May will win her vote of confidence but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is just a capitulation to EU demands and will die when she leaves. Of course, if she survives, will Tories back her when Corbyn slaps in a VNOC which he will surely do sometime tomorrow. Tough to see how they would vote against her today but for her when the question is asked by Corbyn. That’s why May ought to step down regardless.
Any new leader, and it ought to be either Raab or Mordaunt if the Tories don’t have an electoral death wish, can then prepare for no deal and see if the EU in a trade deal. If they aren’t, we can get on with the rest of our lives. Javid and Hunt are both straw men and Gove has no integrity whatsoever. Johnson is too much of a loose cannon and Davis is simply too old.
They will back her in a Commons VONC because to do so otherwise is to vote no confidence in a conservative government.
Probably but it’s totally illogical. That’s why it would be better for her to stand down regardless of tonight. That would give her successor the chance to reset the debate and the relationship with the DUP.
With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
That was her fateful move, certainly.
The danger of postponing the Commons vote was always that it would generate the extra 5 letters needed for tonight's VONC.
Alternatively, the *purpose* of postponing the vote. If she really plans to stop the treacle factory catching fire she's going to have to make leave-inclined Tory MPs a whole lot more upset than she has already.
With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
While at 8am I agree with you, I reserve the right to adjust this statement at 8pm if with the benefit of future hindsight May wins the vote convincingly and the ERG are crushed.
It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
We can only hope that the prospect of Unmanaged No Deal is sinking in over in Brussels.
And more importantly, the rest of the EU capitals.
One eighth of their trade. Swapped for a backstop "nobody wants".
John Pienaar: possible that Theresa May could lose the vote tonight.
And? Even by the standards of worthless statements, that’s special. Possible and could.
A lot of people think it's certain she'll win a majority, and the only question is whether she'd resign if say 100 MPs vote against her. I think it's interesting that someone as experienced as Pienaar thinks she could actually fail to get 158 votes.
She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she? I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.
No, I think the PM will lose tonight. It is an anonymous vote, and even if there is no consensus as to who takes over or what should happen next, which there isn't, the aggregate votes of different groups unhappy with Theresa May's Brexit strategy and those who are just terrified of her leading them into a second general election will be enough to see her off.
The key question is what the remainers will do. From a purely tactical position there are arguments for keeping her in office (particularly with a grudge against her opponents) and for bringing her down. Indeed they might be able to strike some sort of deal.
If May wins tonight then Corbyn must submit a VoNC tomorrow as the Tory malcontents will know that the only way they can get rid of her is to bring down the government.
The ERG ironically are a gift for the Tory Party. Every Party has its lunatic fringe. May is certain to win and this'll introduce them to a public who haven't yet noticed this strange coven. It might serve to silence them if May's victory is big enough
Well at least with the VONC it comes to a head now. If May wins she is safe for a year through past Brexit and can get on with the job of trying to get the Deal through without being challenged again.
If she loses we may well end up with a No Dealer like Boris, Johnson or Raab and at least we can start to prepare for No Deal however damaging it may be or prepare for PM Corbyn
Even if she wi s tonight, she’ll have a Labour VNOC shortly afterwards now or certainly when she Archie’s nothing on the backstop and the DUP refuse to support her on a VNOC. She should therefore step down regardless if she wants to avoid gifting power to Corbyn. No Tory in their right mind wants her to lead them into another general election campaign.
She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she? I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.
No, I think the PM will lose tonight. It is an anonymous vote, and even if there is no consensus as to who takes over or what should happen next, which there isn't, the aggregate votes of different groups unhappy with Theresa May's Brexit strategy and those who are just terrified of her leading them into a second general election will be enough to see her off.
Similar to 1975 when Ted Heath was convinced he'd win due to the public pledges of support he'd received, but the secret nature of the ballot gave MPs the opportunity to get rid of him.
If May wins tonight then Corbyn must submit a VoNC tomorrow as the Tory malcontents will know that the only way they can get rid of her is to bring down the government.
So bring down the government, all but certain put corbyn into power...
The ERG aren't 'that' crazy.. unless they make the right call that Corbyns a leaver too.
She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she? I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.
No, I think the PM will lose tonight. It is an anonymous vote, and even if there is no consensus as to who takes over or what should happen next, which there isn't, the aggregate votes of different groups unhappy with Theresa May's Brexit strategy and those who are just terrified of her leading them into a second general election will be enough to see her off.
The key question is what the remainers will do. From a purely tactical position there are arguments for keeping her in office (particularly with a grudge against her opponents) and for bringing her down. Indeed they might be able to strike some sort of deal.
They'd need to either make a deal with the chaos monkey troupe that is the Tory entire membership or create an exceedingly well-organized internal stitch-up. The latter sounds hard to arrange in 12 hours.
For those relying on the solemn word of Cabinet Ministers who claim to be voting for May in a secret ballot today, just so they're not seen to be wielding the knife....
A reminder that many of those Cabinet Ministers also gave their solemn word that there would be a vote yesterday.
The ERG ironically are a gift for the Tory Party. Every Party has its lunatic fringe. May is certain to win and this'll introduce them to a public who haven't yet noticed this strange coven. It might serve to silence them if May's victory is big enough
If May wins the Tory Party's VOC, the govt will face another VOC imminently called by Corbyn and it is likely to lose, due to loss of the DUP's support. Tory MPs will bear this in mind when voting tonight.
If May wins tonight then Corbyn must submit a VoNC tomorrow as the Tory malcontents will know that the only way they can get rid of her is to bring down the government.
So bring down the government, all but certain put corbyn into power...
The ERG aren't 'that' crazy.. unless they make the right call that Corbyns a leaver too.
Corbyn could still do it, just to test whether any Tory or DUP MPs are prepared to vote against the government. One or two Tory MPs seem to care more about Brexit than party politics.
After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.
Give it a rest.
I don’t think you need to be particularly sympathetic to the Labour Party at this current time to come to Jonathan’s conclusion.
Well quite, this is not about Labour (which has many well documented flaws). This is all about the Tories and how ‘Banging on about Europe’ helped them crash to 165 seats in 1997 and how they never really recovered. This is far worse than that. The Tories have taken the nation to the brink, they are supposed to be in power, responsible for steering the ship, but more closely resemble rats in a sack. They need another 13 years and a split to sort it out.
I am sure that is exactly what she will say. She is going to fight and carry on and her dealis the only deal. When she sees the numbers voting against her, hopefully she’ll see sense.
After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.
Give it a rest.
I don’t think you need to be particularly sympathetic to the Labour Party at this current time to come to Jonathan’s conclusion.
Well quite, this is not about Labour (which has many well documented flaws). This is all about the Tories and how ‘Banging on about Europe’ helped them crash to 165 seats in 1997 and how they never really recovered. This is far worse than that. The Tories have taken the nation to the brink, they are supposed to be in power, responsible for steering the ship, but more closely resemble rats in a sack. They need another 13 years and a split to sort it out.
But you forget the other things, full employment, balanced budget, low inflation, low interest rates, thirty year lows in inequality, child poverty and for Tory voters pensioner poverty has all, but been abolished.
She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she? I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.
No, I think the PM will lose tonight. It is an anonymous vote, and even if there is no consensus as to who takes over or what should happen next, which there isn't, the aggregate votes of different groups unhappy with Theresa May's Brexit strategy and those who are just terrified of her leading them into a second general election will be enough to see her off.
Similar to 1975 when Ted Heath was convinced he'd win due to the public pledges of support he'd received, but the secret nature of the ballot gave MPs the opportunity to get rid of him.
It's actually harder for the Tory leader to win than in 1975 or 1990, because this time MPs only have to vote against her, rather than specifically for someone who might well replace her on the strength of their showing on the first ballot.
I agree with HYUFD: May isn’t going even if she loses by one vote. They are going to have to get at least 158 votes against her, or she is going to carry on her no matter what.
Patterson on R4 is revealing that they simply do not have a clue.
His proposal is for MPs to identify a new leader by Christmas, with a member ballot concluding mid January, and he maintains the new leader will deliver a completely different deal by the 21st.
The public have seen a very courageous woman fighting her corner against some pretty unpleasant opponents. This can only do the Tory Party enormous damage. All the stereotypes that attach themselves to the Tory Party including misogyny will and downright nastiness will be proven beyond reasonable doubt. There will be a lot of sympathy for her whatever happens. The ignominy will be heaped on her party
With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
That didn't require hindsight. It was one of the more baffling things she has done, trying to avoid humiliation...by being humiliated. She lost much dignity whether moment and undermined much of the respect she had still earned.
The public have seen a very courageous woman fighting her corner against some pretty unpleasant opponents. This can only do the Tory Party enormous damage. All the stereotypes that attach themselves to the Tory Party including misogyny will and downright nastiness will be proven beyond reasonable doubt. There will be a lot of sympathy for her whatever happens. The ignominy will be heaped on her party
What about if she wins by 250+ and it’s the noisy 48 who vote against her. It strengthens her enormously.
With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
That didn't require hindsight. It was one of the more baffling things she has done, trying to avoid humiliation...by being humiliated. She lost much dignity whether moment and undermined much of the respect she had still earned.
The parallels with Brown are uncanny. It took hi about six months to develop a bunker mentality. She has the habit of just making bad decisions, badly. Cameron and Blair could sell you a total sh*tsandwich, but at least it felt good when they sold it to you.
Remember - they are voting to give her an immoveable 12 months.
12 more months of this. With an election fronted by her? In a secret ballot?
Indeed. Avoiding a GE should be easy but is harder than it looks, especially if somehow a deal passes. Cabinet members cannot be relied on to back her. Loyalists like bigG reluctantly see she has to go surely many mps do too.
We've been told the chief whip was trying to canvass support in cabinet - I think she quits as they equivocate.
The Prime Minister has my full support, not least because she has always done what she firmly believes is in the national interest. Our country needs us all to fight for a good deal and prepare for a no deal senario. All eyes and hands should be on that task.
Well the Cabinet seems to be backing her publicly at the moment at least.
She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she? I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.
I hope not. I hope she makes damn clear that anyone who doesn't back her all the way should vote against, not assume if it is close she will step down, as she has no intention of doing so. Of course we know what her word is worth.
After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.
Give it a rest.
Looked sound to me. The Tories are not capable of governing right now.
It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
This is the problem, isn't it? They'll feel obliged to preemptively disavow all possible routes out of the treacle.
The only person who can bring it off is a really shameless, audacious liar who can stand there telling the Tory members he won't give an inch then cheerfully lead his MPs through the lobby to vote for TMay's deal.
Well at least with the VONC it comes to a head now. If May wins she is safe for a year through past Brexit and can get on with the job of trying to get the Deal through without being challenged again.
If she loses we may well end up with a No Dealer like Boris, Johnson or Raab and at least we can start to prepare for No Deal however damaging it may be or prepare for PM Corbyn
Even if she wi s tonight, she’ll have a Labour VNOC shortly afterwards now or certainly when she Archie’s nothing on the backstop and the DUP refuse to support her on a VNOC. She should therefore step down regardless if she wants to avoid gifting power to Corbyn. No Tory in their right mind wants her to lead them into another general election campaign.
The DUP still will not VNOC the Government and no alternative leader polls better than May and most poll worse
@ampfieldAndy Tweets from which ambitious malcontents would you be looking for signs of 'loyalty'? Hammond must still be walking the dogs.
Im reminded of comments from mps during the referendum that Cameron would not need to step down. They could say it because they knew he would so could presented loyal. Cabinet members who might want to appeal to some loyalists, waverers or reluctant opponents of may might claim support as they know she'll lose anyway, if that makes sense. The assassins of the 48 even if successful might not get a chance but someone who as loyal but will now do as the party says?
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@ampfieldAndy Tweets from which ambitious malcontents would you be looking for signs of 'loyalty'? Hammond must still be walking the dogs.
Wake me up when there's a sensible moderate centre-right party. Heck, even the Lib dems would be better than the main two right now.
The ERG aren't 'that' crazy.. unless they make the right call that Corbyns a leaver too.
It's TMay or the country burns.
A reminder that many of those Cabinet Ministers also gave their solemn word that there would be a vote yesterday.
https://twitter.com/KatySearle/status/1072765719442612224
Oh, nothing has changed...?
May wins, 2
Succeeded as PM, Liddington, 21
Thoughts?
https://twitter.com/pollytoynbee/status/1072767592786526208?s=21
We've been told the chief whip was trying to canvass support in cabinet - I think she quits as they equivocate.
There's 3 for the votes against her to be 100-149, and 3 for 150-199. Tempted to back both with a little.
Backed that, and a little on Davis/Liddington to succeed May as PM.
Edited extra bit: ahem, Lidington*, apparently.
Penny Mordaunt MP
@PennyMordaunt
The Prime Minister has my full support, not least because she has always done what she firmly believes is in the national interest. Our country needs us all to fight for a good deal and prepare for a no deal senario. All eyes and hands should be on that task.
Well the Cabinet seems to be backing her publicly at the moment at least.
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