politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters now think it is even less likely that the UK will leav

You're kidding. What do punters know, eh?

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

Those lines are going to look soooooooooooo like they did on the night of 23rd/24th June 2016 before too much longer.

Long odds Bailey sounded like she was up for a harder Brexit than May lol

About 95% we don't leave then more like. 80% that we do not leave at all

Punters are right. Brexit is collapsing under its own contradictions

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

They are the big losers tonight

Agreed. Soft Brexit or no Brexit after a second referendum.

ydoethur said:

What happened tonight is that - assuming Brexit is a crashing plane - a decision has been made to jettison the parachutes to see if that makes a difference.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gs5ASHyxgRQ

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

They are the big losers tonight

Sadly its loyalists like us. Time to embrace No Deal and get this over with G.

Concanvasser said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

They are the big losers tonight

Sadly its loyalists like us. Time to embrace No Deal and get this over with G.

I can never embrace no deal. It horrifies me

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Those cross-party talks: my prediction.

Lots of cross parties. Becoming incandescent as we No Deal Brexit on 29th March.....

Nah. It's quite possible things will look worse and worse until, at the last minute, unity breaks out with the Revocation Bill that is already drafted pushed through the house in the last day or two, leaving the Tories' headbangers isolated.

That would be the end of the Tory party. The Tory PM will never, ever take that route.

One thing that is not commented on much but the DUP would be content to remain in the EU if they cannot get a no deal

I don’t see how cross party talks are going to break the deadlock. It isn’t like coalition talks where two parties weren’t that far apart on lots of issues. Lib Dem’s are just straight NO and labour are must pass 5 impossible tests.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Concanvasser said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

They are the big losers tonight

Sadly its loyalists like us. Time to embrace No Deal and get this over with G.

I can never embrace no deal. It horrifies me

Anyone on any kind of meds for them/ loved ones/pets should be worried

ydoethur said:

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

Nobody won. Everybody lost.

I won. It would have been even nicer at 200 Ayes but I won’t be greedy.

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

Since they don't actually support Brexit, as opposed to moaning about the EU, I'd say they did okay.

MaxPB said:

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Those cross-party talks: my prediction.

Lots of cross parties. Becoming incandescent as we No Deal Brexit on 29th March.....

Nah. It's quite possible things will look worse and worse until, at the last minute, unity breaks out with the Revocation Bill that is already drafted pushed through the house in the last day or two, leaving the Tories' headbangers isolated.

That would be the end of the Tory party.

On present evidence that would be a loss how?

kle4 said:

MaxPB said:

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Those cross-party talks: my prediction.

Lots of cross parties. Becoming incandescent as we No Deal Brexit on 29th March.....

Nah. It's quite possible things will look worse and worse until, at the last minute, unity breaks out with the Revocation Bill that is already drafted pushed through the house in the last day or two, leaving the Tories' headbangers isolated.

That would be the end of the Tory party.

On present evidence that would be a loss how?

Corn Laws redux.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

One thing that is not commented on much but the DUP would be content to remain in the EU if they cannot get a no deal

Have they actually said that?

My assumption has always been that the DUP (like a lot of Brexit voters) secretly do regret their vote, but pride will stop them ever saying "I was wrong" out loud.

IanB2 said:

MaxPB said:

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Those cross-party talks: my prediction.

Lots of cross parties. Becoming incandescent as we No Deal Brexit on 29th March.....

Nah. It's quite possible things will look worse and worse until, at the last minute, unity breaks out with the Revocation Bill that is already drafted pushed through the house in the last day or two, leaving the Tories' headbangers isolated.

That would be the end of the Tory party. The Tory PM will never, ever take that route.

Listen to Cox's speech, and watch May throughout. She isn't going to be the PM that thrusts us into leaving without a deal.

Whatever, the PM would nod along to a Boris speech if he were still in the Cabinet. The Tory PM will never conspire to kill brexit. It would be the end of the party.

Sean_F said:

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

Since they don't actually support Brexit, as opposed to moaning about the EU, I'd say they did okay.

I think they just enjoy pissing.

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1085285393342390272

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Concanvasser said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

They are the big losers tonight

Sadly its loyalists like us. Time to embrace No Deal and get this over with G.

I can never embrace no deal. It horrifies me

Short term pain for long term gain.

It'll destroy the eurosceptic movement forever.

All those quotes by them that No Deal was Project Fear/That WTO will be awesome will haunt them, worse than Brown's 'We abolished boom and bust'.

If we get no deal and very little of significance to Joe Public actually changes (as is pretty obviously going to be the case), some people (the same people who told us that the country would be a smoking ruin in 24hrs after the vote, and talked of punishment budgets etc.) are going to find themselves wearing an awful lot of egg on their faces!

"To my mind the most significant thing to come out of the catastrophic defeat for the government on its Brexit deal was the statement by Theresa May that she’ll look to consulting with other parties.

"I just wonder if that is paving the way for a second referendum. Clearly the other main parties, LAB after its likely confidence vote failure tomorrow, the SNP, the LDS, PC and the Green are all committed to a second vote."


Depends what this consultation amounts to. If it's this:

"What lovely ideas, let's ask Mr Barnier about them. Oh dear, Mr Barnier says 'Non.' Now, are you sure my Withdrawal Agreement is that bad?"

then still nothing has changed. If, on the other hand, it's this:

"You know, I've seen the light and suddenly that second referendum I've been writing off as a terrible idea for years sounds like the best thing ever!"

then obviously something very important has changed. We can then look forward to another national festival of bloodletting.

A Deal vs Remain referendum would obviously provide the opportunity for May to rescue her WA by taking it to the country, but she has previously insisted over and over and over again that putting us through yet another referendum would be a terrible idea, and it would also result in the Tory Parliamentary party scratching each others' eyes out in public in a three-cornered campaign of unparalleled viciousness (Remainers, May Loyalists, and Hard Brexiteers, with many members of the latter group possibly having started a campaign to boycott the vote or having flounced out of the party altogether to start a rival outfit.)

Moreover, if it gets even as far as a referendum bill going before Parliament then are we sure that the DUP won't try to kill the whole process at birth, in their ongoing attempts to prevent the Deal from being implemented? That way lies a likely General Election, in which the Conservatives would then have a similar set of problems to the above, plus the hopeless task of trying to sound as if they all really believe in a manifesto the central pledge of which is to implement the Prime Minister's Deal.

I don't think she'll go to the country, whether in a referendum or a GE, unless there are absolutely no other options left.

Scott_P said:

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1085285393342390272

Deluded

tyson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Concanvasser said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

They are the big losers tonight

Sadly its loyalists like us. Time to embrace No Deal and get this over with G.

I can never embrace no deal. It horrifies me

Anyone on any kind of meds for them/ loved ones/pets should be worried

Matt Hancock MP says he's got it all under control...

Scott_P said:

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1085285393342390272

Have that Corbynista Class Struggle lot turned up again and broken in?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

One thing that is not commented on much but the DUP would be content to remain in the EU if they cannot get a no deal

The DUP aren’t interested in Brexit per say. They are interested in any political development that creates divergence between NI and Eire, with the former cleaving more closely to GB.

Black_Rook said:

"To my mind the most significant thing to come out of the catastrophic defeat for the government on its Brexit deal was the statement by Theresa May that she’ll look to consulting with other parties.

"I just wonder if that is paving the way for a second referendum. Clearly the other main parties, LAB after its likely confidence vote failure tomorrow, the SNP, the LDS, PC and the Green are all committed to a second vote."


Depends what this consultation amounts to. If it's this:

"What lovely ideas, let's ask Mr Barnier about them. Oh dear, Mr Barnier says 'Non.' Now, are you sure my Withdrawal Agreement is that bad?"

then still nothing has changed. If, on the other hand, it's this:

"You know, I've seen the light and suddenly that second referendum I've been writing off as a terrible idea for years sounds like the best thing ever!"

then obviously something very important has changed. We can then look forward to another national festival of bloodletting.

A Deal vs Remain referendum would obviously provide the opportunity for May to rescue her WA by taking it to the country, but she has previously insisted over and over and over again that putting us through yet another referendum would be a terrible idea, and it would also result in the Tory Parliamentary party scratching each others' eyes out in public in a three-cornered campaign of unparalleled viciousness (Remainers, May Loyalists, and Hard Brexiteers, with many members of the latter group possibly having started a campaign to boycott the vote or having flounced out of the party altogether to start a rival outfit.)

Moreover, if it gets even as far as a referendum bill going before Parliament then are we sure that the DUP won't try to kill the whole process at birth, in their ongoing attempts to prevent the Deal from being implemented? That way lies a likely General Election, in which the Conservatives would then have a similar set of problems to the above, plus the hopeless task of trying to sound as if they all really believe in a manifesto the central pledge of which is to implement the Prime Minister's Deal.

I don't think she'll go to the country, whether in a referendum or a GE, unless there are absolutely no other options left.

I think that's definitely true, we most certainly can't go to the country and campaign on implementing the PM's deal. It really is quite poor.

On topic, I’m heavily on yes on this market.

I don’t think it will happen but it’s great value.

My thought on May’s statement is similar to Mike’s. Long way to go, and plenty of entrenched interests ready to stop it happening, but i think she’ll do pretty much anything which (a) is called Brexit (or gives people a chance to have something called it), (b) might get EU approval (despite Juncker’s ‘non’, I think they’ll be open to a softer Brexit/referendum) and (c) allows her to deliver it before disappearing.

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:

MaxPB said:

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Those cross-party talks: my prediction.

Lots of cross parties. Becoming incandescent as we No Deal Brexit on 29th March.....

Nah. It's quite possible things will look worse and worse until, at the last minute, unity breaks out with the Revocation Bill that is already drafted pushed through the house in the last day or two, leaving the Tories' headbangers isolated.

That would be the end of the Tory party.

On present evidence that would be a loss how?

Corbyn becomes PM.

On present evidence that would be worse how?

Doesn't the scale of this defeat make it harder to envisage a referendum with this Deal as an option? And I don't see the EU agreeing an extension for a No Deal v Remain referendum.

The lost majority didn't make any difference in the end.

https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/1085278477752905728

(And I think Tom Hamilton underestimates the majority required, assuming the extra Tory backbenchers would split in proportion to the vote against)

KLOBUCHAR RUNNING

Alternatively someone's just fucking around

https://twitter.com/maxgmarshall/status/1085277849416806400

edmundintokyo said:

KLOBUCHAR RUNNING

Alternatively someone's just fucking around

https://twitter.com/maxgmarshall/status/1085277849416806400

Build pyramids not walls?

Chris said:

Doesn't the scale of this defeat make it harder to envisage a referendum with this Deal as an option? And I don't see the EU agreeing an extension for a No Deal v Remain referendum.

It was always silly for the deal to be rejected by parliament then included in a referendum. The remainers are in a bind. The deal has no credibility, but if they are being honest then they cannot countenance risking no deal by including it, so what do they include?

What they want is to just revoke, possibly under pretence of a delay.

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:

MaxPB said:

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Those cross-party talks: my prediction.

Lots of cross parties. Becoming incandescent as we No Deal Brexit on 29th March.....

Nah. It's quite possible things will look worse and worse until, at the last minute, unity breaks out with the Revocation Bill that is already drafted pushed through the house in the last day or two, leaving the Tories' headbangers isolated.

That would be the end of the Tory party.

On present evidence that would be a loss how?

Corbyn becomes PM.

On present evidence that would be worse how?

Yes. Significantly.

I fail to see how, this government is that incompetent.

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1085278954649501699

FrancisUrquhart said:

Omnium said:

Scott_P said:

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1085285393342390272

And this story will be nonsense I suspect. JRM whatever he might be just isn't the sort of chap to do that.

He surely can't be a boxed wine man?

We're all, if we're honest, boxed wine men. No barrels in our living rooms mind.

Casino

Agreed. But I can’t find the bloody market!

theProle said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Concanvasser said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

They are the big losers tonight

Sadly its loyalists like us. Time to embrace No Deal and get this over with G.

I can never embrace no deal. It horrifies me

Short term pain for long term gain.

It'll destroy the eurosceptic movement forever.

All those quotes by them that No Deal was Project Fear/That WTO will be awesome will haunt them, worse than Brown's 'We abolished boom and bust'.

If we get no deal and very little of significance to Joe Public actually changes (as is pretty obviously going to be the case), some people (the same people who told us that the country would be a smoking ruin in 24hrs after the vote, and talked of punishment budgets etc.) are going to find themselves wearing an awful lot of egg on their faces!

Twaddle. Project Fear never materialised simply because we had a nice two-year cushion, and the markets convinced themselves that would be enough time for the politicians to address the many and varied problems. This time there will be no such let-off period.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1085278954649501699

Heady days!

Anazina said:

Casino

Agreed. But I can’t find the bloody market!

Betfair exchange > politics > U.K.-Brexit

theProle said:

ydoethur said:

MyBurningEars said:

Really not convinced the ERG won today.

Nobody won. Everybody lost.

The ERG lost because we now either Remain or leave disastrously.

The Remainer lobby lost because they still have only a slim chance of remaining but have ruled out all other good options.

Theresa May lost - that doesn't need explaining.

Democracy lost - our system is demonstrably broken, producing people who are unfit to govern us and who will deliberately ignore the loudly expressed will of the electorate when it suits them.

And we all lost, for all of the above reasons.

My head is actually aching with sadness and frustration.

Good night.

You've left out the group who are both the biggest losers and most responsible for this mess entirely.

The EU (particularly the commission) have lost. By their own moronic stupidity of insisting on the backstop, they've actually made the very situation the backstop was intended to prevent the most likely outcome.
Without the backstop, this might have been winnable for May - particularly if the EU had made a big show of junking it in a gesture of good will once it became apparent that it would never pass. It might have taken a few go's, but May and the EU might have squeezed out a deal that scraped through Parliament. Now it's difficult to imagine what they could conceded which might resolve matters.

To a degree that's true. But they can suffer a no deal better than we can, so the failure is less acute.

And given how unwilling to be flexible they have been it is pretty clear they have banked on making it so bad that we remain after all as their strategy. It may yet work.

Harris_Tweed said:

My thought on May’s statement is similar to Mike’s. Long way to go, and plenty of entrenched interests ready to stop it happening, but i think she’ll do pretty much anything which (a) is called Brexit (or gives people a chance to have something called it), (b) might get EU approval (despite Juncker’s ‘non’, I think they’ll be open to a softer Brexit/referendum) and (c) allows her to deliver it before disappearing.

I believe that the EU might well consent to renegotiation for an Andrex Soft Brexit, but I don't think May's likely to be up for that. She's devoted virtually her entire term in office to constructing this Withdrawal Agreement, and I'd be very surprised if she didn't keep trying to save it. Besides, anything significantly softer than what she has already secured would see her back to having to concede freedom of movement. I stand to be corrected by events, but if it came to the point where the only choices she had left were to rip up her Deal or attempt to save it by putting it to the people, I think she'd go for a vote (either a referendum or a GE, depending on the circumstances.)

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Chris said:

Doesn't the scale of this defeat make it harder to envisage a referendum with this Deal as an option? And I don't see the EU agreeing an extension for a No Deal v Remain referendum.

It was always silly for the deal to be rejected by parliament then included in a referendum. The remainers are in a bind. The deal has no credibility, but if they are being honest then they cannot countenance risking no deal by including it, so what do they include?

What they want is to just revoke, possibly under pretence of a delay.

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:

MaxPB said:

kle4 said:

MaxPB said:

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Those cross-party talks: my prediction.

Lots of cross parties. Becoming incandescent as we No Deal Brexit on 29th March.....

Nah. It's quite possible things will look worse and worse until, at the last minute, unity breaks out with the Revocation Bill that is already drafted pushed through the house in the last day or two, leaving the Tories' headbangers isolated.

That would be the end of the Tory party.

On present evidence that would be a loss how?

Corbyn becomes PM.

On present evidence that would be worse how?

Yes. Significantly.

I fail to see how, this government is that incompetent.

With respect, you are failing to see what is in front of your eyes.

Perhaps you could enlighten me?

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1085278954649501699

And then... THAT manifesto...

GIN1138 said:

IanB2 said:

£ is rising. The market knows what May's big loss means.

Pound rose before the referendum result when they thought it was in the bag for Remain.

And then...

That time they foolishly followed the polls. This time it's a matter of judgement.