politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Northern Ireland polling suggests that a no deal Brexit co

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My son in laws father called today and is really angry over brexit and is demanding a referendum

I have never heard him mention the subject or politics before and he added he would not be able to vote for any party at present

I expect the next 17 days will see a big move to remain and a referendum and brexit last, and only chance, is TM deal, but I doubt it will get past the amendments

My prediction for 2019 is an extension to A50, a referendum and conclusive vote to remain in the EU which will see a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer

If you could cease the frothing for a minute would you be so kind to explain why a vote to Remain would see 'a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer' ?

Big G is not a "frother" - He is quite pragmatic on Brexit to be fair.

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My son in laws father called today and is really angry over brexit and is demanding a referendum

I have never heard him mention the subject or politics before and he added he would not be able to vote for any party at present

I expect the next 17 days will see a big move to remain and a referendum and brexit last, and only chance, is TM deal, but I doubt it will get past the amendments

My prediction for 2019 is an extension to A50, a referendum and conclusive vote to remain in the EU which will see a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer

If you could cease the frothing for a minute would you be so kind to explain why a vote to Remain would see 'a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer' ?

Pent up investment would be unleashed.

Doesn’t that happen in any eventuality?

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My son in laws father called today and is really angry over brexit and is demanding a referendum

I have never heard him mention the subject or politics before and he added he would not be able to vote for any party at present

I expect the next 17 days will see a big move to remain and a referendum and brexit last, and only chance, is TM deal, but I doubt it will get past the amendments

My prediction for 2019 is an extension to A50, a referendum and conclusive vote to remain in the EU which will see a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer

If you could cease the frothing for a minute would you be so kind to explain why a vote to Remain would see 'a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer' ?

Even TM deal saw a boost to the pound, remain would not only see a boost to the pound but would unlock massive investment into the UK

It is the absolute reverse of no deal

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cyclefree said:

This drone story is most odd I must say.

For two days, an airport is shut down. The drone (or drones) is not shot out of the sky but just stops appearing. No individual or group claims responsibility. The operator is not, as far as we know, found and arrested. And yet from one day to the next, the airport is declared safe for flying.

It is most odd.

High tech drone detection and tracking systems have been installed and effectively negates the drone

It is likely the company who have developed this tech will be in line for billions of pounds worth of contracts worldwide

Perhaps it's them operating the drone...

I know you display amazing cynicism but that is a step too far

No, I am not a cynic. I have a healthy optimism concerning the human spirit. It is why I am a Lib Dem and a Remainer. Suspicious cynicism is no way to go through life, it rots the soul.

My comment was meant as a joke! I do not seriously think that drone defence systems are running a protection racket.

williamglenn said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My son in laws father called today and is really angry over brexit and is demanding a referendum

I have never heard him mention the subject or politics before and he added he would not be able to vote for any party at present

I expect the next 17 days will see a big move to remain and a referendum and brexit last, and only chance, is TM deal, but I doubt it will get past the amendments

My prediction for 2019 is an extension to A50, a referendum and conclusive vote to remain in the EU which will see a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer

If you could cease the frothing for a minute would you be so kind to explain why a vote to Remain would see 'a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer' ?

Pent up investment would be unleashed.

And could you put a number to this and tell us which sectors of the economy might benefit ?

Cyclefree said:

This drone story is most odd I must say.

For two days, an airport is shut down. The drone (or drones) is not shot out of the sky but just stops appearing. No individual or group claims responsibility. The operator is not, as far as we know, found and arrested. And yet from one day to the next, the airport is declared safe for flying.

It is most odd.

A friend of mine thinks it was an owl.....

Danny565 said:

Pro_Rata said:

Gatwick reported suspended again

LMAO.

How incompetent are the "powers that be".

Looks like an Air Maroc flight from Casablanca pulled out of final approach a couple of miles east of Gatwick and did several stack loops before diverting to Heathrow, where it is on approach now.

I see the drones are back

Over Gatwick, not the remainers on here :-)

Not looking good for my flight out of Gatwick in a few days.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My son in laws father called today and is really angry over brexit and is demanding a referendum

I have never heard him mention the subject or politics before and he added he would not be able to vote for any party at present

I expect the next 17 days will see a big move to remain and a referendum and brexit last, and only chance, is TM deal, but I doubt it will get past the amendments

My prediction for 2019 is an extension to A50, a referendum and conclusive vote to remain in the EU which will see a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer

If you could cease the frothing for a minute would you be so kind to explain why a vote to Remain would see 'a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer' ?

Even TM deal saw a boost to the pound, remain would not only see a boost to the pound but would unlock massive investment into the UK

It is the absolute reverse of no deal

A 'boost to the pound' would make it harder for both exporting businesses and the the UK tourism industry.

As to 'unlock massive investment' perhaps you could tell us how many billions you think that would be, who would be doing all this extra investing and which sectors of the UK economy would benefit.

The pro-EU types may go a bit misty-eyed at this map:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/988436124963082241

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My son in laws father called today and is really angry over brexit and is demanding a referendum

I have never heard him mention the subject or politics before and he added he would not be able to vote for any party at present

I expect the next 17 days will see a big move to remain and a referendum and brexit last, and only chance, is TM deal, but I doubt it will get past the amendments

My prediction for 2019 is an extension to A50, a referendum and conclusive vote to remain in the EU which will see a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer

If you could cease the frothing for a minute would you be so kind to explain why a vote to Remain would see 'a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer' ?

Even TM deal saw a boost to the pound, remain would not only see a boost to the pound but would unlock massive investment into the UK

It is the absolute reverse of no deal

A 'boost to the pound' would make it harder for both exporting businesses and the the UK tourism industry.

As to 'unlock massive investment' perhaps you could tell us how many billions you think that would be, who would be doing all this extra investing and which sectors of the UK economy would benefit.

Many billions and all sectors

The re-unification of Ireland seems inevitable before too long and therefore it would be preferable if it came about through clear and settled consent and under benign and stable conditions, e.g. not as a consequence of the UK tumbling in disarray out of the European Union. Under those circumstances people on both sides of the border and both sides of the Irish Sea will be stressed and not be thinking straight.

Please parliament, do not let us tumble in disarray out of the European Union.

Given Northern Ireland voters clearly prefer staying in the UK to a United Ireland in the event of May's Deal and EUref2 and Remain but switch to backing a United Ireland in the event of a hard border with the Republic and No Deal then the biggest threats to the Union in Northern Ireland ironically have come from the DUP who both backed Leave unlike the UUP and now prefer No Deal to May's Deal

another_richard said:

The_Taxman said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My son in laws father called today and is really angry over brexit and is demanding a referendum

I have never heard him mention the subject or politics before and he added he would not be able to vote for any party at present

I expect the next 17 days will see a big move to remain and a referendum and brexit last, and only chance, is TM deal, but I doubt it will get past the amendments

My prediction for 2019 is an extension to A50, a referendum and conclusive vote to remain in the EU which will see a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer

If you could cease the frothing for a minute would you be so kind to explain why a vote to Remain would see 'a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer' ?

Big G is not a "frother" - He is quite pragmatic on Brexit to be fair.

BigG froths on the basis of what he has most recently seen or heard.

For example a couple of months back he was in a fury about how the EU had treated May and wanted to Leave under any circumstances.

That's not frothing; it's righteous indignation.

another_richard said:

Does anyone know how consumption levels in NI compare with the UK in general ?

Because consumption per head in the UK is at 114 compared with 93 in the RoI (100 being the EU average):

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumptionperhead/2018

(That's because we over-consume relative to our incomes. And because the Irish are still paying down some of their pre-Eurozone crisis debts.)

Edit: to answer your original question, my guess would be that NI consumption is marginally below the Republic, something in the 80-90 range.

The_Taxman said:

RobD said:

The_Taxman said:

RobD said:

They can do that with or without Brexit.

Yes, but it has more economic and psychological impact if a No Deal Brexit occurs.

Look to recent statements from the Chief officer of the Port of Dover on their inability to function in a hard Brexit. If you have all the ports gridlocked, then the airports are shutdown the economy will be severely impaired.

Given the UKs present relations with Russia it is not inconceivable that this sort of attack on our infrastructure might be co-ordinated with the biggest self-imposed hit to our economy in years.

In my opinion it is more likely to be a non-state actor. I’m not sure what the response would be if it was found to be the Russians. Would be totally unacceptable.

I think it would be a non-state actor but financed by Russia.

The sort of activity that has been going on in Ukraine for instance. Russia have changed the method of war by creating asymmetrical conflicts that seem to be inspired by terrorist type activity.

If it is Russian backed interference in our infrastructure, what can we do other than pile more sanctions on them and increase counter intelligence spending.

The UK is wide open to Russian interference, I hope OFCOM closes RT down as well! I say this in the knowledge that the World service will be shut down in Russia as well. Surely, the World Service should be replaced by something that actively promotes western values instead of being a balanced broadcast. Play them at their own game!

The correct answer, when they murdered people on our soil, was to retaliate in kind and kill a couple of theirs on their home turf. An equal and proportionate response. Eye for eye, tooth for tooth, burn for burn, wound for wound, stripe for stripe.

Once the playground bully knows he has the best of you, he will keep coming back for more.

It sounds extreme, but once you have read Aleksander Dugin and understand how these people operate, it really is the only response. The weaker we look, the more the vultures (or the drones) will circle.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My son in laws father called today and is really angry over brexit and is demanding a referendum

I have never heard him mention the subject or politics before and he added he would not be able to vote for any party at present

I expect the next 17 days will see a big move to remain and a referendum and brexit last, and only chance, is TM deal, but I doubt it will get past the amendments

My prediction for 2019 is an extension to A50, a referendum and conclusive vote to remain in the EU which will see a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer

If you could cease the frothing for a minute would you be so kind to explain why a vote to Remain would see 'a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer' ?

Even TM deal saw a boost to the pound, remain would not only see a boost to the pound but would unlock massive investment into the UK

It is the absolute reverse of no deal

A 'boost to the pound' would make it harder for both exporting businesses and the the UK tourism industry.

As to 'unlock massive investment' perhaps you could tell us how many billions you think that would be, who would be doing all this extra investing and which sectors of the UK economy would benefit.

Many billions and all sectors

Another meaningless comment.

So let me make it easy for you.

How much do you think business investment would increase if we Remain ?

1% ? 2% ? 5% ? 10% ?

SandyRentool said:

viewcode said:

"My son in law's father"

Is there a word for this relationship?

I bet there is a word for it in Punjabi. There are about half a dozen different words for uncle, depending on the specific relationship. I'll have to check when Wor Lass gets home.

Edit - and of course the word 'uncle' is reserved for men who aren't your uncle!

Calling @TSE

If Punjab fails us, what about Punjabi French?

ralphmalph said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

rpjs said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Mind you the Republic would be so badly damaged by a No Deal Brexit that they couldn't afford to take on the additional burden of Northern Ireland. It really would be a Lose-Lose-Lose-Lose scenario: for the UK, the EU generally, the Republic, and NI.

True, but for similar reasons to why many Brexiteers feel Brexit is worth any price, a lot of Irish people would have a similar attitude.

Plus much of the country would qualify for all that lovely Objective 1 EU funding again!

Who is going to pay that out once the EU loses the U.K. contributions. There is already a budget row between contributor nations and recipient over that.

Brexiteers should be able to understand that it is not just about money. Voting for a result that makes people poorer is far from impossible.

Maybe what NI needs is a good dose of the Celtic tiger economy.

Great - but withthe ROI debt burden, EU regulation increasing and focus on “the project” and a shrinking world economy that seems unlikely.

The Irish economy is growing rapidly:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-forecast-to-record-highest-gdp-growth-in-europe-this-year-1.3562629?mode=amp

It is time the subsidy junkies in the North mended their ways.

Isn’t it mostly down to accounting tricks? Like all those airplanes that are registered in Ireland. Not really adding GDP, but they show up in the books.

And ironically increase Ireland's contribution to the EU's budget.

There is a huge investment in new pharmaceutical plants in Ireland. This is real business not just accounting trick

kyf_100 said:

The_Taxman said:

RobD said:

The_Taxman said:

RobD said:

They can do that with or without Brexit.

Yes, but it has more economic and psychological impact if a No Deal Brexit occurs.

Look to recent statements from the Chief officer of the Port of Dover on their inability to function in a hard Brexit. If you have all the ports gridlocked, then the airports are shutdown the economy will be severely impaired.

Given the UKs present relations with Russia it is not inconceivable that this sort of attack on our infrastructure might be co-ordinated with the biggest self-imposed hit to our economy in years.

In my opinion it is more likely to be a non-state actor. I’m not sure what the response would be if it was found to be the Russians. Would be totally unacceptable.

I think it would be a non-state actor but financed by Russia.

The sort of activity that has been going on in Ukraine for instance. Russia have changed the method of war by creating asymmetrical conflicts that seem to be inspired by terrorist type activity.

If it is Russian backed interference in our infrastructure, what can we do other than pile more sanctions on them and increase counter intelligence spending.

The UK is wide open to Russian interference, I hope OFCOM closes RT down as well! I say this in the knowledge that the World service will be shut down in Russia as well. Surely, the World Service should be replaced by something that actively promotes western values instead of being a balanced broadcast. Play them at their own game!

The correct answer, when they murdered people on our soil, was to retaliate in kind and kill a couple of theirs on their home turf. An equal and proportionate response. Eye for eye, tooth for tooth, burn for burn, wound for wound, stripe for stripe.

Once the playground bully knows he has the best of you, he will keep coming back for more.

It sounds extreme, but once you have read Aleksander Dugin and understand how these people operate, it really is the only response. The weaker we look, the more the vultures (or the drones) will circle.

I agree, You have to be tough on them and proportionally respond. It would not surprise me if the Russians are behind these Drones, a dry run for the end of March 2019 when this country will if No Deal occurs be under critical stress on all of our borders.

numbertwelve said:

Morris_Dancer said:

The pro-EU types may go a bit misty-eyed at this map:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/988436124963082241

“North-Land”?!?

They're ignorant of history, they think Northumbria is a quaint name for an English county, not a country.

Ishmael_Z said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

viewcode said:

"My son in law's father"

Is there a word for this relationship?

Please help me as I am not sure of your query

Some relationships are given specific names to make things quicker to write down. For example:

* The child of my father's brother is my "first cousin"
* The child of my first cousin is my "first cousin once removed"
* The grandchild of my grandfather's brother is my "second cousin"
* The child of my second cousin is my "second cousin once removed"

You referred to "your son-in-law's father", who is the father of the man who married your daughter. I was wondering if there was a specific name for that relationship.

I really do not think so and that is why I expressed it the way I did but it would be very interesting if there is a specific name for it

Logic suggests that your son-in-law's father is you-in-law, if you think about it.

Thanks for helping out but not sure

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Twelve, ha. I would've gone for Northumbria, or Greater Yorkshire, but there we are.

Contradiction in terms

numbertwelve said:

Morris_Dancer said:

The pro-EU types may go a bit misty-eyed at this map:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/988436124963082241

“North-Land”?!?

They're not all winners, admittedly. When it has been referenced previously people have questioned if the population divisions shown are accurate. Cool map though.

rcs1000 said:

another_richard said:

Does anyone know how consumption levels in NI compare with the UK in general ?

Because consumption per head in the UK is at 114 compared with 93 in the RoI (100 being the EU average):

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumptionperhead/2018

(That's because we over-consume relative to our incomes. And because the Irish are still paying down some of their pre-Eurozone crisis debts.)

Edit: to answer your original question, my guess would be that NI consumption is marginally below the Republic, something in the 80-90 range.

There's certainly a factor within the consumption figures of which countries are living within or beyond their means.

I'd like to see that calibrated on that basis.

ydoethur said:

numbertwelve said:

Morris_Dancer said:

The pro-EU types may go a bit misty-eyed at this map:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/988436124963082241

“North-Land”?!?

They're ignorant of history, they think Northumbria is a quaint name for an English county, not a country.

I would suggest using Prince Bishopric rather than country (though there might be some argument about the seat of power).
And after all, it is a description not unknown in Europe.

numbertwelve said:

Morris_Dancer said:

The pro-EU types may go a bit misty-eyed at this map:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/988436124963082241

“North-Land”?!?

Norland would not be entirely inappropriate...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norland,_West_Yorkshire

ydoethur said:

hamiltonace said:

ralphmalph said:

RobD said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

rpjs said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Mind you the Republic would be so badly damaged by a No Deal Brexit that they couldn't afford to take on the additional burden of Northern Ireland. It really would be a Lose-Lose-Lose-Lose scenario: for the UK, the EU generally, the Republic, and NI.

True, but for similar reasons to why many Brexiteers feel Brexit is worth any price, a lot of Irish people would have a similar attitude.

Plus much of the country would qualify for all that lovely Objective 1 EU funding again!

Who is going to pay that out once the EU loses the U.K. contributions. There is already a budget row between contributor nations and recipient over that.

Brexiteers should be able to understand that it is not just about money. Voting for a result that makes people poorer is far from impossible.

Maybe what NI needs is a good dose of the Celtic tiger economy.

Great - but withthe ROI debt burden, EU regulation increasing and focus on “the project” and a shrinking world economy that seems unlikely.

The Irish economy is growing rapidly:

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-forecast-to-record-highest-gdp-growth-in-europe-this-year-1.3562629?mode=amp

It is time the subsidy junkies in the North mended their ways.

Isn’t it mostly down to accounting tricks? Like all those airplanes that are registered in Ireland. Not really adding GDP, but they show up in the books.

And ironically increase Ireland's contribution to the EU's budget.

There is a huge investment in new pharmaceutical plants in Ireland. This is real business not just accounting trick

So you're saying the Irish economy is going high on drugs?

And chips*.

Not terrifically healthy, I'll grant.

*Intel's Fab 24, for example.

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

numbertwelve said:

Morris_Dancer said:

The pro-EU types may go a bit misty-eyed at this map:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/988436124963082241

“North-Land”?!?

They're ignorant of history, they think Northumbria is a quaint name for an English county, not a country.

I would suggest using Prince Bishopric rather than country (though there might be some argument about the seat of power).
And after all, it is a description not unknown in Europe.

So Greater Durham then?

Floater said:

Roger said:

Cyclefree said:

This drone story is most odd I must say.

For two days, an airport is shut down. The drone (or drones) is not shot out of the sky but just stops appearing. No individual or group claims responsibility. The operator is not, as far as we know, found and arrested. And yet from one day to the next, the airport is declared safe for flying.

It is most odd.

A friend of mine thinks it was an owl.....

Was it one of Labours free ones?

On a serious note Roger ask your friend which owls have red and blue lights :-)

There is a Red Owl in Madagascar, but I think not named for its onboard lighting system.....

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

numbertwelve said:

Morris_Dancer said:

The pro-EU types may go a bit misty-eyed at this map:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/988436124963082241

“North-Land”?!?

They're ignorant of history, they think Northumbria is a quaint name for an English county, not a country.

I would suggest using Prince Bishopric rather than country (though there might be some argument about the seat of power).
And after all, it is a description not unknown in Europe.

The Prince Bishopric was part of what had been Northumbria, but Northumbria was not the Prince Bishopric.

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

SandyRentool said:

viewcode said:

"My son in law's father"

Is there a word for this relationship?

I bet there is a word for it in Punjabi. There are about half a dozen different words for uncle, depending on the specific relationship. I'll have to check when Wor Lass gets home.

Edit - and of course the word 'uncle' is reserved for men who aren't your uncle!

Calling @TSE

If Punjab fails us, what about Punjabi French?

Kurrum in Punjabi. Samdi in Urdu.

I had to ask my Mum, is a catch all term for the parents of the person your kids have married.

Those seem good words. Can we steal them into English along with (off the top of my head) khaki, pyjamas, etc?

Amazon trying to deliver a package by drone to RH6 0NP, retrying after failing yesterday?

The_Taxman said:

tlg86 said:

Funnily enough, I was thinking about this earlier today. Suppose we do have another referendum - say next October - and by then the economy is in recession. Do remainers promise to end the recession with a vote to remain in the EU?

A No Deal Brexit would in those circumstances be a secondary shock to a recession hit economy. A No Deal Brexit will wreck the economy, if the UK were in recession then it could well turn into a depression in those circumstances as further demand would be deferred by domestic consumers as well as the external shocks associated with Brexit.

I always ask myself would a no deal brexit be worse than the GFC? Seeing as that Nice Mr Carney tells me that the UK banks have piles of cash to fully support the economy, which they did not in the GFC, then my answer is no it will not.

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

numbertwelve said:

Morris_Dancer said:

The pro-EU types may go a bit misty-eyed at this map:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/988436124963082241

“North-Land”?!?

They're ignorant of history, they think Northumbria is a quaint name for an English county, not a country.

I would suggest using Prince Bishopric rather than country (though there might be some argument about the seat of power).
And after all, it is a description not unknown in Europe.

The Prince Bishopric was part of what had been Northumbria, but Northumbria was not the Prince Bishopric.

And Northumbria is not Northland, neither.
As an administrative region, there is much to be said for a Prince Bishopric.

And it would wind up both the royalists and republicans.

And secularists.

ralphmalph said:

The_Taxman said:

tlg86 said:

Funnily enough, I was thinking about this earlier today. Suppose we do have another referendum - say next October - and by then the economy is in recession. Do remainers promise to end the recession with a vote to remain in the EU?

A No Deal Brexit would in those circumstances be a secondary shock to a recession hit economy. A No Deal Brexit will wreck the economy, if the UK were in recession then it could well turn into a depression in those circumstances as further demand would be deferred by domestic consumers as well as the external shocks associated with Brexit.

I always ask myself would a no deal brexit be worse than the GFC? Seeing as that Nice Mr Carney tells me that the UK banks have piles of cash to fully support the economy, which they did not in the GFC, then my answer is no it will not.

I think it could well be of about the same magnitude, although obviously different in terms of sectors most badly hit. But TBH no-one really knows, nothing like this has every been tried before.

The_Taxman said:

tlg86 said:

Funnily enough, I was thinking about this earlier today. Suppose we do have another referendum - say next October - and by then the economy is in recession. Do remainers promise to end the recession with a vote to remain in the EU?

A No Deal Brexit would in those circumstances be a secondary shock to a recession hit economy. A No Deal Brexit will wreck the economy, if the UK were in recession then it could well turn into a depression in those circumstances as further demand would be deferred by domestic consumers as well as the external shocks associated with Brexit.

There's the interesting point arising, that if the Tories deny the people's vote now, there could be a big political price to pay if people decide later on that they really should have been given a say.

SandyRentool said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

numbertwelve said:

Morris_Dancer said:

The pro-EU types may go a bit misty-eyed at this map:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/988436124963082241

“North-Land”?!?

They're ignorant of history, they think Northumbria is a quaint name for an English county, not a country.

I would suggest using Prince Bishopric rather than country (though there might be some argument about the seat of power).
And after all, it is a description not unknown in Europe.

So Greater Durham then?

As I said, there would be dispute about the centre of influence. Pretty sure that York would throw its hat (or mitre) into the ring.
And of course the arrivistes of Leeds and Manchester might want to make a case.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

SandyRentool said:

viewcode said:

"My son in law's father"

Is there a word for this relationship?

I bet there is a word for it in Punjabi. There are about half a dozen different words for uncle, depending on the specific relationship. I'll have to check when Wor Lass gets home.

Edit - and of course the word 'uncle' is reserved for men who aren't your uncle!

Calling @TSE

If Punjab fails us, what about Punjabi French?

Kurrum in Punjabi. Samdi in Urdu.

I had to ask my Mum, is a catch all term for the parents of the person your kids have married.

Those seem good words. Can we steal them into English along with (off the top of my head) khaki, pyjamas, etc?

Sounds like cultural appropriation* to me.

I mean the curry is the national dish of the UK which delighted my mother, so yes you can use this word.

*I hold people who accuse others of cultural appropriation one rung below people who eat pineapple pizza and think Mark Reckless is a good egg.

not_on_fire said:

W

ralphmalph said:

nico67 said:

A united Ireland would be wonderful revenge on the DUP for backing Leave and acting as if they talk for the whole of NI.

It’s clear they want a hard border and are stupidly short sighted .

I had to laugh listening to LBC when a Leave caller rang up moaning they’re going to lose their freedom of movement and had wanted to retire to Spain ! Because of course some Brits think they’re special and stopping FOM was only going to be for EU nationals, all they had to do was wave their blue passport and the world was their oyster !

That’s the thing Leavers don’t understand , normally votes don’t remove other peoples rights but Brexit did and that’s why there’s no chance of the country coming together .

Brits will now be second class citizens of Europe , less rights and freedoms . Thank heavens my parents were born in an EU country and I can remain a proud citizen of the EU .

What a tragedy for those who aren’t that lucky especially younger people who were completely betrayed by many of their grandparents who should be utterly ashamed !

FOM has nothing to do with retiring in the EU. Retiring is and always was at the discretion of the nation state. Usually dependent on having medical insurance and an income large enough so the person would not be a burden on the country.

Whilst technically true, being able to retire in the EU has become a defacto right that will be sorely missed.

Sounds as though it's not a de facto right though, if they are requirements. Likely these requirements won't change after Brexit.

The_Taxman said:

kyf_100 said:

The_Taxman said:

I think it would be a non-state actor but financed by Russia.

The sort of activity that has been going on in Ukraine for instance. Russia have changed the method of war by creating asymmetrical conflicts that seem to be inspired by terrorist type activity.

If it is Russian backed interference in our infrastructure, what can we do other than pile more sanctions on them and increase counter intelligence spending.

The UK is wide open to Russian interference, I hope OFCOM closes RT down as well! I say this in the knowledge that the World service will be shut down in Russia as well. Surely, the World Service should be replaced by something that actively promotes western values instead of being a balanced broadcast. Play them at their own game!

The correct answer, when they murdered people on our soil, was to retaliate in kind and kill a couple of theirs on their home turf. An equal and proportionate response. Eye for eye, tooth for tooth, burn for burn, wound for wound, stripe for stripe.

Once the playground bully knows he has the best of you, he will keep coming back for more.

It sounds extreme, but once you have read Aleksander Dugin and understand how these people operate, it really is the only response. The weaker we look, the more the vultures (or the drones) will circle.

I agree, You have to be tough on them and proportionally respond. It would not surprise me if the Russians are behind these Drones, a dry run for the end of March 2019 when this country will if No Deal occurs be under critical stress on all of our borders.

That is a terrifying thought and all too believeable, since our politicans appear incapable of organising a light afternoon drinking session in a brewery.

Without wishing to trivialise the crimes they've committed, the Russian government are playing a brilliant game.

We don't know the Gatwick Droner is the Russians. It could be eco-nutters, it could be 4chan for heaven's sake. But the Russians have played their cards in such a way as we think it might be them. For good reason - it could actually be them.

I think when the history books are written about this era, it will be said that the cold war didn't end, it merely changed shape.

The Russians have mastered postmodern warfare. Dugin and his disciples are what you get if you cross Baudrillard with Goebbels and give them the nihilistic bent of a sixteen year old who's just discovered Nietzsche and amphetamines.

They are fighting a superior war - muskets against our swords, machine guns against our rifles, tanks against our cavalry.

The history books may look back on this time as a time of war. One which, at present, the west is losing.

Has there ever been a theory more discredited than Fukuyama's?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Cyclefree said:

This drone story is most odd I must say.

For two days, an airport is shut down. The drone (or drones) is not shot out of the sky but just stops appearing. No individual or group claims responsibility. The operator is not, as far as we know, found and arrested. And yet from one day to the next, the airport is declared safe for flying.

It is most odd.

High tech drone detection and tracking systems have been installed and effectively negates the drone

It is likely the company who have developed this tech will be in line for billions of pounds worth of contracts worldwide

Perhaps it's them operating the drone...

I know you display amazing cynicism but that is a step too far

No, I am not a cynic. I have a healthy optimism concerning the human spirit. It is why I am a Lib Dem and a Remainer. Suspicious cynicism is no way to go through life, it rots the soul.

My comment was meant as a joke! I do not seriously think that drone defence systems are running a protection racket.

Maybe I was a bit unfair Dr Foxy and let us all hope that the disaster that is Brexit is resolved to the approval of a majority

May you have a wonderful christmas and may we all have a great 2019 either with the WDA now on offer or we remain

I have drawn the short straw at work so have a fairly busy week of emergency duties. Generally it goes a bit quieter, but yours truly will need to be sober and available all week. As if to grind my nose in it, patients and colleagues keep giving me bottles of wine and whisky, much appreciated in the long term, but cruel in the meantime!

I actually think that despite all the huffing and puffing, Brexit will go with a whimper. Little will change, and both the hopes of the Brexiteers and the fears of the Remainers will be turn out to be greatly exagerrated. Indeed, so little will change that people will wonder what the point was. Probably the populists will be the most disappointed as the distressed towns and coast continue to languish in the doldrums.

All the best to you and yours.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My son in laws father called today and is really angry over brexit and is demanding a referendum

I have never heard him mention the subject or politics before and he added he would not be able to vote for any party at present

I expect the next 17 days will see a big move to remain and a referendum and brexit last, and only chance, is TM deal, but I doubt it will get past the amendments

My prediction for 2019 is an extension to A50, a referendum and conclusive vote to remain in the EU which will see a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer

If you could cease the frothing for a minute would you be so kind to explain why a vote to Remain would see 'a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer' ?

Even TM deal saw a boost to the pound, remain would not only see a boost to the pound but would unlock massive investment into the UK

It is the absolute reverse of no deal

A 'boost to the pound' would make it harder for both exporting businesses and the the UK tourism industry.

As to 'unlock massive investment' perhaps you could tell us how many billions you think that would be, who would be doing all this extra investing and which sectors of the UK economy would benefit.

Many billions and all sectors

Another meaningless comment.

So let me make it easy for you.

How much do you think business investment would increase if we Remain ?

1% ? 2% ? 5% ? 10% ?

10% plus

The biggest annual increase in business investment in recent years was 7% in 2012 and the average since 1997 has only been about 2%.

So with us due a cyclical recession you can forget about 10% let alone 10% plus.

And a 10% increase in business investment would amount to less than 1% of GDP in any case.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

The_Taxman said:

another_richard said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My son in laws father called today and is really angry over brexit and is demanding a referendum

I have never heard him mention the subject or politics before and he added he would not be able to vote for any party at present

I expect the next 17 days will see a big move to remain and a referendum and brexit last, and only chance, is TM deal, but I doubt it will get past the amendments

My prediction for 2019 is an extension to A50, a referendum and conclusive vote to remain in the EU which will see a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer

If you could cease the frothing for a minute would you be so kind to explain why a vote to Remain would see 'a huge uplift in the economy from the early summer' ?

Big G is not a "frother" - He is quite pragmatic on Brexit to be fair.

BigG froths on the basis of what he has most recently seen or heard.

For example a couple of months back he was in a fury about how the EU had treated May and wanted to Leave under any circumstances.

That was a long time ago. I am consistent that I support TM brexit or if not remain

Just because I detect a change in mood and express it does not make it wrong, though it does seem to upset you and I am sorry if it does

I'm not upset so there's no need for you to feel sorry.

But general moods tend to change more slowly than for those who excessively consume Sky News and BBC political programs.

Awb683 said:

If we get a united Ireland after a proper Brexit so be it.

Fair play to you for preferring that, but a lot of the harder Brexiters are seemingly in favour of the UK union, so should be more concerned at its break up.

Just thinking back to the tumultuous year of 1989, the collapse of the Soviet Bloc and as a consequence the re-unification of Germany. Berlin Wall coming down, remember that? An event so globally momentous and joyful that only a concert on the scene, right there and then, by David Hasselhoff could carry the weight of it all.

And it got me wondering. Could we be seeing something similar with Ireland, 30 years later in 2019?

The Emerald Isle at long last intact and whole again, NI waving a cheery goodbye to the UK, embracing the prosperous South as the erstwhile Mother Ship, vandalized beyond repair by an angry and malevolent Hard Brexit, sinks slowly, majestically beneath the waves. Concert this time not Hasselhoff, obviously, but somebody like Ronan Keating or (if something a little more high brow is thought appropriate) Johnny Logan.

Unlikely? Sure. Vanishingly unlikely. But not impossible.

kinabalu said:

Just thinking back to the tumultuous year of 1989, the collapse of the Soviet Bloc and as a consequence the re-unification of Germany. Berlin Wall coming down, remember that? An event so globally momentous and joyful that only a concert on the scene, right there and then, by David Hasselhoff could carry the weight of it all.

And it got me wondering. Could we be seeing something similar with Ireland, 30 years later in 2019?

The Emerald Isle at long last intact and whole again, NI waving a cheery goodbye to the UK, embracing the prosperous South as the erstwhile Mother Ship, vandalized beyond repair by an angry and malevolent Hard Brexit, sinks slowly, majestically beneath the waves. Concert this time not Hasselhoff, obviously, but somebody like Ronan Keating or (if something a little more high brow is thought appropriate) Johnny Logan.

Unlikely? Sure. Vanishingly unlikely. But not impossible.

An analogy seemingly designed to upset those in support of the UK.