I’m not up and with it on the latest music but rag’n’boneman really doesn’t cut it for me. Nor why so many young men seemingly want to imitate his beard and haircut.
It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
We can only hope that the prospect of Unmanaged No Deal is sinking in over in Brussels.
And more importantly, the rest of the EU capitals.
One eighth of their trade. Swapped for a backstop "nobody wants".
It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.
Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).
For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.
What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.
Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.
The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.
It could just be that 99% of music produced since about 1995 has been awful. Most people would rather listen to Abba and the Bee Gees than anything from the last 20 years or so.
It could be that 99% of music in any era is awful and we just remember the other 1%.
It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
If sufficient numbers of conservatives are willing to accept the end of the party in its present form, with separate radical populist and pragmatist business movements emerging from the ashes, a no-deal could happen.
It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
We can only hope that the prospect of Unmanaged No Deal is sinking in over in Brussels.
And more importantly, the rest of the EU capitals.
One eighth of their trade. Swapped for a backstop "nobody wants".
It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.
Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).
That has for some time been the expected scenario though.
Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.
It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
If sufficient numbers of conservatives are willing to accept the end of the party in its present form, with separate radical populist and pragmatist business movements emerging from the ashes, a no-deal could happen.
This is Ragnarok for the Tory Party. The rumblings started in the 1990s. There was always a good chance that the inevitable result of the divide on Europe was an existential war at some point.
It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.
Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).
That has for some time been the expected scenario though.
Expected, but not certain. There was always the chance of a sudden collapse followed by an election that left no time for a leadership contest. Now that scenario is pretty well played out from the look of it.
It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.
Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).
The new Tory leader still has to command the confidence of the house to become PM, right? Depending on who is elected that is not a totally foregone conclusion, though a condensed leadership election is in prospect and that might tip the outcome.
Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.
There should not be a members vote at this time. Takes too long.
Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.
It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
This is the problem, isn't it? They'll feel obliged to preemptively disavow all possible routes out of the treacle.
The only person who can bring it off is a really shameless, audacious liar who can stand there telling the Tory members he won't give an inch then cheerfully lead his MPs through the lobby to vote for TMay's deal.
Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
He's joined the ranks of the seriously bonkers. For two minutes he sounded credible but then it all came pouring out. Mrs May should leave them to it. There's no way more than a small minority in parliament will follow these people so at least if the public see them full on they'll be laughed at and we might be able to move forward
It’s noteworthy Jeremy Corbyn has lengthened markedly for next Prime Minister on Betfair. He last traded at 5.5 yesterday and currently at 6.6.
Presumably on the basis that if May goes anent an election, her successor will be a Tory. There is no way Corbyn could command the confidence of the House without an election (and possibly not with one).
Also it might be the markets cottoning on to the fact that he seems to be happy to wait until capitalism collapses on its own contradictions before he makes a move.
Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.
There should not be a members vote at this time. Takes too long.
I get the impression they all know that but want somebody else to be the first to say it.
Edit/ I also got the impression he wants no deal but didn't want to say that either, expecting to get to late January and then shrug and say 'what could we do?'
#1 There's no time for a member ballot. #2 The Tories are electing a PM not a LotO. #3 They are electing a PM who to become PM has to be acceptable enough to the DUP for the Palace to appoint them and let them be tested by the House.
If May goes before the 20th when the recess freezes the VoNC process then we are in for a leadership contest more Magic Circle than pure election. I think it favours sitting Cabinet Members.
It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
Can you explain the difference a managed no deal and an unmanaged one? Presumably May's putative replacement will do the managing and it will be all right?
It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
This is the problem, isn't it? They'll feel obliged to preemptively disavow all possible routes out of the treacle.
The only person who can bring it off is a really shameless, audacious liar who can stand there telling the Tory members he won't give an inch then cheerfully lead his MPs through the lobby to vote for TMay's deal.
It could have been him, if he had been prepared to tell it straight as soon as he had accidentally won the referendum. On the Nixon in China argument he could have been the one to spell out the necessity for a staged, soft Brexit and bring everyone together. Yet he has spent most of his time since doing the precise opposite, and made himself unsuitable for the job.
For that it should be automatically knocked down 100 positions in the world rankings.
What is this bizarre animus people have developed against Coldplay? It reminds me of past hatreds of the Bee Gees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd, and so on.
Some music is so popular I think some insecure, beta, middle class but low-self esteem people have to express a contempt for it, to virtue signal their good taste (compared to the plebs that like this pap). Of course it is bollocks. 20 years later everyone admits it is bollocks.
The Beegees, Abba, Phil Collins, Pink Floyd have all made great pop music, music whose only sin was its popularity, because it is really good pop music. Coldplay are the same. Viva La Vida is a superb popsong, and I challenge anyone to listen to it and not feel a certain exhilaration.
It could just be that 99% of music produced since about 1995 has been awful. Most people would rather listen to Abba and the Bee Gees than anything from the last 20 years or so.
And so the old and nostalgic shall take over the earth. Spotify calls to say you’re wrong.
A leadership election transfers ownership of the current crisis firmly to the Conservative party, rather than the government or the wider nation. Political insanity and highly undemocratic to resolve Brexit in this way.
It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
Can you explain the difference a managed no deal and an unmanaged one? Presumably May's putative replacement will do the managing and it will be all right?
As I understand it "managed" means striking a number of narrow and quick agreements with the EU to sign off some of the easier and/or more significant potential issues - for example continuing to recognise UK pet passports as an example of the former, keeping the planes flying as one of the latter. As far as our trading arrangements are concerned it's the same as no deal.
A leadership election transfers ownership of the current crisis firmly to the Conservative party, rather than the government or the wider nation. Political insanity and highly undemocratic to resolve Brexit in this way.
You make a good point. Perhaps now the civil war is official it will kill off this incarnation of the Tory Party once and for all. It's a gift for Corbyn because he was getting nowhere. A penalty into an empty net. Can he hit the target?
After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
May will win her vote of confidence but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is just a capitulation to EU demands and will die when she leaves. Of course, if she survives, will Tories back her when Corbyn slaps in a VNOC which he will surely do sometime tomorrow. Tough to see how they would vote against her today but for her when the question is asked by Corbyn. That’s why May ought to step down regardless.
Any new leader, and it ought to be either Raab or Mordaunt if the Tories don’t have an electoral death wish, can then prepare for no deal and see if the EU want a trade deal. If they aren’t, we can get on with the rest of our lives. Javid and Hunt are both straw men and Gove has no integrity whatsoever. Johnson is too much of a loose cannon and Davis is simply too old.
After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.
After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
That so many are prepared to consider the idea of Corbyn as PM shows how bad it is for the Tories.
The Conservative party now taking the biggest steps towards its irrevocable split. Just a question of who gets to keep the kids (or perhaps grandparents) now
Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.
There should not be a members vote at this time. Takes too long.
May’s true awfulness would have become apparent in a leadership election, Brow, no one has an excuse. The Labour Party knew what they were getting.
Cameron and Blair were both strengthened by the competitive process they endured.
After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.
May will win her vote of confidence but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is just a capitulation to EU demands and will die when she leaves. Of course, if she survives, will Tories back her when Corbyn slaps in a VNOC which he will surely do sometime tomorrow. Tough to see how they would vote against her today but for her when the question is asked by Corbyn. That’s why May ought to step down regardless.
Any new leader, and it ought to be either Raab or Mordaunt if the Tories don’t have an electoral death wish, can then prepare for no deal and see if the EU in a trade deal. If they aren’t, we can get on with the rest of our lives. Javid and Hunt are both straw men and Gove has no integrity whatsoever. Johnson is too much of a loose cannon and Davis is simply too old.
They will back her in a Commons VONC because to do so otherwise is to vote no confidence in a conservative government.
Remember how TMay needlessly rubbed George Osborne's face in it when she fired him?
If she gets through this, imagine how much she's going to enjoy making a deal to cut these bastards out of the loop and abort their beloved unborn baby brexit.
After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
After 13 years of Labour, with them having crashed the economy a second time, people realised that Labour couldn’t be trusted with the future of the country. In that respect at least “nothing has changed”.
After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.
Give it a rest.
I don’t think you need to be particularly sympathetic to the Labour Party at this current time to come to Jonathan’s conclusion.
Well at least with the VONC it comes to a head now. If May wins she is safe for a year through past Brexit and can get on with the job of trying to get the Deal through without being challenged again.
If she loses we may well end up with a No Dealer like Boris, Johnson or Raab and at least we can start to prepare for No Deal however damaging it may be or prepare for PM Corbyn
She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she? I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.
No, I think the PM will lose tonight. It is an anonymous vote, and even if there is no consensus as to who takes over or what should happen next, which there isn't, the aggregate votes of different groups unhappy with Theresa May's Brexit strategy and those who are just terrified of her leading them into a second general election will be enough to see her off.
The ERG ironically are a gift for the Tory Party. Every Party has its lunatic fringe. May is certain to win and this'll introduce them to a public who haven't yet noticed this strange coven. It might serve to silence them if May's victory is big enough
Comments
I’m not up and with it on the latest music but rag’n’boneman really doesn’t cut it for me. Nor why so many young men seemingly want to imitate his beard and haircut.
And more importantly, the rest of the EU capitals.
One eighth of their trade. Swapped for a backstop "nobody wants".
From 1979.
His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.
I have to go. Have a good morning.
The only person who can bring it off is a really shameless, audacious liar who can stand there telling the Tory members he won't give an inch then cheerfully lead his MPs through the lobby to vote for TMay's deal.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
So Boris Johnson basically.
https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/1072753342177259520
Edit/ I also got the impression he wants no deal but didn't want to say that either, expecting to get to late January and then shrug and say 'what could we do?'
If May goes before the 20th when the recess freezes the VoNC process then we are in for a leadership contest more Magic Circle than pure election. I think it favours sitting Cabinet Members.
VONC tonight
Is this confirmed anywhere?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739
https://news.sky.com/story/live-may-on-the-brink-of-a-leadership-challenge-11578479
It's on, like Fat Pat's thong...
I wonder by how much?
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1072759824142737408
Check which Tory MPs have appointments at the dentist
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election#First_ballot
Be gone - pests!
Any new leader, and it ought to be either Raab or Mordaunt if the Tories don’t have an electoral death wish, can then prepare for no deal and see if the EU want a trade deal. If they aren’t, we can get on with the rest of our lives. Javid and Hunt are both straw men and Gove has no integrity whatsoever. Johnson is too much of a loose cannon and Davis is simply too old.
Give it a rest.
I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.
Cameron and Blair were both strengthened by the competitive process they endured.
They will back her in a Commons VONC because to do so otherwise is to vote no confidence in a conservative government.
12 more months of this. With an election fronted by her? In a secret ballot?
If she gets through this, imagine how much she's going to enjoy making a deal to cut these bastards out of the loop and abort their beloved unborn baby brexit.
His stance may turn out to be important.
In 1990, it took 6 days between Heseltine announcing his challenge and the first round ballot.
Brokenshire is only in the Cabinet as one of May’s yes-men. No surprise there.
If she loses we may well end up with a No Dealer like Boris, Johnson or Raab and at least we can start to prepare for No Deal however damaging it may be or prepare for PM Corbyn
Mildly surprised it's been called so quickly.
Once I've woken up a bit more I'll be checking the odds to see if any of my favoured contenders has shortened and May's odds on winning the vote.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.151481378