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  • AndyJS said:

    In hindsight, London 2012 was Peak Britain

    I think it was the early to mid 1990s.
    For Britpop, certainly.

    I’m not up and with it on the latest music but rag’n’boneman really doesn’t cut it for me. Nor why so many young men seemingly want to imitate his beard and haircut.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    In the DM today Javid resembles a freshly shaved testicle with a caricature of David Jason drawn on it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,321

    ydoethur said:

    Donny43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anyway, I just thought I'd check in and see what was happening. Busy time of year for me. Anything exciting happen in the last 72 hours?

    A lot of things have not happened, albeit quite excitingly.
    Are we talking about politics or somebody's sex life here?
    Looks like you're getting demob happy. When do you finish?
    Not for a while, unfortunately, as Henry VIII said to Anne Boleyn.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484

    It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.

    Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.

    We can only hope that the prospect of Unmanaged No Deal is sinking in over in Brussels.

    And more importantly, the rest of the EU capitals.

    One eighth of their trade. Swapped for a backstop "nobody wants".
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,321

    It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.

    Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,401
    Dura_Ace said:

    In the DM today Javid resembles a freshly shaved testicle with a caricature of David Jason drawn on it.

    I’ve had some odd experiences, but I’ve never been able to make a comparison like that!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    Donny43 said:

    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.

    For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.
    What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.

    Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.

    The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvgZkm1xWPE
    It could just be that 99% of music produced since about 1995 has been awful. Most people would rather listen to Abba and the Bee Gees than anything from the last 20 years or so.
    It could be that 99% of music in any era is awful and we just remember the other 1%.
    Nothing new. See "The Cash Pussies - 99% is Shit"

    From 1979.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited December 2018

    It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.

    Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.

    If sufficient numbers of conservatives are willing to accept the end of the party in its present form, with separate radical populist and pragmatist business movements emerging from the ashes, a no-deal could happen.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.

    Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.

    We can only hope that the prospect of Unmanaged No Deal is sinking in over in Brussels.

    And more importantly, the rest of the EU capitals.

    One eighth of their trade. Swapped for a backstop "nobody wants".
    ... and half of our trade
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Dura_Ace said:

    In the DM today Javid resembles a freshly shaved testicle with a caricature of David Jason drawn on it.

    You shave your testicles? I mean, how else could you possibly know that?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484

    Dura_Ace said:

    In the DM today Javid resembles a freshly shaved testicle with a caricature of David Jason drawn on it.

    You shave your testicles? I mean, how else could you possibly know that?
    He shaved somebody elses?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anyway, I just thought I'd check in and see what was happening. Busy time of year for me. Anything exciting happen in the last 72 hours?

    Not much has changed, but they live underwater.
    Are you referring to the pond life known as the Conservative party?
  • ydoethur said:

    It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.

    Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).
    That has for some time been the expected scenario though.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    edited December 2018
    Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.

    His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    edited December 2018

    It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.

    Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.

    If sufficient numbers of conservatives are willing to accept the end of the party in its present form, with separate radical populist and pragmatist business movements emerging from the ashes, a no-deal could happen.
    This is Ragnarok for the Tory Party. The rumblings started in the 1990s. There was always a good chance that the inevitable result of the divide on Europe was an existential war at some point.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    edited December 2018

    In hindsight, London 2012 was Peak Britain

    1945 was Peak Britain. 2012 was a testicle-sized blip on the long downslope.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Anyway, I just thought I'd check in and see what was happening. Busy time of year for me. Anything exciting happen in the last 72 hours?

    Not much has changed, but they live underwater.
    Are you referring to the pond life known as the Conservative party?
    His Busted references are out of control.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,321

    ydoethur said:

    It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.

    Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).
    That has for some time been the expected scenario though.
    Expected, but not certain. There was always the chance of a sudden collapse followed by an election that left no time for a leadership contest. Now that scenario is pretty well played out from the look of it.

    I have to go. Have a good morning.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,280
    ydoethur said:

    It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.

    Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).
    The new Tory leader still has to command the confidence of the house to become PM, right? Depending on who is elected that is not a totally foregone conclusion, though a condensed leadership election is in prospect and that might tip the outcome.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,927
    edited December 2018

    Dura_Ace said:

    In the DM today Javid resembles a freshly shaved testicle with a caricature of David Jason drawn on it.

    You shave your testicles? I mean, how else could you possibly know that?
    He shaved somebody elses?
    Run of the mill naval high jinks, probably.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    IanB2 said:

    Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.

    His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.

    There should not be a members vote at this time. Takes too long.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,401
    IanB2 said:

    Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.

    His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.

    Won’t the badgers move the goalposts?
  • It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.

    Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.

    This is the problem, isn't it? They'll feel obliged to preemptively disavow all possible routes out of the treacle.

    The only person who can bring it off is a really shameless, audacious liar who can stand there telling the Tory members he won't give an inch then cheerfully lead his MPs through the lobby to vote for TMay's deal.

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    So Boris Johnson basically.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    IanB2 said:

    Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.

    He's joined the ranks of the seriously bonkers. For two minutes he sounded credible but then it all came pouring out. Mrs May should leave them to it. There's no way more than a small minority in parliament will follow these people so at least if the public see them full on they'll be laughed at and we might be able to move forward
  • ydoethur said:

    It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.

    Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).
    Also it might be the markets cottoning on to the fact that he seems to be happy to wait until capitalism collapses on its own contradictions before he makes a move.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    edited December 2018
    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.

    His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.

    There should not be a members vote at this time. Takes too long.
    I get the impression they all know that but want somebody else to be the first to say it.

    Edit/ I also got the impression he wants no deal but didn't want to say that either, expecting to get to late January and then shrug and say 'what could we do?'
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    edited December 2018
    #1 There's no time for a member ballot. #2 The Tories are electing a PM not a LotO. #3 They are electing a PM who to become PM has to be acceptable enough to the DUP for the Palace to appoint them and let them be tested by the House.

    If May goes before the 20th when the recess freezes the VoNC process then we are in for a leadership contest more Magic Circle than pure election. I think it favours sitting Cabinet Members.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.

    Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.

    Can you explain the difference a managed no deal and an unmanaged one? Presumably May's putative replacement will do the managing and it will be all right?
  • At last.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.

    Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.

    This is the problem, isn't it? They'll feel obliged to preemptively disavow all possible routes out of the treacle.

    The only person who can bring it off is a really shameless, audacious liar who can stand there telling the Tory members he won't give an inch then cheerfully lead his MPs through the lobby to vote for TMay's deal.

    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    So Boris Johnson basically.
    It could have been him, if he had been prepared to tell it straight as soon as he had accidentally won the referendum. On the Nixon in China argument he could have been the one to spell out the necessity for a staged, soft Brexit and bring everyone together. Yet he has spent most of his time since doing the precise opposite, and made himself unsuitable for the job.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    Jonathan said:

    UCL gave the world Coldplay. Musical herpes.

    For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.
    What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.

    Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.

    The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvgZkm1xWPE
    It could just be that 99% of music produced since about 1995 has been awful. Most people would rather listen to Abba and the Bee Gees than anything from the last 20 years or so.
    And so the old and nostalgic shall take over the earth. Spotify calls to say you’re wrong.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    edited December 2018
    A leadership election transfers ownership of the current crisis firmly to the Conservative party, rather than the government or the wider nation. Political insanity and highly undemocratic to resolve Brexit in this way.



  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    FF43 said:

    It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.

    Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.

    Can you explain the difference a managed no deal and an unmanaged one? Presumably May's putative replacement will do the managing and it will be all right?
    As I understand it "managed" means striking a number of narrow and quick agreements with the EU to sign off some of the easier and/or more significant potential issues - for example continuing to recognise UK pet passports as an example of the former, keeping the planes flying as one of the latter. As far as our trading arrangements are concerned it's the same as no deal.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    BRADY SAYS 48 - BBC live now

    VONC tonight
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2018
    Good morning. BBC: 48 letters reached. Contest tonight between 6pm and 8pm.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:
    Literally being so much wolf crying over this that I'm not sure I believe it.

    Is this confirmed anywhere?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    Scott_P said:
    And tonight she will be get the set - humiliated by her party.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Literally being so much wolf crying over this that I'm not sure I believe it.

    Is this confirmed anywhere?
    It is confirmed now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739
    https://news.sky.com/story/live-may-on-the-brink-of-a-leadership-challenge-11578479
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Literally being so much wolf crying over this that I'm not sure I believe it.

    Is this confirmed anywhere?
    The confirmation is right there in front of you
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    I think we might need a new thread!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Raab C Brexit Off.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:
    Literally being so much wolf crying over this that I'm not sure I believe it.

    Is this confirmed anywhere?
    The confirmation is right there in front of you
    Brady could be crying wolf. I want a signed letter from god or Sir Clive Sinclair. Someone with gravitas that I can trust.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Now is the moment for Corbyn to call a VONC
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I'm doing a comedy bit for people who aren't getting it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    It's on.

    It's on, like Fat Pat's thong...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    15% threshold "exceeded".

    I wonder by how much?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does she need a majority of Tory MPs to win, or just a majority of those who vote (excluding abstainers)?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Cue for loyalty tweets from The Cabinet.

    https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1072759824142737408

    Check which Tory MPs have appointments at the dentist
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    3% return on money today if you're fast and want to back the vnoc going ahead today
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    Jonathan said:

    A leadership election transfers ownership of the current crisis firmly to the Conservative party, rather than the government or the wider nation. Political insanity and highly undemocratic to resolve Brexit in this way.



    You make a good point. Perhaps now the civil war is official it will kill off this incarnation of the Tory Party once and for all. It's a gift for Corbyn because he was getting nowhere. A penalty into an empty net. Can he hit the target?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The rules are different to 1990 when the first round was a contest between candidates rather than a vote of confidence in the leader.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election#First_ballot
  • Deckchairs. Titanic. Fiddling while Rome burns.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    AndyJS said:

    Does she need a majority of Tory MPs to win, or just a majority of those who vote (excluding abstainers)?

    The latter. But the real question is the level at which her credibility as sunk below the point of no return (if indeed we aren't already there).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    3% return on money today if you're fast and want to back the vnoc going ahead today

    £15,000 on offer at 2% on BE
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Does she need a majority of Tory MPs to win, or just a majority of those who vote (excluding abstainers)?

    The latter. But the real question is the level at which her credibility as sunk below the point of no return (if indeed we aren't already there).
    Yes, more than 100 voting against would make things difficult.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    IanB2 said:

    3% return on money today if you're fast and want to back the vnoc going ahead today

    £15,000 on offer at 2% on BE
    At risk if she resigns first?
  • dr_spyn said:
    He isn't. It's a secret ballot and he fancies his own chances.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited December 2018
    The Conservative party is bringing this great country to its knees.

    Be gone - pests!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    edited December 2018
    After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    May will win her vote of confidence but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is just a capitulation to EU demands and will die when she leaves. Of course, if she survives, will Tories back her when Corbyn slaps in a VNOC which he will surely do sometime tomorrow. Tough to see how they would vote against her today but for her when the question is asked by Corbyn. That’s why May ought to step down regardless.

    Any new leader, and it ought to be either Raab or Mordaunt if the Tories don’t have an electoral death wish, can then prepare for no deal and see if the EU want a trade deal. If they aren’t, we can get on with the rest of our lives. Javid and Hunt are both straw men and Gove has no integrity whatsoever. Johnson is too much of a loose cannon and Davis is simply too old.



  • dr_spyn said:

    Cue for loyalty tweets from The Cabinet.

    https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1072759824142737408

    Check which Tory MPs have appointments at the dentist

    Is the middle part Hunt's plea for a coronation? ... the last thing the country needs is a damaging and long leadership contest.
  • Jonathan said:

    After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.

    You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.

    Give it a rest.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    We have 12 hours to come up with a list of Tory MPs who've expressed discontent with Mrs May recently.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Corbyn should call a VONC the moment Brady announces the results of this.
  • Jonathan said:

    After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.

    That so many are prepared to consider the idea of Corbyn as PM shows how bad it is for the Tories.
  • The Conservative party now taking the biggest steps towards its irrevocable split. Just a question of who gets to keep the kids (or perhaps grandparents) now
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    IanB2 said:

    3% return on money today if you're fast and want to back the vnoc going ahead today

    £15,000 on offer at 2% on BE
    At risk if she resigns first?
    Would that void the bet?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,258
    She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she?
    I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    philiph said:

    IanB2 said:

    Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.

    His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.

    There should not be a members vote at this time. Takes too long.
    May’s true awfulness would have become apparent in a leadership election, Brow, no one has an excuse. The Labour Party knew what they were getting.

    Cameron and Blair were both strengthened by the competitive process they endured.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    Jonathan said:

    After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.

    You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.

    Give it a rest.
    This is utterly diabolical and shameful.
  • May will win her vote of confidence but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is just a capitulation to EU demands and will die when she leaves. Of course, if she survives, will Tories back her when Corbyn slaps in a VNOC which he will surely do sometime tomorrow. Tough to see how they would vote against her today but for her when the question is asked by Corbyn. That’s why May ought to step down regardless.

    Any new leader, and it ought to be either Raab or Mordaunt if the Tories don’t have an electoral death wish, can then prepare for no deal and see if the EU in a trade deal. If they aren’t, we can get on with the rest of our lives. Javid and Hunt are both straw men and Gove has no integrity whatsoever. Johnson is too much of a loose cannon and Davis is simply too old.




    They will back her in a Commons VONC because to do so otherwise is to vote no confidence in a conservative government.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    Remember - they are voting to give her an immoveable 12 months.

    12 more months of this. With an election fronted by her? In a secret ballot?
  • Remember how TMay needlessly rubbed George Osborne's face in it when she fired him?

    If she gets through this, imagine how much she's going to enjoy making a deal to cut these bastards out of the loop and abort their beloved unborn baby brexit.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    John Pienaar: possible that Theresa May could lose the vote tonight.
  • With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    Remember - they are voting to give her an immoveable 12 months.

    12 more months of this. With an election fronted by her? In a secret ballot?

    Or the alternative, increasing still further the prospect of no Brexit at all.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited December 2018
    More pantomime from Gove too, I wonder, or will he avoid the humiliation of obsequiousness this time.
    His stance may turn out to be important.
  • Jonathan said:

    After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.

    After 13 years of Labour, with them having crashed the economy a second time, people realised that Labour couldn’t be trusted with the future of the country. In that respect at least “nothing has changed”.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    She has form, she’ll resign just before the vote.
  • Scott_P said:
    They're not hanging around, are they?

    In 1990, it took 6 days between Heseltine announcing his challenge and the first round ballot.
  • With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.

    That was her fateful move, certainly.
  • Jonathan said:

    After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.

    You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.

    Give it a rest.
    I don’t think you need to be particularly sympathetic to the Labour Party at this current time to come to Jonathan’s conclusion.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    dr_spyn said:

    Brokenshire is only in the Cabinet as one of May’s yes-men. No surprise there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,677
    Well at least with the VONC it comes to a head now. If May wins she is safe for a year through past Brexit and can get on with the job of trying to get the Deal through without being challenged again.


    If she loses we may well end up with a No Dealer like Boris, Johnson or Raab and at least we can start to prepare for No Deal however damaging it may be or prepare for PM Corbyn
  • rkrkrk said:

    She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she?
    I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.

    No, I think the PM will lose tonight. It is an anonymous vote, and even if there is no consensus as to who takes over or what should happen next, which there isn't, the aggregate votes of different groups unhappy with Theresa May's Brexit strategy and those who are just terrified of her leading them into a second general election will be enough to see her off.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2018

    With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.

    That was her fateful move, certainly.
    The danger of postponing the Commons vote was always that it would generate the extra 5 letters needed for tonight's VONC.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,677
    edited December 2018

    Remember - they are voting to give her an immoveable 12 months.

    12 more months of this. With an election fronted by her? In a secret ballot?

    Nobody polls significantly better than May and most poll worse
  • With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.

    If she survives this she'll have much more space to respond to the loss of the vote than she would have had if they still had it hanging over her.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Mildly surprised it's been called so quickly.

    Once I've woken up a bit more I'll be checking the odds to see if any of my favoured contenders has shortened and May's odds on winning the vote.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    AndyJS said:

    John Pienaar: possible that Theresa May could lose the vote tonight.

    And? Even by the standards of worthless statements, that’s special. Possible and could.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    The ERG ironically are a gift for the Tory Party. Every Party has its lunatic fringe. May is certain to win and this'll introduce them to a public who haven't yet noticed this strange coven. It might serve to silence them if May's victory is big enough
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Betfair Exchange still taking bets on whether a vote will take place.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.151481378
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,677
    rkrkrk said:

    She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she?
    I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.

    May will not resign even if she only wins by 1 vote, she is just as stubborn as Corbyn who after all lost the confidence of most of his MPs
This discussion has been closed.