politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters now think it is even less likely that the UK will leav
Comments
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Do you think the UK manufactures no medications at all?tyson said:
Anyone on any kind of meds for them/ loved ones/pets should be worriedBig_G_NorthWales said:
I can never embrace no deal. It horrifies meConcanvasser said:
Sadly its loyalists like us. Time to embrace No Deal and get this over with G.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are the big losers tonightMyBurningEars said:Really not convinced the ERG won today.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pharmaceutical_manufacturers_in_the_United_Kingdom0 -
Remain are easily favourites, not least since parliament isn't about to include no deal as an option. It's also less humiliating for MPs to remain than vote for the deal now, so no incentive for the EU to come to the rescue.tyson said:Hard Brexit have two bites at the cherry...running down the clock/ or a vicious second referendum when they must start as favourites....
It is no wonder they all voted against the deal0 -
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Anazina said:
Odds on Betfair currently not good enough at 11/4.Anazina said:Casino
Agreed. But I can’t find the bloody market!
I want better than that.
Thanks but only 11/4 on that.Casino_Royale said:
Betfair exchange > politics > U.K.-BrexitAnazina said:Casino
Agreed. But I can’t find the bloody market!
Too short for value IMO.0 -
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One has to bear in mind that most MPs are huge egotists.FF43 said:The lost majority didn't make any difference in the end.
https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/1085278477752905728
(And I think Tom Hamilton underestimates the majority required, assuming the extra Tory backbenchers would split in proportion to the vote against)
I can see a world where this exact same deal fell by only 345 to 280 votes (I accept there’d have always been a hardcore of 30 or so Tory rebels) just by massaging a few more egos over the last two years and bothering to do the tea room politics.0 -
It's still probably more likely than not that Brexit happens. But the eventual exit will be softer, not harder, and the chance of abandoning it has certainly risen. In these respects, the ERG nutters have certainly lost tonight.Andrew said:
Yep. Absolutely clear this has increased the chance of remain. Various routes to that end, but my guess is parliament engineers a solution that compels the PM to extend A50 if there is no deal reached, or revoke if the extension is denied. Parliament then obstructs any possible deal, the EU says sod off to an extension, and voila - the desired result, without anyone having to stick their neck out and take the flak.IanB2 said:£ is rising. The market knows what May's big loss means.
I'm not sure what the ERG'ers are celebrating - they've managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.0 -
Not only that but this deal was so rotten in part because she lost the majority and was so weak.Casino_Royale said:
One has to bear in mind that most MPs are huge egotists.FF43 said:The lost majority didn't make any difference in the end.
https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/1085278477752905728
(And I think Tom Hamilton underestimates the majority required, assuming the extra Tory backbenchers would split in proportion to the vote against)
I can see a world where this exact same deal fell by only 345 to 280 votes (I accept there’d have always been a hardcore of 30 or so Tory rebels) just by massaging a few more egos over the last two years and bothering to do the tea room politics.0 -
Indeed. Deal v Remain would be an option already rejected once by the people v an option massively rejected by Parliament.Chris said:Doesn't the scale of this defeat make it harder to envisage a referendum with this Deal as an option? And I don't see the EU agreeing an extension for a No Deal v Remain referendum.
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If Beth is correct and we somehow end up on the EFTA train then it will be a good result.Scott_P said:0 -
All those of you who think the ERG would be sad about Parliament forcing us to remain are quite wrong, by the way.
It's a pretty decent outcome for them and that's a big part of the reason they're so supremely relaxed about it.0 -
So it probably will be Deal v Remain.Sandpit said:
Indeed. Deal v Remain would be an option already rejected once by the people v an option massively rejected by Parliament.Chris said:Doesn't the scale of this defeat make it harder to envisage a referendum with this Deal as an option? And I don't see the EU agreeing an extension for a No Deal v Remain referendum.
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In any case I don't see what the difficulty would be in continuing to import pharmaceuticals on the current basis.Ishmael_Z said:
Do you think the UK manufactures no medications at all?tyson said:
Anyone on any kind of meds for them/ loved ones/pets should be worriedBig_G_NorthWales said:
I can never embrace no deal. It horrifies meConcanvasser said:
Sadly its loyalists like us. Time to embrace No Deal and get this over with G.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are the big losers tonightMyBurningEars said:Really not convinced the ERG won today.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pharmaceutical_manufacturers_in_the_United_Kingdom0 -
Someone “left” it in a DC coffee shop just to mess with you.edmundintokyo said:KLOBUCHAR RUNNING
Alternatively someone's just fucking around
https://twitter.com/maxgmarshall/status/10852778494168064000 -
Having mulled this over, I’m beginning to think May might pivot to a referendum.
1. It keeps her deal alive
2. There’s a majority for it in the House
3. If her timing is right she could beat Corbyn which would really rub his face in it
4. It’s one of the few circumstances that the EU would allow an extension for.
5. She has a ready made platform of “sending a message to Parliament”.
6. It’s conclusive. We really would either Leave or Remain following any second vote.
Against that is her no doubt honest belief that a second vote would be divisive.
But what else has she got? Norway requires another painful coalition to come together, and requires her to sacrifice her very favourite red line, control of FOM.
A permanent customs union would not be tolerable to the great majority of Tories. I don’t think she’d ever go for it.
So, my updated predictions:
Norway 30%
Referendum on her Deal 40% (Remain 50%; Leave 50%)
Jeremy’s Perma Customs Union 10%
No Deal 10%
May’s Deal 5%
Revoke 5%
As you see, I still think “Remain” is only 25%, up marginally from yesterday. No Deal is still an outside chance, but is also up slightly.0 -
supply chains comrade will be criticalIshmael_Z said:
Do you think the UK manufactures no medications at all?tyson said:
Anyone on any kind of meds for them/ loved ones/pets should be worriedBig_G_NorthWales said:
I can never embrace no deal. It horrifies meConcanvasser said:
Sadly its loyalists like us. Time to embrace No Deal and get this over with G.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are the big losers tonightMyBurningEars said:Really not convinced the ERG won today.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pharmaceutical_manufacturers_in_the_United_Kingdom
still people dying is a price worth paying to take back control so we can become poorer
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Mrs May, Lord Protector?
I'm dusting off the family pike.
For what it's worth I'm not entirely joking. Mrs May in my view is almost the only clear-thinking politician in any of this.0 -
0
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Maybe we should have a second referendum with:
Do Wish To REMAIN In The EU?
Or
Do Wish To REMAIN In The EU?
That would definitely give the elite the result they want.
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Oh it clearly went down badly in parts with the public. I meant the actual contents are not exactly the stuff of the necronomicom.GIN1138 said:0 -
Andrew’s post is quite feasible. That essentially A50 is delayed indefinitely and then nothing is agreed. So we just end up in limbo, but within the EU for the foreseeable future. One possible outcome, certainly.IanB2 said:
It's still probably more likely than not that Brexit happens. But the eventual exit will be softer, not harder, and the chance of abandoning it has certainly risen. In these respects, the ERG nutters have certainly lost tonight.Andrew said:
Yep. Absolutely clear this has increased the chance of remain. Various routes to that end, but my guess is parliament engineers a solution that compels the PM to extend A50 if there is no deal reached, or revoke if the extension is denied. Parliament then obstructs any possible deal, the EU says sod off to an extension, and voila - the desired result, without anyone having to stick their neck out and take the flak.IanB2 said:£ is rising. The market knows what May's big loss means.
I'm not sure what the ERG'ers are celebrating - they've managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.0 -
RobD said:
DeludedScott_P said:
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1085285393342390272MyBurningEars said:Really not convinced the ERG won today.
Maybe it’s in honour of Tusk, Juncker and Verhofstadht?0 -
Or that any and every medication necessary couldn’t be imported from the US or Canada if required.Ishmael_Z said:
Do you think the UK manufactures no medications at all?tyson said:
Anyone on any kind of meds for them/ loved ones/pets should be worriedBig_G_NorthWales said:
I can never embrace no deal. It horrifies meConcanvasser said:
Sadly its loyalists like us. Time to embrace No Deal and get this over with G.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are the big losers tonightMyBurningEars said:Really not convinced the ERG won today.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pharmaceutical_manufacturers_in_the_United_Kingdom0 -
It's difficult to see a way out, with the Tories so deeply divided, which makes it difficult to start again and negotiate a softer deal.kle4 said:
It was always silly for the deal to be rejected by parliament then included in a referendum. The remainers are in a bind. The deal has no credibility, but if they are being honest then they cannot countenance risking no deal by including it, so what do they include?Chris said:Doesn't the scale of this defeat make it harder to envisage a referendum with this Deal as an option? And I don't see the EU agreeing an extension for a No Deal v Remain referendum.
What they want is to just revoke, possibly under pretence of a delay.
An election would make a certain amount of sense. At least if Labour won on a Norwegian-style platform, that would offer a way out eventually. I find it quite difficult to see a way out as things are now.0 -
If “no deal is better than a bad deal” and this deal was the only way, how can May back a plan B deal. She must by her own logic go for no deal.0
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After listening to the politics professor on Sky earlier I still don't understand how remainers force an alternative course to no deal if the government don't bend to their will.
If leaving on March 29th is primary legislation...and it can only be replaced by the same...which can only be introduced by the government...then what is ACTUALLY stopping the clock running down should the government so wish?
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The only thing that seems to be stopping her doing this is sheer stubbornness about the principles of respecting the original vote, which whilst laudably principled is about the least pragmatic option for her of all her limited options.Gardenwalker said:Having mulled this over, I’m beginning to think May might pivot to a referendum.
1. It keeps her deal alive
2. There’s a majority for it in the House
3. If her timing is right she could beat Corbyn which would really rub his face in it
4. It’s one of the few circumstances that the EU would allow an extension for.
5. She has a ready made platform of “sending a message to Parliament”.
6. It’s conclusive. We really would either Leave or Remain following any second vote.
Against that is her no doubt honest belief that a second vote would be divisive.
But what else has she got? Norway requires another painful coalition to come together, and requires her to sacrifice her very favourite red line, control of FOM.
A permanent customs union would not be tolerable to the great majority of Tories. I don’t think she’d ever go for it.
So, my updated predictions:
Norway 30%
Referendum on her Deal 40% (Remain 50%; Leave 50%)
Jeremy’s Perma Customs Union 10%
No Deal 10%
May’s Deal 5%
Revoke 5%
As you see, I still think “Remain” is only 25%, up marginally from yesterday. No Deal is still an outside chance, but is also up slightly.0 -
Why would we put up any barriers to trade with the EU? We currently have 100% regulatory alignmentSandpit said:
Or that any and every medication necessary couldn’t be imported from the US or Canada if required.Ishmael_Z said:
Do you think the UK manufactures no medications at all?tyson said:
Anyone on any kind of meds for them/ loved ones/pets should be worriedBig_G_NorthWales said:
I can never embrace no deal. It horrifies meConcanvasser said:
Sadly its loyalists like us. Time to embrace No Deal and get this over with G.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They are the big losers tonightMyBurningEars said:Really not convinced the ERG won today.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pharmaceutical_manufacturers_in_the_United_Kingdom0 -
Nothing.SunnyJim said:After listening to the politics professor on Sky earlier I still don't understand how remainers force an alternative course to no deal if the government don't bend to their will.
If leaving on March 29th is primary legislation...and it can only be replaced by the same...which can only be introduced by the government...then what is ACTUALLY stopping the clock running down should the government so wish?0 -
They’ve built careers around it.grabcocque said:All those of you who think the ERG would be sad about Parliament forcing us to remain are quite wrong, by the way.
It's a pretty decent outcome for them and that's a big part of the reason they're so supremely relaxed about it.
Why would they want it to end?0 -
If you were Jared O’Mara, Fiona Onyasana or John Woodcock, would you vote for an election next month?MikeL said:Betfair has a market on VONC numbers.
Total possible vote = 635 (634 voted today).
Govt Notional maj = 13 so if it goes 100% on party lines the result would be:
Yes 311, No 324.
If Govt gets Lady Hermon, it's Yes 310, No 325.
If Flynn is absent (was he the MP absent today?) then Yes get 309.
Makes the Betfair market interesting - 310-319 is favourite but if Flynn can't make it then that band could well lose. And that assumes all Independent Lab vote Yes.0 -
[Deleted]-1
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Brexit increasingly reminds me of the Wicker Man.0
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But the Tory ultras condemned it first and read if afterwards, if at all. The paranoia about the EU actually wanting us in the backstop indefinitely was always nonsense from the start.kle4 said:
Oh it clearly went down badly in parts with the public. I meant the actual contents are not exactly the stuff of the necronomicom.GIN1138 said:0 -
Also she wins either way:Gardenwalker said:Having mulled this over, I’m beginning to think May might pivot to a referendum.
1. It keeps her deal alive
2. There’s a majority for it in the House
3. If her timing is right she could beat Corbyn which would really rub his face in it
4. It’s one of the few circumstances that the EU would allow an extension for.
5. She has a ready made platform of “sending a message to Parliament”.
6. It’s conclusive. We really would either Leave or Remain following any second vote.
Against that is her no doubt honest belief that a second vote would be divisive.
But what else has she got? Norway requires another painful coalition to come together, and requires her to sacrifice her very favourite red line, control of FOM.
A permanent customs union would not be tolerable to the great majority of Tories. I don’t think she’d ever go for it.
So, my updated predictions:
Norway 30%
Referendum on her Deal 40% (Remain 50%; Leave 50%)
Jeremy’s Perma Customs Union 10%
No Deal 10%
May’s Deal 5%
Revoke 5%
As you see, I still think “Remain” is only 25%, up marginally from yesterday. No Deal is still an outside chance, but is also up slightly.
1) Her deal wins, she is VINDICATED BY THE PEOPLE
2) Remain wins, she loses, but her enemies lose more0 -
Former Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto accepted a $100m (£77m) bribe from drug cartel kingpin Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, a witness has testified.
According to reporters in the Brooklyn courthouse, Mr Pena Nieto had requested $250m before settling on $100m.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-468724140 -
I'm sure you accused me of being mad for saying much the same thing a couple of years ago.Casino_Royale said:
They’ve built careers around it.grabcocque said:All those of you who think the ERG would be sad about Parliament forcing us to remain are quite wrong, by the way.
It's a pretty decent outcome for them and that's a big part of the reason they're so supremely relaxed about it.
Why would they want it to end?0 -
Don't they get a payoff if they are defeated, as long as they stand?Sandpit said:
If you were Jared O’Mara, Fiona Onyasana or John Woodcock, would you vote for an election next month?MikeL said:Betfair has a market on VONC numbers.
Total possible vote = 635 (634 voted today).
Govt Notional maj = 13 so if it goes 100% on party lines the result would be:
Yes 311, No 324.
If Govt gets Lady Hermon, it's Yes 310, No 325.
If Flynn is absent (was he the MP absent today?) then Yes get 309.
Makes the Betfair market interesting - 310-319 is favourite but if Flynn can't make it then that band could well lose. And that assumes all Independent Lab vote Yes.0 -
Hammond needs to start spending some on that £39bn on serious no-deal planning.Scott_P said:0 -
She didn't mean what she said about no deal. Simple as. One of the few who does genuinely fear no deal, unlike the new deal unicorn fans and remainers prepared to see no deal if they fail.Jonathan said:If “no deal is better than a bad deal” and this deal was the only way, how can May back a plan B deal. She must by her own logic go for no deal.
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Indeed!williamglenn said:
I'm sure you accused me of being mad for saying much the same thing a couple of years ago.Casino_Royale said:
They’ve built careers around it.grabcocque said:All those of you who think the ERG would be sad about Parliament forcing us to remain are quite wrong, by the way.
It's a pretty decent outcome for them and that's a big part of the reason they're so supremely relaxed about it.
Why would they want it to end?0 -
So you're saying he's not a good choice to take over our negotiations for us?FrancisUrquhart said:
According to reporters in the Brooklyn courthouse, Mr Pena Nieto had requested $250m before settling on $100m.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-468724140 -
Join the Euro and leave the EU. Kills exchange risk, intrastat reporting and fannying around with boxes on the VAT return. What's not to like ?Anazina said:
Remain in the EU but outside the EuroGIN1138 said:Maybe we should have a second referendum with:
Do Wish To REMAIN In The EU?
Or
Do Wish To REMAIN In The EU?
That would definitely give the elite the result they want.
Or
Remain in the EU and inside the Euro
would be more fun
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The idea seems to be that Theresa won't allow No Deal?SunnyJim said:After listening to the politics professor on Sky earlier I still don't understand how remainers force an alternative course to no deal if the government don't bend to their will.
If leaving on March 29th is primary legislation...and it can only be replaced by the same...which can only be introduced by the government...then what is ACTUALLY stopping the clock running down should the government so wish?0 -
Something like that.kle4 said:
So you're saying he's not a good choice to take over our negotiations for us?FrancisUrquhart said:
According to reporters in the Brooklyn courthouse, Mr Pena Nieto had requested $250m before settling on $100m.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-468724140 -
It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.0
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I think it’s three months’ “notice”, if they stand and are defeated. As opposed to potentially three years on the gravy train in the “job” if there’s no electionFoxy said:
Don't they get a payoff if they are defeated, as long as they stand?Sandpit said:
If you were Jared O’Mara, Fiona Onyasana or John Woodcock, would you vote for an election next month?MikeL said:Betfair has a market on VONC numbers.
Total possible vote = 635 (634 voted today).
Govt Notional maj = 13 so if it goes 100% on party lines the result would be:
Yes 311, No 324.
If Govt gets Lady Hermon, it's Yes 310, No 325.
If Flynn is absent (was he the MP absent today?) then Yes get 309.
Makes the Betfair market interesting - 310-319 is favourite but if Flynn can't make it then that band could well lose. And that assumes all Independent Lab vote Yes.0 -
This parliament isn't lasting three years come what may. If they have something else potentially lined up they might as well just get the heck out.Sandpit said:
I think it’s three months’ “notice”, if they stand and are defeated. As opposed to potentially three years on the gravy train in the “job” if there’s no electionFoxy said:
Don't they get a payoff if they are defeated, as long as they stand?Sandpit said:
If you were Jared O’Mara, Fiona Onyasana or John Woodcock, would you vote for an election next month?MikeL said:Betfair has a market on VONC numbers.
Total possible vote = 635 (634 voted today).
Govt Notional maj = 13 so if it goes 100% on party lines the result would be:
Yes 311, No 324.
If Govt gets Lady Hermon, it's Yes 310, No 325.
If Flynn is absent (was he the MP absent today?) then Yes get 309.
Makes the Betfair market interesting - 310-319 is favourite but if Flynn can't make it then that band could well lose. And that assumes all Independent Lab vote Yes.0 -
Suddenly, economic numbers from the EZ are looking nasty. So no deal would hurt.kle4 said:
To a degree that's true. But they can suffer a no deal better than we can, so the failure is less acute.theProle said:
You've left out the group who are both the biggest losers and most responsible for this mess entirely.ydoethur said:
Nobody won. Everybody lost.MyBurningEars said:Really not convinced the ERG won today.
The ERG lost because we now either Remain or leave disastrously.
The Remainer lobby lost because they still have only a slim chance of remaining but have ruled out all other good options.
Theresa May lost - that doesn't need explaining.
Democracy lost - our system is demonstrably broken, producing people who are unfit to govern us and who will deliberately ignore the loudly expressed will of the electorate when it suits them.
And we all lost, for all of the above reasons.
My head is actually aching with sadness and frustration.
Good night.
The EU (particularly the commission) have lost. By their own moronic stupidity of insisting on the backstop, they've actually made the very situation the backstop was intended to prevent the most likely outcome.
Without the backstop, this might have been winnable for May - particularly if the EU had made a big show of junking it in a gesture of good will once it became apparent that it would never pass. It might have taken a few go's, but May and the EU might have squeezed out a deal that scraped through Parliament. Now it's difficult to imagine what they could conceded which might resolve matters.
And given how unwilling to be flexible they have been it is pretty clear they have banked on making it so bad that we remain after all as their strategy. It may yet work.
But, none of this is of any importance, compared to politicians ' egos.
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That was just hollow rhetoric to earn the sponsorship of Paul Dacre. Amazing to think that he once meant something.Jonathan said:If “no deal is better than a bad deal” and this deal was the only way, how can May back a plan B deal. She must by her own logic go for no deal.
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The relevant section of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act is section 1, which isn't in force and only comes into force when appointed by the Government.SunnyJim said:After listening to the politics professor on Sky earlier I still don't understand how remainers force an alternative course to no deal if the government don't bend to their will.
If leaving on March 29th is primary legislation...and it can only be replaced by the same...which can only be introduced by the government...then what is ACTUALLY stopping the clock running down should the government so wish?
So, in the absence of an approved deal, the Government can bring it into force and leave with no deal, or extend/withdraw Article 50 with the EU's consent (very likely to be given if the reason is either a referendum or "hmmm, on reflection let's not"). Remainers gamble (perhaps correctly) that the Government would prefer the latter.
But the crucial point, which several posters on here miss, is that the Government do not need to win a further vote in the Commons to remain past 29 March (except the confidence vote, obviously). They just need EU consent.-1 -
It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.
May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.
[Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]0 -
Yep - Including May’s deal as an option in a referendum question would be utterly bizarre. MPs - both Leave and Remain supporters - have just trashed it as unacceptable.kle4 said:
It was always silly for the deal to be rejected by parliament then included in a referendum. The remainers are in a bind. The deal has no credibility, but if they are being honest then they cannot countenance risking no deal by including it, so what do they include?Chris said:Doesn't the scale of this defeat make it harder to envisage a referendum with this Deal as an option? And I don't see the EU agreeing an extension for a No Deal v Remain referendum.
What they want is to just revoke, possibly under pretence of a delay.
I fail to see how, this government is that incompetent.MaxPB said:
Yes. Significantly.kle4 said:
On present evidence that would be worse how?MaxPB said:
Corbyn becomes PM.kle4 said:
On present evidence that would be a loss how?MaxPB said:
That would be the end of the Tory party.IanB2 said:
Nah. It's quite possible things will look worse and worse until, at the last minute, unity breaks out with the Revocation Bill that is already drafted pushed through the house in the last day or two, leaving the Tories' headbangers isolated.MarqueeMark said:Those cross-party talks: my prediction.
Lots of cross parties. Becoming incandescent as we No Deal Brexit on 29th March.....
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A schism within the Conservative Party. Which is why, given the circumstances you describe, No Deal by accident is more likely than some people believe it to be following tonight's defeat.SunnyJim said:After listening to the politics professor on Sky earlier I still don't understand how remainers force an alternative course to no deal if the government don't bend to their will.
If leaving on March 29th is primary legislation...and it can only be replaced by the same...which can only be introduced by the government...then what is ACTUALLY stopping the clock running down should the government so wish?
It's also why any potential changes to Parliamentary rules that might give backbenchers more power over the legislative timetable would be hugely significant. They could give the Tory Remainers the opportunity to attempt to force a change in the course of Brexit without having to resort immediately to the nuclear option of removing their own Government, and make it quite possible that May would be forced either to offer a referendum, or to resign and try to precipitate a General Election, in order to rescue her Deal.
Does anyone know if there's any more news of Mr Speaker moving in this direction, or well-founded rumour to the effect that he might be so inclined?0 -
Exactly like a totally expected punch in the gut can hit like a punch in the gut being, as it is, a punch in the gut.kle4 said:It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.
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The Montenegro model! The wonderful thing about such a solution is that nobody can stop you using a currency, as the Montenegrins prove. @Pulpstar you have started a movementPulpstar said:
Join the Euro and leave the EU. Kills exchange risk, intrastat reporting and fannying around with boxes on the VAT return. What's not to like ?Anazina said:
Remain in the EU but outside the EuroGIN1138 said:Maybe we should have a second referendum with:
Do Wish To REMAIN In The EU?
Or
Do Wish To REMAIN In The EU?
That would definitely give the elite the result they want.
Or
Remain in the EU and inside the Euro
would be more fun 0 -
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Stark_Dawning said:
That was just hollow rhetoric to earn the sponsorship of Paul Dacre. Amazing to think that he once meant something.Jonathan said:If “no deal is better than a bad deal” and this deal was the only way, how can May back a plan B deal. She must by her own logic go for no deal.
Yes, it’s amazing how the Mail has changed.
The odious Dacre mercifully a detail of history.0 -
That's how I felt about David Cameron's announcing his resignation.kle4 said:It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.
I'm not sure if I've recovered or ever will.0 -
If it goes to a referendum, Deal will have essentially no defenders. That's what's changed since yesterday. Leavers would be voting for a corpse. I wonder also if the heart has gone out of No Deal too. At a certain point things end up in the too difficult basket. Against that, passions are high and the legal default is to leave without a deal.Gardenwalker said:Having mulled this over, I’m beginning to think May might pivot to a referendum.
1. It keeps her deal alive
2. There’s a majority for it in the House
3. If her timing is right she could beat Corbyn which would really rub his face in it
4. It’s one of the few circumstances that the EU would allow an extension for.
5. She has a ready made platform of “sending a message to Parliament”.
6. It’s conclusive. We really would either Leave or Remain following any second vote.
Against that is her no doubt honest belief that a second vote would be divisive.
But what else has she got? Norway requires another painful coalition to come together, and requires her to sacrifice her very favourite red line, control of FOM.
A permanent customs union would not be tolerable to the great majority of Tories. I don’t think she’d ever go for it.
So, my updated predictions:
Norway 30%
Referendum on her Deal 40% (Remain 50%; Leave 50%)
Jeremy’s Perma Customs Union 10%
No Deal 10%
May’s Deal 5%
Revoke 5%
As you see, I still think “Remain” is only 25%, up marginally from yesterday. No Deal is still an outside chance, but is also up slightly.
I have spent the last two and a half years assuming Brexit will go ahead. Now, I am not so sure. I'll need to think about this.0 -
+1Philip_Thompson said:It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.
May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.
[Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]0 -
Stopped clocks, mate.williamglenn said:
I'm sure you accused me of being mad for saying much the same thing a couple of years ago.Casino_Royale said:
They’ve built careers around it.grabcocque said:All those of you who think the ERG would be sad about Parliament forcing us to remain are quite wrong, by the way.
It's a pretty decent outcome for them and that's a big part of the reason they're so supremely relaxed about it.
Why would they want it to end?0 -
It would infuriate the EU, brexiteers (As we use the Euro) and remainers (As we are outside the EU). Admittedly I'm mainly suggesting it as it makes my life a bit easier but thems the breaksAnazina said:
The Montenegro model! The wonderful thing about such a solution is that nobody can stop you using a currency, as the Montenegrins prove. @Pulpstar you have started a movementPulpstar said:
Join the Euro and leave the EU. Kills exchange risk, intrastat reporting and fannying around with boxes on the VAT return. What's not to like ?Anazina said:
Remain in the EU but outside the EuroGIN1138 said:Maybe we should have a second referendum with:
Do Wish To REMAIN In The EU?
Or
Do Wish To REMAIN In The EU?
That would definitely give the elite the result they want.
Or
Remain in the EU and inside the Euro
would be more fun
0 -
You’re right - won’t happen. MPs don’t know what they want but there is a majority who don’t want no deal. They’ll simply vote to revoke.Philip_Thompson said:It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.
May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.
[Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]
The EU know this so don’t need to do anything. They get what they want. Britain stays in but is powerless and no member will ever contemplate leaving again.0 -
You still think we hold all the cards dont youPhilip_Thompson said:It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.
May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.
[Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]
Deary Deary Me how deluded0 -
It's still a pretty revolting paper that excoriates MPs for causing division while, seemingly with no sense of irony, calling them "preening popinjays" on the front page.Anazina said:
Yes, it’s amazing how the Mail has changed.Stark_Dawning said:
That was just hollow rhetoric to earn the sponsorship of Paul Dacre. Amazing to think that he once meant something.Jonathan said:If “no deal is better than a bad deal” and this deal was the only way, how can May back a plan B deal. She must by her own logic go for no deal.
The odious Dacre mercifully a detail of history.0 -
And mine! If you can’t unite the people, why not simply piss all of them off equally!!Pulpstar said:
It would infuriate the EU, brexiteers (As we use the Euro) and remainers (As we are outside the EU). Admittedly I'm mainly suggesting it as it makes my life a bit easier but thems the breaksAnazina said:
The Montenegro model! The wonderful thing about such a solution is that nobody can stop you using a currency, as the Montenegrins prove. @Pulpstar you have started a movementPulpstar said:
Join the Euro and leave the EU. Kills exchange risk, intrastat reporting and fannying around with boxes on the VAT return. What's not to like ?Anazina said:
Remain in the EU but outside the EuroGIN1138 said:Maybe we should have a second referendum with:
Do Wish To REMAIN In The EU?
Or
Do Wish To REMAIN In The EU?
That would definitely give the elite the result they want.
Or
Remain in the EU and inside the Euro
would be more fun0 -
Two problems:Philip_Thompson said:It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.
May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.
[Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]
1) Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar would immediately and unanimously say lol no
2) The deal still wouldn't pass the House of Commons0 -
Good point.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Exactly like a totally expected punch in the gut can hit like a punch in the gut being, as it is, a punch in the gut.kle4 said:It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.
0 -
They vote on the meme that best suits them, not the actuality.Sean_F said:
Suddenly, economic numbers from the EZ are looking nasty. So no deal would hurt.kle4 said:
To a degree that's true. But they can suffer a no deal better than we can, so the failure is less acute.theProle said:
You've left out the group who are both the biggest losers and most responsible for this mess entirely.ydoethur said:
Nobody won. Everybody lost.MyBurningEars said:Really not convinced the ERG won today.
The ERG lost because we now either Remain or leave disastrously.
The Remainer lobby lost because they still have only a slim chance of remaining but have ruled out all other good options.
Theresa May lost - that doesn't need explaining.
Democracy lost - our system is demonstrably broken, producing people who are unfit to govern us and who will deliberately ignore the loudly expressed will of the electorate when it suits them.
And we all lost, for all of the above reasons.
My head is actually aching with sadness and frustration.
Good night.
The EU (particularly the commission) have lost. By their own moronic stupidity of insisting on the backstop, they've actually made the very situation the backstop was intended to prevent the most likely outcome.
Without the backstop, this might have been winnable for May - particularly if the EU had made a big show of junking it in a gesture of good will once it became apparent that it would never pass. It might have taken a few go's, but May and the EU might have squeezed out a deal that scraped through Parliament. Now it's difficult to imagine what they could conceded which might resolve matters.
And given how unwilling to be flexible they have been it is pretty clear they have banked on making it so bad that we remain after all as their strategy. It may yet work.
But, none of this is of any importance, compared to politicians ' egos.0 -
1) Then we no deal and lets see Varadkar put up his hard border.edmundintokyo said:
Two problems:Philip_Thompson said:It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.
May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.
[Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]
1) Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar would immediately and unanimously say lol no
2) The deal still wouldn't pass the House of Commons
2) I think it would. The stated reason why well over one hundred MPs voted no having been dealt with.0 -
Nothing has changedbigjohnowls said:
You still think we hold all the cards dont youPhilip_Thompson said:It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.
May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.
[Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]
Deary Deary Me how deluded 0 -
May should do what Cameron should have done. Revoke or extend Article 50 then set up a commission to choose a preferred Brexit. Then, and only then, call a referendum. Re-running Remain versus unicorn Brexit gets us nowhere.FF43 said:
If it goes to a referendum, Deal will have essentially no defenders. That's what's changed since yesterday. Leavers would be voting for a corpse. I wonder also if the heart has gone out of No Deal too. At a certain point things end up in the too difficult basket. Against that, passions are high and the legal default is to leave without a deal.Gardenwalker said:Having mulled this over, I’m beginning to think May might pivot to a referendum.
1. It keeps her deal alive
2. There’s a majority for it in the House
3. If her timing is right she could beat Corbyn which would really rub his face in it
4. It’s one of the few circumstances that the EU would allow an extension for.
5. She has a ready made platform of “sending a message to Parliament”.
6. It’s conclusive. We really would either Leave or Remain following any second vote.
Against that is her no doubt honest belief that a second vote would be divisive.
But what else has she got? Norway requires another painful coalition to come together, and requires her to sacrifice her very favourite red line, control of FOM.
A permanent customs union would not be tolerable to the great majority of Tories. I don’t think she’d ever go for it.
So, my updated predictions:
Norway 30%
Referendum on her Deal 40% (Remain 50%; Leave 50%)
Jeremy’s Perma Customs Union 10%
No Deal 10%
May’s Deal 5%
Revoke 5%
As you see, I still think “Remain” is only 25%, up marginally from yesterday. No Deal is still an outside chance, but is also up slightly.
I have spent the last two and a half years assuming Brexit will go ahead. Now, I am not so sure. I'll need to think about this.0 -
After the VONC the cabinet ought to get rid of her.0
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FF43 said:
I have spent the last two and a half years assuming Brexit will go ahead. Now, I am not so sure. I'll need to think about this.
You can combine various markets for some implied probabilities:
Leave in March: 18%
Leave after a <6mth extension: 44%
Leave after a >6mth extension or revoke/reinvoke: 13%
Remain: 25%
Personally, I'd have remain quite a bit more likely than that now.
0 -
There are 73 days to March 29. It's pretty much too late at this point. It's like that bit in "Day after Tomorrow" when Dennis Quaid draws a line across the US and says "concentrate on the ones below the line"...Sandpit said:
Hammond needs to start spending some on that £39bn on serious no-deal planning.Scott_P said:
0 -
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I haven’t yet got my head round what this unprecedentedly massive defeat is likely to mean. I’m going to sleep on it.0
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Fair comment.El_Capitano said:
It's still a pretty revolting paper that excoriates MPs for causing division while, seemingly with no sense of irony, calling them "preening popinjays" on the front page.Anazina said:
Yes, it’s amazing how the Mail has changed.Stark_Dawning said:
That was just hollow rhetoric to earn the sponsorship of Paul Dacre. Amazing to think that he once meant something.Jonathan said:If “no deal is better than a bad deal” and this deal was the only way, how can May back a plan B deal. She must by her own logic go for no deal.
The odious Dacre mercifully a detail of history.0 -
Rejoice ! Rejoice ! As the Great She Elephant said.0
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I see Tom Pursglove voted against. Has he resigned his position?0
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If all the ERG had voted for would it still have failed ?AlastairMeeks said:I haven’t yet got my head round what this unprecedentedly massive defeat is likely to mean. I’m going to sleep on it.
0 -
It ensures our trade policy is run by grown-ups. Admittedly grown-ups who we can't vote for, but then in a country which uses FPTP, that won't be a new experience for most of us.AmpfieldAndy said:0 -
Alistair. Did you reverse from your betting position that the UK would Brexit by 29/03/19?AlastairMeeks said:I haven’t yet got my head round what this unprecedentedly massive defeat is likely to mean. I’m going to sleep on it.
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Oh, I'm sure that the emotional wounds will heal with time :-)TheScreamingEagles said:
That's how I felt about David Cameron's announcing his resignation.kle4 said:It's funny how even a totally expected outcome can still hit like a punch in the gut.
I'm not sure if I've recovered or ever will.
David Cameron wrecked his career and half-a-century of UK foreign policy, all for the sake of trying to solve his party's little Farage problem.
If his long-awaited memoirs ultimately reveal that Cameron was, in fact, a closet Eurosceptic all along then his actions might have had some sensible, from that standpoint, rationale to them. But somehow I doubt it.
The man's a fool.0 -
https://twitter.com/rosskempsell/status/1085278300585496582AlastairMeeks said:I see Tom Pursglove voted against. Has he resigned his position?
0 -
You'd have 50 Tory MP's opposing it, regardless.Philip_Thompson said:
1) Then we no deal and lets see Varadkar put up his hard border.edmundintokyo said:
Two problems:Philip_Thompson said:It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.
May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.
[Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]
1) Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar would immediately and unanimously say lol no
2) The deal still wouldn't pass the House of Commons
2) I think it would. The stated reason why well over one hundred MPs voted no having been dealt with.
The Backstop's not the only objection.0 -
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-1 from me.....just to equalise stuff...Sandpit said:
+1Philip_Thompson said:It's not going to happen but if May was brave there is a logically consistent way out of this mess.
May should make a speech tomorrow saying she respects Parliament's decision that it has made, but that the decision of the British people in the referendum's decision must also be made. That at the start of this process that she said that no deal would be better than a bad deal, so with reluctance with Parliament determining this is a bad deal she will now be concentrating on no deal preparations. However if the EU can address Parliament's concerns in a legally binding manner, specifically with regards to the backstop, that an amended deal could be brought back to Parliament. Either way we continue to leave on 29 March 2019.
[Over to you Juncker/Barnier/Varadkar]
this is a very British problem- we need to sort our shit out first-
0 -
He was one of the Tory vice-chairman wasn't he? I seem to recall overhearing on the telly (which I had on as background noise earlier) that he had resigned to vote against.AlastairMeeks said:I see Tom Pursglove voted against. Has he resigned his position?
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Yes. I flagged that I had changed my mind in my predictions at the end of last year.stjohn said:
Alistair. Did you reverse from your betting position that the UK would Brexit by 29/03/19?AlastairMeeks said:I haven’t yet got my head round what this unprecedentedly massive defeat is likely to mean. I’m going to sleep on it.
0
