The Tories need an interim leader to agree to try to renegotiate then do managed no deal, as David Herdson suggests. I'm not convinced some of them would not bring down the government before that happens, and it is not what I would want, but there's not enough time for them to posture to the membership about who will stick two fingers up to the EU the most and bring back the great deal in history or else they will surge ahead with no deal.
It is utterly unbelievable that 3 months away from Brexit the Tory Party (or at least a sizeable chunk of the parliamentary party) thinks it’d be a good idea to have a protracted leadership election.
Ye gods, they have totally lost the plot.
It won't be protracted, it'll be a coronation again, or near as dammit.
It had better be, the country does not have time for this crap.
Mrs May tried the Bored of Brexit angle, and look where it got her.
We're not bored of it, we need them to be the opposite of bored - pissing about with internal squabbles rather than focusing on the ticking clock, is a distraction.
But this is about Brexit. Everything is about Brexit. Specifically, this is about May having lost the trust of both leavers and remainers.
I'm not saying don't ditch May. I'm saying there's no time for a pointless pissing contest between the Tories. It's pointless since they won't have unity at the end of it anyway, so better to have a simple, broad strategy under an interim leader, not waste time posturing to the membership and delaying the period in which action can be taken.
A minority government led by an ' unelected ' Hard Brexiter PM driving through a managed No Deal isn't the equilibrium point of this situation. As soon as that happens multiple new crises errupt. It may happen, it may need to happen but it's not an equilibrium point.
A minority government led by an ' unelected ' Hard Brexiter PM driving through a managed No Deal isn't the equilibrium point of this situation. As soon as that happens multiple new crises errupt. It may happen, it may need to happen but it's not an equilibrium point.
I think it's the start of the next phase: the Tory remainers effectively detaching from the forces of Leaverstan and forming their own bloc.
A "managed no deal" would see enormous pressure on the Tory party from business. The modern party won't survive this sort of pressure in its present form.
I think May will still win a confidence vote. Tory remainers don't yet have a better option lined up, and have generally been more skittish about rebellions than the ERGers so far.
If she does win, there is perhaps one roll of the dice she can take to try and get her deal approved - call another election with her deal in the manifesto. Think it would actually be her best chance - Labour are not exactly soaring right now, she could potentially still beat Corbyn in an election.
The Tories need an interim leader to agree to try to renegotiate then do managed no deal, as David Herdson suggests. I'm not convinced some of them would not bring down the government before that happens, and it is not what I would want, but there's not enough time for them to posture to the membership about who will stick two fingers up to the EU the most and bring back the great deal in history or else they will surge ahead with no deal.
In terms of what would be best for the Tories, it needs somebody credible who's prepared to shift position from May's deal to contemplating Hard Brexit if they can't renegotiate (which the EU won't do, of course.) And then they need to win over a healthy majority so the other candidate in the run-off can be persuaded to do a Leadsom. If said opponent were somebody like Rudd - a strong Remainer with very little chance of winning over the membership - then that would also help.
I'll leave everyone to continue to argue over what would actually be best for the country, but clearly whilst that outcome would push us another few yards in the direction of No Deal, it doesn't change the fundamentals. If they won't swallow May's deal then either the Remain majority in Parliament does something radical and works together across party lines to stop this process, or No Deal happens automatically.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
A No Deal is quite likely but highly unlikely to end there. The contradictions of Brexit can only be resolved through crisis. No Deal is a new form of denial.
There's no contradiction of 'Brexit'. The contradiction was our spell as part of the EU, which is mercifully coming to an end.
There is no contradiction, of you don't mind submitting to the Vassal State and / or cutting yourself off from a chunk of your prosperity, job possibilities and the sort of healthcare and welfare that the Leave demographic consume in disproportionate quantities, while you also cut yourself off from Europe. The tiny majority thought they were "taking back control" and Brexit wouldn't cost them anything, however .
I think May will still win a confidence vote. Tory remainers don't yet have a better option lined up, and have generally been more skittish about rebellions than the ERGers so far.
If she does win, there is perhaps one roll of the dice she can take to try and get her deal approved - call another election with her deal in the manifesto. Think it would actually be her best chance - Labour are not exactly soaring right now, she could potentially still beat Corbyn in an election.
I think yesterday sank her - if she put them through weeks of discussion then formal debate when it was clear it would not pass, then waited until the last minute to pull it, what respect does she have for them and what should they have for her?
As for an election, accepting that if she said there should be one (and Corbyn would no doubt agree), there's no way all the Tory MPs agree to stand on a manifesto commitment of the deal. You have the ERG lot for whom it is anathema, the waverers who know the public don't like the deal, and they would face Labour promising magic unicorns in that they would promise remainers they might remain, and leavers that they would get a better deal.
I think May will still win a confidence vote. Tory remainers don't yet have a better option lined up, and have generally been more skittish about rebellions than the ERGers so far.
If she does win, there is perhaps one roll of the dice she can take to try and get her deal approved - call another election with her deal in the manifesto. Think it would actually be her best chance - Labour are not exactly soaring right now, she could potentially still beat Corbyn in an election.
There is a live risk of an election within the next 12 months. A win on the VONC means she is bomb-proof during that 12 months. MPs have to consider May's record in 2017 and on delivering Brexit and ask themselves "Do you want to give her your support - and risk having Theresa May fronting another election?"
I think May will still win a confidence vote. Tory remainers don't yet have a better option lined up, and have generally been more skittish about rebellions than the ERGers so far.
If she does win, there is perhaps one roll of the dice she can take to try and get her deal approved - call another election with her deal in the manifesto. Think it would actually be her best chance - Labour are not exactly soaring right now, she could potentially still beat Corbyn in an election.
I think yesterday sank her - if she put them through weeks of discussion then formal debate when it was clear it would not pass, then waited until the last minute to pull it, what respect does she have for them and what should they have for her?
As for an election, accepting that if she said there should be one (and Corbyn would no doubt agree), there's no way all the Tory MPs agree to stand on a manifesto commitment of the deal. You have the ERG lot for whom it is anathema, the waverers who know the public don't like the deal, and they would face Labour promising magic unicorns in that they would promise remainers they might remain, and leavers that they would get a better deal.
Yesterday revealed May was useless. Hitherto there was some doubt. Maybe she had a plan. There was something clever we just couldn’t see.
As it turned out there was no plan. There was denial, incompetence and finally panic and skin saving.
Not good. She has to go. She has I’m afraid let the country down badly by occupying a key role at the key moment.
I think May will still win a confidence vote. Tory remainers don't yet have a better option lined up, and have generally been more skittish about rebellions than the ERGers so far.
If she does win, there is perhaps one roll of the dice she can take to try and get her deal approved - call another election with her deal in the manifesto. Think it would actually be her best chance - Labour are not exactly soaring right now, she could potentially still beat Corbyn in an election.
There is a live risk of an election within the next 12 months. A win on the VONC means she is bomb-proof during that 12 months. MPs have to consider May's record in 2017 and on delivering Brexit and ask themselves "Do you want to give her your support - and risk having Theresa May fronting another election?"
Comedians invited to perform at a benefit gig at Soas University of London have been sent a “behavioural agreement” that forbids them from tackling any topic in a way that is not “respectful and kind”.
There is no way that the Tories pivot to No Deal and the party doesn't implode.
And yet there's nowhere else for them to turn. Unless PM Raab is a lot more convincing pleading with the EU to revisit things than May is, they and their members are too leavery to revoke A50 and too frightened of remaining to propose a referendum, and too opposed to the deal to include that in such a vote even if they were not, which gets them to the same place - the Tories are very shortly to be the no deal party. Labour will attempt to get a GE, and if that fails they will simply keep saying they would have gotten a better deal or switch to remain.
Either the government is brought down and the Tories lose a resulting election when Corbyn cannot get anything through, or we do no deal and they limp on as long as they can, praying it is not that bad after all.
I think May will still win a confidence vote. Tory remainers don't yet have a better option lined up, and have generally been more skittish about rebellions than the ERGers so far.
If she does win, there is perhaps one roll of the dice she can take to try and get her deal approved - call another election with her deal in the manifesto. Think it would actually be her best chance - Labour are not exactly soaring right now, she could potentially still beat Corbyn in an election.
This course of action pre-supposes firstly that the Conservative Party wouldn't simply collapse if the Hard Leavers were made to go out and campaign for the Deal; and secondly that, even if they did, their commitments would be remotely credible. And what if we then get a similar result to 2017? Most of the time between now and March would've been wasted, and Parliament would be more desperate and in a worse mess than before.
Parliament created this situation, it should fix it - not try to palm the mess off on the people, who pay them to deal with dilemmas like this. They can submit themselves to judgement at the ballot box after they've made their minds up and plotted a course for Brexit, not before.
I have never declared my vote because I disliked intensely the way people insulted each other on here as Remoaners / xenophobes etc. It added nothing to the discussion and was most unseemly and I wanted to have nothing to do with it.
If a 2nd referendum was held now and Remain was an option I would probably now vote Remain, not because I'm a eurofanatic but because those in favour of Brexit have had their chance and been shown utterly wanting. And because the geopolitical situation has IMO become more dangerous and uncertain in the last two years and this is no time for Britain to isolate itself.
FPT I'd like to understand what sort of planning for No Deal Floater's company has done. A true "No Deal" or a No Deal where lots of mini-deals are done to keep planes flying etc. Or what?
And in what sector?
I had hoped that a deal of some kind would be reached. It now looks as if it won't be. The Tories are being utterly irresponsible and self-indulgent in the way they are approaching this issue, as are Labour. Taking risks with our country, with our relationship with our closest neighbours, with our reputation in this way is unforgivable.
I hope that it won't be a disaster. I really do. But I fear it will and that what comes after will be even worse.
Ah well. Time to read a good book and listen to some decent music.
And condolences to the French - yet again - for what has happened in Strasbourg.
Another PB Liverpool fan who does not come from Merseyside
*puts hand up* One here as well.
Glory grabbing is strong on PB.
DavidL supports Man Utd.
He’s Scottish.
I have supported Man Utd since 1954 but then I was born within 5 miles of the ground
Sadly, you are in a minority. It would seem that most PBers are glory grabbers, choosing big clubs over their hometown club.
My town's football ground was demolished when I was a boy and there was no team for years to support in any case. Should I have supported clubs in the professional leagues who were 40+ miles away? That's not hometown.
Also, who cares? Yes I support Liverpool for glory grabbing reasons. Picked them as a child, never wavered.
Goodness, what question on earth is Dominic Raab the answer to?
Dominic Raab has had a successful career as secretary of state for Brexit, lasting a full four months, during which time he had many successes. Unlike his predecessor he met his negotiating partner on a couple of occasions. He was also responsible for some highly sophisticated No Deal planning, which involved informing exporters and the like that they were on their own, giving them the information and confidence they needed to get out of the UK as quickly as possible.
Evening all. I feel sorry for May. She has tried and clearly failed to unite the party behind a compromise Brexit deal. I don’t see how installing a new true believer leader is going unite the party or get a better deal. They will go for no deal and the moderate MPs will not stand for that. Corbyn PM here we come.
I think May will still win a confidence vote. Tory remainers don't yet have a better option lined up, and have generally been more skittish about rebellions than the ERGers so far.
If she does win, there is perhaps one roll of the dice she can take to try and get her deal approved - call another election with her deal in the manifesto. Think it would actually be her best chance - Labour are not exactly soaring right now, she could potentially still beat Corbyn in an election.
I think yesterday sank her - if she put them through weeks of discussion then formal debate when it was clear it would not pass, then waited until the last minute to pull it, what respect does she have for them and what should they have for her?
As for an election, accepting that if she said there should be one (and Corbyn would no doubt agree), there's no way all the Tory MPs agree to stand on a manifesto commitment of the deal. You have the ERG lot for whom it is anathema, the waverers who know the public don't like the deal, and they would face Labour promising magic unicorns in that they would promise remainers they might remain, and leavers that they would get a better deal.
Yesterday revealed May was useless. Hitherto there was some doubt. Maybe she had a plan. There was something clever we just couldn’t see.
As it turned out there was no plan. There was denial, incompetence and finally panic and skin saving.
Not good. She has to go. She has I’m afraid let the country down badly by occupying a key role at the key moment.
I don’t think any leader could have done any better (post-election, I think we all agree she was useless at GE2017) to be frank. She has tried to please everyone and in the end has pleased no-one, but this was always going to be the sort of deal that would have been on the table that at least went some way to ending free movement.
I have a lot of sympathy for her actually. I think she is a fundamentally decent person and she has tried her best. I think the nail in the coffin was the derision that welcomed her deal in parliament, she is facing lots of hostile factions and unreasonable people and pragmatism has lost out.
I doubt history will be incredibly kind, but I do think it will note that she was faced with an impossible situation in the past year or so.
Another PB Liverpool fan who does not come from Merseyside
*puts hand up* One here as well.
Glory grabbing is strong on PB.
DavidL supports Man Utd.
He’s Scottish.
I have supported Man Utd since 1954 but then I was born within 5 miles of the ground
Sadly, you are in a minority. It would seem that most PBers are glory grabbers, choosing big clubs over their hometown club.
My town's football ground was demolished when I was a boy and there was no team for years to support in any case. Should I have supported clubs in the professional leagues who were 40+ miles away? That's not hometown.
Also, who cares?
Yep. I care. Smaller clubs will die out if people just support the Big Five, regardless of where they come from.
No one comments on how this catastrophe is quietly building a majority for Remain.
Yep - no deal Brexit will finish off the Tories I fear. It is incredibly unpopular and (fortunately) people don't vote on the basis of Brexit alone..... another referendum especially if backed by the HoC and largely supported by Labour, on the back of TM's deal failing, is their only get out of jail....
Another PB Liverpool fan who does not come from Merseyside
*puts hand up* One here as well.
Glory grabbing is strong on PB.
DavidL supports Man Utd.
He’s Scottish.
I have supported Man Utd since 1954 but then I was born within 5 miles of the ground
Sadly, you are in a minority. It would seem that most PBers are glory grabbers, choosing big clubs over their hometown club.
My town's football ground was demolished when I was a boy and there was no team for years to support in any case. Should I have supported clubs in the professional leagues who were 40+ miles away? That's not hometown.
Also, who cares?
Yep. I care. Smaller clubs will die out if people just support the Big Five, regardless of where they come from.
But glory grabbing is the norm nowadays.
Then i repeat my question - there was no club in my hometown, not in any type of league, who in your estimation should I be expected to reasonably support? How far away is acceptable?
Theresa May has had her chips. I expect the time is coming soon enough when we will look back fondly on the halcyon days of her premiership.
The way we're going that will be in about 6 weeks time.
I’ve pointed out ever since the referendum result that Britain has entered a long term serious decline. It was one of those inflexion point moments. It has a long way to run yet.
I think May will still win a confidence vote. Tory remainers don't yet have a better option lined up, and have generally been more skittish about rebellions than the ERGers so far.
If she does win, there is perhaps one roll of the dice she can take to try and get her deal approved - call another election with her deal in the manifesto. Think it would actually be her best chance - Labour are not exactly soaring right now, she could potentially still beat Corbyn in an election.
I think yesterday sank her - if she put them through weeks of discussion then formal debate when it was clear it would not pass, then waited until the last minute to pull it, what respect does she have for them and what should they have for her?
As for an election, accepting that if she said there should be one (and Corbyn would no doubt agree), there's no way all the Tory MPs agree to stand on a manifesto commitment of the deal. You have the ERG lot for whom it is anathema, the waverers who know the public don't like the deal, and they would face Labour promising magic unicorns in that they would promise remainers they might remain, and leavers that they would get a better deal.
Yesterday revealed May was useless. Hitherto there was some doubt. Maybe she had a plan. There was something clever we just couldn’t see.
As it turned out there was no plan. There was denial, incompetence and finally panic and skin saving.
Not good. She has to go. She has I’m afraid let the country down badly by occupying a key role at the key moment.
I don’t think any leader could have done any better (post-election, I think we all agree she was useless at GE2017) to be frank. She has tried to please everyone and in the end has pleased no-one, but this was always going to be the sort of deal that would have been on the table that at least went some way to ending free movement.
I have a lot of sympathy for her actually. I think she is a fundamentally decent person and she has tried her best. I think the nail in the coffin was the derision that welcomed her deal in parliament, she is facing lots of hostile factions and unreasonable people and pragmatism has lost out.
I doubt history will be incredibly kind, but I do think it will note that she was faced with an impossible situation in the past year or so.
She has taken our nation to the brink. Her duty and steadfastness was actually ego and intransigence.
Comedians invited to perform at a benefit gig at Soas University of London have been sent a “behavioural agreement” that forbids them from tackling any topic in a way that is not “respectful and kind”.
SAD....also, Islamophobia gets a name check, as does anti-religion or anti-atheism, but not antisemitism.
And WTF is "ableism" ?
My wife went to SOAS. She's on the Left, but even she found it unbearable. It has been a hyena's nest of vile and lunatic politics for decades. They should close it down, demolish it, and sow the vacant ground with salt.
I think May will still win a confidence vote. Tory remainers don't yet have a better option lined up, and have generally been more skittish about rebellions than the ERGers so far.
If she does win, there is perhaps one roll of the dice she can take to try and get her deal approved - call another election with her deal in the manifesto. Think it would actually be her best chance - Labour are not exactly soaring right now, she could potentially still beat Corbyn in an election.
I think yesterday sank her - if she put them through weeks of discussion then formal debate when it was clear it would not pass, then waited until the last minute to pull it, what respect does she have for them and what should they have for her?
As for an election, accepting that if she said there should be one (and Corbyn would no doubt agree), there's no way all the Tory MPs agree to stand on a manifesto commitment of the deal. You have the ERG lot for whom it is anathema, the waverers who know the public don't like the deal, and they would face Labour promising magic unicorns in that they would promise remainers they might remain, and leavers that they would get a better deal.
Yesterday revealed May was useless. Hitherto there was some doubt. Maybe she had a plan. There was something clever we just couldn’t see.
As it turned out there was no plan. There was denial, incompetence and finally panic and skin saving.
Not good. She has to go. She has I’m afraid let the country down badly by occupying a key role at the key moment.
It's just possible she feels she needs to take the VoNC while she can win it. There was talk a couple of weeks back about her supporters writing letters to give her a year's grace.
But I think she's miscalculated if that's the plan; she looks cowardly and out of her depth this week, in a way she never quite has before; it feels that in facing the HoC and walking away she can't keep the show on the road any more.
I'm not as convinced as others that there will be a hard as nails Leaver elected who will plough on with May or May plus plus plus. But let's see.
Comments
https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1072613241744957440?s=21
Just how I like my Tories.
Followed, immediately by them VONCing Raab.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ucJ6RPez06s
@Cyclefree voted Remain I think.
If she does win, there is perhaps one roll of the dice she can take to try and get her deal approved - call another election with her deal in the manifesto. Think it would actually be her best chance - Labour are not exactly soaring right now, she could potentially still beat Corbyn in an election.
Interesting editorial stance. Again.
I cannot wait.
I'll leave everyone to continue to argue over what would actually be best for the country, but clearly whilst that outcome would push us another few yards in the direction of No Deal, it doesn't change the fundamentals. If they won't swallow May's deal then either the Remain majority in Parliament does something radical and works together across party lines to stop this process, or No Deal happens automatically.
Hence the crisis.
As for an election, accepting that if she said there should be one (and Corbyn would no doubt agree), there's no way all the Tory MPs agree to stand on a manifesto commitment of the deal. You have the ERG lot for whom it is anathema, the waverers who know the public don't like the deal, and they would face Labour promising magic unicorns in that they would promise remainers they might remain, and leavers that they would get a better deal.
She loses on that question alone.
NOR is only used with NEITHER.
As it turned out there was no plan. There was denial, incompetence and finally panic and skin saving.
Not good. She has to go. She has I’m afraid let the country down badly by occupying a key role at the key moment.
DavidL supports Man Utd.
He’s Scottish.
https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/dec/11/comedians-asked-to-sign-behavioural-agreement-for-soas-gig
SAD....also, Islamophobia gets a name check, as does anti-religion or anti-atheism, but not antisemitism.
And WTF is "ableism" ?
Either the government is brought down and the Tories lose a resulting election when Corbyn cannot get anything through, or we do no deal and they limp on as long as they can, praying it is not that bad after all.
Parliament created this situation, it should fix it - not try to palm the mess off on the people, who pay them to deal with dilemmas like this. They can submit themselves to judgement at the ballot box after they've made their minds up and plotted a course for Brexit, not before.
If a 2nd referendum was held now and Remain was an option I would probably now vote Remain, not because I'm a eurofanatic but because those in favour of Brexit have had their chance and been shown utterly wanting. And because the geopolitical situation has IMO become more dangerous and uncertain in the last two years and this is no time for Britain to isolate itself.
FPT I'd like to understand what sort of planning for No Deal Floater's company has done. A true "No Deal" or a No Deal where lots of mini-deals are done to keep planes flying etc. Or what?
And in what sector?
I had hoped that a deal of some kind would be reached. It now looks as if it won't be. The Tories are being utterly irresponsible and self-indulgent in the way they are approaching this issue, as are Labour. Taking risks with our country, with our relationship with our closest neighbours, with our reputation in this way is unforgivable.
I hope that it won't be a disaster. I really do. But I fear it will and that what comes after will be even worse.
Ah well. Time to read a good book and listen to some decent music.
And condolences to the French - yet again - for what has happened in Strasbourg.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1072620579352653825
Also, who cares? Yes I support Liverpool for glory grabbing reasons. Picked them as a child, never wavered.
I have a lot of sympathy for her actually. I think she is a fundamentally decent person and she has tried her best. I think the nail in the coffin was the derision that welcomed her deal in parliament, she is facing lots of hostile factions and unreasonable people and pragmatism has lost out.
I doubt history will be incredibly kind, but I do think it will note that she was faced with an impossible situation in the past year or so.
But glory grabbing is the norm nowadays.
Laugh? I nearly died.
I be slightly surprised if he makes strenuous efforts to prevent it.
Even more hilarious? He meets with the PM to tell her he's resigning as Chairman of the 1922 Committee, he wanted her to be the first to know.
But I think she's miscalculated if that's the plan; she looks cowardly and out of her depth this week, in a way she never quite has before; it feels that in facing the HoC and walking away she can't keep the show on the road any more.
I'm not as convinced as others that there will be a hard as nails Leaver elected who will plough on with May or May plus plus plus. But let's see.