ll be at this stage. They could be in the sea, they could be... But once you start talking about checks anywhere near the border, people will start delving into that and all of a sudden we’ll be the government that reintroduced a physical border on the island of Ireland.”
Shane Ross: “Yeah, but I didn’t know what to say.”0 -
Sadly we've moved away from disagreement on policy; opponents are now demonised, everything is a matter of good versus evil; anyone who disagrees you is basically Hitler.Charles said:
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?MikeSmithson said:
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.
It's a shite state of affairs0 -
It's rather a sign of Gove attempting to recreate what he recalls of his own education and impose it on an entire nation, several decades on.DecrepitJohnL said:
Roman numerals do, I suppose, have to be taught somewhere, so people can understand old-fashioned clocks and the copyright years at the end of films, not to mention TSE's jokes. Sticking them into maths lessons is probably more a sign that Whitehall (and Westminster) are determined to control every moment of schoolchildren's days, despite the rhetoric of setting schools free.Nigelb said:As an aside, I recently realised that teaching Roman numerals is part of the primary schools *Maths* curriculum.
Gove was truly an insane Education Secretary.
Mandating the teaching of Roman numerals to primary school kids struggling with maths is an exercise in utter futility.0 -
Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.0 -
You mean Swinson. The thought of “Rachael Swindon” being in Parliament is almost as terrifying as Burgon already being in there.Gardenwalker said:
Swindon looks well-meaning but out of her depth. She lacks gravitas.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1085302626349142016
Burgon doing his level best to make a rainbow coalition unworkable. Well done that man.0 -
Going well for Leo then. When’s he up for re-election again?Alanbrooke said:
Irish government accepts it will be introducing hard border
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html
Simon Coveney: “Yes, but we can’t get into where they’ll be at this stage. They could be in the sea, they could be... But once you start talking about checks anywhere near the border, people will start delving into that and all of a sudden we’ll be the government that reintroduced a physical border on the island of Ireland.”
Shane Ross: “Yeah, but I didn’t know what to say.”0 -
I am reminded of the coalition discussions I led on my council when we held the balance. Despite agreeing with more of Labour's objectives, they were impossible to deal with; like Burgon they simply viewed it as somehow our responsibility to vote with them and couldn't really comprehend why we would need them to address some of our priorities. And they used their tortuous internal processes to make any sort of progress difficult. Whereas the Tories, despite our greater disagreements, were able and willing to do a deal, and it stuck for the whole four year term.Charles said:
The Conservatives are “the enemies of decency in this country” are they?MikeSmithson said:
This is what fucks me off about so many on the left
You may disagree with their policies but, in the main, Conservatives are normal people doing what they think is right for the country. They are neither better or worse than any other politicians.0 -
Any time soonSandpit said:
Going well for Leo then. When’s he up for re-election again?Alanbrooke said:
Irish government accepts it will be introducing hard border
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/border-checks-on-trade-to-follow-nodeal-brexit-coveney-and-ross-in-private-conversation-caught-on-tape-37716771.html
Simon Coveney: “Yes, but we can’t get into where they’ll be at this stage. They could be in the sea, they could be... But once you start talking about checks anywhere near the border, people will start delving into that and all of a sudden we’ll be the government that reintroduced a physical border on the island of Ireland.”
Shane Ross: “Yeah, but I didn’t know what to say.”
His problem is he needs Brexit put to bed before he calls it, yet has made settling Brexit problematic.
Blazing away at both feet with an AK47 by the looks of it.0 -
Despite agreeing that deal v Remain is the only realistic vote, it is hard to see the deal going to the people having been voted down twice, unless there is evidence of significant public support for it (which there isn't; the poll support is falling away).Morris_Dancer said:Guten Morgen, my fellow Europeans.
I was amused by the BBC waffle last night. Leaving aside James Landale's three minute segment during which he excitingly revealed things are a bit difficult to predict right now, Huw Edwards and Laura Kuenssberg suggesting the scale of the defeat was a shock was, er, wrong.
Sky's prediction in the morning had circa 198 voting for the deal, which was very close. Some handsome fellow or other also backed both the specific 10-seat band and the wider 50-seat band, on Betfair and Ladbrokes respectively, and I know many others here did likewise.
On predictions, here's something that might happen:
May gets a tiny tinkering with the deal.
Goes for a second vote with the threat of a referendum between her deal and Remain.
Deal loses, second referendum occurs.0 -
Mr. B2, is it?
Remainers would leap at the chance, would they not?
May gets to avoid her no deal.
The people have no say in whether a referendum occurs. If it's convenient for May and most MPs, it can happen.0
