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Probably but it’s totally illogical. That’s why it would be better for her to stand down regardless of tonight. That would give her successor the chance to reset the debate and the relationship with the DUP.numbertwelve said:AmpfieldAndy said:May will win her vote of confidence but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is just a capitulation to EU demands and will die when she leaves. Of course, if she survives, will Tories back her when Corbyn slaps in a VNOC which he will surely do sometime tomorrow. Tough to see how they would vote against her today but for her when the question is asked by Corbyn. That’s why May ought to step down regardless.
Any new leader, and it ought to be either Raab or Mordaunt if the Tories don’t have an electoral death wish, can then prepare for no deal and see if the EU in a trade deal. If they aren’t, we can get on with the rest of our lives. Javid and Hunt are both straw men and Gove has no integrity whatsoever. Johnson is too much of a loose cannon and Davis is simply too old.
They will back her in a Commons VONC because to do so otherwise is to vote no confidence in a conservative government.0 -
Losing it surely would have done.AndyJS said:
The danger of postponing the Commons vote was always that it would generate the extra 5 letters needed for tonight's VONC.numbertwelve said:
That was her fateful move, certainly.AlastairMeeks said:With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
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https://twitter.com/AmberRuddHR/status/1072763625771884544
@ampfieldAndy Tweets from which ambitious malcontents would you be looking for signs of 'loyalty'? Hammond must still be walking the dogs.0 -
Alternatively, the *purpose* of postponing the vote. If she really plans to stop the treacle factory catching fire she's going to have to make leave-inclined Tory MPs a whole lot more upset than she has already.AndyJS said:
The danger of postponing the Commons vote was always that it would generate the extra 5 letters needed for tonight's VONC.numbertwelve said:
That was her fateful move, certainly.AlastairMeeks said:With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
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While at 8am I agree with you, I reserve the right to adjust this statement at 8pm if with the benefit of future hindsight May wins the vote convincingly and the ERG are crushed.AlastairMeeks said:With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
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By far their biggest mistake.MarqueeMark said:
We can only hope that the prospect of Unmanaged No Deal is sinking in over in Brussels.numbertwelve said:It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
And more importantly, the rest of the EU capitals.
One eighth of their trade. Swapped for a backstop "nobody wants".0 -
He would have to win the membership first which is unlikely against a No DealerWulfrun_Phil said:
He isn't. It's a secret ballot and he fancies his own chances.dr_spyn said:0 -
A lot of people think it's certain she'll win a majority, and the only question is whether she'd resign if say 100 MPs vote against her. I think it's interesting that someone as experienced as Pienaar thinks she could actually fail to get 158 votes.matt said:
And? Even by the standards of worthless statements, that’s special. Possible and could.AndyJS said:John Pienaar: possible that Theresa May could lose the vote tonight.
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It think it means Theresa May will stay if she wins the VoNC by just one vote. She has no reputation to lose by clinging on. She will probably win.AlastairMeeks said:With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
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The key question is what the remainers will do. From a purely tactical position there are arguments for keeping her in office (particularly with a grudge against her opponents) and for bringing her down. Indeed they might be able to strike some sort of deal.DecrepitJohnL said:
No, I think the PM will lose tonight. It is an anonymous vote, and even if there is no consensus as to who takes over or what should happen next, which there isn't, the aggregate votes of different groups unhappy with Theresa May's Brexit strategy and those who are just terrified of her leading them into a second general election will be enough to see her off.rkrkrk said:She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she?
I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.0 -
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So mid-morning she deploys the fake encore additional protocol on the Irish border.0
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If May wins tonight then Corbyn must submit a VoNC tomorrow as the Tory malcontents will know that the only way they can get rid of her is to bring down the government.0
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Not convinced she's certain to win.Roger said:The ERG ironically are a gift for the Tory Party. Every Party has its lunatic fringe. May is certain to win and this'll introduce them to a public who haven't yet noticed this strange coven. It might serve to silence them if May's victory is big enough
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Even if she wi s tonight, she’ll have a Labour VNOC shortly afterwards now or certainly when she Archie’s nothing on the backstop and the DUP refuse to support her on a VNOC. She should therefore step down regardless if she wants to avoid gifting power to Corbyn. No Tory in their right mind wants her to lead them into another general election campaign.HYUFD said:Well at least with the VONC it comes to a head now. If May wins she is safe for a year through past Brexit and can get on with the job of trying to get the Deal through without being challenged again.
If she loses we may well end up with a No Dealer like Boris, Johnson or Raab and at least we can start to prepare for No Deal however damaging it may be or prepare for PM Corbyn0 -
If it gets to the point where the membership vote a no-dealer into power, thats me and the Tory party and voting done.HYUFD said:
He would have to win the membership first which is unlikely against a No DealerWulfrun_Phil said:
He isn't. It's a secret ballot and he fancies his own chances.dr_spyn said:
Wake me up when there's a sensible moderate centre-right party. Heck, even the Lib dems would be better than the main two right now.
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Hindsight makes sages of us all.AlastairMeeks said:With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
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I for one am relieved we avoided chaos under Ed Miliband.0
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Similar to 1975 when Ted Heath was convinced he'd win due to the public pledges of support he'd received, but the secret nature of the ballot gave MPs the opportunity to get rid of him.DecrepitJohnL said:
No, I think the PM will lose tonight. It is an anonymous vote, and even if there is no consensus as to who takes over or what should happen next, which there isn't, the aggregate votes of different groups unhappy with Theresa May's Brexit strategy and those who are just terrified of her leading them into a second general election will be enough to see her off.rkrkrk said:She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she?
I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.0 -
So bring down the government, all but certain put corbyn into power...Chris_A said:If May wins tonight then Corbyn must submit a VoNC tomorrow as the Tory malcontents will know that the only way they can get rid of her is to bring down the government.
The ERG aren't 'that' crazy.. unless they make the right call that Corbyns a leaver too.0 -
They'd need to either make a deal with the chaos monkey troupe that is the Tory entire membership or create an exceedingly well-organized internal stitch-up. The latter sounds hard to arrange in 12 hours.IanB2 said:
The key question is what the remainers will do. From a purely tactical position there are arguments for keeping her in office (particularly with a grudge against her opponents) and for bringing her down. Indeed they might be able to strike some sort of deal.DecrepitJohnL said:
No, I think the PM will lose tonight. It is an anonymous vote, and even if there is no consensus as to who takes over or what should happen next, which there isn't, the aggregate votes of different groups unhappy with Theresa May's Brexit strategy and those who are just terrified of her leading them into a second general election will be enough to see her off.rkrkrk said:She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she?
I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.
It's TMay or the country burns.0 -
For those relying on the solemn word of Cabinet Ministers who claim to be voting for May in a secret ballot today, just so they're not seen to be wielding the knife....
A reminder that many of those Cabinet Ministers also gave their solemn word that there would be a vote yesterday.0 -
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If May wins the Tory Party's VOC, the govt will face another VOC imminently called by Corbyn and it is likely to lose, due to loss of the DUP's support. Tory MPs will bear this in mind when voting tonight.Roger said:The ERG ironically are a gift for the Tory Party. Every Party has its lunatic fringe. May is certain to win and this'll introduce them to a public who haven't yet noticed this strange coven. It might serve to silence them if May's victory is big enough
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Corbyn could still do it, just to test whether any Tory or DUP MPs are prepared to vote against the government. One or two Tory MPs seem to care more about Brexit than party politics.Slackbladder said:
So bring down the government, all but certain put corbyn into power...Chris_A said:If May wins tonight then Corbyn must submit a VoNC tomorrow as the Tory malcontents will know that the only way they can get rid of her is to bring down the government.
The ERG aren't 'that' crazy.. unless they make the right call that Corbyns a leaver too.0 -
Well quite, this is not about Labour (which has many well documented flaws). This is all about the Tories and how ‘Banging on about Europe’ helped them crash to 165 seats in 1997 and how they never really recovered. This is far worse than that. The Tories have taken the nation to the brink, they are supposed to be in power, responsible for steering the ship, but more closely resemble rats in a sack. They need another 13 years and a split to sort it out.The_Apocalypse said:
I don’t think you need to be particularly sympathetic to the Labour Party at this current time to come to Jonathan’s conclusion.Casino_Royale said:
You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.Jonathan said:After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
Give it a rest.
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Have no confidence in this Old Thread - Vote New Thread. For a Brighter Future.0
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I am sure that is exactly what she will say. She is going to fight and carry on and her dealis the only deal. When she sees the numbers voting against her, hopefully she’ll see sense.Scott_P said:BRACE! BRACE!
https://twitter.com/KatySearle/status/1072765719442612224
Oh, nothing has changed...?0 -
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1072766382335516674 look at the lectern for signs.0
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Caution - if she resigns, there won't be a vote and those free money bets are LOSTScott_P said:BRACE! BRACE!
https://twitter.com/KatySearle/status/1072765719442612224
Oh, nothing has changed...?
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But you forget the other things, full employment, balanced budget, low inflation, low interest rates, thirty year lows in inequality, child poverty and for Tory voters pensioner poverty has all, but been abolished.Jonathan said:
Well quite, this is not about Labour (which has many well documented flaws). This is all about the Tories and how ‘Banging on about Europe’ helped them crash to 165 seats in 1997 and how they never really recovered. This is far worse than that. The Tories have taken the nation to the brink, they are supposed to be in power, responsible for steering the ship, but more closely resemble rats in a sack. They need another 13 years and a split to sort it out.The_Apocalypse said:
I don’t think you need to be particularly sympathetic to the Labour Party at this current time to come to Jonathan’s conclusion.Casino_Royale said:
You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.Jonathan said:After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
Give it a rest.0 -
It's actually harder for the Tory leader to win than in 1975 or 1990, because this time MPs only have to vote against her, rather than specifically for someone who might well replace her on the strength of their showing on the first ballot.AndyJS said:
Similar to 1975 when Ted Heath was convinced he'd win due to the public pledges of support he'd received, but the secret nature of the ballot gave MPs the opportunity to get rid of him.DecrepitJohnL said:
No, I think the PM will lose tonight. It is an anonymous vote, and even if there is no consensus as to who takes over or what should happen next, which there isn't, the aggregate votes of different groups unhappy with Theresa May's Brexit strategy and those who are just terrified of her leading them into a second general election will be enough to see her off.rkrkrk said:She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she?
I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.0 -
I agree with HYUFD: May isn’t going even if she loses by one vote. They are going to have to get at least 158 votes against her, or she is going to carry on her no matter what.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Bets I'm tempted by right now (Ladbrokes):
May wins, 2
Succeeded as PM, Liddington, 21
Thoughts?0 -
So Corbyn stands up and instead of questions says, you know what, see you tomorrow.0
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I don’t think she’s a quitter. She’ll be rallying her troops.IanB2 said:
Caution - if she resigns, there won't be a vote and those free money bets are LOSTScott_P said:BRACE! BRACE!
https://twitter.com/KatySearle/status/1072765719442612224
Oh, nothing has changed...?0 -
And we were worried, how foolish of us.IanB2 said:Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.0 -
The public have seen a very courageous woman fighting her corner against some pretty unpleasant opponents. This can only do the Tory Party enormous damage. All the stereotypes that attach themselves to the Tory Party including misogyny will and downright nastiness will be proven beyond reasonable doubt. There will be a lot of sympathy for her whatever happens. The ignominy will be heaped on her party0
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That didn't require hindsight. It was one of the more baffling things she has done, trying to avoid humiliation...by being humiliated. She lost much dignity whether moment and undermined much of the respect she had still earned.AlastairMeeks said:With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
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What about if she wins by 250+ and it’s the noisy 48 who vote against her. It strengthens her enormously.Roger said:The public have seen a very courageous woman fighting her corner against some pretty unpleasant opponents. This can only do the Tory Party enormous damage. All the stereotypes that attach themselves to the Tory Party including misogyny will and downright nastiness will be proven beyond reasonable doubt. There will be a lot of sympathy for her whatever happens. The ignominy will be heaped on her party
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I find TM SOOOO frustrating but think the alternatives are perhaps even worse. What a mess.0
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NEW THREAD0
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The parallels with Brown are uncanny. It took hi about six months to develop a bunker mentality. She has the habit of just making bad decisions, badly. Cameron and Blair could sell you a total sh*tsandwich, but at least it felt good when they sold it to you.kle4 said:
That didn't require hindsight. It was one of the more baffling things she has done, trying to avoid humiliation...by being humiliated. She lost much dignity whether moment and undermined much of the respect she had still earned.AlastairMeeks said:With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
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Indeed. Avoiding a GE should be easy but is harder than it looks, especially if somehow a deal passes. Cabinet members cannot be relied on to back her. Loyalists like bigG reluctantly see she has to go surely many mps do too.MarqueeMark said:Remember - they are voting to give her an immoveable 12 months.
12 more months of this. With an election fronted by her? In a secret ballot?
We've been told the chief whip was trying to canvass support in cabinet - I think she quits as they equivocate.0 -
Ha, May's odds to win and lose have flipped (1.72 to win now, 2 to lose).
There's 3 for the votes against her to be 100-149, and 3 for 150-199. Tempted to back both with a little.
Backed that, and a little on Davis/Liddington to succeed May as PM.
Edited extra bit: ahem, Lidington*, apparently.0 -
Penny Mordaunt MP
@PennyMordaunt
The Prime Minister has my full support, not least because she has always done what she firmly believes is in the national interest. Our country needs us all to fight for a good deal and prepare for a no deal senario. All eyes and hands should be on that task.
Well the Cabinet seems to be backing her publicly at the moment at least.0 -
NEW THREAD
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That’ll put the kiss of death on May’s chances. No Tory is going to be interested in Toynbee’s views.CarlottaVance said:Polly for Tessie:
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1072767592786526208?s=210 -
Mr Dancer - thanks for the tips!Morris_Dancer said:Ha, May's odds to win and lose have flipped (1.72 to win now, 2 to lose).
There's 3 for the votes against her to be 100-149, and 3 for 150-199. Tempted to back both with a little.
Backed that, and a little on Davis/Liddington to succeed May as PM.
Edited extra bit: ahem, Lidington*, apparently.0 -
I hope not. I hope she makes damn clear that anyone who doesn't back her all the way should vote against, not assume if it is close she will step down, as she has no intention of doing so. Of course we know what her word is worth.rkrkrk said:She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she?
I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.
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Looked sound to me. The Tories are not capable of governing right now.Casino_Royale said:
You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.Jonathan said:After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
Give it a rest.0 -
You presumably jest...But I believe William theorized something like that a year ago.edmundintokyo said:
This is the problem, isn't it? They'll feel obliged to preemptively disavow all possible routes out of the treacle.numbertwelve said:It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
The only person who can bring it off is a really shameless, audacious liar who can stand there telling the Tory members he won't give an inch then cheerfully lead his MPs through the lobby to vote for TMay's deal.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
So Boris Johnson basically.0 -
No seal on the lectern0
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The DUP still will not VNOC the Government and no alternative leader polls better than May and most poll worseAmpfieldAndy said:
Even if she wi s tonight, she’ll have a Labour VNOC shortly afterwards now or certainly when she Archie’s nothing on the backstop and the DUP refuse to support her on a VNOC. She should therefore step down regardless if she wants to avoid gifting power to Corbyn. No Tory in their right mind wants her to lead them into another general election campaign.HYUFD said:Well at least with the VONC it comes to a head now. If May wins she is safe for a year through past Brexit and can get on with the job of trying to get the Deal through without being challenged again.
If she loses we may well end up with a No Dealer like Boris, Johnson or Raab and at least we can start to prepare for No Deal however damaging it may be or prepare for PM Corbyn0 -
Im reminded of comments from mps during the referendum that Cameron would not need to step down. They could say it because they knew he would so could presented loyal. Cabinet members who might want to appeal to some loyalists, waverers or reluctant opponents of may might claim support as they know she'll lose anyway, if that makes sense. The assassins of the 48 even if successful might not get a chance but someone who as loyal but will now do as the party says?dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/AmberRuddHR/status/1072763625771884544
@ampfieldAndy Tweets from which ambitious malcontents would you be looking for signs of 'loyalty'? Hammond must still be walking the dogs.0 -
Yeah. Europe. They are the ones to blame.kle4 said:
Looks resigned - she failed to get support from Europe, so it's the end is how I read it.Scott_P said:https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1072618105241825280
Interesting editorial stance. Again.0
